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NASA NTRS2017

Covariability of Climate and Streamflow in the Upper Rio Grande from Interannual to Interdecadal Timescales

Study region: The Upper Rio Grande (URG) flows from its headwaters in Colorado, U.S., and provides an important source of water to millions of people in the U.S. states of Colorado, New Mexico, Texas, and also Mexico. Study focus: We reassess the explanatory power of the relationship of sea surface temperatures (SST) on URG streamflow variability on interannual to interdecadal timescales. We find a significant amount of the variance of spring-summer URG streamflow cannot be fully explained by SST. New hydrological insights: We find that the interdecadal teleconnection between SST and streamflow is more clear than on interannual timescales. The highest ranked years tend to be clustered during positive phases of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). During the periods of decadal high flow (1900-1920, and 1979-1995), Pacific SST resembles a positive PDO pattern and the Atlantic a negative Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) pattern; an interbasin pattern shown in prior studies to be conducive to high precipitation and streamflow. To account for the part of streamflow variance not explained by SST, we analyze atmospheric Reanalysis data for the months preceding the highest spring-summer streamflow events. A variety of atmospheric configurations are found to precede the highest flow years through anomalous moisture convergence. This lack of consistency suggests that, on interannual timescales, weather and not climate can dominate the generation of high streamflow events.

AMO↗

NASA NTRS2009

A USCLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results

The USCLI VAR working group on drought recently initiated a series of global climate model simulations forced with idealized SST anomaly patterns, designed to address a number of uncertainties regarding the impact of SST forcing and the role of land-atmosphere feedbacks on regional drought. Specific questions that the runs are designed to address include: What are the mechanisms that maintain drought across the seasonal cycle and from one year to the next? What is the role of the leading patterns of SST variability, and what are the physical mechanisms linking the remote SST forcing to regional drought, including the role of land-atmosphere coupling? The runs were carried out with five different atmospheric general circulation models (AGCM5), and one coupled atmosphere-ocean model in which the model was continuously nudged to the imposed SST forcing. This paper provides an overview of the experiments and some initial results focusing on the responses to the leading patterns of annual mean SST variability consisting of a Pacific El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-like pattern, a pattern that resembles the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), and a global trend pattern. One of the key findings is that all the AGCMs produce broadly similar (though different in detail) precipitation responses to the Pacific forcing pattern, with a cold Pacific leading to reduced precipitation and a warm Pacific leading to enhanced precipitation over most of the United States. While the response to the Atlantic pattern is less robust, there is general agreement among the models that the largest precipitation response over the U.S. tends to occur when the two oceans have anomalies of opposite sign. That is, a cold Pacific and warm Atlantic tend to produce the largest precipitation reductions, whereas a warm Pacific and cold Atlantic tend to produce the greatest precipitation enhancements. Further analysis of the response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing highlights a number of noteworthy and to some extent unexpected results. These include a seasonal dependence of the precipitation response that is characterized by signal-to-noise ratios that peak in spring, and surface temperature signal-to-noise ratios that are both lower and show less agreement among the models than those found for the precipitation response. Another interesting result concerns what appears to be a substantially different character in the surface temperature response over the U.S. to the Pacific forcing by the only model examined here that was developed for use in numerical weather prediction. The response to the positive SST trend forcing pattern is an overall surface warming over the world's land areas with substantial regional variations that are in part reproduced in runs forced with a globally uniform SST trend forcing. The precipitation response to the trend forcing is weak in all the models.

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS1990

Multiple strike slip faults sets: A case study from the Dead Sea transform

In many strike slip tectonic settings, large rotations of crust blocks about vertical axes have been inferred from paleomagnetic data. These blocks are bounded by sets of parallel faults which presumably accommodate the relative motion between the blocks as regional deformation progress. A mechanical model by Nur et al., (1986) suggests that rotations greater than phi sub c equals 25 to 45 degrees must be accommodated by more than one set of faults, with angle phi sub c between their direction; consequently the sum of the angles between sets must be roughly equal to the total tectonic material rotation. To test this model, the authors investigated the fault geometry and field relation of fault sets in the Mt. Hermon area in northern Israel, where paleomagnetic declination implies data 69 degrees plus or minus 13 degrees counter-clockwise block rotation. The statistical and field relation analysis of over 315 faults shows that the faulting is predominantly right lateral strike slip consisting of three distinct sets. The oldest set strikes 253 degrees, the second oldest set strikes 293 degrees and the youngest strikes 339 degrees. This last direction is consistent also with the current north-south direction of the maximum principle stress axis. The angle phi sub c between the first and second sets is 39 degrees and between the second and third sets 46 degrees, in good agreement with the phi sub c angle predicted from mechanical considerations. The sum of the two angles is 85 degrees, in good agreement with the 69 degrees plus or minus 13 degrees CCW paleomagnetically derived rotation. The results suggest specifically that the sequential development of multiple intersecting fault sets is responsible for the faulting in the Mt. Hermon area; and generally that the model of block rotation with multiple faults provides very good simple rules for analyzing very complex fault patterns.

Ron, Hagai↗

NASA NTRS1990

Block rotations, fault domains and crustal deformation in the western US

The aim of the project was to develop a 3D model of crustal deformation by distributed fault sets and to test the model results in the field. In the first part of the project, Nur's 2D model (1986) was generalized to 3D. In Nur's model the frictional strength of rocks and faults of a domain provides a tight constraint on the amount of rotation that a fault set can undergo during block rotation. Domains of fault sets are commonly found in regions where the deformation is distributed across a region. The interaction of each fault set causes the fault bounded blocks to rotate. The work that has been done towards quantifying the rotation of fault sets in a 3D stress field is briefly summarized. In the second part of the project, field studies were carried out in Israel, Nevada and China. These studies combined both paleomagnetic and structural information necessary to test the block rotation model results. In accordance with the model, field studies demonstrate that faults and attending fault bounded blocks slip and rotate away from the direction of maximum compression when deformation is distributed across fault sets. Slip and rotation of fault sets may continue as long as the earth's crustal strength is not exceeded. More optimally oriented faults must form, for subsequent deformation to occur. Eventually the block rotation mechanism may create a complex pattern of intersecting generations of faults.

Nur, Amos↗

NASA NTRS2020

Influence of Global Climate on Freshwater Changes in Africa’s Largest Endorheic Basin Using Multi-Scaled Indicators

The poor investments in gauge measurements for hydro-climatic research in Africa has necessitated the need to investigate how decision makers can leverage on sophisticated spaceborne measurements to improve knowledge on surface water hydrology that can feed directly into water accounting processes and risk assessment from extreme droughts and its impacts. To demonstrate such potential, a suite of satellite earth observations (Sentinel-2, altimetry, Landsat, GRACE, and TRMM) and model data are combined with the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index to assess the impacts of global climate on freshwater dynamics over the LCB (Lake Chad basin), Africa’s largest endorheic basin. As shown in the results of this study, the significant relationship of climate modes (AMO; r = 0.68 and 0.59; and AMM; r = 0.2 and 0.47) with drought patterns in the LCB highlights the evidence of global climate influence in the region. The significant declines in drought extents and their intensities (2004 - 2015) over LCB coincide with the rise in surface water extent of the Lake Chad during the same period. Change detection analysis of open water features in the southern pool of Lake Chad during the 2015 - 2019 period shows that on the average, only 28.4% of inundated areas within the vicinity of the Lake persisted during the period. While the association of terrestrial water storage (TWS) with model-derived surface water storage (SWS) is strongest (r = 0.89) in the catchments that provide the most nourishment to the Lake Chad, the relationship of rainfall (2002 - 2017) with TWS (r = 0.85), model TWS (r = 0.87) and SWS (r = 0.88) confirm that the LCB’s hydrology is predominantly climate-driven. This notion is further reinforced as the predicted SWS over the LCB using a support vector machine regression scheme was found to be strongly correlated (r = 0.95 at = 0.05) with observed SWS.

Sentinel-2↗

NASA NTRS1994

Calculation of near optimum design of InP/In(0.53)Ga(0.47)As monolithic tandem solar cells

An analysis of InP/GaAs tandem solar cell structure has been undertaken to allow for maximum AMO conversion efficiencies (space applications) while still taking into account both the theoretical and technological limitations. The dependence of intrinsic and extrinsic parameters such as diffusion lengths and generation-recombination (GR) lifetimes on N/P and P/N devices performances are clearly demonstrated. We also report for the first time the improvement attainable through the use of a new patterned tunnel junction as the inter cell ohmic interconnect. Such a design minimizes the light absorption in the interconnect region and leads to a noticeable increase in the cell efficiency. Our computations predict 27 percent AMO efficiency for N/P tandems with ideality factor gamma = 2 (GR lifetimes approximately equal 1 micron), and 36 percent for gamma = 1 (GR lifetimes approximately equals 100 microns). The method of optimization and the values of the physical and optical parameters are discussed.

Renaud, P.↗

NASA NTRS2008

The US CLIVAR Working Group on Drought: A Multi-Model Assessment of the Impact of SST Anomalies on Regional Drought

Schubert, Siegfried↗

NASA NTRS2015

Long-Term Changes/Trends in Surface Temperature and Precipitation During the Satellite Era (1979-2012)

During the post-1979 period in which the satellite-based precipitation measurements with global coverage are available, global mean surface temperature rapidly increased up to late 1990s, followed by a period of temperature hiatus after about 19981999. Comparing observed surface temperature trends against the simulated ones by the CMIP5 historical experiments especially in the zonal mean context suggests that although the anthropogenic greenhouse-gases (GHG) forcing has played a major role, in addition to the anthropogenic aerosols and various natural forcings, the effects from decadal-to-interdecadal scale internal modes specifically the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO) are also very strong. Evident temperature changes associated with the PDOs phase shift are seen in the Pacific basin, with decadal-scale cooling in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and most of the east basin and concurrent warming in the subtropics of both hemispheres,even though the PDOs net effect on global mean temperature is relatively weak. The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation(AMO) also changed its phase in the mid-1990s, and hence its possible impact is estimated and assessed as well.However, comparisons with CMIP5 simulations suggest that the AMO may have not contributed as significantly as the PDO in terms of the changes trends in global surface temperature, even though the data analysis technique used here suggests otherwise. Long-term precipitation changes or trends during the post-1979 period are further shown to have been modulated by the two major factors:anthropogenic GHG and PDO, in addition to the relatively weak effects from aerosols and natural forcings. The spatial patterns of observed precipitation trends in the Pacific,including reductions in the tropical central-eastern Pacific and increases in the tropical western Pacific and along the South Pacific Convergence Zone, manifest the PDOs contributions.Removing the PDO effect from the total precipitation trends makes the spatial structures of precipitation trends more similar to those simulated by CMIP5 historical full forcing experiments particularly in the context of zonal-mean results. This also confirms that in spite of the PDO effect specifically on regional scales, the anthropogenic GHG signals are still discernible in observed precipitation during the time period. Following the increase of GHG, precipitation tends to increase roughly along the climatological ITCZ and decrease south of the equator and in the subtropics of both hemispheres.

GPCP↗

NASA NTRS1993

The nature of the Landers-Mojave earthquake line

The Landers, California, earthquake of 28 June 1992 (magnitude = 7.3) is the latest of six significant earthquakes in the past 60 years whose epicenters and slip directions define a 100-kilometer alignment running approximately N 15 deg W across the central Mojave region. This pattern may indicate a geologically young throughgoing fault that replaces numerous older strike-slip faults by obliquely cutting across them. These older faults, and perhaps also the bend in the San Andreas fault, may be losing their ability to accommodate upper crustal deformation because they have become unfavorably oriented with respect to the regional stress field.

Nur, Amos↗

NASA NTRS2007

The Hyper-X Flight Systems Validation Program

For the Hyper-X/X-43A program, the development of a comprehensive validation test plan played an integral part in the success of the mission. The goal was to demonstrate hypersonic propulsion technologies by flight testing an airframe-integrated scramjet engine. Preparation for flight involved both verification and validation testing. By definition, verification is the process of assuring that the product meets design requirements; whereas validation is the process of assuring that the design meets mission requirements for the intended environment. This report presents an overview of the program with emphasis on the validation efforts. It includes topics such as hardware-in-the-loop, failure modes and effects, aircraft-in-the-loop, plugs-out, power characterization, antenna pattern, integration, combined systems, captive carry, and flight testing. Where applicable, test results are also discussed. The report provides a brief description of the flight systems onboard the X-43A research vehicle and an introduction to the ground support equipment required to execute the validation plan. The intent is to provide validation concepts that are applicable to current, follow-on, and next generation vehicles that share the hybrid spacecraft and aircraft characteristics of the Hyper-X vehicle.

Redifer, Matthew↗