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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

AGR-1 UCO Kernel Phase Analysis Imaging Archive

UCO kernels in tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) particles consist of a heterogeneous mixture of uranium oxide and uranium carbide. During the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification (AGR) Program, mean kernel composition was specified based on bulk measurements of uranium, oxygen, and carbon content, as well as the resulting O/U, C/U, and O+C/U ratios. Further development of quality control characterization methods has resulted in a method for more direct measurement of phase fractions on a per-kernel basis using optical microscopy of polished kernel cross sections. This report provides benchmark values for this analysis method when applied to kernels from the AGR-1 campaign and to the raw images used.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Post-irradiation 1600°C Heating Test of AGR-1 UCO Fuel Kernels

The Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification (AGR) Program was established to perform research and development on tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated-particle fuel to support deployment of high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) . This talk will discuss the results from a post-irradiation heating test of five individual fuel kernels extracted from four TRISO fuel particles that were deconsolidated from an irradiated AGR-1 fuel compact.

heating test↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of temperature variations on BISON predictions of Ag release in AGR-1 and AGR-2 experiments

Understanding and quantifying the release of fission products like silver (Ag) from TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel particles is important to assess the safe operation of advanced high temperature reactors. Although the silicon carbide (SiC) layer of TRISO particles is effective as the main fission product barrier, Ag can be released from intact TRISO particles. A mechanistic model for the effective Ag diffusivity, D eff , was previously developed as a function of temperature and microstructure variables informed by atomistic modeling of Ag diffusivity on the mesoscale. Here in this study, we use this model to explore how experimental temperature uncertainties impact the overall predicted Ag release. This analysis shows that temperature uncertainties have a significant impact on the overall Ag release predictions. Furthermore, we show that the time average volume average temperature (TAVA) temperature is not an appropriate proxy for temperature histories to predict fission product release. We attribute this to the Arrhenius dependence of Ag diffusivity with respect to temperature. The detailed temperature histories, therefore, provide the most accurate results are are of most importance for modeling efforts. Overall, this work shows the importance of considering the experimental uncertainty of the temperature on computational predictions of fission product transport and release and the need for more accurate temperature histories from future experiments.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Post-irradiation 1600°C Heating Test of AGR-1 UCO Fuel Kernels

Five bare kernels were selected from the U.S. Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 1 irradiation experiment Compact 5-3-1 to perform post-irradiation safety tests. The safety test involved heating the kernels in the Fuel Accident Condition Simulator (FACS) furnace in the inert atmosphere to a peak temperature of 1600°C and isothermally holding at this temperature for about 47 hours while collecting fission products released. This test was to assess the retention of fission products in bare kernels without the effects of the other TRISO layers (buffer, IPyC, SiC, and OPyC) or the graphitic matrix material. The bare kernels released nearly 100% of cesium and antimony, while they were able to maintain about 30% of europium, 50% of strontium, and the majority of cerium and ruthenium. In addition, about 48% of the calculated inventory of Kr-85 released during the test, indicating that kernels were capable of retaining a considerable fraction of fission gas K-85 during irradiation.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Buffer-IPyC separation process in TRISO fuel particles simulated with Bison code

During High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) operation, tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated-particle fuel undergoes irradiation-induced changes in morphology and thermomechanical properties. Experimental results from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) Fuel Development and Qualification Program show, among other things, the mechanism of gap formation between the buffer and inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) layers, which could be explored further via computational simulations using the Bison code. Two simulation models were developed, the debonding restricted model, where no gap formation between buffer and IPyC layers is permitted, and the debonding enabled model, where the gap between those layers is created. The inputs of the simulated models are based on the irradiation conditions from the AGR-1 experiment. The research included simulations on spherical and aspherical fuel types. Under the specific temperatures and fluences of the AGR-1 irradiation experiment, and the Bison simulations, it was concluded that the most common scenario is a gap formation along the buffer-IPyC interface, while the least possible scenario is the situation where there is no gap formation at the buffer-IPyC junction. The computational results confirmed that the sphericity of the fuel influences the thickness of the gap that occurs at the buffer-IPyC junction, in a way that with increasing aspect ratio the gap thickness increases. The results obtained for spherical and aspherical fuel are nearly identical. Finally, performed simulations match conclusions observed from the AGR-1 experiment, which as such shows that the Bison code is a good computational method for simulating the TRISO fuel. Future simulations will include the validation of performed research and comparison of the results between Bison and PARFUME codes.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Analysis of TRISO Fuel: Quantifying Model Inadequacy, Incorporating Lower-Length-Scale Effects, and Developing Parallel Active Learning Capabilities

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program aims to develop predictive capabilities by applying computational methods to the analysis and design of advanced reactor and fuel-cycle systems. This program has been providing engineering-scale support for the continued development of BISON, a high-fidelity, high-resolution fuel performance tool. Fuel behavior in nuclear reactors is governed by a complex network of mechanisms that interact with various other physics aspects in the reactor system. Any model developed to represent fuel behavior will likely be idealized, resulting in uncertainties when comparing their predictions against the observed data. In Fiscal Year (FY)-23, we initiated the Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) work by using Bayesian methods to establish a level of model trustworthiness and further improve it, with a particular emphasis on TRI-Structural isOtropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel. This year, we further expanded on that UQ work by investigating an approach to quantifying model inadequacy and accounting for lower-length scale (LLS) effects in TRISO silver (Ag) release modeling. Furthermore, we are implementing parallel active learning capabilities to reduce the computational cost (i.e., required computational resources and elapsed time) of performing UQ. Specifically, we utilized The Kennedy O’Hagan framework for Bayesian uncertainty quantification (KOH) to account for model inadequacy in TRISO Ag release predictions made by BISON. The KOH framework represents an improvement over the standard Bayesian framework used in FY-23. Explicitly accounting for model inadequacy in the Bayesian framework helps establish the level of experimental noise uncertainty in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) data. We compared the inverse UQ results obtained from both the standard Bayesian and KOH frameworks in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data, and also compared the predictive UQ results obtained from these two frameworks in light of the AGR-1 data. Next, we investigated the impact of considering LLS effects in the Ag release simulations. We developed an expanded database of LLS simulated effective diffusivities for Ag, covering a wide range of microstructures and temperatures. Using this database, we developed a framework for incorporating LLS effects into the engineering-scale Ag release UQ. We developed both parametric and non-parametric approaches for bridging the length scales. We then investigated the inverse UQ results in light of the AGR-2/3/4 data and the predictive UQ results in light of the AGR-1 data, and compared the LLS-informed approach and the Arrhenius equation, which does not include microstructure information. Finally, we discussed implementing parallel active learning capabilities in the Multiphysics Object Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE)/BISON to reduce the computational cost (i.e., computational resources and elapsed time) of Bayesian UQ. For verification purposes, we first tested these new capabil ities on a species interaction problem. We then demonstrated them on the TRISO Ag release application, showing that parallel active learning capabilities can enhance the accuracy of UQ while also substantially reducing the computational cost in comparison to the reference methods developed in FY-23.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiscale, mechanistic modeling of irradiation-enhanced silver diffusion in TRISO particles

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particles are under consideration for use in several proposed advanced nuclear reactor concepts. The silicon carbide (SiC) layer in TRISO acts as a barrier to prevent the release of the fission products. However, despite remarkable retention, silver (Ag) release has been observed from intact particles, which requires investigation since the Ag isotope ( 110m Ag) has a long half-life. Previous work focused on developing a multiscale, mechanistic model for Ag diffusion accounting for temperature and microstructure effect and has been successfully validated. In this work, we expand the previous model to account for irradiation-enhanced Ag diffusivity in SiC and improve its accuracy over a wider grain size and temperature ranges relevant for advanced reactor conditions. A temperature, grain size, and flux dependent diffusivity is therefore derived using the mesoscale code MARMOT and implemented in the fuel performance code BISON. The irradiation-enhanced Ag diffusivity in SiC is compared against experimental data and validated using BISON against Ag release measurements from the Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program (AGR-1 and AGR-2). Herein, we quantify the impact of SiC grain size, irradiation, and temperature on Ag release. In agreement with previous studies, we find accounting for SiC grain size improves agreement between BISON predictions and experimental observations for most cases. In conclusion, we also find that accounting for irradiation improves agreement for cases where Ag release was underestimated, but the impact was less significant than accounting for microstructure.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Updating and Refining BISON TRISO Assessment

Several advanced reactor concepts consider tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel in their designs. To support the advanced reactor industry, the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is developing modeling and simulation capabilities within the BISON fuel performance code. Assessment of these capabilities against available experi- mental data, such as the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program, is essential in instilling confidence in the code predictions. Associated uncertainties in model inadequacy, experimental measurements, and manufacturing are also of importance. This report discusses the updating and standardization of the existing assessment suite in BISON for TRISO fuel performance analysis. The cases considered the AGR-1, AGR-2, and AGR-3/4 experimental programs. The report also includes a preliminary investigation into the sources of model inadequacy associated with silver (Ag) release fractions using the AGR-2 Compact 2-1-2 as a case study. The results indicate that uncertainties in the operating temperatures supplied to the model and the form of those temperature conditions (spatially averaged versus spatially resolved) both affect Ag release predictions. This suggests that previously observed model inadequacy can be attributed to both physical models and the operating conditions supplied to them. These findings will be leveraged to guide development of assessment cases for additional experiments and refinement of physical models for behaviors that potentially influence Ag release, such as palladium penetration.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Multiscale, mechanistic modeling of cesium transport in silicon carbide for TRISO fuel performance prediction

Understanding cesium (Cs) transport in TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particle fuel is crucial for predicting fission product release in high-temperature reactors. However, current challenges include significant scatter in diffusivity data and unexplained temperature-dependent diffusion regimes in the silicon carbide layer. This study addresses these challenges by developing a multiscale, mechanistic Cs transport model integrating atomistic simulations and phase field modeling. Our model quantifies temperature and grain size effects on Cs diffusivity, attributing experimentally observed regimes to a transition from bulk-dominated diffusivity at high temperatures to grain boundary-dominated diffusivity at lower temperatures. The model, validated against diffusion measurements and advanced gas reactor (AGR)-1 and AGR-2 post-irradiation fission product release data, enhances the predictive capability of the BISON fuel performance code. This study advances our understanding of Cs release from TRISO particles and its dependence on temperature and silicon carbide grain size, with implications for the safety and efficiency of high-temperature nuclear reactors.

BISON↗
DOE OSTI2025

Micromechanical Properties of the SiC and Pyrolytic Carbon Layers in Tristructural-Isotropic Coated Particles

Tristructural isotropic (TRISO) coated particle fuel was initially developed for high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGR) and has been proposed for several other advanced reactor concepts. The design of TRISO particles focuses on preventing the release of fission products in normal and off-normal reactor conditions. The particle design features an actinide bearing fuel kernel that is surrounded by three pyrolytic carbon (PyC) layers and a silicon carbide layer (SiC). The mechanical stability of the particle and fission product retention for both metallic and gaseous fission products depend on the SiC layer. Post irradiation examination (PIE) of TRISO fuel from the first two US DOE Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program irradiation campaigns, AGR-1 and AGR-2, had identified a low rate of particles exhibiting cracking in the SiC layer that did not propagate across the SiC layer. While cracking in the SiC is rare for test conditions and particles associated with the AGR program, understanding the stress state and mechanical properties of the SiC and PyC layers related to particle architecture can aid predicting thermomechanical response of TRISO fuel under the prescribed operation envelope and beyond as well as aiding in the development of similar fuel concepts for other advanced reactors. The presented investigation shows the relationship of the mechanical properties and mechanical response (e.g., understanding crack propagation) of the SiC and PyC layers relative to position within the particle. Testing was conducted on the inner and outer PyC layers of TRISO particles to quantify differences in mechanical behavior.

Montoya, Katherine [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000326955086)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive PIE and Safety Testing of Six AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 Compacts

This study evaluates fission product retention and particle failure mechanisms in AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 uranium carbide and uranium oxide (UCO) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel under high-temperature gas reactor accident-relevant conditions using high-temperature safety tests and destructive postirradiation examination. Three Capsule 2 compacts were held isothermally at 1600°C for approximately 300 hours and one compact at 1800°C for approximately 300 hours; two additional compacts were examined in the as-irradiated state. Post-test deconsolidation–leach–burn–leach (DLBL) quantified nuclide inventories in matrix and particles. Individual particles were surveyed for radioisotope inventories, and microanalytical approaches resolved microstructural evolution and fission product distributions within the coating layers. At 1600°C, no krypton was detected above the minimum detectable limit, and cesium releases were far below a single particle equivalent, indicating the absence of full TRISO failure or SiC failures. Silver releases were limited and primarily reflected depleted postirradiation inventories, consistent with prior compact-level exams indicating substantial in-pile 110mAg loss. At 1800°C, cumulative 134Cs release of approximately 2.5 particle equivalents and delayed 85Kr totaling approximately 0.53 particle equivalents were consistent with one full TRISO failure and two SiC failures. Europium and strontium releases were roughly one order of magnitude higher than at 1600°C and comparable to AGR-1/AGR-2 high-temperature tests, with sustained late-hold rates indicating diffusion through intact coatings coupled with matrix depletion. Overall, AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 UCO fuel demonstrated fission product retention during safety testing consistent with prior AGR campaigns, while distinctive in-pile 110mAg depletion and measurable 1600°C europium loss motivate targeted follow-on studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Destructive PIE and Safety Testing of Six AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 Compacts

This study evaluates fission product retention and particle failure mechanisms in AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 uranium carbide and uranium oxide (UCO) tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel under high-temperature gas reactor accident-relevant conditions using high-temperature safety tests and destructive post-irradiation examination. Three Capsule 2 compacts were held isothermally at 1600°C for approximately 300 hours and one compact at 1800°C for approximately 300 hours; two additional compacts were examined in the as-irradiated state. Post-test deconsolidation–leach–burn–leach (DLBL) quantified nuclide inventories in matrix and particles. Individual particles were surveyed for radioisotope inventories, and microanalytical approaches resolved microstructural evolution and fission product distributions within the coating layers. At 1600°C, no krypton was detected above the minimum detectable limit, and cesium releases were far below a single particle equivalent, indicating the absence of full TRISO failure or SiC failures. Silver releases were limited and primarily reflected depleted post-irradiation inventories, consistent with prior compact-level exams indicating substantial in-pile 110m Ag loss. At 1800°C, cumulative 134 Cs release of approximately 2.5 particle equivalents and delayed 85 Kr totaling approximately 0.53 particle equivalents were consistent with one full TRISO failure and two SiC failures. Europium and strontium releases were roughly one order of magnitude higher than at 1600°C and comparable to AGR-1/AGR-2 high-temperature tests, with sustained late-hold rates indicating diffusion through intact coatings coupled with matrix depletion. Overall, AGR-5/6/7 Capsule 2 UCO fuel demonstrated fission product retention during safety testing consistent with prior AGR campaigns, while distinctive in-pile 110m Ag depletion and measurable 1600°C europium loss motivate targeted follow-on studies.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Post-irradiation Heating Tests of As-Irradiated AGR-3/4 TRISO Fuel Compacts

Four post-irradiation heating tests of fuel compacts from the U.S. Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-3/4 irradiation experiment were completed. In addition to tristructural isotropic (TRISO)-coated driver fuel, each compact contained designed-to-fail (DTF) particles with fuel kernels coated only in pyrocarbon so as to simulate exposed kernels. Tests at 1600/1700°C, 1400°C, and 1200°C were performed to measure fission product release as a function of time and temperature. Silver release was highest in the 1200°C test, supporting the observation that silver release rates are highest in the 1100–1300°C range. Compared to tests of AGR-1 compacts with no exposed kernels, the Cs-134 and Kr-85 releases were noticeably higher in AGR-3/4. The exposed kernels’ contributions to Eu and Sr release are inconclusive, due to the difficulty in distinguishing among the combined effects of higher irradiation temperatures in these particular AGR-3/4 compacts, the presence of the DTF particles, and the Fuel Accident Condition Simulator (FACS) test temperatures. These data can be used to make inferences about fission product retention in exposed kernels as a function of time and temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

AGR-5/6/7 Irradiation Test Final As-run Report

This document presents the as-run analysis of the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-5/6/7 irradiation experiment. AGR-5/6/7 is the last of a series of experiments conducted in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) at Idaho National Laboratory in support of the development and qualification of tri-structural isotropic low-enriched fuel for use in high-temperature gas-cooled reactors. The test train contained five separate capsules that were independently controlled and monitored. Each capsule contained multiple 24.91-mm-long and 12.25-mm-dimeter compacts filled with low-enriched uranium carbide/oxide tri-structural isotropic fuel particles. The objectives of the AGR-5/6/7 experiment were to: • Irradiate reference-design fuel particles to support fuel qualification. • Establish operating margins for the fuel, beyond normal operating conditions. • Provide irradiated-fuel performance data and irradiated-fuel samples for post-irradiation examination and safety testing. The primary objective of the AGR-5/6 test (Capsules 1, 2, 4, and 5) was to verify the successful performance of the reference-design fuel under normal operating conditions. The AGR-7 test (Capsule 3) was designed to explore fuel performance at higher temperatures. Its primary objective was to demonstrate the capability of the fuel to withstand conditions beyond normal operating conditions, in support of plant design and licensing. AGR-5/6/7 will also provide irradiated-fuel performance data based on the fission gas release from particles during irradiation. To achieve the test objectives, the AGR-5/6/7 experiment was irradiated in the northeast flux trap of the ATR with a planned duration of 500 effective full-power days. The northeast flux trap was selected because its larger diameter provided greater flexibility for test-train design compared to the Large B positions used for the AGR-1 and AGR-2 irradiations, significantly enhancing test capabilities for the combined irradiation campaigns. Due to delays in the ATR schedule, the AGR-5/6/7 irradiation was significantly shorter than the originally planned 13-cycle schedule. Irradiation began on February 16, 2018 and ended on July 22, 2020, spanning nine ATR cycles (162B–168A) over two and a half years. Thus, the AGR-5/6/7 fuel compacts were irradiated for a total of approximately 360.9 effective full-power days. Final burnup values, on a per-compact basis, ranged from 5.66 to 15.26% fissions per initial heavy metal atom, while fast fluence values ranged from 1.62 to 5.55 × 1025 n/m2 (E >0.18 MeV). Time-averaged volume-averaged fuel temperatures on a capsule basis at the end of irradiation ranged from 756°C in Capsule 5 to 1313°C in Capsule 3 excluding days with significantly lower temperature during the two short powered axial locator mechanism cycles, 163A and 167A. By the end of irradiation, 48 out of 54 installed thermocouples had failed (the bottom three capsules lost all thermocouples). During the first five cycles (162B – 165A), the fission-gas isotope release-rate-to-birthrate (R/B) ratios were stable in the 10-8–10-6 range, and no in-pile particle failures were observed based on the gross gamma counts. During this time, the high exposed kernel fraction and high fuel particle temperatures in Capsule 1 led to a maximum R/B value of around 2 ? 10-6 for Kr-85m. The fission gas release in all capsules started to increase from the second half of Cycle 166A, when a large number of in-pile particle failures occurred in Capsule 1 and a gas line problem in this capsule caused fission gas leakage at various degrees into the other four capsules. This gas line problem also prevented a fission gas release measurement for Capsule 1 during the last three cycles due to gas flow isolation. By the end of irradiation, it is estimated that approximately 15 particles failed in Capsule 3, which was considered possible because the experiment was designed to operate beyond the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor normal operating temperature range. A few hundred in-pile particle failures were estimated for Capsule 1 by the end of Cycle 166A, but the total number of failures is unknown due to the lack of fission gas release data in the later cycles. Additionally, four potential in-pile failures were identified for Capsule 2 during the last cycle, Cycle 168A. In contrast, no in-pile failures were identified in the top two capsules (4 and 5) based on the absence of the typical spikes in gross gamma counts and low failure estimates using the AGR-3/4 R/B per exposed kernel model.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Deconsolidation and Leach Burn Leach of Seven As Irradiated AGR 5/6/7 TRISO Fuel Compacts from Capsules 2, 3, 4, and 5

Seven as-irradiated Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) 5/6/7 compacts underwent destructive post-irradiation examination via deconsolidation-leach-burn leach at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). The selection of the compacts extended the upper and lower limits of time-average volume-average (TAVA) temperature for compacts that had gone through deconsolidation-leach-burn leach so far. The measured inventories of fission products and actinides in the compact matrix and outer pyrolytic carbon were reported. Results indicated unexpectedly higher rates of fuel kernel leaching compared to compacts from AGR-1 and AGR-2. These failure rates were attributed to damage during post-irradiation sample handling, rather than irradiation itself. AGR-5/6/7 compacts have little or no matrix coverage for some particles at the top and bottom ends of cylindrical fuel compacts, making them more fragile. Sixty particles were randomly sampled from each compact, and the gamma results were reported. Three SiC shells from were identified, one of which showed signs of chemical attack in the high-irradiation temperature compact.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Model Inadequacy in TRISO Nuclear Fuel Fission Products Release Models: Empirical and Mechanistic Approaches

The increasing use of tristructural isotropic (TRISO) particle fuel in both advanced and existing reactors necessitates a thorough evaluation of uncertainties and shortcomings in TRISO fission product release models. These inadequacies arise from the simplifications made in computational models compared to experimental data. Utilizing the BISON fuel performance code and experimental data from the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) program provides a unique chance to rigorously assess these inadequacies within a Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ) framework. This study contrasts the standard Bayesian framework with the Kennedy-O'Hagan (KOH) framework, which explicitly accounts for modeling inadequacies, in the context of UQ for TRISO silver release models. It examines both the traditional Arrhenius equation and a more advanced lower-length-scale (LLS)-informed model that incorporates microstructure information. The inverse UQ process applied to AGR-2 and AGR-3/4 datasets identified modeling inadequacy as the primary source of uncertainty, with experimental noise also being significant, while model parameter uncertainty was minimal. Both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models showed similar levels of modeling inadequacy. For forward predictive UQ using the AGR-1 dataset, the KOH framework enhanced the accuracy and quality of quantified uncertainties by approximately 30% and 40%, respectively, compared to the standard Bayesian framework. This improvement was observed for both the Arrhenius and LLS-informed models. At the engineering scale, both models performed similarly, but the LLS-informed model outperformed the Arrhenius equation at the mesoscale. These findings underscore the importance of explicitly considering modeling inadequacy in the UQ process and highlight the need for ongoing refinement of physics-based models to address these shortcomings.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗