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Gamma-ray blazar spectra with H.E.S.S. II mono analysis: The case of PKS 2155$-$304 and PG 1553+113

In this paper, the addition of a 28 m Cherenkov telescope (CT5) to the H.E.S.S. array extended the experiment’s sensitivityto lower energies. The lowest energy threshold is obtained using monoscopic analysis of data taken with CT5, providing access to gamma-ray energies below 100 GeV for small zenith angle observations. Such an extension of the instrument’s energy range is particularly beneficial for studies of active galactic nuclei with soft spectra, as expected for those at a redshift ≥0.5. The high-frequency peaked BL Lac objects PKS 2155–304 (z = 0.116) and PG 1553+113 (0.43 < z < 0.58) are among the brightest objects in the gamma-ray sky, both showing clear signatures of gamma-ray absorption at E > 100 GeV interpreted as being due to interactions with the extragalactic background light (EBL). Furthermore, the aims of this work are twofold: to demonstrate the monoscopic analysis of CT5 data with a low energy threshold, and to obtain accurate measurements of the spectral energy distributions (SED) of PKS 2155–304 and PG 1553+113 near their SED peaks at energies ≈100 GeV. Multiple observational campaigns of PKS 2155–304 and PG 1553+113 were conducted during 2013 and 2014 using the full H.E.S.S. II instrument (CT1–5). A monoscopic analysis of the data taken with the new CT5 telescope was developed along with an investigation into the systematic uncertainties on the spectral parameters which are derived from this analysis. As a result, using the data from CT5, the energy spectra of PKS 2155–304 and PG 1553+113 were reconstructed down to conservative threshold energies of 80 GeV for PKS 2155–304, which transits near zenith, and 110 GeV for the more northern PG 1553+113. The measured spectra, well fitted in both cases by a log-parabola spectral model (with a 5.0σ statistical preference for non-zero curvature for PKS 2155–304 and 4.5σ for PG 1553+113), were found consistent with spectra derived from contemporaneous Fermi-LAT data, indicating a sharp break in the observed spectra of both sources at E ≈ 100 GeV. When corrected for EBL absorption, the intrinsic H.E.S.S. II mono and Fermi-LAT spectrum of PKS 2155–304 was found to show significant curvature. For PG 1553+113, however, no significant detection of curvature in the intrinsic spectrum could be found within statistical and systematic uncertainties.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Multiwavelength analysis of Fermi -LAT blazars with high-significance periodicity: detection of a long-term rising emission in PG 1553+113

ABSTRACT Blazars display variable emission across the entire electromagnetic spectrum, with time-scales that can range from a few minutes to several years. Our recent work has shown that a sample of five blazars exhibit hints of periodicity with a global significance ${\gtrsim}2\, \sigma$ at γ-ray energies, in the range of 0.1 GeV < E < 800 GeV. In this work, we study their multiwavelength emission, covering the X-ray, ultraviolet, optical, and radio bands. We show that three of these blazars present similar periodic patterns in the optical and radio bands. Additionally, fluxes in the different bands of the five blazars are correlated, suggesting a co-spatial origin. Moreover, we detect a long-term (≈10 yr) rising trend in the light curves of PG 1553+113, and we use it to infer possible constraints on the binary black hole hypothesis.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Periodic Gamma-Ray Modulation of the Blazar PG 1553+113 Confirmed by Fermi-LAT and Multiwavelength Observations

A 2.1 yr periodic oscillation of the gamma-ray flux from the blazar PG 1553+113 has previously been tentatively identified in ∼7 yr of data from the Fermi Large Area Telescope. After 15 yr of Fermi sky-survey observations, doubling the total time range, we report >7 cycle gamma-ray modulation with an estimated significance of 4σ against stochastic red noise. Independent determinations of oscillation period and phase in the earlier and the new data are in close agreement (chance probability <0.01). Pulse timing over the full light curve is also consistent with a coherent periodicity. Multiwavelength new data from Swift X-Ray Telescope, Burst Alert Telescope, and UVOT, and from KAIT, Catalina Sky Survey, All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae, and Owens Valley Radio Observatory ground-based observatories as well as archival Rossi X-Ray Timing Explorer satellite-All Sky Monitor data, published optical data of Tuorla, and optical historical Harvard plates data are included in our work. Optical and radio light curves show clear correlations with the gamma-ray modulation, possibly with a nonconstant time lag for the radio flux. We interpret the gamma-ray periodicity as possibly arising from a pulsational accretion flow in a sub-parsec binary supermassive black hole system of elevated mass ratio, with orbital modulation of the supplied material and energy in the jet. Other astrophysical scenarios introduced include instabilities, disk and jet precession, rotation or nutation, and perturbations by massive stars or intermediate-mass black holes in polar orbit.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Minimizing Oxygen Permeability in Chitin/Cellulose Nanomaterial Coatings by Tuning Chitin Deacetylation

The demand for packaging materials with low gas permeabilities is increasing, but commonly used petroleum-derived single-use plastics are not renewable, biodegradable, or easy to recycle. Nanomaterials composed of chitin and cellulose, which are abundant in nature, have high crystallinities and low oxygen permeabilities (OP), providing a viable alternative. In this work, we explore how deacetylation conditions of crab shell chitin can be used to tune the charge and size of resulting chitin nanowhiskers (ChNWs) and the resulting OP of layered film structures. Three deacetylation factors, the concentration of sodium hydroxide (%NaOH), temperature (T), and reaction time, were explored using a three-factor three-level Taguchi design with an orthogonal array. Furthermore, the resulting ChNW suspensions were sequentially spray-coated with suspensions of cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs) onto cellulose acetate (CA) films to form a multilayer structure. We show that ChNWs prepared under more aggressive deacetylation conditions inside the original orthogonal array (higher %NaOH, T, and time) had shorter lengths but the surface charge was significantly influenced only by more aggressive deacetylation outside of the original design conditions. With only ~10% decrease in the ultimate tensile strength and no significant loss in failure strain, the ChNW-CNC coating resulted in ~20% decrease in WVTR in comparison to uncoated CA films. The optimization of process conditions resulted in CA-ChNW-CNC films with a 91-99% decrease in OP (132-16.7 cm 3 ∙μm/m 2 /day/kPa versus 1553 cm3∙μm/m2/day/kPa for uncoated CA).

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Machine Learning Based Resilience Testing of an Address Randomization Cyber Defense

Moving target defenses (MTDs) are widely used as an active defense strategy for thwarting cyberattacks on cyber-physical systems by increasing diversity of software and network paths. Recently, machine Learning (ML) and deep Learning (DL) models have been demonstrated to defeat some of the cyber defenses by learning attack detection patterns and defense strategies. It raises concerns about the susceptibility of MTD to ML and DL methods. Here, in this article, we analyze the effectiveness of ML and DL models when it comes to deciphering MTD methods and ultimately evade MTD-based protections in real-time systems. Specifically, we consider a MTD algorithm that periodically randomizes address assignments within the MIL-STD-1553 protocol—a military standard serial data bus. Two ML and DL-based tasks are performed on MIL-STD-1553 protocol to measure the effectiveness of the learning models in deciphering the MTD algorithm: 1) determining whether there is an address assignments change i.e., whether the given system employs a MTD protocol and if it does 2) predicting the future address assignments. The supervised learning models (random forest and k-nearest neighbors) effectively detected the address assignment changes and classified whether the given system is equipped with a specified MTD protocol. On the other hand, the unsupervised learning model (K-means) was significantly less effective. The DL model (long short-term memory) was able to predict the future addresses with varied effectiveness based on MTD algorithm's settings.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

A Sterically Biased Unsymmetrical Azobenzene Derivative: Synthesis, Molecular Structure, and 15N NMR Spectroscopic Analysis of (E)-1-(2,6-Diisopropylphenyl)-2-phenyldiazine

We synthesized and characterized the title compound, (E)-1-(2,6-diisopropylphenyl)-2-phenyldiazine (I) using a combination of 1 H, 13 C, and 15 N NMR spectroscopy, infrared and UV/Vis spectroscopy, X-ray crystallography, and GC mass spectrometry. The solid-state structure is also reported. The unsymmetric azobenzene crystallizes in the space group P2 1 /c with unit cell parameters a = 8.001(7) Å, b = 17.827(16) Å, c = 11.129(10) Å, β = 101.960(10)°, V = 1553(2) Å 3 , Z = 4, D calc = 1.139 g/cm 3 .

15N NMR↗

Heteroleptic Four-Coordinate Tris(oxazolinyl)borato Iron(II) Compounds

The reaction of FeBr 2 and 1 equiv of thallium tris(4,4-dimethyl-2-oxazolinyl)phenylborate (TlTo M ) in THF provides To M FeBr ( 1 ), whereas FeBr 2 and 2 equiv of TlTo M react to give (To M ) 2 Fe ( 2 ). Two ν CN bands at 1604 and 1548 cm –1 suggested bidentate coordination of To M to iron in 2 . Homoleptic 2 and FeBr 2 react in THF overnight through an unusual ligand exchange process to give compound 1 , which is apparently the thermodynamic product. The salt metathesis reaction of 1 and KCH 2 Ph affords To M FeCH 2 Ph ( 3 ). The effective magnetic moments of compounds 1–3 range from 4.9 to 5.4 μ B , and these values are consistent with high-spin iron(II) (S = 2). A single 1 H NMR signal assigned to the methyl groups of the ToM ligand suggested tridentate coordination of the To M ligand to iron in 1 and 3 . X-ray crystallography studies of 1–3 establish their structure as four-coordinated tetrahedral iron complexes. To M FeBn and CO (1 atm) react to afford isolable To M Fe{C(=O)Bn}(CO) 2 ( 4 ) as a yellow solid. Complex 4 is diamagnetic (S = 0), and the three distinct methyl signals in the 1 H NMR spectrum are consistent with a six-coordinate, C s -symmetric species. This assignment is supported by its IR spectrum, which revealed intense bands at 2004 and 1935 cm –1 (symmetric and asymmetric ν CO ), at 1680 and 1662 cm –1 (acyl rotamers, ν CO ), and at 1593 and 1553 cm –1 (ν CN ) and is confirmed by a single-crystal X-ray diffraction study.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Cloud condensation nuclei characteristics at the Southern Great Plains site: role of particle size distribution and aerosol hygroscopicity

The activation ability of aerosols as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) is crucial in climate and hydrological cycle studies, but their properties are not well known. We investigated the long-term measurements of atmospheric aerosol properties, CCN concentrations (N CCN ) at supersaturation (SS = 0.1%–1.0%), and hygroscopicity at the Department of Energy's Southern Great Plains (SGP) site to illustrate the dependence of N CCN on aerosol properties and transport pathways. Cluster analysis was applied to the back trajectories of air masses to investigate their respective source regions. The results showed that aged biomass burning aerosols from Central America were characterized by higher accumulation mode particles (N accu ; median value 805 cm -3 ) and relatively high aerosol hygroscopicity (κ; median value ~0.25) values that result in the higher CCN activation and relatively high N CCN (median value 258–1578 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%). Aerosols from the Gulf of Mexico were characterized by higher N accu (~35%), and N CCN (230–1721 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with the lowest κ (~0.17). In contrast, relatively high nucleation mode particles (N nucl ; ~20%) and low N CCN (128–1553 cm -3 at a SS of 0.1%–1.0%) with higher κ (~0.30) values were observed on the aerosols associated with a westerly wind. The results indicate particle size as the most critical factor influencing the ability of aerosols to activate, whereas the effect of chemical composition was secondary. Our CCN closure analysis suggests that chemical composition and mixing state information are more crucial at lower SS, whereas at higher SS, most particles become activated regardless of their chemical composition and size. This study affirms that soluble organic fraction information is required at higher SS for better N CCN prediction, but both the soluble organics fraction and mixing state are vital to reduce the N CCN prediction uncertainty at lower SS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Scalable Geometric Modeler for Overlap Detection and Resolution (ASC IC L2 Milestone 7181 FY2020 Final Review)

The final review for the FY20 Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) Integrated Codes (IC) L2 Milestone #7181 was conducted on August 31, 2020 at Sandia National Laboratories in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The review panel unanimously agreed that the milestone has been successfully completed. Roshan Quadros (1543) led the milestone team and various members from the team presented the results. The review panel was comprised of staff from Sandia National Laboratories Albuquerque and California that are involved with computational engineering modeling and analysis. The panel consisted of experts in the fields of solid modeling, discretization, meshing, simulation workflows, and computational analysis including personnel Brett Clark (1543, Chair); Jay Foulk (8363); Jackie Moore (1553); Ron Kensek (1341); Ed Hoffman (8753); Dan Ibanez (1443). The presentation documented the technical approach of the team and summarized the results with sufficient detail to demonstrate both the value and the completion of the milestone. A separate SAND report was also generated with more detail to supplement the presentation. The purpose of the milestone was to advance capabilities for automatically finding, displaying, and resolving geometric overlaps in CAD models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Blazar Jets Perturbed by Magneto-gravitational Stresses in Supermassive Binaries

We study particle acceleration and radiative processes in blazar jets under recurring conditions set by gravitational perturbations in supermassive binary systems. We consider the action from a companion orbiting a primary black hole of ∼10{sup 8} M{sub ⊙}, and perturbing its relativistic jet. We discuss how such conditions induce repetitive magneto-hydrodynamic stresses along the jet, and affect its inner electron acceleration and radiative processes. Specifically, we study how macroscopic perturbations related to increased jet “magnetization” end up in higher radiative outputs in the optical, X-ray, and gamma-ray bands. We first find an increase in magnetic field strength, as gauged in the optical band from the synchrotron emission of electrons accelerated in kinetic processes stimulated by reconnecting magnetic lines. The energetic electrons then proceed to up-scatter the synchrotron photons to GeV energies after the canonical synchrotron self-Compton radiation process. Our model implies a specific recurring pattern in the optical to gamma-ray emissions, made of high peaks and wide troughs. Progressing accelerations caused by spreading reconnections will produce an additional synchrotron keV component. Such outbursts provide a diagnostics for enhanced acceleration of electrons, which can up-scatter photons into the TeV range. We discuss how our model applies to the BL Lac object PG 1553+113, arguably the best candidate to now for high amplitude, recurring modulations in its gamma-ray emissions. We also consider other BL Lacs showing correlated keV–TeV radiations such as Mrk 421.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Inferred inflow forecast horizons guiding reservoir release decisions across the United States

Abstract. Medium- to long-range forecasts often guide reservoir release decisions to support water management objectives, including mitigating flood and drought risks. While there is a burgeoning field of science targeted at improving forecast products and associated decision support models, data describing how and when forecasts are applied in practice remain undeveloped. This lack of knowledge may prevent hydrological modelers from developing accurate reservoir release schemes for large-scale, distributed hydrology models that are increasingly used to assess the vulnerabilities of large regions to hydrological stress. We address this issue by estimating seasonally varying, regulated inflow forecast horizons used in the operations of more than 300 dams throughout the conterminous United States (CONUS). For each dam, we take actual forward observed inflows (perfect foresight) as a proxy for forecasted flows available to the operator and then identify for each week of the year the forward horizon that best explains the release decisions taken. Resulting “horizon curves” specify for each dam the inferred inflow forecast horizon as a function of the week of the water year. These curves are analyzed for strength of evidence for contribution of medium- to long-range forecasts in decision making. We use random forest classification to estimate that approximately 80 % of large dams and reservoirs in the US (1553±50 out of 1927 dams with at least 10 Mm3 storage capacity) adopt medium- to long-range inflow forecasts to inform release decisions during at least part of the water year. Long-range forecast horizons (more than 6 weeks ahead) are detected in the operations of reservoirs located in high-elevation regions of the western US, where snowpack information likely guides the release. A simulation exercise conducted on four key western US reservoirs indicates that forecast-informed models of reservoir operations may outperform models that neglect the horizon curve – including during flood and drought conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗