Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Uncertainty quantification”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 1,783 records · Page 99

TENDL: Complete Nuclear Data Library for Innovative Nuclear Science and Technology

The TENDL library is now established as one of the major nuclear data libraries in the world, striving for completeness and quality of nuclear data files for all isotopes, evaluation methods, processing and applied performance. To reach this status, some basic principles have been applied which sets it apart from other libraries: reproducible dedicated evaluations when differential data are available, through determination of nuclear models implemented in TALYS and their parameters, completeness (with or without experimental data), format and processing standardization, automation of production and reproducibility. In this paper, we will outline how such an approach has become a reality, and recall some of the past successes since the first TENDL release in 2008. Next, we will demonstrate the performance of the latest TENDL releases for different application fields, as well as new approaches for uncertainty quantification based on Bayesian inference methods and possible differential and integral adjustments. Also, current limitations of the library performances due to modelling and needs for new and more precise experimental data will be outlined.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

ENDF/B-VIII.1: Updated Nuclear Reaction Data Library for Science and Applications

The ENDF/B-VIII.1 library is the newest recommended evaluated nuclear data file by the Cross Section Evaluation Working Group (CSEWG) for use in nuclear science and technology applications, and incorporates advances made in the six years since the release of ENDF/B-VIII.0. Among key advances made are that the 239 Pu file was reevaluated by a joint international effort and that updated 16,18 O, 19 F, 28–30 Si, 50–54 Cr, 55 Mn, 54,56,57 Fe, 63,65 Cu, 139 La, 233,235,238 U, and 240,241 Pu neutron nuclear data from the IAEA coordinated INDEN collaboration were adopted. Over 60 neutron dosimetry cross sections were adopted from the IAEA's IRDFF-II library. In addition, the new library includes significant changes for 3 He, 6 Li, 9 Be, 51 V, 88 Sr, 103 Rh, 140,142 Ce, Dy, 181 Ta, Pt, 206–208 Pb, and 234,236 U neutron data, and new nuclear data for the photonuclear, charged-particle and atomic sublibraries. Numerous thermal neutron scattering kernels were reevaluated or provided for the very first time. On the covariance side, work was undertaken to introduce better uncertainty quantification standards and testing for nuclear data covariances. The significant effort to reevaluate important nuclides has reduced bias in the simulations of many integral experiments with particular progress noted for fluorine, copper, and stainless steel containing benchmarks. Data issues hindered the successful deployment of the previous ENDF/B-VIII.0 for commercial nuclear power applications in high burnup situations. These issues were addressed by improving the 238 U and 239,240,241 Pu evaluated data in the resonance region. The new library performance as a function of burnup is similar to the reference ENDF/B-VII.1 library.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

TransformerG2G: Adaptive time-stepping for learning temporal graph embeddings using transformers

Dynamic graph embedding has emerged as a very effective technique for addressing diverse temporal graph analytic tasks (i.e., link prediction, node classification, recommender systems, anomaly detection, and graph generation) in various applications. Such temporal graphs exhibit heterogeneous transient dynamics, varying time intervals, and highly evolving node features throughout their evolution. Hence, incorporating long-range dependencies from the historical graph context plays a crucial role in accurately learning their temporal dynamics. In this paper, we develop a graph embedding model with uncertainty quantification, TransformerG2G, by exploiting the advanced transformer encoder to first learn intermediate node representations from its current state (t) and previous context (over timestamps [t–1,t–l], l is the length of context). Moreover, we employ two projection layers to generate lower-dimensional multivariate Gaussian distributions as each node's latent embedding at timestamp t. We consider diverse benchmarks with varying levels of "novelty" as measured by the TEA (Temporal Edge Appearance) plots. Here, our experiments demonstrate that the proposed TransformerG2G model outperforms conventional multi-step methods and our prior work (DynG2G) in terms of both link prediction accuracy and computational efficiency, especially for high degree of novelty. Furthermore, the learned time-dependent attention weights across multiple graph snapshots reveal the development of an automatic adaptive time stepping enabled by the transformer. Importantly, by examining the attention weights, we can uncover temporal dependencies, identify influential elements, and gain insights into the complex interactions within the graph structure. For example, we identified a strong correlation between attention weights and node degree at the various stages of the graph topology evolution.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking: An overview of instruments, methods, data, and applications

Ultrafast radiographic imaging and tracking (U-RadIT) use state-of-the-art ionizing particle and light sources to experimentally study sub-nanosecond transients or dynamic processes in physics, chemistry, biology, geology, materials science and other fields. These processes are fundamental to modern technologies and applications, such as nuclear fusion energy, advanced manufacturing, communication, and green transportation, which often involve one mole or more atoms and elementary particles, and thus are challenging to compute by using the first principles of quantum physics or other forward models. One of the central problems in U-RadIT is to optimize information yield through, e.g. high-luminosity X-ray and particle sources, efficient imaging and tracking detectors, novel methods to collect data, and large-bandwidth online and offline data processing, regulated by the underlying physics, statistics, and computing power. We review and highlight recent progress in: (a.) Detectors such as high-speed complementary metal-oxide semiconductor (CMOS) cameras, hybrid pixelated array detectors integrated with Timepix4 and other application-specific integrated circuits (ASICs), and digital photon detectors; (b.) U-RadIT modalities such as dynamic phase contrast imaging, dynamic diffractive imaging, and four-dimensional (4D) particle tracking; (c.) U-RadIT data and algorithms such as neural networks and machine learning, and (d.) Applications in ultrafast dynamic material science using XFELs, synchrotrons and laser-driven sources. Hardware-centric approaches to U-RadIT optimization are constrained by detector material properties, low signal-to-noise ratio, high cost and long development cycles of critical hardware components such as ASICs. Interpretation of experimental data, including comparisons with forward models, is frequently hindered by sparse measurements, model and measurement uncertainties, and noise. Alternatively, U-RadIT make increasing use of data science and machine learning algorithms, including experimental implementations of compressed sensing. Machine learning and artificial intelligence approaches, refined by physics and materials information, may also contribute significantly to data interpretation, uncertainty quantification and U-RadIT optimization.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Application of regression, variance, and density based global sensitivity methods to integrated VERA-CS and BISON simulations [Application of regression, variance, and density based global sensitivity methods to integrated VERA-CS and BISON simulations]

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) and sensitivity analyses (SA) are performed for coupled simulations between VERA-CS, a coupled pin resolved neutron transport and subchannel thermal hydraulics code, and the fuel performance code BISON. The interface between VERA-CS and BISON is performed in a multiphysics environment known as the LOCA Toolkit for U.S. light water reactors (LOTUS) currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). A focus is placed on using a variety of SA measures, including two regression based (Pearson and Spearman), one variance based (Sobol indices), and three moment independent measures (Delta moment independent measures with L 1 , L 2 , and L ∞ norms). The problem under inspection is a single assembly depletion case for three fuel cycles. The figures of merit are the minimum departure from nucleate boiling ratio (MDNBR), maximum fuel centerline temperature (MFCT), and gap conductance at peak power (GCPP). SA results show MDNBR to be linear with consistent rankings throughout the fuel cycles. MFCT is linear, but with a change in rankings at the switch from open gap to closed gap models. GCPP is nonlinear at intermediate states that coincide with the onset of contact between fuel and cladding. Furthermore, these nonlinear states allow for the showcasing of higher order SA measures over first order methods.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

A framework for assessment of predictive capability maturity and its application in nuclear thermal hydraulics

Here this work presents a formalized and computerized framework for the assessment of decision regarding the adequacy of a simulation tool for a nuclear reactor application. The decision regarding a code’s adequacy for an application is dependent on the assessment of different attributes that govern verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification of the code. In this work, the focus is on code validation. Therefore, the framework is developed and illustrated from the perspective of decision regarding the validation assessment of a code. Code validation assessment is performed based on the validation test results, data applicability, and process quality assurance factors. The process quality assurance factors warrant the trustworthiness of the evidence and help in checking people and process compliance with respect to the standard requirements. The proposed framework is developed using an argument modeling technique called Goal Structuring Notation (GSN). Goal structuring notation facilitates structural knowledge representation, information abstraction, evidence incorporation, and provides a skeletal structure for quantitative maturity assessment. The decision schema for the development of the decision model is based on the Predictive Capability Maturity Model (PCMM) and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and formalized using Goal structuring notation. Each decision attribute is formulated as a claim, where the degree of validity of the claim (attribute’s assessment) is expressed using different maturity levels. The GSN representation of the decision model is transformed into a confidence network to provide evidence-based quantitative maturity assessment using the Bayesian network. A metric based on the expected utility of maturity levels, called expected distance metric, is proposed to measure the distance between target maturity and achieved maturity on a scale of zero to one. Expected distance metric helps in comparing the assessment of different attributes and identification of major areas of concern in terms of modeling capability, data needs, and quality of assessment process. The practical application of the framework is demonstrated by a case study on validation assessment of a thermal-hydraulic code for a challenge problem called Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Towards next-generation optical potentials for nuclear reactions and structure calculations

Optical-model potentials (OMPs) are critical ingredients for basic and applied nuclear physics. Present-day computational capabilities allow us to generate data-driven nucleon-nucleus OMPs that are non-local and exactly dispersive (as theoretically required to be), include statistically-sound uncertainty quantification, and are trained on both scattering and bound-state data from a wide area of the nuclear chart. Combined together, these features allow for significant improvement in fidelity and extrapolative power of the model. Here, we present preliminary work toward the development and training of such an OMP. The capability of the model to describe data at this first stage is encouraging.

Perrotta, Salvatore Simone [Lawrence Livermore Nat↗

Learning from crowds with variational Gaussian processes

Solving a supervised learning problem requires to label a training set. This task is traditionally performed by an expert, who provides a label for each sample. The proliferation of social web services (e.g., Amazon Mechanical Turk) has introduced an alternative crowdsourcing approach. Anybody with a computer can register in one of these services and label, either partially or completely, a dataset. The effort of labeling is then shared between a great number of annotators. However, this approach introduces scientifically challenging problems such as combining the unknown expertise of the annotators, handling disagreements on the annotated samples, or detecting the existence of spammer and adversarial annotators. All these problems require probabilistic sound solutions which go beyond the naive use of majority voting plus classical classification methods. In this work we introduce a new crowdsourcing model and inference procedure which trains a Gaussian Process classifier using the noisy labels provided by the annotators. Variational Bayes inference is used to estimate all unknowns. The proposed model can predict the class of new samples and assess the expertise of the involved annotators. Moreover, the Bayesian treatment allows for a solid uncertainty quantification. Since when predicting the class of a new sample we might have access to some annotations for it, we also show how our method can naturally incorporate this additional information. Furthermore, a comprehensive experimental section evaluates the proposed method with synthetic and real experiments, showing that it consistently outperforms other state-of-the-art crowdsourcing approaches.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Combustion machine learning: Principles, progress and prospects

Progress in combustion science and engineering has led to the generation of large amounts of data from large-scale simulations, high-resolution experiments, and sensors. This corpus of data offers enormous opportunities for extracting new knowledge and insights—if harnessed effectively. Machine learning (ML) techniques have demonstrated remarkable success in data analytics, thus offering a new paradigm for data-intense analyses and scientific investigations through combustion machine learning (CombML). While data-driven methods are utilized in various combustion areas, recent advances in algorithmic developments, the accessibility of open-source software libraries, the availability of computational resources, and the abundance of data have together rendered ML techniques ubiquitous in scientific analysis and engineering. This article examines ML techniques for applications in combustion science and engineering. Starting with a review of sources of data, data-driven techniques, and concepts, we examine supervised, unsupervised, and semi-supervised ML methods. Various combustion examples are considered to illustrate and to evaluate these methods. Next, we review past and recent applications of ML approaches to problems in combustion, spanning fundamental combustion investigations, propulsion and energy-conversion systems, and fire and explosion hazards. Challenges unique to CombML are discussed and further opportunities are identified, focusing on interpretability, uncertainty quantification, robustness, consistency, creation and curation of benchmark data, and the augmentation of ML methods with prior combustion-domain knowledge.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Towards real-time forecasting of natural gas production by harnessing graph theory for stochastic discrete fracture networks

In this work, we compare hydrocarbon production curves obtained from a graph-based reduced-order model with the high-fidelity Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) predictions for a fracture network created using data from a real shale site. We observe that the bounds for the high fidelity DFN model lie within the bounds for the reduced order model, implying that the reduced-order model provides a conservative estimate. Moreover, we found that except for first-passage times and late arriving mass, the production curves from the reduced-order model predict transport accurately. However, it is to be noted that the results are inspite of trading a three-dimensional geometry for a reduced system in the form of a graph, one that is 500–1000 times faster in terms of computational efficiency (for this particular application). In addition, we also compare the production curves for large drawdown and small drawdown using our graph approach. The reduced-order model is successful in showing that the long term productivity is higher in case of small drawdown although the initial productivity is higher for large drawdown. Thus, this reduced-order model offers great potential in uncertainty quantification for production, as well as in providing operators with information to make real-time decisions for optimal production.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

GeN-ROM—An OpenFOAM®-based multiphysics reduced-order modeling framework for the analysis of Molten Salt Reactors

This work presents a projection-based multiphysics Model Order Reduction (MOR) framework for the analysis of nuclear systems and its application to parametric simulations of Molten Salt Reactors (MSR). The framework, named GeN-ROM, is developed using OpenFOAM® and employs a Proper Orthogonal Decomposition aided Reduced-Basis technique (POD-RB). It can be used to reduce steady-state and transient multiphysics problems involving parametric fluid dynamics, heat exchange, and neutronics phenomena. For the treatment of structural elements in the hydraulic systems, a porous medium approach has been adopted. The reduction process is data-driven and snapshot information is extracted via POD to learn the solution manifold and to build global spatial basis functions. At the data collection phase, GeN-ROM makes use of the solvers available in GeN-Foam, a similarly OpenFOAM®-based multiphysics framework developed for the analysis of nuclear reactors. The global bases are used both to approximate the solution fields and to project the full-order equations onto lower-dimensional subspaces, thus considerably reducing the number of unknowns in a numerical system. This reduction leads to significant computational speedups, which is ideal for multi-query applications such as uncertainty quantification or design optimization. The developed tool has been tested using a 2D multiphysics model of the Molten Salt Fast Reactor (MSFR) with steady-state and transient scenarios, with speedups on the order of 10 – 10 5 .

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Ab initio symmetry-adapted approaches to nuclear reactions

In this review, we discuss recent applications of the ab initio symmetry-adapted no-core shell-model (SA-NCSM) theory for study and prediction of structure and reactions of stable and unstable nuclei from light to medium mass range. We explore structure properties of neutron-rich He, Li, and Mg isotopes, with a focus on nuclear collectivity, clustering, and spectroscopic factors, as well as multi-particle excitations of utmost significance in the proximity of the drip lines. In addition, we present extensions of the SA-NCSM with continuum for determining the microscopic structure of reaction fragments, which enables calculations of reaction cross sections for targets from the lightest He to 40Ca, rooted in first principles. We illustrate this for neutron and proton elastic scattering, deuteron and alpha capture reactions, and alpha knock-out reactions. Furthermore, we discuss microscopic optical potentials with uncertainty quantification, a critical ingredient in many reaction models. As a result, we also discuss the impact of alpha clustering on reactions of significance to nuclear astrophysics, as well as on beta decays and beyond-the-standard-model physics.

Ab initio approaches to nuclear reactions↗

Asynchronous Two-Level Checkpointing Scheme for Large-Scale Adjoints in the Spectral-Element Solver Nek5000

Adjoints are an important computational tool for large-scale sensitivity evaluation, uncertainty quantification, and derivative-based optimization. An essential component of their performance is the storage/recomputation balance in which efficient checkpointing methods play a key role. We introduce a novel asynchronous two-level adjoint checkpointing scheme for multistep numerical time discretizations targeted at large-scale numerical simulations. The checkpointing scheme combines bandwidth-limited disk checkpointing and binomial memory checkpointing. Based on assumptions about the target petascale systems, which we later demonstrate to be realistic on the IBM Blue Gene/Q system Mira, we create a model of the expected performance of our checkpointing approach and validate it using the highly scalable Navier-Stokes spectralelement solver Nek5000 on small to moderate subsystems of the Mira supercomputer. In turn, this allows us to predict optimal algorithmic choices when using all of Mira. We also demonstrate that two-level checkpointing is significantly superior to single-level checkpointing when adjoining a large number of time integration steps. To our knowledge, this is the first time two-level checkpointing had been designed, implemented, tuned, and demonstrated on fluid dynamics codes at large scale of 50k+ cores.

Adjoints↗

Recent advances in computational mathematics and applications

We are honored to bring you this special issue dedicated to recent advances in computational mathematics and applications in science and engineering. The papers in this special issue were presented in ”Conference on Computational Mathematics and Applications (CCMA)” held at the University of Nevada Las Vegas (UNLV) during October 25–27, 2019. The conference has attracted about 90 attendees from six countries. The 15 papers in the special issue comprise a diverse collection of theoretical numerical analysis as well as applications in various subjects. Topics cover optimal control of PDEs, discontinuous Galerkin methods, fluid flow in porous media, turbulence flow, static and moving interface problems, complex fluids composed by the mixture of Newtonian fluid and nematic (liquid crystal) flows, modeling of ocean–atmosphere system, image segmentation algorithm, uncertainty quantification problems for turbulence model and Maxwell’s equations, iterative solver for systems resulting from mixed methods, and novel methods for solving systems of nonlinear equations. As the Guest Editors we would like to thank Dr. Leland Jameson at NSF (National Science Foundation) for kindly supporting our conference proposal which made this conference possible. We would also like to thank Darren Sugrue from Elsevier who provided partial support for our conference, and Thennarasu Gunasekaran and his production team from Elsevier who produced this nice special issue. We are grateful to many people (Dr. Zhijian Wu, Lori Ornelas, Elsa Juarez, and many Ph.D. students) at the Department of Mathematical Sciences of UNLV who provided tremendous support for the conference. Finally, we very much appreciate all authors who contributed their precious results to this special issue.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

High-resolution hourly surrogate modeling framework for physics-based large-scale building stock modeling

Surrogate modeling can play a key role in reducing high computational burdens for large-scale physics-based modeling and uncertainty quantification. With the rapid development of large-scale building stock energy modeling, surrogate modeling has also begun to be widely applied in this field; however, most existing surrogate models lack hourly time resolution for regional-scale modeling, which is essential for understanding building demand profiles and grid impacts. Further, there is generally a lack of necessary data and feature engineering frameworks specific to building modeling for efficiently managing large datasets and complex computations. Furthermore, this paper proposes a modeling framework for large-scale (city-/region-scale), high-resolution, high-fidelity surrogate building stock energy models. Our developed framework consists of six modules: (1) building stock energy modeling (ComStock TM and ResStock TM ), (2) data engineering for large simulation data, (3) high performance computing workflow, (4) feature engineering, (5) machine learning model development, and (6) model performance evaluation. Two case studies apply the developed framework in both residential and commercial building stock analysis to demonstrate its computational efficiency and surrogate modeling accuracies. Results show that surrogate models, when efficiently trained using the HPC workflow module, reach a high level of modeling accuracy for two case studies.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

JetGP: A derivative enhanced Gaussian process library

Derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGPs) can significantly improve surrogate model accuracy over standard Gaussian Process (GP) formulations by incorporating derivative information. However, standard implementations scale poorly with dimension, limiting their use in high dimensional engineering problems. JetGP is a Python framework that unifies existing derivative enhanced GP methodologies into a single library and extends them to support arbitrary order derivative information. The library implements four complementary formulations: standard derivative enhanced Gaussian Processes (DEGP), directional DEGP (DDEGP), generalized directional DEGP (GDDEGP), and weighted DEGP (WDEGP). By unifying these approaches in a consistent interface with robust numerical implementations, JetGP enables practitioners to balance predictive accuracy and computational efficiency for high dimensional optimization, uncertainty quantification, and sensitivity analysis in engineering design.

Derivative enhanced Gaussian process↗

A proposed high-intensity radiometer calibration method using concentrated solar radiation

Accurate calibration of irradiance measurement devices, or radiometers, is essential for ensuring the reliability of measurements in high heat applications such as concentrating solar power (CSP), aerospace, defense, and pulsed power systems. Despite the critical need, existing calibration standards and service providers are limited to irradiance levels below 100 kW/m 2 and specific radiation sources, which is insufficient for many applications. For instance, CSP technologies, particularly those under the Department of Energy’s Solar Energy Technologies Office (SETO) Gen 3 program, require accurate measurements of broadband irradiance at levels exceeding 2000 kW/m 2 . In even more extreme scenarios, such as re-entry vehicles, heat levels can surpass 10000 kW/m 2 . Current ISO standards, specifically ISO 14934–2 and ISO 14934–3, are constrained to lower irradiance levels and dependent on black body heat sources, limiting their applicability for high-intensity broadband irradiance measurements, particularly in concentrated solar applications. Here, to address this shortfall, the National Solar Thermal Test Facility (NSTTF) at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) proposes a calibration method and facility capable of characterizing radiometers up to 2750 kW/m 2 using concentrated solar irradiance. Calibrating with concentrated sunlight is important for solar applications as it aligns the calibration process with the solar spectrum. This alignment is crucial for minimizing systematic errors and avoiding the need for additional corrections that may arise when radiometers designed for solar applications are calibrated using black-body or electrical sources. This paper presents the present day NSTTF characterization facility and procedure, detailing the proposed calibration method and uncertainty quantification. The presented method builds upon 1980′s NSTTF methodology and involves both theoretical and empirical methods to establish a robust relationship between gauge voltage output and irradiance intensity, quantifying both measurement and fitting errors. By addressing the limitations of existing standards and extending the characterization range, this work provides an advancement in the field of high-intensity irradiance measurement and instrumentation characterization.

Gardon gauge↗

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of a subglacial drainage model

Subglacial drainage models, often motivated by the relationship between hydrology and ice flow, sensitively depend on numerous unconstrained parameters. We explore using borehole water-pressure time series to calibrate the uncertain parameters of a popular subglacial drainage model, taking a Bayesian perspective to quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates and in the calibrated model predictions. To reduce the computation time associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, we construct a fast Gaussian process emulator to stand in for the subglacial drainage model. We first carry out a calibration experiment using synthetic observations consisting of model simulations with hidden parameter values as a demonstration of the method. Using real borehole water pressures measured in western Greenland, we find meaningful constraints on four of the eight model parameters and a factor-of-three reduction in uncertainty of the calibrated model predictions. These experiments illustrate Gaussian process-based Bayesian inference as a useful tool for calibration and uncertainty quantification of complex glaciological models using field data. However, significant differences between the calibrated model and the borehole data suggest that structural limitations of the model, rather than poorly constrained parameters or computational cost, remain the most important constraint on subglacial drainage modelling.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗