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At least 1,783 records · Page 99

Linking species traits and demography to explain complex temperature responses across levels of organization

Significance Microbes regulate nutrient flux and carbon storage within ecosystems, making them essential to the global carbon cycle and ecosystem responses to climate change. Understanding how climate change will alter microbial communities and how this will feed back to influence the pace of climate change requires linking processes across levels of organization, from individual organisms to whole ecosystems. We show that the physical characteristics (traits) of protist species influence how their populations will respond to changes in temperature. These species-level temperature responses also alter the composition, dynamics, and functioning of whole microbial communities. Using traits to understand how complex, multilevel microbial processes change with temperature can help us anticipate possible consequences of rapid global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Pervasive alterations to snow-dominated ecosystem functions under climate change

Climate change projections consistently demonstrate that warming temperatures and dwindling seasonal snowpack will elicit cascading effects on ecosystem function and water resource availability. Despite this consensus, little is known about potential changes in the variability of ecohydrological conditions, which is also required to inform climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. Considering potential changes in ecohydrological variability is critical to evaluating the emergence of trends, assessing the likelihood of extreme events such as floods and droughts, and identifying when tipping points may be reached that fundamentally alter ecohydrological function. Using a single-model Large Ensemble with sophisticated terrestrial ecosystem representation, we characterize projected changes in the mean state and variability of ecohydrological processes in historically snow-dominated regions of the Northern Hemisphere. Widespread snowpack reductions, earlier snowmelt timing, longer growing seasons, drier soils, and increased fire risk are projected for this century under a high-emissions scenario. In addition to these changes in the mean state, increased variability in winter snowmelt will increase growing-season water deficits and increase the stochasticity of runoff. Thus, with warming, declining snowpack loses its dependable buffering capacity so that runoff quantity and timing more closely reflect the episodic characteristics of precipitation. This results in a declining predictability of annual runoff from maximum snow water equivalent, which has critical implications for ecosystem stress and water resource management. So our results suggest that there is a strong likelihood of pervasive alterations to ecohydrological function that may be expected with climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bayesian characterization of uncertainties surrounding fluvial flood hazard estimates

Fluvial floods drive severe risk to riverine communities. There is strong evidence of increasing flood hazards in many regions around the world. The choice of methods and assumptions used in flood hazard estimates can impact the design of risk management strategies. In this study, we characterize the expected flood hazards conditioned on the uncertain model structures, model parameters, and prior distributions of the parameters. We construct a Bayesian framework for river stage return level estimation using a nonstationary statistical model that relies exclusively on the Indian Ocean Dipole Index. We show that ignoring uncertainties can lead to biased estimation of expected flood hazards. We find that the considered model parametric uncertainty is more influential than model structures and model priors. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating uncertainty in extreme flood stage estimates, and are of practical use for informing water infrastructure designs in a changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Historical evaluation and future projections of compound heatwave and drought extremes over the conterminous United States in CMIP6 *

Abstract Independently, both droughts and heatwaves can induce severe impacts on human and natural systems. However, when these two climate extremes occur concurrently in a given region, their compound impacts are often more pronounced. With the improvement in both the spatiotemporal resolution and representation of complex climate processes in the global climate models (GCMs), they are increasingly used to study future changes in these extremes and associated regional impacts. However, GCM selection for such impact assessments is generally based on historical performance and/or future mean changes, without considering individual or compound extremes. In contrast, this study evaluates historical performance and projected changes in heatwaves, droughts, and compound heatwave-droughts using an ensemble of GCMs from the latest Phase 6 of Coupled Models Intercomparison Project at a regional scale across the conterminous United States. Additionally, we explore the inter-model differences in the projected changes that are associated with various characteristics of extremes and the choice of drought indices. Our analysis reveals considerable variation among the GCMs, as well as substantial differences in the projected changes based on the choice of drought indices and region of interest. For example, the projected increases in both the frequency and intensity of drought and associated compound extreme days, based on the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index far exceed those derived from the standard precipitation index. Further, the largest changes in the frequency of compound extremes are projected over the Southwest, South Central, and parts of the Southeast while the smallest changes are projected over the Northeast. Overall, this study provides important insights for the interpretation and selection of GCMs for future assessment studies that are crucial for the development of regional adaptation strategies in the face of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Change in terrestrial ecosystem water‐use efficiency over the last three decades

Abstract Defined as the ratio between gross primary productivity ( GPP ) and evapotranspiration ( ET ), ecosystem‐scale water‐use efficiency ( EWUE ) is an indicator of the adjustment of vegetation photosynthesis to water loss. The processes controlling EWUE are complex and reflect both a slow evolution of plants and plant communities as well as fast adjustments of ecosystem functioning to changes of limiting resources. In this study, we investigated EWUE trends from 1982 to 2008 using data‐driven models derived from satellite observations and process‐oriented carbon cycle models. Our findings suggest positive EWUE trends of 0.0056, 0.0007 and 0.0001 g C m −2 mm −1 yr −1 under the single effect of rising CO 2 (‘ CO 2 ’), climate change (‘ CLIM ’) and nitrogen deposition (‘ NDEP ’), respectively. Global patterns of EWUE trends under different scenarios suggest that (i) EWUE ‐ CO 2 shows global increases, (ii) EWUE ‐ CLIM increases in mainly high latitudes and decreases at middle and low latitudes, (iii) EWUE ‐ NDEP displays slight increasing trends except in west Siberia, eastern Europe, parts of North America and central Amazonia. The data‐driven MTE model, however, shows a slight decline of EWUE during the same period (−0.0005 g C m −2 mm −1 yr −1 ), which differs from process‐model (0.0064 g C m −2 mm −1 yr −1 ) simulations with all drivers taken into account. We attribute this discrepancy to the fact that the nonmodeled physiological effects of elevated CO 2 reducing stomatal conductance and transpiration ( TR ) in the MTE model. Partial correlation analysis between EWUE and climate drivers shows similar responses to climatic variables with the data‐driven model and the process‐oriented models across different ecosystems. Change in water‐use efficiency defined from transpiration‐based WUE t ( GPP / TR ) and inherent water‐use efficiency ( IWUE t , GPP × VPD / TR ) in response to rising CO 2 , climate change, and nitrogen deposition are also discussed. Our analyses will facilitate mechanistic understanding of the carbon–water interactions over terrestrial ecosystems under global change.

Huang, Mengtian↗

Simulating the role of surface forcing on observed multidecadal upper-ocean salinity changes

The ocean’s surface salinity field has changed over the observed record, driven by an intensification of the water cycle in response to global warming. However, the origin and causes of the coincident subsurface salinity changes are not fully understood. The relationship between imposed surface salinity and temperature changes and their corresponding subsurface changes is investigated using idealized ocean model experiments. The ocean’s surface has warmed by about 0.5°C (50 yr) –1 while the surface salinity pattern has amplified by about 8% per 50 years. The idealized experiments are constructed for a 50-yr period, allowing a qualitative comparison to the observed salinity and temperature changes previously reported. The comparison suggests that changes in both modeled surface salinity and temperature are required to replicate the three-dimensional pattern of observed salinity change. The results also show that the effects of surface changes in temperature and salinity act linearly on the changes in subsurface salinity. In addition, surface salinity pattern amplification appears to be the leading driver of subsurface salinity change on depth surfaces; however, surface warming is also required to replicate the observed patterns of change on density surfaces. This is the result of isopycnal migration modified by the ocean surface warming, which produces significant salinity changes on density surfaces.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Key determinants of global land-use projections

Land use is at the core of various sustainable development goals. Long-term climate foresight studies have structured their recent analyses around five socio-economic pathways (SSPs), with consistent storylines of future macroeconomic and societal developments; however, model quantification of these scenarios shows substantial heterogeneity in land-use projections. Here we build on a recently developed sensitivity approach to identify how future land use depends on six distinct socio-economic drivers (population, wealth, consumption preferences, agricultural productivity, land-use regulation, and trade) and their interactions. Spread across models arises mostly from diverging sensitivities to long-term drivers and from various representations of land-use regulation and trade, calling for reconciliation efforts and more empirical research. Most influential determinants for future cropland and pasture extent are population and agricultural efficiency. Furthermore, land-use regulation and consumption changes can play a key role in reducing both land use and food-security risks, and need to be central elements in sustainable development strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assumed non-persistent environmental chemicals in human adipose tissue; matrix stability and correlation with levels measured in urine and serum

The aim of this study was to (1) optimize a method for the measurement of parabens and phenols in adipose tissue, (2) evaluate the stability of chemical residues in adipose tissue samples, and (3) study correlations of these compounds in urine, serum, and adipose tissue. Samples were obtained from adults undergoing trauma surgery. Nine phenols and seven parabens were determined by isotope diluted TurboFlow-LC-MS/MS. The analytical method showed good accuracy and precision. Limits of detection (LOD) for parabens and phenols ranged from 0.05 to 1.83 ng/g tissue. Good recovery rates were found, even when biological samples remained defrosted up to 24 h. Benzophenone-3 (BP-3; range of values: 70% of adipose tissue samples, while bisphenol-A (BPA; 40% of adipose tissue samples. In general, levels were similar between adipose tissue and serum, while a correlation between adipose tissue and urine was only found for BP-3. In conclusion, adipose tissue samples in this study were found to contain environmental chemicals considered to be non-persistent, whose levels were weakly or not at all correlated with the urine burden. Therefore, adipose tissue may potentially provide additional information to that obtained from other biological matrices. Further investigations are warranted to explore whether adipose tissue might be a suitable matrix for assessment of the consequences for human health of mid/long-term exposure to these chemicals. - Highlights: • We analyzed levels of endocrine disruptors in adipose tissue, serum and urine. • We found BPA, TCS, BP-3, 2-PP and MeP in >40% of the adipose tissue samples. • Adipose tissue levels of npEDCs did not correlate with those in urine or serum. • Adipose tissue levels may have a different biological meaning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Separate collection of household food waste for anaerobic degradation - Comparison of different techniques from a systems perspective

Highlight: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Four modern and innovative systems for household food waste collection are compared. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Direct emissions and resource use were based on full-scale data. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Conservation of nutrients/energy content over the system was considered. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Systems with high energy/nutrient recovery are most environmentally beneficial. - Abstract: Four systems for household food waste collection are compared in relation the environmental impact categories eutrophication potential, acidification potential, global warming potential as well as energy use. Also, a hotspot analysis is performed in order to suggest improvements in each of the compared collection systems. Separate collection of household food waste in paper bags (with and without drying prior to collection) with use of kitchen grinders and with use of vacuum system in kitchen sinks were compared. In all cases, food waste was used for anaerobic digestion with energy and nutrient recovery in all cases. Compared systems all resulted in net avoidance of assessed environmental impact categories; eutrophication potential (-0.1 to -2.4 kg NO{sub 3}{sup -}eq/ton food waste), acidification potential (-0.4 to -1.0 kg SO{sub 2}{sup -}eq/ton food waste), global warming potential (-790 to -960 kg CO{sub 2}{sup -}eq/ton food waste) and primary energy use (-1.7 to -3.6 GJ/ton food waste). Collection with vacuum system results in the largest net avoidance of primary energy use, while disposal of food waste in paper bags for decentralized drying before collection result in a larger net avoidance of global warming, eutrophication and acidification. However, both these systems not have been taken into use in large scale systems yet and further investigations are needed in order to confirm the outcomes from the comparison. Ranking of scenarios differ largely if considering only emissions in the foreground system, indicating the importance of taking also downstream emissions into consideration when comparing different collection systems. The hot spot identification shows that losses of organic matter in mechanical pretreatment as well as tank connected food waste disposal systems and energy in drying and vacuum systems reply to the largest impact on the results in each system respectively.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Energy and water in the Great Lakes.

The nexus between thermoelectric power production and water use is not uniform across the U.S., but rather differs according to regional physiography, demography, power plant fleet composition, and the transmission network. That is, in some regions water demand for thermoelectric production is relatively small while in other regions it represents the dominate use. The later is the case for the Great Lakes region, which has important implications for the water resources and aquatic ecology of the Great Lakes watershed. This is today, but what about the future? Projected demographic trends, shifting lifestyles, and economic growth coupled with the threat of global climate change and mounting pressure for greater U.S. energy security could have profound effects on the region's energy future. Planning for such an uncertain future is further complicated by the fact that energy and environmental planning and regulatory decisionmaking is largely bifurcated in the region, with environmental and water resource concerns generally taken into account after new energy facilities and technologies have been proposed, or practices are already in place. Based on these confounding needs, the objective of this effort is to develop Great Lakes-specific methods and tools to integrate energy and water resource planning and thereby support the dual goals of smarter energy planning and development, and protection of Great Lakes water resources. Guiding policies for this planning are the Great Lakes and St. Lawrence River Basin Water Resources Compact and the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement. The desired outcome of integrated energy-water-aquatic resource planning is a more sustainable regional energy mix for the Great Lakes basin ecosystem.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Forest fire threatens global carbon sinks and population centres under rising atmospheric water demand

Levels of fire activity and severity that are unprecedented in the instrumental record have recently been observed in forested regions around the world. Using a large sample of daily fire events and hourly climate data, here we show that fire activity in all global forest biomes responds strongly and predictably to exceedance of thresholds in atmospheric water demand, as measured by maximum daily vapour pressure deficit. The climatology of vapour pressure deficit can therefore be reliably used to predict forest fire risk under projected future climates. We find that climate change is projected to lead to widespread increases in risk, with at least 30 additional days above critical thresholds for fire activity in forest biomes on every continent by 2100 under rising emissions scenarios. Escalating forest fire risk threatens catastrophic carbon losses in the Amazon and major population health impacts from wildfire smoke in south Asia and east Africa.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Influence of Large-Scale Radiation Anomalies on Tropical Cyclone Frequency

Abstract The response of tropical cyclone (TC) frequency to sea surface warming is uncertain in climate models. We hypothesize that one source of uncertainty is the anomalies of large-scale atmospheric radiation in response to climate change, and whose influence on TC frequency is investigated. Given two atmospheric models with opposite TC frequency responses to uniform sea surface warming, we interchange their atmospheric radiation anomalies in experiments with prescribed radiative heating rates. The largest model discrepancy occurs in the western North Pacific, where the TC frequency tends to increase with anomalous large-scale ascent caused by prescribed positive radiation anomalies, while the TC frequency tends to decrease with anomalous large-scale descent caused by prescribed negative radiation anomalies. The model spread in TC frequency response is approximated by the model spread in the frequency response of pre-TC vortices (seeds), which is explained by changes in the large-scale circulation using a downscaling formula known as the seed propensity index. We further generalize the index to predict the influence of large-scale radiation anomalies on TC seed frequency. The results show that model spread in TC and seed frequency response can be reduced when constraining the large-scale radiation anomalies. Significance Statement It is difficult to predict whether tropical cyclones will occur more or less frequently in the future and by how much. We show that tropical cyclone frequency is strongly influenced by the global pattern of heating and cooling due to radiation, a process that has been neglected in existing theories. Our theory improves understanding of how tropical cyclones respond to climate change, explaining why one model may predict a frequency increase while a different but equally realistic model may predict a frequency decrease. One reason for the difficulty in predicting tropical cyclone frequency is found to be the difficulty in predicting how global cloud distribution will change in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Nutrient cycling for biomass: Interactive proteomic/transcriptomic networks for global carbon management processes within poplar-mycorrhizal interactions

This project addresses the need to develop system-scale models at the symbiotic interface between ectomycorrhizal fungi (Laccaria bicolor) and tree species (Populus tremuloides) in response to environmental nutrient availability / biochemistry. Using our now well-established laboratory Laccaria x poplar system, we address the hypothesis that essential regulatory and metabolic mechanisms can be inferred from genomic, transcriptomic and proteomic-level changes that occur in response to environmental nutrient availability. The project addresses this hypothesis by applying state-of-the-art protein-level analytic approaches to fill the gap in our understanding of how mycorrhizal regulatory and metabolic processes at the transcript-level translate to nutrient uptake, carbon management and ultimate net primary productivity of plants. In most cases, these techniques were not previously optimized for poplar trees or Laccaria. Thus, one of the major contributions of this project has been to provide avenues for new research in these species by overcoming the pitfalls that had previously prevented the use of techniques such as ChIP-Seq and SWATH-proteomics. Since it is the proteins that sense and interact with the environment, participate in signal cascades, activate and regulate gene expression, perform the activities of metabolism and ultimately sequester carbon and generate biomass, an understanding of protein activities during symbiosis-linked nutrient uptake is critical to any systems-level approach that links metabolic processes to the environment. This project uses a team of experts at The University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), The University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) and Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to address the above hypothesis using a multiple "omics" approach that combines gene and protein expression as well as protein modifications, and biochemical analyses (performed at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL)) in poplar trees under mycorrhizal and free living conditions. Together, the assembled team of experts completed all of the planned milestones set forth in this project. In addition to the planned approaches, several lines of exciting new research have also evolved during the course of this project that involved FTIR Imaging using the National Synchrotron Light Source at BNL. A summary of the approaches used in this project and key highlights are as follows: Having the right combination of microbes associated with plants is largely responsible for the plant’s ability to mine nutrients from the soil and to develop a strong “immune system”. Our current chemically focused and intensive culture tends to forget that plants obtain nutrients in two ways: (1) via water soluble chemical nutrients and (2) via the activity of acquired microbial symbionts. In healthy natural ecosystems, chemical nutrients are always in low abundance because the organisms within that system have already locked such nutrients away within the biological system itself. Thus, in nature it is the biological sources of nutrients and the microbes that have the capacity to mine those nutrients for their plant hosts that actually control the terrestrial nutrient cycles on this planet. Thus, a new push in the future may very well be to use our skills at elucidating complex patterns to strategically guide soil microbe communities to do what we want, essentially allowing nature to do the work of figuring out what is most efficient and effective for human needs. However, the findings of this project and other work in our lab lead to the hypothesis that the specific soil community composition is less important than the emergent properties of those communities. So, additional research into what soil communities are effective and how they are established will be key in developing human understanding of how to manipulate biological systems to meet human needs without causing undue damage to our environment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The toughest animals of the Earth versus global warming: Effects of long‐term experimental warming on tardigrade community structure of a temperate deciduous forest

Abstract Understanding how different taxa respond to global warming is essential for predicting future changes and elaborating strategies to buffer them. Tardigrades are well known for their ability to survive environmental stressors, such as drying and freezing, by undergoing cryptobiosis and rapidly recovering their metabolic function after stressors cease. Determining the extent to which animals that undergo cryptobiosis are affected by environmental warming will help to understand the real magnitude climate change will have on these organisms. Here, we report on the responses of tardigrades within a five‐year‐long, field‐based artificial warming experiment, which consisted of 12 open‐top chambers heated to simulate the projected effects of global warming (ranging from 0 to 5.5°C above ambient temperature) in a temperate deciduous forest of North Carolina (USA). To elucidate the effects of warming on the tardigrade community inhabiting the soil litter, three community diversity indices (abundance, species richness, and Shannon diversity) and the abundance of the three most abundant species ( Diphascon pingue , Adropion scoticum , and Mesobiotus sp.) were determined. Their relationships with air temperature, soil moisture, and the interaction between air temperature and soil moisture were tested using Bayesian generalized linear mixed models. Despite observed negative effects of warming on other ground invertebrates in previous studies at this site, long‐term warming did not affect the abundance, richness, or diversity of tardigrades in this experiment. These results are in line with previous experimental studies, indicating that tardigrades may not be directly affected by ongoing global warming, possibly due to their thermotolerance and cryptobiotic abilities to avoid negative effects of stressful temperatures, and the buffering effect on temperature of the soil litter substrate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An air quality index-based multistage type-2-fuzzy interval-stochastic programming model for energy and environmental systems management under multiple uncertainties

Highlights: • A multistage type-2-fuzzy interval-stochastic programming (MTIP) method is developed. • Air quality index (AQI) is introduced to manage energy and environmental systems. • AQI-MTIP model is formulated and results for Tianjin's EES are generated. • Impacts of environmental requirements on energy systems is analyzed. • Results can provide support for making effective pollutant mitigation policy. In this study, a multistage type-2-fuzzy interval-stochastic programming (MTIP) method is developed, which extends upon the existing multistage stochastic programming (MSP) by allowing uncertainties expressed as probabilistic distributions, interval values and type-2 fuzzy sets to be effectively incorporated within the optimization framework. Through coupling air quality index (AQI) with MTIP, an AQI-MTIP model is formulated for energy and environmental systems (EES) management of Tianjin. A number of scenarios based on changed AQIs are examined to analyze the impacts of environmental requirements on the city's energy system. Results indicate that (i) with the improvement of environmental requirement, utilization of clean energies (especially natural gas) is provoked markedly; (ii) PM{sub 2.5} is the primary pollutant, 64.50% of which should be reduced each period to maintain the city's air quality at a health-safe level. These findings can help decision makers adjust energy structure, make effective mitigation strategy, and gain deep insight into the relationship between energy consumption and environmental requirement.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Diminishing seasonality of subtropical water availability in a warmer world dominated by soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks

Global warming is expected to cause wet seasons to get wetter and dry seasons to get drier, which would have broad social and ecological implications. However, the extent to which this seasonal paradigm holds over land remains unclear. Here we examine seasonal changes in surface water availability (precipitation minus evaporation, P–E) from CMIP5 and CMIP6 projections. While the P–E seasonal cycle does broadly intensify over much of the land surface, ~20% of land area experiences a diminished seasonal cycle, mostly over subtropical regions and the Amazon. Using land–atmosphere coupling experiments, we demonstrate that 63% of the seasonality reduction is driven by seasonally varying soil moisture (SM) feedbacks on P–E. Declining SM reduces evapotranspiration and modulates circulation to enhance moisture convergence and increase P–E in the dry season but not in the wet season. Our results underscore the importance of SM–atmosphere feedbacks for seasonal water availability changes in a warmer climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Anticipating water distribution service outages from increasing temperatures

With projected temperature increases and extreme events due to climate change for many regions of the world, characterizing the impacts of these emerging hazards on water distribution systems is necessary to identify and prioritize adaptation strategies for ensuring reliability. To aid decision-making, new insights are needed into how water distribution system reliability to climate-driven heat will change, and the proactive maintenance strategies available to combat failures. To this end, we present the model Perses, a framework that joins a water distribution network hydraulic solver with reliability models of physical assets or components to estimate temperature increase-driven failures and resulting service outages in the long term. A theoretical case study is developed using Phoenix, Arizona temperature profiles, a city with extreme temperatures and a rapidly expanding infrastructure. By end-of-century under hotter futures there are projected to be 1%–5% more pump failures, 2%–5% more PVC pipe failures, and 3%–7% more iron pipe failures (RCP 4.5–8.5) than a baseline historical temperature profile. Service outages, which constitute inadequate pressure for domestic and commercial use are projected to increase by 16%–26% above the baseline under maximum temperature conditions. The exceedance of baseline failures, when compounded across a large metro region, reveals potential challenges for budgeting, management, and maintenance. An exploration of the mitigation potential of adaptation strategies shows that expedited repair times are capable of offsetting the additional outages from climate change, but will come with a cost.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A species’ response to spatial climatic variation does not predict its response to climate change

The dominant paradigm for assessing ecological responses to climate change assumes that future states of individuals and populations can be predicted by current, species-wide performance variation across spatial climatic gradients. However, if the fates of ecological systems are better predicted by past responses to in situ climatic variation through time, this current analytical paradigm may be severely misleading. Empirically testing whether spatial or temporal climate responses better predict how species respond to climate change has been elusive, largely due to restrictive data requirements. Here, we leverage a newly collected network of ponderosa pine tree-ring time series to test whether statistically inferred responses to spatial versus temporal climatic variation better predict how trees have responded to recent climate change. When compared to observed tree growth responses to climate change since 1980, predictions derived from spatial climatic variation were wrong in both magnitude and direction. This was not the case for predictions derived from climatic variation through time, which were able to replicate observed responses well. Future climate scenarios through the end of the 21st century exacerbated these disparities. These results suggest that the currently dominant paradigm of forecasting the ecological impacts of climate change based on spatial climatic variation may be severely misleading over decadal to centennial timescales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗