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NASA NTRS2019

Implementation Recommendations and Usage Boundaries for the Two-Dimensional Probability of Collision Calculation

The two-dimensional (2D) probability of collision (𝑃𝑐) estimation method relies on several assumptions that must be satisfied for accurate results. Monte Carlo analysis of ~44,000 conjunctions indicates that 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) pro-vides accurate estimates for most typical conjunctions, but occasionally underestimates 𝑃(sub 𝑐) significantly, indicating an assumption violation. A test to detect large-amplitude underestimation inaccuracies can be based on how much “offset-from-TCA” 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) values vary during a well-defined time interval bracketing closest approach. The test successfully detects all large-amplitude 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) underestimations found to date, but with a high false-alarm rate. The analysis also provides implementation recommendations and usage boundaries for the 2D-𝑃(sub 𝑐) method.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Implementation Recommendations and Usage Boundaries for the Two-Dimensional Probability of Collision Calculation

Hall, Doyle T.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Three CA-Related Covariance Issues and Their Solutions

This presentation addresses three issues that arise in the use of DoD-produced satellite state estimate covariances in the conjunction assessment process: the realism of the provided covariances, how to address correlated error between two satellites' covariance matrices, and how to proceed when a furnished covariance is non-positive-definite. To address the first, DoD has implemented a set of two "consider parameters" with which to alter/expand the covariance to account for atmospheric density forecast error and satellite frontal area uncertainty, the two largest sources of unmodeled position prediction error for LEO orbits; these values are governed by a satellite's orbital parameters and ballistic coefficient histories, as well as the current and predicted space weather situation. This approach substantially improves the realism of the covariance by accounting for expected prediction errors that are not part of the fit process that generates the covariance. The second issue of covariance correlation is a complicated one, but the main shared error sourceâ€”global atmospheric density error that is common to both satellites can be characterized and, through sensitivity vectors, quantified at the conjunction's time of closest approach and removed from the joint covariance, which is used in the CA probability of collision (Pc) calculation. Finally, while according to the orbit determination theory a non-positive-definite (NPD) covariance is not possible, numerical truncation and covariance interpolation can conspire to produce NPD results, which render the covariance unusable for certain CA risk assessment calculations, such as Monte Carlo Pc determination. Three similar techniques are profiled and the simplest of them recommended as a reasonable remediation technique when NPD covariances are encountered by CA practitioners.

Dynamic Consider Parameter↗

NASA NTRS2017

Time Dependence of Collision Probabilities During Satellite Conjunctions

The NASA Conjunction Assessment Risk Analysis (CARA) team has recently implemented updated software to calculate the probability of collision (P (sub c)) for Earth-orbiting satellites. The algorithm can employ complex dynamical models for orbital motion, and account for the effects of non-linear trajectories as well as both position and velocity uncertainties. This “3D P (sub c)” method entails computing a 3-dimensional numerical integral for each estimated probability. Our analysis indicates that the 3D method provides several new insights over the traditional “2D P (sub c)” method, even when approximating the orbital motion using the relatively simple Keplerian two-body dynamical model. First, the formulation provides the means to estimate variations in the time derivative of the collision probability, or the probability rate, R (sub c). For close-proximity satellites, such as those orbiting in formations or clusters, R (sub c) variations can show multiple peaks that repeat or blend with one another, providing insight into the ongoing temporal distribution of risk. For single, isolated conjunctions, R (sub c) analysis provides the means to identify and bound the times of peak collision risk. Additionally, analysis of multiple actual archived conjunctions demonstrates that the commonly used “2D P (sub c)” approximation can occasionally provide inaccurate estimates. These include cases in which the 2D method yields negligibly small probabilities (e.g., P (sub c)) is greater than 10 (sup -10)), but the 3D estimates are sufficiently large to prompt increased monitoring or collision mitigation (e.g., P (sub c) is greater than or equal to 10 (sup -5)). Finally, the archive analysis indicates that a relatively efficient calculation can be used to identify which conjunctions will have negligibly small probabilities. This small-P (sub c) screening test can significantly speed the overall risk analysis computation for large numbers of conjunctions.

Hall, Doyle T.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Quantifying Shortcomings in the 2-D Pc Calculation

The probability of collision, Pc, between two Earth-orbiting satellites can often, but not always, be approximated adequately using the "2D-Pc" formulation. The objective is to find a set of "boundary conditions" that ensure the 2D-Pc approximation be sufficiently accurate, so that it may be determined when computationally-intensive Brute Force Monte Carlo1 (BFMC) Pc estimates are required. We critically examine the assumptions used in the formulation of the 2D-Pc approximation and then formulate 2D-Pc boundary condition tests to check if these assumptions are satisfied adequately.

Analysis↗

DOE OSTI2025

Experiments to validate Thermodynamics and Transport models of Strongly Coupled Dusty Plasma Matter (Final Technical Report for DE-SC0023416)

The goal of this two-year grant is to provide access to the PI to dusty plasma experimental facilities at the DOE-funded Collaborative Research Facility Magnetized Plasma Research Laboratory, Auburn University to become a user of that facility, to obtain experimental data to support another ongoing grant DE-SC0021146 (an Early Career Award to the PI that is focused on modeling of dusty plasma thermodynamics and transport processes), to generate experimental data for funding proposals, and to provide exposure to University of Memphis students to advanced experimental techniques. The following technical accomplishments were made: 1. Development of a novel Bidirectional Electrode Control Arms Assembly (BECAA) for producing perfect 2D grain layers for complex plasma experimentation. BECAA uses movable electrode arms to tilt or move the electrode in a RF discharge from outside the chamber, allowing for the manipulation of grain clouds without needing to change the plasma parameters or gas pressure. This work addresses a longstanding gap in the literature for a method to produce clusters of selectable number of grains and that are perfectly two dimensional as opposed to being only quasi-2D. 2. Experimental investigation of the structural properties of finite-N clusters with N=2 to 50. Individual particle behavior in clusters could vary from grain to grain and this study measured systematically produced clusters for two different grain sizes. Analysis (funded by another grant DE-SC0021146) is currently underway to quantify the differences between grains that are found on the surface vs. the interior of clusters, the shell structure, and the decay of correlations in position, velocity, and kinetic energy. 3. An experimental method to measure the structural entropy of clusters was developed by observing the self-induced structural transitions between various possible arrangements. In a series of heating and cooling cycles, the number of times each possible arrangement was attained was experimentally observed and used to compute the probability of existence of that arrangement, and subsequently the configurational entropy of the cluster. Analysis (funded by another grant DE-SC0021146) is currently underway to produce the entropy of clusters as a function of the number of grains and use the same to compute thermodynamic state variables for 2D complex plasma/grain clusters. 4. A preliminary experimental study of multibody collisions between N grains (N=2 – 10) was conducted. The clusters were produced using the BECAA technique and velocities were imparted to the grains using manipulation laser pulses. Analysis (funded by another grant DE-SC0021146) is currently underway to develop a theoretical framework to describe multibody collisions analogous to classical two-body interactions.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Linear source method of characteristics in HELIOS2

The Studsvik Scandpower code HELIOS2 is a fast lattice transport code that has gained wide use for reactor fuel cycle analysis in commercial, regulatory, and research environments. It contains two transport solvers - Collision Probabilities (CP) and Method of Characteristics (MoC) - with a general geometry ability and generalized depletion for a variety of fuel types, experimental facilities, and isotope production applications. The HELIOS2 lattice code has been extended with the development of a linear source MoC option. The linear source equations are derived within the scope of the HELIOS2 general geometry and non-cyclic ray tracing. The implementation was tested for fine and coarse spatial mesh models of the 2D C5G7 MOX computational benchmark, which provides a pure and extreme test of a transport solver. The linear source yields at least comparable accuracy with reduced computational resource requirements relative to the flat-source approximation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Cell Dancoff-based embedded self-shielding capability for doubly heterogeneous particulate fuels in SCALE/Polaris

Polaris is a two-dimensional (2D) transport lattice physics capability in the SCALE code system for light-water reactor (LWR) analysis. SCALE/Polaris is being extended to treat doubly heterogeneous particulate fuels in LWRs with accident-tolerant fuels and prismatic high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) fuel. Recently, a Dancoff-based Wigner-Seitz approximation capability based on the embedded self-shielding method (DWA-ESSM) was implemented into Polaris for efficient computation. A new double heterogeneity treatment capability based on DWA-ESSM in conjunction with the Hebert's collision probability method for double heterogeneity was developed and implemented for Polaris. The new capability was verified by performing benchmark calculations for the prismatic HTGR fuel compact problems with various design parameters through a code-to-code comparison between the Polaris and continuous-energy Monte Carlo results. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty analysis for VERA problem 2 using the cell-code Condor v2.8.05

Condor is a cell-level neutronic calculation code that applies multi-group collision probabilities with heterogeneous response coupling method within generic geometry configurations. Under the Condor's code continuous development, the incorporation of up-to-date methodologies and state-of-the-art practices in reactor analysis represents a driving force. In this work, the capabilities of Condor v2.8.05 to develop an uncertainty analysis for realistic PWR-kind fuel assemblies are studied. The Total Monte Carlo approach is applied to quantify the impact of fabrication tolerances in the code's results for reactivity and power distributions, by means of randomly sampled input values using the VERA problem 2 as basis. The VERA problem 2 proposes a series of Westinghouse 2D 17 x 17-type fuel lattices, to be calculated reflected at beginning-of-life without Xe. The configurations correspond to a modern PWR. Selected neutronic parameters from Condor runs are thus analyzed in terms of the observed spread as well as the obtained distributions for the randomly perturbed cases, showing the capability of the code to handle the required input data, as well as its ability to provide valuable insights regarding uncertainty quantification.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Impact of Aerosols on Cloud and Precipitation Processes: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Aerosols and especially their effect on clouds are one of the key components of the climate system and the hydrological cycle [Ramanathan et al., 2001]. Yet, the aerosol effect on clouds remains largely unknown and the processes involved not well understood. A recent report published by the National Academy of Science states "The greatest uncertainty about the aerosol climate forcing - indeed, the largest of all the uncertainties about global climate forcing - is probably the indirect effect of aerosols on clouds [NRC, 2001]." The aerosol effect on clouds is often categorized into the traditional "first indirect (i.e., Twomey)" effect on the cloud droplet sizes for a constant liquid water path [Twomey, 1977] and the "semi-direct" effect on cloud coverage [e.g., Ackerman et al ., 2001]." Enhanced aerosol concentrations can also suppress warm rain processes by producing a narrow droplet spectrum that inhibits collision and coalescence processes [e.g., Squires and Twomey, 1961; Warner and Twomey, 1967; Warner, 1968; Rosenfeld, 19991. The aerosol effect on precipitation processes, also known as the second type of aerosol indirect effect [Albrecht, 1989], is even more complex, especially for mixed-phase convective clouds. Table 1 summarizes the key observational studies identifying the microphysical properties, cloud characteristics, thermodynamics and dynamics associated with cloud systems from high-aerosol continental environments. For example, atmospheric aerosol concentrations can influence cloud droplet size distributions, warm-rain process, cold-rain process, cloud-top height, the depth of the mixed phase region, and occurrence of lightning. In addition, high aerosol concentrations in urban environments could affect precipitation variability by providing an enhanced source of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN). Hypotheses have been developed to explain the effect of urban regions on convection and precipitation [van den Heever and Cotton, 2007 and Shepherd, 2005]. Please see Tao et al. (2007) for more detailed description on aerosol impact on precipitation. Recently, a detailed spectral-bin microphysical scheme was implemented into the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model. Atmospheric aerosols are also described using number density size-distribution functions. A spectral-bin microphysical model is very expensive from a computational point of view and has only been implemented into the 2D version of the GCE at the present time. The model is tested by studying the evolution of deep tropical clouds in the west Pacific warm pool region and summertime convection over a mid-latitude continent with different concentrations of CCN: a low "clean" concentration and a high "dirty" concentration. The impact of atmospheric aerosol concentration on cloud and precipitation will be investigated.

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗