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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power

Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1988

Dynamical interpretation of conditional patterns

While great progress is being made in characterizing the 3-D structure of organized turbulent motions using conditional averaging analysis, there is a lack of theoretical guidance regarding the interpretation and utilization of such information. Questions concerning the significance of the structures, their contributions to various transport properties, and their dynamics cannot be answered without recourse to appropriate dynamical governing equations. One approach which addresses some of these questions uses the conditional fields as initial conditions and calculates their evolution from the Navier-Stokes equations, yielding valuable information about stability, growth, and longevity of the mean structure. To interpret statistical aspects of the structures, a different type of theory which deals with the structures in the context of their contributions to the statistics of the flow is needed. As a first step toward this end, an effort was made to integrate the structural information from the study of organized structures with a suitable statistical theory. This is done by stochastically estimating the two-point conditional averages that appear in the equation for the one-point probability density function, and relating the structures to the conditional stresses. Salient features of the estimates are identified, and the structure of the one-point estimates in channel flow is defined.

Adrian, R. J.↗
NASA NTRS2007

RadSTAR L-Band Imaging Scatterometer: Performance Assessment

RadSTAR is an instrument development program aimed at combining a radiometer and a scatterometer system into a highly compact configuration that uses a single, electronically scanned antenna to provide co-located and simultaneous measurements of emission and backscatter for airborne and spaceborne applications [I]. The program was designed to map soil moisture and ocean salinity, both important components of the water cycle, and to map sea ice density and thickness, an important factor in ocean-atmosphere heat exchange in Polar Regions. The accuracy in estimation of these and a number of other Earth science parameters can be greatly enhanced by providing the co-aligned radar/radiometer microwave measurements. For instance, radiometer estimates of soil moisture from soil emission are affected by emission from vegetation, and from the roughness of the surface. Complementary measurements using the scatterometer can be used to evaluate the vegetation and surface roughness effects. Hence, the combined observations can provide an improved estimate. As with soil moisture, the ocean salinity is a function of the microwave emission from the sea surface temperature (SST) and sea roughness. There, the addition of radar backscatter measurements of sea roughness enables the correction of the emissivity and provide more accurate estimates of ocean salinity. Similar arguments can be made for other important Earth science parameters. This paper discusses the RadSTAR program, the radar system design, calibration, and digital beamforming techniques, and presents preliminary analysis of the data collected during the test flights. The data sets obtained during the flights and during the radar calibration in the anechoic chamber are also employed to asses the performance of the radar. The paper also discusses the Digital Beamforming Synthetic Aperture Radar (DBSAR) processor, a real-time processor recently developed for the LIS instrument which enables beam synthesis, fine resolutions, and large swaths.

Rincon, Rafael↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Nonequilibrium Thermodynamic Approach for Surface Energy Balance Closure

Abstract The surface energy imbalance, viz. that the turbulent dissipation does not fully account for available energy, has for long been an outstanding challenge in geophysical studies. In this study, we developed a novel approach based on nonequilibrium thermodynamics by representing the atmospheric boundary layer as a heat engine. In addition, an analytically tractable approach was used to estimate the ground heat flux based on Green's function approach, which in turn determines the available energy that drives the atmospheric heat engine. The proposed model was evaluated using heat fluxes measured by eight AmeriFlux eddy covariance towers with atmospheric temperature profiles recorded at adjacent radiosonde sites. The surface energy balance closure can be improved by ~11% over various landscapes, by including the estimated power production from the atmospheric heat engine.

Li, Peiyuan↗
NASA NTRS1991

Surface and aerosol models for use in radiative transfer codes

Absolute reflectance-based radiometric calibrations of Landsat-5 Thematic Mapper (TM) are improved with the inclusion of a method to invert optical-depth measurements to obtain aerosol-particle size distributions, and a non-Lambertian surface reflectance model. The inverted size distributions can predict radiances varying from the previously assumed jungian distributions by as much as 5 percent, though the reduction in the estimated error is less than one percent. Comparison with measured diffuse-to-global ratios show that neither distribution consistently predicts the ratio accurately, and this is shown to be a large contributor to calibration uncertainties. An empirical model for the surface reflectance of White Sands, using a two-degree polynomial fit as a function of scattering angle, was employed. The model reduced estimated errors in radiance predictions by up to one percent. Satellite calibrations dating from October, 1984 were reprocessed using the improved methods and linear estimations of satellite counts per unit radiance versus time since launch were determined which showed a decrease over time for the first four bands.

Hart, Quinn J.↗
DOE OSTI2016

Theory of molecular conductance using a modular approach

This paper probes the correlation between the conductance of a molecular wire (the property of a whole system) and its constituent backbone units (modules). By using a tight-binding Hamiltonian combined with single-particle Green’s functions, we develop an approach that enables an estimate of a conductance decay constant in terms of the Hamiltonians of molecular backbone units and the couplings between two nearest-neighbor units in the off-resonant tunneling regime. For demonstration, we examine several representative molecular systems in a framework of the Hückel model (the simplest atomistic-level model). The Hückel model can be reduced to a single-orbital-per-site formulation [A. Nitzan, Annu. Rev. Phys. Chem. 52, 681 (2001)], and each energy level in the single-orbital-per-site picture can be expressed in an explicit form including the synergistic effect of all molecular orbitals of a molecular backbone unit. Finally, based on the proposed approach, we show the correspondence between the complete destructive quantum interference and an infinite injection gap and derive the preconditions of the modified Simmons equation and the rule of intramolecular series circuits.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2019

Estimating the density of states of frustrated spin systems

Abstract Estimating the density of states (DOS) of systems with rugged free energy landscapes is a notoriously difficult task of the utmost importance in many areas of physics ranging from spin glasses to biopolymers. DOS estimation has also recently become an indispensable tool for the benchmarking of quantum annealers when these function as samplers. Some of the standard approaches suffer from a spurious convergence of the estimates to metastable minima, and these cases are particularly hard to detect. Here, we introduce a sampling technique based on population annealing enhanced with a multi-histogram analysis and report on its performance for spin glasses. We demonstrate its ability to overcome the pitfalls of other entropic samplers, resulting in some cases in large scaling advantages that can lead to the uncovering of new physics. The new technique avoids some inherent difficulties in established approaches and can be applied to a wide range of systems without relevant tailoring requirements. Benchmarking of the studied techniques is facilitated by the introduction of several schemes that allow us to achieve exact counts of the degeneracies of the tested instances.

Barash, Lev (ORCID:000000022298785X)↗
NASA NTRS1991

Compile-time estimation of communication costs in multicomputers

An important problem facing numerous research projects on parallelizing compilers for distributed memory machines is that of automatically determining a suitable data partitioning scheme for a program. Any strategy for automatic data partitioning needs a mechanism for estimating the performance of a program under a given partitioning scheme, the most crucial part of which involves determining the communication costs incurred by the program. A methodology is described for estimating the communication costs at compile-time as functions of the numbers of processors over which various arrays are distributed. A strategy is described along with its theoretical basis, for making program transformations that expose opportunities for combining of messages, leading to considerable savings in the communication costs. For certain loops with regular dependences, the compiler can detect the possibility of pipelining, and thus estimate communication costs more accurately than it could otherwise. These results are of great significance to any parallelization system supporting numeric applications on multicomputers. In particular, they lay down a framework for effective synthesis of communication on multicomputers from sequential program references.

Gupta, Manish↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining the Multiscale Structure of Geophysical Fields in Machine Learning: The Case of Precipitation

The use of deep-learning algorithms for estimating the value of geophysical variables from remotely sensed information is rapidly expanding. The typical objective function minimized in such algorithms is the mean square error (MSE), which is known to lead to smooth estimates with compressed dynamical range as compared to the true distribution of the variable of interest. Here, we introduce and evaluate alternative objective functions, focusing on the retrieval of precipitation rates from satellite passive microwave radiometric measurements using a deep convolutional neural network. For this testbed application, the results show that explicitly imposing the preservation of the statistical distribution and spatial wavelet power spectrum of the target variable allows to accurately reproduce extreme values and sharp gradients across multiple scales in this study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1987

Robust time and frequency domain estimation methods in adaptive control

A robust identification method was developed for use in an adaptive control system. The type of estimator is called the robust estimator, since it is robust to the effects of both unmodeled dynamics and an unmeasurable disturbance. The development of the robust estimator was motivated by a need to provide guarantees in the identification part of an adaptive controller. To enable the design of a robust control system, a nominal model as well as a frequency-domain bounding function on the modeling uncertainty associated with this nominal model must be provided. Two estimation methods are presented for finding parameter estimates, and, hence, a nominal model. One of these methods is based on the well developed field of time-domain parameter estimation. In a second method of finding parameter estimates, a type of weighted least-squares fitting to a frequency-domain estimated model is used. The frequency-domain estimator is shown to perform better, in general, than the time-domain parameter estimator. In addition, a methodology for finding a frequency-domain bounding function on the disturbance is used to compute a frequency-domain bounding function on the additive modeling error due to the effects of the disturbance and the use of finite-length data. The performance of the robust estimator in both open-loop and closed-loop situations is examined through the use of simulations.

Lamaire, Richard Orville↗
NASA NTRS1994

Hot gas in the cold dark matter scenario: X-ray clusters from a high-resolution numerical simulation

A new, three-dimensional, shock-capturing hydrodynamic code is utilized to determine the distribution of hot gas in a standard cold dark matter (CDM) model of the universe. Periodic boundary conditions are assumed: a box with size 85 h(exp -1) Mpc having cell size 0.31 h(exp -1) Mpc is followed in a simulation with 270(exp 3) = 10(exp 7.3) cells. Adopting standard parameters determined from COBE and light-element nucleosynthesis, sigma(sub 8) = 1.05, omega(sub b) = 0.06, and assuming h = 0.5, we find the X-ray-emitting clusters and compute the luminosity function at several wavelengths, the temperature distribution, and estimated sizes, as well as the evolution of these quantities with redshift. We find that most of the total X-ray emissivity in our box originates in a relatively small number of identifiable clusters which occupy approximately 10(exp -3) of the box volume. This standard CDM model, normalized to COBE, produces approximately 5 times too much emission from clusters having L(sub x) is greater than 10(exp 43) ergs/s, a not-unexpected result. If all other parameters were unchanged, we would expect adequate agreement for sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. This provides a new and independent argument for lower small-scale power than standard CDM at the 8 h(exp -1) Mpc scale. The background radiation field at 1 keV due to clusters in this model is approximately one-third of the observed background, which, after correction for numerical effects, again indicates approximately 5 times too much emission and the appropriateness of sigma(sub 8) = 0.6. If we have used the observed ratio of gas to total mass in clusters, rather than basing the mean density on light-element nucleosynthesis, then the computed luminosity of each cluster would have increased still further, by a factor of approximately 10. The number density of clusters increases to z approximately 1, but the luminosity per typical cluster decreases, with the result that evolution in the number density of bright clusters is moderate in this redshift range, showing a broad peak near z = 0.7, and then a rapid decline above redshift z = 3. Detailed computations of the luminosity functions in the range L(sub x) = 10(exp 40) - 10(exp 44) ergs/s in various energy bands are presented for both cluster central regions and total luminosities to be used in comparison with ROSAT and other observational data sets. The quantitative results found disagree significantly with those found by other investigators using semianalytic techniques. We find little dependence of core radius on cluster luminosity and a dependence of temperature on luminosity given by log kT(sub x) = A + B log L(sub x), which is slightly steeper (B = 0.38) than is indicated by observations. Computed temperatures are somewhat higher than observed, as expected, in that COBE-normalized CDM has too much power on the relevant scales. A modest average temperature gradient is found, with temperatures dropping to 90% of central values at 0.4 h(exp -1) Mpc and 70% of central values at 0.9 h(exp -1) Mpc. Examining the ratio of gas to total mass in the clusters normalized to Omega(sub B) h(exp 2) = 0.015, and comparing with observations, we conclude, in agreement with White (1991), that the cluster observations argue for an open universe.

Kang, Hyesung↗
NASA NTRS1980

Estimating probabilities of cloud-free fields-of-view from the earth through the atmosphere

The paper is an extension of previous papers by Lund and Shanklin (1972, 1973). It presents probabilities of cloud-free fields-of-view (CFFOV) to supplement probabilities of cloud-free lines-of-sight (CFLOS) contained in the earlier papers. A model is developed for estimating the probability of obtaining a CFFOV as a function of ground-observer-reported total sky cover for earth-to-space applications. The development of the model and examples of its application are described. A comparison of CFFOV and CFLOS results is made. In conclusion, climatic probabilities of CFFOV overhead through the entire atmosphere between the surface of the earth and space can be estimated for any desired geographical location through the use of a specified equation and conditional probabilities contained in the paper, if the frequency distribution of total sky cover categories for the desired location is known.

Lund, I. A.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A spectral analysis of the earth's angular momentum budget

The exchange of angular momentum between the solid earth and the atmosphere from January 1976 through March 1982 is investigated using estimates of the earth's rotation from optical astrometry and lunar laser ranging and meteorological estimates of the atmospheric angular momentum M(atm). The physics of the earth's angular momentum budget is described, and earth rotation measurements are related to changes in the angular momentum of the fluid parts of the earth. The availability and reliability of earth rotation and M(atm) data are reported, and the possibility of estimating the exchange of angular momentum with the oceans and with the core is examined. Estimates of the power spectrum, cospectral coherence, and linear transfer functions and an analysis of the unmodeled part of the angular momentum budget are presented and discussed. The amplitude and phase of the semiannual, monthly, and fortnightly tidal variations in the length of day are estimated after removing observed atmospheric excitation.

Eubanks, T. M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Static shape control for flexible structures

An integrated methodology is described for defining static shape control laws for large flexible structures. The techniques include modeling, identifying and estimating the control laws of distributed systems characterized in terms of infinite dimensional state and parameter spaces. The models are expressed as interconnected elliptic partial differential equations governing a range of static loads, with the capability of analyzing electromagnetic fields around antenna systems. A second-order analysis is carried out for statistical errors, and model parameters are determined by maximizing an appropriate defined likelihood functional which adjusts the model to observational data. The parameter estimates are derived from the conditional mean of the observational data, resulting in a least squares superposition of shape functions obtained from the structural model.

Rodriguez, G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Probing quasar viewing angle with the variability structure function

Given the anisotropic emission from quasar accretion discs, their viewing angle affects estimates of the quasar luminosity, black hole mass, and Eddington ratio. Discs appear overluminous when viewed pole-on and underluminous when viewed at high inclination. In radio-quiet quasars, the viewing angle is usually unknown, although spectroscopic indicators have been proposed. Here, we use a recently discovered universality in the variability structure function (SF) of quasar light curves (LCs), where all quasars show the same SF when clocks run in units of orbital time-scale. As an offset from the mean relation can be caused by incorrect orbital time-scales and thus incorrect luminosities, we correlate these offsets with suggested inclination indicators. We derive SFs from NASA/Asteroid Terrestrial-impact Last Alert System (ATLAS) LCs spanning ~6 yr of observation, using a sample of 183 luminous quasars with measured H β lines as well as 753 quasars with C $\tiny{IV}$ and Mg $\tiny{II}$ lines. Starting from the proposed orientation indicators, we expect quasars with narrower H β lines and with more blueshifted C $\tiny{IV}$ lines to be viewed more pole-on and thus appear overluminous. In contrast, our SF analysis finds that presumed pole-on discs appear underluminous, consistently for both line indicators. We discuss possible explanations for the behaviour of quasars with highly blueshifted C $\tiny{IV}$ lines irrespective of inclination angle, including dusty outflows that might render the accretion disc underluminous and flatter disc temperature profiles with longer orbital time-scales than in thin-disc models but reach no satisfying conclusion.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Further Investigation of Employing Binomial Small-Sample Estimator in M-LROM

Reduced Order Modeling (ROM) is essential to enable the identification of the so-called active parameter subspace for high-fidelity models that are employed in computationally intensive analyses such as uncertainty characterization and data assimilation. Given the complexity of models for real-world application, brute force methods to identify the active subspace may not be computationally efficient to realize the value of reduction, since in realistic problems, the full scale model must be executed few hundred times, which may be computationally taxing. Earlier work has introduced a new approach, which represents a further development of our previous work on ROM, referred to as multi-level ROM (M-LROM). In M-LROM, approximate models are employed to identify the active subspace instead of the full scale model. In this summary, we present our recent results on M-LROM, specifically in regard to the construction of reliable error metrics that can bound the errors resulting from the reduction. The idea is to employ a lower fidelity model, i.e., an approximation of the full scale or high fidelity model, to build the active subspace, and via the proposed error bound, the quality of the active subspace can be determined by calculating an upper bound on the errors resulting from the reduction. For this approach to be practical, the error bound must be realistic, implying that it should be close to the actual errors expected, and not much higher. Therefore, an important goal of this summary is to compare different error bounds in terms of the relation between their estimated bounds to the actual errors. In particular, we compare the proposed error bound which numerically construct an estimator using binomial distribution to the widely used small-sample norm estimators. Unlike most probabilistic error estimation methods, the proposed bound employs a binomial distribution to construct the estimator whereas in other conventional methods, the distribution employed is typically the standard Gaussian, normalized over a unit hypersphere as initially proposed by the seminal paper of J. Dixon on random matrix theory. Previous publications provided evidence that the binomial distribution calculates more realistic bounds as compared to the Gaussian distribution, which tends to be conservative, implying that the bound is much bigger than the actual errors, which diminishes the value of the reduction, as now must increase the size of the active subspace to reach the desired upper bound on the reduction errors. This work has provided a rigorous approach by which error bounds on the reduction errors can be established without having to execute the high fidelity model during the construction of the active subspace. The high fidelity model is only need to test the error bound using small number of executions. This methodology paves the way for a more efficient application of ROM to complex engineering models, where standard ROM techniques may be too taxing to optimally realize their value in practical situations. (authors)

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Estimates for Sonic-Boom Pressure Signatures and Loudness Carpets

A non-intrusive uncertainty quantification method is applied to computational analysis of supersonic, low-boom aircraft. The mean and standard deviation statistics of the pressure waveforms and loudness metrics are evaluated through use of numerical quadrature. The probability density function (p.d.f.) of these outputs is evaluated via kernel density estimation. The simulations use an inviscid, embedded-boundary Cartesian-mesh flow solver in the nearfield combined with an augmented Burgers’ equation solver for propagation in the farfield. The results show that the p.d.f. of the waveform is bimodal at shocks, which makes the mean and standard deviation statistics inappropriate. Despite this limitation, we show that the moment statistics can provide effective assessment of discrepancies when comparing with experimental data. This is demonstrated by presenting uncertainty analysis of a wind-tunnel test and showing that we significantly improve the predictions when we include the test uncertainties in the simulation. Normal distributions are obtained for the ground signature and loudness metrics, which is primarily due to the careful shaping of the low-boom waveform. Separation of variables and error control are used to reduce computational cost. We demonstrate that this is an efficient approach in the sense of balancing numerical errors in the statistics quadrature with discretization errors in the solvers.

ARMD↗
DOE OSTI2019

Laser Source Influence on the Preferential Growth and the Inversion Degree in Pulsed Laser CoFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} Films

A comparative study between cobalt ferrite films deposited by pulsed laser deposition as a function of the laser sources, 355 nm (Nd:YAG) and 248 nm (KrF excimer), on amorphous quartz (AQ) and < 100 > -oriented silicon wafer (SW) at different temperatures (650–800 {sup ∘}C) is presented. Also, a quantitative estimation of the preferential crystalline growth orientation as laser source function was made by means of Lotgering factor and Harris texture coefficient, which were obtained from XRD patterns. The inversion degree in spinel-type structure for cobalt ferrite films was calculated through a deconvolution in Raman spectra, where the band A{sub 1g} vibrating modes in tetrahedral sites were associated with Fe and Co sites (687 and 611 cm{sup −1}, respectively). Additionally, saturation magnetization was also calculated from the inversion degree obtained from deconvolution of the Raman spectra in CoFe{sub 2}O{sub 4} films, being compared with experimental results, which is in a good agreement with cobalt ferrite bulk, and we also correlated the preferential growth and the particle size with increment of the coercive field.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗