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Evaluating an Automated Approach for Monitoring Forest Disturbances in the Pacific Northwest from Logging, Fire and Insect Outbreaks with Landsat Time Series Data

Forests are the largest aboveground sink for atmospheric carbon (C), and understanding how they change through time is critical to reduce our C-cycle uncertainties. We investigated a strong decline in Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) from 1982 to 1991 in Pacific Northwest forests, observed with the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration's (NOAA) series of Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometers (AVHRRs). To understand the causal factors of this decline, we evaluated an automated classification method developed for Landsat time series stacks (LTSS) to map forest change. This method included: (1) multiple disturbance index thresholds; and (2) a spectral trajectory-based image analysis with multiple confidence thresholds. We produced 48 maps and verified their accuracy with air photos, monitoring trends in burn severity data and insect aerial detection survey data. Area-based accuracy estimates for change in forest cover resulted in producer's and user's accuracies of 0.21 +/- 0.06 to 0.38 +/- 0.05 for insect disturbance, 0.23 +/- 0.07 to 1 +/- 0 for burned area and 0.74 +/- 0.03 to 0.76 +/- 0.03 for logging. We believe that accuracy was low for insect disturbance because air photo reference data were temporally sparse, hence missing some outbreaks, and the annual anniversary time step is not dense enough to track defoliation and progressive stand mortality. Producer's and user's accuracy for burned area was low due to the temporally abrupt nature of fire and harvest with a similar response of spectral indices between the disturbance index and normalized burn ratio. We conclude that the spectral trajectory approach also captures multi-year stress that could be caused by climate, acid deposition, pathogens, partial harvest, thinning, etc. Our study focused on understanding the transferability of previously successful methods to new ecosystems and found that this automated method does not perform with the same accuracy in Pacific Northwest forests. Using a robust accuracy assessment, we demonstrate the difficulty of transferring change attribution methods to other ecosystems, which has implications for the development of automated detection/attribution approaches. Widespread disturbance was found within AVHRR-negative anomalies, but identifying causal factors in LTSS with adequate mapping accuracy for fire and insects proved to be elusive. Our results provide a background framework for future studies to improve methods for the accuracy assessment of automated LTSS classifications.

Landsat↗

A Global Climatology of Extratropical Transition Part I: Characteristics Across Basins

The authors present a global climatology of tropical cyclones (TCs) that undergo extratropical transition (ET). ET is objectively defined based on a TC's trajectory through the cyclone phase space (CPS), which is calculated using storm tracks from 1979-2017 best-track data and geopotential height fields from reanalysis datasets. Two reanalyses are used and compared for this purpose, the Japanese 55-year Reanalysis and the ECMWF Interim Reanalysis. The results are used to study the seasonal and geographical distributions of storms undergoing ET and inter-basin differences in the statistics of ET occurrence. About 50% of all TCs in the North Atlantic and the Western North Pacific undergo ET. In the southern hemisphere, ET fractions range from about 20% in the South Indian Ocean and the Australian region to 45% in the South Pacific. In the majority of ETs, TCs become thermally asymmetric before forming a cold core. However, a substantial fraction of TCs takes the reverse pathway, developing a cold core before becoming thermally asymmetric. This pathway is most common in the Eastern North Pacific and the North Atlantic. Different ET pathways can be linked to different geographical trajectories and environmental settings. In ETs over warmer sea-surface temperatures, TCs tend to lose their thermal symmetry while still maintaining a warm core. Landfalls by TCs undergoing ET occur 3-4 times per year in the North Atlantic and 7-10 times per year in the Western North Pacific, while coastal regions in the Australian region are affected once every 1-2 years.

Melanie Bieli↗

A Study on the Potential Applications of Satellite Data in Air Quality Monitoring and Forecasting

In this study we explore the potential applications of MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) -like satellite sensors in air quality research for some Asian regions. The MODIS aerosol optical thickness (AOT), NCEP global reanalysis meteorological data, and daily surface PM(sub 10) concentrations over China and Thailand from 2001 to 2009 were analyzed using simple and multiple regression models. The AOT-PM(sub 10) correlation demonstrates substantial seasonal and regional difference, likely reflecting variations in aerosol composition and atmospheric conditions, Meteorological factors, particularly relative humidity, were found to influence the AOT-PM(sub 10) relationship. Their inclusion in regression models leads to more accurate assessment of PM(sub 10) from space borne observations. We further introduced a simple method for employing the satellite data to empirically forecast surface particulate pollution, In general, AOT from the previous day (day 0) is used as a predicator variable, along with the forecasted meteorology for the following day (day 1), to predict the PM(sub 10) level for day 1. The contribution of regional transport is represented by backward trajectories combined with AOT. This method was evaluated through PM(sub 10) hindcasts for 2008-2009, using ohservations from 2005 to 2007 as a training data set to obtain model coefficients. For five big Chinese cities, over 50% of the hindcasts have percentage error less than or equal to 30%. Similar performance was achieved for cities in northern Thailand. The MODIS AOT data are responsible for at least part of the demonstrated forecasting skill. This method can be easily adapted for other regions, but is probably most useful for those having sparse ground monitoring networks or no access to sophisticated deterministic models. We also highlight several existing issues, including some inherent to a regression-based approach as exemplified by a case study for Beijing, Further studies will be necessa1Y before satellite data can see more extensive applications in the operational air quality monitoring and forecasting.

Li, Can↗

Similarity Metric for Data Optimization and Efficient Training of Reactive Machine Learning Force Fields for Hydrocarbon Radiolysis

Radiolysis is a common approach to sterilize polymers, chemically modify them for upcycling, and accelerate their decomposition for recycling purposes. Reactive molecular dynamics (MD) simulations provide a powerful tool to generate atomic-level trajectories of the reactive processes and quantify radiolytic chemical degradation pathways. For this, machine learning (ML) surrogate models for reactive force fields with quantum mechanical accuracy are now widely used, which require ML training data sets that can provide information on atomic environments for target chemical systems. However, radiolysis chemistry can be highly complex and diverse, which poses significant challenges for generating training data to parametrize ML models. In this regard, we developed a method for optimizing the training data set using a cosine similarity metric to help guide training set selection for radiolysis of polyethylene, a model hydrocarbon polymer, as well as to enhance the transferability of our reactive ML force field (MLFF) to a variety of molecular and polymeric systems. Our approach performs atom-by-atom comparisons between local atomic environments to pinpoint important data points associated with rare and localized events, such as radiolysis damage within structures. We apply this approach to train the Chebyshev Interaction Model for Efficient Simulation (ChIMES) MLFF model, which expresses the atomic interaction potentials in terms of linear combinations of many-body Chebyshev polynomials. We first show that our method can reduce our training set size by ∼70% while improving overall accuracy compared to more standard MD model fitting approaches. We then validate our optimum model against diverse hydrocarbon simulation data, including simple alkanes and systems with unsaturated carbon bonds, over a wide range of thermodynamic conditions. Finally, we use our ChIMES model to perform MD simulations of radiolytic damage with large-scale systems that help avoid system size effects. Overall, our approach yields an MD force field that retains most of the accuracy of the underlying quantum method while yielding many orders of improvement in computational efficiency. In conclusion, our efforts will have impact on future hydrocarbon polymer radiolysis studies, where the chemical details of the polymer–radiation interactions can have a strong effect on the resulting products observed in experiments.

Hydrocarbons↗

Rotor tip vortex geometry measurements using the wide-field shadowgraph technique

Rotor tip vortex geometry data have been acquired using the wide-field shadowgraph technique. Shadowgraphs were taken of the wakes of two model main-rotor systems in hover. These shadowgraphs provided detailed tip vortex trajectories from which axial and radial vortex coordinates were measured. Using these coordinates, prescribed-wake parameters were determined and input into a hover-performance prediction code. The resultant predictions were compared with experimental performance data to help assess the capabilities of this code. Another result of the experimental work was the development of a method to predict the visibility of rotor tip vortices on shadowgraphs. Using this method, the ability of the shadowgraph technique to visualize tip vortices in the rotor wake was quantified.

Norman, T. R.↗

Utah FORGE: 2024 Discrete Fracture Network Model Data

The Utah FORGE 2024 Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) Model dataset provides a set of files representing discrete fracture network modeling for the FORGE site near Milford, Utah. The dataset includes four distinct DFN model file sets, each corresponding to different time frames and modeling approaches in 2024. These models characterize both natural and induced fractures in the geothermal reservoir, which consists of crystalline granitic and metamorphic rock approximately 8,000 feet below the ground surface. The dataset includes a reference DFN model from February 2024 that incorporates planar fractures and well trajectories, as well as upscaled permeability, porosity, compressibility, and storage values on specified grids. Additionally, there are models based on new microseismic (MEQ) data from May and July 2024, including fracture planes fitted to the latest MEQ catalog datasets, tensile fractures from hydraulic stimulation, and an alternative connected DFN for modeling purposes. Coordinate data is provided in both global and local frames, with detailed instructions on the transformations used to align with principal stress orientations. The dataset also includes notes and calculation files for estimating fracture sizes and differences between various fracture sets. There are subfolders for Global Coordinates and Local Coordinates. To move from the global to the local coordinate frame, fractures and wells were a) rotated 20 degrees counterclockwise looking down about the global point (335376.400482041, 4263189.99998761, 250.093546450195) to better align with the principal stresses; and b) translated by (-335408.68, -4263010.9, 1150). Upscaled permeability values using the _XYZ suffix show directions with respect to the global XYZ coordinate frame, while those using the _IJK suffix are aligned with local coordinate frame.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Search for antimatter in primary cosmic rays.

Data from two flights of a new superconducting magnetic spectrometer are reported. This instrument was capable of a direct matter-antimatter separation in the cosmic rays. Antimatter events would appear in the spectrometer as trajectories which curve in the opposite direction to common matter, because of their negative charge. A brief description of the equipment and of the characteristics of the instrument is presented, along with the data processing techniques used. A new upper limit on the amount of antimatter in primary cosmic rays has been established. The limits are considerably lower than those for any previous experiment.

Buffington, A.↗

Physics‐based iterative reconstruction for dual‐source and flying focal spot computed tomography

Purpose For single‐source helical Computed Tomography (CT), both Filtered‐Back Projection (FBP) and statistical iterative reconstruction have been investigated. However, for dual‐source CT with flying focal spot (DS‐FFS CT), a statistical iterative reconstruction that accurately models the scanner geometry and acquisition physics remains unknown to researchers. Therefore, our purpose is to present a novel physics‐based iterative reconstruction method for DS‐FFS CT and assess its image quality. Methods Our algorithm uses precise physics models to reconstruct from the native cone‐beam geometry and interleaved dual‐source helical trajectory of a DS‐FFS CT. To do so, we construct a noise physics model to represent data acquisition noise and a prior image model to represent image noise and texture. In addition, we design forward system models to compute the locations of deflected focal spots, the dimension, and sensitivity of voxels and detector units, as well as the length of intersection between x‐rays and voxels. The forward system models further represent the coordinated movement between the dual sources by computing their x‐ray coverage gaps and overlaps at an arbitrary helical pitch. With the above models, we reconstruct images by an advanced Consensus Equilibrium (CE) numerical method to compute the maximum a posteriori estimate to a joint optimization problem that simultaneously fits all models. Results We compared our reconstruction with Siemens ADMIRE, which is the clinical standard hybrid iterative reconstruction (IR) method for DS‐FFS CT, in terms of spatial resolution, noise profile, and image artifacts through both phantoms and clinical scan datasets. Experiments show that our reconstruction has a higher spatial resolution, with a Task‐Based Modulation Transfer Function (MTF task ) consistently higher than the clinical standard hybrid IR. In addition, our reconstruction shows a reduced magnitude of image undersampling artifacts than the clinical standard. Conclusions By modeling a precise geometry and avoiding data rebinning or interpolation, our physics‐based reconstruction achieves a higher spatial resolution and fewer image artifacts with smaller magnitude than the clinical standard hybrid IR.

Wang, Xiao↗

External Beam Radiation Therapy or Brachytherapy With or Without Short-course Neoadjuvant Androgen Deprivation Therapy: Results of a Multicenter, Prospective Study of Quality of Life

Purpose: The long-term effects of neoadjuvant androgen deprivation therapy (NADT) with radiation therapy on participant-reported health-related quality of life (HRQOL) have not been characterized in prospective multicenter studies. We evaluated HRQOL for 2 years among participants undergoing radiation therapy (RT) with or without NADT for newly diagnosed, early-stage prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: We analyzed longitudinal cohort data from the Prostate Cancer Outcomes and Satisfaction with Treatment Quality Assessment Consortium to ascertain the HRQOL trajectory of men receiving NADT with external beam RT (EBRT) or brachytherapy. HRQOL was measured using the expanded prostate cancer index composite 26-item questionnaire at 2, 6, 12, and 24 months after the initiation of NADT. We used the χ{sup 2} or Fisher exact test to compare the shift in percentages between groups that did or did not receive NADT. Analyses were conducted at the 2-sided 5% significance level. Results: For subjects receiving EBRT, questions regarding the ability to have an erection, ability to reach an orgasm, quality of erections, frequency of erections, ability to function sexually, and lack of energy were in a significantly worse dichotomized category for the patients receiving NADT. Comparing the baseline versus 24-month outcomes, 24%, 23%, and 30% of participants receiving EBRT plus NADT shifted to the worse dichotomized category for the ability to reach an orgasm, quality of erections, and ability to function sexually compared with 14%, 13%, and 16% in the EBRT group, respectively. Conclusions: Compared with baseline, at 2 years, participants receiving NADT plus EBRT compared with EBRT alone had worse HRQOL, as measured by the ability to reach orgasm, quality of erections, and ability to function sexually. However, no difference was found in the ability to have an erection, frequency of erections, overall sexual function, hot flashes, breast tenderness/enlargement, depression, lack of energy, or change in body weight. The improved survival in intermediate- and high-risk patients receiving NADT and EBRT necessitates pretreatment counseling of the HRQOL effect of NADT and EBRT.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

ISiCLE: A Quantum Chemistry Pipeline for Establishing in Silico Collision Cross Section Libraries

High throughput, comprehensive, and confident identifications of metabolites and other chemicals in biological and envi-ronmental samples will revolutionize our understanding of the role of these intriguing and chemically diverse molecules in biological systems. Despite recent technological advances, a metabolomics study still results in the detection of a dispropor-tionate number of features than cannot be confidently assigned to a chemical structure. This inadequacy is driven by the sin-gle most significant limitation in metabolomics: the reliance on reference libraries constructed through the analysis of au-thentic reference chemicals and the limited commercial availability of these compounds. To this end, we have developed the in silico chemical library engine (ISiCLE), a high-performance computing-friendly cheminformatics workflow for generating chemical properties. In the instantiation described here, we predict probable three-dimensional molecular conformers (i.e. conformational isomers) using chemical identifiers as input, from which collision cross sections (CCS) are derived. The ap-proach employs state-of-the-art first-principles simulation, distinguished by use of molecular dynamics, quantum chemistry, and ion mobility calculations to generate predictions, all without training data. Importantly, optimization of ISiCLE includ-ed a refactoring of the popular MOBCAL code for trajectory-based mobility calculations, improving its computational effi-ciency by over two orders of magnitude. Calculated CCS values were validated against 1,983 experimental CCS values and compared to previously reported CCS calculation approaches. Average CCS calculation absolute error is 3.2% with standard deviation 3.1%. An online database is introduced for sharing both calculated and experimental CCS values (metabolom-ics.pnnl.gov), initially including a CCS library with over 0.8M entries. Finally, three successful applications of molecule characterization using calculated CCS are described, including the identification of an environmental degradation product, the separation of molecular isomers, and the decoding of complex blinded mixtures of exposure chemicals. This work represents a promising method to address the limitations of small molecule identification, and offers alternatives to standards-based chemical identification amenable to high-performance computation.

metabolomics, standards-free, collision cross sect↗

SU-D-18A-04: Quantifying the Ability of Tumor Tracking to Spare Normal Tissue

Purpose: Tumor tracking allows for smaller tissue volumes to be treated, potentially reducing normal tissue damage. However, tumor tracking is a more complex treatment and has little benefit in some scenarios. Here we quantify the benefit of tumor tracking for a range of patients by estimating the dose of radiation to organs at risk and the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) for both standard and tracking treatment plans. This comparison is performed using both patient 4DCT data and extended Cardiac-Torso (XCAT) digital phantoms. Methods: We use 4DCT data for 10 patients. Additionally, we generate digital phantoms with motion derived from measured patient long tumor trajectories to compare standard and tracking treatment plans. The standard treatment is based on the average intensity projection (AIP) of 4DCT images taken over a breath cycle. The tracking treatment is based on doses calculated on images representing the anatomy at each time point. It is assumed that there are no errors in tracking the target. The NTCP values are calculated based on RTOG guidelines. Results: The mean reduction in the mean dose delivered was 5.5% to the lungs (from 7.3 Gy to 6.9 Gy) and 4.0% to the heart (from 12.5 Gy to 12.0 Gy). The mean reduction in the max dose delivered was 13% to the spinal cord (from 27.6 Gy to 24.0 Gy), 2.5% to the carina (from 31.7 Gy to 30.9 Gy), and 15% to the esophagus (from 69.6 Gy to 58.9 Gy). The mean reduction in the probability of 2nd degree radiation pneumonitis (RP) was 8.7% (3.1% to 2.8%) and the mean reduction in the effective volume was 6.8% (10.8% to 10.2%). Conclusions: Tumor tracking has the potential to reduce irradiation of organs at risk, and consequentially reduce the normal tissue complication probability. The benefits vary based on the clinical scenario. This study is supported by Varian Medical Systems, Inc.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

SARS-CoV2 Protein-Ligand Simulation Dataset: Layer 2 (Lowest Temperature Extracted Protein Coordinate Trajectories)

Protein-only trajectories of the lowest-temperature window (310K) extracted from temperature replica-exchange molecular dynamics simulations of 23 different SARS CoV-2 systems, including S Protein ACE2-receptor binding-domain, MPro, PLPro, NSP3 ADRP (X-domain/macrodomain/phosphatase), NSP15 (endoribonuclease), NSP9, NSP10, NSP16, and N-protein N-terminus. Systems were prepared with charmm-gui and simulated using the GROMACS simulation software suite. Trajectories are provided in compressed dcd format with accompanying coordinate/topology files in pdb and psf formats. This data supplements the data release, DOI: 10.13139/OLCF/1650650 ('SARS-CoV2 Protein-Ligand Simulation Dataset: Layer 1 (Simulation Initial Conditions and Parameters)')

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

ISiCLE: A Quantum Chemistry Pipeline for Establishing in Silico Collision Cross Section Libraries

High throughput, comprehensive, and confident identifications of metabolites and other chemicals in biological and envi-ronmental samples will revolutionize our understanding of the role of these intriguing and chemically diverse molecules in biological systems. Despite recent technological advances, a metabolomics study still results in the detection of a dispropor-tionate number of features than cannot be confidently assigned to a chemical structure. This inadequacy is driven by the sin-gle most significant limitation in metabolomics: the reliance on reference libraries constructed through the analysis of au-thentic reference chemicals and the limited commercial availability of these compounds. To this end, we have developed the in silico chemical library engine (ISiCLE), a high-performance computing-friendly cheminformatics workflow for generating chemical properties. In the instantiation described here, we predict probable three-dimensional molecular conformers (i.e. conformational isomers) using chemical identifiers as input, from which collision cross sections (CCS) are derived. The ap-proach employs state-of-the-art first-principles simulation, distinguished by use of molecular dynamics, quantum chemistry, and ion mobility calculations to generate predictions, all without training data. Importantly, optimization of ISiCLE includ-ed a refactoring of the popular MOBCAL code for trajectory-based mobility calculations, improving its computational effi-ciency by over two orders of magnitude. Calculated CCS values were validated against 1,983 experimental CCS values and compared to previously reported CCS calculation approaches. Average CCS calculation absolute error is 3.2% with standard deviation 3.1%. An online database is introduced for sharing both calculated and experimental CCS values (metabolom-ics.pnnl.gov), initially including a CCS library with over 0.8M entries. Finally, three successful applications of molecule characterization using calculated CCS are described, including the identification of an environmental degradation product, the separation of molecular isomers, and the decoding of complex blinded mixtures of exposure chemicals. This work represents a promising method to address the limitations of small molecule identification, and offers alternatives to standards-based chemical identification amenable to high-performance computation.

Colby, Sean M↗

Score-based deterministic density sampling

We propose a deterministic sampling framework using Score-Based Transport Modeling for sampling an unnormalized target density π given only its score ∇ log π. Our method approximates the Wasserstein gradient flow on KL($f_t$∥π) by learning the time-varying score ∇ log $f_t$ on the fly using score matching. While having the same marginal distribution as Langevin dynamics, our method produces smooth deterministic trajectories, resulting in monotone noise-free convergence. We prove that our method dissipates relative entropy at the same rate as the exact gradient flow, provided sufficient training. Numerical experiments validate our theoretical findings: our method converges at the optimal rate, has smooth trajectories, and is often more sample efficient than its stochastic counterpart. Experiments on high-dimensional image data show that our method produces high-quality generations in as few as 15 steps and exhibits natural exploratory behavior. The memory and runtime scale linearly in the sample size.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Analysis procedure for radar observations

Based on the assumption that the ionized column left behind a moving meteroroid is underdense, it is shown that radar observations of the column yield resonable aproximations to the meteoriod's speed and trajectory. The principles and procedures for finding a meteor's position and vector velocity from the observed data are also presented.

Southworth, R. B.↗

Earth orbit navigation study. Volume 2: System evaluation

An overall systems evaluation was made of five candidate navigation systems in support of earth orbit missions. The five systems were horizon sensor system, unkown landmark tracking system, ground transponder system, manned space flight network, and tracking and data relay satellite system. Two reference missions were chosen: a low earth orbit mission and a transfer trajectory mission from low earth orbit to geosynchronous orbit. The specific areas addressed in the evaluation were performance, multifunction utilization, system mechanization, and cost.

Source record↗

First generation atmospheric probes (10-BARS) for Uranus and Neptune

The feasibility of atmospheric entry probe missions to Uranus and Neptune is studied, and preliminary estimates of missions parameters are presented. Most of the study results are applicable, with only minor modifications, to Uranus-Neptune entry probes included on any type of outer planet mission. Trajectory dynamics is discussed first because it imposes some important constraints upon the total time available for data transmission, which in turn determines the descent rate. This last quantity provides important information for the design of the scientific payload.

Sullivan, R. J.↗

A two-dimensional, iterative solution for the jet flap

A solution is presented for the jet-flapped wing in two dimensions. The main flow is assumed to be inviscid and incompressible. The flow inside the jet is considered irrotational and the upper and lower boundaries between the jet and free stream are assumed to behave as vortex sheets which allow no mixing. The solution is found to be in satisfactory agreement with two dimensional experimental results and other theoretical work for intermediate values of momentum coefficient, but the regions of agreement vary with jet exit angle. At small values of momentum coefficient, the trajectory for the jet, as computed by this method, has more penetration than that of other available data, while at high values of moment coefficient this solution results in less penetration of the jet into the main flow.

Herold, A. C.↗