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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1986

A new algorithm for microwave delay estimation from water vapor radiometer data

A new algorithm has been developed for the estimation of tropospheric microwave path delays from water vapor radiometer (WVR) data, which does not require site and weather dependent empirical parameters to produce high accuracy. Instead of taking the conventional linear approach, the new algorithm first uses the observables with an emission model to determine an approximate form of the vertical water vapor distribution which is then explicitly integrated to estimate wet path delays, in a second step. The intrinsic accuracy of this algorithm has been examined for two channel WVR data using path delays and stimulated observables computed from archived radiosonde data. It is found that annual RMS errors for a wide range of sites are in the range from 1.3 mm to 2.3 mm, in the absence of clouds. This is comparable to the best overall accuracy obtainable from conventional linear algorithms, which must be tailored to site and weather conditions using large radiosonde data bases. The new algorithm's accuracy and flexibility are indications that it may be a good candidate for almost all WVR data interpretation.

Robinson, S. E.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Data from: Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta-analysis

Despite the wide application of meta-analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta-analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta-analyses. We reviewed published meta-analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies (ni) and the number of studies or records (k) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta-analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that ni and k were highly variable, distributions were right-skewed, and were generally small (median ni =5, median k=44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval based on the t-distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung-Knapp-Sidik-Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z-distribution confidence intervals had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta-analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random-effects meta-analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods were similar for the same combinations of factors (k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approaches had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low (k<15). Our literature review suggests that many meta-analyses that used z-distribution or bootstrapping confidence intervals may have over-estimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta-analyses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1986

A new technique for predicting geosynchronous satellite collision probability

A new technique has been developed to predict the probability of an expired geosynchronous satellite colliding with an active satellite. This new technique employs deterministic methods for modeling the motion of satellites and applies statistical techniques to estimate the collision probability. The collision probability is used to estimate the expected time between collisions based on realistic distributions of expired and active satellites. The primary advantage of this new technique is that realistic distributions can be used in the prediction process instead of uniform distributions as has been used in previous techniques. The expected time between collisions based on a current NORAD database is estimated to be in the hundreds of years.

Mccormick, B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Machine Learning-Based Method to Estimate Transformer Primary-Side Voltages with Limited Customer-Side AMI Measurements

Distribution control applications such as volt/var optimization, network reconfiguration, and distribution automation require accurate knowledge of the distribution system state. The lack of sufficient sensors on the primary side of distribution networks often limits the accuracy of the control decisions by these applications. The deployment of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) provides utilities an opportunity to translate the AMI data on the secondary onto the primary so that it can be used as pseudo-measurements to augment the limited existing measurements on the primary. This paper develops an approach for estimating service transformer primary-side voltages by using limited secondary-side AMI measurements. The estimated primary-side voltages can be used by utilities as pseudo-measurements for distribution control applications. The detailed secondary model topology, which is an essential input data for many existing algorithms, is not required for the proposed method. The performance of the proposed method is validated by using AMI measurements from the field and an actual distribution feeder model of San Diego Gas & Electric Company.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantifying concordance of correlated cosmological data sets

We develop estimators of agreement and disagreement between correlated cosmological data sets. These account for data correlations when computing the significance of both tensions and excess confirmation while remaining statistically optimal. We discuss and thoroughly characterize different approaches commenting on the ones that have the best behavior in practical applications. We complement the calculation of their statistical distribution within the Gaussian model with one estimator that takes non-Gaussianities fully into account. To illustrate the use of our techniques, we apply these estimators to supernovae measurements of the distance-redshift relation, absolutely calibrated by the local distance ladder. The suite of best estimators that we discuss finds results that are in excellent agreement between estimators and find no indications of significant internal inconsistencies in this data set above the 1% probability threshold. Furthermore, this shows the robustness of local determinations of the Hubble constant to features in the distance-redshift relation.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2005

Use of Dual-wavelength Radar for Snow Parameter Estimates

Use of dual-wavelength radar, with properly chosen wavelengths, will significantly lessen the ambiguities in the retrieval of microphysical properties of hydrometeors. In this paper, a dual-wavelength algorithm is described to estimate the characteristic parameters of the snow size distributions. An analysis of the computational results, made at X and Ka bands (T-39 airborne radar) and at S and X bands (CP-2 ground-based radar), indicates that valid estimates of the median volume diameter of snow particles, D(sub 0), should be possible if one of the two wavelengths of the radar operates in the non-Rayleigh scattering region. However, the accuracy may be affected to some extent if the shape factors of the Gamma function used for describing the particle distribution are chosen far from the true values or if cloud water attenuation is significant. To examine the validity and accuracy of the dual-wavelength radar algorithms, the algorithms are applied to the data taken from the Convective and Precipitation-Electrification Experiment (CaPE) in 1991, in which the dual-wavelength airborne radar was coordinated with in situ aircraft particle observations and ground-based radar measurements. Having carefully co-registered the data obtained from the different platforms, the airborne radar-derived size distributions are then compared with the in-situ measurements and ground-based radar. Good agreement is found for these comparisons despite the uncertainties resulting from mismatches of the sample volumes among the different sensors as well as spatial and temporal offsets.

Liao, Liang↗
NASA NTRS1994

The Area Coverage of Geophysical Fields as a Function of Sensor Field-of View

In many remote sensing studies of geophysical fields such as clouds, land cover, or sea ice characteristics, the fractional area coverage of the field in an image is estimated as the proportion of pixels that have the characteristic of interest (i.e., are part of the field) as determined by some thresholding operation. The effect of sensor field-of-view on this estimate is examined by modeling the unknown distribution of subpixel area fraction with the beta distribution, whose two parameters depend upon the true fractional area coverage, the pixel size, and the spatial structure of the geophysical field. Since it is often not possible to relate digital number, reflectance, or temperature to subpixel area fraction, the statistical models described are used to determine the effect of pixel size and thresholding operations on the estimate of area fraction for hypothetical geophysical fields. Examples are given for simulated cumuliform clouds and linear openings in sea ice, whose spatial structures are described by an exponential autocovariance function. It is shown that the rate and direction of change in total area fraction with changing pixel size depends on the true area fraction, the spatial structure, and the thresholding operation used.

Key, Jeffrey R.↗
DOE OSTI2019

A Bayesian Approach to Real-Time Dynamic Parameter Estimation Using Phasor Measurement Unit Measurement

Here, we develop a polynomial-chaos-expansion (PCE)-based approach for decentralized dynamic parameter estimation through Bayesian inference. Using this approach, the non-Gaussian distribution of the inverted parameters is obtained. More specifically, we first represent the decentralized generator model with the PCE-based surrogate. This surrogate allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming dynamic solver at parameter values through Metropolis-Hastings (M-H)-based Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). Then, we propose a two-stage hybrid Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to recover a posteriori distribution of the decentralized generator model parameters. In the first stage, we use the gradient-enhanced Langevin MCMC algorithm to characterize an intermediate posterior parameter distribution. This algorithm is computationally scalable to the high-dimensional parameter space. Based on the intermediate posterior distribution, during the second stage, we use the adaptive MCMC algorithm to fine-tune the strong correlations between the parameters. Finally, the fully recovered a posterior distribution is obtained in the end. The simulation results show that the proposed PCE-based hybrid MCMC algorithm can accurately and efficiently estimate the high-dimensional generator dynamic model parameters with full probabilistic distribution provided.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1971

Convective motion and the structure of the Jupiter magnetosphere

The convective motion and its relation to the electric field in the magnetosphere of Jupiter are investigated. It is shown that the electric field is induced in the Jovian ionosphere due to the corotating action of the ionospheric gases and further is communicated into the magnetosphere along the magnetic lines of force which connect between the ionosphere and the magnetosphere. This electric field drives the plasma to corotate with the planet in the magnetosphere. The distribution of the electric field and its effect on the plasma motion is estimated in the magnetosphere. The shape of the magnetosphere is then estimated considering the equilibrium condition. Discussion is given on the equilibrium plasma distribution in the magnetosphere and on the condition for the excitation of wave-particle interaction at the Io orbit.

Sakurai, K.↗
NASA NTRS1988

The profile algorithm for microwave delay estimation from water vapor radiometer data

A new algorithm has been developed for the estimation of tropospheric microwave path delays from water vapor radiometer (WVR) data, which does not require site and weather dependent empirical parameters to produce accuracy better than 0.3 cm of delay. Instead of taking the conventional linear approach, the new algorithm first uses the observables with an emission model to determine an approximate form of the vertical water vapor distribution, which is then explicitly integrated to estimate wet path delays in a second step. The intrinsic accuracy of this algorithm, excluding uncertainties caused by the radiometers and the emission model, has been examined for two channel WVR data using path delays and corresponding simulated observables computed from archived radiosonde data. It is found that annual rms errors for a wide range of sites average 0.18 cm in the absence of clouds, 0.22 cm in cloudy weather, and 0.19 cm overall. In clear weather, the new algorithm's accuracy is comparable to the best that can be obtained from conventional linear algorithms, while in cloudy weather it offers a 35 percent improvement.

Robinson, Steven E.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Deep Learning At Depth: Estimating subsurface parameters from geophysical monitoring data

Geophysical imaging techniques are a non-invasive way to image the subsurface and understand both subsurface solid (rock/soil) and fluid property distributions and their evolution in time. Inversions of the geophysical data, such as Electrical Resistance Tomography (ERT) data, are solved to estimate the subsurface property distributions, such as conductivity, and many inversion techniques smooth out sharp gradients in rock or fluid property distributions. Sharp gradients in subsurface properties tend to be present in situations with complex subsurface structures, which are common in many subsurface applications. We have successfully demonstrated that it is possible to inform, or constrain, inversions with neural networks trained on synthetic data with complex subsurface structures. Initial results suggest this process may be optimizable to yield property distributions that better represent the true property distributions than the same inversion process without the neural network constraint. Future work would optimize the neural network performance for this application and then apply the synthetic-data trained neural network to real data to understand the utility and performance of this technique for real data sets.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Demonstration of machine-learning-enhanced Bayesian quantum state estimation

Machine learning (ML) has found broad applicability in quantum information science in topics as diverse as experimental design, state classification, and even studies on quantum foundations. Here, we experimentally realize an approach for defining custom prior distributions that are automatically tuned using ML for Bayesian quantum state estimation methods that generally better conform to the physical properties of the underlying system than standard fixed prior distributions. Previously, researchers have looked to Bayesian quantum state tomography for advantages like uncertainty quantification, the return of reliable estimates under any measurement condition, and minimal mean-squared error. However, practical challenges related to long computation times and conceptual issues concerning how to incorporate prior knowledge most suitably can overshadow these benefits. Using both simulated and experimental measurement results, we demonstrate that ML-defined prior distributions reduce net convergence times and provide a natural way to incorporate both implicit and explicit information directly into the prior distribution. These results constitute a promising path toward practical implementations of Bayesian quantum state tomography.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2018

Shielding of the azimuthal magnetic field by the anode plasma in a relativistic self-magnetic-pinch diode

In relativistic electron beam diodes, the self-generated magnetic field causes electron-beam focusing at the center of the anode. Generally, plasma is formed all over the anode surface during and after the process of the beam focusing. In this work, we use visible-light Zeeman-effect spectroscopy for the determination of the magnetic field in the anode plasma in the Sandia 10 MV, 200 kA (RITS-6) electron beam diode. The magnetic field is determined from the Zeeman-dominated shapes of the Al III 4 s –4 p and C IV 3 s –3 p doublet emissions from various radial positions. Near the anode surface, due to the high plasma density, the spectral line-shapes are Stark-dominated, and only an upper limit of the magnetic field can be determined. The line-shape analysis also yields the plasma density. The data yield quantitatively the magnetic-field shielding in the plasma. In conclusion, the magnetic-field distribution in the plasma is compared to the field-diffusion prediction and found to be consistent with the Spitzer resistivity, estimated using the electron temperature and charge-state distribution determined from line intensity ratios.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Logarithmic Resilience Risk Metrics That Address the Huge Variations in Blackout Cost

Resilience risk metrics must address the customer cost of the largest blackouts of greatest impact. However, there are huge variations in blackout cost in observed distribution utility data that make it impractical to properly estimate the mean large blackout cost and the corresponding risk. These problems are caused by the heavy tail observed in the distribution of customer costs. To solve these problems, we propose resilience metrics that describe large blackout risk using the mean of the logarithm of the cost of large-cost blackouts, the slope index of the heavy tail, and the frequency of large-cost blackouts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Research Trends and Applications of PMUs

This work is a survey of current trends in applications of PMUs. PMUs have the potential to solve major problems in the areas of power system estimation, protection, and stability. A variety of methods are being used for these purposes, including statistical techniques, mathematical transformations, probability, and AI. The results produced by the techniques reviewed in this work are promising, but there is work to be performed in the context of implementation and standardization. As the smart grid initiative continues to advance, the number of intelligent devices monitoring the power grid continues to increase. PMUs are at the center of this initiative, and as a result, each year more PMUs are deployed across the grid. Since their introduction, myriad solutions based on PMU-technology have been suggested. The high sampling rates and synchronized measurements provided by PMUs are expected to drive significant advancements across multiple fields, such as the protection, estimation, and control of the power grid. This work offers a review of contemporary research trends and applications of PMU technology. Most solutions presented in this work were published in the last five years, and techniques showing potential for significant impact are highlighted in greater detail. Being a relatively new technology, there are several issues that must be addressed before PMU-based solutions can be successfully implemented. This survey found that key areas where improvements are needed include the establishment of PMU-observability, data processing algorithms, the handling of heterogeneous sampling rates, and the minimization of the investment in infrastructure for PMU communication. Solutions based on Bayesian estimation, as well as those having a distributed architectures, show great promise. The material presented in this document is tailored to both new researchers entering this field and experienced researchers wishing to become acquainted with emerging trends.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1988

Integrated Analysis Of Static Distributed Systems

Integrated approach encompasses modeling, identification of parameters, estimation of states, and control. Applies to models specified in part by possibly interconnected elliptic partial differential equations for deflections of structures under static loads. Appropriate for systems in which time-dependent effects negligibleand where control forces applied without exciting significiant dynamic behavior.

Rodriguez, Guillermo↗
NASA NTRS1998

Development of a Coupled Hydrological/Sediment Yield Model for a Watershed at Regional Level

Development of a hydrologic model for the study of environmental conservation requires a comprehensive understanding of individual-storm affecting hydrologic and sedimentologic processes. The hydrologic models that we are currently coupling are the Simulator for Hydrology and Energy Exchange at the Land Surface (SHEELS) and the Distributed Runoff Model (DRUM). SHEELS runs continuously to estimate surface energy fluxes and sub-surface soil water fluxes, while DRUM operates during and following precipitation events to predict surface runoff and peak flow through channel routing. The lateral re-distribution of surface water determined by DRUM is passed to SHEELS, which then adjusts soil water contents throughout the profile. The model SHEELS is well documented in Smith et al. (1993) and Laymen and Crosson (1995). The model DRUM is well documented in Vieux et al. (1990) and Vieux and Gauer (1994). The coupled hydrologic model, SHEELS/DRUM, does not simulate sedimentologic processes. The simulation of the sedimentologic process is important for environmental conservation planning and management. Therefore, we attempted to develop a conceptual frame work for coupling a sediment yield model with SHEELS/DRUM to estimate individual-storm sediment yield from a watershed at a regional level. The sediment yield model that will be used for this study is the Universal Soil Loss Equation (USLE) with some modifications to enable the model to predict individual-storm sediment yield. The predicted sediment yield does not include wind erosion and erosion caused by irrigation and snow melt. Units used for this study are those given by Foster et al. (1981) for SI units.

Rajbhandaril, Narayan↗