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DOE OSTI2026

Application of artificial intelligence methods in the international roughness index prediction of rigid and composite pavements: a systematic review

The International Roughness Index (IRI) is a widely adopted metric for quantifying pavement roughness, directly influencing vehicle safety, ride comfort, and overall roadway performance. In recent years, the use of Machine Learning (ML) models for IRI prediction has gained momentum, with the goal of improving the allocation of maintenance and rehabilitation resources by enabling accurate assessments of pavement conditions. Most prior reviews, however, have concentrated on flexible pavements, leaving a notable gap regarding rigid and composite pavements. To address this gap, the present study conducts a systematic review of Artificial Intelligence (AI) methods applied to IRI prediction for rigid and composite pavements. Literature published between 2004 and 2025 is synthesized to highlight prevailing trends, methodological contributions, and directions for future research. Particular attention is given to the types of models employed, the datasets used for training and validation, and the role of input variables and data-processing strategies. Across the included studies, ensemble learning methods (especially gradient boosting variants such as XGBoost), artificial neural networks, and hybrid architectures frequently achieved high predictive skill, with several models reporting test-set coefficients of determination approaching 0.9–0.96, indicating strong potential for capturing the influence of traffic, pavement structure, and climatic factors. Since these results are obtained from heterogeneous datasets and evaluation protocols, they are interpreted qualitatively rather than as strict cross-study rankings. Analysis of input variables revealed that pavement age and initial IRI were included in 91% (21 of 23) and 78% (18 of 23) of studies, respectively. Climatic variables such as the freezing index appeared in 57% (13 of 23), while traffic-related factors were considered in 65% (15 of 23). The findings underscore the importance of standardized, high-quality datasets, such as those from the Long-Term Pavement Performance (LTPP) program, along with data consistency, model interpretability, computational efficiency, and replicability in enhancing IRI prediction. Future research should focus on incorporating input variable selection techniques to identify the most influential predictors, thereby improving accuracy and robustness. Integrating these approaches with advanced non-linear data-driven models, coupled with robust hyperparameter optimization, holds considerable promise for strengthening the reliability of IRI prediction and supporting resilient pavement management strategies.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2020

A new form of the Saint-Venant equations for variable topography

The solution stability of river models using the one-dimensional (1D) Saint-Venant equations can be easily undermined when source terms in the discrete equations do not satisfy the Lipschitz smoothness condition for partial differential equations. Although instability issues have been previously noted, they are typically treated as model implementation issues rather than as underlying problems associated with the form of the governing equations. This study proposes a new reference slope form of the Saint-Venant equations to ensure smooth slope source terms and eliminate one source of potential numerical oscillations. It is shown that a simple algebraic transformation of channel geometry provides a smooth reference slope while preserving the correct cross-section flow area and the total Piezometric pressure gradient that drives the flow. The reference slope method ensures the slope source term in the governing equations is Lipschitz continuous while maintaining all the underlying complexity of the real-world geometry. The validity of the mathematical concept is demonstrated with the open-source Simulation Program for River Networks (SPRNT) model in a series of artificial test cases and a simulation of a small urban creek. Validation comparisons are made with analytical solutions and the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS) model. The new method reduces numerical oscillations and instabilities without requiring ad hoc smoothing algorithms.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

A Multi-State Model for Catalyzing the National Home Energy Retrofit Market (Final Technical Report)

In the fall of 2010, the Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs (ADECA) launched the Multi-State Model for Catalyzing the National Home Energy Retrofit Market Project (Multi-State Project). This residential energy efficiency pilot program was a collaborative effort among the states of Alabama, Massachusetts, Virginia, and Washington, and was funded by competitive State Energy Program (SEP) awards through the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). The objective of this project was to catalyze the home energy efficiency retrofit market in select areas within the state of Alabama. To achieve this goal, the project addressed a variety of marketplace elements that did not exist, or were underdeveloped, at the outset of the effort. These included establishing minimum standards and credentials for marketplace suppliers, educating and engaging homeowners on the benefits of energy efficiency and addressing real or perceived financial barriers to investments in whole-home energy efficiency, among others. The anticipated effect of the activities would be increased market demand for retrofits, improved audit to retrofit conversion rates and growth in overall community understanding of energy efficiency. The four-state collaborative was created with the intent of accelerating market transformation by allowing each state to learn from their peers, each of whom possessed different starting points, resources, and strategies for achieving the overall objective. The four partner states engaged the National Association of State Energy Officials (NASEO) to oversee a project steering committee and to manage the project evaluation for all four states. The steering committee, comprised of key program partners, met on a regular basis to provide overall project coordination, guidance, and progress assessment. While there were variances in program design among the states, there were several common elements: use of the Energy Performance Score (EPS) platform; an audit and home energy rating tool; emphasis on community based coordination and partnerships; marketing and outreach to increase homeowner participation; training for market actors; access to financing options including rebates, incentives, and loan products; and an in depth process evaluation to support continual program improvement and analysis. In Alabama, Nexus Energy Center operated energy efficiency retrofit programs in Huntsville and Birmingham. In the Huntsville community the AlabamaWISE program was available in five Alabama counties: Cullman, Lawrence, Limestone, Madison, and Morgan. In Birmingham, the program was available to residents in Jefferson and Shelby Counties. In both communities, the program was similar in terms of program design but tailored marketing and partnerships to address the unique local conditions and population of each community. ADECA and the Southeast Energy Efficiency Alliance (SEEA) provided overall project management services and common resources to the local program administrator Nexus Energy Center, including contracted services for contractor training, quality assurance testing, data collection and reporting, and compliance. The fundamental components of the AlabamaWISE program included a vertical contractor-based business model; comprehensive energy assessments; third-party quality assurance; rebates for installation of energy saving measures; accessible, low-interest financing; targeted and inbound marketing; Energy Performance Score (EPS) tool to engage and educate homeowners; training for auditors, contractors, and real estate professionals; and online resources for education and program enrollment. Program participants were eligible to receive rebates or financing toward the assessments and upgrades to their home provided they reached at least 20 percent deemed or modeled energy savings. The design of each program focused on addressing several known barriers including: limited homeowner knowledge on the benefits of energy efficiency, lack of financing options, lack of community support for energy efficiency programs, and lack of trained market actors including contractors and real estate professionals. The programs were able to make progress on addressing all of these barriers and were most successful in offering financing options and training market actors. The most challenging barriers proved to be the act of building a market for energy efficiency where none previously existed, convincing homeowners of the value in investing in energy efficiency (and therefore completing retrofits), engaging electric and natural gas utilities to partner on delivery, and achieving the overall project target of 1,365 completed retrofits. The components that proved to be the most valuable to program success were engaged contractor networks that could promote and endorse the program, partnerships with local business and organizations, and the access to rebates, incentives and financing mechanisms. The programs were successful in building relationships with a variety of community participants including: local contractors, Associations of REALTORS, home builders associations, universities, utilities, local and state governments, and other non-profit organizations. Throughout this program, 933 building audits and 795 building retrofits were completed making homes in Alabama more comfortable, less expensive to operate, more valuable to the marketplace, and safer and healthier for families. Continuing on this momentum, Nexus Energy Center plans to continue operating and expanding operations in Alabama as a Home Performance with ENERGY STAR sponsor and will continue to provide energy services and education to communities in Alabama.

Grimes, Elizabeth M.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Global Corn Heat Stress: Mean and SD of Degree Days Above 29°C based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Climate Projections

Description This global dataset provides the estimated mean and standard deviation (SD) of corn heat stress (degree days above 29°C) for a set of climate models in NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 at 0.25-degree resolution. The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The current dataset includes: Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 The mean and SD are calculated over 1985-2014 for the historical period and over 2035-2064 for future projections. A full description of methods, including growing season, daily temperature distribution, and statistical coefficients, can be found in Haqiqi (2024). The source climate data are obtained from https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds2/catalog/catalog.html and are described in Thrasher et al (2022). The codes used to create this dataset are available at https://github.com/ihaqiqi/dd29c_nex_cmip6. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics under Cooperative Agreement DE-SC0022141. The data processing, computation, and storage were completed on Purdue Anvil supercomputer and cyberinfrastructure supported by the National Science Foundation HDR award # 2118329: "NSF Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE)". References Haqiqi. I. (2024). Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply. Environmental Research: Food Systems. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad7d12 Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A., Melton, F., Lee, T., & Nemani, R. (2022). NASA global daily downscaled projections, CMIP6. Scientific Data, 9(1), 262. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2014

COMPOSE-HPC: Software Composition for Extreme Scale Computational Science and Engineering

Software composition is an important aspect of computational science software engineering due to large scale production science codes involving multiple programming languages, execution and concurrency models. To date, programmers must manage the complexity of building and maintaining such systems largely by hand with minimal (if any) automated assistance. As such, a great deal of programmer time is spent generating and maintaining code which leads to a high maintenance and development cost, as well as an increased risk of errors being introduced by hand than would be expected in an automated system. COMPOSE-HPC was a multi-institutional effort, with the Galois contribution focused on a specific area of code analysis and software infrastructure. Specifically, Galois led the design and implementation for the Parser for Annotations in a User-specified Language (PAUL), as well as collaborating with SNL and LLNL on the Retargetable Open Transformation Engine (ROTE). Both components were built on top of the ROSE compiler infrastructure from LLNL. All artifacts developed under the COMPOSE-HPC program are available on the github.com and sourceforge.net open source hosting sites under permissive BSD3 software licenses.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2013

A Generic Biogeochemical Module for Earth System Models: Next Generation BioGeoChemical Module (NGBGC), Version 1.0

Physical and biogeochemical processes regulate soil carbon dynamics and CO2 flux to and from atmosphere, influencing global climate changes. Integration of these processes into earth system models (e.g., community land models (CLM)), however, currently faces three major challenges: 1) extensive efforts are required to modify modeling structures and to rewrite computer programs to incorporate new or updated processes as new knowledge is being generated, 2) computational cost is prohibitively expensive to simulate biogeochemical processes in land models due to large variations in the rates of biogeochemical processes, and 3) various mathematical representations of biogeochemical processes exist to incorporate different aspects of fundamental mechanisms, but systematic evaluation of the different mathematical representations is difficult, if not possible. To address these challenges, we propose a new computational framework to easily incorporate physical and biogeochemical processes into land models. The new framework consists of a new biogeochemical module with a generic algorithm and reaction database so that new and updated processes can be incorporated into land models without the need to manually set up the ordinary differential equations to be solved numerically. The reaction database consists of processes of nutrient flow through the terrestrial ecosystems in plants, litter and soil. This framework facilitates effective comparison studies of biogeochemical cycles in an ecosystem using different conceptual models under the same land modeling framework. The approach was first implemented in CLM and benchmarked against simulations from the original CLM-CN code. A case study was then provided to demonstrate the advantages of using the new approach to incorporate a phosphorus cycle into the CLM model. To our knowledge, the phosphorus-incorporated CLM is a new model that can be used to simulate phosphorus limitation on the productivity of terrestrial ecosystems.

Fang, Yilin↗

DOE OSTI2018

Mean-Variance Optimization-Based Energy Storage Scheduling Considering Day-Ahead and Real-Time LMP Uncertainties

In this letter, a new mean-variance optimization-based energy storage scheduling method is proposed with the consideration of both day-ahead (DA) and real-time (RT) energy markets price uncertainties. It considers the locational marginal price (LMP) forecast uncertainties in the DA and RT markets. The energy storage arbitrage risk associated with the LMP forecast uncertainty is explicitly modeled through the variance component in the objective function. The quadratic term of this variance is transformed into a second-order cone constraint using the charging and discharging power complementarity of the energy storage system. Finally, the proposed model is formulated as a mixed-integer conic programming problem. Numerical case studies demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model for energy storage scheduling considering price uncertainty.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

BioXTAS RAW 2 : new developments for a free open-source program for small-angle scattering data reduction and analysis

BioXTAS RAW is a free open-source program for reduction, analysis and modelling of biological small-angle scattering data. Here, the new developments in RAW version 2 are described. These include improved data reduction using pyFAI ; updated automated Guinier fitting and D max finding algorithms; automated series ( e.g. size-exclusion chromatography coupled small-angle X-ray scattering or SEC-SAXS) buffer- and sample-region finding algorithms; linear and integral baseline correction for series; deconvolution of series data using regularized alternating least squares ( REGALS ); creation of electron-density reconstructions using electron density via solution scattering ( DENSS ); a comparison window showing residuals, ratios and statistical comparisons between profiles; and generation of PDF reports with summary plots and tables for all analysis. Furthermore, there is now a RAW API, which can be used without the graphical user interface (GUI), providing full access to all of the functionality found in the GUI. In addition to these new capabilities, RAW has undergone significant technical updates, such as adding Python 3 compatibility, and has entirely new documentation available both online and in the program.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Software Bill of Materials in the Nuclear Industry

Nuclear power plants (NPP) have thousands of digital assets throughout their facility. Typically, NPPs have asset and configuration management programs that capture the make, model, and version of a component. This information, however, usually only includes first- or second-tier components and does not capture the complete enumeration of software components and their dependencies within operational technology (OT) equipment. As seen with recent cyberattacks, this level of detail is insufficient for identifying if and where an exploitable vulnerability exists within a facility. A software bill of materials (SBOM) provides this detailed enumeration. Further, integrating SBOMs with vulnerability data sources and vulnerability attestation reports can provide improved awareness leading to better cyber risk management and incident response. Preferably, SBOMs are provided by the supplier; however, when an NPP already owns a device, it is less likely they will have a supplier provided-SBOM. Fortunately, SBOMs can be generated on installed digital assets. This paper provides an introduction to the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy paper titled “Towards Software Bill of Materials in the Nuclear Industry,” which describes the SBOM ecosystem and provides a suggested approach to methodically and seamlessly integrate an SBOM program in an NPP.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of precipitation indices in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models over Florida

Abstract The present work evaluates historical precipitation and its indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) in suites of dynamically and statistically downscaled regional climate models (RCMs) against NOAA’s Global Historical Climatology Network Daily (GHCN-Daily) dataset over Florida. The models examined here are: (1) nested RCMs involved in the North American CORDEX (NA-CORDEX) program, (2) variable resolution Community Earth System Models (VR-CESM), (3) Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) models statistically downscaled using localized constructed analogs (LOCA) technique. To quantify observational uncertainty, three in situ-based (PRISM, Livneh, CPC) and three reanalysis (ERA5, MERRA2, NARR) datasets are also evaluated against the station data. The reanalyses and dynamically downscaled RCMs generally underestimate the magnitude of the monthly precipitation and the frequency of the extreme rainfall in summer. The models forced with CanESM2 miss the phase of the seasonality of extreme precipitation. All models and reanalyses severely underestimate both the mean and interannual variability of mean wet-day precipitation (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), and overestimate consecutive wet days (CWD). Metric analysis suggests large uncertainty across NA-CORDEX models. Both the LOCA and VR-CESM models perform better than the majority of models. Overall, RegCM4 and WRF models perform poorer than the median model performance. The performance uncertainty across models is comparable to that in the reanalyses. Specifically, NARR performs poorer than the median model performance in simulating the mean indices and MERRA2 performs worse than the majority of models in capturing the interannual variability of the indices.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2014

Energy Efficiency Finance Programs: Use Case Analysis to Define Data Needs and Guidelines

There are over 200 energy efficiency loan programs—across 49 U.S. states—administered by utilities, state/local government agencies, or private lenders.1 This distributed model has led to significant variation in program design and implementation practices including how data is collected and used. The challenge of consolidating and aggregating data across independently administered programs has been illustrated by a recent pilot of an open source database for energy efficiency financing program data. This project was led by the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), the Investor Confidence Project, the Clean Energy Finance Center (CEFC), and the University of Chicago. This partnership discussed data collection practices with a number of existing energy efficiency loan programs and identified four programs that were suitable and willing to participate in the pilot database (Diamond 2014).2 The partnership collected information related to ~12,000 loans with an aggregate value of ~$100M across the four programs. Of the 95 data fields collected across the four programs, 30 fields were common between two or more programs and only seven data fields were common across all programs. The results of that pilot study illustrate the inconsistencies in current data definition and collection practices among energy efficiency finance programs and may contribute to certain barriers.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2018

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual - Version 4.50.

This document describes the theoretical foundation of thermal analysis in Sierra Mechanics. The SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria, henceforth referred to as Aria for brevity, was developed at Sandia National Laboratories under the ASC program, and approximates linear and nonlinear continuum models of heat transfer. Aria uses the SIERRA Framework, which provides data management services commonly required by computational mechanics software, and facilitates the development of coupled, multi-mechanics applications for massively parallel computers. The mathematical models in Aria are based heavily on those of COYOTE, a well-established thermal analysis program that was also developed at Sandia and its ASC code predecessor, Calore. Aria, Calore and COYOTE share a significant body of numerical methods, which are described in detail by Reddy and Gartling. Throughout this document, the terms software and implementation are synonymous with the Aria thermal-fluid analysis computer program. Whether one uses Aria to perform heat transfer analysis, or in developing a new capability for the Aria application, this document provides the information needed understand the existing numerical algorithm implementations. Justification for the fundamental assumptions of heat transfer, nor derivation of the energy conservation equations are included in this document. For a more thorough theoretical background, one is referred to one of the many available textbooks, e.g. Another reference, which is freely available in downloadable electronic form, is Lienhard and Lienhard.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual - Version 4.48

This document describes the theoretical foundation of thermal analysis in Sierra Mechanics. The SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria, henceforth referred to as Aria for brevity, was developed at Sandia National Laboratories under the ASC program, and approximates linear and nonlinear continuum models of heat transfer. Aria uses the SIERRA Framework, which provides data management services commonly required by computational mechanics software, and facilitates the development of coupled, multi-mechanics applications for massively parallel computers. The mathematical models in Aria are based heavily on those of COYOTE, a well-established thermal analysis program that was also developed at Sandia and its ASC code predecessor, Calore. Aria, Calore and COYOTE share a significant body of numerical methods, which are described in detail by Reddy and Gartling. Throughout this document, the terms software and implementation are syn onymous with the Aria thermal-fluid analysis computer program. Whether one uses Aria to perform heat transfer analysis, or in developing a new capability for the Aria application, this document provides the information needed understand the existing numerical algorithm implementations. Justification for the fundamental assumptions of heat transfer, nor derivation of the energy conservation equations are included in this document. For a more thorough theoretical background, one is referred to one of the many available textbooks, e.g. Another reference, which is freely available in downloadable electronic form, is Lienhard and Lienhard.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2017

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (Version 4.46)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2017

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (Version 4.44)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2016

SIERRA Multimechanics Module: Aria Thermal Theory Manual (Version 4.42)

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2018

Detecting Payload Attacks on Programmable Logic Controllers (PLCs)

Programmable logic controllers (PLCs) play critical roles in industrial control systems (ICS). Providing hardware peripherals and firmware support for control programs (i.e., a PLC’s “payload”) written in languages such as ladder logic, PLCs directly receive sensor readings and control ICS physical processes. An attacker with access to PLC development software (e.g., by compromising an engineering workstation) can modify the payload program and cause severe physical damages to the ICS. To protect critical ICS infrastructure, we propose to model runtime behaviors of legitimate PLC payload program and use runtime behavior monitoring in PLC firmware to detect payload attacks. By monitoring the I/O access patterns, network access patterns, as well as payload program timing characteristics, our proposed firmware-level detection mechanism can detect abnormal runtime behaviors of malicious PLC payload. Using our proof-of-concept implementation, we evaluate the memory and execution time overhead of implementing our proposed method and find that it is feasible to incorporate our method into existing PLC firmware. In addition, our evaluation results show that a wide variety of payload attacks can be effectively detected by our proposed approach. The proposed firmware-level payload attack detection scheme complements existing bumpin- the-wire solutions (e.g., external temporal-logic-based model checkers) in that it can detect payload attacks that violate realtime requirements of ICS operations and does not require any additional apparatus.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2019

Joint Optimization Scheme for the Planning and Operations of Shared Autonomous Electric Vehicle Fleets Serving Mobility on Demand

As the transportation sector undergoes three major transformations—electrification, shared/on-demand mobility, and automation—there are new challenges to analyzing the impacts of these trends on both the transportation system and the power sector. Most models that analyze the requirements of fleets of shared autonomous electric vehicles (SAEVs) operate at the scale of an urban region, or smaller. A quadratically constrained, quadratic programming problem is formulated, designed to model the requirements of SAEVs at a national scale. The size of the SAEV fleet, the necessary charging infrastructure, the fleet charging schedule, and the dispatch required to serve demand for trips in a region are treated as decision variables. By minimizing both the amortized cost of the fleet and chargers as well as the operational costs of charging, it is possible to explore the coupled interactions between system design and operation. To apply the model at a national scale, key complications about fleet operations are simplified; but a detailed agent-based regional simulation model to parameterize those simplifications is leveraged. Preliminary results are presented, finding that all mobility in the United States (U.S.) currently served by 276 million personally owned vehicles could be served by 12.5 million SAEVs at a cost of $\$ 0.27$/vehicle-mile or $ 0.18/passenger-mile. In conclusion, the energy requirements for this fleet would be 1142 GWh/day (8.5% of 2017 U.S. electricity demand) and the peak charging load 76.7 GW (11% of U.S. power peak). Several model sensitivities are explored, and it is found that sharing is a key factor in the analysis.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗