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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

A Leray regularized ensemble-proper orthogonal decomposition method for parameterized convection-dominated flows

Abstract Partial differential equations (PDEs) are often dependent on input quantities that are uncertain. To quantify this uncertainty PDEs must be solved over a large ensemble of parameters. Even for a single realization this can be a computationally intensive process. In the case of flows governed by the Navier–Stokes equations, an efficient method has been devised for computing an ensemble of solutions. To further reduce the computational cost of this method, an ensemble-proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) method was recently proposed. The main contribution of this work is the introduction of POD spatial filtering for ensemble-POD methods. The POD spatial filter makes possible the construction of the Leray ensemble-POD model, which is a regularized-reduced order model for the numerical simulation of convection-dominated flows of moderate Reynolds number. The Leray ensemble-POD model employs the POD spatial filter to smooth (regularize) the convection term in the Navier–Stokes equations, and diminishes the numerical inaccuracies produced by the ensemble-POD method in the numerical simulation of convection-dominated flows. Specifically, for the numerical simulation of a convection-dominated two-dimensional flow between two offset cylinders, we show that the Leray ensemble-POD method better reflects the dynamics of the benchmark results than the ensemble-POD scheme. The second contribution of this work is a new numerical discretization of the variable viscosity ensemble algorithm in which the average viscosity is replaced with the maximum viscosity. It is shown that this new numerical discretization is significantly more stable than those in current use. Furthermore, error estimates for the novel Leray ensemble-POD algorithm with this new numerical discretization are also proven.

Mathematics↗

Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV: Mapping the Milky Way, Nearby Galaxies, and the Distant Universe

We describe the Sloan Digital Sky Survey IV (SDSS-IV), a project encompassing three major spectroscopic programs. The Apache Point Observatory Galactic Evolution Experiment 2 (APOGEE-2) is observing hundreds of thousands of Milky Way stars at high resolution and high signal-to-noise ratios in the near-infrared. The Mapping Nearby Galaxies at Apache Point Observatory (MaNGA) survey is obtaining spatially resolved spectroscopy for thousands of nearby galaxies (median z∼0.03). The extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey (eBOSS) is mapping the galaxy, quasar, and neutral gas distributions between z∼0.6 and 3.5 to constrain cosmology using baryon acoustic oscillations, redshift space distortions, and the shape of the power spectrum. Within eBOSS, we are conducting two major subprograms: the SPectroscopic IDentification of eROSITA Sources (SPIDERS), investigating X-ray AGNs and galaxies in X-ray clusters, and the Time Domain Spectroscopic Survey (TDSS), obtaining spectra of variable sources. All programs use the 2.5 m Sloan Foundation Telescope at the Apache Point Observatory; observations there began in Summer 2014. APOGEE-2 also operates a second near-infrared spectrograph at the 2.5 m du Pont Telescope at Las Campanas Observatory, with observations beginning in early 2017. Observations at both facilities are scheduled to continue through 2020. In keeping with previous SDSS policy, SDSS-IV provides regularly scheduled public data releases; the first one, Data Release 13, was made available in 2016 July.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

E-Invariant Quantized Motion of Valence Quarks

In sub-proton space wave processes are impossible. The analog of the Klein–Gordon equation in sub-proton space is elliptical and describes a stationary system with a constant number of particles. For dynamical processes, separation of variables is used and in each quantum of motion of the quark two states are distinguished: a localization state and a translation state with infinite velocity. Alternation of these states describes the motion of a quark. The mathematical expectations of the lifetimes of the localization states and the spatial extents of the translation states for a free quark and for a quark in a centrally symmetric potential are found. The action after one quantum of motion is equal to the Planck constant. The one-sided Laplace transform is used to determine the Green’s function. Use of path integrals shows that the quantized trajectory of a quark is a broken line enveloping the classical trajectory of oscillation of the quark. Comparison of the calculated electric charge distribution in a proton with its experimental value gives satisfactory results. A hypothesis is formulated, according to which the three Grand Geometries of space correspond to the three main interactions of elementary particles.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Mapping high pH levels in hydrated calcium silicates

Data on the variability of pH levels in cement-based materials is essential for a better understanding of the early aging of materials and the long-term performance of concrete structures. Current approaches for measuring pH levels in concrete are inadequate with respect to radiometric range and resolution and spatial granularity. We report on a methodology for mapping pH levels in concrete utilizing a halochromic porphyrin sensor molecule that allows a simple measurement of surface values of pH level using a commercial digital camera setup. As proof of concept, cement paste, mortar, and concrete samples were subject to accelerated carbonation and then evaluated for pH profiles at different ages of degradation. Comparative tests on the same specimens were also conducted using phenolphthalein as the pH indicator. Spatial distribution of pH level from pH 11.0 to 13.5 was mapped at various levels of carbonation.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

MSH1 Is a Plant Organellar DNA Binding and Thylakoid Protein under Precise Spatial Regulation to Alter Development

As metabolic centers, plant organelles participate in maintenance, defense, and signaling. MSH1 is a plant-specific protein involved in organellar genome stability in mitochondria and plastids. Plastid depletion of MSH1 causes heritable, non-genetic changes in development and DNA methylation. We investigated the msh1 phenotype using hemi-complementation mutants and transgene-null segregants from RNAi suppression lines to sub-compartmentalize MSH1 effects. We show that MSH1 expression is spatially regulated, specifically localizing to plastids within the epidermis and vascular parenchyma. The protein binds DNA and localizes to plastid and mitochondrial nucleoids, but fractionation and protein–protein interactions data indicate that MSH1 also associates with the thylakoid membrane. Plastid MSH1 depletion results in variegation, abiotic stress tolerance, variable growth rate, and delayed maturity. Depletion from mitochondria results in 7%–10% of plants altered in leaf morphology, heat tolerance, and mitochondrial genome stability. MSH1 does not localize within the nucleus directly, but plastid depletion produces non-genetic changes in flowering time, maturation, and growth rate that are heritable independent of MSH1. MSH1 depletion alters non-photoactive redox behavior in plastids and a sub-set of mitochondrially altered lines. Ectopic expression produces deleterious effects, underlining its strict expression control. Unraveling the complexity of the MSH1 effect offers insight into triggers of plant-specific, transgenerational adaptation behaviors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Global Life Cycle and Techno-Economic Assessment of Algal-Based Biofuels

Techno-economic analyses (TEAs) and life cycle assessments (LCAs) of algal biofuels often focus on locations in suboptimal latitudes for algal cultivation, which can under-represent the sustainability potential of the technology. This study identifies the optimal global productivity potential, environmental impacts, and economic viability of algal biofuels by using validated biophysical and sustainability modeling. The biophysical model simulates growth rates of Scenedesmus obliquusbased on temperature, photoinhibition, and respiration effects at 6685 global locations. Region-specific labor costs, construction factors, and tax rates allow for spatially resolved TEA, while the LCA includes regional impacts of electricity, hydrogen, and nutrient markets across ten environmental categories. The analysis identifies optimal locations for algal biofuel production in terms of environmental impacts and economic viability which are shown to follow biomass yields. Modeling results highlight the global variability of productivity with maximum yields ranging between 24.8 and 27.5 g m -2 d -1 in equatorial regions. Environmental impact results show favorable locations tracked with low-carbon electricity grids, with the well-to-wheels global warming potential (GWP) ranging from 31 to 45 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in South America and Central Africa. When including direct land use change impacts, the GWP ranged between 44 and 55 g CO 2eq MJ -1 in these high-productivity regions. Low-carbon electricity also favors air quality and eutrophication impacts. The TEA shows that minimum algal fuel prices of $\$1.89$-$\$2.15$ per liter of gasoline-equivalent are possible in southeast Asia and Venezuela. Furthermore, this discussion focuses on the challenges and opportunities to reduce fuel prices and the environmental impacts of algal biofuels in various global regions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Directivity Modes of Earthquake Populations with Unsupervised Learning

We present a novel approach for resolving modes of rupture directivity in large populations of earthquakes. A seismic spectral decomposition technique is used to first produce relative measurements of radiated energy for earthquakes in a spatially compact cluster. The azimuthal distribution of energy for each earthquake is then assumed to result from one of several distinct modes of rupture propagation. Rather than fitting a kinematic rupture model to determine the most likely mode of rupture propagation, we instead treat the modes as latent variables and learn them with a Gaussian mixture model. The mixture model simultaneously determines the number of events that best identify with each mode. The technique is demonstrated on four datasets in California, each with compact clusters of several thousand earthquakes with comparable slip mechanisms. We show that the datasets naturally decompose into distinct rupture propagation modes that correspond to different rupture directions, and the fault plane is unambiguously identified for all cases. We find that these small earthquakes exhibit unilateral ruptures 63–73% of the time on average. Here, the results provide important observational constraints on the physics of earthquakes and faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Permafrost microbial communities and functional genes are structured by latitudinal and soil geochemical gradients

Permafrost underlies approximately one quarter of Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surfaces and contains 25–50% of the global soil carbon (C) pool. Permafrost soils and the C stocks within are vulnerable to ongoing and future projected climate warming. The biogeography of microbial communities inhabiting permafrost has not been examined beyond a small number of sites focused on local-scale variation. Permafrost is different from other soils. Perennially frozen conditions in permafrost dictate that microbial communities do not turn over quickly, thus possibly providing strong linkages to past environments. Thus, the factors structuring the composition and function of microbial communities may differ from patterns observed in other terrestrial environments. Here, we analyzed 133 permafrost metagenomes from North America, Europe, and Asia. Permafrost biodiversity and taxonomic distribution varied in relation to pH, latitude and soil depth. The distribution of genes differed by latitude, soil depth, age, and pH. Genes that were the most highly variable across all sites were associated with energy metabolism and C-assimilation. Specifically, methanogenesis, fermentation, nitrate reduction, and replenishment of citric acid cycle intermediates. This suggests that adaptations to energy acquisition and substrate availability are among some of the strongest selective pressures shaping permafrost microbial communities. The spatial variation in metabolic potential has primed communities for specific biogeochemical processes as soils thaw due to climate change, which could cause regional- to global- scale variation in C and nitrogen processing and greenhouse gas emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling freight mode choice using machine learning classifiers: a comparative study using Commodity Flow Survey (CFS) data

This study explores the usefulness of machine learning classifiers for modeling freight mode choice. We investigate eight commonly used machine learning classifiers, namely Naïve Bayes, Support Vector Machine, Artificial Neural Network, K-Nearest Neighbors, Classification and Regression Tree, Random Forest, Boosting and Bagging, along with the classical Multinomial Logit model. US 2012 Commodity Flow Survey data are used as the primary data source; we augment it with spatial attributes from secondary data sources. The performance of the classifiers is compared based on prediction accuracy results. The current research also examines the role of sample size and training-testing data split ratios on the predictive ability of the various approaches. In addition, the importance of variables is estimated to determine how the variables influence freight mode choice. The results show that the tree-based ensemble classifiers perform the best. Specifically, Random Forest produces the most accurate predictions, closely followed by Boosting and Bagging. With regard to variable importance, shipment characteristics, such as shipment distance, industry classification of the shipper and shipment size, are the most significant factors for freight mode choice decisions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Spatio-Temporal Modeling of Field Surveyed Backsheet Degradation

Assessing photovoltaic module backsheet durability is critical to increasing module lifetime. Lab based accelerating testing has recently failed to predict large scale failures of widely adopted polymeric materials. Field surveyed data is critical to assess the performance of component lifetime. Using a documented field survey protocol, 13 field surveys where conducted. Each measurement is encoded with it's spatial location in respect to the other modules. By combining field survey data on degradation predictors with real time satellite weather data, data-driven predictive models of backsheet degradation were trained. LOESS models were constructed to investigate the spatial dependence of measurements. It was found that micro-climatic effects like tree-lines, ground surface changes, and elevation changes effected the magnitude and variance of the measurements. A GAM model was created to predict the value of degradation based on measured predictors. The model includes variables on the climate of the system and the location of each measurement in the PV mounting structure. The model performed well with an adj.R 2 of 0.95 for yellowness index prediction. The model was cross-validated using k-folds.

backsheet↗

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves

This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Building Alternative Indices of Socioeconomic Status for Population Modeling in Data-Sparse Contexts (Short Paper)

Population modeling requires clear definitions of socioeconomic status (SES) to ensure overall estimate accuracy and locate potentially underserved subpopulations. This presents a challenge as SES can be measured in myriad ways and for divergent purposes, and the data required to calculate these metrics may be lacking, particularly in low and middle income countries (LMICs). To support more refined SES measurement, we explore improvements upon the Demographic and Health Survey’s (DHS) Wealth Index (DHS-WI) using alternative characterizations of SES based on multiple correspondence analysis (MCA) and hierarchical clustering. We produce the MCA-derived metrics first on a full suite of household economic, demographic, and dwelling variables, then on a reduced set of occupant-only SES characteristics. We explore the utility of these metrics relative to DHS-WI based on their ability to 1) differentiate DHS household types and 2) identify mixtures of SES levels within DHS samples and mapped at high spatial resolution. We find that our full suite MCA yields more clearly defined SES segments and that our reduced MCA delineates occupant SES most clearly, suggesting potential pathways to improve upon the DHS-WI in future population modeling efforts for LMICs.

Cunningham, Angela↗

Extrapolation Domains for Aggregating Environmental Outcomes from Local to Regional Levels

Billions of dollars are invested every year to run field experiments to quantify the response of crops to new technologies and associated environmental outcomes. Given the diversity of environments where crop production occurs, conducting these research studies without a robust framework for research site selection and upscaling results to larger spatial scales is inefficient. In this project, researchers from the University of Nebraska-Lincoln used their unique Technology Extrapolation Domains framework (TED) as a tool to guide the selection of experimental sites and as basis for aggregating and validating environmental outcomes from local to regional levels. In the present project, we first used the TED framework to evaluate the current distribution and area coverage of the current SMARTFARM sites. The purpose was to showcase how it is possible to use the TED framework to guide site selection and extrapolate results over space. Additionally, the original TED framework was expanded to account for other factors influencing environmental outcomes by inclusion of three additional variables: soil organic matter, soil texture, and topographic wetness index. The resulting expanded framework (TED-E) was validated using nitrogen (N) losses from corn in the United States as a case study. To do so, we used N balance as a proxy to N losses and we evaluated the capacity of the framework to explain variation in N balance across fields and across countries. We found that the TED-E has substantially higher predictive power than the original TED framework to explain spatial variation in N balance. However, improvements in predictive power with the TED-E tool come at the expense of a higher number of TEDs needed to achieve a given crop area coverage compared with the original TED framework. We conclude that the new TED-E framework can help aggregate and extrapolate environmental outcomes from research sites to regional levels and improve the visualization of their spatial patterns across the United States. An online version of the framework is available at: https://www.toolted.org/

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Seasonal Performance Characterization of a Gen3 Particle-Based Concentrating Solar Plant With a Spatially Resolved Transient Thermal Storage Model

Particle-based Gen3 Concentrating Solar Power (CSP) can be paired with high-temperature power cycles (>700 °C) and can have built-in long duration (≥10 hours) thermal energy storage if the working particles are stored properly in thermal energy storage bins. Although high-temperature and long-duration thermal energy storage can mitigate daily intermittencies in solar irradiation, seasonal variability in local meteorological conditions can still have a significant impact on the overall performance of CSP systems. Aside from daily cloud coverage affecting incident solar radiation, wind speed and ambient temperature are also significant variables regarding system heat attenuation, component efficiency, and overall solar conversion efficiency. In this work, we present simulation results for a Gen3 CSP prototype system in operation over four weeks throughout the year in Albuquerque, NM. The meteorological conditions are taken directly from the TMY3 data at the Albuquerque International Sunport, where the hourly Direct Normal Irradiation (DNI), wind speed, and ambient temperature are of particular interest. An investigation of the sensitivity of individual components like storage and ducting to the local meteorological conditions is provided and extended to the overall performance of the CSP system. The results from this study show that the particle inlet temperature at the particle-to-sCO2 heat exchanger can change as fast as 30 °C/min under standard operation in a passive mode.

Plewe, Kaden (ORCID:0000000286826879)↗

Genotype–environment associations across spatial scales reveal the importance of putative adaptive genetic variation in divergence

Abstract Identifying areas of high evolutionary potential is a judicious strategy for developing conservation priorities in the face of environmental change. For wide‐ranging species occupying heterogeneous environments, the evolutionary forces that shape distinct populations can vary spatially. Here, we investigate patterns of genomic variation and genotype–environment associations in the hermit thrush ( Catharus guttatus ), a North American songbird, at broad (across the breeding range) and narrow spatial scales (at a hybrid zone). We begin by building a genoscape or map of genetic variation across the breeding range and find five distinct genetic clusters within the species, with the greatest variation occurring in the western portion of the range. Genotype–environment association analyses indicate higher allelic turnover in the west than in the east, with measures of temperature surfacing as key predictors of putative adaptive genomic variation rangewide. Since broad patterns detected across a species' range represent the aggregate of many locally adapted populations, we investigate whether our broadscale analysis is consistent with a finer scale analysis. We find that top rangewide temperature‐associated loci vary in their clinal patterns (e.g., steep clines vs. fixed allele frequencies) across a hybrid zone in British Columbia, suggesting that the environmental predictors and the associated candidate loci identified in the rangewide analysis are of variable importance in this particular region. However, two candidate loci exhibit strong concordance with the temperature gradient in British Columbia, suggesting a potential role for temperature‐related barriers to gene flow and/or temperature‐driven ecological selection in maintaining putative local adaptation. This study demonstrates how patterns identified at the broad (macrogeographic) scale can be validated by investigating genotype–environment correlations at the local (microgeographic) scale. Furthermore, our results highlight the importance of considering the spatial distribution of putative adaptive variation when assessing population‐level sensitivity to climate change and other stressors.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modelling climate analogue regions for a central European city

In this study, we describe a methodology to derive climate analogue cities for spatially highly resolved future climate scenarios. For the computation, a reduced and in hindsight bias-adjusted EURO-CORDEX EUR-11 dataset is used based on two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). A total of 389 European cities are processed by the algorithm, which uses five statistical climate variables (2-m air temperature average and amplitude, precipitation sum and amplitude, correlation between 2-m air temperature average and precipitation sum). Additionally, extreme weather events (hot days, summer days, tropical nights, extreme precipitation events) are calculated for further comparison and validation. Finding an appropriate analogue permits a more accurate derivation and depiction of necessary climate adaptation efforts and therefore assist decision-making in city planning. As an example of our method, we searched for plausible climate twins for the mid-sized city of Aachen (Germany) at the end of the twenty-first century. Our results show that the French city of Dijon is highly likely to become Aachen’s climate twin by the end of the century for RCP4.5. As for the scenario RCP8.5, no clear European analogue city could be determined, indicating that the city might enter a novel climate. The nearest match suggests the cities of Florence and Prato in Tuscany. However, considering climate indices, the encompassing region of the French–Spanish city triangle Bordeaux–Toulouse–Bilbao is a better fit. The developed algorithm can be applied to any of the cities included in the dataset.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dynamics of streamflow permanence in a headwater network: Insights from catchment-scale model simulations

The hillslope and channel dynamics that govern streamflow permanence in headwater systems have important implications for ecosystem functioning and downstream water quality. Recent advancements in process-based, semi-distributed hydrologic models that build upon empirical studies of streamflow permanence in well-monitored headwater catchments show promise for characterizing the dynamics of streamflow permanence in headwater systems. However, few process-based models consider the continuum of hillslope-stream network connectivity as a control on streamflow permanence in headwater systems. The objective of this study was to expand a process-based, catchment-scale hydrologic model to better understand the spatiotemporal dynamics of headwater streamflow permanence and to identify controls of streamflow expansion and contraction in a headwater network. Further, we aimed to develop an approach that enhanced the fidelity of model simulations, yet required little additional data, with the intent that the model might be later transferred to catchments with limited long-term and spatially explicit measurements. This approach facilitated network-scale estimates of the controls of streamflow expansion and contraction, albeit with higher degrees of uncertainty in individual reaches due to data constraints. Our model simulated that streamflow permanence was highly dynamic in first-order reaches with steep slopes and variable contributing areas. The simulated stream network length ranged from nearly 98±2% of the geomorphic channel extent during wet periods to nearly 50±10% during dry periods. The model identified a discharge threshold of approximately 1 mm d –1 , above which the rate of streamflow expansion decreases by nearly an order of magnitude, indicating a lack of sensitivity of streamflow expansion to hydrologic forcing during high-flow periods. Overall, we demonstrate that process-based, catchment-scale models offer important insights on the controls of streamflow permanence, despite uncertainties and limitations of the model. We encourage researchers to increase data collection efforts and develop benchmarks to better evaluate such models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geology and elevation shape bacterial assembly in Antarctic endolithic communities

Ice free areas of continental Antarctica are among the coldest and driest environments on Earth, and yet, they support surprisingly diverse and highly adapted microbial communities. Endolithic growth is one of the key adaptations to such extreme environments and often represents the dominant life-form. Despite growing scientific interest, little is known of the mechanisms that influence the assembly of endolithic microbiomes across these harsh environments. Here, we used metagenomics to examine the diversity and assembly of endolithic bacterial communities across Antarctica within different rock types and over a large elevation range. While granite supported richer and more heterogeneous communities than sandstone, elevation had no apparent effect on taxonomic richness, regardless of rock type. Conversely, elevation was clearly associated with turnover in community composition, with the deterministic process of variable selection driving microbial assembly along the elevation gradient. The turnover associated with elevation was modulated by geology, whereby for a given elevation difference, turnover was consistently larger between communities inhabiting different rock types. Overall, selection imposed by elevation and geology appeared stronger than turnover related to other spatially-structured environmental drivers. Our findings indicate that at the cold-arid limit of life on Earth, geology and elevation are key determinants of endolithic bacterial heterogeneity. This also suggests that warming temperatures may threaten the persistence of such extreme-adapted organisms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗