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At least 1,783 records · Page 99

Response Surface Modeling Using Multivariate Orthogonal Functions

A nonlinear modeling technique was used to characterize response surfaces for non-dimensional longitudinal aerodynamic force and moment coefficients, based on wind tunnel data from a commercial jet transport model. Data were collected using two experimental procedures - one based on modem design of experiments (MDOE), and one using a classical one factor at a time (OFAT) approach. The nonlinear modeling technique used multivariate orthogonal functions generated from the independent variable data as modeling functions in a least squares context to characterize the response surfaces. Model terms were selected automatically using a prediction error metric. Prediction error bounds computed from the modeling data alone were found to be- a good measure of actual prediction error for prediction points within the inference space. Root-mean-square model fit error and prediction error were less than 4 percent of the mean response value in all cases. Efficacy and prediction performance of the response surface models identified from both MDOE and OFAT experiments were investigated.

Morelli, Eugene A.↗

Investigating the dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and clouds on the spatial scale of large-scale forcing at SGP [Investigating the scale dependence of SCM simulated precipitation and cloud by using gridded forcing data at SGP]

Large-scale forcing data, such as vertical velocity and advective tendencies, are required to drive single-column models (SCMs), cloud-resolving models, and large-eddy simulations. Previous studies suggest that some errors of these model simulations could be attributed to the lack of spatial variability in the specified domain-mean large-scale forcing. This study investigates the spatial variability of the forcing and explores its impact on SCM simulated precipitation and clouds. A gridded large-scale forcing data during the March 2000 Cloud Intensive Operational Period at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program's Southern Great Plains site is used for analysis and to drive the single-column version of the Community Atmospheric Model Version 5 (SCAM5). When the gridded forcing data show large spatial variability, such as during a frontal passage, SCAM5 with the domain-mean forcing is not able to capture the convective systems that are partly located in the domain or that only occupy part of the domain. This problem has been largely reduced by using the gridded forcing data, which allows running SCAM5 in each subcolumn and then averaging the results within the domain. This is because the subcolumns have a better chance to capture the timing of the frontal propagation and the small-scale systems. As a result, other potential uses of the gridded forcing data, such as understanding and testing scale-aware parameterizations, are also discussed.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Improving Energy Use Forecast for Campus Micro-grids using Indirect Indicators

The rising global demand for energy is best addressed by adopting and promoting sustainable methods of power consumption. We employ an informatics approach towards forecasting the energy consumption patterns in a university campus micro-grid which can be used for energy use planning and conservation. We use novel indirect indicators of energy that are commonly available to train regression tree models that can predict campus and building energy use for coarse (daily) and fine (15-min) time intervals, utilizing 3 years of sensor data collected at 15min intervals from 170 smart power meters. We analyze the impact of individual features used in the models to identify the ones best suited for the application. Our models show a high degree of accuracy with CV-RMSE errors ranging from 7.45% to 19.32%, and a reduction in error from baseline models by up to 53%.

energy forecast models↗

Problems and research issues associated with the hybrid control of force and displacement

The hybrid control of force and position is basic to the science of robotics but is only poorly understood. Before much progress can be made in robotics, this problem needs to be solved in a robust manner. However, the use of hybrid control implies the existence of a model of the environment, not an exact model (as the function of hybrid control is to accommodate these errors), but a model appropriate for planning and reasoning. The monitored forces in position control are interpreted in terms of a model of the task as are the monitored displacements in force control. The reaction forces of the task of writing are far different from those of hammering. The programming of actions in such a modeled world becomes more complicated and systems of task level programming need to be developed. Sensor based robotics, of which force sensing is the most basic, implies an entirely new level of technology. Indeed, robot force sensors, no matter how compliant they may be, must be protected from accidental collisions. This implies other sensors to monitor task execution and again the use of a world model. This new level of technology is the task level, in which task actions are specified, not the actions of individual sensors and manipulators.

Paul, R. P.↗

Quantum-Assisted Variational Segmentation for Image-to-Image Wildfire Detection Using Satellite Data

The quantum computing community has been searching for suitable applications to demonstrate the potential of near-term quantum devices. Quantum machine learning is a potential candidate, particularly using models that cannot be efficiently simulated with classical computers [1, 2]. This work focuses on a transition phase of quantum computers where the quantum machine learning model is still simulable classically but projected not to be simulable as the size of the model grows. Ultimately quantum computers may have advantages for high-dimensional real-world problems. Due to the limited number of qubits in current noisy intermediate-scale quantum (NISQ) devices, the direct application of quantum computers in high dimensional data is not feasible. To remedy this problem, an encoder-decoder architecture can be utilized. The encoder model would transform the high-dimensional data into a compact representation, to a level that small quantum computers can be used today (or in the near future), and the decoder would take the quantum processed outputs back to the high-dimensional space. Addressing the two challenges of quantum machine learning, this work investigates a hybrid supervised generative model with a quantum Ising Born machine embedded as the latent distribution. The model contains four main parts (Figure 1.a.): (1) a U-NET architecture responsible for learning segmentation flow, (2) a Prior network responsible for learning an encoded latent distribution of the input data, (3) a Born machine which represents the latent distribution, and (4) a Posterior network in charge of learning the joint encoded latent distribution of inputs and target data. The initial model, proposed by [3], is optimized by (1) maximizing the overlap of the prior and posterior latent distributions, and (2) minimizing the segmentation loss. The proposed model is designed to be investigated in a simulation environment applied to the real-world application of wildfire segmentation. Specifically, the model is designed to solve the patchy wildfire segmentations of Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) by taking the MODIS observations and using Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite’s (VIIRS) consistent wildfire product as the target. The model solves patchy wildfire segmentations and provides insight into the epistemic errors sourced from model variation. The model utilizes the Born machine as a QUBO solver to represent the latent space as a Bernoulli distribution. The proposed configuration allows the variational segmentation model to leverage the true quantum probabilistic nature and derive a more expressive latent configuration, increasing the model performance in describing wildfire segmentations. The quantum probabilistic information of the Born machine is directly incorporated in the Kullback-Leibler divergence loss in the prior and posterior distributions, forcing the Bernoulli latent distribution to maximize the overlap of input and joint input-target distributions. The proposed model is then trained and compared with a baseline only consisting of direct Bernoulli latent distribution with no Born machine representing the latent space. The models are evaluated based on the segmentation metrics, such as precision, recall, intersect of union, with uncertainty boundaries accounting for the stochastic nature of the model. Our findings show that even in low latent-dimensional space (due to the limit in computational power of the classical quantum simulator), we are able to effectively capture the latent representation and hence the model performs better than the baseline. The findings are a projection for scaling the model into higher dimensional latent space with the Born machine surpassing the baseline performance. Figure 1. Sub-figure (a) demonstrates the architecture for the training phase. The model consists of a Prior and Posterior network that encode inputs and joint input-target data into compact representations, respectively. The Born machine represents the latent distribution, and the U-NET branch learns the segmentation patterns of the data. The stochasticity is introduced to the U-NET through its last layer to create meaningful but stochastic segmentations. Sub-figure (b) represents the inference phase where the model takes the stochastic behavior from the prior network and injects that into the U-NET. Each attempt of inference will generate different but similar segmentations from the same distribution of the wildfire event. REFERENCES [1] Coyle, B., Mills, D., Danos, V., & Kashefi, E. (2020). The Born supremacy: quantum advantage and training of an Ising Born machine. npj Quantum Information, 6(1), 1-11. [2] Liu, J. G., & Wang, L. (2018). Differentiable learning of quantum circuit born machines. Physical Review A, 98(6), 062324. [3] Kohl, S., Romera-Paredes, B., Meyer, C., De Fauw, J., Ledsam, J. R., Maier-Hein, K., ... & Ronneberger, O. (2018). A probabilistic u-net for segmentation of ambiguous images. Advances in neural information processing systems, 31.

quantum machine learning↗

D-Factor: A Quantitative Model of Application Slow-Down in Multi-Resource Shared Systems

Scheduling multiple jobs onto a platform enhances system utilization by sharing resources. The benefits from higher resource utilization include reduced cost to construct, operate, and maintain a system, which often include energy consumption. Maximizing these benefits comes at a price - resource contention among jobs increases job completion time. In this paper, we analyze slow-downs of jobs due to contention for multiple resources in a system; referred to as dilation factor. We observe that multiple-resource contention creates non-linear dilation factors of jobs. From this observation, we establish a general quantitative model for dilation factors of jobs in multi-resource systems. A job is characterized by a vector-valued loading statistics and dilation factors of a job set are given by a quadratic function of their loading vectors. We demonstrate how to systematically characterize a job, maintain the data structure to calculate the dilation factor (loading matrix), and calculate the dilation factor of each job. We validate the accuracy of the model with multiple processes running on a native Linux server, virtualized servers, and with multiple MapReduce workloads co-scheduled in a cluster. Evaluation with measured data shows that the D-factor model has an error margin of less than 16%. We also show that the model can be integrated with an existing on-line scheduler to minimize the makespan of workloads.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Propagation of data error and parametric sensitivity in computable general equilibrium model.

While computable general equilibrium (CGE) models are a well-established tool in economic analyses, it is often difficult to disentangle the effects of policies of interest from that of the assumptions made regarding the underlying calibration data and model parameters. To characterize the behavior of a CGE model of carbon output with respect to two of these assumptions, we perform a large-scale Monte Carlo experiment to examine its sensitivity to base year calibration data and elasticity of substitution parameters in the absence of a policy change. By examining a variety of output variables at different levels of economic and geographic aggregation, we assess how these forms of uncertainty impact the conclusions that can be drawn from the model simulations. We find greater sensitivity to uncertainty in the elasticity of substitution parameters than to uncertainty in the base-year data as the projection period increases. While many model simulations were conducted to generate large output samples, we find that few are required to capture the mean model response of the variables tested. However, characterizing standard errors and empirical probability distribution functions is not possible without a large number of simulations.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Control effort associated with model reference adaptive control for vibration damping

The performance of Model Reference Adaptive Control (MRAC) is studied in numerical simulations with the objective of understanding the effects of differences between the plant and the reference model. MRAC is applied to two structural systems with adjustable error between the reference model and the actual plant. Performance indices relating to control effort and response characteristics are monitored in order to determine what effects small errors have on the control effort and performance of the two systems. It is shown that reasonable amounts of error in the reference model can cause dramatic increases in both the control effort and response magnitude (as measured by energy integrals) of the plant.

Messer, Richard Scott↗

Breaking Computational Barriers: Real-time Analysis and Optimization with Large-scale Nonlinear Models via Model Reduction

Model reduction for dynamical systems is a promising approach for reducing the computational cost of large-scale physics-based simulations to enable high-fidelity models to be used in many- query (e.g., Bayesian inference) and near-real-time (e.g., fast-turnaround simulation) contexts. While model reduction works well for specialized problems such as linear time-invariant systems, it is much more difficult to obtain accurate, stable, and efficient reduced-order models (ROMs) for systems with general nonlinearities. This report describes several advances that enable nonlinear reduced-order models (ROMs) to be deployed in a variety of time-critical settings. First, we present an error bound for the Gauss-Newton with Approximated Tensors (GNAT) nonlinear model reduction technique. This bound allows the state-space error for the GNAT method to be quantified when applied with the backward Euler time-integration scheme. Second, we present a methodology for preserving classical Lagrangian structure in nonlinear model reduction. This technique guarantees that important properties--such as energy conservation and symplectic time-evolution maps--are preserved when performing model reduction for models described by a Lagrangian formalism (e.g., molecular dynamics, structural dynamics). Third, we present a novel technique for decreasing the temporal complexity --defined as the number of Newton-like iterations performed over the course of the simulation--by exploiting time-domain data. Fourth, we describe a novel method for refining projection-based reduced-order models a posteriori using a goal-oriented framework similar to mesh-adaptive h -refinement in finite elements. The technique allows the ROM to generate arbitrarily accurate solutions, thereby providing the ROM with a 'failsafe' mechanism in the event of insufficient training data. Finally, we present the reduced-order model error surrogate (ROMES) method for statistically quantifying reduced- order-model errors. This enables ROMs to be rigorously incorporated in uncertainty-quantification settings, as the error model can be treated as a source of epistemic uncertainty. This work was completed as part of a Truman Fellowship appointment. We note that much additional work was performed as part of the Fellowship. One salient project is the development of the Trilinos-based model-reduction software module Razor , which is currently bundled with the Albany PDE code and currently allows nonlinear reduced-order models to be constructed for any application supported in Albany. Other important projects include the following: 1. ROMES-equipped ROMs for Bayesian inference: K. Carlberg, M. Drohmann, F. Lu (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory), M. Morzfeld (Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory). 2. ROM-enabled Krylov-subspace recycling: K. Carlberg, V. Forstall (University of Maryland), P. Tsuji, R. Tuminaro. 3. A pseudo balanced POD method using only dual snapshots: K. Carlberg, M. Sarovar. 4. An analysis of discrete v. continuous optimality in nonlinear model reduction: K. Carlberg, M. Barone, H. Antil (George Mason University). Journal articles for these projects are in progress at the time of this writing.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Circulation from a joint gravity field solution determination of the general ocean

With the development of satellite altimetry, it is possible to infer the geostrophic velocity of the surface ocean currents, if the geoid and the position of the satellite are known accurately. Errors in current geoid models and orbit computations, both due primarily to errors in the earth's gravity field model, have limited the use of altimeter data for this purpose. The objective of this investigation is to demonstrate that altimeter data can be used in a joint solution to simultaneously estimate the quasi-stationary sea surface topography, zeta, and the model for the gravity field. Satellite tracking data from twelve satellites were used along with Seasat altimeter data for the solution. The estimated model of zeta compares well at long wavelengths with the hydrographic model of zeta. Covariance analysis indicates that the geoid is separable from zeta up to degree 9, at which point geoid error is comparable to the signal of zeta.

Tapley, B. D.↗

Application of TOMS data to weather analysis models

Recent studies of the errors of analysis reflected by numerical weather analysis models are reviewed. Despite the improvements in data coverage and data ingestion methods in the past decade, it is found that significant errors of analysis persist. A case study comparison of Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) data and aircraft data with the NMC analysis over the North Atlantic is used to illustrate the size of local errors encountered. The possibility of using TOMS images to locate meteorologically significant features such as troughs and ridges near the tropopause is discussed.

Nastrom, Gregory D.↗

Reliability prediction for a class of highly reliable digital systems

Three theorems which show that the reliability of a popular class of systems can be computed using small and simple models are presented. This class consists of systems that are assemblages of subsystems where each subsystem is a majority-voting threeplex plus spares or majority-voting fourplex plus spares. The theorems are error bounds for model reduction and simplification. The error bounds are given in terms of readily available system parameters. The three theorems have been applied to a system that has been used as an example that generates extremely large reliability models; the system considered is one version of AIPS (Advanced Information Processing System) for IAPSA (Integrated Airframe Propulsion System Architecture).

White, Allan L.↗

Automated contouring error detection based on supervised geometric attribute distribution models for radiation therapy: A general strategy

Purpose: One of the most critical steps in radiation therapy treatment is accurate tumor and critical organ-at-risk (OAR) contouring. Both manual and automated contouring processes are prone to errors and to a large degree of inter- and intraobserver variability. These are often due to the limitations of imaging techniques in visualizing human anatomy as well as to inherent anatomical variability among individuals. Physicians/physicists have to reverify all the radiation therapy contours of every patient before using them for treatment planning, which is tedious, laborious, and still not an error-free process. In this study, the authors developed a general strategy based on novel geometric attribute distribution (GAD) models to automatically detect radiation therapy OAR contouring errors and facilitate the current clinical workflow. Methods: Considering the radiation therapy structures’ geometric attributes (centroid, volume, and shape), the spatial relationship of neighboring structures, as well as anatomical similarity of individual contours among patients, the authors established GAD models to characterize the interstructural centroid and volume variations, and the intrastructural shape variations of each individual structure. The GAD models are scalable and deformable, and constrained by their respective principal attribute variations calculated from training sets with verified OAR contours. A new iterative weighted GAD model-fitting algorithm was developed for contouring error detection. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was employed in a unique way to optimize the model parameters to satisfy clinical requirements. A total of forty-four head-and-neck patient cases, each of which includes nine critical OAR contours, were utilized to demonstrate the proposed strategy. Twenty-nine out of these forty-four patient cases were utilized to train the inter- and intrastructural GAD models. These training data and the remaining fifteen testing data sets were separately employed to test the effectiveness of the proposed contouring error detection strategy. Results: An evaluation tool was implemented to illustrate how the proposed strategy automatically detects the radiation therapy contouring errors for a given patient and provides 3D graphical visualization of error detection results as well. The contouring error detection results were achieved with an average sensitivity of 0.954/0.906 and an average specificity of 0.901/0.909 on the centroid/volume related contouring errors of all the tested samples. As for the detection results on structural shape related contouring errors, an average sensitivity of 0.816 and an average specificity of 0.94 on all the tested samples were obtained. The promising results indicated the feasibility of the proposed strategy for the detection of contouring errors with low false detection rate. Conclusions: The proposed strategy can reliably identify contouring errors based upon inter- and intrastructural constraints derived from clinically approved contours. It holds great potential for improving the radiation therapy workflow. ROC and box plot analyses allow for analytically tuning of the system parameters to satisfy clinical requirements. Future work will focus on the improvement of strategy reliability by utilizing more training sets and additional geometric attribute constraints.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

The battle of clean and dirty qubits in the era of partial error correction

When error correction becomes possible it will be necessary to dedicate a large number of physical qubits to each logical qubit. Error correction allows for deeper circuits to be run, but each additional physical qubit can potentially contribute an exponential increase in computational space, so there is a trade-off between using qubits for error correction or using them as noisy qubits. In this work, we look at the effects of using noisy qubits in conjunction with noiseless qubits (an idealized model for error-corrected qubits), which we call the “clean and dirty” setup. We employ analytical models and numerical simulations to characterize this setup. Numerically we show the appearance of Noise-Induced Barren Plateaus (NIBPs), i.e., an exponential concentration of observables caused by noise, in an Ising model Hamiltonian variational ansatz circuit. We observe this even if only a single qubit is noisy and given a deep enough circuit, suggesting that NIBPs cannot be fully overcome simply by error-correcting a subset of the qubits. On the positive side, we find that for every noiseless qubit in the circuit, there is an exponential suppression in the concentration of gradient observables, showing the benefit of partial error correction. Finally, our analytical models corroborate these findings by showing that observables concentrate with a scaling in the exponent related to the ratio of dirty-to-total qubits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The battle of clean and dirty qubits in the era of partial error correction

When error correction becomes possible it will be necessary to dedicate a large number of physical qubits to each logical qubit. Error correction allows for deeper circuits to be run, but each additional physical qubit can potentially contribute an exponential increase in computational space, so there is a trade-off between using qubits for error correction or using them as noisy qubits. In this work we look at the effects of using noisy qubits in conjunction with noiseless qubits (an idealized model for error-corrected qubits), which we call the "clean and dirty" setup. We employ analytical models and numerical simulations to characterize this setup. Numerically we show the appearance of Noise-Induced Barren Plateaus (NIBPs), i.e., an exponential concentration of observables caused by noise, in an Ising model Hamiltonian variational ansatz circuit. We observe this even if only a single qubit is noisy and given a deep enough circuit, suggesting that NIBPs cannot be fully overcome simply by error-correcting a subset of the qubits. On the positive side, we find that for every noiseless qubit in the circuit, there is an exponential suppression in concentration of gradient observables, showing the benefit of partial error correction. Finally, our analytical models corroborate these findings by showing that observables concentrate with a scaling in the exponent related to the ratio of dirty-to-total qubits.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Cost-constrained adaptive simulations of transient spray combustion in a gas turbine combustor

Predictive high-fidelity simulations of turbulent spray combustion must capture the combined effects of complex chemistry, multiphase evaporating flow and spray-flame interactions to achieve physical accuracy. Finite-rate chemistry (FRC) combined with a realistic chemical mechanism is a combustion model well-suited for this purpose, but has a high computational cost due to the large number and stiffness of transported chemical species. In contrast, flamelet-based models achieve lower cost by transporting a small number of quantities of reduced stiffness, but assumptions regarding local flame topology, boundary conditions and inter-phase coupling limit their physical accuracy. Recently, the Pareto-efficient combustion (PEC) framework was developed to dynamically assign combustion models based on local cost and accuracy metrics in gas-phase reacting flows. In this work, we extend this PEC framework to spray combustion through the rigorous analysis of the multiphase coupling terms in the governing equations. The derivation shows that spray evaporation causes errors in the prediction of species mass fractions for flamelet-based models due to the sensitivity of the local thermo-chemical state to changes in composition caused by fuel vaporization across combustion regimes present in practical spray combustion devices. Sub-model assignment is formulated as a multiple-choice knapsack problem, where computational cost is directly controlled through the fraction of the domain assigned to the FRC sub-model. The extended PEC formulation is applied to the simulation of a realistic rich-quench-lean gas turbine combustor at steady-state conditions, as well as transient operation resulting in lean blow-out (LBO). Analysis of transient simulations during LBO demonstrates the extended PEC formulation’s capacity to dynamically adapt to changing conditions within the combustor. Transient combustor dynamics are shown to approach convergence with limited increases in computational cost, while retaining substantial computational cost reduction compared to monolithic FRC simulations. Through PEC simulations with increasing fractions of the domain assigned to FRC, monolithic flamelet simulations are shown to over-predict flame stability during LBO. Finally, the extended PEC formulation is thus shown to overcome deficiencies of monolithic models by controlling modeling error for multiphase combustion modeling.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Spectral reflectance reconstruction with the locally weighted linear model

Spectral reflectance reconstruction by the local linear model has many advantages such as simple model structure, fast calculation speed and less chance to be over-fitting. However, local linear model often suffers from the outliers and prone to be under-fitting. In this paper, we propose a locally weighted linear model for spectral reflectance reconstruction. It improves the contribution of the local neighbors with higher similarity to the test point, which can reduce the influence of noisy points and redundant points. Experimental results show that the locally weighted linear model can effectively reduce the reconstruction error.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

A quantitative model of application slow-down in multi-resource shared systems

Scheduling multiple jobs onto a platform enhances system utilization by sharing resources. The benefits from higher resource utilization include reduced cost to construct, operate, and maintain a system, which often include energy consumption. Maximizing these benefits comes at a price-resource contention among jobs increases job completion time. In this study, we analyze slow-downs of jobs due to contention for multiple resources in a system; referred to as dilation factor. We observe that multiple-resource contention creates non-linear dilation factors of jobs. From this observation, we establish a general quantitative model for dilation factors of jobs in multi-resource systems. A job is characterized by a vector-valued loading statistics and dilation factors of a job set are given by a quadratic function of their loading vectors. We demonstrate how to systematically characterize a job, maintain the data structure to calculate the dilation factor (loading matrix), and calculate the dilation factor of each job. We validate the accuracy of the model with multiple processes running on a native Linux server, virtualized servers, and with multiple MapReduce workloads co-scheduled in a cluster. Evaluation with measured data shows that the D-factor model has an error margin of less than 16%. We extended the D-factor model to capture the slow-down of applications when multiple identical resources exist such as multi-core environments and multi-disks environments. Finally, validation results of the extended D-factor model with HPC checkpoint applications on the parallel file systems show that D-factor accurately captures the slow down of concurrent applications in such environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗