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DOE OSTI2018

Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 /kW and 30 /kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. As an example, the unit price of a 5 MW standard design turbine could be 150 /W cheaper than the custom design. Sensitivity analysis indicated that these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup. In addition to manufacturing cost savings, there is a delivery time saving up to 10 months, which could have a positive effect to construction financing operation time. Another advantage of these standard turbines is their adaptability to different geothermal systems by operating at off-design conditions. We also modeled off-design turbine efficiencies within the commercially-favorable operating range of a standard ORC compared to custom-designed ORC equipment. Than we used these performance calculations and power output capacities in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of plant operations and financing, thereby creating representative techno economic models of a total geothermal power plant. I this scope we used NREL's System Advisor model (SAM) and performed DCF analysis of standard and custom design turbines using results from IPSEpro over range of temperatures of interest. In this scope 63 different off-design cases were analyzed. This helped us to answer the question; 'Can today's capital cost savings compensate the future revenue losses due to lower electricity generation?' The results showed that, the net capital cost savings for the modeled 5 MW case study may reach up to plus 1,298,672. Also, the difference between NPV of standard design and custom design turbine could reach up to 733,940. To sum up, when all the things mentioned above are taken into consideration, it can be said that, the standard turbines are competitive over a wide range of temperatures and flow rates and the give positive NPV differences for certain cases near their design point.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1990

Optimal design of control systems for prevention of aircraft flight departure

Control system design for general nonlinear flight dynamic models is considered through numerical simulation. The design is accomplished through a numerical optimizer coupled with analysis of flight dynamic equations. In the analysis, the general nonlinear flight dynamic equations with nonlinear aerodynamics are numerically integrated; and the dynamic characteristics needed in the optimization process are then identified from the dynamic response. To assure a reasonable solution, the initial input values of the design variables are estimated through a sensitivity analysis. To demonstrate the method, the pitch departure prevention for an F-16 configuration is demonstrated.

Lan, C. Edward↗

DOE OSTI2018

2018 Research Highlight in Manufacturing: Global Value Chain and Manufacturing Analysis on Geothermal Power Plant Turbines

Currently, geothermal project developers customize the size of the power plant to fit the resource being developed. The turbine is designed and sized to optimize efficiency and resource utilization for electricity production; most often, other power plant components are then chosen to complement the turbine design. These custom turbine designs demand one-off manufacturing processes, which result in higher manufacturing setup costs, longer lead-times, and higher capital costs overall in comparison to larger-volume line manufacturing processes. In contrast, turbines produced in standard increments, manufactured in larger volumes, could result in lower costs per turbine. In this study, we developed a manufacturing cost model to identify requirements for equipment, facilities, raw materials, and labor. Then we used discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis to calculate the minimum sustainable price (MSP). We analyzed three different cases 1) 1 MWe geothermal ORC turboexpander 2) 5 MWe ORC turboexpander and 3) 20 MWe geothermal steam turbine, and calculated the cost of manufacturing the major components, such as the impellers/blades, shaft/rotor, nozzles, inlet guide lanes, disks, and casings. The results showed that MSP could highly vary between 893 $/kW and 30 $/kW based on turbine size, standardization and volume of manufacturing. The analysis also showed that the economy of scale applies both to the size of the turbine and the number manufactured in a single run. As an example, the unit price of a 5 MW standard design turbine could be 150 $/W cheaper than the custom design. Sensitivity analysis indicated that these savings come largely from reduced labor costs for design and engineering and manufacturing setup. In addition to manufacturing cost savings, there is a delivery time saving up to 10 months, which could have a positive effect to construction financing operation time. Another advantage of these standard turbines is their adaptability to different geothermal systems by operating at off-design conditions. We also modeled off-design turbine efficiencies within the commercially-favorable operating range of a standard ORC compared to custom-designed ORC equipment. Than we used these performance calculations and power output capacities in a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis of plant operations and financing, thereby creating representative techno economic models of a total geothermal power plant. I this scope we used NREL's System Advisor model (SAM) and performed DCF analysis of standard and custom design turbines using results from IPSEpro over range of temperatures of interest. In this scope 63 different off-design cases were analyzed. This helped us to answer the question; 'Can today`s capital cost savings compensate the future revenue losses due to lower electricity generation?' The results showed that, the net capital cost savings for the modeled 5 MW case study may reach up to +$1,298,672. Also, the difference between NPV of standard design and custom design turbine could reach up to +$733,940. To sum up, when all the things mentioned above are taken into consideration, it can be said that, the standard turbines are competitive over a wide range of temperatures and flow rates and the give positive NPV differences for certain cases near their design point.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2015

Advanced Burner Reactor with Breed-and-Burn Thorium Blankets for Improved Economics and Resource Utilization

This study assesses the feasibility of designing Seed and Blanket (S&B) Sodium-cooled Fast Reactor (SFR) to generate a significant fraction of the core power from radial thorium fueled blankets that operate on the Breed-and-Burn (B&B) mode without exceeding the radiation damage constraint of presently verified cladding materials. The S&B core is designed to maximize the fraction of neutrons that radially leak from the seed (or “driver”) into the subcritical blanket and reduce neutron loss via axial leakage. The blanket in the S&B core makes beneficial use of the leaking neutrons for improved economics and resource utilization. A specific objective of this study is to maximize the fraction of core power that can be generated by the blanket without violating the thermal hydraulic and material constraints. Since the blanket fuel requires no reprocessing along with remote fuel fabrication, a larger fraction of power from the blanket will result in a smaller fuel recycling capacity and lower fuel cycle cost per unit of electricity generated. A unique synergism is found between a low conversion ratio (CR) seed and a B&B blanket fueled by thorium. Among several benefits, this synergism enables the very low leakage S&B cores to have small positive coolant voiding reactivity coefficient and large enough negative Doppler coefficient even when using inert matrix fuel for the seed. The benefits of this synergism are maximized when using an annular seed surrounded by an inner and outer thorium blankets. Among the high-performance S&B cores designed to benefit from this unique synergism are: (1) the ultra-long cycle core that features a cycle length of ~7 years; (2) the high-transmutation rate core where the seed fuel features a TRU CR of 0.0. Its TRU transmutation rate is comparable to that of the reference Advanced Burner Reactor (ABR) with CR of 0.5 and the thorium blanket can generate close to 60% of the core power; but requires only one sixth of the reprocessing and fabrication capacity per unit of core power. Nevertheless, these high-performance cores were designed to set upper bounds on the S&B core performance by using larger height and pressure drop than those of typical SFR design. A study was subsequently undertaken to quantify the tradeoff between S&B core design variables and the core performance. This study concludes that a viable S&B core can be designed without significant deviation from SFR core design practices. For example, the S&B core with 120cm active height will be comparable in volume, HM mass and specific power with the S-PRISM core and could fit within the S-PRISM reactor vessel. 43% of this core power will be generated by the once-through thorium blanket; the required capacity for reprocessing and remote fuel fabrication per unit of electricity generated will be approximately one fifth of that for a comparable ABR. The sodium void worth of this 120cm tall S&B core is significantly less positive than that of the reference ABR and the Doppler coefficient is only slightly smaller even though the seed uses a fertile-free fuel. The seed in the high transmutation core requires inert matrix fuel (TRU-40Zr) that has been successfully irradiated by the Fuel Cycle Research & Development program. An additional sensitivity analysis was later conducted to remove the bias introduced by the discrepancy between radiation damage constraints -- 200 DPA applied for S&B cores and fast fluence of 4x1023 n(>0.1MeV)/cm2 applied for ABR core design. Although the performance characteristics of the S&B cores are sensitive to the radiation damage constraint applied, the S&B cores offer very significant performance improvements relative to the conventional ABR core design when using identical constraint.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS1989

Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization, part 1

This three-part document contains a collection of technical papers presented at the Second NASA/Air Force Symposium on Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization, held September 28-30, 1988 in Hampton, Virginia. The topics covered include: helicopter design, aeroelastic tailoring, control of aeroelastic structures, dynamics and control of flexible structures, structural design, design of large engineering systems, application of artificial intelligence, shape optimization, software development and implementation, and sensitivity analysis.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization, part 2

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.↗

NASA NTRS1989

Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization, part 3

This three-part document contains a collection of technical papers presented at the Second NASA/Air Force Symposium on Recent Advances in Multidisciplinary Analysis and Optimization, held September 28-30, 1988 in Hampton, Virginia. The topics covered include: aircraft design, aeroelastic tailoring, control of aeroelastic structures, dynamics and control of flexible structures, structural design, design of large engineering systems, application of artificial intelligence, shape optimization, software development and implementation, and sensitivity analysis.

Barthelemy, Jean-Francois M.↗

NASA NTRS1990

Space system operations and support cost analysis using Markov chains

This paper evaluates the use of Markov chain process in probabilistic life cycle cost analysis and suggests further uses of the process as a design aid tool. A methodology is developed for estimating operations and support cost and expected life for reusable space transportation systems. Application of the methodology is demonstrated for the case of a hypothetical space transportation vehicle. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to explore the effects of uncertainty in key model inputs.

Unal, Resit↗

NASA NTRS2008

Sensitivity of Multiangle Imaging to the Optical and Microphysical Properties of Biomass Burning Aerosols

The treatment of biomass burning (BB) carbonaceous particles in the Multiangle Imaging SpectroRadiometer (MISR) Standard Aerosol Retrieval Algorithm is assessed, and algorithm refinements are suggested, based on a theoretical sensitivity analysis and comparisons with near-coincident AERONET measurements at representative BB sites. Over the natural ranges of BB aerosol microphysical and optical properties observed in past field campaigns, patterns of retrieved Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD), particle size, and single scattering albedo (SSA) are evaluated. On the basis of the theoretical analysis, assuming total column AOD of 0.2, over a dark, uniform surface, MISR can distinguish two to three groups in each of size and SSA, except when the assumed atmospheric particles are significantly absorbing (mid-visible SSA approx.0.84), or of medium sizes (mean radius approx.0.13 pin); sensitivity to absorbing, medium-large size particles increases considerably when the assumed column AOD is raised to 0.5. MISR Research Aerosol Retrievals confirm the theoretical results, based on coincident AERONET inversions under BB-dominated conditions. When BB is externally mixed with dust in the atmosphere, dust optical model and surface reflection uncertainties, along with spatial variability, contribute to differences between the Research Retrievals and AERONET. These results suggest specific refinements to the MISR Standard Aerosol Algorithm complement of component particles and mixtures. They also highlight the importance for satellite aerosol retrievals of surface reflectance characterization, with accuracies that can be difficult to achieve with coupled surface-aerosol algorithms in some higher AOD situations.

Chen, Wei-Ting↗

DOE OSTI2020

Economic impacts of feeding microalgae/wood blends to hydrothermal liquefaction and upgrading systems

Not Available

Zhu, Yunhua↗

DOE OSTI2026

Elastic-wave sensitivity-guided adaptive seismic survey design for cost-effective monitoring of geological carbon storage

Effective seismic monitoring is essential for verifying CO₂ containment, detecting potential leakage, and optimizing operational decisions in geologic carbon storage. Here, this study presents a time-adaptive, elastic-wave sensitivity-guided framework for designing cost-effective seismic monitoring layouts for tracking CO₂ plume migration. The method is based on elastic-wave sensitivity analysis, which quantifies how variations in subsurface properties impact seismic wavefields. Two complementary design strategies are developed: one based on selecting a fixed number of seismic sources (Method A), and the other based on selecting source–receiver pairs contributing to a fixed fraction of cumulative elastic-wave sensitivity energy (Method B). The optimization workflow to identify source–receiver configurations with the highest detection potential is demonstrated using a hypothetical GCS scenario at the Kimberlina site in California using simulations of elastic-wave sensitivity data at multiple post-injection timesteps. Results show that both strategies adapt to evolving plume geometries and wavefield sensitivities, with Method B offering broader spatial coverage and Method A ensuring simpler deployment. This framework enables site-specific, cost-effective, and risk-informed seismic survey designs, enhancing the ability to monitor CO₂ migration over time in evolving geological environments

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2019

Thermal Transport and Fracture Behavior of Sintered Fuel Pellets: Experimental Validation of NEAMS Tool MARMOT

The project targets at experimental validation of NEAMS tool MARMOT for predicting thermal transport and fuel fracture. The key components of the project include: (1) sintering UO 2 samples with well-controlled microstructures (grain size, pore, fission bubble, porosity and pore distribution either in intra- or inter-granular pores); (2) thermal conductivity measurements of these wellcharacterized polycrystalline samples; (3) indentation testing of sintered UO 2 with various grain size, porosity and stoichiometry to obtain fracture and crack propagation mechanisms (inter or intragranular fracture); and (4) validation and uncertainty quantification of the MARMOT thermal transport and fracture models. The high quality experimental data will be used to validate the predictions of MARMOT for thermal transport and fracture, using average data and local microstructure information. In this work, UO 2 fuels with controlled microstructure (grain size, pore size/structure and fuel chemistry) were successfully prepared by high energy ball milling of the hyper-stoichiometric UO 2+x powders purchased commercially, and consolidated by spark plasma sintering. Dense nano-sized UO 2 fuel pellets with controlled stoichiometry were sintered by SPS. The effects of different SPS sintering parameters on the pore size and distribution were investigated, and the correlation among the SPS parameter – microstructure control – stoichiometry/defect structure was established. To further control the pore structure and fuel chemistry, systematic thermal annealing of the sintered fuels with the controlled pore structure was performed in a reduced. The controlled microstructure and fuel chemistry enable the investigation of the separate effects of pore structure and fuel chemistry on thermal transport behavior. The mechanical properties of the sintered UO 2 fuels were tested by nanoindentation and microindentation testing at different temperatures. The fracture behavior of the sintered fuels as functions of grain structure and temperature was investigated. Nanocrystalline UO 2 display higher hardness than microcrystalline counterpart, consistent with the Hall-Petch strengthening mechanism. Greater Young’s modulus and fracture toughness are also identified for the nanocrystalline UO 2 , and hardness and Young’s modulus decrease with temperature, suggesting better ductility of oxide fuels at greater temperature at small length scale. Hyper-stoichiometric UO 2 specimen displays higher hardness and fracture toughness than stoichiometric UO 2 , due to the impediment of the crack propagation by the oxygen interstitial atoms. These results are useful in understanding the mechanical properties of the high burn-up structure (HBS) formed in nuclear fuels during reactor operation, and also provide critical experimental data as the input for the development and validation of the MARMOT fracture model of nuclear fuels. The thermal properties of the sintered UO 2 fuel pellets with controlled grain structure, fuel chemistry and pore structures are measured by laser flash and the impact of the microstructure characteristics on the thermal transport properties is elucidated. Through a close collaboration with the MARMOT team at Idaho National Laboratory, the thermal properties of the sintered oxide fuel pellets with controlled microstructures are measured experimentally, and modeled using the developed MARMOT thermal transport models for a joint effort of demonstrating high spatial resolution measurements at the microstructural level on as-fabricated nuclear fuels and materials and obtain critical experimental data for model validation and properties predictions. In this work, we also conducted sensitivity analysis and uncertainty quantification (UQ) on a mesoscale simulation that has been applied to understand the effective thermal conductivity of UO 2 reactor fuel using the MARMOT tool. We also conduced UQ on mechanistic macroscale models that have been developed to predict the effective thermal conductivity. The most sensitive parameter is the thermal conductivity of bulk UO 2 for the thermal conductivity models. In the future, the predicted simulation distributions need to be compared to experimental data for validation of the models.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2019

Contributions to local- and regional-scale formaldehyde concentrations

Reducing ambient formaldehyde concentrations is a complex task because formaldehyde is both a primary and a secondary air pollutant, with significant anthropogenic and biogenic sources of volatile organic compound (VOC) precursor emissions. This work uses adjoint sensitivity analysis in a chemical transport model to identify emission sources and chemical reactions that influence formaldehyde mixing ratios in the San Francisco Bay Area and within three urbanized sub-areas. For each of these receptors, the use of the adjoint technique allows for efficient calculation of the sensitivity of formaldehyde to emissions of NO x , formaldehyde, and VOC precursors occurring at any location and time. Formaldehyde mixing ratios are found to be generally higher in summer than in winter. The opposite seasonal trend is observed for the sensitivities of these mixing ratios to formaldehyde emissions. In other words, even though formaldehyde is higher in summer, reducing formaldehyde emissions has a greater impact in winter. In winter, 85%–90% of the sensitivity to emissions is attributed to direct formaldehyde emissions. In summer, this contribution is smaller and more variable, ranging from 27% to 75% among the receptor areas investigated in this study. Higher relative contributions of secondary formation versus direct emissions are associated with receptors located farther away from heavily urbanized and emission-rich areas. In particular, the relative contribution of biogenic VOC emissions (15%–43% in summer) is largest for these receptors. Ethene and other alkenes are the most influential anthropogenic precursors to secondary formaldehyde. Isoprene is the most influential biogenic precursor. Sensitivities of formaldehyde to NO x emissions are generally negative but relatively small in magnitude compared to sensitivities to VOC emissions. The magnitude of anthropogenic emissions of organic compounds other than formaldehyde is found to correlate reasonably well with their influence on population-weighted formaldehyde mixing ratios at the air-basin scale. This correlation does not hold for ambient formaldehyde in smaller urbanized sub-areas. The magnitude of biogenic emissions does not correlate with their influence in either case.

Bastien, Lucas A. J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploitation of a Validation Hierarchy for Modeling and Simulation

Across engineering there is an evolving need to increase reliance on physics-based simulation to develop, design and optimize engineering systems. This increased reliance on modeling and simulation has highlighted a growing need to transform the confidence that modeling and simulation analysts have in their results into credibility for systems engineers to design and field systems more quickly and with less physical testing. For isolated components of a complex system, where a single discipline may drive product design, this is less of a concern as the relationship is often straightforward and easy to explain. However, when these isolated components are integrated, and are expected to operate in a multi-disciplinary context in which safety critical systems are involved, new concepts and model assurance standards are required. In this paper we address this challenge by showing how a model validation hierarchy can be exploited to identify those model validation experiments that will contribute most to increasing confidence and credibility of modeling and simulation predictions. The approach that is adopted contains four main steps. The first step is the construction of a model validation hierarchy that links subsystems, assemblies, and components to a hierarchy of physical experiments that can be used support model validation. This hierarchy connects the concerns of systems engineers to those of the modeling and simulation analyst in a clear and logical way. The structure and content of this hierarchy is then used in a second step to establish which physical phenomena have the greatest impact on overall system performance metrics. A gap analysis technique, based upon modeling and simulation concerns, is then used to prioritize the important physical phenomenon. Unfortunately, a common outcome of such gap analyses is the identification of many important gaps and so, in the final step of our process, we advocate the use of a global sensitivity analysis as a means to complete the prioritization.

Verification and Validation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploitation of a Validation Hierarchy for Modeling and Simulation

Verification and Validation↗

NASA NTRS2026

Micromechanical Design of Carbon Nanotube Ribbon Reinforced Polymer Composite Materials

Lightweight materials are an important component of the design of aerospace structures. Carbon nanotube materials have been considered for this purpose due to the strength and stiffness of individual nanotubes, and the commercial availability of bulk formats such as fibers. These fibers can have a ribbon cross section which results in a different design space for their composites relative to traditional reinforcements which have a round cross section. This work applies brick-and-mortar micromechanical models and classical lamination theory with an inverse approach to investigate the design space of these composites. Using this approach, the influences of fiber geometry and axial and transverse mechanical properties are mapped. Finally, a sensitivity study is performed and the relative impacts of ±10% variations in the constituent material and geometric properties are ranked. Lamina axial moduli were found to range from a maximum of 3x to 1x minimum relative to a target quasi-isotropic laminate modulus depending on the anisotropy and shear modulus of the lamina. The fiber targets depended strongly on the fiber volume fraction in the lamina and the fiber axial modulus target was found to range from 4.8x to 3.2x the quasi-isotropic laminate target. The sensitivity analysis found that the largest driver of performance was the volume fraction, followed by the fiber axial modulus. While bio-based brick-and-mortar composites, such as nacre, can benefit from reinforcement aspect ratios above 10, for carbon nanotube ribbon (or carbon fiber)/polymer composites the sensitivity study indicated that the optimal cross-sectional aspect ratio was relatively smaller, potentially less than three.

Micromechanics↗

NASA NTRS1985

A detailed analysis of the erythropoietic control system in the human, squirrel, monkey, rat and mouse

The erythropoiesis modeling performed in support of the Body Fluid and Blood Volume Regulation tasks is described. The mathematical formulation of the species independent model, the solutions to the steady state and dynamic versions of the model, and the individual species specific models for the human, squirrel monkey, rat and mouse are outlined. A detailed sensitivity analysis of the species independent model response to parameter changes and how those responses change from species to species is presented. The species to species response to a series of simulated stresses directly related to blood volume regulation during space flight is analyzed.

Nordheim, A. W.↗

DOE OSTI2017

Improving Trigger Functions for Convective Parameterization Schemes Using GOAmazon Observations

Using observations from the Green Ocean Amazon (GOAmazon) field campaign, this study aims to improve trigger functions of convection schemes. Results show that the CAPE generation rate (dCAPE)-type triggers are the first tier and that the Bechtold and heated condensation framework (HCF) triggers are a distant second tier. The composite analysis reveals that the undilute dCAPE trigger underpredicts convection when there is bottom-heavy upward motion but overpredicts convection with low-level downward and upper-level upward motions. The empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis on vertical velocity shows that EOF1 (62.65%) exhibits upward motion throughout the troposphere and that EOF2 (28.05%) has lower-level upward motion and upper-level downward motion. Both of them have close relationships with precipitation, indicating the role of vertical velocity in triggering convection. The skill sensitivity analysis shows that the inclusion of 700-hPa upward motion significantly enhances the undilute dCAPE trigger. For the dilute dCAPE trigger, entrainment rate and dCAPE threshold are optimized to improve it. Opposite to dCAPE-type triggers, the Bechtold trigger overemphasizes the low-level vertical velocity and underpredicts the mature and decaying phases of long-lasting convection events. The HCF trigger overemphasizes the near-surface moist static energy and overlooks the vertical velocity. The performance of dCAPE-type triggers on various convective systems over the Amazon region is examined. The eastward-propagating systems are best represented, with only a few underpredictions in their decaying stages. The weak locally occurring systems and marginal phases of westward-propagating systems are easy to underpredict. The revised dCAPE-type triggers perform better on different convection systems and the diurnal cycle of convection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗