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DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot: Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology Performance and Dispatchability.

Since the SunShot Vision Study (DOE 2012) was published, global deployment of concentrating solar power (CSP) has increased threefold to nearly 4,500 MW, with a similar threefold increase in operational capacity to 1,650 MW within the United States. Growth in U.S. CSP capacity has primarily been driven by policy support at the state and federal levels. State-driven renewable portfolio standards (RPSs), combined with a 30% federal investment tax credit (ITC) and federal loan guarantees, provided the opportunity for CSP developers to kick-start construction of CSP plants throughout the Southwest. Figure ES-1 demonstrates that deployment and private- and public-sector research and development have led to dramatic cost reductions that have placed CSP well on the path to reaching the U.S. Department of Energy’s SunShot Initiative goal of 6 cents/kWh by 2020. In comparing the estimated capital costs from the SunShot Vision Study and the current analysis, we find that parabolic trough solar-field costs have fallen more rapidly than predicted, although the drop in solar-field costs was offset by the additional costs of moving from a wet-cooled power block in 2010 to a more expensive dry-cooled power block in 2015. The predicted 2015 decline in tower costs was in line with expectations, primarily driven by reduced heliostat costs. Figure ES-1 shows the reduction in levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) for both parabolic trough and tower systems, in addition to the projected 2020 SunShot target.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

On the Path to SunShot: Advancing Concentrating Solar Power Technology, Performance, and Dispatchability

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1983

Thermal-protection requirements for near-earth aero-assisted orbital-transfer vehicle missions

The thermal protection required for decelerating and maneuvering spacecraft by aerodynamic forces is determined for return missions from geosynchronous to low-earth orbits. The effect of vehicle configuration on surface heating rates and selection of heat-shield materials is analyzed. Effects of the current widespread estimates in the structure of atmospheric density are also evaluated. It is shown that nonequilibrium radiation can be a major source of surface heating during atmospheric entry and a significant factor to heat-shielding requirements. It is also demonstrated that drag-brake concepts have application to a broad range of orbital-transfer missions, because of the favorable trade-offs with aeromaneuvering vehicles in volumetric efficiency, retrothrust plane-change capability, and heat-protection requirements. In addition, the results of this study indicate that the aero-assist technique produces small penalties in vehicle payload capacity for drag-brake concepts, because of the system's heat protection requirements, and is highly attractive relative to all-propulsive orbital-change maneuvers.

Menees, G. P.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Short-Haul Revitalization Study Final Report

A feasibility study was performed for an advanced commercial short-haul aircraft to evaluate the potential for increased service for short-haul flights that operate out of regional and community airports. An analysis of potential origin-destination markets and trip distances resulted in a seat capacity selection of 48 passengers and a design range of 600 NM. A down-select of advanced technologies resulted in a hybrid-electric propulsion system being chosen as the primary enabling technology. A conceptual design of the advanced aircraft was developed, and a mission and sizing analysis was performed, comparing variants of the advanced aircraft with different levels of electrification. Fairly aggressive levels of electrification and battery specific energy are needed for the hybridelectric architecture to realize any benefit in terms of total energy cost for the 600 NM design mission. The development and operational costs were estimated for the advanced aircraft and compared to the baseline. This analysis demonstrated the negative effect of the cost to develop the hybrid-electric technology on the eventual operating cost. A market analysis was performed to determine possible passenger demand for the advanced shorthaul aircraft. According to the market analysis, there is potential demand for such an aircraft, but not necessarily in many of the smaller regional and community airports that were the intended beneficiaries of this new aircraft concept.

Marien, Ty V.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Development of Advanced Manufacturing Approaches for Single-Piece Launch Vehicle Structures

Advanced, near-net shape manufacturing methods have the potential to enable production of structures with fewer welds and reduced machining requirements. Two such methods that are suitable for the manufacturing of single-piece, stiffened barrel-shaped structures are presented. The first solution deployed existing manufacturing technology to produce a thick-walled barrel with integrally machined stiffeners. In this study, an 8-ft. diameter barrel was produced and subjected to a buckling test. Data on the manufacturing and testing of this barrel are provided and compared against the traditional multi-piece weld construction approach. The single-piece barrel resulted in a 28% greater load carrying capacity than the welded barrel. A second solution utilized a novel flow-forming technique to produce the barrel and stiffeners in one process without the need for welding or machining. This is an emerging manufacturing method known as the Integrally Stiffened Cylinder (ISC) process. This innovative process is being evaluated for launch vehicle and commercial aircraft manufacturing. The one-piece, stiffened ISC barrels, which have been successfully fabricated at 10 ft. in diameter, offer a direct replacement for conventional multi-piece, welded or riveted structures. A cost-benefit analysis for launch vehicle cryogenic propellant tanks estimated that the ISC process offers up to a 50% reduction in manufacturing costs and a 10% reduction in mass.

integrally stiffened cylinder (ISC)↗

DOE OSTI2020

Tribal Renewable Energy: Bishop Paiute Tribe, Residential Solar Program Phase II (Final Report)

The project consisted of the design, installation, inspection, and interconnection of 35 grid-tied, solar electric systems, totaled 123 kW rated capacity, on qualified existing low-income single-family homes located within the Bishop Paiute Reservation, which provide at least 65-79% savings in displaced electricity. Tribal job trainees were hired for each installation, gaining valuable job experience. Additionally, each homeowner was educated on energy efficiency and renewable energy. The overall project goal was to deploy clean energy systems in order to achieve the Bishop Paiute Tribe’s long-term goals of energy self-sufficiency, environmental protection, and better lives for our Tribal members and community. The energy displaced was 82.4 percent of total electricity used (exceeding estimated 65-79%)or over 170,000 kWh/year generating approximately $1.29 million worth of power for low-income families over their lifespans, while eliminating an estimated 2,640 tons of greenhouse gas emissions. This reduction makes a significant difference on the reservation giving more families money to spend on other essential items, while reducing their carbon footprint in this beautiful mountain community. Also, implementing these 35 systems provided a approximately 132 hours of paid solar installation work for tribal members. Training and good paying jobs are scarce on the reservation and solar is the fastest growing industry in CA and this training offered our members a real chance to learn and then get paid. The program is very significant to the family who qualified, as most families fall below the federal poverty guidelines, and many are living paycheck to paycheck. Overall, the triple impact of the Bishop Paiute Tribe Residential Solar Program Phase II— affordable energy for low-income families, on-site clean energy production, and hands-on solar installation jobs for local workers—these all help build the Tribe’s energy, economic, environmental, and social self-sufficiency and sovereignty amongst the most needy on the Reservation

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Novel Flow Sheet for Low Energy CO 2 Capture Enabled by Biocatalyst Delivery System

This report documents a preliminary Techno-Economic Assessment (TEA) for processes utilizing Akermin’s second generation biocatalyst delivery system to enhance AKM24, a non- volatile salt solution for CO 2 capture. Biocatalyst enhanced AKM24 offers the potential to reduce the cost of CO 2 capture in flue gas applications due to its improved equilibrium and stoichiometric properties that result in double the absorption capacity relative to previously demonstrated biocatalyst enhanced solvents. The study assumes a new supercritical pulverized coal fired power plant with a net output of 550 MWe after 90% CO 2 capture and uses the June 2011 cost basis (August 2012 update of Bituminous Baseline Study, or BBS). Power plant modeling, capital cost review, and economic calculations were provided by WorleyParsons. Rate-based CO2 capture process modeling and equipment sizing was performed by Akermin using AspenPlus® V8.4, customized to accurately predict thermodynamics, kinetics, and physical properties of the AKM-24 solvent based on available laboratory data. Equipment capital costs were estimated using Aspen Process Economic Analyzer™ which compared well with published baseline cost estimates. Quotes of equipment costs and power consumption for vacuum blower and CO 2 compression equipment were also provided by Man Diesel & Turbo. Three process scenarios were examined for Akermin biocatalyst enhanced solvent systems including: Case-1A: an absorption-desorption system operated with a reboiler pressure of 0.16 bara (60°C); Case-2A: an absorption-desorption system with moderate vacuum assisted regeneration at 0.40 bara (80°C); and finally, Case-2B: a conventional absorption-desorption system with near atmospheric pressure regeneration at 1.07 bara (105°C). The estimated increases in cost of electricity (ICOE) for these cases were $58.1/MWh, $47.3/MWh and $46.4/MWh, respectively. Case 2B had the best results for this analysis achieving an estimated 30% reduction in ICOE relative to the NETL Case 12 (v2) baseline of $66.3/MWh ICOE. Likewise, Case-2B achieved capture costs of $53.0/tCO2 and 65.7/tCO 2 avoided, which equates to 20.2% and 31.4% savings relative to the Case 12 baseline ($66.4/tCO 2 and $95.9/tCO 2 avoided). While Case 2A and 2B have similar results, Case 2A requires further development. Focus on Case 2B is recommended for this project because its cost performance is closest to the DOE goals, and has it has the best potential to achieve a successful demonstration at the next scale.

Reardon, John↗

DOE OSTI2018

Estimating the Value of Improved Distributed Photovoltaic Adoption Forecasts for Utility Resource Planning

Misforecasting the adoption of customer-owned distributed photovoltaics (DPV) can have operational and financial implications for utilities - forecasting capabilities can be improved, but generally at a cost. This paper informs this decision-space by quantifying the costs of misforecasting across a wide range of DPV growth rates and misforecast severities. Using a simplified probabilistic method presented within, an analyst can make a first-order estimate of the financial benefit of improving a utility's forecasting capabilities, and thus be better informed about whether to make such an investment. For example, we show that a utility with 10 TWh per year of retail electric sales who initially estimates that the increase in DPV's contribution to total generation could range from 2 to 7.5 percent over the next 15 years could expect total present-value savings of approximately 4 million dollars if they could keep the severity of successive five-year misforecasts within plus or minus 25 percent. We also have more general discussions about how misforecasting DPV impacts the buildout and operation of the bulk power system - for example, we observed that misforecasting DPV most strongly influenced the amount of utility-scale PV that gets built, due to the similarity in the energy and capacity services offered by the two solar technologies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1976

Behavior of queues at signalized intersections in heavy traffic

This paper derives the asymptotic behavior of traffic queues at signalized intersections when the excess of departure capacity over arrivals approaches zero from above. The most interesting result is that the distribution of queue length approaches a negative exponential, with fewer restrictive assumptions than hitherto known. The main improvement results from more precise use of a combinatorial lemma of Spitzer, giving the maximum of the partial sums of a sequence of independent identically distributed random variables, plus some specific constructive probability calculations, many of them involving the Fourier transform. New results are presented on the probability that the queue be below a fixed bound and/or on the probability that the queue be empty. Applications to on-line estimators for real-time traffic control are suggested.

Posner, E. C.↗

DOE OSTI2013

Nitrite in feed: From Animal health to human health

Nitrite is widely consumed from the diet by animals and humans. However the largest contribution to exposure results from the in vivo conversion of exogenously derived nitrate to nitrite. Because of its potential to cause to methaemoglobin (MetHb) formation at excessive levels of intake, nitrite is regulated in feed and water as an undesirable substance. Forages and contaminated water have been shown to contain high levels of nitrate and represent the largest contributor to nitrite exposure for food-producing animals. Interspecies differences in sensitivity to nitrite intoxication principally result from physiological and anatomical differences in nitrite handling. In the case of livestock both pigs and cattle are relatively susceptible. With pigs this is due to a combination of low levels of bacterial nitrite reductase and hence potential to reduce nitrite to ammonia as well as reduced capacity to detoxify MetHb back to haemoglobin (Hb) due to intrinsically low levels of MetHb reductase. In cattle the sensitivity is due to the potential for high dietary intake and high levels of rumen conversion of nitrate to nitrite, and an adaptable gut flora which at normal loadings shunts nitrite to ammonia for biosynthesis. However when this escape mechanism gets overloaded, nitrite builds up and can enter the blood stream resulting in methemoglobinemia. Looking at livestock case histories reported in the literature no-observed-effect levels of 3.3 mg/kg body weight (b.w.) per day for nitrite in pigs and cattle were estimated and related to the total daily nitrite intake that would result from complete feed at the EU maximum permissible level. This resulted in margins of safety of 9-fold and 5-fold for pigs and cattle, respectively. Recognising that the bulkiness of animal feed limits their consumption, these margins in conjunction with good agricultural practise were considered satisfactory for the protection of livestock health. A human health risk assessment was also carried out taking into account all direct and indirect sources of nitrite from the human diet, including carry-over of nitrite in animal-based products such as milk, eggs and meat products. Human exposure was then compared with the acceptable daily intake (ADI) for nitrite of 0-0.07 mg/kg b.w. per day. Overall, the low levels of nitrite in fresh animal products represented only 2.9% of the total daily dietary exposure and thus were not considered to raise concerns for human health. It is concluded that the potential health risk to animals from the consumption of feed or to man from eating fresh animal products containing nitrite, is very low.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2013

Current status and performance assessment for the Techa cascade of reservoirs - liquid radioactive waste storage facility

The Techa cascade of water reservoirs is the world's largest open storage facility for liquid low-level radioactive waste. Its capacity is about 360 mln. m{sup 3}, it occupies an area of more than 65 km{sup 2}, the total activity accumulated in the water and sediments is about 6.10{sup 15} Bq. The major challenge facing the Techa cascade is virtually uncontrollable water level changes. The water level rise can cause significant pollution of the environment. From the late 1990's onwards, the issue of the Techa cascade safety assurance is considered to be one of the major challenges pertaining to nuclear legacy for 'Mayak' and Russia as a whole. Unlike other industrial water reservoirs the Techa cascade liquidation is estimated as highly unrealistic. The main objectives of the paper are: - brief results summary of the practical works on safety improvement at the Techa cascade carried out over the past decade; - introduction the works on the Techa cascade performance assessment; - determination of the existing risks and strategic areas for solving the problem. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2015

WE-AB-303-09: Rapid Projection Computations for On-Board Digital Tomosynthesis in Radiation Therapy

Purpose: To facilitate fast and accurate iterative volumetric image reconstruction from limited-angle on-board projections. Methods: Intrafraction motion hinders the clinical applicability of modern radiotherapy techniques, such as lung stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT). The LIVE system may impact clinical practice by recovering volumetric information via Digital Tomosynthesis (DTS), thus entailing low time and radiation dose for image acquisition during treatment. The DTS is estimated as a deformation of prior CT via iterative registration with on-board images; this shifts the challenge to the computational domain, owing largely to repeated projection computations across iterations. We address this issue by composing efficient digital projection operators from their constituent parts. This allows us to separate the static (projection geometry) and dynamic (volume/image data) parts of projection operations by means of pre-computations, enabling fast on-board processing, while also relaxing constraints on underlying numerical models (e.g. regridding interpolation kernels). Further decoupling the projectors into simpler ones ensures the incurred memory overhead remains low, within the capacity of a single GPU. These operators depend only on the treatment plan and may be reused across iterations and patients. The dynamic processing load is kept to a minimum and maps well to the GPU computational model. Results: We have integrated efficient, pre-computable modules for volumetric ray-casting and FDK-based back-projection with the LIVE processing pipeline. Our results show a 60x acceleration of the DTS computations, compared to the previous version, using a single GPU; presently, reconstruction is attained within a couple of minutes. The present implementation allows for significant flexibility in terms of the numerical and operational projection model; we are investigating the benefit of further optimizations and accurate digital projection sub-kernels. Conclusion: Composable projection operators constitute a versatile research tool which can greatly accelerate iterative registration algorithms and may be conducive to the clinical applicability of LIVE. National Institutes of Health Grant No. R01-CA184173; GPU donation by NVIDIA Corporation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Functionalized Porous Organic Polymers as Uranium Nano-Traps for Efficient Recovery of Uranium from Seawater

The long-term use of nuclear power for energy applications relies on the secure and economical supply of nuclear fuel. Among various natural sources of uranium for use in nuclear reactors, seawater is highly appealing given that the oceans contain about 4.5 billion tons of dissolved uranium, almost 1000 times that estimated for mineral reserves. Nonetheless, the concentration of uranium in seawater is extremely low (3-3.3 mg L -1 or 3-3.3 ppb); this, coupled with the presence of a relatively high concentration of other metal ions, makes uranium recovery from seawater a challenge that requires the development of efficient and effective separation processes. Various adsorbent technologies based upon synthetic organic polymers, biopolymers, inorganic materials, mesoporous silica materials, porous carbon-based adsorbents, and ionic liquids have been widely developed for the extraction of uranium from seawater. However, these benchmark sorbent materials suffer from a number of drawbacks such as low adsorption capacity (typically 0.1~3.2 mg-U g -1 adsorbent), poor selectivity, and slow kinetics. Given the extreme complexity and vast volume of seawater, as well as the very low concentration of uranium present, to attain this ambitious task demands the design of adsorbents with high affinity and fast kinetics. The main objective of this project is to develop functional porous organic polymers (POPs) as a new type of adsorbent for mining uranium from seawater. This class of porous materials has quickly moved to the forefront of materials research due to their high internal surface areas, exceptional water/chemical stability, facile chemical tunability, and extraordinary capability to selectively adsorb large quantities of guest species The potential to deploy POPs in uranium extraction is related to the ease with which their internal surfaces can be decorated with high densities of strong binding sites. Beyond introducing postsynthetic modification, the specific functionalities also can be used as building units to be incorporated into porous frameworks. Our approach to fulfill this task involves the custom-design of POP-based uranium “nano-traps” via a “crystal engineering” guided design followed by stepwise post-synthetic modification. Furthermore, to increase the density of chelating groups and to enhance their affinity towards uranyl ions, judiciously designed chelating systems were constructed into porous organic polymers. Moreover, to improve the accessibility of the chelating groups and thereby the utilization efficiency, we assembled the chelating groups into highly crystalline materials where they are aligned in periodic arrays on the open channels.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

NASA NTRS1993

Potential markets for advanced satellite communications

This report identifies trends in the volume and type of traffic offered to the U.S. domestic communications infrastructure and extrapolates these trends through the year 2011. To describe how telecommunications service providers are adapting to the identified trends, this report assesses the status, plans, and capacity of the domestic communications infrastructure. Cable, satellite, and radio components of the infrastructure are examined separately. The report also assesses the following major applications making use of the infrastructure: (1) Broadband services, including Broadband Integrated Services Digital Network (BISDN), Switched Multimegabit Data Service (SMDS), and frame relay; (2) mobile services, including voice, location, and paging; (3) Very Small Aperture Terminals (VSAT), including mesh VSAT; and (4) Direct Broadcast Satellite (DBS) for audio and video. The report associates satellite implementation of specific applications with market segments appropriate to their features and capabilities. The volume and dollar value of these market segments are estimated. For the satellite applications able to address the needs of significant market segments, the report also examines the potential of each satellite-based application to capture business from alternative technologies.

Adamson, Steven↗

DOE OSTI2021

Quasi-one-dimensional uniform spin- 1 2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet KNaCuP 2 O 7 probed by P 31 and Na 23 NMR

Here we present the structural and magnetic properties of KNaCuP 2 O 7 investigated via x-ray diffraction, magnetization, specific heat, and P 31 and Na 23 NMR measurements and complementary electronic structure calculations. The temperature-dependent magnetic susceptibility and P 31 NMR shift could be modeled very well by the uniform spin- 1 2 Heisenberg antiferromagnetic chain model with a nearest-neighbor interaction J / k B ≃ 58.7 K . The corresponding mapping using first-principles electronic structure calculations leads to J DFT / k B ≃ 59 K with negligibly small interchain couplings, further confirming that the system is indeed a one-dimensional uniform spin- 1 2 Heisenberg antiferromagnet. The diverging trend of NMR spin-lattice relaxation rates ( 1 / T 1 31 and 1 / T 1 23 ) implies the onset of a magnetic long-range ordering at around T N ≃ 1 K . From the value of T N , the average interchain coupling is estimated to be J ' / k B ≃ 0.28 K . Moreover, the NMR spin-lattice relaxation rates show the dominant contributions from uniform ( q = 0 ) and staggered ( q = ± π / a ) spin fluctuations in the high- and low-temperature regimes, respectively, mimicking one-dimensionality of the spin lattice. We have also demonstrated that 1 / T 1 31 in high temperatures varies linearly with 1 / H , reflecting the effect of spin diffusion on the dynamic susceptibility. The temperature-dependent unit cell volume could be described well using the Debye approximation with a Debye temperature of Θ D ≃ 294 K , consistent with the heat capacity data.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Meta-Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Cost Estimations

Supporting Data can be downloaded at: https://gain.inl.gov/content/uploads/4/2024/06/INL-RPT-24-77048-R1.xlsx Nuclear energy is a critical cornerstone of the current United States clean energy supply and may play a larger role in the future in support of a transition to a net-zero economy. The current fleet of nuclear reactors predominantly consists of large light-water reactors (LWRs), while many of the reactor designs under consideration are smaller and/or different technologies. Because these new designs have not yet been built, there is a high degree of uncertainty associated with their cost. This complicates energy-planning efforts because cost projections are not always standardized, consistent, and centralized in an easily accessible location. To help support energy planning in the US, this report provides advanced nuclear cost ranges using a transparent methodology along with other relevant information that can be used to help support decision making and energy planning. The purpose of this work was to conduct a methodical process for cost evaluation using only public information that was vetted with the end-goal to provide reference cost projections for nuclear energy. To provide a solid basis for these values, the approach and assumptions are explicitly laid out throughout the report allowing any user of the data to challenge or reconsider them. Because future US nuclear-reactor costs are still unknown due to little recent observed data, the report opted to compile a comprehensive list of bottom-up estimates and evaluate averages/trends within the data to identify reference ranges. This was deemed preferable to opining on the robustness or validity of one cost estimation versus another. To that end, the work evaluated thousands of lines of cost subaccounts from several bottom-up cost estimates. A wide variety of different reactor types captured in the data are of various sizes and technologies. Some of these reactors will be representative of advanced reactors under development while others will not. Thus, the results here are dependent on the data that are available and the accuracy of the estimates that are used. Each bottom-up estimate was reviewed to determine whether it was complete. Incomplete data sets were corrected to ensure an adequate basis of cross-comparison. The report is not without limitations and should be interpreted as an initial step to develop cost ranges for nuclear technology. Ultimately, future work can build upon the methodology with refined cost estimates to reduce uncertainty. US-based overnight capital cost (OCC) estimates were compiled from extensive data sets into ranges for both large and small reactor sizes for 2030. To project the cost declines over time, learning rates were sampled from literature sources. No SMRs were previously built; hence, learning rates based on bottom-up approaches (e.g., by quantifying the impact stemming from fabrication of different components, modular work, site construction, commissioning) were prioritized. For larger reactors, actual learning rates from deployments were used to project future costs (adjusted to account for standardization or lack thereof between designs). Other costs included are fixed and variable operations and maintenance costs. The final variables were capacity factors and ramp rates to support energy planning.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Crossing the Barriers: An Analysis of Permitting Barriers to Geothermal Development and Potential Improvement Scenarios

Developers have identified many non-technical barriers to geothermal power development, including permitting. Activities required for permitting, such as the associated environmental reviews, can take a considerable amount of time and delay project development. This paper discusses the impacts to geothermal development timelines due to the permitting challenges, including the regulatory framework, environmental review process, and ancillary permits. We identified barriers that have the potential to prevent geothermal development or delay timelines and defined improvement scenarios that could assist in expediting geothermal development and permitting timelines and lead to the deployment of additional geothermal resources by 2030 and 2050: (1) the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices as well as (2) an expansion of existing categorical exclusions applicable to geothermal development on Bureau of Land Management public lands to include the oil and gas categorical exclusions passed as part of the Energy Policy Act of 2005. We utilized the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) and the Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) to forecast baseline geothermal deployment based on previous analysis of geothermal project development and permitting timelines. The model results forecast that reductions in geothermal project timelines can have a significant impact on geothermal deployment. For example, using the ReEDS model, we estimated that reducing timelines by two years, perhaps due to the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices, could result in deployment of an additional 204 MW by 2030 and 768 MW by 2050 - a 13% improvement when compared to the business as usual scenario. The model results forecast that a timeline improvement of four years - for example with an expansion of existing categorical exclusions coupled with the creation of a centralized federal geothermal permitting office and utilization of state permit coordination offices - could result in deployment of an additional 2,529 MW of geothermal capacity by 2030 and 6,917 MW of geothermal capacity by 2050 - an improvement of 116% when compared to the business as usual scenario. These results suggest that reducing development timelines could be a large driver in the deployment of geothermal resources.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Powering Data Centers with Clean Energy: A Techno-Economic Case Study of Nuclear and Renewable Energy Dependability

Rising data demands from artificial intelligence (AI) and large language models (LLMs) generating images, videos, and text have prompted increased need for larger and more robust data centers in the United States. Major companies interested in these larger data centers face the choice of linking them to existing regional grids, building stand-alone power supplies onsite, or a combination of both. The request, review, and approval process for new transmission lines to grids in the United States, however, has grown in recent years to times spans rivaling those of new construction for nuclear power plants. Building an islanded power supply for each data center is therefore becoming a prominent option. In this case study, several technologies are modeled in techno-economic simulations for long-term system costs subject to fixed electricity demand from a singular data center. A 250 MWe data center is assumed with additional 50 MWe for resiliency. Techno-economic simulations are conducted using the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) software, which is a part of the Framework for Optimization of Resources and Economics (FORCE) tool suite. Technologies considered include solar, wind, lithium-ion batteries, and several types of nuclear reactors: large-scale reactors, small modular reactors, and microreactors. A low- and high-cost estimate for each technology is assumed to develop a range of expected economic performance. Low-cost estimates included several clean energy production tax credits. Different combinations of renewable energy generators with nuclear reactors are considered, ranging from a fully renewable-powered data center to a fully nuclear-powered data center. Historic time series of wind and solar availability from the Texas grid are used to train a reduced order model; this model then generates unique time series with similar characteristics of the training dataset. Multiple scenarios of weather and subsequent operations are simulated for each renewable-nuclear combination to determine total costs throughout the project lifetime. Fully renewable-powered configurations required large amounts of installed capacity (GW scale) in the simulations to meet the fixed demand of the data center. This is due to some scenarios in the historical dataset which captured low-wind and low-solar days, requiring over-building of these technologies as well as batteries to compensate for the low amounts of electricity generation. Fully nuclear-powered configurations outperformed the fully renewable and mixed renewable-nuclear configurations in terms of cost, with ranges between $1B and $10B in 2023 USDs compared to $40B+ for fully renewable configurations. Of the nuclear technologies, small modular reactors performed better economically than large-scale nuclear models due to lower projected capital costs, and both performed better than the microreactor models. These results demonstrate the applicability of firm, dispatchable electricity resources from baseload generators like nuclear power plants for operating facilities that run at constant power without daily variability.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗