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DOE OSTI2025

Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions

Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Clathrate XI K 58 Zn 122 Sb 207 : A New Branch on the Clathrate Family Tree

Abstract The compositional screening of K‐Zn‐Sb ternary system aided by machine learning, rapid exploratory synthesis using KH salt‐like precursor and in situ powder X‐ray diffraction yielded a novel clathrate type XI K 58 Zn 122 Sb 207 . This clathrate consists of a 3D Zn‐Sb framework hosting K + ions inside polyhedral cages, some of which are reminiscent of known clathrate types while others are unique to this structure type. The complex non‐centrosymmetric structure in the tetragonal space group was solved by means of single crystal X‐ray diffraction as a 6‐component twin due to pseudocubic symmetry and further confirmed by high‐resolution synchrotron powder X‐ray diffraction and state‐of‐the‐art scanning transmission electron microscopy. The electron‐precise composition of this clathrate yields narrow‐gap p ‐type semiconductor with extraordinarily low thermal conductivity due to displacement or “rattling” of K cations inside oversized cages and as well as to twinning, stacking faults and antiphase boundary defects.

Cox, Tori↗

DOE OSTI2020

Clathrate XI K 58 Zn 122 Sb 207 : A New Branch on the Clathrate Family Tree

Cox, Tori↗

DOE OSTI2025

GrainPaint: A multi-scale diffusion-based generative model for microstructure reconstruction of large-scale objects

Simulation-based approaches to microstructure generation can suffer from a variety of limitations, such as high memory usage, long computational times, and difficulties in generating complex geometries. Generative machine learning models present a way around these issues, but they have previously been limited by the fixed size of their generation area. Here, we present a new microstructure generation methodology leveraging advances in inpainting using denoising diffusion models to overcome this generation area limitation. We show that microstructures generated with the presented methodology are statistically similar to grain structures generated with a kinetic Monte Carlo simulator, SPPARKS.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

ChemoGraph: Interactive Visual Exploration of the Chemical Space

Exploratory analysis of the chemical space is an important task in the field of cheminformatics. For example, in drug discovery research, chemists investigate sets of thousands of chemical compounds in order to identify novel yet structurally similar synthetic compounds to replace natural products. Manually exploring the chemical space inhabited by all possible molecules and chemical compounds is impractical, and therefore presents a challenge. To fill this gap, we present ChemoGraph, a novel visual analytics technique for interactively exploring related chemicals. In ChemoGraph, we formalize a chemical space as a hypergraph and apply novel machine learning models to compute related chemical compounds. It uses a database to find related compounds from a known space and a machine learning model to generate new ones, which helps enlarge the known space. Moreover, ChemoGraph highlights interactive features that support users in viewing, comparing, and organizing computationally identified related chemicals. With a drug discovery usage scenario and initial expert feedback from a case study, we demonstrate the usefulness of ChemoGraph.

chemical space exploration↗

DOE OSTI2021

Budget Constrained Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Adverse Outcomes for COVID-19 Patients

Background: Machine learning (ML) based risk stratification models of Electronic Health records (EHR) data may help to optimize treatment of COVID-19 patients, but are often limited by their lack of clinical interpretability and cost of laboratory tests. We develop a ML based tool for predicting adverse outcomes based on EHR data to optimize clinical utility under a given cost structure. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Healthcare in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. Methods: We tested performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality and the set of model features under a budget constraint was optimized via exhaustive search across all combinations of features. Results: The optimal sets of features for predicting ventilation under any budget constraint included demographics and comorbidities (DCM), basic metabolic panel (BMP), D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), CRP, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and procalcitonin and for mortality included DCM, BMP, complete blood count, D-dimer, LDH, CRP, BNP, procalcitonin and ferritin. Conclusions: This study presents a quick, accurate and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

Cadena Pico, JoseE.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Uncertainty-Guided Prediction Horizon of Phase-Resolved Ocean Wave Forecasting Under Data Sparsity: Experimental and Numerical Evaluation

Accurate short-term wave forecasting is critical for the safe and efficient operation of marine structures that rely on real-time, phase-resolved ocean wave information for control and monitoring purposes (e.g., digital twins). These systems often depend on environmental sensors (e.g., waverider buoys, wave-sensing LIDAR). Challenges arise when upstream sensor data are missing, sparse, or phase-shifted due to drift. This study investigates the performance of two machine learning models, time-series dense encoder (TiDE) and long short-term memory (LSTM), for forecasting phase-resolved ocean surface elevations under varying degrees of data degradation. We introduce the τ-trimming algorithm, which adapts the prediction horizon based on uncertainty thresholds derived from historical forecasts. Numerical wave tank (NWT) and wave basin experiments are used to benchmark model performance under short- and long-term data masking, spatially coarse sensor grids, and upstream phase shifts. Results show under a 50% probability of upstream data loss, the τ-trimmed TiDE model achieves a 46% reduction in error at the most upstream target, compared to 22% for LSTM. Furthermore, phase misalignment in upstream data introduces a near-linear increase in forecast error. Under moderate model settings, a ±3 s misalignment increases the mean absolute error by approximately 0.5 m, while the same error is accumulated at ±4 s using the more conservative approach. These findings inform the design of resilient, uncertainty-aware wave forecasting systems suited for realistic offshore sensing environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Domain knowledge-informed, process-mapping AI graph for designing Fe-based alloys

<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt;">Continuous improvement in efficiency of a power plant relies on designing materials for use at increasingly higher temperature and/or pressure, for 100,000s hours of operation. Due to complexity, non-linearity and high-dimensionality of the problem, traditional Machine Learning (ML) approaches require unreasonably large datasets for the data-driven model development. Science-based material and process engineering complements hard data with, sometimes soft and intuitive, empirical domain knowledge. Artificial Intelligence (AI) was used in this study to incorporate such knowledge into computational graph architecture (process-mimicking artificial neuron design, causal layer and graph structures, ensemble modeling of latent states) and learning procedures (variable transformation, fuzzy physics pre-training and freezing of deep layers, virtual microstructure representation, and adversarial multi-objective optimization). The first alloys design pathways suggested by the AI tool (pyroMind) passed a preliminary engineering review on soundness and transparency.</span>

Romanov, Vyacheslav↗

DOE OSTI2015

Continuous Distributed Representation of Biological Sequences for Deep Proteomics and Genomics

We introduce a new representation and feature extraction method for biological sequences. Named bio-vectors (BioVec) to refer to biological sequences in general with protein-vectors (ProtVec) for proteins (amino-acid sequences) and gene-vectors (GeneVec) for gene sequences, this representation can be widely used in applications of deep learning in proteomics and genomics. In the present paper, we focus on protein-vectors that can be utilized in a wide array of bioinformatics investigations such as family classification, protein visualization, structure prediction, disordered protein identification, and protein-protein interaction prediction. In this method, we adopt artificial neural network approaches and represent a protein sequence with a single dense n-dimensional vector. To evaluate this method, we apply it in classification of 324,018 protein sequences obtained from Swiss-Prot belonging to 7,027 protein families, where an average family classification accuracy of 93%±0.06% is obtained, outperforming existing family classification methods. In addition, we use ProtVec representation to predict disordered proteins from structured proteins. Two databases of disordered sequences are used: the DisProt database as well as a database featuring the disordered regions of nucleoporins rich with phenylalanine-glycine repeats (FG-Nups). Using support vector machine classifiers, FG-Nup sequences are distinguished from structured protein sequences found in Protein Data Bank (PDB) with a 99.8% accuracy, and unstructured DisProt sequences are differentiated from structured DisProt sequences with 100.0% accuracy. These results indicate that by only providing sequence data for various proteins into this model, accurate information about protein structure can be determined. Importantly, this model needs to be trained only once and can then be applied to extract a comprehensive set of information regarding proteins of interest. Moreover, this representation can be considered as pre-training for various applications of deep learning in bioinformatics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2023

De novo design of small beta barrel proteins

Small beta barrel proteins are attractive targets for computational design because of their considerable functional diversity despite their very small size (<70 amino acids). However, there are considerable challenges to designing such structures, and there has been little success thus far. Because of the small size, the hydrophobic core stabilizing the fold is necessarily very small, and the conformational strain of barrel closure can oppose folding; also intermolecular aggregation through free beta strand edges can compete with proper monomer folding. Here, we explore the de novo design of small beta barrel topologies using both Rosetta energy–based methods and deep learning approaches to design four small beta barrel folds: Src homology 3 (SH3) and oligonucleotide/oligosaccharide-binding (OB) topologies found in nature and five and six up-and-down-stranded barrels rarely if ever seen in nature. Both approaches yielded successful designs with high thermal stability and experimentally determined structures with less than 2.4 Å rmsd from the designed models. Using deep learning for backbone generation and Rosetta for sequence design yielded higher design success rates and increased structural diversity than Rosetta alone. The ability to design a large and structurally diverse set of small beta barrel proteins greatly increases the protein shape space available for designing binders to protein targets of interest.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Using Machine Learning to Analyze Factors Determining Cycle-to-Cycle Variation in a Spark-Ignited Gasoline Engine

In this work, we have applied a machine learning (ML) technique to provide insights into the causes of cycle-to-cycle variation (CCV) in a gasoline spark-ignited (SI) engine. The analysis was performed on a set of large eddy simulation (LES) calculations of a single cylinder of a four-cylinder port-fueled SI engine. The operating condition was stoichiometric, without significant knock, at a load of 16 bar brake mean effective pressure (BMEP), at an engine speed of 2500 revolutions per minute. A total of 123 cycles was simulated. Of these, 49 were run in sequence, while 74 were run in parallel. For the parallel approach, each cycle is initialized with its own synthetic turbulent field to generate CCV, as part of another work performed by us. In the current work, we used 3D information from all 123 cycles to compute flame topology and pre-ignition flow-field metrics. We then evaluated correlations between these metrics, and peak cylinder pressure (PCP) employing an ML technique called random forest. The computed metrics form the inputs to the random forest model, and PCP is the output. This model captures the effect of all inputs, as well as interactions between them owing to its decision-tree structure. The goal of this work is to demonstrate (as a first step) that ML models can implicitly learn complex relationships between pre-ignition flow-fields, flame shapes, and the eventual outcome of the cycle (whether a cycle will be a high or a low cycle).

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Active Learning for Scanning Probe Microscopy: From Gaussian Processes to Hypothesis Learning

Recent progress in machine learning methods and the emerging availability of programmable interfaces for scanning probe microscopes (SPMs) have propelled automated and autonomous microscopies to the forefront of attention of the scientific community. However, enabling automated microscopy requires the development of task-specific machine learning methods, understanding the interplay between physics discovery and machine learning, and fully defined discovery workflows. This, in turn, requires balancing the physical intuition and prior knowledge of the domain scientist with rewards that define experimental goals and machine learning algorithms that can translate these to specific experimental protocols. Here, we discuss the basic principles of Bayesian active learning and illustrate its applications for SPM. We progress from the Gaussian process as a simple data-driven method and Bayesian inference for physical models as an extension of physics-based functional fits to more complex deep kernel learning methods, structured Gaussian processes, and hypothesis learning. These frameworks allow for the use of prior data, the discovery of specific functionalities as encoded in spectral data, and exploration of physical laws manifesting during the experiment. Here, the discussed framework can be universally applied to all techniques combining imaging and spectroscopy, SPM methods, nanoindentation, electron microscopy and spectroscopy, and chemical imaging methods and can be particularly impactful for destructive or irreversible measurements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optical neural engine for solving scientific partial differential equations

Abstract Solving partial differential equations (PDEs) is the cornerstone of scientific research and development. Data-driven machine learning (ML) approaches are emerging to accelerate time-consuming and computation-intensive numerical simulations of PDEs. Although optical systems offer high-throughput and energy-efficient ML hardware, their demonstration for solving PDEs is limited. Here, we present an optical neural engine (ONE) architecture combining diffractive optical neural networks for Fourier space processing and optical crossbar structures for real space processing to solve time-dependent and time-independent PDEs in diverse disciplines, including Darcy flow equation, the magnetostatic Poisson’s equation in demagnetization, the Navier-Stokes equation in incompressible fluid, Maxwell’s equations in nanophotonic metasurfaces, and coupled PDEs in a multiphysics system. We numerically and experimentally demonstrate the capability of the ONE architecture, which not only leverages the advantages of high-performance dual-space processing for outperforming traditional PDE solvers and being comparable with state-of-the-art ML models but also can be implemented using optical computing hardware with unique features of low-energy and highly parallel constant-time processing irrespective of model scales and real-time reconfigurability for tackling multiple tasks with the same architecture. The demonstrated architecture offers a versatile and powerful platform for large-scale scientific and engineering computations.

Tang, Yingheng (ORCID:0009000153622546)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Exciting DeePMD: Learning excited-state energies, forces, and non-adiabatic couplings

We extend the DeePMD neural network architecture to predict electronic structure properties necessary to perform non-adiabatic dynamics simulations. While learning the excited state energies and forces follows a straightforward extension of the DeePMD approach for ground-state energies and forces, how to learn the map between the non-adiabatic coupling vectors (NACV) and the local chemical environment descriptors of DeePMD is less trivial. Most implementations of machine-learning-based non-adiabatic dynamics inherently approximate the NACVs, with an underlying assumption that the energy-difference-scaled NACVs are conservative fields. We overcome this approximation, implementing the method recently introduced by Richardson [J. Chem. Phys. 158, 011102 (2023)], which learns the symmetric dyad of the energy-difference-scaled NACV. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of our neural network architecture are demonstrated through the example of the methaniminium cation CH 2 NH 2 + .

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning accelerated prediction of Ce-based ternary compounds involving antagonistic pairs

The discovery of novel quantum materials within ternary phase spaces containing antagonistic pairs such as Fe with Bi, Pb, In, and Ag, presents significant challenges yet holds great potential. In this work, we investigate the stabilization of these immiscible pairs through the integration of Cerium (Ce), an abundant rare-earth and cost-effective element. By employing a machine learning (ML)-guided framework, particularly crystal graph convolutional neural networks (CGCNN), combined with first-principles calculations, we efficiently explore the composition/structure space and predict 9 stable and 37 metastable Ce-Fe-X (X=Bi, Pb, In, and Ag) ternary compounds. Our findings include the identification of multiple new stable and metastable phases, which are evaluated for their structural and energetic properties. These discoveries not only contribute to the advancement of quantum materials but also offer viable alternatives to critical rare earth elements, underscoring the importance of Ce-based intermetallic compounds in technological applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Sulfur-enhanced dynamics of coinage metal(111) surfaces: Step edges versus terraces as locations for metal-sulfur complex formation

The propensity of trace amounts of sulfur adsorbed on coinage metal(111) surfaces to dramatically enhance surface dynamics has been demonstrated by STM observations of accelerated 2D island decay for Cu and Ag. It is generally accepted that this enhancement is due to the formation of adsorbed metal-sulfur complexes, which facilitate surface mass transport of the metal. These complexes were originally proposed to form on terraces following the extraction of metal atoms from step edges and subsequent combination with sulfur on the terraces. However, even when thermodynamically feasible, this mechanism may not be kinetically viable for some complexes due to limited coupling of the complex concentration to the surface diffusion flux of metal atoms. Focusing on the case of Cu, we assess various scenarios where complexes are formed either on terraces or instead directly at step edges, the latter being a new paradigm. In this work, a new pathway is proposed for the formation on terraces. A rich variety of structures incorporating S at step edges exist, which could provide a viable source for complexes, at least from a thermodynamic perspective. However, it is necessary to also assess the activation barrier for complex formation and detachment from step edges. This is facilitated by the nudged-elastic-band analysis of the minimum energy path for this process utilizing machine-learning derived potentials based on density functional theory energetics for the metal-sulfur system.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Overcoming the field-of-view to diameter trade-off in microendoscopy via computational optrode-array microscopy

High-resolution microscopy of deep tissue with large field-of-view (FOV) is critical for elucidating organization of cellular structures in plant biology. Microscopy with an implanted probe offers an effective solution. However, there exists a fundamental trade-off between the FOV and probe diameter arising from aberrations inherent in conventional imaging optics (typically, FOV < 30% of diameter). Here, we demonstrate the use of microfabricated non-imaging probes (optrodes) that when combined with a trained machine-learning algorithm is able to achieve FOV of 1x to 5x the probe diameter. Further increase in FOV is achieved by using multiple optrodes in parallel. With a 1 × 2 optrode array, we demonstrate imaging of fluorescent beads (including 30 FPS video), stained plant stem sections and stained living stems. Our demonstration lays the foundation for fast, high-resolution microscopy with large FOV in deep tissue via microfabricated non-imaging probes and advanced machine learning.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Support Vector Machines for Estimating Decision Boundaries with Numerical Simulations

Many engineering design problems can be formulated as decisions between two possible options. This is the case, for example, when a quantity of interest must be maintained below or above some threshold. The threshold thereby determines which input parameters lead to which option, and creates a boundary between the two options known as the decision boundary. This report details a machine learning approach for estimating decision boundaries, based on support vector machines (SVMs), that is amenable to large scale computational simulations. Because it is computationally expensive to evaluate each training sample, the approach iteratively estimates the decision boundary in a manner that requires relatively few training samples to glean useful estimates. The approach is then demonstrated on three example problems from structural mechanics and heat transport.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗