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At least 1,765 records · Page 98

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of PWR spent fuel observables to operational and model parameters

Sensitivity and uncertainty analyses of spent nuclear fuel (SNF) observables - decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rate - to operational and model parameters have been performed. A 2D model representing a typical PWR 17x17 UO{sub 2} fuel assembly has been taken as reference. The Serpent code and ENDF/B-VII.1 evaluated nuclear data library have been used for the analyses. Relative uncertainty of decay heat, neutron and γ-ray emission rates due to Monte Carlo counting statistics, as well as the number of fuel pin radial regions required for an accurate characterization of SNF neutron emission, have been estimated. A parametric study has been carried out to investigate the impact of the homogenization to an average value of the fuel and moderator temperature, boron concentration power and burnup on the prediction of the selected observables. In addition, linear sensitivity coefficients have been calculated. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

The 2.4 μ m Galaxy Luminosity Function as Measured Using WISE . II. Sample Selection

The WISE satellite surveyed the entire sky multiple times in four infrared (IR) wavelengths (3.4, 4.6, 12, and 22 $μ$m). This all-sky IR photometric survey makes it possible to leverage many of the large publicly available spectroscopic redshift surveys to measure galaxy properties in the IR. While characterizing the cross-matching of WISE data to a single survey is a straightforward process, doing it with six different redshift surveys takes a fair amount of space to characterize adequately, because each survey has unique caveats and characteristics that need addressing. This work describes a data set that results from matching five public redshift surveys with the AllWISE data release, along with a reanalysis of the data described in Lake et al. The combined data set has an additional flux limit of 80 $μ$Jy (19.14 AB mag) in WISE's W1 filter, imposed in order to limit it to targets with high completeness and reliable photometry in the AllWISE data set. Consistent analysis of all of the data is only possible if the color bias discussed in Ilbert et al. is addressed (e.g., the techniques explored in Lake et al.). Finally, the sample defined herein is used in a companion paper in this series to measure the luminosity function of galaxies at 2.4 μm rest-frame wavelength, and the selection process of the sample is optimized for this purpose.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Milky Way Satellite Census -- II. Galaxy-Halo Connection Constraints Including the Impact of the Large Magellanic Cloud

The population of Milky Way (MW) satellites contains the faintest known galaxies, and thus provides essential insight into galaxy formation and dark matter microphysics. Here, we combine a model of the galaxy--halo connection with newly derived observational selection functions based on searches for satellites in photometric surveys over nearly the entire high-Galactic-latitude sky. In particular, we use cosmological zoom-in simulations of MW-like halos that include realistic Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC) analogs to fit the position-dependent MW satellite luminosity function. We report decisive evidence for the statistical impact of the LMC on the MW satellite population due to an estimated $6.5\pm 1.5$ observed LMC-associated satellites, consistent with the number of LMC satellites inferred from $\textit{Gaia}$ proper motion measurements, confirming the predictions of cold dark matter models for the existence of satellites within satellite halos. Moreover, we infer that the LMC fell into the MW within the last $2\ \rm{Gyr}$ at high confidence. Based on our detailed full-sky modeling, we find that the faintest observed satellites inhabit halos with peak virial masses below $2.2\times 10^{8}\ M_{\rm{\odot}}$ at $95\%$ confidence, and we place the first robust constraints on the fraction of halos that host galaxies in this regime. We predict that the faintest detectable satellites occupy halos with peak virial masses above $10^{6}\ M_{\rm{\odot}}$, highlighting the potential for powerful galaxy formation and dark matter constraints from future dwarf galaxy searches.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Superclustering with the Atacama Cosmology Telescope and Dark Energy Survey. II. Anisotropic Large-scale Coherence in Hot Gas, Galaxies, and Dark Matter

Statistics that capture the directional dependence of the baryon distribution in the cosmic web enable unique tests of cosmology and astrophysical feedback. We use constrained oriented stacking of thermal Sunyaev–Zel’dovich (tSZ) maps to measure the anisotropic distribution of hot gas 2.5–40 Mpc away from galaxy clusters embedded in massive filaments and superclusters. The cluster selection and orientation (at a scale of ∼15 Mpc) use Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 data, while expanded tSZ maps from the Atacama Cosmology Telescope Data Release 6 enable a ∼3× more significant measurement of the extended gas compared to the technique’s proof-of-concept. Decomposing stacks into cosine multipoles of order m , we detect a dipole ( m = 1) and quadrupole ( m = 2) at 8σ–10σ, as well as evidence for m = 4 signal at up to 6σ, indicating sensitivity to late-time non-Gaussianity. We compare to Cardinal simulations with spherical gas models pasted onto dark matter halos. The fiducial tSZ data can discriminate between two models that deplete pressure differently in low-mass halos (mimicking astrophysical feedback), preferring higher average pressure in extended structures. However, uncertainty in the amount of cosmic infrared background contamination reduces the constraining power. Additionally, we apply the technique to DES galaxy density and weak lensing to study for the first time their oriented relationships with tSZ. In the tSZ-to-lensing relation, averaged on 7.5 Mpc (transverse) scales, we observe dependence on redshift but not shape or radial distance. Thus, on large scales, the superclustering of gas pressure, galaxies, and total matter is coherent in shape and extent.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Concepts for conformal and body-axis attitude information for spatial awareness presented in a helmet-mounted display

A piloted simulation study has been conducted to evaluate two methods of presenting attitude information in a helmet-mounted display (HMD) for spatial awareness in a fighter airplane. One method, the body-axis concept, displayed the information relative to the body axis of the airplane. The quantitative results of this study favored the body-axis concept. Although no statistically significant differences were noted for either the pilots' understanding of roll attitude or target position, the pilots made pitch judgment errors three times more often with the conformal display. The subjective results showed the body-axis display did not cause attitude confusion, a prior concern with this display. In the posttest comments, the pilots overwhelmingly selected the body-axis display as the display of choice.

Jones, Denise R.↗

Structural Life and Reliability Metrics: Benchmarking and Verification of Probabilistic Life Prediction Codes

Over the past two decades there has been considerable effort by NASA Glenn and others to develop probabilistic codes to predict with reasonable engineering certainty the life and reliability of critical components in rotating machinery and, more specifically, in the rotating sections of airbreathing and rocket engines. These codes have, to a very limited extent, been verified with relatively small bench rig type specimens under uniaxial loading. Because of the small and very narrow database the acceptance of these codes within the aerospace community has been limited. An alternate approach to generating statistically significant data under complex loading and environments simulating aircraft and rocket engine conditions is to obtain, catalog and statistically analyze actual field data. End users of the engines, such as commercial airlines and the military, record and store operational and maintenance information. This presentation describes a cooperative program between the NASA GRC, United Airlines, USAF Wright Laboratory, U.S. Army Research Laboratory and Australian Aeronautical & Maritime Research Laboratory to obtain and analyze these airline data for selected components such as blades, disks and combustors. These airline data will be used to benchmark and compare existing life prediction codes.

Litt, Jonathan S.↗

Investigating the Utility of Hyperspectral Sounders in the 9.6 μm Band to Improve Ozone Analyses

Currently, hyperspectral sounder brightness temperatures assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System - Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (GEOS-ADAS) are limited to assimilating temperature and moisture. The ozone sensitive 9.6 micron region is sensed by several hyperspectral sounders including AIRS (Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder), IASI (Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer), and CrIS (Cross-track Infrared Sounder). Direct assimilation of brightness temperatures in the 9.6 micron region have been used previously to improve ozone analyses. This has recently been achieved by ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast) (Dragani and McNally, 2013; Eresmaa et al., 2017), and while every system presents its challenges, it should be possible to take advantage of this spectral region using the GEOS-ADAS. For this study, channels were selected from available operational subsets evaluating information content, and minimizing inter-channel correlation. Additionally, information such as channel selections made by other studies, and vertical sensitivities of ozone and temperature were considered in developing the study. The analyses produced show improvements verified against ozonesondes taken from SHADOZ (Southern Hemisphere Additional Ozonesondes), and WOUDC (World Ozone and Ultraviolet Data Center). The addition of ozone channels does degrade forecast skill in the Tropics, on the border of statistical significance. Overall, the addition of these channels in some form could improve ozone analyses in the GEOS-ADAS.

Karpowicz, Bryan M.↗

SNPP and N20 VIIRS Thermal Emissive Bands Calibration Comparison Using the GEO-LEO Double Difference Method

The VIIRS instruments onboard the SNPP and NOAA-20 satellites have identical spatial resolutions and the same spectral bands. Similar prelaunch tests and identical on-orbit calibration algorithms established the foundation for their consistent Earth measurements. Calibration assessment and consistency comparisons are useful to maintain their performance and measurement accuracy. Simultaneous nadir overpasses (SNO) between two satellites are commonly used for a direct calibration comparison between sensors. However, there are no SNO between SNPP and NOAA20. Hence, a reference sensor or Earth measurements are normally used to bridge the comparison. As a reference, we focus on the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) onboard the GOES-R series spacecraft and its application to the SNPP and NOAA-20 VIIRS comparison. GOES16 and GOES17are the first two satellites of the GOES-R series and were launched on November 19, 2016, and March 12, 2018, respectively. Their operational positions are on the equator with longitudes of 75.2° West over land and 137.2° West over ocean, respectively. The ABI is the primary imaging instrument of these spacecrafts for the Earth’s weather, oceans, and environment, with observations (every 10 minutes) that provide vast data for GEO-Low Earth orbit (LEO)and LEO-LEO comparisons utilizing it as an intermediate reference sensor. VIIRS and ABI have spectrally matched bands and can have simultaneous measurements over any selected site every day. The simultaneous measurements over the same site also have various scan angles. These features provide advantages for a VIIRS-to-ABI comparison. The spectral response function difference between instruments, sites selected, and view angles will have effects on the instrument measurements. Their impacts on the calibration comparison, including the use of double differences, will be discussed. By collecting VIIRS measurements over a large range of view angles, the view angle effect will also be investigated. The collection of an ample amount of data provides an advantage for statistical analyses and potential big data applications to sensor calibration assessments. This method can also be applied to other sensor calibration comparison and performance assessments, such as GOES16 and GOES17 ABI, and Terra and Aqua MODIS.

Tiejun Chang↗

High Statistics Measurements of $ν_μ$ Charged-Current Single $π^{+}$ Production with Zero Pion Kinetic Energy Threshold in MINERvA

This Letter presents measurements of single-differential cross sections of $ν_μ$-induced charged-current 1 $π^{+}$ production on scintillator using the MINERvA detector at Fermilab. These measurements use traditional track-based pion reconstruction as well as pions identified solely via Michel electron decays, allowing measurement of kinetic energies from 0 to 350 MeV. In total, 91,843 events were selected with $W_{exp}$$<$ 1.4 GeV/c. Differential cross sections as a function of pion and muon kinematic variables are presented and compared with the predictions of several neutrino event generators. Overall, modern pion production models tend to agree with data at the ends of the kinematic regions probed, but are discrepant with the main regions of the phase space probed by up to 15% in muon observables and up to 20% in pion observables. No model describes any of the variables well, and this result highlights model areas that require improvement for the next generation of neutrino oscillation experiments.

Granados, E. [Guanajuato U.]↗

Assessing overall building energy performance of a large population of residential single-family homes using limited field data

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), through the Building Energy Codes Program (BECP), supports building energy code development and implementation processes to achieve the maximum practicable, cost-effective improvements in energy efficiency while providing safe, healthy buildings for occupants. Currently, there is a lack of statistically representative data that shows how energy codes are implemented in the field and the energy savings opportunities that exist. To address this gap, DOE initiated a research study targeted at new residential single-family homes in 8 states starting in the fall of 2014. The study comprises of a baseline phase to determine current levels of compliance with the key energy provisions of the residential building energy code, identify issues, and calculate potential energy savings from improved compliance; a second phase implementing education, training and outreach activities designed to increase targeted code compliance; and a post-study phase to measure the impact of the training and outreach activities compared to the baseline phase. Initial analyses determined the code requirements with the largest energy impact and the minimum number of observations required to detect statistically significant differences in energy use. Data was collected in the field during a single site visit to avoid bias from repeat visits. However, the single site visit principle prevented energy simulation of individual homes due to the lack of all required model inputs. To address this, energy simulation was conducted using Pacific Northwest National Laboratory’s prototype building models and employing bootstrap random sampling on the data collected from all homes visited. The modeled energy consumption using the observed field data was evaluated relative to that associated with the minimum code requirements and potential savings associated with improved compliance of select items were assessed. This paper discusses the methodology developed for this field study, and presents the results and findings from the baseline phase.

Xie, YuLong↗

An Exploratory Exercise in Taguchi Analysis of Design Parameters: Application to a Shuttle-to-space Station Automated Approach Control System

The chief goals of the summer project have been twofold - first, for my host group and myself to learn as much of the working details of Taguchi analysis as possible in the time allotted, and, secondly, to apply the methodology to a design problem with the intention of establishing a preliminary set of near-optimal (in the sense of producing a desired response) design parameter values from among a large number of candidate factor combinations. The selected problem is concerned with determining design factor settings for an automated approach program which is to have the capability of guiding the Shuttle into the docking port of the Space Station under controlled conditions so as to meet and/or optimize certain target criteria. The candidate design parameters under study were glide path (i.e., approach) angle, path intercept and approach gains, and minimum impulse bit mode (a parameter which defines how Shuttle jets shall be fired). Several performance criteria were of concern: terminal relative velocity at the instant the two spacecraft are mated; docking offset; number of Shuttle jet firings in certain specified directions (of interest due to possible plume impingement on the Station's solar arrays), and total RCS (a measure of the energy expended in performing the approach/docking maneuver). In the material discussed here, we have focused on single performance criteria - total RCS. An analysis of the possibility of employing a multiobjective function composed of a weighted sum of the various individual criteria has been undertaken, but is, at this writing, incomplete. Results from the Taguchi statistical analysis indicate that only three of the original four posited factors are significant in affecting RCS response. A comparison of model simulation output (via Monte Carlo) with predictions based on estimated factor effects inferred through the Taguchi experiment array data suggested acceptable or close agreement between the two except at the predicted optimum point, where a difference outside a rule-of-thumb bound was observed. We have concluded that there is most likely an interaction effect not provided for in the original orthogonal array selected as the basis for our experimental design. However, we feel that the data indicates that this interaction is a mild one and that inclusion of its effect will not alter the location of the optimum.

Deal, Don E.↗

Time reversal symmetry of generalized quantum measurements with past and future boundary conditions

Here we expand the time reversal symmetry arguments of quantum mechanics, originally proposed by Wigner in the context of unitary dynamics, to contain situations including generalized measurements for monitored quantum systems. We propose a scheme to derive the time-reversed measurement operators by considering the Schrödinger picture dynamics of a qubit coupled to a measuring device, and show that the time-reversed measurement operators form a Positive Operator Valued Measure (POVM) set. We present three particular examples to illustrate time reversal of measurement operators: (1) the Gaussian spin measurement, (2) a dichotomous POVM for spin, and (3) the measurement of qubit fluorescence. We then propose a general rule to unravel any rank two qubit measurement, and show that the backward dynamics obeys the retrodicted equations of the forward dynamics starting from the time reversed final state. We demonstrate the time reversal invariance of dynamical equations using the example of qubit fluorescence. We also generalize the discussion of a statistical arrow of time for continuous quantum measurements introduced by Dressel et al. (Phys Rev Lett 119:220507, 2017): we show that the backward probabilities can be computed from a process similar to retrodiction from the time-reversed final state, and extend the definition of an arrow of time to ensembles prepared with pre- and post-selections, where we obtain a non-vanishing arrow of time in general. We discuss sufficient conditions for when time’s arrow vanishes and show our method also captures the contributions to time’s arrow due to natural physical processes like relaxation of an atom to its ground state. As a special case, we recover the time reversibility of the weak value as its complex conjugate using our method, and discuss how our conclusions differ from the time-symmetry argument of Aharonov–Bergmann–Lebowitz rule.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Natural circulation flow distribution within a multi-branch manifold

Currently, natural circulation systems are extensively used in different applications but they need to be fully characterized to understand their behavior under different boundary conditions. CFD tools provide means to analyze these systems, yet, they need additional experimental data to be validated. Experimental measurements of the flow distribution within a multiple-branch manifold under natural circulation have been conducted using PIV. Measurements have demonstrated that the flow within the risers behave similarly, differing between 6.68% and 12.63% in speed and vertical velocity, and between 8.7% and 17.5% for vertical turbulence strength at selected heights. A back-flow region has been observed at the bottom of the main channel, with an increasing cross sectional area moving far from the manifold inlet, while stream-wise flow occupies the top section of the main channel. The experimental activity has also produced a complete experimental data set with first and second order statistics of the flow that can be used for CFD code validation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

International challenge to predict the impact of radioxenon releases from medical isotope production on a comprehensive nuclear test ban treaty sampling station

Abstract The International Monitoring System (IMS) is part of the verification regime for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban-Treaty Organization (CTBTO). At entry-into-force, half of the 80 radionuclide stations will be able to measure concentrations of several radioactive xenon isotopes produced in nuclear explosions, and then the full network may be populated with xenon monitoring afterward (Bowyer et al., 2013). Fission-based production of 99Mo for medical purposes also releases radioxenon isotopes to the atmosphere (Saey, 2009). One of the ways to mitigate the effect of emissions from medical isotope production is the use of stack monitoring data, if it were available, so that the effect of radioactive xenon emissions could be subtracted from the effect from a presumed nuclear explosion, when detected at an IMS station location. To date, no studies have addressed the impacts the time resolution or data accuracy of stack monitoring data have on predicted concentrations at an IMS station location. Recently, participants from seven nations used atmospheric transport modeling to predict the time-history of 133Xe concentration measurements at an IMS station in Germany using stack monitoring data from a medical isotope production facility in Belgium. Participants received only stack monitoring data and used the atmospheric transport model and meteorological data of their choice. Some of the models predicted the highest measured concentrations quite well (a high composite statistical model comparison rank or a small mean square error with the measured values). The results suggest release data on a 15 min time spacing is best. The model comparison rank and ensemble analysis suggests that combining multiple models may provide more accurate predicted concentrations than any single model. Further research is needed to identify optimal methods for selecting ensemble members and those methods may depend on the specific transport problem. None of the submissions based only on the stack monitoring data predicted the small measured concentrations very well. The one submission that best predicted small concentrations also included releases from nuclear power plants. Modeling of sources by other nuclear facilities with smaller releases than medical isotope production facilities may be important in discriminating those releases from releases from a nuclear explosion.

133Xe↗

Attitude towards the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste in a municipal solid waste management system. A case study

Highlights: • Attitude towards incorporating biowaste selective collection is analysed. • Willingness to participate and to pay in biowaste selective collection is obtained. • Socioeconomic aspects affecting WtParticipate and WtPay are identified. - Abstract: European waste legislation has been encouraging for years the incorporation of selective collection systems for the biowaste fraction. European countries are therefore incorporating it into their current municipal solid waste management (MSWM) systems. However, this incorporation involves changes in the current waste management habits of households. In this paper, the attitude of the public towards the incorporation of selective collection of biowaste into an existing MSWM system in a Spanish municipality is analysed. A semi-structured telephone interview was used to obtain information regarding aspects such as: level of participation in current waste collection systems, willingness to participate in selective collection of biowaste, reasons and barriers that affect participation, willingness to pay for the incorporation of the selective collection of biowaste and the socioeconomic characteristics of citizens who are willing to participate and pay for selective collection of biowaste. The results showed that approximately 81% of the respondents were willing to participate in selective collection of biowaste. This percentage would increase until 89% if the Town Council provided specific waste bins and bags, since the main barrier to participate in the new selective collection system is the need to use specific waste bin and bags for the separation of biowaste. A logit response model was applied to estimate the average willingness to pay, obtaining an estimated mean of 7.5% on top of the current waste management annual tax. The relationship of willingness to participate and willingness to pay for the implementation of this new selective collection with the socioeconomic variables (age, gender, size of the household, work, education and income) was analysed. Chi-square independence tests and binary logistic regression was used for willingness to participate, not being obtained any significant relationship. Chi-square independence tests, ordinal logistic regression and ordinary linear regression was applied for willingness to pay, obtaining statistically significant relationship for most of the socioeconomic variables.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Assessing Historical Variability of South Asian Monsoon Lows and Depressions With an Optimized Tracking Algorithm

Abstract Cyclonic low‐pressure systems (LPS) produce abundant rainfall in South Asia, where they are traditionally categorized as monsoon lows, monsoon depressions, and more intense cyclonic storms. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has tracked monsoon depressions for over a century, finding a large decline in their number in recent decades, but their methods have changed over time and do not include monsoon lows. This study presents a fast, objective algorithm for identifying monsoon LPS and uses it to assess interannual variability and trends in reanalyses. Variables and thresholds used in the algorithm are selected to best match a subjectively analyzed LPS data set while minimizing disagreement between four reanalyses in a training period. The stream function of 850 hPa horizontal wind is found to be optimal in this sense; it is less noisy than vorticity and represents the complete nondivergent wind, even when flow is not geostrophic. Using this algorithm, LPS statistics are computed for five reanalyses, and none show a detectable trend in monsoon depression counts since 1979. Both the Japanese 55‐year Reanalysis (JRA‐55) and the IMD data set show a step‐like reduction in depression counts when they began using geostationary satellite data, in 1979 and 1982, respectively; the 1958–2018 linear trend in JRA‐55, however, is smaller than in the IMD data set, and its error bar includes 0. There are more LPS in seasons with above‐average monsoon rainfall and in La Niña years, but few other large‐scale modes of interannual variability are found to modulate LPS counts, lifetimes, or track length consistently across reanalyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Statistical mentoring at early training and career stages

At Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), statistical scientists develop solutions for a variety of national security challenges through scientific excellence, typically as members of interdisciplinary teams. At LANL, mentoring is actively encouraged and practiced to develop statistical skills and positive career-building behaviors. Mentoring activities targeted at different career phases from student to junior staff are an important catalyst for both short and long term career development. This article discusses mentoring strategies for undergraduate and graduate students through internships as well as for postdoctoral research associates and junior staff. Topics addressed include project selection, progress, and outcome; intellectual and social activities that complement the student internship experience; key skills/knowledge not typically obtained in academic training; and the impact of such internships on students’ careers. Experiences and strategies from a number of successful mentorships are presented. Feedback from former mentees obtained via a questionnaire is incorporated. As a result, these responses address some of the benefits the respondents received from mentoring, helpful contributions and advice from their mentors, key skills learned, and how mentoring impacted their later careers.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Beyond the plane-parallel approximation for redshift surveys

Redshift -space distortions privilege the location of the observer in cosmological redshift surveys, breaking the translational symmetry of the underlying theory. This violation of statistical homogeneity has consequences for the modelling of clustering observables, leading to what are frequently called 'wide-angle effects'. We study these effects analytically, computing their signature in the clustering of the multipoles in configuration and Fourier space. We take into account both physical wide-angle contributions as well as the terms generated by the galaxy selection function. Similar considerations also affect the way power spectrum estimators are constructed. We quantify in an analytical way the biases that enter and clarify the relation between what we measure and the underlying theoretical modelling. The presence of an angular window function is also discussed. Motivated by this analysis, we present new estimators for the three dimensional Cartesian power spectrum and bispectrum multipoles written in terms of spherical Fourier-Bessel coefficients. In conclusion, we show how the latter have several interesting properties, allowing in particular a clear separation between angular and radial modes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗