Surrogate modeling of advanced computer simulations using deep Gaussian processes
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Advanced computing at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) had an exciting 2021. More than 300 projects advanced the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) mission. This annual report highlights capabilities, project highlights, innovations, etc. to showcase the great work conducted within Advanced Computing at NREL.
Over the course of this three-year grant, the Council on Competitiveness (Council) hosted six meetings of its Advanced Computing Roundtable made up of experts from a broad cross section of advanced computing users and manufacturers, and four Advanced Computing for Competitiveness Regional Forums to explore issues related to advanced computing in regions, states and localities. More than two hundred experts, stakeholders and policymakers from the federal and state levels participated in this work and provided their time and expertise to help define the opportunity in advanced computing and the barriers to it reaching its full potential as a game-changing competitive advantage for the United States economy and national security. Building on the insights of the Council’s Advanced Computing Roundtable and findings and recommendations from the four U.S. Department of Energy-supported Forums, the Council has identified several broad policy objectives for the United States related to advanced computing leadership and implementation. The United States must: Compete at the high end of advanced computing. Continue investing to be a technology leader as the world moves toward exascale computing, including in hardware, software and applications. America also must lead in strategic areas like extending Moore’s Law and quantum computing. Improve the ability of HPC-using firms to leverage advanced computing. The Council recommends steps to improve computational skills, increase industry partnerships with laboratories and academia, and expand and strengthen software partnerships. Regulatory agencies also should accelerate efforts to use modeling and simulation within the regulatory process. Expand the number of HPC-using companies in America. Too few firms are able to leverage advanced computing to innovate and compete. Federal, state and local economic development efforts should be utilized to lower barriers and teach small and medium-sized firms, particularly manufacturers, to use advanced modeling, simulation and analytics. Coordinate federal action. Federal agencies should continue to act in a coordinated fashion on advanced computing challenges through the Joint Program Office for Strategic Computing. Leverage HPC to compete in strategic technologies and applications. Leadership in advanced computing is tightly linked to leadership in artificial intelligence, the Internet of Things, cybersecurity, additive manufacturing and other emerging technologies. Public and private sector leaders should collaborate on research and partnership efforts that ensure world-class computing environments for strategic technology leadership.
This report highlights significant strides made by Oak Ridge National Laboratory’s Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) in advancing computational research and infrastructure. Through the Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE) strategic initiative, OLCF has been successfully integrated with Doe’s Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) program, establishing itself as a critical framework for enhancing scientific computing capabilities across various domains. This report outlines the activities, accomplishments, and future directions of ACE, emphasizing its role in developing cutting-edge technologies, supporting science pilots, and fostering collaborations that drive scientific innovation.
In fiscal year (FY) 2024, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) took a major leap forward with the completed full buildout of Kestrel, the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy's newest high-performance computing (HPC) system. Kestrel is already supporting science across the portfolio, bringing roughly 44 petaflops of computing power, which is more than five times the capacity of our previous supercomputer, Eagle. By delivering greater GPU capacity, Kestrel enables faster progress in artificial intelligence (AI) and opens new avenues in energy research - from defining long-term planning scenarios to accommodate a growing power system to material discovery to improving energy efficiency in photovoltaics (PV). Across the portfolio, research is being accelerated by Kestrel's impressive power. During FY24, 427 projects and more than 700 researchers used NREL's HPC, supporting the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy across 13 funding areas. Through these collaborations, researchers produced more than 450 technical outputs, including 195 articles in peer-reviewed publications, pushing the boundaries of science and engineering. This year's report features new sections spotlighting the expanding roles of Artificial Intelligence and Accelerated Computing. We also introduce an early career section to celebrate the accomplishments of our up-and-coming researchers, whose pioneering work is shaping the future of energy. We hope you enjoy the new insights and discoveries highlighted in these pages.
The application of data science in cancer research has been boosted by major advances in three primary areas: (1) Data: diversity, amount, and availability of biomedical data; (2) Advances in Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms that enable learning from complex, large-scale data; and (3) Advances in computer architectures allowing unprecedented acceleration of simulation and machine learning algorithms. These advances help build in silico ML models that can provide transformative insights from data including: molecular dynamics simulations, next-generation sequencing, omics, imaging, and unstructured clinical text documents. Unique challenges persist, however, in building ML models related to cancer, including: (1) access, sharing, labeling, and integration of multimodal and multi-institutional data across different cancer types; (2) developing AI models for cancer research capable of scaling on next generation high performance computers; and (3) assessing robustness and reliability in the AI models. In this paper, we review the National Cancer Institute (NCI) -Department of Energy (DOE) collaboration, Joint Design of Advanced Computing Solutions for Cancer (JDACS4C), a multi-institution collaborative effort focused on advancing computing and data technologies to accelerate cancer research on three levels: molecular, cellular, and population. This collaboration integrates various types of generated data, pre-exascale compute resources, and advances in ML models to increase understanding of basic cancer biology, identify promising new treatment options, predict outcomes, and eventually prescribe specialized treatments for patients with cancer.
This report presents the project Idaho National Laboratory conducted for Nuclear Regulatory Commission to explore the advanced computational tools and techniques, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), for operating nuclear plants. The report reviews the nuclear data sources, with the focus on the operating experience data, that could be applied by advanced computational tools and techniques. Plant-specific and generic (national and international) data from different sources are described. The report describes the relationships between statistics and AI/ML and then introduces the most widely used AI/ML algorithms in both supervised and unsupervised learning. The report reviews the recent applications of advanced computational tools and techniques in various fields of nuclear industry, such as reactor system design and analysis, plant operation and maintenance, and nuclear safety and risk analysis. Finally, the report presents the insights from the project on the potential applicability of AI/ML techniques in improving advanced computational capabilities, how the advanced tools and techniques could contribute to the understanding of safety and risk, and what information would be needed to provide meaningful insights to decision makers. The report also documents an NRC survey on the current state of commercial nuclear power operations relative to the use of AI and ML tools as well as the role of AI/ML tools in nuclear power operations was published by the NRC as in FRN NRC-2021-0048 in April 2021. A summary of the survey including the survey questions, survey participants, survey responses, and the conclusions and insights derived from the survey is provided in the report. Finally, the report investigates potential applications of using AI/ML in operating NPPs and advanced reactors (both advanced LWRs and advanced NLWRs) to improve nuclear plant safety and efficiency. Three main application fields are defined and discussed: (1) plant safety and security assessments; (2) plant degradation modeling, fault and accident diagnosis and prognosis; and (3) plant operation and maintenance efficiency improvement.
In 2023, advanced computing saw the arrival of Kestrel, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) newest high-performance computing (HPC) system. Kestrel will accelerate clean energy research at a pace and scale more than five times greater than Eagle, with approximately 44 petaflops of computing power. Kestrel's heterogeneous architecture - which includes both CPU-only and GPU-accelerated nodes - is designed to bring a much greater GPU capacity to EERE workloads compared to Eagle, enabling rapidly advancing applications in artificial intelligence and expanding research in new directions for computing. In Fiscal Year (FY) 2023, 333 projects utilized NREL's HPC system, advancing the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) mission across 13 funding areas. Cross-disciplinary collaboration among researchers yielded more than 800 technical outputs, including 177 peer-reviewed journal articles in FY 2023. All this great work continues to advance the science of energy efficiency and renewable energy. This report highlights research that utilized HPC resources in FY 2023.
As the landscape of computational science evolves, the Department of Energy (DOE) is reimagining the roles of its large-scale computing facilities to meet emerging research challenges. The Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) program aims to transform how experiments are designed, conducted, and shared, with significant impacts on all stakeholders. In response, the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) has established the Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE), a strategic framework to prepare its hardware, software, and experimental capabilities for the IRI era. ACE focuses on integrating novel compute environments, orchestrating advanced workflows, and developing foundational technologies, ensuring a seamless transition to IRI while accelerating scientific discovery. This paper outlines ACE's role in advancing OLCF's mission and its impact on the future of computational science.
The growing demand for real-time analysis, experimental steering, and decision-making in scientific workflows has created a need for tightly coupled integrations between experimental facilities and high-performance computing (HPC) systems. The Department of Energy’s Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) initiative highlights data streaming as a key capability for enabling memory-to-memory data transfers, bypassing the limitations of traditional store-and-forward models. SciStream is a toolkit developed by researchers at Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to support such streaming by addressing cross-domain security, delegated authentication, and application transparency. We deployed and evaluated SciStream on the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility’s (OLCF) Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE) infrastructure, leveraging the Olivine OpenShift cluster and its high-bandwidth Data Streaming Nodes (DSNs) as gateway nodes. Our evaluation included synthetic streaming workloads derived from IRI science workflows, a streaming simulator, and integration with RabbitMQ to handle low-level messaging. This report documents the deployment process, performance evaluation, and challenges encountered, along with opportunities for future improvements.
National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL) high-performance computing (HPC), efficient data center operation, and state-of-the-art data visualization powered over 300 clean energy projects in Fiscal Year 2022 (FY22). 555 scientists and engineers utilized HPC resources to assess and integrate data into their research. The report highlights the arrival of new HPC Kestrel in 2023, the contributions of the Insight Center, and researchers looking into bias in artificial intelligence, alongside key research collaborations using advanced computing.
We examine a multi-modal approach to educating and training users of an advanced computing technology testbed at the Institute for Advanced Computational Science at Stony Brook University. Ookami provides researchers worldwide with access to 176 Fujitsu A64FX compute nodes, this being the same processor technology powering the Japanese Fugaku supercomputer, the fastest computer in the world since June 2020. However, achieving high-performance on this Arm-based, leadership computing technology requires that users be familiar with details of computer architecture, performance analysis and modeling, and high-performance programming models that are commonly omitted in introductory programming courses. Indeed, regardless of their seniority, many of the testbed users are surprisingly unfamiliar with basic concepts such as vectorization, pipelining, latency/bandwidth, roofline models, computing energy/power, threads, and non-uniform memory access. These same concepts also pervade mainstream x86 technologies, so this is of widespread concern. Due to the national/global nature of our user community that is also very diverse in both discipline and experience, the inability to offer formal classes, and our experience that most people do not tend to read online documentation or training materials in sufficient depth, we have consciously employed multiple approaches that heavily emphasize (online) personal interactions and transfer of skills. Online documentation has been organized around best-practices and FAQs; twice-weekly hackathons and office hours via Zoom enable deep dives by both the team and the user community with multiple broad benefits; a Slack channel provides both real time and archived answers and discussions; and workshops, training and webinars target community needs as they arise. Furthermore, the perspective that these tools are being used in an educational setting rather than just for project communication makes them more effective and contributes to community success.
To safely and reliably operate without a human driver, connected and automated vehicles (CAVs) require more advanced computing hardware and software solutions than are implemented today in vehicles that provide driver-assistance features. A workshop was held to discuss advanced microelectronics and computing approaches that can help meet future energy and computational requirements for CAVs. Workshop questions were posed as follows: will highly automated vehicles be viable with conventional computing approaches or will they require a step-change in computing; what are the energy requirements to support on-board sensing and computing; and what advanced computing approaches could reduce the energy requirements while meeting their computational requirements? At present, there is no clear convergence in the computing architecture for highly automated vehicles. However, workshop participants generally agreed that there is a need to improve the computing performance per watt by at least 10x to advance the degree of automation. Participants suggested that DOE and the national laboratories could play a near-term role by developing benchmarks for determining and comparing CAV computing performance, developing public data sets to support algorithm and software development, and contributing precompetitive advancements in energy efficient computing.
Dynamic contingency analysis tool (DCAT) has been developed to assess the impact and likelihood of extreme contingencies and potential cascading events across their systems and interconnections. By including more customized protection models and corrective actions into the Windows-based commercial tools, DCAT can help operators understand the cascading behavior and find mitigation approaches to reduce the risk of cascading outages in a more realistic manner. In order to further enhance the capability of DCAT, this paper presents a design of an advanced computing framework that enables DCAT to run on a cluster machine to improve its computational performance. This framework is generic and can be applied to other Windows-based simulation tools to fill the technical gap of applying advanced computing technology to vendors' Windows-based tools. The preliminary tests using medium to large power systems have shown the effectiveness of this framework and its potential for accelerating the adoption of advanced computing in utilities.
In Fiscal Year (FY) 2025, the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR) continued to advance computing as a cornerstone of energy innovation, expanding the Kestrel high-performance computing (HPC) system to 56 peak petaflops. This growth strengthened Kestrel's role as a national asset for applied energy research, enabling larger, more complex simulations and accelerating the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) methods across the laboratory's computing portfolio. In FY 2025, AI was a component of most projects running on Kestrel, underscoring its central role in modern energy science and engineering. Kestrel supported a broad and diverse set of 507 modeling and simulation projects, engaging 855 researchers across the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) Office of Critical Minerals and Energy Innovation (CMEI) portfolio and other offices, as well as partners from industry, academia, and utilities. These efforts span critical materials discovery, energy systems modeling, grid modernization, advanced manufacturing, and other areas essential to strengthening U.S. energy security and competitiveness. Together, these collaborations produced 708 technical outputs, including 293 peer-reviewed publications, reflecting both the depth and impact of the science enabled by NLR's computing capabilities. This year's report highlights the growing importance and benefit of AI throughout NLR's research programs and features work by early career researchers who are helping shape the future of computing-enabled energy innovation. Explore these sections and the many project successes captured in the pages that follow.
The advent of widespread use of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) models in science, coupled with fast data production rates of scientific instruments strain the traditional batch-oriented high-performance computing (HPC) environment. As scientific exploration continues to require more data and faster processing and analysis, new emerging technologies and capabilities to enable cross-facility and time-sensitive workflows are required for seamless integration of HPC and experimental facilities. The Advanced Computing Ecosystem (ACE) is a strategic initiative within the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF) established in 2024 to support the development of cutting-edge technologies to advance computational research and infrastructure at OLCF and across the Department of Energy (DOE). Several DOE initiatives are spearheading the evolution of the scientific landscape by blurring facility boundaries and connecting the user facilities to advance scientific capabilities and ensure energy dominance. The DOE Integrated Research Infrastructure (IRI) program is one example that is laying a foundation to support complex cross-facility workflows. The IRI program aims to integrate diverse computational resources, data infrastructures, and scientific instruments to facilitate collaboration and accelerate scientific discovery. The Interconnected Science Ecosystem (INTERSECT) initiative at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) is another example that aims to revolutionize scientific research through AI-driven, interconnected autonomous laboratories and research facilities. Finally, the American Science Cloud (AmSC), recently announced in the “One Big Beautiful Bill”, aims to leverage prior infrastructure efforts of the IRI and automation and AI efforts of INTERSECT (and others) to build a federated, AI-augmented AmSC platform to unify the DOE’s computing, experimental, and data resources to catalyze scientific innovation.
The Energy Efficient Mobility Systems (EEMS) technology landscape is complex and rapidly evolving, which provides both tremendous opportunities and formidable challenges. Significant alterations to the mobility landscape are underway due to the advent of vehicle and infrastructure connectivity, autonomous driving, and rapid passenger- and freight-vehicle electrification. Advanced computing will play an increasingly important role in enabling the EEMS program to understand and identify the most important levers to improve the energy productivity of future integrated mobility systems. It is also driving new approaches to mobility and the research to unlock an affordable, efficient, safe, and accessible transportation future. Driving much of this change is the collection, analysis, and strategic use of massive amounts of diverse, complex data from infrastructure and vehicles with on-board sensors and data storage and transmission capabilities. Diverse and representative data are key to implementing approaches to maximize mobility energy productivity. While high-fidelity modeling of integrated transportation networks has strengthened our understanding of dynamic movement and behavior patterns, existing tools must be expanded beyond their current focus. This work necessitates data infrastructure investments (e.g., secure-streaming data platforms driven by ubiquitous sensors and video analytics) as well as investments in critical capabilities for large-scale automated analysis and organization using modern machine learning, statistics, and artificial intelligence. Other chief needs include agile, large-scale storage that can be quickly searched and queried for relevant data to support validation and model development, data-sharing agreements, and formatting standards for key data types. The future of public transit must be explored in greater detail, research must inform design, and opportunities must be identified for improving the mobility productivity of public transit in both urban and rural America.
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