ASCENT-TRAME BRIDGE
SF-25-116 Bridge for accessing Ascent extracts in a Trame application to create intuitive computational steering interfaces for HPC simulations.
MARRINAN, THOMASJOHN [Argonne National Laboratory ↗
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Bridging Gaps in Simulation Analysis through a General Purpose, Bidirectional Steering Interface with Ascent
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Computer science↗
Cloud Feedback Uncertainty in the Equatorial Pacific Across CMIP6 Models
Cloud feedback is the largest uncertainty in estimating Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity. In this study we focus on the equatorial Pacific, where CMIP6 model cloud feedback spread is notably large. Cloud radiative effects in this region are relevant for the global climate. Our findings show that models predict a consistent shift towards the ascent regime in response to El Nino-like sea surface warming. Models diverge in terms of the radiative impact due to differences in cloud characteristics in ascent and subsidence regimes. Using the observed relationship between circulation regime and cloud radiative effect, we find a reduction in the regional mean cloud feedback estimate from 0.77 to 0.22 W m -2 K -1 , though this does not substantially lessen the model spread in total feedback. Pathways to reduce this spread include: improving confidence in the regional ocean warming pattern, and using observations and models to understand cloud type and circulation interactions.
CMIP6↗
Urban Land Surface Effects on Summertime Clouds and Moist Convection in Houston Under Different Synoptic Conditions
Urban landscapes modify cloud formation and convection through complex thermodynamic and aerodynamic processes; however, their influence under different synoptic regimes remains poorly understood. This study investigates the impact of the Houston metropolitan area on summertime cloud cover and convective cell characteristics using a combination of satellite observations, radar data, and high-resolution process-based modeling. We isolate urban effects by comparing model simulations with realistic urban land cover against hypothetical scenarios where all urban areas are replaced by rural vegetation. Results reveal that Houston's land cover consistently enhances cloud fraction and convective activity relative to surrounding rural areas, altered by large-scale meteorological forcing. Under weakly forced conditions, enhanced surface heat flux primarily contributes to driving low-level convergence and vertical ascent, leading to over 8% cloud fraction increase between 2 and 6 km over the city. Under strongly forced conditions, urban influences manifest differently depending on cloud type. For non-convective clouds, the city acts as a barrier that decelerates and lifts moist southerly inflow, increasing low cloud cover over the urban core, while decreasing it downwind the city. For convective clouds, both synoptic ascent and urbanization modulate moisture redistribution and cloud structure, producing modest cloud enhancement over the city and slight suppression over the downwind area. Urbanization exerts small changes in the intensity of the convective cells; however, it significantly decreases their duration and traveling distance. This work highlights the importance of accounting for land surface heterogeneity in modeling clouds and precipitation and demonstrates that urban impacts on clouds are highly regime-dependent.
Liu, Ye [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PN↗
Tropical Cyclone Wind Shear-Relative Asymmetry in Reanalyses
Abstract While tropical cyclones (TCs) are axisymmetric vortices to the first order, they often exhibit noteworthy structural asymmetries. These often result from environmental vertical wind shear, which tilts the vortex and induces a wavenumber 1 pattern in the circulation and precipitation fields. Reanalyses and climate models have improved in representing the TC structure and climatology, but their relatively coarse resolution and dependence on parameterized physics cast doubt on their ability to capture the asymmetric TC structure. We perform the most comprehensive process-oriented assessment of TC asymmetry to date in reanalyses. Specifically, we analyze the composite shear-relative TC structure in ERA5 and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR), which vary in their resolutions, physical parameterization suites, and data assimilation techniques. These structures are compared with aircraft reconnaissance radar observations. In agreement with the observations, the strongest tangential winds are usually found left-of-shear, while inner core rainfall, ascent, vortex tilt, and low-level inflow are favored directly downshear or in the downshear-left quadrant. Outer rainband convection generally peaks in the downshear-right quadrant. Thermodynamic asymmetries are also apparent, with anomalous low-level moisture right-of-shear, midlevel warmth in the upshear-right quadrant (uptilt), and cloud properties suggestive of a realistic precipitation life cycle from growth to fallout. We also decompose rainfall contributions from the convective parameterization and large-scale cloud schemes and highlight the roles of vorticity advection, buoyancy advection, and diabatic processes in driving asymmetric vertical motions in the inner core and outer rainband regions. Our results suggest that process-level studies of TC asymmetry and TC–wind shear interaction under future warming are viable using climate models. Significance Statement Asymmetries are common in tropical cyclones (TCs), influencing their intensity, track, and hazards. Vertical wind shear often plays a leading-order role in causing these asymmetries. It is uncertain how well asymmetric structures and processes are captured in reanalyses and global climate models (GCMs) with grid spacings of 0.25° and coarser. In this study, we first evaluate TC asymmetry in reanalyses, which have the benefit of being forced by observations. This helps to assess whether the resolutions associated with GCMs sufficiently capture asymmetric structures and processes and motivates upcoming work with free-running GCMs to study how TC asymmetry may change in a warming climate.
Carstens, Jacob D.↗
Tropical High Cloud Feedback Relationships to Climate Sensitivity
Clouds constitute a large portion of uncertainty in predictions of equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). While low cloud feedbacks have been the focus of intermodel studies due to their high variability among global climate models, tropical high cloud feedbacks also exhibit considerable uncertainty. Here, we apply the cloud radiative kernel technique of Zelinka et al. to 22 models across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles to survey tropical high cloud feedbacks and analyze their relationship to ECS. We find that the net high cloud feedback and its altitude and optical depth feedback components are significantly positively correlated with ECS in the tropical mean. On the other hand, the tropical mean high cloud amount feedback is not correlated with ECS. These relationships are most pronounced outside of areas of strong climatological ascent, suggesting the importance of thin cirrus feedbacks. Finally, we explore connections between high cloud feedbacks, climate sensitivity, and mean state high cloud properties. In general, high ECS models are cloudier in the upper troposphere but have a thinner high cloud population. Furthermore, we find that having more thin cirrus in the mean state relates to more positive high cloud altitude and optical depth feedbacks, and it either amplifies or dampens the high cloud amount feedback depending on the large-scale dynamical regime (amplifying in descent and dampening in ascent). In summary, our analysis highlights the importance of tropical high cloud feedbacks for driving intermodel spread in ECS and suggests that mean state high cloud characteristics might provide a unique opportunity for observationally constraining high cloud feedbacks.
atmosphere↗
Evaluation of the EarthSHAB Stratospheric Solar Hot Air Balloon Flight Prediction Model Using Balloon Trajectory Data
Abstract The heliotrope is a solar balloon design which is constructed out of painter’s plastic, and the exterior is coated in charcoal powder. Darkening the plastic gives the balloon a high solar absorptance, which allows it to ascend into the lower stratosphere and float for hours at a time. The balloons have previously been used to lift scientific instruments into the stratosphere to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, and stratospheric aerosols. They have also been proposed as a platform for planetary exploration. Flight predictions are crucial to preflight planning to reduce safety risks and meet flight objectives. However, there exists a wide range of possible flight paths due to varying environmental conditions and solar balloon configurations. EarthSHAB is one such software that was designed to support flight planning using the weather forecasts and balloon properties to predict the flight path of a solar balloon. We compare EarthSHAB-simulated flight paths to a set of observed flight paths for the 3.5-m diameter heliotrope design called the “Cloudskimmer.” Using the criteria that the modeled paths must fall within 5% of the observations to be considered successful, we found that EarthSHAB successfully predicted the Cloudskimmer ascent rate and average float altitude 10% and 90% of the time, respectively. We also found that the average difference in the observed and predicted landing locations was 97 km and landing times were 54 ± 38 min. Significant deviations between the observed and predicted ascent rates and excursions at float were found to be associated with heavy payloads and convective cloud development, respectively. Significance Statement Solar balloons are used to lift scientific instruments into the lower stratosphere for hours at a time to study chemical explosions, earthquakes, stratospheric aerosols, and more. The flight paths of solar balloons can be difficult to predict due to variability in their design and surrounding environment. We evaluate the accuracy of EarthSHAB, a software that predicts the altitude profile and horizontal trajectory of a solar balloon using inputs such as the weather, balloon size, and balloon mass. Our results suggest that for the balloon design used in this study, EarthSHAB is best suited for modeling the behavior of balloons with lightweight payloads that do not fly within or directly above clouds.
Lien, Jessica M. [Sandia National Laboratories, Al↗
Comparison of GOES16 Data with the TRACER-ESCAPE Field Campaign Dataset for Convection Characterization: A Selection of Case Studies and Lessons Learnt
Convective updrafts are one of the main characteristics of convective clouds, responsible for the convective mass flux and the redistribution of energy and condensate in the atmosphere. During the early stages of their lifecycle, convective clouds experience rapid cloud-top ascent manifested by a decrease in the geostationary IR brightness temperature (𝑇𝐵 𝐼𝑅 ). Under the assumption that the convective cloud top behaves like a black body, the ascent rate of the convective cloud top can be estimated as ($\frac{∂𝑇𝐵_{𝐼𝑅}}{∂𝑡}$), and it can be used to infer the near cloud-top convective updraft. The temporal resolution of the geostationary IR measurements and non-uniform beam-filling effects can influence the convective updraft estimation. However, the main shortcoming until today was the lack of independent verification of the strength of the convective updraft. Here, Doppler radar observations from the ESCAPE and TRACER field experiments provide independent estimates of the convective updraft velocity at higher spatiotemporal resolution throughout the convective core column and can be used to evaluate the updraft velocity estimates from the IR cooling rate for limited samples. Isolated convective cells were tracked with dedicated radar (RHIs and PPIs) scans throughout their lifecycle. Radial Doppler velocity measurements near the convective cloud top are used to provide estimates of convective updrafts. These data are compared with the geostationary IR and VIS channels (from the GOES satellite) to characterize the convection evolution and lifecycle based on cloud-top cooling rates.
TRACER/ESCAPE field campaign↗
Distributed Online Voltage Control in Distribution Network: A Two-Stage Real-Time Implementation
The increasing integration of renewable-based distributed generation (DG) brings growing challenges to distribution network (DN) voltage control. To address this issue, a two-stage distributed online voltage control framework (TDO-VC) is proposed in this paper. In the proposed method, legacy voltage control devices are controlled in the upper stage on an hourly timescale, while DGs operate autonomously online in the lower stage to remove instantaneous voltage violations. The idea of receding horizon control is applied in the upper stage to comprehensively consider the current and future renewable generation, and the generalized fast dual ascent (Gf-DA) is employed in the lower stage to effectively manage DGs through near real-time optimization. The effectiveness of the proposed TDO-VC is demonstrated by rigorous theoretical analysis and case studies on IEEE-123 bus system.
Distributed generation↗
Stressful crystal histories recorded around melt inclusions in volcanic quartz
Abstract Magma ascent and eruption are driven by a set of internally and externally generated stresses that act upon the magma. We present microstructural maps around melt inclusions in quartz crystals from six large rhyolitic eruptions using synchrotron Laue X-ray microdiffraction to quantify elastic residual strain and stress. We measure plastic strain using average diffraction peak width and lattice misorientation, highlighting dislocations and subgrain boundaries. Quartz crystals across studied magma systems preserve similar and relatively small magnitudes of elastic residual stress (mean 53–135 MPa, median 46–116 MPa) in comparison to the strength of quartz (~ 10 GPa). However, the distribution of strain in the lattice around inclusions varies between samples. We hypothesize that dislocation and twin systems may be established during compaction of crystal-rich magma, which affects the magnitude and distribution of preserved elastic strains. Given the lack of stress-free haloes around faceted inclusions, we conclude that most residual strain and stress was imparted after inclusion faceting. Fragmentation may be one of the final strain events that superimposes stresses of ~ 100 MPa across all studied crystals. Overall, volcanic quartz crystals preserve complex, overprinted deformation textures indicating that quartz crystals have prolonged deformation histories throughout storage, fragmentation, and eruption.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Migration and accumulation of hydrous mantle incipient melt in the Earth's asthenosphere: Constraints from in-situ falling sphere viscometry measurements
The Earth's oceanic lithosphere-asthenosphere boundary (LAB) is marked by a notable decrease in seismic wave velocities and an increase in attenuation. This phenomenon is likely attributed to the accumulation of partial melt at the top of the asthenosphere. Nevertheless, the process involving the upward migration and aggregation of low-degree partial melts, highly likely to be mantle incipient melts in the asthenosphere, remains underexplored. Viscosity is a key factor controlling the flow of melts, thus in this study, we used In-situ X-ray falling sphere viscometry experiments to determine the viscosity of the mantle incipient melt containing 1.8–4.0 wt.% water at 1.5–6 GPa and 2100 K. We found that water and pressure can effectively decrease the viscosity of the mantle incipient melt. Therefore, the mantle incipient melts are highly mobile with a high segregation velocity in the deeper part of the asthenosphere. However, during ascent, their mobility diminishes due to an increase in viscosity and a decrease in water content. In conclusion, these mechanisms potentially contribute to the accumulation of partial melt at the top of the asthenosphere.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗
Formation of a Large Cold Groundwater Mantle Helium Anomaly and High Temperature Geothermal Resources in Response to Bimodal Magmatism Near Roosevelt Hot Springs and Utah FORGE, Milford Valley, Southwest Utah
Abstract A large mantle helium anomaly and separate domains of high heat flow are the predominant manifestations of bimodal magmatic activity in the Milford valley. The mantle helium anomaly (1.9–2.6 R/Ra) covers 270 km 2 and is subdivided into two separated domains: a cold shallow groundwater regime and high temperature hydrothermal activity. The zone of anomalous heat flow covers >100 km 2 and is also subdivided into two adjacent domains, comprising hydrothermal activity at Roosevelt Hot Springs (RHS) (3–7 W/m 2 ) and conductive heat flow (100–180 mW/m 2 ). While the transfer of heat and mantle helium at RHS are coupled, heat and helium transfer are decoupled in the adjacent cold groundwater regime to the west. Both the mantle helium and geothermal anomalies are attributed to recent mafic‐felsic magmatic intrusions of >400 km 3 , however, the absence of volcanic eruptions <500,000 years indicates magmas stall before rising to shallow crustal level <10 km depth. Deep level magmatism produces a felsic composition melt, which is inferred to be responsible for the widespread and near uniform range of diluted mantle helium values. A thick and impermeable mass of crystalline granitic basement rock at the mid‐crustal level divides the ascent of mantle helium into separate flow paths. It may also impede the rise of buoyant magma trapping thermal energy that facilitates partial melting, slow cooling, and development of a thick thermal aureole. Partitioning of convective and conductive thermal regimes and independent flow paths supplying deeply derived helium characterize the development of a large long‐lived magma‐related geothermal system.
Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
Impact of Turbulence Representation on the Relationship Between Cloud Feedback and Aerosol‐Cloud Interaction in an E3SMv2 Perturbed Parameter Ensemble
Recent studies reveal an anti‐correlation between global cloud feedback (CF) and effective radiative forcing due to aerosol‐cloud interaction (ERFaci) in Earth system models, but the physical mechanisms underlying it remain uncertain. Here we investigate how different turbulence representations contribute to this relationship over the global ocean using an ensemble of Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 simulations with perturbed turbulence parameters. The anti‐correlation appears only in the tropical ascent regime. In the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude and high latitude regimes, there is no significant correlation, and in the tropical marine low cloud and Southern Ocean regimes, the correlation is positive. These opposite correlations are primarily driven by opposing CF responses to perturbed parameters. We find that the mean‐state turbulent mixing strength affects both CF and ERFaci, enabling strong correlations in certain regimes. This study highlights the complex linkages between CF and ERFaci through turbulent processes across diverse cloud regimes.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Low responsiveness of machine learning models to critical or deteriorating health conditions
Machine learning (ML) based mortality prediction models can be immensely useful in intensive care units. Such a model should generate warnings to alert physicians when a patient’s condition rapidly deteriorates, or their vitals are in highly abnormal ranges. Before clinical deployment, it is important to comprehensively assess a model’s ability to recognize critical patient conditions. We develop multiple medical ML testing approaches, including a gradient ascent method and neural activation map. We systematically assess these machine learning models’ ability to respond to serious medical conditions using additional test cases, some of which are time series. Guided by medical doctors, our evaluation involves multiple machine learning models, resampling techniques, and four datasets for two clinical prediction tasks. We identify serious deficiencies in the models’ responsiveness, with the models being unable to recognize severely impaired medical conditions or rapidly deteriorating health. For in-hospital mortality prediction, the models tested using our synthesized cases fail to recognize 66% of the injuries. In some instances, the models fail to generate adequate mortality risk scores for all test cases. Our study identifies similar kinds of deficiencies in the responsiveness of 5-year breast and lung cancer prediction models. Using generated test cases, we find that statistical machine-learning models trained solely from patient data are grossly insufficient and have many dangerous blind spots. Most of the ML models tested fail to respond adequately to critically ill patients. How to incorporate medical knowledge into clinical machine learning models is an important future research direction.
60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
Hamiltonian switching control of noisy bipartite qubit systems
Abstract We develop a Hamiltonian switching ansatz for bipartite control that is inspired by the quantum approximate optimization algorithm, to mitigate environmental noise on qubits. We demonstrate the control for a central spin coupled to bath spins via isotropic Heisenberg interactions, and then make physical applications to the protection of quantum gates performed on superconducting transmon qubits coupling to environmental two-level-systems (TLSs) through dipole-dipole interactions, as well as on such qubits coupled to both TLSs and a Lindblad bath. The control field is classical and acts only on the system qubits. We use reinforcement learning with policy gradient to optimize the Hamiltonian switching control protocols, using a fidelity objective for specific target quantum gates. We use this approach to demonstrate effective suppression of both coherent and dissipative noise, with numerical studies achieving target gate implementations with fidelities over 0.9999 (four nines) in the majority of our test cases and showing improvement beyond this to values of 0.999 999 999 (nine nines) upon a subsequent optimization by GRadient Ascent Pulse Engineering (GRAPE). We analyze how the control depth, total evolution time, number of environmental TLS, and choice of optimization method affect the fidelity achieved by the optimal protocols and reveal some critical behaviors of bipartite control of quantum gates.
Physics↗
Supercharging simulation-based inference for Bayesian optimal experimental design
Abstract Bayesian optimal experimental design (BOED) seeks to maximize the expected information gain (EIG) of experiments. This requires a likelihood estimate, which in many settings is intractable. Simulation-based inference (SBI) provides powerful tools for this regime. However, existing work explicitly connecting SBI and BOED is restricted to a single contrastive EIG bound. We show that the EIG admits multiple formulations which can directly leverage modern SBI density estimators, encompassing neural posterior, likelihood, and ratio estimation. Building on this perspective, we define a novel EIG estimator using neural likelihood estimation. Further, we identify optimization as a key bottleneck of gradient based EIG maximization and show that a simple multi-start parallel gradient ascent procedure can substantially improve reliability and performance. With these innovations, our SBI-based BOED methods are able to match or outperform by up to 22% existing state-of-the-art approaches across standard BOED benchmarks.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Distributed Neural Representation for Reactive In Situ Visualization
Implicit neural representations (INRs) have emerged as a powerful tool for compressing large-scale volume data. This opens up new possibilities for in situ visualization. However, the efficient application of INRs to distributed data remains an underexplored area. Here, in this work, we develop a distributed volumetric neural representation and optimize it for in situ visualization. Our technique eliminates data exchanges between processes, achieving state-of-the-art compression speed, quality and ratios. Our technique also enables the implementation of an efficient strategy for caching large-scale simulation data in high temporal frequencies, further facilitating the use of reactive in situ visualization in a wider range of scientific problems. We integrate this system with the Ascent infrastructure and evaluate its performance and usability using real-world simulations.
Wu, Qi↗
The ultralow viscosity of volatile-rich kimberlite magma: Implications for the water content of primitive kimberlite melts
The eruption of deeply sourced kimberlite magma offers the fastest route to bring deep-seated volatiles back to the Earth’s surface. However, the viscosity of kimberlite magma, a factor governing its migration and eruption dynamics within Earth, remains poorly constrained. We conducted synchrotron in situ falling sphere viscometry experiments to examine kimberlite magma with different volatile contents (0 to 5 wt % H 2 O and 2 to 8 wt % CO 2 ) under high pressure-temperature conditions. The results reveal that the viscosity of volatile-rich kimberlite magma is ~1 to 2 orders lower than that of mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) and comparable to the ultramobile pure carbonate melt. Using the measured viscosity values, we simulated the ascent and eruption process of kimberlite magma. We found that a minimum content of ~0.5 wt % water in the primitive magma is necessary to allow the ultrafast eruption process of kimberlite, thereby enabling the preservation of diamonds and high-pressure mineral inclusions transported by the magma.
58 GEOSCIENCES↗