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Evaluation and Windspeed Dependence of MODIS Aerosol Retrievals Over Open Ocean

The Maritime Aerosol Network (MAN) data set provides high quality ground-truth to validate the MODIS aerosol product over open ocean. Prior validation of the ocean aerosol product has been limited to coastal and island sites. Comparing MODIS Collection 5 ocean aerosol retrieval products with collocated MAN measurements from ships shows that MODIS is meeting the pre-launch uncertainty estimates for aerosol optical depth (AOD) with 64% and 67% of retrievals at 550 nm, and 74% and 78% of retrievals at 870 nm, falling within expected uncertainty for Terra and Aqua, respectively. Angstrom Exponent comparisons show a high correlation between MODIS retrievals and shipboard measurements (R= 0.85 Terra, 0.83 Aqua), although the MODIS aerosol algorithm tends to underestimate particle size for large particles and overestimate size for small particles, as seen in earlier Collections. Prior analysis noted an offset between Terra and Aqua ocean AOD, without concluding which sensor was more accurate. The simple linear regression reported here, is consistent with other anecdotal evidence that Aqua agreement with AERONET is marginally better. However we cannot claim based on the current study that the better Aqua comparison is statistically significant. Systematic increase of error as a function of wind speed is noted in both Terra and Aqua retrievals. This wind speed dependency enters the retrieval when winds deviate from the 6 m/s value assumed in the rough ocean surface and white cap parameterizations. Wind speed dependency in the results can be mitigated by using auxiliary NCEP wind speed information in the retrieval process.

Kleidman, Richard G.↗

Moving metal artifact reduction in cone-beam CT scans with implanted cylindrical gold markers

Purpose: Implanted gold markers for image-guided radiotherapy lead to streaking artifacts in cone-beam CT (CBCT) scans. Several methods for metal artifact reduction (MAR) have been published, but they all fail in scans with large motion. Here the authors propose and investigate a method for automatic moving metal artifact reduction (MMAR) in CBCT scans with cylindrical gold markers. Methods: The MMAR CBCT reconstruction method has six steps. (1) Automatic segmentation of the cylindrical markers in the CBCT projections. (2) Removal of each marker in the projections by replacing the pixels within a masked area with interpolated values. (3) Reconstruction of a marker-free CBCT volume from the manipulated CBCT projections. (4) Reconstruction of a standard CBCT volume with metal artifacts from the original CBCT projections. (5) Estimation of the three-dimensional (3D) trajectory during CBCT acquisition for each marker based on the segmentation in Step 1, and identification of the smallest ellipsoidal volume that encompasses 95% of the visited 3D positions. (6) Generation of the final MMAR CBCT reconstruction from the marker-free CBCT volume of Step 3 by replacing the voxels in the 95% ellipsoid with the corresponding voxels of the standard CBCT volume of Step 4. The MMAR reconstruction was performed retrospectively using a half-fan CBCT scan for 29 consecutive stereotactic body radiation therapy patients with 2–3 gold markers implanted in the liver. The metal artifacts of the MMAR reconstructions were scored and compared with a standard MAR reconstruction by counting the streaks and by calculating the standard deviation of the Hounsfield units in a region around each marker. Results: The markers were found with the same autosegmentation settings in 27 CBCT scans, while two scans needed slightly changed settings to find all markers automatically in Step 1 of the MMAR method. MMAR resulted in 15 scans with no streaking artifacts, 11 scans with 1–4 streaks, and 3 scans with severe streaking artifacts. The corresponding numbers for MAR were 8 (no streaks), 1 (1–4 streaks), and 20 (severe streaking artifacts). The MMAR method was superior to MAR in scans with more than 8 mm 3D marker motion and comparable to MAR for scans with less than 8 mm motion. In addition, the MMAR method was tested on a 4D CBCT reconstruction for which it worked equally well as for the 3D case. The markers in the 4D case had very low motion blur. Conclusions: An automatic method for MMAR in CBCT scans was proposed and shown to effectively remove almost all streaking artifacts in a large set of clinical CBCT scans with implanted gold markers in the liver. Residual streaking artifacts observed in three CBCT scans may be removed with better marker segmentation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Effect of polymer residues on the electrical properties of large-area graphene–hexagonal boron nitride planar heterostructures

Polymer residue plays an important role in the performance of 2D heterostructured materials. Herein, we study the effect of polymer residual impurities on the electrical properties of graphene–boron nitride planar heterostructures. Large-area graphene (Gr) and hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN) monolayers were synthesized using chemical vapor deposition techniques. Atomic van-der-Waals heterostructure layers based on varied configurations of Gr and h-BN layers were assembled. The average interlayer resistance of the heterojunctions over a 1 cm 2 area for several planar heterostructure configurations was assessed by impedance spectroscopy and modeled by equivalent electrical circuits. As a result, conductive AFM measurements showed that the presence of polymer residues on the surface of the Gr and h-BN monolayers resulted in significant resistance deviations over nanoscale regions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SU-E-T-325: Dosimetric Impact Due to FlexiShield in Electronic Brachytherapy (eBx) of Breast IORT: A Phantom Study

Purpose: To evaluate dosimetric change of eBx plan due to Flexishield. Methods: To simulate a clinically difficult case (skin spacing < 1 cm and touching chest wall), prostheses breast tissue phantom overlaid Xoft spherical balloon applicator. To minimize significant metal streak artifact, megavoltage CT (MVCT) scan was acquired using helical TomoTherapy HiART. Two sets of MVCT images were taken with/without FlexiShield for 15 cases: 4 for small (3–4 cm), 4 for medium (4–5 cm) and 7 for large (5–6 cm) balloon. Total 30 MVCT scans were obtained with 50 % contrast to improve image contrast of balloon relative to breast tissue phantom. Balloon deformation was measured in anterior-posterior (AP) and lateral (LAT) dimensions in the middle of balloon. Skin spacing was also evaluated. Treatment plan was made based on each MVCT scan and two balloon surface doses (AP and LAT directions) and skin dose were compared between plans with/without FlexiShield. Results: The balloon was deformed due to pressure from both FlexiShield (skin side) and FlexiShield mini (chest wall side). Mean ± standard deviation (maximum) value was 1.5 ± 1.0 mm (3.3 mm) for AP compression and 0.4 ± 0.3 mm (1.1 mm) for LAT expansion. Balloon surface dose was increased by 1.8 ± 1.2 Gy (4.9 Gy) at AP point and decreased by 0.4 ± 0.4 Gy (1.3 Gy) at LAT point. Skin spacing was constantly reduced by 1.1 ± 0.8 mm (3 mm). Skin surface dose was increased by 1.5 ± 0.8 Gy (3.3 Gy) and its relative increase was 17.9 ± 9.3% (39.6%). Conclusion: FlexiShield deforms the balloon and reduces skin spacing, thereby resulting in higher dose in AP direction, lower dose in LAT direction, and elevated skin dose compared to the plan without FlexiShield. In the clinic, this balloon deformation and corresponding dose variation should be considered.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Conformal image-guided microbeam radiation therapy at the ESRF biomedical beamline ID17

Purpose: Upcoming veterinary trials in microbeam radiation therapy (MRT) demand for more advanced irradiation techniques than in preclinical research with small animals. The treatment of deep-seated tumors in cats and dogs with MRT requires sophisticated irradiation geometries from multiple ports, which impose further efforts to spare the normal tissue surrounding the target. Methods: This work presents the development and benchmarking of a precise patient alignment protocol for MRT at the biomedical beamline ID17 of the European Synchrotron Radiation Facility (ESRF). The positioning of the patient prior to irradiation is verified by taking x-ray projection images from different angles. Results: Using four external fiducial markers of 1.7 mm diameter and computed tomography-based treatment planning, a target alignment error of less than 2 mm can be achieved with an angular deviation of less than 2{sup ∘}. Minor improvements on the protocol and the use of smaller markers indicate that even a precision better than 1 mm is technically feasible. Detailed investigations concerning the imaging dose lead to the conclusion that doses for skull radiographs lie in the same range as dose reference levels for human head radiographs. A currently used online dose monitor for MRT has been proven to give reliable results for the imaging beam. Conclusions: The ESRF biomedical beamline ID17 is technically ready to apply conformal image-guided MRT from multiple ports to large animals during future veterinary trials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Incipient failure detection (IFD) of SSME ball bearings

Because of the immense noise background during the operation of a large engine such as the SSME, the relatively low level unique ball bearing signatures were often buried by the overall machine signal. As a result, the most commonly used bearing failure detection technique, pattern recognition using power spectral density (PSD) constructed from the extracted bearing signals, is rendered useless. Data enhancement techniques were carried out by using a HP5451C Fourier Analyzer. The signal was preprocessed by a Digital Audio Crop. DAC-1024I noise cancelling filter in order to estimate the desired signal corrupted by the backgound noise. Reference levels of good bearings were established. Any deviation of bearing signals from these reference levels indicate the incipient bearing failures.

Source record↗

Search for Higgs bosons produced in association with a high-energy photon via vector-boson fusion and decaying to a pair of b -quarks in the ATLAS detector

A search for Standard Model Higgs bosons produced in association with a high-energy photon and decaying to $b\bar{b}$ is performed using 133 fb −1 of $\sqrt{s}$ = 13 TeV pp collision data collected with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider at CERN. The photon requirement reduces the multijet background, and the H → $b\bar{b}$ decay is the dominant decay mode. Event selection requirements target events produced by vector-boson fusion, the dominant production mode in this channel. Several improvements enhance the search sensitivity compared to previous measurements. These improvements include better background modelling and characterization, the use of a neural-network classifier, and an updated signal extraction strategy adopting a direct binned-likelihood fit to the classifier output. With these improvements, the Higgs boson signal strength is measured to be 0.2 ± 0.7 relative to the Standard Model prediction. This corresponds to an observed significance of 0.3 standard deviations, compared to an expectation of 1.5 standard deviations assuming the Standard Model.

ATLAS experiment↗

Structural, electronic and optical properties of monoclinic Na{sub 2}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 7} from density functional theory calculations: A comparison with XRD and optical absorption measurements

Powder samples of bulk monoclinic sodium trititanate Na{sub 2}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 7} were prepared carefully by solid state reaction, and its monoclinic P2{sub 1}/m crystal structure and morphology were characterized by X-ray powder diffraction (XRD) and scanning electron microscopy (SEM), respectively. Moreover, the sodium trititanate main energy band gap was estimated as E{sub g}=3.51±0.01 eV employing UV–Vis spectroscopy, which is smaller than the measured 3.70 eV energy gap published previously by other authors. Aiming to achieve a better understanding of the experimental data, density functional theory (DFT) computations were performed within the local density and generalized gradient approximations (LDA and GGA, respectively) taking into account dispersion effects through the scheme of Tkatchenko and Scheffler (GGA+TS). Optimal lattice parameters, with deviations relative to measurements Δa=−0.06 Å, Δb=0.02 Å, and Δc=−0.09 Å, were obtained at the GGA level, which was then used to simulate the sodium trititanate electronic and optical properties. Indirect band transitions have led to a theoretical gap energy value of about 3.25 eV. Our results, however, differ from pioneer DFT results with respect to the specific Brillouin zone vectors for which the indirect transition with smallest energy value occurs. Effective masses for electrons and holes were also estimated along a set of directions in reciprocal space. Lastly, our calculations revealed a relatively large degree of optical isotropy for the Na{sub 2}Ti{sub 3}O{sub 7} optical absorption and complex dielectric function. - Graphical abstract: Monoclinic sodium trititanate Na2Ti3O7 was characterized by experiment and dispersion-corrected DFT calculations. An indirect gap of 3.5 eV is predicted, with heavy electrons and anisotropic holes ruling its conductivity. - Highlights: • Monoclinic Na2Ti3O7 was characterized by experiment (XRD, SEM, UV–Vis spectroscopy). • DFT GGA+TS optimized geometry and optoelectronic properties were obtained. • An experimental (theoretical) indirect gap of 3.5 (3.25) eV is predicted. • Heavy electrons and anisotropic holes rule the conductivity. • Ti-O bond lengths and charge states probably cause oxygen reactivity variations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Testing DARKexp against energy and density distributions of Millennium-II halos

We test the DARKexp model for relaxed, self-gravitating, collisionless systems against equilibrium dark matter halos from the Millennium-II simulation. While limited tests of DARKexp against simulations and observations have been carried out elsewhere, this is the first time the testing is done with a large sample of simulated halos spanning a factor of ∼ 50 in mass, and using independent fits to density and energy distributions. We show that DARKexp, a one shape parameter family, provides very good fits to the shapes of density profiles, ρ( r ), and differential energy distributions, N ( E ), of individual simulated halos. The best fit shape parameter φ{sub 0} obtained from the two types of fits are correlated, though with scatter. Our most important conclusions come from ρ( r ) and N ( E ) that have been averaged over many halos. These show that the bulk of the deviations between DARKexp and individual Millennium-II halos come from halo-to-halo fluctuations, likely driven by substructure, and other density perturbations. The average ρ( r ) and N ( E ) are quite smooth and follow DARKexp very closely. The only deviation that remains after averaging is small, and located at most bound energies for N ( E ) and smallest radii for ρ( r ). Since the deviation is confined to 3–4 smoothing lengths, and is larger for low mass halos, it is likely due to numerical resolution effects.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Predictive Coordinated and Cooperative Voltage Control for Systems With High Penetration of PV

In this paper, we propose a predictive coordinated and cooperative voltage control method in a power distribution system with high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) units. First, an integrated coordinated voltage control of voltage regulators (VRs) tap positions and cooperative distributed control of the reactive power output from PV inverters are used to maintain system voltages within an appropriate bandwidth. Next, solar power forecasting is applied to predict voltage changes, which are used to set the VR tap positions and capacitor switch status to prevent large voltage fluctuations. The fine tuning of voltage adjustment is then achieved by cooperative control of PV inverters to maintain a uniform voltage profile across the system. The proposed method is tested on a modified IEEE 123-node test feeder with high penetration of PVs using real measurement data and compared with the base case. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of the integrated voltage control, as well as the enhancement from the predictive control through solar power forecasting-enabled voltage change estimates. Comparison to previous work in the literature shows significant improvement in terms of voltage deviation and reduction in excessive tap changes.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Observed and Modelled Aerosol Lifetimes Using Radioactive Tracers of Opportunity and an Ensemble of 19 Global Models

Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 (Cs-137) and xenon-133 (Xe-133) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. Cs-137 size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, Cs-137 can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas Xe-133 behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of Cs-137that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and Xe-133 emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled Cs-137and Xe-133 concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime e, calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95% confidence interval 13.1-15.7 days). The equivalent modelled e lifetimes have a large spread, varying between 4.8 and 26.7 days with a model median of 9.42.3 days, indicating too fast a removal in most models. Because sufficient measurement data were only available from about 2 weeks after the release, the estimated lifetimes apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport, i.e. not for freshly emitted aerosol. However, modelled instantaneous lifetimes show that the initial removal in the first 2 weeks was quicker (lifetimes between 1 and 5 days) due to the emissions occurring at low altitudes and co-location of the fresh plume with strong precipitation. Deviations between measured and modelled aerosol lifetimes are largest for the northernmost stations and at later time periods, suggesting that models do not transport enough of the aerosol towards the Arctic. The models underestimate passive tracer (Xe-133) concentrations in the Arctic as well but to a smaller extent than for the aerosol (Cs-137) tracer. This indicates that in addition to too fast an aerosol removal in the models, errors in simulated atmospheric transport towards the Arctic in most models also contribute to the underestimation of the Arctic aerosol concentrations.

Radioactive isotopes↗

Stochastic density functional theory

Linear-scaling implementations of density functional theory (DFT) reach their intended efficiency regime only when applied to systems having a physical size larger than the range of their Kohn–Sham density matrix (DM). This causes a problem since many types of large systems of interest have a rather broad DM range and are therefore not amenable to analysis using DFT methods. For this reason, the recently proposed stochastic DFT (sDFT), avoiding exhaustive DM evaluations, is emerging as an attractive alternative linear-scaling approach. This review develops a general formulation of sDFT in terms of a (non)orthogonal basis representation and offers an analysis of the statistical errors (SEs) involved in the calculation. Using a new Gaussian-type basis-set implementation of sDFT, applied to water clusters and silicon nanocrystals, it demonstrates and explains how the standard deviation and the bias depend on the sampling rate and the system size in various types of calculations. We also develop a basis-set embedded-fragments theory, demonstrating its utility for reducing the SEs for energy, density of states and nuclear force calculations. Finally, we discuss the algorithmic complexity of sDFT, showing it has CPU wall-time linear-scaling. Lastly, the method parallelizes well over distributed processors with good scalability and therefore may find use in the upcoming exascale computing architectures.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Measurement of the $t\bar{t} t\bar{t}$ production cross section in pp collisions at $ \sqrt{s} $ = 13 TeV with the ATLAS detector

A measurement of four-top-quark production using proton-proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of 13 TeV collected by the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb -1 is presented. Events are selected if they contain a single lepton (electron or muon) or an opposite-sign lepton pair, in association with multiple jets. The events are categorised according to the number of jets and how likely these are to contain b-hadrons. A multivariate technique is then used to discriminate between signal and background events. The measured four-top-quark production cross section is found to be 26$^{+17}_{-15}$ fb, with a corresponding observed (expected) significance of 1.9 (1.0) standard deviations over the background-only hypothesis. The result is combined with the previous measurement performed by the ATLAS Collaboration in the multilepton final state. The combined four-top-quark production cross section is measured to be 24$^{+7}_{-6}$ fb, with a corresponding observed (expected) signal significance of 4.7 (2.6) standard deviations over the background-only predictions. It is consistent within 2.0 standard deviations with the Standard Model expectation of 12.0 ± 2.4 fb.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Molecular Vibration Induced Plasmon Decay

Noble metal nanoparticles, when interacting with an external electric field, give rise to a phenomenon called surface plasmon resonance characterized by collective valence electron oscillations, and because of this unique feature these systems are employed for a large and heterogeneous number of applications. To improve their performance, it is necessary to develop a deep knowledge of the main factors affecting the plasmon lifetime. In order to answer this question, in this work a linear silver chain is investigated as a simplified model for silver nanorods. Through a non-adiabatic molecular dynamics approach the role of nuclear dynamics on transverse plasmon lifetime is investigated. A strong dependence of plasmon dynamics on the specific nature of nuclear motions is found: nuclear motions along the chain do not affect the transverse plasmon lifetime while motions causing a deviation from linearity of the wire have an important impact on the plasmon dynamics causing its decay. As the vibrational energy increases, the decay becomes faster because of an accelerated loss of symmetry and shows a weak Landau-like mechanism. The unveiled molecular nature of the plasmon decay on a linear wire can be representative of possible decay mechanisms taking place in larger systems. Finally, these results improve the knowledge of plasmon dynamics, and can be helpful for an efficient design of more performing materials.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Role of Bottlebrush Additives on the Structure of Block Copolymers in the Bulk and Thin Films

Blending block copolymers (BCP) with additives is a useful approach for controlling BCP morphology and properties. In athermal systems, blends of BCPs with polymer additives having very high molecular (M n ) mass generally result in macrophase separation. Bottlebrush polymers, which consist of a linear backbone and grafted side chains, present an interesting alternative where the overall M n of the system can be very large but the low M n side chains may drive miscibility with the BCP. Here, in this study, a bottlebrush with a polynorbornene backbone and polystyrene (PS) side chains is blended with PS-b-poly(methyl methacrylate) (PS-b-PMMA) of varying M n , and the resulting morphologies are examined in both the bulk and thin films. Two different M n of PS-b-PMMA were used in the bulk study, and the analysis of small-angle X-ray scattering data shows that the blends were miscible and lamellar at all concentrations. This deviates from reference series of both low and high M n linear polymer additives, which either showed morphological transitions from lamellae to cylinders (low M n ) or were immiscible at all mass fractions studied (high M n ). The relative molecular mass of the side chain (N SC ) and the corresponding component in the BCP (N A ) dictate the distribution of the bottlebrush throughout the BCP, analogous to BCP/linear blends or grafted nanoparticles in a homopolymer matrix. The studies on thin films show a thickness dependence for bottlebrush mass fractions at or above 0.17, a behavior which may be driven by conformational changes of the bottlebrush upon confinement.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

The Ages of the Thin Disk, Thick Disk, and the Halo from Nearby White Dwarfs

We present a detailed analysis of the white dwarf luminosity functions derived from the local 40 pc sample and the deep proper motion catalog of Munn et al. Many previous studies have ignored the contribution of thick disk white dwarfs to the Galactic disk luminosity function, which results in an erroneous age measurement. We demonstrate that the ratio of thick/thin disk white dwarfs is roughly 20% in the local sample. Simultaneously fitting for both disk components, we derive ages of 6.8–7.0 Gyr for the thin disk and 8.7 ± 0.1 Gyr for the thick disk from the local 40 pc sample. Similarly, we derive ages of 7.4–8.2 Gyr for the thin disk and 9.5–9.9 Gyr for the thick disk from the deep proper motion catalog, which shows no evidence of a deviation from a constant star formation rate in the past 2.5 Gyr. We constrain the time difference between the onset of star formation in the thin disk and the thick disk to be 1.6{sub −0.4}{sup +0.3} Gyr. The faint end of the luminosity function for the halo white dwarfs is less constrained, resulting in an age estimate of 12.5{sub −3.4}{sup +1.4} Gyr for the Galactic inner halo. This is the first time that ages for all three major components of the Galaxy have been obtained from a sample of field white dwarfs that is large enough to contain significant numbers of disk and halo objects. The resultant ages agree reasonably well with the age estimates for the oldest open and globular clusters.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Evaluation of observed and modelled aerosol lifetimes using radioactive tracers of opportunity and an ensemble of 19 global models

Aerosols have important impacts on air quality and climate, but the processes affecting their removal from the atmosphere are not fully understood and are poorly constrained by observations. This makes modelled aerosol lifetimes uncertain. In this study, we make use of an observational constraint on aerosol lifetimes provided by radionuclide measurements and investigate the causes of differences within a set of global models. During the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear power plant accident of March 2011, the radioactive isotopes cesium-137 ( 137 Cs) and xenon-133 ( 133 Xe) were released in large quantities. Cesium attached to particles in the ambient air, approximately according to their available aerosol surface area. 137 Cs size distribution measurements taken close to the power plant suggested that accumulation-mode (AM) sulfate aerosols were the main carriers of cesium. Hence, 137 Cs can be used as a proxy tracer for the AM sulfate aerosol's fate in the atmosphere. In contrast, the noble gas 133 Xe behaves almost like a passive transport tracer. Global surface measurements of the two radioactive isotopes taken over several months after the release allow the derivation of a lifetime of the carrier aerosol. We compare this to the lifetimes simulated by 19 different atmospheric transport models initialized with identical emissions of 137 Cs that were assigned to an aerosol tracer with each model's default properties of AM sulfate, and 133 Xe emissions that were assigned to a passive tracer. We investigate to what extent the modelled sulfate tracer can reproduce the measurements, especially with respect to the observed loss of aerosol mass with time. Modelled 137 Cs and 133 Xe concentrations sampled at the same location and times as station measurements allow a direct comparison between measured and modelled aerosol lifetime. The e-folding lifetime τ e , calculated from station measurement data taken between 2 and 9 weeks after the start of the emissions, is 14.3 days (95 % confidence interval 13.1–15.7 days). The equivalent modelled τ e lifetimes have a large spread, varying between 4.8 and 26.7 days with a model median of 9.4 ± 2.3 days, indicating too fast a removal in most models. Because sufficient measurement data were only available from about 2 weeks after the release, the estimated lifetimes apply to aerosols that have undergone long-range transport, i.e. not for freshly emitted aerosol. However, modelled instantaneous lifetimes show that the initial removal in the first 2 weeks was quicker (lifetimes between 1 and 5 days) due to the emissions occurring at low altitudes and co-location of the fresh plume with strong precipitation. Deviations between measured and modelled aerosol lifetimes are largest for the northernmost stations and at later time periods, suggesting that models do not transport enough of the aerosol towards the Arctic. The models underestimate passive tracer ( 133 Xe) concentrations in the Arctic as well but to a smaller extent than for the aerosol ( 137 Cs) tracer. As a result, this indicates that in addition to too fast an aerosol removal in the models, errors in simulated atmospheric transport towards the Arctic in most models also contribute to the underestimation of the Arctic aerosol concentrations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Multi-century dynamics of the climate and carbon cycle under both high and net negative emissions scenarios

Abstract. Future climate projections from Earth system models (ESMs) typically focus on the timescale of this century. We use a set of five ESMs and one Earth system model of intermediate complexity (EMIC) to explore the dynamics of the Earth's climate and carbon cycles under contrasting emissions trajectories beyond this century to the year 2300. The trajectories include a very-high-emissions, unmitigated fossil-fuel-driven scenario, as well as a mitigation scenario that diverges from the first scenario after 2040 and features an “overshoot”, followed by a decrease in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by means of large net negative CO2 emissions. In both scenarios and for all models considered here, the terrestrial system switches from being a net sink to either a neutral state or a net source of carbon, though for different reasons and centered in different geographic regions, depending on both the model and the scenario. The ocean carbon system remains a sink, albeit weakened by carbon cycle feedbacks, in all models under the high-emissions scenario and switches from sink to source in the overshoot scenario. The global mean temperature anomaly is generally proportional to cumulative carbon emissions, with a deviation from proportionality in the overshoot scenario that is governed by the zero emissions commitment. Additionally, 23rd century warming continues after the cessation of carbon emissions in several models in the high-emissions scenario and in one model in the overshoot scenario. While ocean carbon cycle responses qualitatively agree in both globally integrated and zonal mean dynamics in both scenarios, the land models qualitatively disagree in zonal mean dynamics, in the relative roles of vegetation and soil in driving C fluxes, in the response of the sink to CO2, and in the timing of the sink–source transition, particularly in the high-emissions scenario. The lack of agreement among land models on the mechanisms and geographic patterns of carbon cycle feedbacks, alongside the potential for lagged physical climate dynamics to cause warming long after CO2 concentrations have stabilized, points to the possibility of surprises in the climate system beyond the 21st century time horizon, even under relatively mitigated global warming scenarios, which should be taken into consideration when setting global climate policy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗