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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

Friction Stir Welded Aluminum-Lithium (Al-Li) 2050 Blanks for Spin Forming

Spin forming is a metalworking process used to produce axially-symmetric parts by the application of lateral pressure from a forming tool to a circular blank mounted on a revolving, heated mandrel. This process enables production of cones, domes, or caps that can incorporate features such as flat bulkheads. Friction stir welded (FSW) Al-Li 2195 blanks have been spin formed for single-piece, launch vehicle domes up to 5 m in diameter. Al-Li 2050 plate has the advantage of availability up to 165 mm thick,whereas 2195 plate is traditionally only available up to 57 mm thick. Increased plate thickness enables greater design flexibility for machining of taller structural elements, such as stiffeners. However, 2050 is only available in plate widths up to ~3.9 m. This study demonstrated the capability of making custom 2050 blanks for spin forming large (>7.8 m in diameter), single-piece, light-weight flight articles (e.g., lunar habitats and landers) by FSW two (or more) plates together. Spin forming of welded 2050 blanks has not been attempted before this investigation. The objective was to evaluate the mechanical properties of 2050 parent material and FSW regions after spin forming and subsequent T6 heat treatment. A 3 m diameter x 38 mm thick 2050 blank was fabricated from two 1.5 m wide pieces by FSW and subsequently spin formed into a cone article. Additionally, three 1.2 m diameter x 8.1 mm thick 2050 blanks were produced by FSW and spin formed into subscale cone articles with varying strain input. Mechanical properties are reported for spin formed 2050-T6 parent material and FSW regions on the articles. Abnormal grain growth (AGG) in the FSW during heat treatment was expected based on prior experience with 2195. Implementation of an AGG suppression strategy during heat treatment reduced AGG in the FSW regions and improved ductility.

Spin forming↗
NASA NTRS2020

Role of emission controls in reducing the 2050 climate change penalty for PM2.5 in China

Previous studies demonstrated that global warming can lead to deteriorated air quality even when anthropogenic emissions were kept constant, which has been called a climate change penalty on air quality. It is expected that anthropogenic emissions will decrease significantly in the future considering the aggressive emission control actions in China. However, the dependence of climate change penalty on the choice of emission scenario is still uncertain. To fill this gap, we conducted multiple independent model simulations to investigate the response of PM2.5 to future (2050) climate warming (RCP8.5) in China but with different emission scenarios, including the constant 2015 emissions, the 2050 CLE emissions (based on Current Legislation), and the 2050 MTFR emissions (based on Maximum Technically Feasible Reduction). For each set of emissions, we estimate climate change penalty as the difference in PM2.5 between a pair of simulations with either 2015 or 2050 meteorology. Under 2015 emissions, we find a PM2.5 climate change penalty of 1.43 μg m−3 in Eastern China, leading to an additional 35,000 PM2.5-related premature deaths [95% confidence interval (CI), 21,000-40,000] by 2050. However, the PM2.5 climate change penalty weakens to 0.24 μg m−3 with strict anthropogenic emission controls under the 2050 MTFR emissions, which decreases the associated PM2.5-related deaths to 17,000. The smaller MTFR climate change penalty contributes 14% of the total PM2.5 decrease when both emissions and meteorology are changed from 2015 to 2050, and 24% of total health benefits associated with this PM2.5 decrease in Eastern China. This finding suggests that controlling anthropogenic emissions can effectively reduce the climate change penalty on PM2.5 and its associated premature deaths, even though a climate change penalty still occurs even under MTFR. Strengthened controls on anthropogenic emissions are key to attaining air quality targets and protecting human health in the context of future global climate change.

Emission controls↗
DOE OSTI2022

Scout Benchmark Scenarios for U.S. Building Energy and CO2 Emissions to 2050

Overview and Intended Use Cases: These scenarios establish a range of futures for U.S. buildings sector energy use and CO2 emissions to 2050 using Scout (scout.energy.gov), a reproducible and granular model of U.S. building energy use, emissions, and consumer costs developed by the U.S. national labs for the U.S. Department of Energy's Building Technologies Office (BTO). Scout benchmark scenario data are suitable for the following example use cases: setting high-level policy goals for the U.S. buildings sector to 2050 (e.g., X% building CO2 emissions reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2030, Y% reductions vs. 2005 levels by 2050); exploring the effects of key dynamics driving U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions to 2050 that could be affected by policy levers (e.g., raising minimum technology performance levels; accelerating electrification and/or retrofit rates; introducing breakthrough technologies to the market); determining priority segments (regions, building types, and end use/technology types) and sequencing of U.S. buildings sector energy and CO2 emissions reductions to 2050 under a given set of assumptions; and/or identifying the energy and emissions impacts or cost effectiveness of specific technologies or operational approaches of interest—in isolation or after considering competition with other measures in a scenario portfolio. Scenario Summary: A total of 8 scenarios explore the effects of changes across both the demand- and supply-side of building energy use on annual U.S. building energy use and CO2 emissions from 2022–2050. Scenarios are organized into three groups representing low, moderate, and best-case potentials for building decarbonization, respectively.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2022

Projecting Power Converter Specific Power Through 2050 for Aerospace Applications

In order to analyze the potential fuel burn benefit from the electrification of aircraft powertrains, it is important to quantify the amount of weight that will be added to the aircraft for each additional component of the electric powertrain. This paper provides a projection of the specific power and efficiency of power converters, (AC-DC, DC-AC, or DC-DC), through the year 2050. Data was first collected on state of the art power converters in multiple application areas, creating a power converter database. Relevant specific powers were added to a set of historical data from 1976-2020, and then three different logistic curves were fit through the historical data to represent S-curve shaped growth through the year 2050. The three curves were differentiated by conservative, nominal, and aggressive assumptions for the year in which the logistic curve begins to bend down towards slower growth. With a 30% knockdown factor accounting for the additional weight required for a high altitude converter, projections range from the aggressive specific power projection of 52.9 kW/kg in 2050 to a much more conservative specific power of 12 kW/kg in which growth is limited due to certifiability concerns. Little historical data was found on converter efficiencies to project efficiency based on historical trends. Projections are based on expert opinion on yearly decreases in converter losses. 2050 projections range from 0.987 to 0.997.

fuel burn↗
NASA NTRS2011

Evaluation of Aluminum Alloy 2050-T84 Microstructure and Mechanical Properties at Ambient and Cryogenic Temperatures

Aluminum alloy 2050 is being considered for the fabrication of cryogenic propellant tanks to reduce the mass of future heavy-lift launch vehicles. The alloy is available in section thicknesses greater than that of the incumbent aluminum alloy, 2195, which will enable designs with greater structural efficiency. While ambient temperature design allowable properties are available for alloy 2050, cryogenic properties are not available. To determine its suitability for use in cryogenic propellant tanks, tensile, compression and fracture tests were conducted on 4 inch thick 2050-T84 plate at ambient temperature and at -320degF. Various metallurgical analyses were also performed in order to provide an understanding of the compositional homogeneity and microstructure of 2050.

Hafley, Robert A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of the iron and steel sector in achieving net zero U.S. CO 2 emissions by 2050

The U.S. steel sector is a hard-to-abate sector because of its heavy dependence on fossil fuels and its high capital requirements. In 2015, the sector was one of the major carbon emitters, contributing 10 % of the U.S. industrial CO 2 emissions. The ability to decarbonize the U.S. iron and steel sector directly affects the ability of the U.S. to achieve economy-wide net zero CO 2 by 2050. In this paper, we use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to analyze different U.S. steel sector decarbonization pathways under varying technology, policy, and demand futures. These pathways provide insights on how various low-carbon steelmaking technologies such as those using carbon capture and storage (CCS), hydrogen, or scrap could help reduce U.S. steel emissions by mid-century. In our primary decarbonization pathway, we find that nearly all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking capacity is fully integrated with CCS by 2050. However, without CCS availability, almost all of the conventional fossil-based steelmaking is phased-out by 2050 and is replaced by hydrogen-based production. Scrap-based production continues to remain vital across both of these decarbonization pathways. Furthermore, we find that demand reduction could help reduce the required levels of CCS and hydrogen-based production in the decarbonization pathways. Implementation of advanced energy efficiency measures could help substantially reduce the sector's energy usage. Finally, we observe that addressing the embodied carbon transfer associated with steel imports will be crucial for fully decarbonizing the U.S. steel sector.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cost of a potential hydrogen-refueling network for heavy-duty vehicles with long-haul application in Germany 2050

Long-distance road-freight transport emits a large share of Germany's greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. A potential solution for reducing GHG emissions in this sector is to use green hydrogen in fuel cell electric vehicles (FC-HDV) and establish an accompanying hydrogen refueling station (HRS) network. In this paper, we apply an existing refueling network design model to a HDV-HRS network for Germany until 2050 based on German traffic data for heavy-duty trucks and estimate its costs. Comparing different fuel supply scenarios (pipeline vs. on-site), the on-site scenario results show a network consisting of 137 stations at a cost of 8.38 billion € per year in 2050 (0.40 € per vehicle km), while the centralized scenario with the same amount of stations shows a cheaper cost with 7.25 billion euros per year (0.35 € per vehicle km). Finally, the hydrogen cost (LCOH) varies from 5.59 €/kg (pipeline) to 6.47 €/kg (on-site) in 2050.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Near and long-term perspectives on strategies to decarbonize China's heavy-duty trucks through 2050

China needs to drastically reduce carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions from heavy-duty trucks (HDTs), a key emitter in the growing transport sector, in order to address energy security concerns and meet its climate targets. We address existing research gaps by modeling feasibility, applicability, and energy and emissions impacts of multiple decarbonization strategies at different points in time. China still relies heavily on coal power, so impacts of new HDT technologies depend on the timing of their introduction relative to progress toward non-fossil power. We use a bottom-up model to simulate HDT energy consumption and CO 2 emissions through 2050. Results show that beginning to deploy battery electric and fuel-cell HDTs as early as 2020 and 2035, respectively, could achieve significant and the largest CO 2 emissions reduction by 2050 with a decarbonized power sector. However, viable near-term strategies-improving efficiency and logistics, switching to liquefied natural gas-could halve HDTs' current diesel consumption and CO 2 emissions by 2050. Our results underscore the need for a mix of near- and long-term policy and technology options to decarbonize China's HDTs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2017

Technology for NASA's Planetary Science Vision 2050.

NASAs Planetary Science Division (PSD) initiated and sponsored a very successful community Workshop held from Feb. 27 to Mar. 1, 2017 at NASA Headquarters. The purpose of the Workshop was to develop a vision of planetary science research and exploration for the next three decades until 2050. This abstract summarizes some of the salient technology needs discussed during the three-day workshop and at a technology panel on the final day. It is not meant to be a final report on technology to achieve the science vision for 2050.

Vision↗
DOE OSTI2022

Black carbon emissions and reduction potential in China: 2015–2050

Black carbon is a product of the incomplete combustion of carbonaceous fuels and has significant adverse effects on climate change, air quality, and human health. China has been a major contributor to global anthropogenic black carbon emissions. This study develops a black carbon inventory in China, using 2015 as the base year, and projects annual black carbon emissions in China for the period 2016–2050, under two scenarios: a Reference scenario and an Accelerated Reduction scenario. The study estimates that the total black carbon emissions in China in 2015 were 1100 thousand tons (kt), with residential use being the biggest contributor, accounting for more than half of the total black carbon emissions, followed by coke production, industry, agricultural waste burning, and transportation. This study then projects the total black carbon emissions in China in 2050 to be 278 kt in the Reference scenario and 86 kt in the Accelerated Reduction Scenario. Compared to the Reference scenario, the Accelerated Reduction scenario will achieve much faster and deeper black carbon reductions in all the sectors. The dramatic reductions can be attributed to the fuel switching in the residential sector, faster implementation of high-efficiency emission control measures in the industry, transportation, and coke production sectors, and faster phase-out of agricultural waste open burning. This analysis reveals the high potential of black carbon emission reductions across multiple sectors in China through the next thirty years.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Impact of drought on global food security by 2050

Drought is a major driver of crop production loss, threatening global food security as the population rises toward 9 billion by 2050. Using a process-based crop model within an Earth system model, we assess drought-related impacts on maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production at global and country levels. We then develop a food insecurity index combining drought impacts with socio-economic factors. Our results indicate that by 2050, globally averaged drought losses for combined maize, soybean, rice, and wheat production are <2%, though soybean losses reach 3.6%. Despite these small average changes at the global scale, 62 countries experience maximum production losses over 10%, and 24 countries over 20%. Our index identifies regions at greatest risk, including large parts of South America, Africa, Eastern Europe, and Southeast Asia. These results illustrate the need for drought adaptation to mitigate future drought impacts on crop production.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decarbonizing the U.S. Economy by 2050: A National Blueprint for the Buildings Sector

Residential and commercial buildings are among the largest sources of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the United States, responsible for more than one-third of total U.S. GHG emissions. There are nearly 130 million existing buildings in the United States, with 40 million new homes and 60 billion square feet of commercial floorspace expected to be constructed between now and 2050. Today, most buildings consume large amounts of energy and cause significant climate pollution to meet our basic needs. Buildings account for 74% of U.S. electricity use and building heating and cooling drives peak electricity demand. Moreover, buildings are where electric vehicles (EVs), solar, storage, heat pumps, water heaters, and other distributed energy resources integrate with the electricity system. Consequently, the buildings sector will play a key role in achieving economywide net-zero emissions by 2050.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS2020

An X-ray Interferometry Concept for the ESA Voyage 2050 Programme

We have proposed the development of X-ray interferometry as part of ESA’s Voyage 2050 programme, to reveal the universe at high energies with ultra-high spatial resolution. With only a 1 m baseline, which could be accommodated on a single spacecraft, X-ray interferometry can reach 100μas resolution at 10 ̊A (1.24 keV) and exceed that of the Event Horizon Telescope at 2 ̊A (6.2 keV). A multi-spacecraft ‘constellation’ interferometer would resolve well below 1μas. Here we focus on the single-spacecraft interferometer design and discuss the process of fringe detection and image reconstruction from multiple baselines, showing simulated images of testcases from our Voyage 2050 White Paper. We also discuss the challenges and feasibility of reaching the technical requirements needed for a single-spacecraft interferometer. Most key requirements are already feasible or within easy reach. Besides a ground-based testbed, covered elsewhere in these proceedings, the most important areas for development include large format, small-pixel X-ray detectors and pointing which is stable or can be reconstructed to tens of μas precision.

Phil Uttley↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High Energy Hydroforming Friction Stir Welded 2050 Al-Li Blanks for Aerospace Domes and Cones

Friction stir welded (FSW) aluminum blanks offer larger preform sizes than available from the mill in single width plates. Large blanks made from aerospace-grade aluminum alloys are essential for making large domes and cones for launch vehicles and crew vehicles. Previous research efforts have demonstrated >5m FSW blanks can be formed into large domes or cones using spin forming, but the subsequent solution heat treatment consistently led to abnormal grain growth (AGG). The AGG phenomenon occurs because the FSW blanks must be spin formed in the -O annealed temper to withstand the high strain process without cracking. Subsequently, the solution heat treatment process leads to the onset of AGG, whereby a small number of grains grow much larger than the surrounding matrix. Ultimately, the large grains and bimodal grain-size distribution leads to unacceptable ductility in the short-transverse direction of the part. Alternatively, explosive hydroforming is a nascent process that can be applied to large and thick aerospace-grade aluminum alloy blanks in the -T3 temper and only require a post-forming artificial aging process to a -T8. Avoiding the solution heat treatment (SHT) process mitigates AGG, and also eliminates the need for very rare drop-furnace quench baths that can accommodate a part size larger than 5m in diameter. This presentation summarizes a Lockheed Martin-led effort that demonstrated explosive hydroforming of a 1.9m diameter, 39mm thick 2050 aluminum lithium FSW blank. Details will be provided on the process flow, mechanical properties, and metallographic analyses. This work was performed in partnership with NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) under a NASA Announcement of Collaboration Opportunities program.

Friction stir welded blank↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios for the United States in the Energy Modeling Forum 37 study

The Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) 37 study on deep decarbonization and high electrification analyzed a set of scenarios that achieve economy-wide net-zero carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions in North America by mid-century, exploring the implications of different technology evolutions, policies, and behavioral assumptions affecting energy supply and demand. Here, for this paper, 16 modeling teams reported resulting emissions projections, energy system evolution, and economic activity. This paper provides an overview of the study, documents the scenario design, provides a roadmap for complementary forthcoming papers from this study, and offers an initial summary and comparison of results for net-zero CO 2 by 2050 scenarios in the United States. We compare various outcomes across models and scenarios, such as emissions, energy use, fuel mix evolution, and technology adoption. Despite disparate model structure and sources for input assumptions, there is broad agreement in energy system trends across models towards deep decarbonization of the electricity sector coupled with increased end-use electrification of buildings, transportation, and to a lesser extent industry. All models deploy negative emissions technologies (e.g., direct air capture and bioenergy with carbon capture and storage) in addition to land sinks to achieve net-zero CO 2 emissions. Important differences emerged in the results, showing divergent pathways among end-use sectors with deep electrification and grid decarbonization as necessary but not sufficient conditions to achieve net zero. These differences will be explored in the papers complementing this study to inform efforts to reach net-zero emissions and future research needs.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2022

O 2 Oxidation and Sublimation Kinetics of Single Silicon Nanoparticles at 1200–2050 K: Variation of Reaction Rates, Evolution of Structural and Optical Properties, and the Active-to-Passive Transition

Sublimation and O 2 etching kinetics for a series of individual silicon (Si) nanoparticles (NPs) were studied for NP temperatures (T NP ) from 1200 to 2050 K, using a single NP mass spectrometry technique. Sublimation was significant for T NP > 1700 K, with rates reasonably well fit to Arrhenius kinetics, but evolving, particularly during initial heating. O 2 etching efficiencies varied from NP-to-NP and with changing T NP , but also evolved dramatically over time. For T NP ≤ 1500 K, NPs were observed to passivate after losing 30 to 50% of the initial NP mass. At higher T NP , etching efficiency decreased over time, but never passivated. Interestingly, bulk Si passivation has not been observed for the range of T NP and O 2 pressures used here, and a model was developed to test the effects of several NP-specific mechanistic parameters on both the initial and time-dependent etching behavior. As a result, the optical properties of the hot NPs were also found to evolve as the NPs etched, particularly during the initial fast mass loss, and correlations between emission intensities and etching kinetics were examined.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

A global comparison of building decarbonization scenarios by 2050 towards 1.5–2 °C targets

Buildings play a key role in the transition to a low-carbon-energy system and in achieving Paris Agreement climate targets. Analyzing potential scenarios for building decarbonization in different socioeconomic contexts is a crucial step to develop national and transnational roadmaps to achieve global emission reduction targets. This study integrates building stock energy models for 32 countries across four continents to create carbon emission mitigation reference scenarios and decarbonization scenarios by 2050, covering 60% of today’s global building emissions. These decarbonization pathways are compared to those from global models. Results demonstrate that reference scenarios are in all countries insufficient to achieve substantial decarbonization and lead, in some regions, to significant increases, i.e., China and South America. Decarbonization scenarios lead to substantial carbon reductions within the range projected in the 2 °C scenario but are still insufficient to achieve the decarbonization goals under the 1.5 °C scenario.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Inequalities in global residential cooling energy use to 2050

Intersecting socio-demographic transformations and warming climates portend increasing worldwide heat exposures and health sequelae. Cooling adaptation via air conditioning (AC) is effective, but energy-intensive and constrained by household-level differences in income and adaptive capacity. Using statistical models trained on a large multi-country household survey dataset (n = 673,215), we project AC adoption and energy use to mid-century at fine spatial resolution worldwide. Globally, the share of households with residential AC could grow from 27% to 41% (range of scenarios assessed: 33-48%), implying up to a doubling of residential cooling electricity consumption, from 1220 to 1940 (scenarios range: 1590-2377) terawatt-hours yr. –1 , emitting between 590 and 1,365 million tons of carbon dioxide equivalent (MtCO 2 e). AC access and utilization will remain highly unequal within and across countries and income groups, with significant regressive impacts. Up to 4 billion people may lack air-conditioning in 2050. Our global gridded projections facilitate incorporation of AC’s vulnerability, health, and decarbonization effects into integrated assessments of climate change.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗