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NASA NTRS2007

NASA Tech Briefs, January 2007

Topics covered include: Flexible Skins Containing Integrated Sensors and Circuitry; Artificial Hair Cells for Sensing Flows; Video Guidance Sensor and Time-of-Flight Rangefinder; Optical Beam-Shear Sensors; Multiple-Agent Air/Ground Autonomous Exploration Systems; A 640 512-Pixel Portable Long-Wavelength Infrared Camera; An Array of Optical Receivers for Deep-Space Communications; Microstrip Antenna Arrays on Multilayer LCP Substrates; Applications for Subvocal Speech; Multiloop Rapid-Rise/Rapid Fall High-Voltage Power Supply; The PICWidget; Fusing Symbolic and Numerical Diagnostic Computations; Probabilistic Reasoning for Robustness in Automated Planning; Short-Term Forecasting of Radiation Belt and Ring Current; JMS Proxy and C/C++ Client SDK; XML Flight/Ground Data Dictionary Management; Cross-Compiler for Modeling Space-Flight Systems; Composite Elastic Skins for Shape-Changing Structures; Glass/Ceramic Composites for Sealing Solid Oxide Fuel Cells; Aligning Optical Fibers by Means of Actuated MEMS Wedges; Manufacturing Large Membrane Mirrors at Low Cost; Double-Vacuum-Bag Process for Making Resin- Matrix Composites; Surface Bacterial-Spore Assay Using Tb3+/DPA Luminescence; Simplified Microarray Technique for Identifying mRNA in Rare Samples; High-Resolution, Wide-Field-of-View Scanning Telescope; Multispectral Imager With Improved Filter Wheel and Optics; Integral Radiator and Storage Tank; Compensation for Phase Anisotropy of a Metal Reflector; Optical Characterization of Molecular Contaminant Films; Integrated Hardware and Software for No-Loss Computing; Decision-Tree Formulation With Order-1 Lateral Execution; GIS Methodology for Planning Planetary-Rover Operations; Optimal Calibration of the Spitzer Space Telescope; Automated Detection of Events of Scientific Interest; Representation-Independent Iteration of Sparse Data Arrays; Mission Operations of the Mars Exploration Rovers; and More About Software for No-Loss Computing.

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NASA NTRS2009

Seeking: Accurate Measurement Techniques for Deep-Bone Density and Structure

We are seeking a clinically-useful technology with enough sensitivity to assess the microstructure of "spongy" bone that is found in the marrow cavities of whole bones. However, this technology must be for skeletal sites surrounded by layers of soft tissues, such as the spine and the hip. Soft tissue interferes with conventional imaging and using a more accessible area -- for example, the wrist or the ankle of limbs-- as a proxy for the less accessible skeletal regions, will not be accurate. A non-radioactive technology is strongly preferred.

Sibonga, Jean↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Geostationary Lighting Mapper (GLM) for GOES-R: A New Operational Capability to Improve Storm Forecasts and Warnings

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. Superior spacecraft and instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES capabilities include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral (3x), spatial (4x), and temporal (5x) resolution for the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The GLM, an optical transient detector and imager operating in the near-IR at 777.4 nm will map all (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lighting flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. In parallel with the instrument development (a prototype and 4 flight models), a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the Level 2 algorithms and applications. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional test beds are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time lightning mapping data are being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate Day-1 user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Influence of Solar-Geomagnetic Disturbances on SABER Measurements of 4.3 Micrometer Emission and the Retrieval of Kinetic Temperature and Carbon Dioxide

Thermospheric infrared radiance at 4.3 micrometers is susceptible to the influence of solar-geomagnetic disturbances. Ionization processes followed by ion-neutral chemical reactions lead to vibrationally excited NO(+) (i.e., NO(+)(v)) and subsequent 4.3 micrometer emission in the ionospheric E-region. Large enhancements of nighttime 4.3 m emission were observed by the TIMED/SABER instrument during the April 2002 and October-November 2003 solar storms. Global measurements of infrared 4.3 micrometer emission provide an excellent proxy to observe the nighttime E-region response to auroral dosing and to conduct a detailed study of E-region ion-neutral chemistry and energy transfer mechanisms. Furthermore, we find that photoionization processes followed by ion-neutral reactions during quiescent, daytime conditions increase the NO(+) concentration enough to introduce biases in the TIMED/SABER operational processing of kinetic temperature and CO2 data, with the largest effect at summer solstice. In this paper, we discuss solar storm enhancements of 4.3 micrometer emission observed from SABER and assess the impact of NO(+)(v) 4.3 micrometer emission on quiescent, daytime retrievals of Tk/CO2 from the SABER instrument.

Mertens, Christopher J.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Estimating Total Heliospheric Magnetic Flux from Single-Point in Situ Measurements

A fraction of the total photospheric magnetic flux opens to the heliosphere to form the interplanetary magnetic field carried by the solar wind. While this open flux is critical to our understanding of the generation and evolution of the solar magnetic field, direct measurements are generally limited to single-point measurements taken in situ by heliospheric spacecraft. An observed latitude invariance in the radial component of the magnetic field suggests that extrapolation from such single-point measurements to total heliospheric magnetic flux is possible. In this study we test this assumption using estimates of total heliospheric flux from well-separated heliospheric spacecraft and conclude that single-point measurements are indeed adequate proxies for the total heliospheric magnetic flux, though care must be taken when comparing flux estimates from data collected at different heliocentric distances.

Owens, M. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Reconstructing the Solar VUV Irradiance over the Past 60 Years

The Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) is an empirical model of the solar irradiance spectrum from 0.1 to 190 nm at I nm spectral resolution and on a 1-minute time cadence. The goal of FISM is to provide accurate solar spectral irradiances over the vacuum ultraviolet (VUV: 0-200 nm) range as input for ionospheric and thermospheric models, as well as climate studies over 60 years. A brief overview of the FISM model will be given, and also discussed is how the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) EUV Variability Experiment (EVE) will contribute to improving FISM and its accuracies. Results will also be shown quantifying the VUV contributions to the total flare energy budget, and more importantly discuss the increased errors associated by not including flares in the solar energy input to the Earth's system. Concluding the talk will be a discussion of the proxies, and their associated uncertainties, used for solar spectral reconstructions prior to 1947 going back hundreds of years.

Chamberlin, Phillip↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) for the GOES-R Series Next Generation Operational Environmental Satellite Constellation

The next generation Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES-R) series with a planned launch in 2015 is a follow on to the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. The system will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency. The system provides products including lightning, cloud properties, rainfall rate, volcanic ash, air quality, hurricane intensity, and fire/hot spot characterization. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved spectral, spatial, and temporal resolution for the 16-channel Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), an optical transient detector will map total (in-cloud and cloud-to-ground) lightning flashes continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product refresh rate of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions, from the west coast of Africa (GOES-E) to New Zealand (GOES-W) when the constellation is fully operational. In parallel with the instrument development, a GOES-R Risk Reduction Team and Algorithm Working Group Lightning Applications Team have begun to develop the higher level algorithms and applications using the GLM alone and decision aids incorporating information from the ABI, ground-based weather radar, and numerical models. Proxy total lightning data from the NASA Lightning Imaging Sensor on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and regional lightning networks are being used to develop the pre-launch algorithms and applications, and also improve our knowledge of thunderstorm initiation and evolution. Real time total lightning mapping data are also being provided in an experimental mode to selected National Weather Service (NWS) national centers and forecast offices via the GOES-R Proving Ground to help improve our understanding of the application of these data in operational settings and facilitate early on-orbit user readiness for this new capability.

Goodman, Steven J.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Porting Gravitational Wave Signal Extraction to Parallel Virtual Machine (PVM)

Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) is a planned NASA-ESA mission to be launched around 2012. The Gravitational Wave detection is fundamentally the determination of frequency, source parameters, and waveform amplitude derived in a specific order from the interferometric time-series of the rotating LISA spacecrafts. The LISA Science Team has developed a Mock LISA Data Challenge intended to promote the testing of complicated nested search algorithms to detect the 100-1 millihertz frequency signals at amplitudes of 10E-21. However, it has become clear that, sequential search of the parameters is very time consuming and ultra-sensitive; hence, a new strategy has been developed. Parallelization of existing sequential search algorithms of Gravitational Wave signal identification consists of decomposing sequential search loops, beginning with outermost loops and working inward. In this process, the main challenge is to detect interdependencies among loops and partitioning the loops so as to preserve concurrency. Existing parallel programs are based upon either shared memory or distributed memory paradigms. In PVM, master and node programs are used to execute parallelization and process spawning. The PVM can handle process management and process addressing schemes using a virtual machine configuration. The task scheduling and the messaging and signaling can be implemented efficiently for the LISA Gravitational Wave search process using a master and 6 nodes. This approach is accomplished using a server that is available at NASA Ames Research Center, and has been dedicated to the LISA Data Challenge Competition. Historically, gravitational wave and source identification parameters have taken around 7 days in this dedicated single thread Linux based server. Using PVM approach, the parameter extraction problem can be reduced to within a day. The low frequency computation and a proxy signal-to-noise ratio are calculated in separate nodes that are controlled by the master using message and vector of data passing. The message passing among nodes follows a pattern of synchronous and asynchronous send-and-receive protocols. The communication model and the message buffers are allocated dynamically to address rapid search of gravitational wave source information in the Mock LISA data sets.

Thirumalainambi, Rajkumar↗
NASA NTRS2009

Development of a Geomagnetic Storm Correction to the International Reference Ionosphere E-Region Electron Densities Using TIMED/SABER Observations

Auroral infrared emission observed from the TIMED/SABER broadband 4.3 micron channel is used to develop an empirical geomagnetic storm correction to the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) E-region electron densities. The observation-based proxy used to develop the storm model is SABER-derived NO+(v) 4.3 micron volume emission rates (VER). A correction factor is defined as the ratio of storm-time NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER to a quiet-time climatological averaged NO+(v) 4.3 micron VER, which is linearly fit to available geomagnetic activity indices. The initial version of the E-region storm model, called STORM-E, is most applicable within the auroral oval region. The STORM-E predictions of E-region electron densities are compared to incoherent scatter radar electron density measurements during the Halloween 2003 storm events. Future STORM-E updates will extend the model outside the auroral oval.

Mertens, C. J.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Utility of the OMI HCHO and NO2 Data Products in Air Quality Decision- Making Activities

We will present three related air quality applications of the OMI HCHO (formaldehyde) and NO2 (nitrogen dioxide) data products, which we us to support mission planning of an OMI-like instrument for the proposed GEO-CAPE satellite that has as one of its objectives to study air quality from space. First, we will discuss a novel and practical application of the data products to the "weight of evidence" in the air quality decision-making process (e.g., State Implementation Plan (SIP)) for a city, region, or state to demonstrate that it is making progress toward attainment of the National Ambient Air Quality Standard (NAAQS) for ozone. Any trend, or lack thereof, in the observed OMI HCHO/NO2, which we use as an air quality indicator, may support that an emission control strategy implemented to reduce ozone is or is not occurring for a metropolitan area. Second, we will discuss how we use variations in the OMI HCHO product as a proxy for variability in the biogenic hydrocarbon, isoprene, which is an important player for the formation of high levels of ozone and the dominant source of HCHO in the eastern U.S. Third, we will discuss the variability of NO2 in the U.S. as indicated by the OMI NO2 product. In addition, we will show the impact of the 2005 hurricanes on pollutant emissions, including those associated with the intensive oil extraction and refining activities, in the Gulf of Mexico region using the OMI NO2 product. The variability of HCHO and NO2 as indicated by OMI helps us to understand changes in the OMI HCHO/NO2 and the implications for ozone formation.

Duncan, Bryan N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Usefulness of AIRS-Derived OLR, Temperature, Water Vapor and Cloudiness Anomaly Trends for GCM Validation

Mainly due to their global nature, satellite observations can provide a very useful basis for GCM validations. In particular, satellite sounders such as AIRS provide 3-D spatial information (most useful for GCMs), so the question arises: can we use AIRS datasets for climate variability assessments? We show that the recent (September 2002 February 2010) CERES-observed negative trend in OLR of approx.-0.1 W/sq m/yr averaged over the globe is found in the AIRS OLR data as well. Most importantly, even minute details (down to 1 x 1 degree GCM-scale resolution) of spatial and temporal anomalies and trends of OLR as observed by CERES and computed based on AIRS-retrieved surface and atmospheric geophysical parameters over this time period are essentially the same. The correspondence can be seen even in the very large spatial variations of these trends with local values ranging from -2.6 W/sq m/yr to +3.0 W/sq m/yr in the tropics, for example. This essentially perfect agreement of OLR anomalies and trends derived from observations by two different instruments, in totally independent and different manners, implies that both sets of results must be highly accurate, and indirectly validates the anomalies and trends of other AIRS derived products as well. These products show that global and regional anomalies and trends of OLR, water vapor and cloud cover over the last 7+ years are strongly influenced by EI-Nino-La Nina cycles . We have created climate parameter anomaly datasets using AIRS retrievals which can be compared directly with coupled GCM climate variability assessments. Moreover, interrelationships of these anomalies and trends should also be similar between the observed and GCM-generated datasets, and, in cases of discrepancies, GCM parameterizations could be improved based on the relationships observed in the data. First, we assess spatial "trends" of variability of climatic parameter anomalies [since anomalies relative to the seasonal cycle are good proxies of climate variability] at the common 1x1 degree GCM grid-scale by creating spatial anomaly "trends" based on the first 7+ years of AIRS Version 5 Leve13 data. We suggest that modelers should compare these with their (coupled) GCM's performance covering the same period. We evaluate temporal variability and interrelations of climatic anomalies on global to regional e.g., deep Tropical Hovmoller diagrams, El-Nino-related variability scales, and show the effects of El-Nino-La Nina activity on tropical anomalies and trends of water vapor cloud cover and OLR. For GCMs to be trusted highly for long-term climate change predictions, they should be able to reproduce findings similar to these. In summary, the AIRS-based climate variability analyses provide high quality, informative and physically plausible interrelationships among OLR, temperature, humidity and cloud cover both on the spatial and temporal scales. GCM validations can use these results even directly, e. g., by creating 1x1 degree trendmaps for the same period in coupled climate simulations.

Molnar, Gyula I.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Variability of Marine Aerosol Fine-Mode Fraction and Estimates of Anthropogenic Aerosol Component Over Cloud-Free Oceans from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)

In this study, we examine seasonal and geographical variability of marine aerosol fine-mode fraction (f(sub m)) and its impacts on deriving the anthropogenic component of aerosol optical depth (tau(sub a)) and direct radiative forcing from multispectral satellite measurements. A proxy of f(sub m), empirically derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Collection 5 data, shows large seasonal and geographical variations that are consistent with the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) model simulations. The so-derived seasonally and spatially varying f(sub m) is then implemented into a method of estimating tau(sub a) and direct radiative forcing from the MODIS measurements. It is found that the use of a constant value for fm as in previous studies would have overestimated Ta by about 20% over global ocean, with the overestimation up to 45% in some regions and seasons. The 7-year (2001-2007) global ocean average tau(sub a) is 0.035, with yearly average ranging from 0.031 to 0.039. Future improvement in measurements is needed to better separate anthropogenic aerosol from natural ones and to narrow down the wide range of aerosol direct radiative forcing.

Yu, Hongbin↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Impact of Tropical Recirculation on Polar Composition

We derive the tropical modal age of air from an analysis of the water vapor tape recorder. We combine the observationally derived modal age with mean age of air from CO2 and SF6 to create diagnostics for the independent evaluation of the vertical transport rate and horizontal recirculation into the tropics between 16-32 km. These diagnostics are applied to two Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) chemistry and transport model (CTM) age tracer simulations to give new insights into the tropical transport characteristics of the meteorological fields from the GEOS4-GCM and the GEOS4-DAS. Both simulations are found to have modal ages that are in reasonable agreement with the empirically derived age (i.e ., transit times) over the entire altitude range. Both simulations show too little horizontal recirculation into the tropics above 22 km, with the GEOS4-DAS fields having greater recirculation. Using CH4 as a proxy for mean age, comparisons between HALOE and model CH4 in the Antarctic demonstrate how the strength of tropical recirculation affects polar composition in both CTM experiments. Better tropical recirculation tends to improve the CH4 simulation in the Antarctic. However, mean age in the Antarctic lower stratosphere can be compromised by poor representation of tropical ascent, tropical recirculation, or vortex barrier strength. The connection between polar and tropical composition shown in this study demonstrates the importance of diagnosing each of these processes separately in order to verify the adequate representation of the processes contributing to polar composition in models.

Strahan, S. E.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Evidence for Differential Comminution/Aeolian Sorting and Chemical Weathering of Martian Soils Preserved in Mars Meteorite EET79001

Impact-melt glasses containing Martian atmospheric gases in Mars meteorite EET79001 are formed from Martian soil fines that had undergone meteoroid-comminution and aeolian sorting accompanied by chemical weathering near Mars surface. Using SiO2 and SO3 as proxy for silicates and salts respectively in Mars soils, we find that SiO2 and SO3 correlate negatively with FeO and MgO and positively with Al2O3 and CaO in these glasses, indicating that the mafic and felsic components are depleted and enriched relative to the bulk host (Lith A/B) respectively as in the case of Moon soils. Though the overall pattern of mineral fractionation is similar between the soil fines on Mars and Moon, the magnitudes of the enrichments/depletions differ between these sample-suites because of pervasive aeolian activity on Mars. In addition to this mechanical processing, the Martian soil fines, prior to impact-melting, have undergone acid-sulfate dissolution under oxidizing/reducing conditions. The S03 content in EET79001,507 (Lith B) glass is approx.18% compared to < 2% in EET79001, 506 (Lith A). SiO2 and SO3 negatively correlate with each other in ,507 glasses similar to Pathfinder soils. The positive correlation found between FeO and SO3 in ,507 glasses as well as Pathfinder rocks and soils is consistent with the deposition of ferric-hydroxysulfate on regolith grains in an oxidizing environment. As in the case of Pathfinder soils, the Al 2O3 vs SiO2 positive correlation and FeO VS S102 negative correlation observed in ,507 glasses indicate that SiO2 from the regolith is mobilized as soluble silicic acid at low pH. The large off-set in the end-member FeO abundance ( SO3=0) between Pathfinder soil-free rock and sulfur-free rock in ,507 glass precursors suggests that the soils comprising the ,507 glasses contain much larger proportion of fine-grained Martian soil fraction that registers strong mafic depletion relative to Lith B. This inference is strongly supported by the Al2O3 - SO3 negative correlation observed in both ,507 glasses and pathfinder soils. Furthermore, the flat MgO-SO3 correlation observed in the case of ,507 glasses shows that the solubilized MgSO4 is mobilized by the aqueous solutions leaving behind the rock-residue with approx.2-3% MgO. This value is similar to the approx.2% MgO found for the soil-free rock at the Pathfinder site. The EET79001 ,506 glasses, in contrast, show that Al2O3 and CaO positively correlate with SO3 indicating that Al is precipitated as amorphous hydroxysulfate at relatively high pH. The FeO - SO3 negative correlation observed in ,506 glasses yields an end-member FeO abundance of approx.21% for the sulfur-free rock, which is consistent with the 22% FeO deduced for the Viking soil-free rock. Further, the FeO and MgO negative correlation with S03 observed in ,506 glasses indicates that the divalent Fe and Mg released from ferromagnesian minerals by acid sulfate dissolution are mobilized away from the reaction sites as soluble sulfates under reducing environment. A similar negative correlation between FeO and SO3 and a positive correlation between Al2O3 and SO3 found in Viking soils suggest that they also had undergone acid-sulfate dissolution under relatively reducing conditions.

Rao, M. N.↗
NASA NTRS2010

The Sao Paulo Lightning Mapping Array (SPLMA): Prospects to GOES-R GLM and CHUVA

This paper presents the characteristics and prospects of a Lightning Mapping Array to be deployed at the city of S o Paulo (SPLMA). This LMA network will provide CHUVA campaign with total lightning, lightning channel mapping and detailed information on the locations of cloud charge regions for the thunderstorms investigated during one of its IOP. The real-time availability of LMA observations will also contribute to and support improved weather situational awareness and mission execution. For GOES-R program it will form the basis of generating unique and valuable proxy data sets for both GLM and ABI sensors in support of several on-going research investigations

Albrecht, Rachel I.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis of Historical Data - Part 1

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation (+4% annual growth), resulting in unreliable service and systemic delays. Estimates of the impact of delays and unreliable air transportation service on the economy range from $32B to $41B per year. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making with regards to: (1) geographic access, (2) economic access, and (3) airline finances. This analysis evaluated markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size, airfares, and profit from 2005-2009. During this period, airlines experienced changes in costs of operation (due to fluctuations in hedged fuel prices), changes in travel demand (due to changes in the economy), and changes in infrastructure capacity (due to the capacity limits at EWR, JFK, and LGA). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of capacity limits at airports, as well as the effect of increased costs of operation (i.e. hedged fuel prices). The increases in costs of operation serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed.

Donohue, George↗
NASA NTRS2010

Optimizing Air Transportation Service to Metroplex Airports: Analysis Using the Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) - Par 2

The air transportation system is a significant driver of the U.S. economy, providing safe, affordable, and rapid transportation. During the past three decades airspace and airport capacity has not grown in step with demand for air transportation; the failure to increase capacity at the same rate as the growth in demand results in unreliable service and systemic delay. This report describes the results of an analysis of airline strategic decision-making that affects geographic access, economic access, and airline finances, extending the analysis of these factors using historic data (from Part 1 of the report). The Airline Schedule Optimization Model (ASOM) was used to evaluate how exogenous factors (passenger demand, airline operating costs, and airport capacity limits) affect geographic access (markets-served, scheduled flights, aircraft size), economic access (airfares), airline finances (profit), and air transportation efficiency (aircraft size). This analysis captures the impact of the implementation of airport capacity limits, as well as the effect of increased hedged fuel prices, which serve as a proxy for increased costs per flight that might occur if auctions or congestion pricing are imposed; also incorporated are demand elasticity curves based on historical data that provide information about how passenger demand is affected by airfare changes.

Donoue, George↗
NASA NTRS2010

Trend Analysis and Detection of Changes in the Stratospheric Circulation

Increases in the circulation of the stratosphere appear to be a robust result of climate change in chemistry-climate models over decadal time scales. To date observations have yet to show a significant change in this circulation. It is important for the design of future observational missions to identify suitable atmospheric constituents and to determine the accuracy and length of record needed to identify a significant trend that can be attributed to circulation change. First, we determine what atmospheric variables can be used as proxies for stratospheric circulation changes. A few examples are changes in tropical lower stratospheric ozone, phase lag of the water vapor tape recorder, CO2, and SF6. Then, using both the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) and observations from satellites and balloon soundings, we calculate the number of years needed to detect a significant trend, taking into account observational uncertainty. Model simulations will be evaluated to see how well they represent observed variability. In addition, the impacts of autocorrelation among the output or data and gaps in the observational record will be discussed.

Oman, Luke↗