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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 1,783 records · Page 99
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1996

Surface Turbulent Fluxes Over Pack Ice Inferred from TOVS Observations

A one-dimensional, atmospheric boundary layer model is coupled to a thermodynamic ice model to estimate the surface turbulent fluxes over thick sea ice. The principal forcing parameters in this time-dependent model are the air temperature, humidity, and wind speed at a specified level (either at 2 m or at 850 mb) and the downwelling surface radiative fluxes. The free parameters. are the air temperature, humidity, and wind speed profiles below the specified level, the surface skin temperature, the ice temperature profile, and the surface turbulent fluxes. The goal is to determine how well we can estimate the turbulent surface heat and momentum fluxes using forcing parameters from atmospheric temperatures and radiative fluxes retrieved from the TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) data. Meteorological observations from the Lead Experiment (LeadEx, April 1992) ice camp are used to validate turbulent fluxes computed with the surface observations and the results are used to compare with estimates based on radio-sonde observations or with estimates based on TOVS data. We find that the TOVS-based estimates of the stress are significantly more accurate than those found with a constant geostrophic drag coefficient, with a root-mean-square error about half as large. This improvement is due to stratification effects included in the boundary layer model. The errors in the sensible heat flux estimates, however, are large compared to the small mean values observed during the field experiment.

Lindsay, R. W.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Parameter and Structure Inference for Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x = f(x) + xi(t), where f() is the potential function for the system, and xi is the excitation noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications.

Morris, Robin D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

popclass

popclass is a lightweight python package that allows fast, probabilistic classification of the lens of a microlensing event given the event's posterior distribution and a model of the Galaxy. popclass provides the bridge between Galactic simulation and lens classification, an interface to common Bayesian inference libraries, and the ability for users to flexibly specify their own Galactic model and classification parameters.

Mcgill, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of Limited Degree of Freedom Drag Coefficients on a Floating Offshore Wind Turbine Simulation

The worldwide effort to design and commission floating offshore wind turbines (FOWT) is motivating the need for reliable numerical models that adequately represent their physical behavior under realistic sea states. However, properly representing the hydrodynamic quadratic damping for FOWT remains uncertain, because of its dependency on the choice of drag coefficients (dimensionless or not). It is hypothesized that the limited degree of freedom (DoF) drag coefficient formulation that uses only translational drag coefficients causes mischaracterization of the rotational DoF drag, leading to underestimation of FOWT global loads, such as tower base fore-aft shear. To address these hydrodynamic modeling uncertainties, different quadratic drag models implemented in the open-source mid-fidelity simulation tool, OpenFAST, were investigated and compared with the experimental data from the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continued, with Correlation (OC5) project. The tower base fore-aft shear and up-wave mooring line tension were compared under an irregular wave loading condition to demonstrate the effects of the different damping models. Two types of hydrodynamic quadratic drag formulations were considered: (1) member-based dimensionless drag coefficients applied only at the translational DoF (namely limited-DoF drag model) and (2) quadratic drag matrix model (in dimensional form). Based on the results, the former consistently underestimated the 95th percentile peak loads and spectral responses when compared to the OC5 experimental data. In contrast, the drag matrix models reduced errors in estimates of the tower base shear peak load by 7–10% compared to the limited-DoF drag model. The underestimation in the tower base fore-aft shear was thus inferred be related to mischaracterization of the rotational pitch drag and the heave motion/drag by the limited-DoF model.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS1989

Infrared Emission from Comets

A brief discussion of the infrared observations from 4 to 20 micrometers of seven comets is presented. The observed infrared emission from comets depends primarily on their heliocentric distance. A model based on grain populations composed of a mixture of silicate and amorphous carbon particles in the mass ratio of about 40 to 1, with a power-law size distribution similar to that inferred for comet Halley, is applied to the observations. The model provides a good match to the observed heliocentric variation of both the 10 micrometers feature and the overall thermal emission from comets West and Halley. Matches to the observations of comet IRAS-Araki-Alcock and the antitail of comet Kohoutek require slightly larger grains. While the model does not match the exact profile and position of the 3.4 micrometers feature discovered in comet Halley, it does produce a qualitative fit to the observed variation of the feature's strength as a function of heliocentric distance. The calculations predict that the continuum under the 3.4 micrometers feature is due primarily to thermal emission from the comet dust when the comet is close to the Sun and to scattered solar radiation at large heliocentric distances, as is observed. A brief discussion of the determination of cometary grain temperatures from the observed infrared emission is presented. It is found that the observed shape of the emission curve from about 4 to 8 micrometers provides the best spectral region for estimating the cometary grain temperature distribution.

Swamy, K. S. Krishna↗
NASA NTRS2003

Lessons Learned from using a Livingstone Model to Diagnose a Main Propulsion System

NASA researchers have demonstrated that qualitative, model-based reasoning can be used for fault detection in a Main Propulsion System (MPS), a complex, continuous system. At the heart of this diagnostic system is Livingstone, a discrete, propositional logic-based inference engine. Livingstone comprises a language for specifying a discrete model of the system and a set of algorithms that use the model to track the system's state. Livingstone uses the model to test assumptions about the state of a component - observations from the system are compared with values predicted by the model. The intent of this paper is to summarize some advantages of Livingstone seen through our modeling experience: for instance, flexibility in modeling, speed and maturity. We also describe some shortcomings we perceived in the implementation of Livingstone, such as modeling continuous dynamics and handling of transients. We list some upcoming enhancements to the next version of Livingstone that may resolve some of the current limitations.

Sweet, Adam↗
DOE OSTI2020

Measurement and modeling of the radio frequency sheath impedance in a large magnetized plasma

The DC and RF properties of radio frequency (RF) driven sheaths were studied in the Large Plasma Device (LAPD) at the University of California, Los Angeles. The experiments diagnosed RF sheaths on field lines connected to a grounded plate at one end and an ion cyclotron range of frequencies (ICRF) antenna at the other end. The experimental setup permitted measurement of the RF sheath impedance at the plate as a function of DC sheath voltage, with the latter controlled by varying the RF current applied to the antenna. Here, the DC current-voltage characteristics of these sheaths and the RF sheath impedance measurements were compared with modeling. Hot electrons, present in the LAPD plasma, were inferred to contribute significantly to both the DC and RF currents and hence the RF impedance. It was postulated that at very low power hot electrons could not access the region of the plasma subject to RF waves, resulting in an increased RF impedance. Within some experimental limitations and significant assumptions, an RF sheath impedance model was verified by the experimental data.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1985

The location of the subsolar bow shock of Venus - Implications for the obstacle shape

The rise in periapsis altitude with time has allowed the Pioneer Venus spacecraft to begin probing the subsolar Venus bow shock. This has allowed the altitude of the subsolar bow shock to be determined by in situ observations for the first time. The observed altitude of 2280 km at the nose together with the previously determined terminator altitude can be used to infer the shape of the obstacle using the gasdynamic model of the solar wind interaction with Venus. When this shape is compared to the measured locations of the Venus ionopause (defined as the point where the magnetosheath magnetic field pressure and ionospheric thermal pressures are equal), it is found that the observed ionopause position is too low to qualify as the obstacle. It is inferred that a layer of the mass loaded plasma in the magnetosheath forms the magnetic barrier.

Russell, C. T.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Gaussian statistics of the cosmic microwave background: Correlation of temperature extrema in the COBE DMR two-year sky maps

We use the two-point correlation function of the extrema points (peaks and valleys) in the Cosmic Background Explorer (COBE) Differential Microwave Radiometers (DMR) 2 year sky maps as a test for non-Gaussian temperature distribution in the cosmic microwave background anisotropy. A maximum-likelihood analysis compares the DMR data to n = 1 toy models whose random-phase spherical harmonic components a(sub lm) are drawn from either Gaussian, chi-square, or log-normal parent populations. The likelihood of the 53 GHz (A+B)/2 data is greatest for the exact Gaussian model. There is less than 10% chance that the non-Gaussian models tested describe the DMR data, limited primarily by type II errors in the statistical inference. The extrema correlation function is a stronger test for this class of non-Gaussian models than topological statistics such as the genus.

Kogut, A.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Using Satellite Data to Identify the Methane Emission Controls of South Sudan's Wetlands

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) provides observations of atmospheric methane (CH4) at an unprecedented combination of high spatial resolution and daily global coverage. Hu et al. (2018) reported unexpectedly large methane enhancements over South Sudan in these observations. Here we assess methane emissions from the wetlands of South Sudan using 2 years (December 2017–November 2019) of TROPOMI total column methane observations. We estimate annual wetland emissions of 7.4 ± 3.2 Tg yr−1, which agrees with the multiyear GOSAT inversions of Lunt et al. (2019) but is an order of magnitude larger than estimates from wetland process models. This disagreement may be explained by the underestimation (by up to 4 times) of inundation extent by the hydrological schemes used in those models. We investigate the seasonal cycle of the emissions and find the lowest emissions during the June–August season when the process models show the largest emissions. Using satellite-altimetry-based river water height measurements, we infer that this seasonal mismatch is likely due to a seasonal mismatch in inundation extent. In models, inundation extent is controlled by regional precipitation scaled to static wetland extent maps, whereas the actual inundation extent is driven by water inflow from rivers like the White Nile and the Sobat. We find the lowest emissions in the highest precipitation and lowest temperature season (June–August, JJA) when models estimate large emissions. In general, our emission estimates show better agreement in terms of both seasonal cycle and annual mean with model estimates that use a stronger temperature dependence. This suggests that temperature might be a stronger control for the South Sudan wetlands emissions than currently assumed by models. Our findings demonstrate the use of satellite instruments for quantifying emissions from inaccessible and uncertain tropical wetlands, providing clues for the improvement of process models and thereby improving our understanding of the currently uncertain contribution of wetlands to the global methane budget.

methane emission↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mapping Stellar Surfaces. II. An Interpretable Gaussian Process Model for Light Curves

The use of Gaussian processes (GPs) as models for astronomical time series data sets has recently become almost ubiquitous, given their ease of use and flexibility. In particular, GPs excel at marginalization over the stellar signal when the variability due to starspots is treated as a nuisance, as in exoplanet transit modeling. However, these effective models are less useful in cases where the starspot signal is of primary interest, since it is not obvious how the parameters of the GP relate to physical parameters like the spot size, contrast, and latitudinal distribution. Instead, it is common practice to explicitly model the effect of individual starspots on the light curve and attempt to infer their properties via optimization or posterior inference. Unfortunately, this process is ill-posed and often computationally intractable when applied to stars with more than a few spots and/or to ensembles of many stars. Here we derive a closed-form expression for a GP that describes the light curve of a rotating, evolving stellar surface conditioned on a given distribution of starspot sizes, contrasts, and latitudes. We demonstrate that this model is correctly calibrated, allowing one to robustly infer physical parameters of interest from one or more light curves, including the typical spot radii and latitudes. Our GP has far-ranging implications for understanding the variability and magnetic activity of stars from light curves and radial velocity measurements, as well as for modeling correlated noise in exoplanet searches. Our implementation is efficient, user-friendly, and open-source, available in the package starry-process.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2022

Using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework to calibrate the runoff-generation scheme in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1

Abstract. Runoff is a critical component of the terrestrial water cycle, and Earth system models (ESMs) are essential tools to study its spatiotemporal variability. Runoff schemes in ESMs typically include many parameters so that model calibration is necessary to improve the accuracy of simulated runoff. However, runoff calibration at a global scale is challenging because of the high computational cost and the lack of reliable observational datasets. In this study, we calibrated 11 runoff relevant parameters in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Land Model (ELM) using a surrogate-assisted Bayesian framework. First, the polynomial chaos expansion machinery with Bayesian compressed sensing is used to construct computationally inexpensive surrogate models for ELM-simulated runoff at 0.5∘ × 0.5∘ for 1991–2010. The error metric between the ELM simulations and the benchmark data is selected to construct the surrogates, which facilitates efficient calibration and avoids the more conventional, but challenging, construction of high-dimensional surrogates for the ELM simulated runoff. Second, the Sobol' index sensitivity analysis is performed using the surrogate models to identify the most sensitive parameters, and our results show that, in most regions, ELM-simulated runoff is strongly sensitive to 3 of the 11 uncertain parameters. Third, a Bayesian method is used to infer the optimal values of the most sensitive parameters using an observation-based global runoff dataset as the benchmark. Our results show that model performance is significantly improved with the inferred parameter values. Although the parametric uncertainty of simulated runoff is reduced after the parameter inference, it remains comparable to the multimodel ensemble uncertainty represented by the global hydrological models in ISMIP2a. Additionally, the annual global runoff trend during the simulation period is not well constrained by the inferred parameter values, suggesting the importance of including parametric uncertainty in future runoff projections.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evidence and modeling of turbulence bifurcation in L-mode confinement transitions on Alcator C-Mod

Analysis and modeling of rotation reversal hysteresis experiments show that a single turbulent bifurcation is responsible for the Linear to Saturated Ohmic Confinement (LOC/SOC) transition and concomitant intrinsic rotation reversal on Alcator C-Mod. Plasmas on either side of the reversal exhibit different toroidal rotation profiles and therefore different turbulence characteristics despite the profiles of density and temperature, which are indistinguishable within measurement uncertainty. Elements of this bifurcation are also shown to persist for auxiliary heated L-modes. The deactivation of subdominant (in the linear growth rate and contribution to heat transport) ion temperature gradient and trapped electron mode instabilities is identified as the only possible change in turbulence within a reduced quasilinear transport model across the reversal, which is consistent with the measured profiles and inferred heat and particle fluxes. Experimental constraints on a possible change from strong to weak turbulence, outside the description of the quasilinear model, are also discussed. These results indicate an explanation for the LOC/SOC transition that provides a mechanism for the hysteresis through the dynamics of subdominant modes and changes in their relative populations and does not involve a change in the most linearly unstable ion-scale drift-wave instability.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS2019

Constraining the Metallicities, Ages, Star Formation Histories, and Ionizing Continua of Extragalactic Massive Star Populations

We infer the properties of massive star populations using the far-ultraviolet stellar continua of 61 star-forming galaxies: 42 at low redshift observed with the Hubble Space Telescope and 19 at z ~ 2 from the MegaSaura sample. We fit each stellar continuum with a linear combination of up to 50 single-age and single-metallicity starburst99 models. From these fits, we derive light-weighted ages and metallicities, which agree with stellar wind and photospheric spectral features, and infer the spectral shapes and strengths of the ionizing continua. Inferred light-weighted stellar metallicities span 0.05–1.5 Z(sub ⊙) and are similar to the measured nebular metallicities. We quantify the ionizing continua using the ratio of the ionizing flux at 900 Å to the non-ionizing flux at 1500 Å and demonstrate the evolution of this ratio with stellar age and metallicity using theoretical single-burst models. These single-burst models only match the inferred ionizing continua of half of the sample, while the other half are described by a mixture of stellar ages. Mixed-age populations produce stronger and harder ionizing spectra than continuous star formation histories, but, contrary to previous studies that assume constant star formation, have similar stellar and nebular metallicities. Stellar population age and metallicity affect the far-UV continua in different and distinguishable ways; assuming a constant star formation history diminishes the diagnostic power. Finally, we provide simple prescriptions to determine the ionizing photon production efficiency (ξ(sub ion)) from the stellar population properties. The ξ(sub ion) inferred from the observed star-forming galaxies has a range of log(ξ(sub ion)) = 24.4–25.7 Hz erg(exp −1) that depends on the stellar population age, metallicity, star formation history, and contributions from binary star evolution. These stellar population properties must be observationally determined to accurately determine the number of ionizing photons generated by massive stars.

Chisholm, J.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Early retirement of power plants in climate mitigation scenarios

International efforts to avoid dangerous climate change aim for large and rapid reductions of fossil fuel CO 2 emissions worldwide, including nearly complete decarbonization of the electric power sector. However, achieving such rapid reductions may depend on early retirement of coal- and natural gas-fired power plants. Here, we analyze future fossil fuel electricity demand in 171 energy-emissions scenarios from Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs), evaluating the implicit retirements and/or reduced operation of generating infrastructure. Although IAMs calculate retirements endogenously, the structure and methods of each model differ; we use a standard approach to infer retirements in outputs from all six major IAMs and—unlike the IAMs themselves—we begin with the age distribution and region-specific operating capacities of the existing power fleet. We find that coal-fired power plants in scenarios consistent with international climate targets (i.e. keeping global warming well-below 2 °C or 1.5 °C) retire one to three decades earlier than historically has been the case. If plants are built to meet projected fossil electricity demand and instead allowed to operate at the level and over the lifetimes they have historically, the roughly 200 Gt CO 2 of additional emissions this century would be incompatible with keeping global warming well-below 2 °C. Thus, ambitious climate mitigation scenarios entail drastic, and perhaps un-appreciated, changes in the operating and/or retirement schedules of power infrastructure.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advanced data analysis in inertial confinement fusion and high energy density physics

Bayesian analysis enables flexible and rigorous definition of statistical model assumptions with well-characterized propagation of uncertainties and resulting inferences for single-shot, repeated, or even cross-platform data. This approach has a strong history of application to a variety of problems in physical sciences ranging from inference of particle mass from multi-source high-energy particle data to analysis of black-hole characteristics from gravitational wave observations. The recent adoption of Bayesian statistics for analysis and design of high-energy density physics (HEDP) and inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments has provided invaluable gains in expert understanding and experiment performance. In this Review, we discuss the basic theory and practical application of the Bayesian statistics framework. We highlight a variety of studies from the HEDP and ICF literature, demonstrating the power of this technique. Due to the computational complexity of multi-physics models needed to analyze HEDP and ICF experiments, Bayesian inference is often not computationally tractable. Two sections are devoted to a review of statistical approximations, efficient inference algorithms, and data-driven methods, such as deep-learning and dimensionality reduction, which play a significant role in enabling use of the Bayesian framework. We provide additional discussion of various applications of Bayesian and machine learning methods that appear to be sparse in the HEDP and ICF literature constituting possible next steps for the community. We conclude by highlighting community needs, the resolution of which will improve trust in data-driven methods that have proven critical for accelerating the design and discovery cycle in many application areas.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Smokescreen: A Python package for data vector blinding and encryption in cosmological analyses

Smokescreen is an open-source Python library for data-vector concealment (blinding) in cosmological analyses. Data-vector blinding works by applying cosmology-dependent shifts to the observed data vector, moving it away from the true cosmological signal without affecting its statistical properties, so that analysts cannot infer the true result until the analysis is frozen and the blinding is lifted. The package computes these shifts using Firecrown likelihoods applied to data vectors stored in the SACC format, ensuring that the theoretical model used for blinding is identical to that used for inference whilst remaining agnostic to the specific observable being blinded. To prevent accidental unblinding, the original SACC file, containing the true cosmology, is encrypted. Although developed for the Vera C. Rubin Observatory Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST), Smokescreen is applicable to any experiment using Firecrown likelihoods and the SACC data format.

Loureiro, Arthur [Stockholm U., OKC; Imperial Coll↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Modeled Seasonal Cycles of Surface N 2 O Fluxes and Atmospheric N 2 O

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a greenhouse gas and stratospheric ozone-depleting substance with large and growing anthropogenic emissions. Previous studies identified the influx of N 2 O-depleted air from the stratosphere to partly cause the seasonality in tropospheric N 2 O (aN 2 O), but other contributions remain unclear. Here, we combine surface fluxes from eight land and four ocean models from phase 2 of the Nitrogen/N 2 O Model Intercomparison Project with tropospheric transport modeling to simulate aN 2 O at eight remote air sampling sites for modern and pre-industrial periods. Models show general agreement on the seasonal phasing of zonal-average N 2 O fluxes for most sites, but seasonal peak-to-peak amplitudes differ several-fold across models. The modeled seasonal amplitude of surface aN 2 O ranges from 0.25 to 0.80 ppb (interquartile ranges 21%–52% of median) for land, 0.14–0.25 ppb (17%–68%) for ocean, and 0.28–0.77 ppb (23%–52%) for combined flux contributions. The observed seasonal amplitude ranges from 0.34 to 1.08 ppb for these sites. The stratospheric contributions to aN 2 O, inferred by the difference between the surface-troposphere model and observations, show 16%–126% larger amplitudes and minima delayed by ~1 month compared to Northern Hemisphere site observations. Land fluxes and their seasonal amplitude have increased since the pre-industrial era and are projected to grow further under anthropogenic activities. Our results demonstrate the increasing importance of land fluxes for aN 2 O seasonality. Considering the large model spread, in situ aN 2 O observations and atmospheric transport-chemistry models will provide opportunities for constraining terrestrial and oceanic biosphere models, critical for projecting carbon-nitrogen cycles under ongoing global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗