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DOE OSTI2020

Leveraging Machine Learning Capabilities for the Characterization of Irradiated Uranium: A Case Study of Analysis Methods for Nuclear Safeguards and Nuclear Forensics

Nondestructively determining the initial enrichment of irradiated uranium is a complex and laborious multivariable problem due to the presence of fission products. This work demonstrates the capabilities of machine learning to analyze gamma-ray spectral data to determine initial enrichment without knowledge of the decay time of the sample. The approach developed is agnostic to the particular scenario and is applicable to a wide variety of applications in nuclear forensics and nuclear safeguards. We irradiated 5 mg uranium standard reference materials at discrete enrichment values ranging from 0.02% to 97% 235 U (weight percent) in UT Austin’s Nuclear Engineering Teaching Laboratory TRIGA Mark II 1.1 MW research reactor, allowed each to decay for 8 hours, and then measured each sample via gamma-ray spectrometry for 50 hours post-irradiation yielding 1,400 individual gamma-ray spectra discretized into 8,192 energy bins. We then trained decision trees models to analyze individual gamma-ray spectra and estimate the associated initial enrichment without knowledge of the time since end of irradiation. We evaluated the performance of the models with a reserved test set not used for training or calibrating the model. A decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 2.3% (weight percent 235 U). Next, we implemented a principal component analysis pre-processing routine of the gamma-ray spectrometry data to reduce the dimensionality of the dataset from 8,192 channels in the spectrum to 10 principal components while retaining over 99% of the inherent variance in the data. Decision tree models constructed with these data demonstrated decreased mean absolute error in enrichment determination, reduced computational time, and decreased complexity. A single decision tree model constructed with this procedure achieved a mean absolute error in initial enrichment determination of 0.05% (weight percent 235 U). Furthermore, we analyzed these models with learning curves to ensure that overfitting did not occur. The capabilities provided by these models can be naturally extended to other application-focused measurements in the fields of nuclear safeguards, nuclear forensics, and nuclear non-proliferation.

Drescher, Adam↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Visual Analytics Approach for Correlation, Classification, and Regression Analysis

New approaches that combine the strengths of humans and machines are necessary to equip analysts with the proper tools for exploring today s increasing complex, multivariate data sets. In this paper, a visual data mining framework, called the Multidimensional Data eXplorer (MDX), is described that addresses the challenges of today s data by combining automated statistical analytics with a highly interactive parallel coordinates based canvas. In addition to several intuitive interaction capabilities, this framework offers a rich set of graphical statistical indicators, interactive regression analysis, visual correlation mining, automated axis arrangements and filtering, and data classification techniques. This chapter provides a detailed description of the system as well as a discussion of key design aspects and critical feedback from domain experts.

Steed, Chad A↗

DOE OSTI2024

Accelerating Multivariate Functional Approximation Computation with Domain Decomposition Techniques⋆

Modeling large datasets through Multivariate Functional Approximations (MFA) provide an elegant way to handle many visualization and scientific analysis workflows. The process necessitates scalable data partitioning methods to compute MFA representations efficiently without compromising the accuracy or continuity of the reconstructed solution. We propose a domain -decomposed method for computing the MFA with B -spline bases, which reduces the total work per task and uses a restricted Additive Schwarz (RAS) method to converge the control point data degrees -of -freedom along subdomain boundaries. We provide an in-depth analysis of the parallel approach with domain decomposition solvers, aiming to minimize local subdomain error residuals and recover high -order continuity at subdomain interfaces with appropriate choices of knot overlaps. The communication cost, determined by the overlap regions in the RAS implementation, is optimized to recover the numerical error profile of the single subdomain case. Our proposed method stands in contrast to previous methods, which typically only recover either C 0 or at best C 1 continuity for arbitrary B -spline degree expansions, or those that require post -processing to blend discontinuities in the reconstructed data. We demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach using analytical and real -world datasets in 1D, 2D, and 3D through both strong and weak scaling studies. The performance results indicate that the overall cost of computing the approximation is directly proportional to the underlying nearest -neighbor communication implementation, and is only weakly dependent on the overlap region size that determines the size of the messages. This finding underscores the efficiency and scalability of our proposed method, making it a promising solution for handling large datasets in scientific workflows.

additive Schwarz solvers↗

NASA NTRS2002

Functional Groups Based on Leaf Physiology: Are they Spatially and Temporally Robust?

The functional grouping hypothesis, which suggests that complexity in function can be simplified by grouping species with similar responses, was tested in the Florida scrub habitat. Functional groups were identified based on how species in fire maintained FL scrub function in terms of carbon, water and nitrogen dynamics. The suite of physiologic parameters measured to determine function included both instantaneous gas exchange measurements obtained from photosynthetic light response curves and integrated measures of function. Using cluster analysis, five distinct physiologically-based functional groups were identified. Using non-parametric multivariate analyses, it was determined that these five groupings were not altered by plot differences or by the three different management regimes; prescribed burn, mechanically treated and burn, and fire-suppressed. The physiological groupings also remained robust between the two years 1999 and 2000. In order for these groupings to be of use for scaling ecosystem processes, there needs to be an easy-to-measure morphological indicator of function. Life form classifications were able to depict the physiological groupings more adequately than either specific leaf area or leaf thickness. THe ability of life forms to depict the groupings was improved by separating the parasitic Ximenia americana from the shrub category.

Foster, Tammy E.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) Measurement of Uranium in Molten Salt

In this current study, the molten salt aerosol–laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) system was used to measure the uranium (U) content in a ternary UCl 3 –LiCl–KCl salt to investigate and assess a near real-time analytical approach for material safeguards and accountability. Experiments were conducted using five different U concentrations to determine the analytical figures of merit for the system with respect to U. In the analysis, three U lines were used to develop univariate calibration curves at the 367.01 nm, 385.96 nm, and 387.10 nm lines. The 367.01 nm line had the lowest limit of detection (LOD) of 0.065 wt% U. The 385.96 nm line had the best root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) of 0.20 wt% U. In addition to the univariate calibration approach, a multivariate partial least squares (PLS) model was developed to further analyze the data. Using partial least squares (PLS) modeling, an RMSECV of 0.085 wt% U was determined. The RMSECV from the multivariate approach was significantly better than the univariate case and the PLS model is recommended for future LIBS analysis. Overall, the aerosol-LIBS system performed well in monitoring the U concentration and it is expected that the system could be used to quantitatively determine the U compositions within the normal operational concentrations of U in pyroprocessing molten salts.

Williams, Ammon↗

DOE OSTI2026

Visualization for Insight and Data Analysis in Energy Research

This talk explores how advanced visualization technologies are transforming analytical reasoning and knowledge discovery in energy research, drawing on recent work at the National Laboratory of the Rockies' Computational Science Center. Through a series of scientific case studies, we demonstrate how immersive and high-resolution visualization environments enable scientists and engineers to identify previously unseen patterns and features - insights that often remain hidden in traditional desktop-based analysis. By embedding richer information into interactive analytics tools, these approaches support the exploration of complex, multivariate parameter spaces, where interaction itself catalyzes understanding. Beyond capability, we emphasize the critical role of visualization design grounded in perception and cognition, showing how visual encodings directly influence analytical outcomes. Spanning applications from materials science to integrated energy systems, these visualization approaches accelerate innovation and improve decision-making by enabling deeper, more reliable insight into increasingly complex energy data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

NASA NTRS1992

LinkWinds: An Approach to Visual Data Analysis

The Linked Windows Interactive Data System (LinkWinds) is a prototype visual data exploration and analysis system resulting from a NASA/JPL program of research into graphical methods for rapidly accessing, displaying and analyzing large multivariate multidisciplinary datasets. It is an integrated multi-application execution environment allowing the dynamic interconnection of multiple windows containing visual displays and/or controls through a data-linking paradigm. This paradigm, which results in a system much like a graphical spreadsheet, is not only a powerful method for organizing large amounts of data for analysis, but provides a highly intuitive, easy to learn user interface on top of the traditional graphical user interface.

Jacobson, Allan S.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Astronaut Preflight Cardiovascular Variables Associated with Vascular Compliance are Highly Correlated with Post-Flight Eye Outcome Measures in the Visual Impairment Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) Syndrome Following Long Duration Spaceflight

The detection of the first VIIP case occurred in 2005, and adequate eye outcome measures were available for 31 (67.4%) of the 46 long duration US crewmembers who had flown on the ISS since its first crewed mission in 2000. Therefore, this analysis is limited to a subgroup (22 males and 9 females). A "cardiovascular profile" for each astronaut was compiled by examining twelve individual parameters; eleven of these were preflight variables: systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, body mass index, percentage body fat, LDL, HDL, triglycerides, use of anti‐lipid medication, fasting serum glucose, and maximal oxygen uptake in ml/kg. Each of these variables was averaged across three preflight annual physical exams. Astronaut age prior to the long duration mission, and inflight salt intake was also included in the analysis. The group of cardiovascular variables for each crew member was compared with seven VIIP eye outcome variables collected during the immediate post‐flight period: anterior-posterior axial length of the globe measured by ultrasound and optical biometry; optic nerve sheath diameter, optic nerve diameter, and optic nerve to sheath ratio‐ each measured by ultrasound and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), intraocular pressure (IOP), change in manifest refraction, mean retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) on optical coherence tomography (OCT), and RNFL of the inferior and superior retinal quadrants. Since most of the VIIP eye outcome measures were added sequentially beginning in 2005, as knowledge of the syndrome improved, data were unavailable for 22.0% of the outcome measurements. To address the missing data, we employed multivariate multiple imputation techniques with predictive mean matching methods to accumulate 200 separate imputed datasets for analysis. We were able to impute data for the 22.0% of missing VIIP eye outcomes. We then applied Rubin's rules for collapsing the statistical results across our 200 multiply imputed data sets to assess the canonical correlation between the eye outcomes and the twelve astronaut cardiovascular variables available for all 31 subjects. Results: A highly significant canonical correlation was observed among the canonical solutions (p<.00001), with an average best canonical correlation of.97. The results suggest a strong association between astronauts' measures of cardiovascular health and the seven eye outcomes of the VIIP syndrome used in this analysis. Furthermore, the "joint test" revealed a significant difference in cardiovascular profile between male and female astronauts (Prob > F = 0.00001). Overall, female astronauts demonstrated a significantly healthier cardiovascular status. Individually, the female astronauts had significantly healthier profiles on seven of twelve cardiovascular variables than the men (p values ranging from <0.0001 to <0.05). Male astronauts did not demonstrate significantly healthier values on any of the twelve cardiovascular variables measured

Otto, Christian↗

DOE OSTI2020

Truck platooning in the U.S. national road network: A system-level modeling approach

Truck platooning enables a group of trucks to move close together, which helps reduce truck fuel use and increase effective road capacity. In this paper, a system-level equilibrium model is developed to characterize spontaneous truck platooning with coexistence of non-platooning vehicles in a network, by explicitly accounting for the interlocking relationship among platoon formation time, truck fuel saving, and increase in effective road capacity. To equilibrate the relationships, an algorithm is proposed which involves a diagonalization approach and a bush based algorithm to solve decomposed subproblems. The condition of proportionality is imposed to obtain unique traffic flows for each class of vehicles on road links. In addition, a spatially constrained multivariate clustering technique is employed to construct origin/destination zones that are smaller than the coarse Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) zones, while maintaining reasonable computational burden for network traffic assignment. Model implementation in the U.S. shows that platooning could lead to 7.9% fuel saving among platoonable trucks in 2025 and a comparable increase in effective capacity of platoonable road links, which would account for 60% of rural interstate roads. The fuel saving and road capacity improvement translate into an annual cost reduction of $\$$868 million for the U.S. intercity trucking sector and reduced road infrastructure investment needs worth $\$$4.8 billion. Extensive sensitivity analysis further reveals that fuel saving of platoonable trucks increases with platoon size but decreases with inter-truck distance in a platoon. Fuel saving potential suggests that priority should be given to rural rather than urban roads in deploying platooning technologies. As we expected, greater market penetration of platooning technologies means higher fuel saving and greater increase in effective road capacity.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2011

The Road to the Higgs in $p\bar{p}$ collisions at $\sqrt{s}$= 1.96 TeV

Presented is a series of analyses which are central to the search for a low-mass Higgs boson. A search for $ZZ$ production in the $ZZ\rightarrow\ell^{}\ell^{+}\nu\bar{\nu}$ channel is introduced then the successful combination of this analysis with with the $ZZ\rightarrow\ell^+\ell^-\ell'^+\ell'^-$ search to produce the first observation of the $ZZ$ process at a hadron collider is then detailed. The final analysis presented is the search for the Higgs in the $ZH\rightarrow\nu\bar{\nu}b\bar{b}$ channel and the interpretation as a $ZZ\rightarrow\nu\bar{\nu}b\bar{b}$ search in order to validate the techniques. Common themes are discussed, such as multivariate techniques and instrumental backgrounds from energy measurement fluctuations and the tools used to combat them. The formalism of the statistical analysis of the final selected sample is introduced generally and demonstrated in the context of the above mentioned searches. The optimization of the selection through the identification of poorly reconstructed leptons is included as well as the utilization of b-quark identifying tools. Some space is given to jet reconstruction/identification and the Level 1 Calorimeter Trigger. The efficient identification and calibration of jets is central to many physics analysis especially in the low mass higgs search. Another key component of the $ZH\rightarrow\nu\bar{\nu}b\bar{b}$ search is the proficient identification of jets and an imbalance of transverse energy in the first level of the triggering system. Therefore, the Level 1 Calorimeter Trigger, designed to achieve this, is a necessary component for a sensitive $ZH\rightarrow\nu\bar{\nu}b\bar{b}$ search.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2018

Transarterial Radioembolization Following Chemoembolization for Unresectable Hepatocellular Carcinoma: Response Based on Apparent Diffusion Coefficient Change is an Independent Predictor for Survival

PurposeTo evaluate whether response based on contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC) change at diffusion-weighted MRI after transarterial radioembolization (TARE) can predict survival, in patients with prior transarterial chemoembolization with drug-eluting beads (DEB-TACE) for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsWe identified all patients who received DEB-TACE prior to TARE for HCC between 2007 and 2016. Response on MRI was determined by modified RECIST (mRECIST) and ADC change relative to pre-TARE imaging (ADCratio). Kaplan–Meier and log-rank tests were used to correlate the response/disease and treatment variables to overall survival. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to correct for confounders.ResultsA total of 29 consecutive patients were included. Univariable analysis showed that response determined by mRECIST was a nonsignificant predictor of survival (p = 0.057), and response determined by ADCratio was a significant predictor of survival (p = 0.011). Number of prior DEB-TACE procedures (p = 0.037), female gender (p < 0.001) and BCLC C (p = 0.03) were related to worse survival. The number of prior DEB-TACE procedure was significantly higher in non-responders determined by ADCratio (p = 0.028). Multivariable analyses showed that response based on ADCratio was an independent predictor of survival (p = 0.041).ConclusionADCratio following TARE is an independent predictor for survival in patients who previously underwent DEB-TACE for HCC.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

DOE OSTI2018

Detecting outliers in streaming time series data from ARM distributed sensors

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Data Center at ORNL collects data from a number of permanent and mobile facilities around the globe. The data is then ingested to create high level scientific products. High frequency streaming measurements from sensors and radar instruments at ARM sites require high degree of accuracy to enable rigorous study of atmospheric processes. Outliers in collected data are common due to instrument failure or extreme weather events. Thus, it is critical to identify and flag them. We employed multiple univariate, multivariate and time series techniques for outlier detection methods and studied their effectiveness. First, we examined Pearson correlation coefficient which is used to measure the pairwise correlations between variables. Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) was applied to detect outliers by removing the anticipated annual and seasonal cycles from the signal to accentuate anomalies. K-means was applied for multivariate examination of data from collection of sensors to identify any deviation from expected and known patterns and identify abnormal observation. The Pearson correlation coefficient, SSA and K-means methods were later combined together in a framework to detect outliers through a range of checks. We applied the developed method to data from meteorological sensors at ARM Southern Great Plains site and validated against existing database of known data quality issues.

Lu, Yuping↗

NASA NTRS1976

A computer analysis of ERTS data of the Lake Gregory area of South Australia with particular emphasis on its role in terrain classification for engineering

A digital computer and multivariate statistical techniques were used to analyze 4-band multispectral data. A representation of the original data for each of the four bands allows a certain degree of terrain interpretation; however, variations in appearance of sites within and between bands, without additional criteria for deciding which representation should be preferred, create difficulties for classification. Investigation of the video data groups produced by principal components analysis and cluster analysis techniques shows that effective correlations with classifications of terrain produced by conventional methods could be carried out. The analyses also highlighted underlying relationships between the various elements. The approach used allows large areas (185 cm by 185 cm) to be classified into fundamental units within a matter of hours and can be applied to those parts of the Earth where facilities for conventional studies are poor or lacking.

Lodwick, G. D.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Stochastic Simulation of Daily Suspended Sediment Concentration Using Multivariate Copulas

Estimation of daily suspended sediment concentration (SSC) is required for water resources and environment management. In this paper, a copula-based stochastic method was proposed for daily SSC simulation. Here, the multivariate copula function, constructed based on a bivariate copula and two bivariate conditional probability distributions, was used to model the temporal and cross dependence structures in daily SSCs. Then, the daily SSCs were generated by sampling from the multivariate conditional distribution. As a result, synthetic long-term SSCs data beyond the limited observation period can be provided for water resources managers, which plays a critical role in accurately estimating frequency and magnitude of extreme SSCs events. The proposed method was under rigorous examination by applying to a case study at Pingshan station in the Jinsha River Basin, China. Results showed that the generated daily SSC sequences not only had a high degree of accuracy in preserving the statistical characteristics of the daily SSC observations, but also captured both the temporal correlation and the cross-correlation between the daily streamflow and daily SSC. Specifically, the average daily relative error values corresponding to mean, standard deviation, skewness, lag-1 temporal correlation, and cross correlation were 0.87%, 4.24%, 7.52%, 0.51% and 2.02%, respectively. The multivariate copula framework proposed here can accurately and efficiently generate long-term daily SSC data for water resources management such as frequency analysis and risk assessment of extreme SSC events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Assessing the sensitivity of land-atmosphere coupling strength to boundary and surface layer parameters in the WRF model over Amazon

Modeling tools can be used to diagnose regional land-atmosphere (L-A) coupling strength in the absence of sufficient observations, but subject to uncertainties associated with parameters in model physical parameterizations. Different sensitivity analysis (SA) approaches may lead to different conclusions about the underlying sensitivities. In this study, we quantify simulation uncertainties related to parameter perturbations, and use different approaches to conduct parameter SA on the WRF model pertaining to L-A coupling strength for simulations over the Amazon region. A total of twenty parameters from the Yonsei University (YSU) planetary boundary layer (PBL) and the revised MM5 surface layer (SL) schemes were selected in this analysis. Three different SA methods, the Morris One-at-A-Time (MOAT) method, the Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) method, and the Sobol’ method, were employed to analyze seven WRF-simulated variables and five L-A coupling metrics. Results show that 1) parameter perturbations cause large simulation uncertainties which are comparable to those in the observations; 2) three different SA methods give consistent L-A coupling strength outcomes; 3) six out of the twenty parameters contribute 80%–95% of the total variance in the metrics analyzed, and first-order effects dominate over interaction effects; 4) the twelve variables/metrics of interest show similar sensitivity patterns to the selected parameters, which is consistent across all the methods used. Physical mechanisms for how the sensitive parameters act in determining the L-A coupling strength and associated variables also are illustrated. Our results will help quantifying L-A coupling strength and establishing a basis for parameter calibration over the Amazon region.

Wang, Chen↗

NASA NTRS1973

Reflectance of vegetation, soil, and water

There are no author-identified significant results in this report. This report deals with the selection of the best channels from the 24-channel aircraft data to represent crop and soil conditions. A three-step procedure has been developed that involves using univariate statistics and an F-ratio test to indicate the best 14 channels. From the 14, the 10 best channels are selected by a multivariate stochastic process. The third step involves the pattern recognition procedures developed in the data analysis plan. Indications are that the procedures in use are satsifactory and will extract the desired information from the data.

Wiegand, C. L.↗

NASA NTRS1988

Techniques for assessment of flexible space structure control performance

Several multivariable concepts are presently applied to both the open-loop and closed-loop analysis of a wrap-rib antenna space structure. After evaluating the alternative placements of sensors and actuators by means of controllability, observability, and transmission-zero concepts, the linear quadratic gaussian/loop transfer recovery method is used to synthesize a control law for suppression of the transient vibrations that are typically encountered during maneuvers. The integration of these techniques and associated computer programs into a larger spacecraft design system is also discussed.

Rowell, Lawrence F.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Technology Assessments within NASA's Integrated Technology Assessment Center

NASA's Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) founded the Integrated Technology Assessment Center (ITAC) to provide a comprehensive, systematic approach to identify long-term technology needs, to quantify payoffs for technology investments, and to assess the progress of ASTP-sponsored technology programs in the hypersonics/Earth-to-orbit area. To accomplish these goals, the ITAC has assembled an experienced team representing a broad sector of the aerospace community and developed a systematic assessment process complete with supporting tools. In the ITAC approach, concepts for transportation systems are first selected based on relevance to the ASTP. Models of these concepts are then developed and data on advanced technologies are collected. Projections of key technology characteristics with respect to the specific concepts of interest are made. Both the models and technology projections are then fed into the ITAC's probabilistic systems analysis framework. The probabilistic outputs are weighed against metrics of interest to ASTP and a multivariate decision making process is used to provide inputs for technology prioritization within the ASTP. At present, the ITAC program is working to evaluate a variety of technologies for three two-stage hypersonic vehicle concepts. Concepts include an all rocket, vertical take off-horizontal landing (VTHL) system, a horizontal take-off-horizontal landing (HTHL) RBCC-propelled first stage/all rocket second stage system, and an HTHL turbine-based first stage/all rocket second stage system. This paper will provide a status update of the ITAC program including current results and plans.

Taylor, J. L.↗