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At least 19 records

Model run output for WM-ABM 2024 HESS Publication

Model output for computational experiments introducing WM-ABM. See associated HESS publication here: https://egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/2023/egusphere-2023-1604/ all_nldas_cdl_data_v3.txt - Cropland Data Layer data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution for input into the PMP calibration process. Variables include NLDAS ID, crop type, year, the count of pixels in the grid cell of the crop type, CDL crop ID, and GCAM crop ID. 20230115 ABM runs - WM-ABM model outputs for various scenarios described in HESS publication. If multiple versions exist (e.g., v2, v3, etc.) latest version indicates dataset generated for manuscript. The "baseline" run is the primary run, where as the "memXX" runs indicate sensitivity runs testing different parameters of agent memory. Output files starting with "abm_results_" include groundwater irrigated acres and surface water irrigated acres for each farm/agent combination. Other CSV outputs provide summary statistics of various agent and water shortage outcomes, used for generation of figures in the HESS manuscript.

ABM↗

Linking transportation agent-based model ($\mathrm{ABM}$) outputs with micro-urban social types ($\mathrm{MUSTs}$) via typology transfer for improved community relevance

The human relationship with transportation is shaped by social, economic, demographic, and urban form variables, or socio-spatial factors. The spatial dynamics of these are key to generating and interpreting outputs of transportation models that are most relevant for a community and the diverse mobility needs of its members. Here we present a typology transfer framework, grounded in socio-spatial dynamics shaping people's mobility, to take transportation-themed regional mobility model outcomes, in this case from two agent-based models (ABMs), and extrapolate them to other cities, with less time and resource intensity than new ABM development. The typology transfer process first identifies micro-urban social types (MUSTs) using socio-spatial factors, then defines city types based on spatial patterns of MUSTs to assess across which cities transfer results are likely to best hold. Lastly, a typology transfer multiplier matrix extrapolates a given variable, in our case the Mobility Energy Productivity (MEP) metric, to another city. The full process demonstration uses ABM results from Chicago (POLARIS model) and San Francisco (BEAM model), applying them to New York City. We discuss how MEP or other outputs can be appropriately estimated and used for integrated, human-centered mobility analysis. Key findings include that this MUST framework of user-defined dependent and independent variables allows tailoring ABM results and interpretations to specific community needs and data availability. Findings clarify that positive outcomes can be targeted towards user groups, based on sociospatial characteristics, using a typology approach, such as inclusive access to mobility choices, transportation affordability, and greater efficiency in resource use.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Integrated GW Farm ABM

This Data Repository includes data used for the integrated groundwater- farm ABM model, raw model output from scenario ensemble, and processed outputs that isolate the groundwater storage depletion outcomes for the 35,000 farm cells. Model Inputs: Farm ABM Inputs: This folder contains the input data used by the integrated groundwater - farm ABM modelling script (Python file) used for the high performance computing (HPC) experiments. The sub-folder "data inputs" contains all of the farm attribute data, while the three files in the folder have the hydrogeological data lookup table (NLDAS Cost Curve Attributes.csv), a lookup table (Theis well function table.csv) for the groundwater cost curve function, and the farm indexes and corresponding NLDAS ids for all of the cells run in this experiment (nldas farms subset final.csv). NLDAS Cost curve hydrogeological data: Hydrogeological data aggregated to 1/8 degree resolution and aligned with the NLDAS grid. Parameters include: water depth below ground surface [meters], subsurface porosity [unitless], aquifer depth from ground surface to aquifer bottom [meters], annual average recharge (USGS: mm, Doll: meters), and three different hydraulic conductivity (K) values (meters/day). The three K values represent the mean value from Gleeson et al. (2018), one standard deviation above the mean from Gleeson et al. (2018), and the de Graaf et al. 2020 modifications to certain lithologies. Additional information about these datasets and their processing are documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). Output: Raw outputs: This folder contains a .zip file that has model outputs for the entire scenario ensemble. There is one csv for each farm id, using the format "farm farmid cases.csv". The relationship between the farm id and NLDAS id is defined by the "nldas farms subset final.csv" located in the Farm ABM Inputs folder. Each csv has 625 rows, corresponding to 625 combinations of different scenario parameter values. Each row (scenario) represents the outcome of a 100 year simulation. Columns define scenario settings and summary statistics for each scenario. The first four columns define the scenario settings: "hydro ratio," "econ ratio," "K scenario," and "gamma scenario." The hydro and econ ratios are values passed to the modeling script that influence multipliers for other model parameters, as documented in the supplement to Yoon et al. 2025 (in review). The gamma multiplier is a coefficient multiplier applied to the baseline gamma values (values below 1 represent lower unobserved costs compared to baseline, values above 1 represent higher costs). The K scenario names represent K values of: "low": 0.5 m/d, "int 1": 2.5 m/d, "int 2": 10 m/d, "high": 50 m/d, and "gleeson": mean Gleeson K value. "Perc vol depleted" is the fraction of groundwater depleted at the end of the 100 simulation. Processed Output: Derived depletion outcomes from raw outputs: All of the individual csv files from the Raw outputs were aggregated into a single file that has the scenario settings and fraction depletion "Perc vol depleted" for every farm cell, for every scenario. The other two files define relationships between the farm id, NLDAS id, and local and major aquifer units, used for aquifer-level depletion analysis.

Agent based modeling↗

CE ABM (Circular Economy Agent-Based Model) [SWR 20-113]

The CE ABM framework aims to evaluate the techno-economic, market, and social conditions that maximize the value retention and minimize raw material inputs of different circular economy (CE) strategies. Several types of agents are defined in the model, such as asset owners, service providers, recyclers, and manufacturers and modeled CE strategies are design-for-circularity, products and components reuse, and recycling. In addition to techno-economic relations, the CE ABM framework accounts for behavioral factors such as social norms and trust. (Title previously known as "ABSiCE (Agent-Based Simulations of the Circular Economy)". Updated Oct 27, 2023)

Walzberg, Julien↗

Using Agent Based Modeling (ABM) to Develop Cultural Interaction Simulations

Today, most cultural training is based on or built around "cultural engagements" or discrete interactions between the individual learner and one or more cultural "others". Often, success in the engagement is the end or the objective. In reality, these interactions usually involve secondary and tertiary effects with potentially wide ranging consequences. The concern is that learning culture within a strict engagement context might lead to "checklist" cultural thinking that will not empower learners to understand the full consequence of their actions. We propose the use of agent based modeling (ABM) to collect, store, and, simulating the effects of social networks, promulgate engagement effects over time, distance, and consequence. The ABM development allows for rapid modification to re-create any number of population types, extending the applicability of the model to any requirement for social modeling.

Drucker, Nick↗

plastic-abm [SWR 23-74]

The plastic agent-based model (ABM) built with the MESA python library simulates agents decisions to recycle plastic waste according to an extended version of the theory of planned behavior.

Walzberg, Julien↗

Aerobraking Maneuver (ABM) Report Generator

abmREPORT Version 3.1 is a Perl script that extracts vital summarization information from the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter (MRO) aerobraking ABM build process. This information facilitates sequence reviews, and provides a high-level summarization of the sequence for mission management. The script extracts information from the ENV, SSF, FRF, SCMFmax, and OPTG files and burn magnitude configuration files and presents them in a single, easy-to-check report that provides the majority of the parameters necessary for cross check and verification during the sequence review process. This means that needed information, formerly spread across a number of different files and each in a different format, is all available in this one application. This program is built on the capabilities developed in dragReport and then the scripts evolved as the two tools continued to be developed in parallel.

Fisher, Forrest↗

ABM Drag_Pass Report Generator

dragREPORT software was developed in parallel with abmREPORT, which is described in the preceding article. Both programs were built on the capabilities created during that process. This tool generates a drag_pass report that summarizes vital information from the MRO aerobreaking drag_pass build process to facilitate both sequence reviews and provide a high-level summarization of the sequence for mission management. The script extracts information from the ENV, SSF, FRF, SCMFmax, and OPTG files, presenting them in a single, easy-to-check report providing the majority of parameters needed for cross check and verification as part of the sequence review process. Prior to dragReport, all the needed information was spread across a number of different files, each in a different format. This software is a Perl script that extracts vital summarization information and build-process details from a number of source files into a single, concise report format used to aid the MPST sequence review process and to provide a high-level summarization of the sequence for mission management reference. This software could be adapted for future aerobraking missions to provide similar reports, review and summarization information.

Fisher, Forest↗

Examining the Relationships Between Education, Social Networks and Democratic Support With ABM

This paper introduces an agent-based model that explores the relationships between education, social networks, and support for democratic ideals. This study examines two factors thai affect democratic support, education, and social networks. Current theory concerning these two variables suggests that positive relationships exist between education and democratic support and between social networks and the spread of ideas. The model contains multiple variables of democratic support, two of which are evaluated through experimentation. The model allows individual entities within the system to make "decisions" about their democratic support independent of one another. The agent based approach also allows entities to utilize their social networks to spread ideas. Current theory supports experimentation results. In add~ion , these results show the model is capable of reproducing real world outcomes. This paper addresses the model creation process and the experimentation procedure, as well as future research avenues and potential shortcomings of the model

Drucker, Nick↗

Circular Economy Modeling Efforts at NREL: Circular Economy Lifecycle Analysis and Visualization (CELAVI) and the Circular Economy Agent-Based Model (ABM)

Circular Economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from economic growth and resource use. While CE economic and environmental benefits are often touted by its proponents, increased circularity and improved sustainability do not necessarily go hand-in-hand. The Circular Economy Lifecycle Assessment and Visualization (CELAVI) framework simulates the transition of renewable energy technology supply chains towards circularity and quantifies spatially explicit environmental impacts and supply chain costs. Using wind blade end-of-life (EOL) management as a case study, this presentation will highlight CELAVI's features. Furthermore, envisioned extension to the framework could improve the stakeholder decision model by accounting for logistical and other factors. The CELAVI framework could be leveraged to answer crucial questions regarding renewables EOL management.

circular economy↗

Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life

Agent-based models (ABMs) in transportation modeling simulate activity and travel decisions at the disaggregate level of households and individuals. To do this, ABMs require detailed and realistic information on agents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics. Various synthetic population generators have been proposed to address this need. However, most of those currently in practice are cross-sectional in nature and do not account for the dynamics within households and individuals as they progress through life events over time. This is a major shortcoming, as literature has shown that transportation decisions are affected by the transition between and co-occurrence of life cycle events. While some demographic evolution simulators have been proposed to address this issue, they are developed using cross-sectional data and capture only a small set of life cycle events and their interdependence. Addressing these drawbacks, we propose a demographic microsimulator (DEMOS) that captures the “continuum of life” by considering a range of household- and individual-level life cycle events. DEMOS is developed using the Panel Survey of Income Dynamics, one of the world’s longest-running longitudinal surveys. The DEMOS submodels consider key life cycle events that are influenced by agents’ demographic variables. DEMOS is applied to evolve the population of the San Francisco Bay Area over a 9-year horizon. Results demonstrate how DEMOS generates life trajectories and how DEMOS outputs match the observed demographic trends. DEMOS is expected to enable longitudinal analysis in the context of ABMs and expand ABMs analyses relating to dynamic processes such as household-level vehicle transactions.

Demographic evolution↗

Building and experimenting with an agent-based model to study the population-level impact of CommunityRx, a clinic-based community resource referral intervention

CommunityRx (CRx), an information technology intervention, provides patients with a personalized list of healthful community resources (HealtheRx). In repeated clinical studies, nearly half of those who received clinical “doses” of the HealtheRx shared their information with others (“social doses”). Clinical trial design cannot fully capture the impact of information diffusion, which can act as a force multiplier for the intervention. Furthermore, experimentation is needed to understand how intervention delivery can optimize social spread under varying circumstances. To study information diffusion from CRx under varying conditions, we built an agent-based model (ABM). This study describes the model building process and illustrates how an ABM provides insight about information diffusion through in silico experimentation. To build the ABM, we constructed a synthetic population (“agents”) using publicly-available data sources. Using clinical trial data, we developed empirically-informed processes simulating agent activities, resource knowledge evolution and information sharing. Using RepastHPC and chiSIM software, we replicated the intervention in silico, simulated information diffusion processes, and generated emergent information diffusion networks. The CRx ABM was calibrated using empirical data to replicate the CRx intervention in silico. We used the ABM to quantify information spread via social versus clinical dosing then conducted information diffusion experiments, comparing the social dosing effect of the intervention when delivered by physicians, nurses or clinical clerks. The synthetic population (N = 802,191) exhibited diverse behavioral characteristics, including activity and knowledge evolution patterns. In silico delivery of the intervention was replicated with high fidelity. Large-scale information diffusion networks emerged among agents exchanging resource information. Varying the propensity for information exchange resulted in networks with different topological characteristics. Community resource information spread via social dosing was nearly 4 fold that from clinical dosing alone and did not vary by delivery mode. This study, using CRx as an example, demonstrates the process of building and experimenting with an ABM to study information diffusion from, and the population-level impact of, a clinical information-based intervention. While the focus of the CRx ABM is to recreate the CRx intervention in silico, the general process of model building, and computational experimentation presented is generalizable to other large-scale ABMs of information diffusion.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Ten questions concerning agent-based modeling of occupant behavior for energy and environmental performance of buildings

We report the complexity of occupant behavior is one of the major contributors to uncertainty in building performance simulation. Agent-based modeling (ABM), a computational simulation technique, has gained attention in the occupant modeling field due to its capability and flexibility to capture the heterogeneity and dynamics of human behavior and the emergent effects. While multiple efforts in the past decade have demonstrated the usefulness of the ABM approach for simulating occupants and their impacts on building performance, several crucial matters in the ABM research still remain unexplored. This paper presents ten questions that highlight the most important issues regarding ABM research and applications for occupant behavior in the context of building performance simulation. The questions and answers aim to provide insights into current and future ABM research, and more importantly to inspire new significant questions from young researchers in the field. This research is part of the IEA EBC Annex 79 project, occupant-centric building design and operation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Janus: A Python Package for Agent-Based Modeling of Land Use and Land Cover Change

Janus is an open source Python package for agent-based modeling (ABM) of land use and land cover change (LULCC). Many ABMs of LULCC have been created across platforms, some of which are not ideal for large scale, high resolution scenarios. This model provides a simple object-oriented framework for creating ABMs specific to LULCC. The organizational philosophy of the modeling framework is to create software objects (agents) that are associated with specific and contextual attributes which are isolated from where those agents exist in the spatial setting of the model, yet provide clear linkages between the agent, their environment, and other agents in the simulation. In this way, the framework allows for assembly of LULCC ABMs with low (programmatic) overhead, making the models extensible and providing clear mechanisms for integrating them with process-oriented biophysical models. Provided with Janus is a suite of geospatial data preprocessing tools that can use arbitrary land cover products as an input. Crop choice decisions are based on potential crop prices, these can be created synthetically, or drawn from integrated human-Earth systems models such as the GCAM. Janus is publicly accessible through GitHub and provides an example dataset for testing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A subcellular biochemical model for T6SS dynamics reveals winning competitive strategies

Abstract The type VI secretion system (T6SS) is a broadly distributed interbacterial weapon that can be used to eliminate competing bacterial populations. Although unarmed target populations are typically used to study T6SS function in vitro, bacteria most likely encounter other T6SS-armed competitors in nature. However, the connection between subcellular details of the T6SS and the outcomes of such mutually lethal battles is not well understood. Here, we incorporate biological data derived from natural competitors of Vibrio fischeri light organ symbionts to build a biochemical model for T6SS at the single-cell level, which we then integrate into an agent-based model (ABM). Using the ABM, we isolate and experiment with strain-specific physiological differences between competitors in ways not possible with biological samples to identify winning strategies for T6SS-armed populations. Through in vitro experiments, we discover that strain-specific differences exist in T6SS activation speed. ABM simulations corroborate that faster activation is dominant in determining survival during competition. Once competitors are fully activated, the energy required for T6SS creates a tipping point where increased weapon building and firing becomes too costly to be advantageous. Through ABM simulations, we identify the threshold where this transition occurs in the T6SS parameter space. We also find that competitive outcomes depend on the geometry of the battlefield: unarmed target cells survive at the edges of a range expansion where unlimited territory can be claimed. Alternatively, competitions within a confined space, much like the light organ crypts where natural V. fischeri compete, result in the rapid elimination of the unarmed population.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling of hepatitis B virus infection spread in primary human hepatocytes

ABSTRACT Chronic hepatitis B virus (HBV) infection poses a significant global health threat, causing severe liver diseases including cirrhosis and hepatocellular carcinoma. We characterized HBV DNA kinetics in primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) over 32 days post-inoculation (p.i.) and modified ourin-vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to gain insights into the HBV lifecycle and spreadin vitro. Parallel PHH cultures were mock-treated or treated with HBV entry inhibitor Myr-preS1 (6.25 µg/mL) was initiated 24 h p.i. In untreated PHH, three viral DNA kinetic patterns were identified: (i) an initial decline, followed by (ii) rapid amplification and (iii) slower amplification/accumulation. In the presence of Myr-preS1, viral DNA and infected cell numbers in phase 3 were effectively blocked, with minimal to no increase. This suggests that phase 2 represents viral amplification in initially infected cells, while phase 3 corresponds to viral spread to naïve cells. The ABM reproduced well the HBV kinetic patterns observed and predicted that the viral eclipse phase lasts between 18 and 38 h. After the eclipse phase, the viral production rate increased over time, starting with a slow production cycle of 1 virion per day, which gradually accelerated to 1 virion per hour after 3 days. Approximately 4 days later, virion production reached a steady state production rate of 4 virions/h. The estimated median efficacy of Myr-preS1 in blocking HBV spread was 91% (range: 90–92%). The HBV kinetics and the predicted estimates of the HBV eclipse phase duration and HBV production cycles in PHH are similar to those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers. IMPORTANCE While primary human hepatocytes (PHHs) are the most physiologically relevant culture system for studying HBV infectionin vitro, a comprehensive understanding of HBV infection kinetics and spread in PHH is lacking. In this study, we characterize HBV viral kinetics and modify ourin vivoagent-based modeling (ABM) to provide quantitative insights into the HBV production cycle and viral spread in PHH. The ABM provides an estimate of the HBV eclipse phase duration, HBV production cycles, and Myr-preS1 efficacy in blocking HBV spread in PHH. The results resemble those predicted in uPA/SCID mice with human livers, demonstrating that estimated HBV infection kinetic parameters in PHHin vitromirror those observed in thein vivoHBV infection chimeric mouse model.

Virology↗

Application of Machine Learning Techniques to an Agent-Based Model of Pantoea

Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a powerful simulation technique which describes a complex dynamic system based on its interacting constituent entities. While the flexibility of ABM enables broad application, the complexity of real-world models demands intensive computing resources and computational time; however, a metamodel may be constructed to gain insight at less computational expense. Here, we developed a model in NetLogo to describe the growth of a microbial population consisting of Pantoea . We applied 13 parameters that defined the model and actively changed seven of the parameters to modulate the evolution of the population curve in response to these changes. We efficiently performed more than 3,000 simulations using a Python wrapper, NL4Py . Upon evaluation of the correlation between the active parameters and outputs by random forest regression, we found that the parameters which define the depth of medium and glucose concentration affect the population curves significantly. Subsequently, we constructed a metamodel, a dense neural network, to predict the simulation outputs from the active parameters and found that it achieves high prediction accuracy, reaching an R 2 coefficient of determination value up to 0.92. Our approach of using a combination of ABM with random forest regression and neural network reduces the number of required ABM simulations. The simplified and refined metamodels may provide insights into the complex dynamic system before their transition to more sophisticated models that run on high-performance computing systems. The ultimate goal is to build a bridge between simulation and experiment, allowing model validation by comparing the simulated data to experimental data in microbiology.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗