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NASA NTRS2017

Covariability of Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande from Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales

Study region: The Upper Rio Grande (URG) flows from its headwaters in Colorado, U.S., and provides an important source of water to millions of people in the U.S. states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and also Mexico. Study focus: We reassess the explanatory power of the relationship of sea surface temperatures (SST) on URG streamflow variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales. We find a significant amount of the variance of spring-summer URG streamflow cannot be fully explained by SST. New hydrological insights: We find that the interdecadal teleconnection between SST and streamflow is more clear than on interannual timescales. The highest ranked years tend to be clustered during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the periods of decadal high flow (1900-1920, and 1979-1995), Pacific SST resembles a positive PDO pattern and the Atlantic a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern; an interbasin pattern shown in prior studies to be conducive to high precipitation and streamflow. To account for the part of streamflow variance not explained by SST, we analyze atmospheric Reanalysis data for the months preceding the highest spring-summer streamflow events. A variety of atmospheric configurations are found to precede the highest flow years through anomalous moisture convergence. This lack of consistency suggests that, on interannual timescales, weather and not climate can dominate the generation of high streamflow events.

AMO↗

DOE OSTI2022

Uncertainty in Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation derived from different observed datasets and their possible causes

As a leading mode of sea surface temperature (SST) variability over the North Atlantic in both observations and model simulations, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) can have a substantial influence on regional and global climate. By using Low-Frequency Component Analysis, we explore the uncertainties of the resulting AMO indices and the corresponding spatial patterns derived from three observational SST datasets. We found that the known coherent spatial pattern of the AMO at the basin scale over the North Atlantic appears in two out of the three datasets. Further analysis indicates that both the warming trend and the different techniques used to construct these observed gridded SSTs contribute to the AMO’s spatial coherence over the North Atlantic, especially during periods of sparse data sampling. The SST in the Extended Reconstructed SST dataset version 5 (ERSSTv5), changes from being systematically below the other datasets during the dense sampling periods on either side of the Second World War (WWII), to systematically above the other datasets during WWII, thereby introducing an artificial 10–20-year variability that affects the AMO’s spatial coherence. This coherence in the AMO’s spatial pattern is also affected by bias adjustment in ERSSTv5 at relative cool (i.e., non-summer) seasons, and by the heterogeneous North Atlantic warming pattern. The different AMO patterns can induce the different effects of wind, surface heat fluxes, and then drive ocean circulation and its heat transport convergence, especially for some seasons. For AMO indices, both the different detrending methods and different observational data result in uncertainty for the period 1935–1950. Such SST uncertainty is important to detect the relative role of the atmosphere and ocean in shaping the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1990

Multiple strike slip faults sets: A case study from the Dead Sea transform

In many strike slip tectonic settings, large rotations of crust blocks about vertical axes have been inferred from paleomagnetic data. These blocks are bounded by sets of parallel faults which presumably accommodate the relative motion between the blocks as regional deformation progress. A mechanical model by Nur et al., (1986) suggests that rotations greater than phi sub c equals 25 to 45 degrees must be accommodated by more than one set of faults, with angle phi sub c between their direction; consequently the sum of the angles between sets must be roughly equal to the total tectonic material rotation. To test this model, the authors investigated the fault geometry and field relation of fault sets in the Mt. Hermon area in northern Israel, where paleomagnetic declination implies data 69 degrees plus or minus 13 degrees counter-clockwise block rotation. The statistical and field relation analysis of over 315 faults shows that the faulting is predominantly right lateral strike slip consisting of three distinct sets. The oldest set strikes 253 degrees, the second oldest set strikes 293 degrees and the youngest strikes 339 degrees. This last direction is consistent also with the current north-south direction of the maximum principle stress axis. The angle phi sub c between the first and second sets is 39 degrees and between the second and third sets 46 degrees, in good agreement with the phi sub c angle predicted from mechanical considerations. The sum of the two angles is 85 degrees, in good agreement with the 69 degrees plus or minus 13 degrees CCW paleomagnetically derived rotation. The results suggest specifically that the sequential development of multiple intersecting fault sets is responsible for the faulting in the Mt. Hermon area; and generally that the model of block rotation with multiple faults provides very good simple rules for analyzing very complex fault patterns.

Ron, Hagai↗

DOE OSTI2020

Variations in northeast Asian summer precipitation driven by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation

By analysing a 113–year (1900–2012) observational dataset, it is shown in this work that the interdecadal fluctuation of the summer precipitation over Northeast Asia differs from that in central East Asia during the 20th century, and has experienced three interdecadal shifts in the 1920s, mid-1960s and late 1990s. That fluctuation coincides well with the multidecadal fluctuation of the sea surface temperature in the North Atlantic, known as the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). The AMO affects Northeast Asia via a circumglobal teleconnection pattern extending from the North Atlantic to North America. Corresponding with the positive phase of this teleconnection pattern, a tripolar pattern emerges in the Asian–North Pacific sector, with anomalous low pressure over Northeast Asia and high pressure over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific. These results suggest that the positive phase of the AMO favours the occurrence of cold vortex over Northeast Asia and anomalous highs over Lake Baikal and the mid-latitude western North Pacific in summer, which enhances the East Asian summer monsoon and southward intrusion of high-latitude cold air, and eventually increases the summer precipitation in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, initialized decadal prediction simulations using the CCSM4 model reproduce well the observed variations of the AMO and its associated atmospheric teleconnection but with slightly shifted geographic locations. The simulated anomalous Northeast Asia cold vortex and strong East Asian summer monsoon, lead to above-normal summer precipitation over Northeast Asia. The modelling results confirm that the multidecadal variability in the North Atlantic can cause the observed interdecadal variations of Northeast Asia summer precipitation. Our results suggest that to understand and predict interdecadal climate change over Northeast Asia, it is important to consider the key role of the AMO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Low flow characteristics for regulated and unregulated streams in North Carolina and prediction using climate signals

In this work, low flow statistics of regulated and unregulated streams in the state of North Carolina were updated with streamflow data through 2019. About 22% of the streams considered show a significant downward trend, but considerable low-frequency variability confounding trends. The relationship between regional index time series of groundwater-depth low flow and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) was examined to determine whether low-frequency climate modes can account for the long-term pattern in low flows. Consequently, a significant correlation was found between AMO and groundwater-depth low flow, such that positive AMO is associated with lower groundwater-depth low flow and vice versa, particularly for the Piedmont region. Predictive equations for annual low flows at the ecoregion level shows that springtime average streamflow and AMO were selected as the primary predictors of low flow for coastal and Piedmont regions, whereas springtime average streamflow and the November–December–January average Oceanic Niño Index were used as the primary predictors for the mountain region. The relative root mean square error (RMSE) of the disaggregated predictions to US Geologic Survey gauge locations was <23% at 79% of the stations, between 24% and 43% at 10% of the stations, and greater than 44% at 1% of the stations. The remaining 10% of stations showed large RMSEs. This latter percentage is characterized by smaller drainage basins and intermittent flows, suggesting the prediction models are not applicable to drainage basins smaller than roughly 20 square km and intermittent streams.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1990

Block rotations, fault domains and crustal deformation in the western US

The aim of the project was to develop a 3D model of crustal deformation by distributed fault sets and to test the model results in the field. In the first part of the project, Nur's 2D model (1986) was generalized to 3D. In Nur's model the frictional strength of rocks and faults of a domain provides a tight constraint on the amount of rotation that a fault set can undergo during block rotation. Domains of fault sets are commonly found in regions where the deformation is distributed across a region. The interaction of each fault set causes the fault bounded blocks to rotate. The work that has been done towards quantifying the rotation of fault sets in a 3D stress field is briefly summarized. In the second part of the project, field studies were carried out in Israel, Nevada and China. These studies combined both paleomagnetic and structural information necessary to test the block rotation model results. In accordance with the model, field studies demonstrate that faults and attending fault bounded blocks slip and rotate away from the direction of maximum compression when deformation is distributed across fault sets. Slip and rotation of fault sets may continue as long as the earth's crustal strength is not exceeded. More optimally oriented faults must form, for subsequent deformation to occur. Eventually the block rotation mechanism may create a complex pattern of intersecting generations of faults.

Nur, Amos↗

DOE OSTI2021

Differential Credibility of Climate Modes in CMIP6

This work quantitatively evaluates the fidelity with which the northern annular mode (NAM), southern annular mode (SAM), Pacific–North American pattern (PNA), El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), Atlantic multidecadal oscillation (AMO), and the first-order mode interactions are represented in Earth system model (ESM) output from the CMIP6 archive. Several skill metrics are used as part of a differential credibility assessment (DCA) of both spatial and temporal characteristics of the modes across ESMs, ESM families, and specific ESM realizations relative to ERA5. The spatial patterns and probability distributions are generally well represented but skill scores that measure the degree to which the frequencies of maximum variance are captured are consistently lower for most ESMs and climate modes. Substantial variability in skill scores manifests across realizations from individual ESMs for the PNA and oceanic modes. Further, the ESMs consistently overestimate the strength of the NAM–PNA first-order interaction and underestimate the NAM–AMO connection. Furthermore, these results suggest that the choice of ESM and ESM realizations will continue to play a critical role in determining climate projections at the global and regional scale at least in the near term.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Global Climate on Freshwater Changes in Africa’s Largest Endorheic Basin Using Multi-Scaled Indicators

The poor investments in gauge measurements for hydro-climatic research in Africa has necessitated the need to investigate how decision makers can leverage on sophisticated spaceborne measurements to improve knowledge on surface water hydrology that can feed directly into water accounting processes and risk assessment from extreme droughts and its impacts. To demonstrate such potential, a suite of satellite earth observations (Sentinel-2, altimetry, Landsat, GRACE, and TRMM) and model data are combined with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index to assess the impacts of global climate on freshwater dynamics over the LCB (Lake Chad basin), Africa’s largest endorheic basin. As shown in the results of this study, the significant relationship of climate modes (AMO; r = 0.68 and 0.59; and AMM; r = 0.2 and 0.47) with drought patterns in the LCB highlights the evidence of global climate influence in the region. The significant declines in drought extents and their intensities (2004 - 2015) over LCB coincide with the rise in surface water extent of the Lake Chad during the same period. Change detection analysis of open water features in the southern pool of Lake Chad during the 2015 - 2019 period shows that on the average, only 28.4% of inundated areas within the vicinity of the Lake persisted during the period. While the association of terrestrial water storage (TWS) with model-derived surface water storage (SWS) is strongest (r = 0.89) in the catchments that provide the most nourishment to the Lake Chad, the relationship of rainfall (2002 - 2017) with TWS (r = 0.85), model TWS (r = 0.87) and SWS (r = 0.88) confirm that the LCB’s hydrology is predominantly climate-driven. This notion is further reinforced as the predicted SWS over the LCB using a support vector machine regression scheme was found to be strongly correlated (r = 0.95 at = 0.05) with observed SWS.

Sentinel-2↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding the Recent Increase in Landfalling Tropical Cyclones Over Florida's Gulf Coast

Unlike Florida's Atlantic Coast, the Gulf Coast of Florida has seen heightened tropical cyclone (TC) activity in recent decades with several destructive landfalls. Here, we attempt to understand this regional contrast using a suite of observations for the period 1979–2024. First, we demonstrate that while the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can explain ~23% of the interannual variability in landfalls over the Gulf Coast, the variance explained by them for the Atlantic Coast is statistically insignificant. Next, we show that this striking difference may be attributed to the regional patterns of wind shear, steering flow and air-sea thermodynamic state excited by those modes of variability. The differential control exerted by ENSO, AMO, and NAO on landfalling Florida TCs, in combination with decadal trends in those modes, is likely responsible for the observed increases in landfalls over Florida's Gulf Coast.

Florida↗

NASA NTRS1994

Calculation of near optimum design of InP/In(0.53)Ga(0.47)As monolithic tandem solar cells

An analysis of InP/GaAs tandem solar cell structure has been undertaken to allow for maximum AMO conversion efficiencies (space applications) while still taking into account both the theoretical and technological limitations. The dependence of intrinsic and extrinsic parameters such as diffusion lengths and generation-recombination (GR) lifetimes on N/P and P/N devices performances are clearly demonstrated. We also report for the first time the improvement attainable through the use of a new patterned tunnel junction as the inter cell ohmic interconnect. Such a design minimizes the light absorption in the interconnect region and leads to a noticeable increase in the cell efficiency. Our computations predict 27 percent AMO efficiency for N/P tandems with ideality factor gamma = 2 (GR lifetimes approximately equal 1 micron), and 36 percent for gamma = 1 (GR lifetimes approximately equals 100 microns). The method of optimization and the values of the physical and optical parameters are discussed.

Renaud, P.↗

DOE OSTI2020

Diffraction data from aerosolized Coliphage PR772 virus particles imaged with the Linac Coherent Light Source

This data-set contains diffraction data of the PR772 virus from four experiments (amo87215, amo06516, amo11416, amox3411) conducted at the LCLS. We provide one CXIDB file per experiment, with a total of 285,944 diffraction patterns, as well as the corresponding xtc files (the native format at the LCLS).

AMO↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evolution of the Internal Climate Modes under Future Warming

Abstract Climate modes play an important role in weather and climate variability over multiple spatial and temporal scales. This research assesses Earth system model (ESM) projections of the spatiotemporal characteristics of key internal climate modes (NAM, SAM, PNA, ENSO, PDO, and AMO) under high (SSP585) and low (SSP126) radiative forcing scenarios and contextualizes those projections using historical fidelity. Time series analyses are used to assess trends and mode phase characteristics are summarized for the historical period and for the end of the twenty-first century. Spatial patterns are compared to infer morphological changes. Shifts in the power spectra are used to examine changes in variability at subannual, interannual, and interdecadal scales. Changes in time-lagged correlations are used to capture the evolution of first-order interactions. While differences in historical skill are predominantly ESM dependent, changing mode characteristics in a warmer climate also exhibit variability between individual ensemble realizations. NAM, SAM, and ENSO tend to evolve toward increased prevalence of the positive phase up to 2100 across the multimodel ensemble while the PNA and PDO exhibit little trend but increasing phase intensity. AMO characteristics are shown to depend on the method used to remove the external signal. ESMs that show higher historical fidelity tend to show more modest changes in those modes under global nonstationarity. Changes in mode interactions are found to be highly ESM dependent but exhibit broadly similar behavior to historical relationships. These findings have implications for our understanding of internal variability and make clear that the choice of ESM, and even the ESM realization, matters for applications of climate projections. Significance Statement Internal modes of variability are important to understand due to their impact on local, regional, and global weather and climate patterns. Future climate changes will not only be affected by the variability arising from these modes, but the modes will themselves change in response to the changing climate. Spatial and temporal aspects of the modes are assessed from projections of future climate and related to how well they are captured in the historical climate. This yields some measure of confidence in the changes exhibited by the models. In most cases, when historically skillful models exhibit changes that are different from those produced by less skillful models, they tend to produce more modest changes. These results, as well as the variability between model outcomes, mean decisions on which ESM to use for projections of the future climate matter significantly.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

NASA NTRS2008

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

Schubert, Siegfried↗

DOE OSTI2020

Diffraction data from aerosolized Coliphage PR772 virus particles imaged with the Linac Coherent Light Source

Single Particle Imaging (SPI) with intense coherent X-ray pulses from X-ray free-electron lasers (XFELs) has the potential to produce molecular structures without the need for crystallization or freezing. Here we present a dataset of 285,944 diffraction patterns from aerosolized Coliphage PR772 virus particles injected into the femtosecond X-ray pulses of the Linac Coherent Light Source (LCLS). Additional exposures with background information are also deposited. The diffraction data were collected at the Atomic, Molecular and Optical Science Instrument (AMO) of the LCLS in 4 experimental beam times during a period of four years. The photon energy was either 1.2 or 1.7 keV and the pulse energy was between 2 and 4 mJ in a focal spot of about 1.3 μm x 1.7 μm full width at half maximum (FWHM). The X-ray laser pulses captured the particles in random orientations. The data offer insight into aerosolised virus particles in the gas phase, contain information relevant to improving experimental parameters, and provide a basis for developing algorithms for image analysis and reconstruction.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2015

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

GPCP↗

DOE OSTI2020

A mechanistic model and therapeutic interventions for COVID-19 involving a RAS-mediated bradykinin storm

Neither the disease mechanism nor treatments for COVID-19 are currently known. Here, we present a novel molecular mechanism for COVID-19 that provides therapeutic intervention points that can be addressed with existing FDA-approved pharmaceuticals. The entry point for the virus is ACE2, which is a component of the counteracting hypotensive axis of RAS. Bradykinin is a potent part of the vasopressor system that induces hypotension and vasodilation and is degraded by ACE and enhanced by the angiotensin 1-9 produced by ACE2. Here, we perform a new analysis on gene expression data from cells in bronchoalveolar lavage fluid (BALF) from COVID-19 patients that were used to sequence the virus. Comparison with BALF from controls identifies a critical imbalance in RAS represented by decreased expression of ACE in combination with increases in ACE2, renin, angiotensin, key RAS receptors, kinogen and many kallikrein enzymes that activate it, and both bradykinin receptors. This very atypical pattern of the RAS is predicted to elevate bradykinin levels in multiple tissues and systems that will likely cause increases in vascular dilation, vascular permeability and hypotension. These bradykinin-driven outcomes explain many of the symptoms being observed in COVID-19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1993

The nature of the Landers-Mojave earthquake line

The Landers, California, earthquake of 28 June 1992 (magnitude = 7.3) is the latest of six significant earthquakes in the past 60 years whose epicenters and slip directions define a 100-kilometer alignment running approximately N 15 deg W across the central Mojave region. This pattern may indicate a geologically young throughgoing fault that replaces numerous older strike-slip faults by obliquely cutting across them. These older faults, and perhaps also the bend in the San Andreas fault, may be losing their ability to accommodate upper crustal deformation because they have become unfavorably oriented with respect to the regional stress field.

Nur, Amos↗