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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS1995

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Novel Non-Parametric Density Estimation Approach to Measuring Muon Ionization Cooling and Reverse Emittance Exchange in the MICE Experiment

The Muon Ionization Cooling Experiment (MICE) located at Rutherford Ap- pleton Laboratory in the U.K. has demonstrated muon ionization beam cooling for the rst time. A beam of muons in MICE is produced from high-energy proton beam collision with a xed target, generating pions which in turn decay into muons. Pion-decay muons, thus, are tertiary particles and, as a result, occupy a large vol- ume in position{momentum phase space. To t the muon beam into smaller and more cost-eective accelerating devices, muon beam phase{space volume needs to be reduced (beam cooling). Ionization beam cooling, which before MICE has never been demonstrated experimentally for muons, is the only technique fast enough to be used for muons within their short lifetime. Ionization cooling occurs when muons traverse an absorbing material and lose momentum through ionization energy loss. The cooling eect in MICE is measured using two scintillating-ber tracking detec- tors. These trackers, one upstream and one downstream of the absorber, reconstruct and measure the position and momentum coordinates of each muon. Given the pre- cision MICE needed to demonstrate beam cooling, it is necessary to develop analysis tools that can account for any eects that may lead to inaccurate measurement of cooling, such as non{linear eects in beam optics. Non{parametric density estima- tion techniques, such as kernel density estimation (KDE), provide a basis for creating analysis tools that are robust against these eects, directly calculating the muon beam phase-space density and volume for demonstrating beam cooling. This thesis focuses on the application of KDE to the measurement of beam cooling in MICE. The KDE technique is validated using known distributions and is applied to sim- ulated and experimental MICE data corresponding to the various magnet, optics, and absorber congurations. Using the KDE technique, muon beam cooling in the four{dimensional transverse phase space, as well as reverse emittance exchange using MICE data have been demonstrated.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
NASA NTRS2001

A Canonical Ensemble Correlation Prediction Model for Seasonal Precipitation Anomaly

This report describes an optimal ensemble forecasting model for seasonal precipitation and its error estimation. Each individual forecast is based on the canonical correlation analysis (CCA) in the spectral spaces whose bases are empirical orthogonal functions (EOF). The optimal weights in the ensemble forecasting crucially depend on the mean square error of each individual forecast. An estimate of the mean square error of a CCA prediction is made also using the spectral method. The error is decomposed onto EOFs of the predictand and decreases linearly according to the correlation between the predictor and predictand. This new CCA model includes the following features: (1) the use of area-factor, (2) the estimation of prediction error, and (3) the optimal ensemble of multiple forecasts. The new CCA model is applied to the seasonal forecasting of the United States precipitation field. The predictor is the sea surface temperature.

Shen, Samuel S. P.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Preliminary Assessment of the Impact on the V-Band Oxygen Channels From Satellite Communication Uplinks

We calculate the percentage of time that an ATMS-like instrument [1] will be illuminated by the uplink beam of one of the proposed V-band communication system and estimate the damage resulting from such exposure. Using a combination of openly available information and educated guesses about the location and characteristics of the up/down link terminals, we constructed the ground segment of a hypothetical high-speed communication network. The space segment of the network was constructed from the orbital data of the existing Starlink constellation [2] of 6223 communication satellites (comsats) which is used as strawman to represent any other possible constellation of communication satellites. It is shown that without a very delicate balance of frequency allocations (science vs telecommunications), coupled with extremely steep and deep bandpass-defining filters, and strict adherence to the agreed limits (i.e. no out-of-band transmissions) the deployment of the telecommunication network leads to almost-complete loss of some important geophysical data. For the analysis we use the spectral characteristics of the ATMS instrument with the ephemeris for the NOAA-21 satellite [3]. The analysis is conducted for the USA and the simulation covers 8 consecutive days in July 2024. Effective and accurate microwave remote sensing of the atmosphere depends on the availability of interference-free spectrum windows at frequencies which are prescribed by physical processes [e.g. 4]. The family of resonant lines of the oxygen molecule near 60 GHz provides a unique opportunity to sample the vertical distribution of temperature and density from space, and it has been exploited for weather and climate studies from polar-orbiting satellites since 1978 (MSU on TIROS-N [5]). It remains a staple in the payloads operated by Russia, China, USA, Japan, France, India, UK, Ukraine [6] which are built around a common blueprint: a few wide-band (hundreds of MHz) channels around 50 GHz to sample the atmosphere and the surface while several more channels with high spectral resolution (few MHz) sample the individual resonant lines. Accurate retrieval of the environmental parameters depends upon the data provided by both sets of channels, and the their location in frequency space is not arbitrary and cannot be altered at will [7, 8]. The introduction of 5G technology in 2019 has driven telecommunication companies to request more bandwidth to be dedicated to their devices. This additional bandwidth is only available in spectral regions traditionally reserved for environmental and astrophysical research, such as the V-band between 50 and 60 GHz for up/downlink between satellites in low-earth orbits and terminals connected to fiberoptics network for distribution to high-speed local internet services. The power broadcast by the uplink communication leg is many orders of magnitude greater than the natural thermal signal emitted from the Earth scene. If the ground antenna were to perfectly align with the passive instrument’s antenna, the spaceborne receiver would suffer permanent, irreparable damage. While a direct boresight-to-boresight conjunction is extremely unlikely (even with a large constellation of satellites the fraction of the celestial sphere occupied by the satellites remains minuscule) the finite size of the ground station’s antenna beam in the sky suggests that the ATMS will be in the near background (as seen from the ground station) of one of the communication satellites and will be illuminated by either the main lobe or the near sidelobes of the uplink antenna more often than it is desirable. For our analysis we first calculate the position of the ATMS with respect to each of the ground stations at a resolution of 0.2 sec, then calculate the position of each of the comsats which are at least 25 deg above the station’s local horizon; finally we calculate the angle between the line-of-sight of the ATMS and the line-of-sight of the comsat. We assume that the gain pattern of the ground station is circularly symmetric; the angle-off-station-boresight then provides an attenuation of the uplink power which we use to assess the likely effect upon the passive instrument’s operations. We assume that each ground station can communicate with all the comsats in its field of view; this implies that, on average, a ground station can engage with 46 comsats simultaneously. The analysis is repeated for the case when the uplink broadcast within the ATMS passive channels (in-band scenario) and for the case when the uplink is limited to frequencies adjacent to the ATMS channels (out-of-band scenario). The antenna of the ground station is modelled as having a HPBW (Half-Power Beam Width) of 0.16 deg and EIRP (Equivalent Isotropic Radiated Power) of 70 dBW. We account for the geometric dissipation of the signal caused by the satellite orbital altitude, the attenuation induced by atmospheric gasses at 51 GHz and the mismatch between the circular polarization of the ground-based transmitting antenna and the linear polarization of the satellite-borne receiving antenna. The damages on ATMS are estimated from bench-level measurement conducted at the ATMS’ manufacturer facilities [unpublished].

passive microwave↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gap-filling eddy covariance methane fluxes: Comparison of machine learning model predictions and uncertainties at FLUXNET-CH4 wetlands

Time series of methane fluxes measured by eddy-covariance require gap-filling to estimate annual emissions. Gap-filling methane fluxes is challenging because of high variability and complex responses to multiple drivers. To date, there is no widely established gap-filling standard for methane, with regards both to the best model algorithms and predictors. In this study, we address the need for standardization by synthesizing results of gap-filling methods applied at 17 wetland sites spanning boreal to tropical regions including all major wetlands classes and two rice paddies. We introduce new procedures for: 1) creating realistic artificial gap scenarios, 2) training and evaluating gap-filling models without overstating performance, and 3) predicting half-hourly methane fluxes and annual emissions with robust uncertainty estimates. We tested a conventional method (marginal distribution sampling) and four machine learning algorithms - penalized linear regression, artificial neural networks, random forests, and boosted decision trees - and four predictor sets, including temporal, meteorological, ecosystem carbon and energy flux, and soil predictors. We find that the conventional method can achieve similar median performance to the machine learning models but is worse than the best machine learning models and relatively insensitive to predictor choices. Of the machine learning models, decision tree algorithms performed the best in cross-validation experiments, even with a baseline predictor set, and artificial neural networks showed comparable performance when using all predictors. Soil temperature was frequently the most important predictor whilst water table depth was important at sites with substantial water table fluctuations, highlighting the value of data on soil conditions. Raw gap-filling uncertainties from the machine learning models were underestimated and we propose a method to calibrate uncertainties to observations. Finally, we gap-fill and provide summary evaluation metrics for all 81 sites in the FLUXNET-CH4 community dataset and publicly release the python code for model development, evaluation, and uncertainty estimation.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Collisional effects on nonlinear ion drag force for small grains

The ion drag force arising from plasma flow past an embedded spherical grain is calculated self-consistently and non-linearly using particle in cell codes, accounting for ion-neutral collisions. Using ion velocity distribution appropriate for ion drift driven by a force field gives wake potential and force greatly different from a shifted Maxwellian distribution, regardless of collisionality. The low-collisionality forces are shown to be consistent with estimates based upon cross-sections for scattering in a Yukawa (shielded) grain field, but only if non-linear shielding length is used. Finite collisionality initially enhances the drag force, but only by up to a factor of 2. Larger collisionality eventually reduces the drag force. In the collisional regime, the drift distribution gives larger drag than the shift distribution even at velocities where their collisionless drags are equal. Comprehensive practical analytic formulas for force that fit the calculations are provided.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

On non-autonomous dynamical systems

In usual realistic classical dynamical systems, the Hamiltonian depends explicitly on time. In this work, a class of classical systems with time dependent nonlinear Hamiltonians is analyzed. This type of problems allows to find invariants by a family of Veronese maps. The motivation to develop this method results from the observation that the Poisson-Lie algebra of monomials in the coordinates and momenta is clearly defined in terms of its brackets and leads naturally to an infinite linear set of differential equations, under certain circumstances. To perform explicit analytic and numerical calculations, two examples are presented to estimate the trajectories, the first given by a nonlinear problem and the second by a quadratic Hamiltonian with three time dependent parameters. In the nonlinear problem, the Veronese approach using jets is shown to be equivalent to a direct procedure using elliptic functions identities, and linear invariants are constructed. For the second example, linear and quadratic invariants as well as stability conditions are given. Explicit solutions are also obtained for stepwise constant forces. For the quadratic Hamiltonian, an appropriated set of coordinates relates the geometric setting to that of the three dimensional manifold of central conic sections. It is shown further that the quantum mechanical problem of scattering in a superlattice leads to mathematically equivalent equations for the wave function, if the classical time is replaced by the space coordinate along a superlattice. The mathematical method used to compute the trajectories for stepwise constant parameters can be applied to both problems. It is the standard method in quantum scattering calculations, as known for locally periodic systems including a space dependent effective mass.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2017

Architecture Independent Integrated Early Performance and Energy Estimation

The end of Dennard’s scaling, coupled to the necessity to keep increasing computational performance in constrained power envelopes, is leading developers towards the need to opti- mize applications not only for performance, but also for energy consumption. In such a scenario, solutions that enable estimating performance and energy consumption of a program as early as possible, even during development and without the necessity to access the final target hardware, can become fundamental tools to reduce the design space, the optimization effort, and provide potential opportunities to automate the optimization process itself. In this position paper, we discuss the design of a performance and energy estimation framework based on a retargetable com- piler. Our proposed approach targets the Intermediate Repre- sentation (IR) of the LLVM compiler. The IR based approach enables, after a model is built, estimation from a host different from the target architecture, even considering dynamic infor- mation. We present the rationale behind such a framework, identify opportunities and components readily available (such as the provided static analysis, quick ways to add instrumentation for dynamic profiling, and the multiple backends), and aspects that still need further research efforts (such as more effective non-linear, or machine learning based models). We also discuss a hand-developed case study, based on a simple sparse matrix vector multiplication with a linear model, to motivate the needs for such a framework.

Estimation, Compilers, Performance Analysis↗
NASA NTRS2002

Uncertainties in Estimates of the Risks of Late Effects from Space Radiation

The health risks faced by astronauts from space radiation include cancer, cataracts, hereditary effects, and non-cancer morbidity and mortality risks related to the diseases of the old age. Methods used to project risks in low-Earth orbit are of questionable merit for exploration missions because of the limited radiobiology data and knowledge of galactic cosmic ray (GCR) heavy ions, which causes estimates of the risk of late effects to be highly uncertain. Risk projections involve a product of many biological and physical factors, each of which has a differential range of uncertainty due to lack of data and knowledge. Within the linear-additivity model, we use Monte-Carlo sampling from subjective uncertainty distributions in each factor to obtain a Maximum Likelihood estimate of the overall uncertainty in risk projections. The resulting methodology is applied to several human space exploration mission scenarios including ISS, lunar station, deep space outpost, and Mar's missions of duration of 360, 660, and 1000 days. The major results are the quantification of the uncertainties in current risk estimates, the identification of factors that dominate risk projection uncertainties, and the development of a method to quantify candidate approaches to reduce uncertainties or mitigate risks. The large uncertainties in GCR risk projections lead to probability distributions of risk that mask any potential risk reduction using the "optimization" of shielding materials or configurations. In contrast, the design of shielding optimization approaches for solar particle events and trapped protons can be made at this time, and promising technologies can be shown to have merit using our approach. The methods used also make it possible to express risk management objectives in terms of quantitative objective's, i.e., the number of days in space without exceeding a given risk level within well defined confidence limits.

Cucinotta, F. A.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of Optical Satellites to Estimate Windthrow Tree-Mortality in a Central Amazon Forest

Windthrow (i.e., trees broken and uprooted by wind) is a major natural disturbance in Amazon forests. Images from medium-resolution optical satellites combined with extensive field data have allowed researchers to assess patterns of windthrow tree-mortality and to monitor forest recovery over decades of succession in different regions. Although satellites with high spatial-resolution have become available in the last decade, they have not yet been employed for the quantification of windthrow tree-mortality. Here, we address how increasing the spatial resolution of satellites affects plot-to-landscape estimates of windthrow tree-mortality. We combined forest inventory data with Landsat 8 (30 m pixel), Sentinel 2 (10 m), and WorldView 2 (2 m) imagery over an old-growth forest in the Central Amazon that was disturbed by a single windthrow event in November 2015. Remote sensing estimates of windthrow tree-mortality were produced from Spectral Mixture Analysis and evaluated with forest inventory data (i.e., ground true) by using Generalized Linear Models. Field measured windthrow tree-mortality (3 transects and 30 subplots) crossing the entire disturbance gradient was 26.9 ± 11.1% (mean ± 95% CI). Although the three satellites produced reliable and statistically similar estimates (from 26.5% to 30.3%, p < 0.001), Landsat 8 had the most accurate results and efficiently captured field-observed variations in windthrow tree-mortality across the entire gradient of disturbance (Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2 produced the second and third best results, respectively). As expected, mean-associated uncertainties decreased systematically with increasing spatial resolution (i.e., from Landsat 8 to Sentinel 2 and WorldView 2). However, the overall quality of model fits showed the opposite pattern. We suggest that this reflects the influence of a relatively minor disturbance, such as defoliation and crown damage, and the fast growth of natural regeneration, which were not measured in the field nor can be captured by coarser resolution imagery. Our results validate the reliability of Landsat imagery for assessing plot-to-landscape patterns of windthrow tree-mortality in dense and heterogeneous tropical forests. Satellites with high spatial resolution can improve estimates of windthrow severity by allowing the quantification of crown damage and mortality of lower canopy and understory trees. However, this requires the validation of remote sensing metrics using field data at compatible scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2011

Filtering Methods for Error Reduction in Spacecraft Attitude Estimation Using Quaternion Star Trackers

Precision attitude determination for recent and planned space missions typically includes quaternion star trackers (ST) and a three-axis inertial reference unit (IRU). Sensor selection is based on estimates of knowledge accuracy attainable from a Kalman filter (KF), which provides the optimal solution for the case of linear dynamics with measurement and process errors characterized by random Gaussian noise with white spectrum. Non-Gaussian systematic errors in quaternion STs are often quite large and have an unpredictable time-varying nature, particularly when used in non-inertial pointing applications. Two filtering methods are proposed to reduce the attitude estimation error resulting from ST systematic errors, 1) extended Kalman filter (EKF) augmented with Markov states, 2) Unscented Kalman filter (UKF) with a periodic measurement model. Realistic assessments of the attitude estimation performance gains are demonstrated with both simulation and flight telemetry data from the Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter.

Calhoun, Philip C.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sensor enabled data-driven predictive analytics for modeling and control with high penetration of DERs in distribution systems

The electric power grid is undergoing a tremendous transformation due to the increasing penetration of renewable energy resources beginning with wind and more recently with the distributed energy resources (DERs) such as solar and battery storage. DERs have dramatically changed the role of the distribution systems in the overall power grid, and they are expected to contribute a significant portion of power generation in the future. If current trends for DERs continue, system operation and control will need to change dramatically for improved grid reliability and resiliency. As renewable resources increase in penetration, new and challenging operational, planning, and design problems are expected to emerge. Some of the key challenges that arise in the planning and operation of the future grid are: 1) Quantifying the impact of high DER penetration in distribution systems on bulk grid behavior over multiple time scales. 2) Identifying whether a particular DER configuration/settings have a large impact on the overall grid behavior. These challenges can be addressed in an offline manner using detailed T&D grid models and they can also be addressed in an online manner using sensor measurements. In particular, the advancement and planned growth in sensor technology in power grid over various voltage levels provide us with a unique opportunity to tackle these challenges from a data analytic perspective without needing detailed T&D grid models. A few questions that naturally arise when addressing the challenges from DERs using sensor data are: 1) How can we use limited sensor measurements to monitor & control voltage stability and small signal stability of the bulk system? 2) How can we ensure that the developed data analytic methods are robust to data availability and quality issues? 3) How can we compute the developed analytics in a scalable manner using streaming measurements? In this project, we addressed the aforementioned challenges arising from DERs and answered the questions raised above on how to effectively use the sensor measurements to enhance the reliability and performance of the electric grid. Thus, the overarching goal of this project is to develop effective reduced/representative system models from data that make the computational complexity sufficiently manageable so as to be useful to simulate, analyze, and even control complex non-linear power systems dynamics with large penetrations of DERs. In order to achieve the objective, the project team established a four-fold technical approach 1) Formulated a combined transmission-distribution co-simulation framework for data generation and validation, 2) Derived reduced/representative models of power systems based on data-driven methods for efficient computation and appropriate representation of system behavior, 3) Developed data driven characterization of power system behavior based on transfer operator theory, machine learning and optimization for model estimation, 4) Incorporated a scalable data management and processing architecture using distributed Kafka streaming applications that coordinate input data streams to the developed data analytics. The key accomplishments of the project are: 1) Development of a scalable multi-timescale T&D co-simulation framework (both for steady state and for dynamic co-simulation) using commercial solvers (PSSE and GridLAB-D). The steady-state T&D co-simulation interface is shared with our industry partner (PJM). 2) A structured reduced order dynamic model of distribution systems that can represent partial motor stalling along with a systematic procedure to derive the model parameters. 3) A PMU based online method to monitor, localize and mitigate fault-induced delayed voltage recovery using DER reactive support and load control in distribution systems. 4) Development of linear operator based robust methodologies for dynamic state estimation, uncertainty quantification, system identification and trajectory prediction for power system dynamics. 5) An adaptive damping control for utilizing wind energy resources to provide oscillation damping and system stability. 6) Implementation of Kafka-based framework for efficient processing of streaming data using Linux-based local virtual environment.

DER integration↗
DOE OSTI2017

Asymptotics of Motions of Viscous Incompressible Fluids with Large Viscosity

We examine a nonstationary initial-boundary-value problem on the motion of a viscous incompressible fluid with large viscosity. We obtain estimates of the convergence of solutions of this problem to solutions of the corresponding linearized problems as the viscosity tends to infinity. We also consider the case of the problem periodic in time.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2016

Radiation-Related New Primary Solid Cancers in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study: Comparative Radiation Dose Response and Modification of Treatment Effects

Objectives: The majority of childhood cancer patients now achieve long-term survival, but the treatments that cured their malignancy often put them at risk of adverse health outcomes years later. New cancers are among the most serious of these late effects. The aims of this review are to compare and contrast radiation dose–response relationships for new solid cancers in a large cohort of childhood cancer survivors and to discuss interactions among treatment and host factors. Methods: This review is based on previously published site-specific analyses for subsequent primary cancers of the brain, breast, thyroid gland, bone and soft tissue, salivary glands, and skin among 12,268 5-year childhood cancer survivors in the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study. Analyses included tumor site–specific, individual radiation dose reconstruction based on radiation therapy records. Radiation-related second cancer risks were estimated using conditional logistic or Poisson regression models for excess relative risk (ERR). Results: Linear dose–response relationships over a wide range of radiation dose (0-50 Gy) were seen for all cancer sites except the thyroid gland. The steepest slopes occurred for sarcoma, meningioma, and nonmelanoma skin cancer (ERR/Gy > 1.00), with glioma and cancers of the breast and salivary glands forming a second group (ERR/Gy = 0.27-0.36). The relative risk for thyroid cancer increased up to 15-20 Gy and then decreased with increasing dose. The risk of thyroid cancer also was positively associated with chemotherapy, but the chemotherapy effect was not seen among those who also received very high doses of radiation to the thyroid. The excess risk of radiation-related breast cancer was sharply reduced among women who received 5 Gy or more to the ovaries. Conclusions: The results suggest that the effect of high-dose irradiation is consistent with a linear dose–response for most organs, but they also reveal important organ-specific and host-specific differences in susceptibility and interactions between different aspects of treatment.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of the potential for wake steering for U.S. land-based wind power plants

The wind power plant-wide control strategy known as wake steering involves the misalignment of upstream turbines with the wind direction to deflect wakes away from downstream turbines, increasing net wind plant power production. In this paper, we evaluate the potential of wake steering for U.S. land-based wind power plants. First, we outline a method for simulating and optimizing wake steering control for existing wind plants by combining the flow redirection and induction in steady state wake steering engineering model with the U.S. Wind Turbine Database and Wind Integration National Dataset Toolkit wind resource dataset. Next, to better understand the potential benefits of wake steering beyond those for existing wind plants, we evaluate the relative impacts of turbine specific power, turbine spacing, and mean wind speed on energy gain and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) using a model land-based wind power plant. For a subset of 60 existing wind plants, assuming a constant turbulence intensity of 8%, wake steering was found to yield an average annual energy production (AEP) gain of 0.80%, equivalent to recovering 13.85% of baseline wake losses. Further, we present a linear approximation between baseline wake losses and AEP gains that can be used to estimate wake steering gains for other wind power plants. Highlighting additional benefits of wake steering, for the model wind power plant we found that energy gains from wake steering enabled an approximate 30% reduction in turbine spacing while keeping LCOE constant.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Space Telescope and Optical Reverberation Mapping Project. II. Swift and HST Reverberation mapping of the accretion disk of NGC 5548

Recent intensive Swift monitoring of the Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 5548 yielded 282 usable epochs over 125 days across six UV/optical bands and the X-rays. This is the densest extended active galactic nucleus (AGN) UV/optical continuum sampling ever obtained, with a mean sampling rate <0.5 day. Approximately daily Hubble Space Telescope UV sampling was also obtained. The UV/optical light curves show strong correlations (r{sub max}=0.57−0.90) and the clearest measurement to date of interband lags. These lags are well-fit by a τ∝λ{sup 4/3} wavelength dependence, with a normalization that indicates an unexpectedly large disk radius of ∼0.35±0.05 lt-day at 1367 Å, assuming a simple face-on model. The U band shows a marginally larger lag than expected from the fit and surrounding bands, which could be due to Balmer continuum emission from the broad-line region as suggested by Korista and Goad. The UV/X-ray correlation is weaker (r{sub max}<0.45) and less consistent over time. This indicates that while Swift is beginning to measure UV/optical lags in general agreement with accretion disk theory (although the derived size is larger than predicted), the relationship with X-ray variability is less well understood. Combining this accretion disk size estimate with those from quasar microlensing studies suggests that AGN disk sizes scale approximately linearly with central black hole mass over a wide range of masses.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

A best-practice guide to predicting plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data using partial least squares regression

Partial least squares regression (PLSR) modelling is a statistical technique for correlating datasets, and involves the fitting of a linear regression between two matrices. One application of PLSR enables leaf traits to be estimated from hyperspectral optical reflectance data, facilitating rapid, high-throughput, non-destructive plant phenotyping. This technique is of interest and importance in a wide range of contexts including crop breeding and ecosystem monitoring. The lack of a consensus in the literature on how to perform PLSR means that interpreting model results can be challenging, applying existing models to novel datasets can be impossible, and unknown or undisclosed assumptions can lead to incorrect or spurious predictions. We address this lack of consensus by proposing best practices for using PLSR to predict plant traits from leaf-level hyperspectral data, including a discussion of when PLSR is applicable, and recommendations for data collection. Further, we provide a tutorial to demonstrate how to develop a PLSR model, in the form of an R script accompanying this manuscript. This practical guide will assist all those interpreting and using PLSR models to predict leaf traits from spectral data, and advocates for a unified approach to using PLSR for predicting traits from spectra in the plant sciences.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Cross-correlation of Planck CMB lensing with DESI-like LRGs

ABSTRACT Cross-correlations between the lensing of the cosmic microwave background (CMB) and other tracers of large-scale structure provide a unique way to reconstruct the growth of dark matter, break degeneracies between cosmology and galaxy physics, and test theories of modified gravity. We detect a cross-correlation between Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI)-like luminous red galaxies (LRGs) selected from DECam Legacy Survey imaging and CMB lensing maps reconstructed with the Planck satellite at a significance of S/N = 27.2 over scales ℓmin = 30, ℓmax = 1000. To correct for magnification bias, we determine the slope of the LRG cumulative magnitude function at the faint limit as s = 0.999 ± 0.015, and find corresponding corrections of the order of a few per cent for $C^{\kappa g}_{\ell }, C^{gg}_{\ell }$ across the scales of interest. We fit the large-scale galaxy bias at the effective redshift of the cross-correlation zeff ≈ 0.68 using two different bias evolution agnostic models: a HaloFit times linear bias model where the bias evolution is folded into the clustering-based estimation of the redshift kernel, and a Lagrangian perturbation theory model of the clustering evaluated at zeff. We also determine the error on the bias from uncertainty in the redshift distribution; within this error, the two methods show excellent agreement with each other and with DESI survey expectations.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗