Analysis of Russian ASAT Debris Cloud
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Mark Matney↗
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Pursuit/evasion in orbit
Maneuvers available to a spacecraft having sufficient propellant to escape an antisatellite satellite (ASAT) attack are examined. The ASAT and the evading spacecraft are regarded as being in circular orbits, and equations of motion are developed for the ASAT to commence a two-impulse maneuver sequence. The ASAT employs thrust impulses which yield a minimum-time-to-rendezvous, considering available fuel. Optimal evasion is shown to involve only in-plane maneuvers, and begins as soon as the ASAT launch information is gathered and thrust activation can be initiated. A closest approach, along with a maximum evasion by the target spacecraft, is calculated to be 14,400 ft. Further research to account for ASATs in parking orbit and for generalization of a continuous control-modeled differential game is indicated.
Kelley, H. J.↗
Space Debris Symposium (A6.) Measurements and Space Surveillance (1.): Measurements of the Small Particle Debris Cloud from the 11 January, 2007 Chinese Anti-satellite Test
On January 11, 2007, the Chinese military conducted a test of an anti-satellite (ASAT) system, destroying their own Fengyun-1C spacecraft with an interceptor missile. The resulting hypervelocity collision created an unprecedented number of tracked debris - more than 2500 objects. These objects represent only those large enough for the US Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to track - typically objects larger than about 5-10 cm in diameter. There are expected to be even more debris objects at sizes too small to be seen and tracked by the SSN. Because of the altitude of the target satellite (865 x 845 km orbit), many of the debris are expected to have long orbital lifetimes and contribute to the orbital debris environment for decades to come. In the days and weeks following the ASAT test, NASA was able to use Lincoln Laboratory s Haystack radar on several occasions to observe portions of the ASAT debris cloud. Haystack has the capability of detecting objects down to less than one centimeter in diameter, and a large number of centimeter-sized particles corresponding to the ASAT cloud were clearly seen in the data. While Haystack cannot track these objects, the statistical sampling procedures NASA uses can give an accurate statistical picture of the characteristics of the debris from a breakup event. For years computer models based on data from ground hypervelocity collision tests (e.g., the SOCIT test) and orbital collision experiments (e.g., the P-78 and Delta-180 on-orbit collisions) have been used to predict the extent and characteristics of such hypervelocity collision debris clouds, but until now there have not been good ways to verify these models in the centimeter size regime. It is believed that unplanned collisions of objects in space similar to ASAT tests will drive the long-term future evolution of the debris environment in near-Earth space. Therefore, the Chinese ASAT test provides an excellent opportunity to test the models used to predict the future debris environment. For this study, Haystack detection events are compared to model predictions to test the model assumptions, including debris size distribution, velocity distribution, and assumptions about momentum transfer between the target and interceptor. In this paper we will present the results of these and other measurements on the size and extent of collisional breakup debris clouds.
Matney, Mark J.↗
Avionics System Architecture Tool
Avionics System Architecture Tool (ASAT) is a computer program intended for use during the avionics-system-architecture- design phase of the process of designing a spacecraft for a specific mission. ASAT enables simulation of the dynamics of the command-and-data-handling functions of the spacecraft avionics in the scenarios in which the spacecraft is expected to operate. ASAT is built upon I-Logix Statemate MAGNUM, providing a complement of dynamic system modeling tools, including a graphical user interface (GUI), modeling checking capabilities, and a simulation engine. ASAT augments this with a library of predefined avionics components and additional software to support building and analyzing avionics hardware architectures using these components.
Chau, Savio↗
Mass estimation in the breakups of Soviet satellites
An attempt is made to estimate the mass of the parent satellite from the mass of the debris remaining from its breakup using a technique based on the decay rate and radar cross-section time history. The decay of perigee and apogee with time of an object in orbit provides the area-to-mass ratio and the radar cross-section provides a measure of the effective area of the object, while combining the two gives the mass of the object. The technique has been successfully applied to 12 U.S. breakups and one Arianespace breakup. Calculations exhibiting good agreement with reference mass are also discussed for Soviet intact C-class boosters, intact ASAT target satellites, and intact navigational satellites. It is found that the calculated mass of the ASAT interceptor spacecraft is about one-half of the expected mass, but it is pointed out that this may be due to fuel carried on board. For ASAT target breakups the calculated mass is 20-30 times too low; no clear explanation can yet be found for this phenomenon.
Badhwar, Gautam D.↗
A Comparison of Three Catastrophic On-Orbit Collisions
Orbital debris environment models, such as NASA's LEGEND model, show that accidental collisions between satellites will begin to be the dominant cause for future debris population growth within the foreseeable future. The collisional breakup models employed are obviously a critical component of the environment models. The Chinese Anti-Satellite (ASAT) test which destroyed the Fengyun-1C weather satellite provided a rare, but not unique, chance to compare the breakup models against an actual on-orbit collision. Measurements from the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN), for debris larger than 10-cm, and from Haystack, for debris larger than 1-cm, show that the number of fragments created from Fengyun significantly exceeds model predictions using the NASA Standard Collisional Breakup Model. However, it may not be appropriate to alter the model to match this one, individual case. Two other on-orbit collisions have occurred in the past which have produced significant numbers of debris fragments. In September 1985, the U.S. conducted an ASAT test against the Solwind P-78 spacecraft at an altitude of approximately 525 km. A year later, in September 1986, the Delta 180 payload was struck by its Delta II rocket body in a planned collision at 220 km altitude. Although no Haystack data is available in 1985-6 and very few debris pieces were cataloged from Delta 180 due to its low altitude, measurements were collected in dedicated tests by phased array radars in the SSN in the days after each test. This paper will examine the available radar data from each test and compare and contrast the results with model predictions and with the results from the more recent Fengyun ASAT test.
Stansbery, Gene↗
Orbital debris and near-Earth environmental management: A chronology
This chronology covers the 32-year history of orbital debris and near-Earth environmental concerns. It tracks near-Earth environmental hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy-making, with emphasis on the orbital debris problem. Included are the Project West Ford experiments; Soviet ASAT tests and U.S. Delta upper stage explosions; the Ariane V16 explosion, U.N. treaties pertinent to near-Earth environmental problems, the PARCS tests; space nuclear power issues, the SPS/orbital debris link; Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; the Solwind ASAT test; milestones in theory and modeling the Cosmos 954, Salyut 7, and Skylab reentries; the orbital debris/meteoroid research link; detection system development; orbital debris shielding development; popular culture and orbital debris; Solar Max results; LDEF results; orbital debris issues peculiar to geosynchronous orbit, including reboost policies and the stable plane; seminal papers, reports, and studies; the increasing effects of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.
Portree, David S. F.↗
Engineering and Technology Challenges for Active Debris Removal
After more than fifty years of space activities, the near-Earth environment is polluted with man-made orbital debris. The collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009 signaled a potential collision cascade effect, also known as the "Kessler Syndrome", in the environment. Various modelling studies have suggested that the commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be sufficient to stabilize the future debris population. Active debris removal must be considered to remediate the environment. This paper summarizes the key issues associated with debris removal and describes the technology and engineering challenges to move forward. Fifty-four years after the launch of Sputnik 1, satellites have become an integral part of human society. Unfortunately, the ongoing space activities have left behind an undesirable byproduct orbital debris. This environment problem is threatening the current and future space activities. On average, two Shuttle window panels are replaced after every mission due to damage by micrometeoroid or orbital debris impacts. More than 100 collision avoidance maneuvers were conducted by satellite operators in 2010 to reduce the impact risks of their satellites with respect to objects in the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN) catalog. Of the four known accident collisions between objects in the SSN catalog, the last one, collision between Cosmos 2251 and the operational Iridium 33 in 2009, was the most significant. It was the first ever accidental catastrophic destruction of an operational satellite by another satellite. It also signaled the potential collision cascade effect in the environment, commonly known as the "Kessler Syndrome," predicted by Kessler and Cour-Palais in 1978 [1]. Figure 1 shows the historical increase of objects in the SSN catalog. The majority of the catalog objects are 10 cm and larger. As of April 2011, the total objects tracked by the SSN sensors were more than 22,000. However, approximately 6000 of them had yet to be fully processed and entered into the catalog. This population had been dominated by fragmentation debris throughout history. Before the anti-satellite test (ASAT) conducted by China in 2007, the fragmentation debris were almost all explosion fragments. After the ASAT test and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251, the ratio of collision fragments to explosion fragments was about one-to-one. It is expected that accidental collision fragments will further dominate the environment in the future.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗
Design of Launch Vehicle Flight Control Systems Using Ascent Vehicle Stability Analysis Tool
A launch vehicle represents a complicated flex-body structural environment for flight control system design. The Ascent-vehicle Stability Analysis Tool (ASAT) is developed to address the complicity in design and analysis of a launch vehicle. The design objective for the flight control system of a launch vehicle is to best follow guidance commands while robustly maintaining system stability. A constrained optimization approach takes the advantage of modern computational control techniques to simultaneously design multiple control systems in compliance with required design specs. "Tower Clearance" and "Load Relief" designs have been achieved for liftoff and max dynamic pressure flight regions, respectively, in the presence of large wind disturbances. The robustness of the flight control system designs has been verified in the frequency domain Monte Carlo analysis using ASAT.
Jang, Jiann-Woei↗
On the Trend of the Annual Mean, Maximum, and Minimum Temperature and the Diurnal Temperature Range in the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, Dataset, 1844 -2012
Examined are the annual averages, 10-year moving averages, decadal averages, and sunspot cycle (SC) length averages of the mean, maximum, and minimum surface air temperatures and the diurnal temperature range (DTR) for the Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, during the interval 1844-2012. Strong upward trends are apparent in the Armagh surface-air temperatures (ASAT), while a strong downward trend is apparent in the DTR, especially when the ASAT data are averaged by decade or over individual SC lengths. The long-term decrease in the decadaland SC-averaged annual DTR occurs because the annual minimum temperatures have risen more quickly than the annual maximum temperatures. Estimates are given for the Armagh annual mean, maximum, and minimum temperatures and the DTR for the current decade (2010-2019) and SC24.
Wilson, Robert M.↗
Observations of Small Debris from the Cosmos 1408 Anti-Satellite Test using the HUSIR and Goldstone Radars
On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted a direct-ascent, anti-satellite (ASAT) test against its Cosmos 1408 satellite, which had been in orbit since 1982. The test produced at least 1500 fragments trackable by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN). This is a significant event because the resulting cloud has the potential to endanger the International Space Station and other satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO).For almost 30 years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has been using the Haystack Ultrawideband Imaging Radar (HUSIR), located in Tyngsborough, Massachusetts and operated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory, to perform statistical measurements of debris in LEO too small to be tracked by the SSN, nominally down to 5.5 mm at 1000 km altitude. The ODPO also utilizes the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar (Goldstone), located near Barstow, California and operated by the NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to characterize the small debris environment in LEO down to approximately 3 mm at 1000 km altitude. To characterize the small debris component of the Cosmos 1408 ASAT test, a series of observation campaigns were conducted with the HUSIR and Goldstone radars. This paper discusses the observation planning, including beam overlap analysis required for the Goldstone’s bistatic operation, using a model of the debris cloud produced using the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model. A description of the radars and the data processing techniques used to analyze the data are also discussed. Finally, results of the measurement campaigns including cumulative flux versus size, altitude, and inclination are presented.
James Murray↗
Observations of Small Debris from the Cosmos 1408 Anti-Satellite Test using the HUSIR and Goldstone Radars
On 15 November 2021, Russia conducted a direct-ascent anti-satellite (ASAT) test against its Cosmos 1408 satellite, which had been in orbit since 1982. The test produced at least 1500 fragments trackable by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network (SSN). The test is a significant event because the resulting cloud has the potential to endanger the International Space Station and other satellites in low Earth orbit (LEO). For almost 30 years, the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ODPO) has used the Haystack Ultrawideband Satellite Imaging Radar (HUSIR), operated by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology’s Lincoln Laboratory to perform statistical measurements of debris in LEO too small to be tracked by the SSN, nominally down to 5.5 mm at 1000 km altitude. The ODPO also utilizes the Goldstone Orbital Debris Radar (Goldstone), operated by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, to characterize the small debris environment in LEO down to approximately 3 mm at 1000 km altitude. To characterize the small debris component of the Cosmos 1408 ASAT test, a series of observation campaigns were conducted with the HUSIR and Goldstone radars. This paper discusses the observation planning, including beam overlap analysis needed for Goldstone bistatic operation, using a model of the debris cloud produced with the NASA Standard Satellite Breakup Model. A description of the radars and the data processing techniques used to analyze the data are also discussed. Finally, results of the measurement campaigns including cumulative count rate versus size and surface area flux versus altitude and inclination are presented
James Murray↗
Modeling the Europa Pathfinder avionics system with a model based avionics architecture tool
In order to shorten the avionics architecture development time, the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has developed a model-based architecture simultion tool called the Avionics System Architecture Tool (ASAT).
avionics Europa pathfinder Europa ASAT↗
LACIE status and tracking
The operational requirements and development of a system designed to meet LACIE needs for data to be available at given stations simultaneously, to measure throughput rates, and perform efficiency analyses are described. The final automated status and tracking system (ASATS) is defined and problems encountered during its evolutionary process are discussed.
Dauphin, V. M.↗
Acoustic Source Bearing Estimation (ASBE) computer program development
A new bearing estimation algorithm (Acoustic Source Analysis Technique - ASAT) and an acoustic analysis computer program (Acoustic Source Bearing Estimation - ASBE) are described, which were developed by Computer Sciences Corporation for NASA Langley Research Center. The ASBE program is used by the Acoustics Division/Applied Acoustics Branch and the Instrument Research Division/Electro-Mechanical Instrumentation Branch to analyze acoustic data and estimate the azimuths from which the source signals radiated. Included are the input and output from a benchmark test case.
Wiese, Michael R.↗
Orbital Debris: A Chronology
This chronology covers the 37-year history of orbital debris concerns. It tracks orbital debris hazard creation, research, observation, experimentation, management, mitigation, protection, and policy. Included are debris-producing, events; U.N. orbital debris treaties, Space Shuttle and space station orbital debris issues; ASAT tests; milestones in theory and modeling; uncontrolled reentries; detection system development; shielding development; geosynchronous debris issues, including reboost policies: returned surfaces studies, seminar papers reports, conferences, and studies; the increasing effect of space activities on astronomy; and growing international awareness of the near-Earth environment.
Portree, Davis S. F.↗
Ares-I Bending Filter Design using a Constrained Optimization Approach
The Ares-I launch vehicle represents a challenging flex-body structural environment for control system design. Software filtering of the inertial sensor output is required to ensure adequate stable response to guidance commands while minimizing trajectory deviations. This paper presents a design methodology employing numerical optimization to develop the Ares-I bending filters. The design objectives include attitude tracking accuracy and robust stability with respect to rigid body dynamics, propellant slosh, and flex. Under the assumption that the Ares-I time-varying dynamics and control system can be frozen over a short period of time, the bending filters are designed to stabilize all the selected frozen-time launch control systems in the presence of parameter uncertainty. To ensure adequate response to guidance command, step response specifications are introduced as constraints in the optimization problem. Imposing these constrains minimizes performance degradation caused by the addition of the bending filters. The first stage bending filter design achieves stability by adding lag to the first structural frequency to phase stabilize the first flex mode while gain stabilizing the higher modes. The upper stage bending filter design gain stabilizes all the flex bending modes. The bending filter designs provided here have been demonstrated to provide stable first and second stage control systems in both Draper Ares Stability Analysis Tool (ASAT) and the MSFC MAVERIC 6DOF nonlinear time domain simulation.
Hall, Charles↗
An Assessment of the Current LEO Debris Environment and the Need for Active Debris Removal
The anti-satellite test on the Fengun-1 C weather satellite in early 2007 and the collision between Iridium 33 and Cosmos 2251 in 2009 dramatically altered the landscape of the human-made orbital debris environment in the low Earth orbit (LEO). The two events generated approximately 5500 fragments large enough to be tracked by the U.S. Space Surveillance Network. Those fragments account for more than 60% increase to the debris population in LEO. However, even before the ASAT test, model analyses already indicated that the debris population (for those larger than 10 cm) in LEO had reached a point where the population would continue to increase, due to collisions among existing objects, even without any future launches. The conclusion implies that as satellites continue to be launched and unexpected breakup events continue to occur, commonly-adopted mitigation measures will not be able to stop the collision-driven population growth. To remediate the debris environment in LEO, active debris removal must be considered. This presentation will provide an updated assessment of the debris environment after the Iridium 33/Cosmos 2251 collision, an analysis of several future environment projections based on different scenarios, and a projection of collision activities in LEO in the near future. The need to use active debris removal to stabilize future debris environment will be demonstrated and the effectiveness of various active debris removal strategies will be quantified.
Liou, Jer-Chyi↗