Stochastic Reconstruction of Ablating Material Properties for Uncertainty Propagation in Material Response Simulations
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On February 25, 2026, this NASA Talk was held regarding the Space Shuttle Columbia (Columbia Launch & Recovery, Columbia Reconstruction, Investigation, Causes & Key Takeaways). Crew & Thermal System Division (EC) partnered with Kennedy Space Center (KSC) and Engineering Directorate (EA) to bring these talks to Johnson Space Center (JSC) centering on what led up to and transpired after the Space Shuttle Columbia accident. Some recovered debris was on exhibit during the talks. NASA Mishap Program Specialist David Erickson presented this talk. Mr. Erickson supports NASA mishap investigations and assists with the development of NASA's new Columbia Learning Center at KSC. This talk was timely and a solemn reminder of the critical importance of diligence, safety, and excellence in our work. EA Director Julie Kramer White welcomed the 400+ center-wide in-person audience, and EC Division Chief Rubik Sheth introduced the speakers. This event was held in the JSC Teague Auditorium, recorded, and executed by the EC in-house STAR Productions team. This record includes an mp4 video with a run time of 32 min. 31 sec.; in color; with sound.
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Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Emerging composite materials are expanding the potential of additive manufacturing and enabling applications previously restricted by traditional manufacturing methods. The multi-phase nature of these composite materials combined with the complex in-ternal geometry of additively manufactured parts have enabled unique behavior, and potentially new applications. Additionally, these materials can be pyrolyzed to create dense metal, ceramic, and glass parts with geometries typically not achievable by tra-ditional processes. Additive manufacturing of borosilicate glass-based systems can open new applications in nuclear engineering, astronomy, and bone regrowth therapy. To elucidate the process-parameter relationship of borosilicate-polylactic acid (PLA) composites, mechanical testing was conducted and compared with a pure polylactic acid polymer baseline. Test specimens were fabricated by fused-filament fabrication with minimal post-processing. Yield strength, ultimate strength, and elastic modulus were calculated from stress-strain curves. Optical and scanning electron microscopy were conducted to observe the specimen microstructure before and after testing. The highest compressive yield strength for the composite was 28.22 MPa, and the highest compressive yield strength for PLA was 49.30 MPa. Print orientation was found to benefit the composite material but have a detrimental effect on the pure matrix material. An elastic modulus of 2.66 GPa was recorded for the borosilicate-PLA composite at 100% infill, 1 shell wall, and layer lines parallel to compression axis. Microscopy revealed that lower modulus composite specimens had the particulates re-distributed within the matrix. Tensile testing was done according to a polymer testing standard, which caused difficulties obtaining consistent fracture within the gauge length.
The Mars Sample Return (MSR) mission will be returning samples of Martian soil to Earth. The samples will be returned in the Earth Entry System (EES). The EES capsule is protected by a new thermal protection system; the 3-Dimensionally Woven, Mid-Density, Carbon Phenolic (3MDCP) material which is derived from the Heatshield for Extreme Entry Environment Technology (HEEET). The baseline 3MDCP design is a single piece thermal protection system that avoids the manufacturing and certification challenges associated with a tiled configuration. A 3MDCP heatshield begins as a flat woven preform that is formed to the final heatshield shape and then infused with phenolic resin. A NASA Ames lead team, in collaboration with Spirit Textiles (formerly TEAM Inc.), Fiber Materials Inc. (FMI, a Spirit AeroSystems Company), and Kratos SRE, has been developing and demonstrating the processes to fabricate the 3MDCP heatshield and characterize the resulting properties. The process of forming the flat woven preform into the final heatshield shape, a sphere-cone geometry with a 52.5° cone angle, involves local but substantial movement of the yarns in the weave. This results in continuous fibers across the single piece heatshield, albeit with property variations between different regions of the heatshield. This presentation will provide a high-level status of 3MDCP development for the MSR EES heatshield. This will include an overview of the manufacturing processes with an emphasis on the impact of forming on fiber orientation, material properties, and performance. Results comparing preliminary formed and flat materials will be shown. Additionally, the presentation will layout the broader plan for property testing and tie-in to aerothermal performance.
The Orion Aerosciences program at NASA Langley has played a central role in advancing the aerodynamic and aeroheating prediction capabilities required for the Orion crew vehicle’s return from deep space. This presentation provides a technical overview of aerosciences contributions spanning Exploration Flight Test-1 (EFT-1), Artemis I, and the ongoing post-flight analysis of Artemis II. EFT-1 provided the first high-energy entry dataset for Orion, enabling critical validation of aerodynamic force and moment predictions, static and dynamic stability characteristics, and aeroheating environments at relevant flight Mach and Reynolds numbers. Flight-derived pressure data were used to refine the Flush Air Data System (FADS) methodology for atmospheric density reconstruction and to improve Best Estimated Trajectory (BET) solutions. The EFT-1 data also offered key insights into heat shield performance, including char layer recession, in-depth thermal response, and material retention behavior under flight conditions, informing updates to both thermal response models and uncertainty quantification practices. Building on EFT-1, Artemis I extended the database to true lunar-return conditions. Observations of heat shield performance, including localized char loss, bondline response, and recession variability, provided an unprecedented opportunity to reassess Thermal Protection System (TPS) and aeroheating modeling assumptions. Aerodynamic reconstruction efforts incorporated improved FADS calibration, enhanced atmospheric modeling, and refined force and moment databases to reduce trajectory and load uncertainties. Aeroheating comparisons between pre-flight predictions and flight data enabled targeted model updates, particularly in transitional flow environments and wake heating regions. For Artemis II, these lessons were systematically incorporated into the pre-flight prediction process. Updates included refined aerodynamic databases anchored to flight-validated corrections, improved density estimation and BET methodologies using enhanced database interpolation algorithm and FADS modeling, and revised aeroheating design environments informed by Artemis I material response observations. By the time of the workshop, Artemis II post-flight analysis will be underway, and preliminary findings will be presented where available, including early comparisons of aerodynamic reconstruction, atmospheric density estimation, and thermal protection system performance relative to updated predictions. Collectively, this body of work is a testament to the dedicated and multidisciplinary team whose sustained efforts have contributed to the program’s success and to the progressive maturation of Orion aerosciences modeling through numerical modeling, ground and flight data assimilation. The integrated advancement of aerodynamics, trajectory reconstruction, FADS-based density estimation, and aeroheating analysis has reduced predictive uncertainty and strengthened confidence for future crewed lunar and deep-space missions.
The successful development and deployment of space nuclear power and propulsion technology requires a high-fidelity, efficient means of modeling ex-core radiation fields. Monte Carlo particle transport codes provide enable the highest level of fidelity in radiation field modeling but are inefficient for modeling ex-core radiation without modification. This paper details the development of an approach to ex-core radiation field modeling that maintains the fidelity of a Monte Carlo transport approach without sacrificing computational efficiency. This approach is based on recent improvements to an existing Monte Carlo transport acceleration technique known as surface source banking. As the transport of many particles is required to ensure adequate uncertainty in far field transport, analytical reconstruction techniques are employed to represent surface source banks as sampleable series of distributions in particle phase from which an arbitrarily large number of particles can be generated and simulated. All steps of this approach are incorporated into an AMA model to test both the underlying mathematics of the analytical source reconstruction process, as well as the relevance of the technique as a whole towards SNP applications. These tests demonstrated that this approach is capable of accelerating far-field radiation modeling in SNP-relevant scenarios by factors of at least nine over purely eigenvalue-based scenarios without significantly sacrificing simulation accuracy.
Open rotor propulsors enable greatly increased effective bypass ratios over current aircraft engines, resulting in significantly improved efficiencies. One of the most promising of these geometries is the “open fan”, which consists of a single rotor followed by a single stator. This configuration will be referred to as an “open rotor stage” for design work at NASA. In this work we consider the multidisciplinary design and optimization of an open rotor stage using a variety of 2D and 3D techniques. The 2D aerodynamic techniques used for design include a 2D Trefftz plane method, axisymmetric throughflow, and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD. Aerodynamic performance is prioritized, while structural requirements are met and some acoustic considerations are included. Between the rotor, stator, and hub profiles, a total of 101 design variables are used. Differences in the process of designing an open rotor stage vs. designing other high-speed propellers are also discussed. The current design, the NASA Optimized Propulsor for Efficiency and Noise (N-OPEN-1), achieves 84.7% net efficiency as predicted by 3D CFD, with further improvements expected to be possible. This design makes effective use of a slower rotor and a less tip-loaded work distribution than typical single-rotation propellers, allowing the stator to produce 14.8% of the thrust. Laminar flow on the blades was responsible for a 1.7% efficiency benefit and warrants further study.
Open rotor propulsors enable greatly increased effective bypass ratios over current aircraft engines, resulting in significantly improved efficiencies. One of the most promising of these geometries is the “open fan”, which consists of a single rotor followed by a single stator. This configuration will be referred to as an “open rotor stage” for design work at NASA. In this work we consider the multidisciplinary design and optimization of an open rotor stage using a variety of 2D and 3D techniques. The 2D aerodynamic techniques used for design include a 2D Trefftz plane method, axisymmetric throughflow, and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD. Aerodynamic performance is prioritized, while structural requirements are met and some acoustic considerations are included. Between the rotor, stator, and hub profiles, a total of 101 design variables are used. Differences in the process of designing an open rotor stage vs. designing other high-speed propellers are also discussed. The current design, the NASA Optimized Propulsor for Efficiency and Noise (N-OPEN-1), achieves 84.7% net efficiency as predicted by 3D CFD, with further improvements expected to be possible. This design makes effective use of a slower rotor and a less tip-loaded work distribution than typical single-rotation propellers, allowing the stator to produce 14.8% of the thrust. Laminar flow on the blades was responsible for a 1.7% efficiency benefit and warrants further study.
A study was initiated to design and evaluate a new design concept for nickel-hydrogen cells. This concept involved constructing a battery in a bipolar stack with cells consisting of a one plate for each nickel and hydrogen electrode. Preliminary designs at the system level of this concept promised improvements in both volumetric and gravimetric energy densities, thermal management, life extension, costs, and peak power capability over more conventional designs. Test results were most encouraging. This preprototype battery, built with less than ideal components and hardware, exceeded expectations. A total of 2000 LEO cycles at 80 percent depth of discharge were accrued. A cycle life goal of 30,000 cycles appears achievable with minor design changes. These improvements include advanced technology nickel electrodes, insulated bipolar plates and specifically designed frames to minimize shunt currents. The discharge rate capability of this design exceeds 25C. At the 10C discharge rate, 80% of the battery capacity can be withdrawn in six minutes. This data shows that the bipolar design is well suited for those applications requiring high peak power pulses.
This work presents a multiscale modeling approach to predict the fracture strength of fibrous Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials. The model assumes that system failure is initiated at the joints between individual fibers. We investigated three distinct TPS compositions: amorphous silica, alumina and aluminosilicate fibers. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to determine the fracture strength values of these fiber joints for both material systems. These fracture strength values were then integrated into simulations of 3D randomly populated fiber structures, where tensile load transfer occurs through the fiber joints. These microscale properties are upscaled through a renormalization approach [1] to predict macroscale tensile strength of 3D random fiber networks, accounting for joint-dominated failure and effective load-bearing area. The study concludes by demonstrating the resulting strength variation as a function of material composition, fiber density, and morphology. We also show validation of results by comparing them against explicit fiber finite element (FE) modeling [2] where fiber joint fracture is represented by cohesive elements.
The needs and requirements for an electrochemical energy storage for deep space exploration is well explored. It is often understood that different mission sites and environmental conditions require different battery chemistries or technologies. Additionally, various engineering solutions are deployed to overcome specific chemical challenges. One often overlooked need is the “health” monitoring of an electrochemical storage system. The term generalized health monitoring, as envisioned in this work, refers to the monitoring of various aspects such as electrode health, electrolyte health, reaction pathway health, cooling system health, sensor health, and BMS health [1]. Generalized health monitoring allows mission leads, engineers, and scientists to incorporate flexibility in mission designs, make on-the-fly mission changes, and extend the duration of science missions. Moreover, it enables automation and data-driven decision-making without compromising safety and performance. Recently, our group developed a hierarchy of thermal reduced-order models (TROM) by combining a physics-based modeling approach and data-driven model reduction techniques applied to flight data [2]. The resulting TROMs were found to be not only accurate but also identifiable from the flight data. Consequently, the coefficient of variance of the model parameters is small over the course of hundreds of flights, allowing for monitoring the parameter evolution trajectories as the battery ages and degrades. These parameters constitute the metrics of the generalized health of a battery. Monitoring their evolution allows such models to be used for anomaly detection and prognostics, improving early detection of abnormal behavior and thus enabling timely maintenance, longer battery life, and enhanced battery safety. For this presentation, the practicality of the thermal model will be validated on a pack of 14cells under various topology configurations such as 1S14P, 2P7S, 7S2P, and 1P14S. It is well known that manufacturing and non-uniform aging lead to variability in the performance of a cell, which is exacerbated by cell balancing during active load. Additionally, in extreme scenarios, the paramount objective is to complete the mission, regardless of the stresses on the battery. Topology-induced balancing issues further stress the battery. The goal of this study is to determine if the noise (identifiability) in the reduced-order thermal model parameters is sensitive to topology, cell spacing, cooling strategy, and manufacturing or age variability. The variability in cells is considered by assuming a multimodal distribution for microscopic parameters of a cell (such as porosity, tortuosity, reaction kinetics, volumetric thermal conductivity, and volumetric heat capacity). The compounded effect of manufacturing variability, topological selection, cooling strategies, and cell balancing ages each cell in a battery differently. The study aims to clarify whether the challenge in extracting maximum information depends on the minimum number of sensors or models used for data extraction.
This work presents an application of Model Predictive Control to maintain long-term stability for a three-satellite formation around the asteroid Apophis via remote guidance. The mothership and two daughterships perform tomographic characterization with a bistatic radar. The mothership estimates the states of all three spacecraft and determines the necessary control to maintain the desired antipodal daughtership states. An Extended Kalman Filter estimates the mothership states. A Batch Least Squares algorithm estimates the daughtership states and performs maneuver reconstruction for the mothership-administered thrust commands under thruster and gravitational uncertainty. The formulation maintains the antipodal angle with growing instability amidst these uncertainties.
Advances in 3D Geometrical Designs and Cooling have played a significant role in improving the efficiency of turbomachinery. However, these advancements must be effectively translated back to the modeler. Machine learning can facilitate this transition. Specifically, machine learning–based loss models can bridge the gap between 3D and 1D designs, enabling modelers not only to predict velocity triangles but also to extract additional geometric features. Currently, the design tools used at NASA have not been updated to support such integration—until now. TurboDesign is an open-source, Python-based framework that replaces TD2 (LEW-11029-1) and AXOD2 (LEW-16323-1), both of which are radial equilibrium solvers for axial turbines. The goal of this update is to enable the integration of machine learning loss models into radial equilibrium equations. Additionally, TurboDesign is designed to support radial machines. This paper presents the governing equations, the assumptions underlying the code, the integration of legacy loss models, an example of machine learning model integration, and a validation comparison with CFD. All code, tutorials, and documentation are available at: https://www.github.com/nasa/turbo-design
Fiber-based materials are extensively used to protect spacecraft during entry. Insulative fibers, often in a fiber network or woven, provide rigidity, strength, and control of material anisotropy and density. Woven thermal protection materials, such as ADEPT (Adaptable, Deployable Entry and Placement Technology), 3D-MAT (3-Dimensional Multifunctional Ablative Thermal Protection), and 3MDCP (3D Woven Mid-Density Carbon Phenolic), enable missions with stronger and denser materials for entry profiles with high shear and heat flux. Vulnerabilities to woven thermal protection materials include manufacturing-induced material property variation, and impact from micrometeoroids. Simulating woven materials under these conditions require models that can resolve hierarchal structures, thermomechanical behavior, and failure. To address this, we simulate weave thermal conduction and mechanical deformation. We simulate the full weave with a coarse-grained yarn model is presented. The model combines a validated, high-resolution single 3MDCP yarn model and phenolic resin model. Instead of modeling every fiber, each yarn ply with order 10, instead of order 1000, fibers. The discrete element bonded particle model (DEM-BPM) of fibers captures the thermal and mechanical behavior within and between fibers. We study the proportion of heat transfer and stress via the contact network, fiber bonds, and overall weave geometry.