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NASA NTRS1990

The Importance of the Measurement of the Unsteady Wake of the Aeroassist Flight Experiment Vehicle: A White Paper

The High Frequency Radiometer (HFR) is the only instrument on the Aeroassist Flight Experiment (AFE) with sufficient temporal resolution to discern the frequency of unsteady wake oscillations. Determining both the frequency and amplitude of wake unsteadiness during AFE atmospheric entry is essential for reliably predicting the geometry and motion of the wake of future Aeroassisted Space Transfer Vehicles (ASTV). These parameters directly affect the location and size of the pay- load and the weight of the required afterbody heat protection. The purpose of the AFE is to validate the technologies required for the design of ASTVs, which will be used to exploit Earth-lunar space. This validation will be conducted at a combination of vehicle size, altitude, and velocity not obtainable in ground-based facilities. The AFE will provide the experimental flight data needed to improve our understanding of hypersonic-wake physics and to validate computational predictions of the aerodynamic and heating loads, including afterbody radiative heating loads, on an ASTV. Reliable prediction of ASTV wake flows will ensure that payloads are located within the shear-layer envelope and will determine the amount of thermal protection the payloads require. Specifically, understanding the temporal nature of the wake unsteadiness is important for two reasons. Most importantly, analysis of ground-based experiments suggests that wake unsteadiness results in a variation of as much as +/- 5 deg in the shear-flow turning angle. This angle must be reliably predicted to avoid shear-layer impingement on the vehicle afterbody, which would result in heating rates of about 10 W/sq cm, of the same order as on the forebody stagnation point. Secondly, the energy associated with wake unsteadiness will reduce the static enthalpy of the wake fluid and cause an error of as much as 30% in the amount of predicted wake radiative heating. Therefore, the HFR flight data, which will quantify the frequency and amplitude of the wake unsteadiness, are required for the verification of computational models of ASTV flowfields. Measurement of wake unsteadiness has been endorsed by the Peer Science Steering Group and the AFE Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Working Group. The Peer Science Steering Group has stressed that a reliable measurement of the wake unsteadiness is fundamental because incorporating unsteadiness represents a substantial challenge to the CFD community, and a reliable measurement will raise confidence in the computer simulation. The AFE CFD Working Group has stated that 44 any data which would prove the existence and effects of unsteady flow would be extremely valuable.

Strawa, A. W.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased salinity decreases annual gross primary productivity at a Northern California brackish tidal marsh

Tidal marshes sequester 11.4–87.0 Tg C yr –1 globally, but climate change impacts can threaten the carbon capture potential of these ecosystems. Tidal marshes occur across a wide range of salinity, with brackish marshes (0.5–18 ppt (parts per thousand)) dominating global tidal marsh extents. A diverse mix of freshwater- and saltwater-tolerant plant and microbial communities has led researchers to predict that carbon cycling in brackish wetlands may be less sensitive to changes in salinity than fresh- or saltwater wetlands. Rush Ranch, a well-monitored brackish tidal wetland of the San Francisco Bay National Estuarine Research Reserve, experiences highly variable annual salinity regimes. Within a five-year period (2014–2018), Rush Ranch experienced particularly extreme drought-induced salinization during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons. During drought years, tidal channel salinity rose from a 15 year baseline of 4.7 ppt to growing season peaks of 10.3 ppt and 12.5 ppt. Continuous eddy covariance data from 2014 to 2018 demonstrate that during drought summers, gross primary productivity (GPP) decreased by 24%, whereas ecosystem respiration remained similar among all five years. Stepwise linear regression revealed that salinity, not air temperature or tidal height, was the dominant driver of annual GPP. A random forest model trained to predict GPP based on environmental data from low salinity years (i.e. naive to salinization) significantly over predicted GPP in drought years. When growing season salinities were doubled, annual estimates of net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 decreased by up to 30%. These results provide ecosystem-scale evidence that increased salinity influences CO 2 fluxes dominantly through reductions in GPP. This relationship provides a starting point for incorporating the effect of changes in salinity in wetland carbon models, which could improve wetland carbon forecasting and management for climate resilience.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Detecting the permafrost carbon feedback: talik formation and increased cold-season respiration as precursors to sink-to-source transitions

Abstract. Thaw and release of permafrost carbon (C) due to climate change is likely to offset increased vegetation C uptake in northern high-latitude (NHL) terrestrial ecosystems. Models project that this permafrost C feedback may act as a slow leak, in which case detection and attribution of the feedback may be difficult. The formation of talik, a subsurface layer of perennially thawed soil, can accelerate permafrost degradation and soil respiration, ultimately shifting the C balance of permafrost-affected ecosystems from long-term C sinks to long-term C sources. It is imperative to understand and characterize mechanistic links between talik, permafrost thaw, and respiration of deep soil C to detect and quantify the permafrost C feedback. Here, we use the Community Land Model (CLM) version 4.5, a permafrost and biogeochemistry model, in comparison to long-term deep borehole data along North American and Siberian transects, to investigate thaw-driven C sources in NHL (> 55∘ N) from 2000 to 2300. Widespread talik at depth is projected across most of the NHL permafrost region (14 million km2) by 2300, 6.2 million km2 of which is projected to become a long-term C source, emitting 10 Pg C by 2100, 50 Pg C by 2200, and 120 Pg C by 2300, with few signs of slowing. Roughly half of the projected C source region is in predominantly warm sub-Arctic permafrost following talik onset. This region emits only 20 Pg C by 2300, but the CLM4.5 estimate may be biased low by not accounting for deep C in yedoma. Accelerated decomposition of deep soil C following talik onset shifts the ecosystem C balance away from surface dominant processes (photosynthesis and litter respiration), but sink-to-source transition dates are delayed by 20–200 years by high ecosystem productivity, such that talik peaks early (∼ 2050s, although borehole data suggest sooner) and C source transition peaks late (∼ 2150–2200). The remaining C source region in cold northern Arctic permafrost, which shifts to a net source early (late 21st century), emits 5 times more C (95 Pg C) by 2300, and prior to talik formation due to the high decomposition rates of shallow, young C in organic-rich soils coupled with low productivity. Our results provide important clues signaling imminent talik onset and C source transition, including (1) late cold-season (January–February) soil warming at depth (∼ 2 m), (2) increasing cold-season emissions (November–April), and (3) enhanced respiration of deep, old C in warm permafrost and young, shallow C in organic-rich cold permafrost soils. Our results suggest a mosaic of processes that govern carbon source-to-sink transitions at high latitudes and emphasize the urgency of monitoring soil thermal profiles, organic C age and content, cold-season CO2 emissions, and atmospheric 14CO2 as key indicators of the permafrost C feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content

Here, an ensemble of initialized decadal prediction (DP) experiments using the Community Climate System Model, version 4 (CCSM4) shows considerable skill at forecasting changes in North Atlantic upper-ocean heat content and surface temperature up to a decade in advance. Coupled model ensembles were integrated forward from each of 10 different start dates spanning from 1961 to 2006 with ocean and sea ice initial conditions obtained from a forced historical experiment, a Coordinated Ocean-Ice Reference Experiment with Interannual forcing (CORE-IA), which exhibits good correspondence with late twentieth-century ocean observations from the North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) region. North Atlantic heat content anomalies from the DP ensemble correlate highly with those from the CORE-IA simulation after correcting for a drift bias. In particular, the observed large, rapid rise in SPG heat content in the mid-1990s is successfully predicted in the ensemble initialized in January of 1991. A budget of SPG heat content from the CORE-IA experiment sheds light on the origins of the 1990s regime shift, and it demonstrates the extent to which low-frequency changes in ocean heat advection related to the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation dominate temperature tendencies in this region. Similar budgets from the DP ensembles reveal varying degrees of predictive skill in the individual heat budget terms, with large advective heat flux anomalies from the south exhibiting the highest correlation with CORE-IA. The skill of the DP in this region is thus tied to correct initialization of ocean circulation anomalies, while external forcing is found to contribute negligibly (and for incorrect reasons) to predictive skill in this region over this time period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Attribution of the role of climate change in the forest fires in Sweden 2018

In this study, we analyse the role of climate change in the forestfires that raged through large parts of Sweden in the summer of 2018 from ameteorological perspective. This is done by studying the Canadian FireWeather Index (FWI) based on sub-daily data, both in reanalysis data sets(ERA-Interim, ERA5, the Japanese 55 year Reanalysis, JRA-55, and Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2, MERRA-2) and three large-ensemble climatemodels (EC-Earth, weather@home, W@H, and Community Earth System Model, CESM) simulations. The FWI, based on reanalysis, correlates well with the observed burnt area in summer (r=0.6 to 0.8). We find that the maximum FWI in July 2018 had return times of ~24 years (90 % CI, confidence interval, > 10 years) for southern and northern Sweden. Furthermore, we find a negative trend of the FWI for southern Sweden over the 1979 to 2017 time period in the reanalyses, yielding a non-significant reduced probability of such an event. However, the short observational record, large uncertainty between the reanalysis products and large natural variability of the FWI give a large confidence interval around this number that easily includes no change, so we cannot draw robust conclusions from reanalysis data. The three large-ensembles with climate models point to a roughly 1.1 (0.9 to 1.4) times increased probability (non-significant) for such events in the current climate relative to preindustrial climate. For a future climate (2 °C warming), we find a roughly 2 (1.5 to 3) times increased probability for such events relative to the preindustrial climate. The increased fire weather risk is mainly attributed to the increase intemperature. The other main factor, i.e. precipitation during summer months, isprojected to increase for northern Sweden and decrease for southern Sweden. We, however, do not find a clear change in prolonged dry periods in summer months that could explain the increased fire weather risk in the climate models. In summary, we find a (non-significant) reduced probability of such eventsbased on reanalyses, a small (non-significant) increased probability due to global warming up to now and a more robust (significant) increase in the risk for such events in the future based on the climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Global Carbon Budget 2025

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe and synthesise datasets and methodologies to quantify the five major components of the global carbon budget and their uncertainties. Fossil CO 2 emissions (E FOS ) are based on energy and cement production data. Emissions from land-use change (E LUC ) are estimated by bookkeeping models based on land-use data. The global atmospheric CO 2 growth rate (G ATM ) is computed from changes in concentration measured at surface stations. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the ocean (S OCEAN ) is estimated with global ocean biogeochemistry models and observation-based fCO 2 -products. The global net uptake of CO 2 by the land (S LAND ) is estimated with dynamic global vegetation models. Additional lines of evidence are provided by atmospheric inversions, atmospheric oxygen measurements, ocean interior observation-based estimates, and Earth System Models. This year, we introduced corrections on the E LUC , S OCEAN and S LAND estimates. The sum of all sources and sinks results in the carbon budget imbalance (B IM ), a measure of imperfect data and incomplete understanding of the contemporary carbon cycle. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ. For the year 2024, E FOS increased by 1.1 % relative to 2023, with fossil emissions at 10.3 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1 (including the cement carbonation sink, 0.2 GtC yr −1 ), E LUC was 1.3 ± 0.7 GtC yr −1 , for total anthropogenic CO 2 emissions of 11.6 ± 0.9 GtC yr −1 (42.4 ± 3.2 GtCO2 yr −1 ). Also, for 2024, G ATM was 7.9 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 (3.73 ± 0.1 ppm yr −1 ), 2.2 GtC above the 2023 growth rate. SOCEAN was 3.4 ± 0.4 GtC yr −1 and S LAND was 1.9 ± 1.1 GtC yr −1 , leaving a large negative B IM (−1.7 GtC yr −1 ), suggesting that the total sink or G ATM is strongly overestimated in 2024. The global atmospheric CO 2 concentration averaged over 2024 reached 422.8 ± 0.1 ppm. Preliminary data for 2025 suggest an increase in E FOS relative to 2024 of +1.0 % (0.2 % to 1.7 %) globally, and atmospheric CO 2 concentration increasing by 2.1 ppm reaching 425.6 ppm, 53 % above the pre-industrial level (around 278 ppm in 1750). Overall, the mean and trend in the components of the global carbon budget are consistently estimated over the period 1959–2024, with a near-zero overall budget imbalance, although discrepancies of up to around 1 GtC yr −1 persist for the representation of annual to decadal variability in CO 2 fluxes. Comparison of estimates from multiple approaches and observations shows: (1) a persistent large uncertainty in the estimate of land-use change emissions, (2) a low agreement between the different methods on the magnitude of the land CO 2 flux in the northern extra-tropics, and (3) a discrepancy between the different methods on the mean ocean sink. This living data update documents changes in methods and datasets applied to this most-recent global carbon budget as well as evolving community understanding of the global carbon cycle. The data presented in this work are available at https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2025 (Friedlingstein et al., 2025c).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monte Carlo Simulations of Polarized Radiative Transfer in Neutron Star Atmospheres

Soft X-ray emission from neutron stars affords powerful diagnostic tools for uncovering their surface and interior properties, as well as their geometric configurations. In the atmospheres of neutron stars, the presence of magnetic fields alters the photon-electron scattering cross sections, resulting in nontrivial angular dependence of intensity and polarization of the emergent signals. This paper presents recent developments of our Monte Carlo simulation, MAGTHOMSCATT, which tracks the complex electric field vector for each photon during its transport. Our analysis encompasses the anisotropy and polarization characteristics of X-ray emission for field strengths ranging from nonmagnetic to extremely magnetized regimes that are germane to magnetars. In the very low field domain, we reproduced the numerical solution to the radiative transfer equation for nonmagnetic Thomson scattering, and provided analytical fits for the angular dependence of the intensity and the polarization degree. These fits can be useful for studies of millisecond pulsars and magnetic white dwarfs. By implementing a refined injection protocol, we show that, in the magnetar regime, the simulated intensity and polarization pulse profiles of emission from extended surface regions becomes invariant with respect to the ratio of photon (ω) and electron cyclotron (ω B ) frequencies once ω/ω B ≲ 0.01. This circumvents the need for simulations pertinent to really high magnetic field strengths, which are inherently slower. Our approach will be employed elsewhere to model observational data to constrain neutron star geometric parameters and properties of emitting hot spots on their surfaces.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2017

Effects of Variable Eccentricity on the Climate of an Earth-Like World

The Kepler era of exoplanetary discovery has presented the Astronomical community with a cornucopia of planetary systems very different from the one which we inhabit. It has long been known that Jupiter plays a major role in the orbital parameters of Mars and its climate, but there is also a long-standing belief that Jupiter would play a similar role for Earth if not for its large moon. Using a three dimensional general circulation model (3-D GCM) with a fully-coupled ocean we simulate what would happen to the climate of an Earth-like world if Mars did not exist, but a Jupiter-like planet was much closer to Earths orbit. We investigate two scenarios that involve evolution of the Earth-like planets orbital eccentricity from 0 to 0.066 on a time scale of 4500 years, and from 0 to 0.283 over 6500 years. We discover that during most of the 6500 year scenario the planet would experience a moist greenhouse effect when near periastron. This could have implications for the ability of such a world to retain an ocean on time scales of 109 years. More Earth-like planets in multi-planet systems will be discovered as we continue to survey the skies and the results herein show that the proximity of large gas giant planets may play an important role in the habitabilty of these worlds. These are the first such 3-D GCM simulations using a fully-coupled ocean with a planetary orbit that evolves over time due to the presence of a giant planet.

Stability↗
DOE OSTI2018

Final Report on "Collaborative Research to Narrow Uncertainties in Precipitation and the Hydrological Cycle in Climate Models"

The central objectives of this work have been to explore and improve the depiction of precipitation and related processes in climate models by developing and analyzing observations and their gridded analyses, and developing new approaches and metrics. All three groups worked with the NCAR-based Community Earth System Model (CESM) and international community Climate Model Inter-comparison Project version 5 (CMIP5) models in various ways. At NCAR and SUNYA an initial focus was on the observational record, including updating of the river discharge dataset. A major focus at NCAR was extensive work on new datasets of hourly precipitation from CMORPH (observations) and CESM, and commentary on and validation of the CESM. SUNYA contributed to the comparison and evaluation of existing precipitation products widely used in climate research, the analysis of precipitation characteristics in CESM and other CMIP5 models, and decadal precipitation variability associated with decadal variability. At NCAR and SUNYA work was focused on the frequency and intensity of precipitation, including their dependence on the temporal and spatial resolution of the data used to calculate the frequency and intensity, as well as additional analyses on the effects of precipitation data uncertainties on the estimated historical drying trends. LLNL focused on the diurnal cycle. New insights have resulted in the characteristics of precipitation (frequency, intensity, amount, duration, diurnal cycle, covariability in space and time) and evaluation of these in models. In general models perform poorly and this provides a much-needed focus on what aspects of models are greatly in need of improvement. A substantial number of papers have now been published on these topics. The focus on the characteristics of precipitation and not just amount also provides a natural entrée into examining the extremes of precipitation, that are very important to the general public in terms of impacts. Examples are the deluges from Florence and Harvey, and extensive work has been performed on the latter. On the other side of the coin, considerable work has been performed on dry spells and drought, including improvements in a drought index. There has been considerable outreach to the general public, especially through the media, but also via talks and lectures, and a strong educational component at SUNYA. For example, the Harvey paper has an altimetrics rating of 827 and is the highest for any paper from that journal, it is at the 99th percentile of all papers of the same age, and is in the top 95 percent of all papers. The energy cycle and ocean heat content has been another focus. The entire atmospheric energy cycle has been reformulated and applied to the latest data to include effects from the enthalpy of precipitation. Relationships between ocean heat content and sea level rise have also been extensively explored in observations and models, with new insights into the role of Mount Pinatubo volcanic eruption on distorting and hiding the accelerating sea level rise. This work has been also widely featured in news media. The “year without a summer” has also been explored in the past using models, and how changes in the vertical structure and stability of the ocean with a warming climate may influence a future such volcanic event by amplifying the surface temperature response.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2018

Integrated pre-feasibility study for CO 2 geological storage in the Cascadia Basin, offshore Washington State, British Columbia

The Cascadia CarbonSAFE project conducted a pre-feasibility study to evaluate technical and nontechnical aspects of storing 50 million metric tons (MMT) of carbon dioxide in a safe, ocean basalt reservoir offshore Washington State and British Columbia. Sub-seafloor basalts are very common on Earth and enable geological mineralization as a long-term storage mechanism, permanently sequestering the carbon in solid rock form. This project evaluated the offshore storage complex, developed potential industrial source/transport scenarios, built an inventory of existing geophysical/geological data and environmental monitoring capabilities, conducted laboratory studies and reservoir modeling to determine storage capacity, and analyzed economic factors, regulatory requirements, and project management risks. Our team included researchers at Columbia University in New York, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) in Washington, University of Victoria in British Columbia, University of California at Santa Cruz, and GHG Underground in Maine, as well as collaborators at University of Iceland in Reykjavik and University of Washington in Saint Louis. In the study region, large emitters (>100,000 MT/year) generate a total of approximately 40 MMT annually from stationary sources, such as power plants, refineries, ammonia production, and mineral processing plants. Five potential industry source/transport scenarios were identified (three in U.SA S. and two in Canada) to potentially provide 50 MMT of carbon dioxide to the offshore reservoir. One scenario included net carbon-negative sources that would reduce atmospheric levels. The inventory of existing data illustrated that basalt properties in the region are potentially beneficial for long-term storage. Permeability is on the order of 0.1 to 1 Darcies within the uppermost 600 m of ocean crust and density-derived porosity reaches 10–20% in thin layers that provide act as flow channels and provide access to porous and permeable basalt. Fine-grained sediments overlying basalt provide a low-permeability barrier separating the storage reservoir from the overlying ocean. Subsurface monitoring of the storage complex benefits from a unique opportunity close proximity of to the nearby NEPTUNE cabled seafloor observatory, which actively transmits data to shore and could be used to monitor reservoir properties. Injection pressure changes, reservoir chemistry, seismicity, well head corrosion, and potential leakage monitoring would be feasible in real time. Using existing data and published models, the STOMP-CO 2 modeling code developed at PNNL was used to simulate carbon dioxide injection, storage, and mineralization in the reservoir. Preliminary simulations indicate that a 50 MMT carbon dioxide plume injected over a 20-year period remains well within the reservoir area, both laterally and vertically, for at least a 50-year period of post-injection monitoring. Laboratory studies on core samples from Cascadia measured dissolution rates in CO 2 –basalt–seawater mixtures and indicated large variability in rates with the potential for complete mineralization. Compared to published data, the dissolution rate measured in these samples is faster, decreasing the time until full conversion to carbonate minerals would occur. Adding geochemical reactivity in the STOMP-CO 2 model indicates that carbon dioxide would be fully converted to carbonate minerals in 135 years or less after injection ceases. The project assessed the viability and costs for the five scenarios using either dedicated offshore pipelines or shipping vessels. Carbon dioxide capture costs were not considered. Shipping incurred lower upfront CAPEX costs, and because most viable sources were located near the shore and waterways, shipping is preferred; no dedicated carbon dioxide pipelines exist in the region. The project also considered potential risks from mixed-use impacts on surrounding lands and ocean areas, such as active use by commercial and recreational fisherman, and other community considerations in planning for public engagement in the future. Other project risks were identified, including project management, permitting and compliance, and financing, as well as technical issues such as long-term instrumentation, plume migration, and model development. Geological concerns like reservoir permeability, seal, and induced seismicity held relatively low risk. The regulatory framework for offshore storage in the U.S. and Canada may be covered by general legal/regulatory programs, but is not yet fully defined. Existing programs appear to restrict the transportation of carbon dioxide across national boundaries (e.g., Canada to U.S.) and its sub-seabed disposal in some circumstances. Our assessment suggests that developing specific and separate pilot projects will help to advance the technical feasibility and regulatory requirements in each country, and lessons learned from such activities may be transferable elsewhere around the globe.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2013

Implementation and Initial Evaluation of the Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model in the Community Earth System Model

The Glimmer Community Ice Sheet Model (Glimmer-CISM) has been implemented in the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Glimmer-CISM is forced by a surface mass balance (SMB) computed in multiple elevation classes in the CESM land model and downscaled to the ice sheet grid. Ice sheet evolution is governed by the shallow-ice approximation with thermomechanical coupling and basal sliding. This paper describes and evaluates the initial model implementation for the Greenland Ice Sheet (GIS). The ice sheet model was spun up using the SMB from a coupled CESM simulation with preindustrial forcing. The model's sensitivity to three key ice sheet parameters was explored by running an ensemble of 100 GIS simulations to quasi equilibrium and ranking each simulation based on multiple diagnostics. With reasonable parameter choices, the steady-state GIS geometry is broadly consistent with observations. The simulated ice sheet is too thick and extensive, however, in some marginal regions where the SMB is anomalously positive. The top-ranking simulations were continued using surface forcing from CESM simulations of the twentieth century (1850–2005) and twenty-first century (2005–2100, with RCP8.5 forcing). In these simulations the GIS loses mass, with a resulting global-mean sea level rise of 16 mm during 1850–2005 and 60 mm during 2005–2100. This mass loss is caused mainly by increased ablation near the ice sheet margin, offset by reduced ice discharge to the ocean. Projected sea level rise is sensitive to the initial geometry, showing the importance of realistic geometry in the spun-up ice sheet.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Retrospectives: Intersection of Spaceflight Stressors and Microbial Risk to Crew and Craft

OVERVIEW The spaceflight environment has several unique stressors that affect the health of both the crew and the spacecraft. An area of continued, albeit incomplete, study is the interaction of these stressors on microbial populations inherent to both astronauts and spacecraft surfaces and systems. A primary concern is the potential for the spaceflight environment to perturb the phenotype of these populations towards negative outcomes for crew and craft. In order to effectively mitigate these potential risks, they must first be characterized. We performed a retrospective literature analysis to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the affects of ionizing radiation and elevated CO2 on relevant microbial populations. The results of these retrospectives will guide next steps in the decisions of what (if any) further studies should be pursued and to guide decisions of the need for countermeasures. STRESSORS Ionizing radiation. The health risk involved with increased exposure to cosmic radiation has been studied in crew for 35+ years, with human health and cancer risk being the main focus. However, space radiation could also affect both the resident microorganisms aboard the ISS and the normal, healthy astronaut microbiomes that are of direct concern for crew health. A retrospective review of over 250 publications was accomplished looking at the impact of cumulative ionizing radiation doses lower than 3 Gy (chronic or acute) on microbial populations. Elevated CO2. The health risk involved with elevated atmospheric CO2 in spacecraft, primarily focusing on human toxicological risks, is understudied. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg), which is significantly higher than terrestrial levels (0.04%). Whether these elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard spacecraft influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crew members (gut, nasal,skin microbiomes) is not known. A retrospective review was accomplished looking at the impact of chronic CO2 exposure up to 0.7% (5 mm Hg) for up to 6 months and acute exposure up to 2.6% (20 mm Hg) for up to 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBIOME OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The microbiome of the built spacecraft environment has been sampled consistently over the course of human spaceflight and significant advancements have been made in identifying microbial populations on the ISS. The dominant source of microbes on spacecraft surfaces are human-derived. Once in the spacecraft built environment,the extreme environment selects for features that enhance survival. While efforts to understand potential antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity of ISS isolates is robust, there is little to no understanding of which spaceflight environmental stressors, to include ionizing radiation or elevated CO2, drive the evolutionary trajectory of spacecraft-associated microbial populations. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBE-HOST INTERACTIONS The host-microbiome field has emerged as an important factor in human health on Earth as well in spaceflight. The field is struggling with the complexity of the system under investigation as there is substantial taxonomic and functional heterogeneity in these communities, making it difficult to establish clear stimulus-response dynamics.Taxonomic characterization is the norm; however, the functional role of each community member is key to linking environmental perturbations to potential dysbiosis. For both ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, the likely target of the perturbation is the host tissue, not the microbes themselves.. Any resulting changes to the microbial community composition and/or function is likely a result of adapting to those changes in the host physiology. RECOMMENDATIONS Emphasize functional characterization as opposed to taxonomic characterization of microbial communities.Increase the number of investigations using chronic, spaceflight-relevant doses of ionizing radiation. MoBE studies should move away from observational studies towards predictive modeling of community dynamics. Continue to develop scale-down models, such as tissues-on-a-chip & defined microbial communities. Focus on the crew response to elevated CO2 over MoBE considerations. Assess how direct contact with the hypercapnic environment affects skin microbiome dynamics.

Countermeasures↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Retrospectives: Current State of Knowledge on the Intersection of Spaceflight Stressors and Microbial Risks to Crew and Craft

OVERVIEW The spaceflight environment has several unique stressors that affect the health of both the crew and the spacecraft. An area of continued, albeit incomplete, study is the interaction of these stressors on microbial populations inherent to both astronauts and spacecraft surfaces and systems. A primary concern is the potential for the spaceflight environment to perturb the phenotype of these populations towards negative outcomes for crew and craft. In order to effectively mitigate these potential risks, they must first be characterized. We performed a retrospective literature analysis to assess the current state of knowledge regarding the affects of ionizing radiation and elevated CO2 on relevant microbial populations. The results of these retrospectives will guide next steps in the decisions of what (if any) further studies should be pursued and to guide decisions of the need for countermeasures. STRESSORS Ionizing radiation. The health risk involved with increased exposure to cosmic radiation has been studied in crew for 35+ years, with human health and cancer risk being the main focus. However, space radiation could also affect both the resident microorganisms aboard the ISS and the normal, healthy astronaut microbiomes that are of direct concern for crew health. A retrospective review of over 250 publications was accomplished looking at the impact of cumulative ionizing radiation doses lower than 3 Gy (chronic or acute) on microbial populations. Elevated CO2. The health risk involved with elevated atmospheric CO2 in spacecraft, primarily focusing on human toxicological risks, is understudied. The current Spaceflight Maximum Allowance Concentration for 24-hour average CO2 is 0.4% (3 mm Hg), which is significantly higher than terrestrial levels (0.04%). Whether these elevated ambient CO2 levels aboard spacecraft influence the diversity and phenotypic responses of the resident microbial communities from both the spacecraft environment (air, surface, water) and crew members (gut, nasal, skin microbiomes) is not known. A retrospective review was accomplished looking at the impact of chronic CO2 exposure up to 0.7% (5 mm Hg) for up to 6 months and acute exposure up to 2.6% (20 mm Hg) for up to 24 hours. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBIOME OF THE BUILT ENVIRONMENT The microbiome of the built spacecraft environment has been sampled consistently over the course of human spaceflight and significant advancements have been made in identifying microbial populations on the ISS. The dominant source of microbes on spacecraft surfaces are human-derived. Once in the spacecraft built environment, the extreme environment selects for features that enhance survival. While efforts to understand potential antibiotic resistance and pathogenicity of ISS isolates is robust, there is little to no understanding of which spaceflight environmental stressors, to include ionizing radiation or elevated CO2, drive the evolutionary trajectory of spacecraft-associated microbial populations. CONCLUSIONS: MICROBE-HOST INTERACTIONS The host-microbiome field has emerged as an important factor in human health on Earth as well in spaceflight. The field is struggling with the complexity of the system under investigation as there is substantial taxonomic and functional heterogeneity in these communities, making it difficult to establish clear stimulus-response dynamics. Taxonomic characterization is the norm; however, the functional role of each community member is key to linking environmental perturbations to potential dysbiosis. For both ionizing radiation and elevated CO2, the likely target of the perturbation is the host tissue, not the microbes themselves.. Any resulting changes to the microbial community composition and/or function is likely a result of adapting to those changes in the host physiology. RECOMMENDATIONS Emphasize functional characterization as opposed to taxonomic characterization of microbial communities. Increase the number of investigations using chronic, spaceflight-relevant doses of ionizing radiation. MoBE studies should move away from observational studies towards predictive modeling of community dynamics. Continue to develop scale-down models, such as tissues-on-a-chip & defined microbial communities. Focus on the crew response to elevated CO2 over MoBE considerations. Assess how direct contact with the hypercapnic environment affects skin microbiome dynamics.

retrospective↗
NASA NTRS2010

Identifying Aerosol Type/Mixture from Aerosol Absorption Properties Using AERONET

Aerosols are generated in the atmosphere through anthropogenic and natural mechanisms. These sources have signatures in the aerosol optical and microphysical properties that can be used to identify the aerosol type/mixture. Spectral aerosol absorption information (absorption Angstrom exponent; AAE) used in conjunction with the particle size parameterization (extinction Angstrom exponent; EAE) can only identify the dominant absorbing aerosol type in the sample volume (e.g., black carbon vs. iron oxides in dust). This AAE/EAE relationship can be expanded to also identify non-absorbing aerosol types/mixtures by applying an absorption weighting. This new relationship provides improved aerosol type distinction when the magnitude of absorption is not equal (e.g, black carbon vs. sulfates). The Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) data provide spectral aerosol optical depth and single scattering albedo - key parameters used to determine EAE and AAE. The proposed aerosol type/mixture relationship is demonstrated using the long-term data archive acquired at AERONET sites within various source regions. The preliminary analysis has found that dust, sulfate, organic carbon, and black carbon aerosol types/mixtures can be determined from this AAE/EAE relationship when applying the absorption weighting for each available wavelength (Le., 440, 675, 870nm). Large, non-spherical dust particles absorb in the shorter wavelengths and the application of 440nm wavelength absorption weighting produced the best particle type definition. Sulfate particles scatter light efficiently and organic carbon particles are small near the source and aggregate over time to form larger less absorbing particles. Both sulfates and organic carbon showed generally better definition using the 870nm wavelength absorption weighting. Black carbon generation results from varying combustion rates from a number of sources including industrial processes and biomass burning. Cases with primarily black carbon showed improved definition in the 870nm wavelength absorption weighting due to the increased absorption in the near-infrared wavelengths, while the 440nm wavelength provided better definition when black carbon mixed with dust. Utilization of this particle type scheme provides necessary information for remote sensing applications, which needs a priori knowledge of aerosol type to model the retrieved properties especially over semi-bright surfaces. In fact, this analysis reveals that the aerosol types occurred in mixtures with varying magnitudes of absorption and requires the use of more than one assumed aerosol mixture model. Furthermore, this technique will provide the aerosol transport model community a data set for validating aerosol type.

Giles, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Transition of High-Resolution NASA MODIS Sea Surface Temperatures into the WRF Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed a Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) sea surface temperature (SST) composite at 2-km resolution that has been implemented in version 3 of the National Weather Service (NWS) Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The WRF EMS is a complete, full physics numerical weather prediction package that incorporates dynamical cores from both the Advanced Research WRF (ARW) and the Non-hydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM). The installation, configuration, and execution of either the ARW or NMM models is greatly simplified by the WRF EMS to encourage its use by NWS Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) and the university community. The WRF EMS is easy to run on most Linux workstations and clusters without the need for compilers. Version 3 of the WRF EMS contains the most recent public release of the WRF-NMM and ARW modeling system (version 3 of the ARW is described in Skamarock et al. 2008), the WRF Pre-processing System (WPS) utilities, and the WRF Post-Processing program. The system is developed and maintained by the NWS National Science Operations Officer Science and Training Resource Coordinator. To initialize the WRF EMS with high-resolution MODIS SSTs, SPoRT developed the composite product consisting of MODIS SSTs over oceans and large lakes with the NCEP Real-Time Global (RTG) filling data over land points. Filling the land points is required due to minor inconsistencies between the WRF land-sea mask and that used to generate the MODIS SST composites. This methodology ensures a continuous field that adequately initializes all appropriate arrays in WRF. MODIS composites covering the Gulf of Mexico, western Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean are generated daily at 0400, 0700, 1600, and 1900 UTC corresponding to overpass times of the NASA Aqua and Terra polar orbiting satellites. The MODIS SST product is output in gridded binary-1 (GRIB-1) data format for a seamless incorporation into WRF via the WPS utilities. The full-resolution, 1-km MODIS product is sub-sampled to 2-km grid spacing due to limitations in handling very large dimensions in the GRIB-1 data format. The GRIB-1 files are posted online at ftp://ftp.nsstc.org/sstcomp/WRF/, which is directly accessed by the WRF EMS scripts. The MODIS SST composites are also downloaded to the EMS data server, which is accessible by the WRF EMS users and NWS WFOs. The SPoRT MODIS SST composite provides the model with superior detail of the ocean gradients around Florida and surrounding waters, whereas the operational RTG SST typically depicts a relatively smooth field and is not able to capture sharp horizontal gradients in SST. Differences of 2-3 C are common over small horizontal distances, leading to enhanced SST gradients on either side of the Gulf Stream and along the edges of the cooler shelf waters. These sharper gradients can in turn produce atmospheric responses in simulated temperature and wind fields as depicted in LaCasse et al. Differences in atmospheric verification statistics over a several month study were generally small in the vicinity of south Florida; however, the validation of SSTs at specific buoy locations revealed important improvements in the biases and RMS errors, especially in the vicinity of the cooler shelf waters off the east-central Florida coast. A current weakness in the MODIS SST product is the occurrence of occasional discontinuities caused by high latency in SST coverage due to persistent cloud cover. An enhanced method developed by Jedlovec et al. (2009, GHRSST User Symposium) reduces the occurrence of these problems by adding Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer -- EOS (AMSR-E) SST data to the compositing process. Enhanced SST composites are produced over the ocean regions surrounding the Continental U.S. at four times each day corresponding to Terra and Aqua equator crossing times. For a given day and overpass time, both MODInd AMSR-E data from the previous seven days form a collection used in the compositing. At each MODIS pixel, cloud-free SST values from the collection are used to form a weighted average based on their latency (number of days from the current day). In this way, recent SST data are given more weight than older data. One of the primary issues involved in incorporating the AMSR-E microwave data in the composites is the tradeoff between the decreased spatial resolution of the AMSR-E data (25 km) and the increased coverage due to its near all-weather capability. Currently, the AMSR-E is given a weight of 20% compared to MODIS data, thereby preserving the spatial structure observed in the MODIS data. Day-time (night-time) AMSR-E SST data from Aqua are used with both Terra and Aqua MODIS day-time (night-time) SST data sets.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Global Surface Net-Radiation at 5 km from MODIS Terra

Reliable and fine resolution estimates of surface net-radiation are required for estimating latent and sensible heat fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere. However, currently, fine resolution estimates of net-radiation are not available and consequently it is challenging to develop multi-year estimates of evapotranspiration at scales that can capture land surface heterogeneity and are relevant for policy and decision-making. We developed and evaluated a global net-radiation product at 5 km and 8-day resolution by combining mutually consistent atmosphere and land data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on board Terra. Comparison with net-radiation measurements from 154 globally distributed sites (414 site-years) from the FLUXNET and Surface Radiation budget network (SURFRAD) showed that the net-radiation product agreed well with measurements across seasons and climate types in the extratropics (Wilmott's index ranged from 0.74 for boreal to 0.63 for Mediterranean sites). Mean absolute deviation between the MODIS and measured net-radiation ranged from 38.0 ± 1.8 W.m -2 in boreal to 72.0 ± 4.1 W.m -2 in the tropical climates. The mean bias was small and constituted only 11%, 0.7%, 8.4%, 4.2%, 13.3%, and 5.4% of the mean absolute error in daytime net-radiation in boreal, Mediterranean, temperate-continental, temperate, semi-arid, and tropical climate, respectively. To assess the accuracy of the broader spatiotemporal patterns, we upscaled error-quantified MODIS net-radiation and compared it with the net-radiation estimates from the coarse spatial (1° x 1°) but high temporal resolution gridded net-radiation product from the Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES). Our estimates agreed closely with the net-radiation estimates from the CERES. Difference between the two was less than 10W.m -2 in 94% of the total land area. MODIS net-radiation product will be a valuable resource for the science community studying turbulent fluxes and energy budget at the Earth's surface.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Climatic Impact‐Driver Framework for Assessment of Risk‐Relevant Climate Information

Abstract The climate science and applications communities need a broad and demand‐driven concept to assess physical climate conditions that are relevant for impacts on human and natural systems. Here, we augment the description of the “climatic impact‐driver” (CID) approach adopted in the Working Group I (WGI) contribution to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. CIDs are broadly defined as “physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, and extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. Depending on system tolerance, CIDs and their changes can be detrimental, beneficial, neutral, or a mixture of each across interacting system elements and regions.” We give background information on the IPCC Report process that led to the development of the 7 CID types (heat and cold, wet and dry, wind, snow and ice, coastal, open ocean, and other) and 33 distinct CID categories, each of which may be evaluated using a variety of CID indices. This inventory of CIDs was co‐developed with WGII to provide a useful collaboration point between physical climate scientists and impacts/risk experts to assess the specific climatic phenomena driving sectoral responses and identify relevant CID indices within each sector. The CID Framework ensures that a comprehensive set of climatic conditions informs adaptation planning and risk management and may also help prioritize improvements in modeling sectoral dynamics that depend on climatic conditions. CIDs contribute to climate services by increasing coherence and neutrality when identifying and communicating relevant findings from physical climate research to risk assessment and planning activities.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Influence of Anomalous Biomass Emissions on ENSO in CESM2

Abstract The influence of biomass burning (BB) aerosols arising from wildfires and agricultural fires on the transient coupled evolution of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is explored in Community Earth System Model, version 2 (CESM2). For both El Niño and La Niña, two 20-member ensembles are generated from initial states that are predisposed to evolve into ENSO events. For each ENSO phase, one ensemble is forced with the observed BB emissions during satellite-era ENSO events while the other is forced with a climatological annual cycle, with the responses to anomalous BB emissions estimated from interensemble differences. It is found that the regional responses to anomalous BB emissions occur mainly during boreal fall, which is also the time of the climatological seasonal maximum in emissions. Transient responses are identified in precipitation, clouds, and radiation in both the tropics and extratropics. At the onset of El Niño, these include increased precipitation in the northern branch of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and an enhancement of cloud albedo and amount across the Maritime Continent and eastern subtropical Pacific Ocean. Additional responses are identified through the course of El Niño and successive La Niña events, the net effect of which is to strengthen sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the eastern Pacific Ocean during El Niño and warm the tropical Pacific Ocean during La Niña. These responses improve the simulation of ENSO power, diversity, and asymmetry in CESM2. Significance Statement Biomass burning emissions from both wildfires and agricultural fires during ENSO act as a climate feedback, as they are both driven by fire weather anomalies tied to ENSO and influence clouds, radiation, and precipitation on a global scale. While the largest biomass burning (BB) emissions emanate mainly from Indonesia, other regions also exhibit systematic responses. When simulated in CESM2, the emissions collectively impact the flows of energy across the tropical Pacific Ocean in a spatially and temporally complex fashion, with the net effect of improving CESM2’s simulation of ENSO events.

Fasullo, John T. [National Center for Atmospheric ↗