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NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Exploring the Capabilities of a Machine Learning Algorithm to Detect Space Weather-Significant Emerging Active Regions

Active regions are a source of various phenomena responsible for Space Weather disturbances; therefore, developing a technology for early warning about upcoming magnetic activity is crucial to mitigate its impact. However, observational limitations and the high nonlinearity of processes associated with the accumulation of magnetic flux and its interaction with the surrounding plasma during the emergence through the convection zone make early activity detection a challenging problem. To address these challenges, we developed a physics-driven machine learning model that allows us to detect active regions (ARs) before they become visible on the solar surface by analyzing the power spectra of acoustic oscillations observed by the SDO/HMI instrument. This study is based on a time series of Doppler shift maps of 31x31-degree areas tracked with the Carrington rotation rate for four days before and after the emergence. The Doppler shift time series are processed into the oscillation power maps for four frequency ranges and accompanied by line-of-sight magnetograms and the continuum intensity maps from SDO/HMI. The resulting data are converted into a 1D time series representing the mean temporal variations of these quantities. The redacted time series are used as input to predict AR emergence using the Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) method. The training of the LSTM model is based on 40 ARs, which includes an independent analysis for each sub region that exhibits AR emergence or remains quiet. The emergence of magnetic flux (defined as a decrease of the continuum intensity) was detected with the developed LSTM algorithm from 5 to 48 hours before the reported time by NOAA. The developed model is capable of pointing to the time and location of active region formation. In this presentation, we discuss reasons that impact how early in advance the model can identify the upcoming activity and the possibility of improving the current predictive skills and steps to transition to the operational forecast.

Heliophysics↗
NASA NTRS1990

Elementary bipoles of active regions and ephemeral active regions

The general properties of elementary bipoles (EBs), the class of moving magnetic features identified by Frazier (1972) as building blocks of new solar active regions, are described, and variations in their characteristics are illustrated with extensive videomagnetograms obtained at Big Bear Solar Observatory during 1984-1989. Consideration is given to ephemeral active regions consisting of EBs with only one positive and one negative pole, multiple-pole ephemeral regions, reversed-polarity EBs, interactions among EBs and adjacent magnetic features, and the EBs of small and medium active regions. The detection of EBs prior to the appearance of arch filaments confirms the relationship found by Frazier.

Martin, Sara F.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The morphology of flare phenomena, magnetic fields, and electric currents in active regions. II - NOAA active region 5747 (1989 October)

The paper describes October 1989 observations in NOAA Active Region 5747 of the morphology of energetic electron precipitation and high-pressure coronal flare plasmas of three flares and their relation to the vector magnetic field and vertical electric currents. The H-alpha spectroheliograms were coaligned with the vector magnetograms using continuum images of sunspots, enabling positional accuracy of a few arcsec. It was found that, during the gradual phase, the regions of the H-alpha flare that show the effects of enhanced pressure in the overlying corona often encompass extrema of the vertical current density, consistent with earlier work showing a close relationship between H-alpha emission and line-of-sight currents. The data are also consistent with the overall morphology and evolution described by erupting-filament models such as those of Kopp and Pneuman (1976) and Sturrock (1989).

Leka, K. D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The morphology of flare phenomena, magnetic fields, and electric currents in active regions. III - NOAA active region 6233 (1990 August)

We investigate the spatial relationship between vertical electric currents and flare phenomena in NOAA Active Region 6233, which was observed 1990, August 28-31 at Mees Solar Observatory. The two flares studied are the 1N/M1.8 flare on August 28, 22:30 UT and the 1N/M1.6 flare on August 29, 20:35 UT. Using Stokes polarimetry we make magnetograms of the region and compute the vertical current density. Using H-alpha imaging spectroscopy we identify sites of intense nonthermal electron precipitation or of high coronal pressure. The precipitation in these flares is barely strong enough to be detectable. We find that both precipitation and high pressure tend to occur near vertical currents, but that neither phenomenon is cospatial with current maxima. In contrast with the conclusion of other authors, we argue that these observations do not support a current-interruption model for flares, unless the relevant currents are primarily horizontal. The magnetic morphology and temporal evolution of these flares suggest that an erupting filament model may be relevant, but this model does not explicitly predict the relationship between precipitation, high pressure, and vertical currents.

De La Beaujardiere, J.-F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Main Sequence of Explosive Solar Active Regions: Comparison of Emerging and Mature Active Regions

For mature active regions, an active region s magnetic flux content determines the maximum free energy the active region can have. Most Large flares and CMEs occur in active regions that are near their free-energy limit. Active-region flare power radiated in the GOES 1-8 band increases steeply as the free-energy limit is approached. We infer that the free-energy limit is set by the rate of release of an active region s free magnetic energy by flares, CMEs and coronal heating balancing the maximum rate the Sun can put free energy into the active region s magnetic field. This balance of maximum power results in explosive active regions residing in a "mainsequence" in active-region (flux content, free energy content) phase space, which sequence is analogous to the main sequence of hydrogen-burning stars in (mass, luminosity) phase space.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS1983

Fluid motions in the solar chromosphere-corona transition region. III - Active region flows from wide slit Dopplergrams

Large-scale velocity patterns observed in C IV in active regions show close correspondence with photospheric magnetic field patterns. In a large majority of cases, magnetic neutral lines show blueshift on their sun center side and redshift on their limbward side. The large-scale flow is consistent with widespread loop structure having downflow in both legs of the loops. Studies of individual bright loops, confirm that the flow is downward in most cases. However, an important subset of loops show flow from one end of the loop to the other.

Athay, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Nanoflare Properties throughout Active Regions: Comparing SDO/AIA Observations with Modeled Active Region Light Curves

Coronal plasma in active regions is typically measured to be at temperatures near ~1-3 MK. Is the majority of the coronal plasma in hydrostatic equilibrium, maintained at these temperatures through a form of quasi-steady heating, or is this simply a measure of the average temperature of widely varying, impulsively heated coronal plasma? Addressing this question is complicated by the fact that the corona is optically thin: many thousands of flux tubes which are heated completely independently are contributing to the total emission along a given line of sight. There is a large body of work focused on the heating of isolated features - coronal loops - which are impulsively heated, however it is the diffuse emission between loops which often comprises the majority of active region emission. Therefore in this study we move beyond isolated features and analyze all of the emission in an entire active region from all contributing flux tubes. We investigate light curves systematically using SDO/AIA observations. We also model the active region corona as a line-of-sight integration of many thousands of completely independently heated flux tubes. The emission from these flux tubes may be time dependent, quasi-steady, or a mix of both, depending on the cadence of heat release. We demonstrate that despite the superposition of randomly heated flux tubes, different distributions of nanoflare cadences produce distinct signatures in light curves observed with multi-wavelength and high time cadence data, such as those from SDO/AIA. We conclude that the majority of the active region plasma is not maintained in hydrostatic equilibrium, rather it is undergoing dynamic heating and cooling cycles. The observed emission is consistent with heating through impulsive nanoflares, whose energy is a function of location within the active region.

Viall, Nicholeen↗
NASA NTRS2009

Suppression of Active-Region CME Production by the Presence of Other Active Regions

From the SOHO mission s data base of MDI full-disk magnetograms spanning solar cycle 23, we have obtained a set of ~40,000 magnetograms of ~1,300 active regions, tracking each active region across the 30 degree central solar disk. Each active region magnetogram is cropped from the full-disk magnetogram by an automated code. The cadence is 96 minutes. From each active-region magnetogram, we have measured two whole-active-region magnetic quantities: (1) the magnetic size of the active region (the active region s total magnetic flux), and (2) a gauge of the active region s free magnetic energy (part of the free energy is released in the production of a flare and/or CME eruption). From NOAA Flare/CME catalogs, we have obtained the event (Flare/CME/SEP event) production history of each active region. Using all these data, we find that for each type of eruptive event, an active region s expected rate of event production increases as a power law of our gauge of active-region free magnetic energy. We have also found that, among active regions having nearly the same free energy, the rate of the CME production is less when there are many other active regions on the disk than when there are few or none, but there is no significant discernible suppression of the rate of flare production. This indicates that the presence of other active regions somehow tends to inhibit an active region s flare-producing magnetic explosions from becoming CMEs, contrary to the expectation from the breakout model for the production of CMEs.

Falconer, David↗
NASA NTRS1995

Comparisons between theory and observation of active region tilts

Active regions in the Sun are generally tilted relative to the azimuthal direction, with the leading side being closer to the equator than the following side. This tilts is known to increase with latitude. Recently, theoretical calculations of the dynamics of emerging, initially toroidal active-region flux tubes have been done, showing that the observed tilts can be explained by the Coriolis force acting on a diverging flow field in emerging flux loops. The calculations of Fan, Fisher, & McClymont predict that alpha proportional to Phi(exp 1/4) B(sub 0 exp -5/4) sin theta, where alpha is the tilt angle of the active region, B(sub 0) is the magnetic field strength of the active-region flux tube near the base of the convection zone, and phi is the amount of magnetic flux in the tube. We compare these theoretical predictions with the behavior of a sample of 24,701 sunspot groups observed at Mount Wilson over a period of 68 yr, using the polarity separation distance d as a proxy for phi. Our major findings are given.

Fisher, G. H.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Active region seismology

Active region seismology is concerned with the determination and interpretation of the interaction of the solar acoustic oscillations with near-surface target structures, such as magnetic flux concentration, sunspots, and plage. Recent observations made with a high spatial resolution and a long temporal duration enabled measurements of the scattering matrix for sunspots and solar active regions to be carried out as a function of the mode properties. Based on this information, the amount of p-mode absorption, partial-wave phase shift, and mode mixing introduced by the sunspot, could be determined. In addition, the possibility of detecting the presence of completely submerged magnetic fields was raised, and new procedures for performing acoustic holography of the solar interior are being developed. The accumulating evidence points to the mode conversion of p-modes to various magneto-atmospheric waves within the magnetic flux concentration as being the unifying physical mechanism responsible for these diverse phenomena.

Bogdan, Tom↗
NASA NTRS2009

The Maximum Free Magnetic Energy Allowed in a Solar Active Region

Two whole-active-region magnetic quantities that can be measured from a line-of-sight magnetogram are (sup L) WL(sub SG), a gauge of the total free energy in an active region's magnetic field, and sup L(sub theta), a measure of the active region's total magnetic flux. From these two quantities measured from 1865 SOHO/MDI magnetograms that tracked 44 sunspot active regions across the 0.5 R(sub Sun) central disk, together with each active region's observed production of CMEs, X flares, and M flares, Falconer et al (2009, ApJ, submitted) found that (1) active regions have a maximum attainable free magnetic energy that increases with the magnetic size (sup L) (sub theta) of the active region, (2) in (Log (sup L)WL(sub SG), Log(sup L) theta) space, CME/flare-productive active regions are concentrated in a straight-line main sequence along which the free magnetic energy is near its upper limit, and (3) X and M flares are restricted to large active regions. Here, from (a) these results, (b) the observation that even the greatest X flares produce at most only subtle changes in active region magnetograms, and (c) measurements from MSFC vector magnetograms and from MDI line-of-sight magnetograms showing that practically all sunspot active regions have nearly the same area-averaged magnetic field strength: =- theta/A approximately equal to 300 G, where theta is the active region's total photospheric flux of field stronger than 100 G and A is the area of that flux, we infer that (1) the maximum allowed ratio of an active region's free magnetic energy to its potential-field energy is ~1, and (2) any one CME/flare eruption releases no more than a small fraction (less than ~10%) of the active region's free magnetic energy. This work was funded by NASA's Heliophysics Division and NSF's Division of Atmospheric Sciences.

Moore, Ronald L.↗
NASA NTRS1970

Radio spectrum of two active regions

Solar active region radio spectrum during 12 November 1966 eclipse, discussing flux, magnetic field effects, temperature and electron density

Drago, F. C.↗
NASA NTRS1980

Variations in the solar constant due to solar active regions

Solar activity is expected to affect the solar constant at some level. Recent observations and data analysis show the amount of variation to be expected for active regions, faculae, and sunspots on the apparent solar brightness. It is concluded that the maximum effect is about 20 times greater for sunspots than for faculae per unit area. Because facular areas are 25-30 times those for sunspots, the effect on the solar constant of faculae and sunspots is approximately equal and opposite, being typically in the neighborhood of 40-100 parts per million (ppm), but on occasion able to reach over 200 ppm. The issue of energy balance is not discussed here, for it requires further data analysis as well as information on the facular and sunspot limb darkening.

Chapman, G. A.↗
NASA NTRS1982

Doppler wavelength shifts of ultraviolet spectral lines in solar active regions

Doppler shifts are measured for solar UV emission lines formed in the lower transition region of active regions. Doppler shifts in different regions at the same solar location, variations of Doppler shift with position of an active region on the disk, and variations of Doppler shift with time at the same solar location in the same active region were studied. Observations were made with the NRL slit spectrograph on Skylab. Excluding flare and flare-related phenomena, only redshifts are found whose magnitudes correspond to downflow velocities between about 4 and 17 km/s. Shifts are largest for lines formed between about 50,000 and 100,000 K, and are distinctly less for lines formed above 100,000 K. The shifts persist out to the limb, but not above it. There is no obvious change in redshift for lines measured at the same solar location over time intervals of about 20 minutes.

Feldman, U.↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Limit of Free Magnetic Energy in Active Regions

By measuring from active-region magnetograms a proxy of the free energy in the active region fs magnetic field, it has been found previously that (1) there is an abrupt upper limit to the free energy the field can hold that increases with the amount of magnetic field in the active region, the active region fs magnetic flux content, and (2) the free energy is usually near its limit when the field explodes in a CME/flare eruption. That is, explosive active regions are concentrated in a main-sequence path bordering the free-energy ]limit line in (flux content, free-energy proxy) phase space. Here, from measurement of Marshall Space Flight Center vector magnetograms, we find the magnetic condition that underlies the free ]energy limit and the accompanying main sequence of explosive active regions. Using a suitable free ]energy proxy measured from vector magnetograms of 44 active regions, we find that (1) in active regions at and near their free ]energy limit, the ratio of magnetic-shear free energy to the non ]free magnetic energy the potential field would have is approximately 1 in the core field, the field rooted along the neutral line, and (2) this ratio is progressively less in active regions progressively farther below their free ]energy limit. This shows that most active regions in which this core-field energy ratio is much less than 1 cannot be triggered to explode; as this ratio approaches 1, most active regions become capable of exploding; and when this ratio is 1 or greater, most active regions are compelled to explode. From these results we surmise the magnetic condition that determines the free ]energy limit is the ratio of the free magnetic energy to the non-free energy the active region fs field would have were it completely relaxed to its potential ]field configuration, and that this ratio is approximately 1 at the free-energy limit and in the main sequence of explosive active regions.

Moore, Ron↗