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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Evolution of Intent and Social Influence Networks and Their Significance in Detecting COVID-19 Disinformation Actors on Social Media

Online disinformation actors are those individuals or bots who disseminate false or misleading information over social media, with the intent to sway public opinion in the information domain towards harmful social outcomes. Quantification of the degree to which users post or respond intentionally versus under social influence, remains a challenge, as individuals or organizations operating the profile are foreshadowed by their online persona. However, social influence has been shown to be measurable in the paradigm of information theory. In this paper, we introduce an information theoretic measure to quantify social media user intent, and then investigate the corroboration of intent with evolution of the social network and detection of disinformation actors related to COVID-19 discussions on Twitter. Our measurement of user intent utilizes an existing time series analysis technique for estimation of social influence using transfer entropy among the considered users. We have analyzed 4.7 million tweets originating from several countries of interest, during a 5 month period when the arrival of the first dose of COVID vaccinations were announced. Our key findings include evidence that: (i) a significant correspondence between intent and social influence; (ii) ranking over users by intent and social influence is unstable over time with evidence of shifts in the hierarchical structure; and (iii) both user intent and social influence are important when distinguishing disinformation actors from non-disinformation actors.

Gunaratne, Chathika↗
DOE OSTI2018

A Framework for Assessing Alternate Proliferation Pathways In The Age Of Non-State Actors

While the nonproliferation community has long acknowledged the possibility of nuclear terrorism, its prevention has become a central focus area in recent years. For decades it has been assumed that, with access to special nuclear material (SNM), the steps to indigenously develop an improvised nuclear device are within the reach of non-state actors. At the same time, indigenous development of the SNM itself has generally been dismissed as it is perceived as an infeasible option. Recognizing how recent trends of technology democratization, the open exchange of information, and globalization have eroded certain barriers to proliferation by non-state actors, this research explores whether indigenous development of SNM is feasible given the current capabilities of non-state actors. In addition, methods were developed to screen which approaches should be further investigated to devise and enact general and non-state actor specific countermeasures.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Incorporating the Role(s) of Human Actors in Complex System Design for Safety and Security

Traditional systems engineering demonstrates the importance of customer needs in scoping and defining design requirements; yet, in practice, other human stakeholders are often absent from early lifecycle phases. Human factors are often omitted in practice when evaluating and down-selecting design options due to constraints such as time, money, access to user populations, or difficulty in proving system robustness through the inclusion of human behaviors. Advances in systems engineering increasingly include non-technical influences into the design, deployment, operations, and maintenance of interacting components to achieve common performance objectives. Furthermore, such advances highlight the need to better account for the various roles of human actors to achieve desired performance outcomes in complex systems. Many of these efforts seek to infuse lessons and concepts from human factors (enhanced decision-making through Crew Resource Management), systems safety (Rasmussen's “drift toward danger”) and organization science (Giddens' recurrent human acts leading to emergent behaviors) into systems engineering to better understand how socio-technical interactions impact emergent system performance. Safety and security are examples of complex system performance outcomes that are directly impacted by varying roles of human actors. Using security performance of high consequence facilities as a representative use case, this article will outline the System Context Lenses to understand how to include various roles of human actors into systems engineering design. Several exemplar applications of this organizing lenses will be summarized and used to highlight more generalized insights for the broader systems engineering community.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2019

A UPC++ Actor Library and Its Evaluation On a Shallow Water Proxy Application

Programmability is one of the key challenges of Exascale Computing. Using the actor model for distributed computations may be one solution. The actor model separates computation from communication while still enabling their overlap. Each actor possesses specified communication endpoints to publish and receive information. Computations are undertaken based on the data available on these channels. We present a library that implements this programming model using UPC++, a PGAS library, and evaluate three different parallelization strategies, one based on rank-sequential execution, one based on multiple threads in a rank, and one based on OpenMP tasks. In an evaluation of our library using shallow water proxy applications, our solution compares favorably against an earlier implementation based on X10, and a BSP-based approach.

Pöppl, Alexander↗
DOE OSTI2021

Of Actors, Cities and Energy Systems: Advancing the Transformative Potential of Urban Electrification

The electrification of transportation and the integration of electric vehicles (EVs) with buildings connected to clean grids has been touted as one of the key solutions to the global decarbonization challenge. Cities are on the frontlines of current and future electrification, as they depend on and drive electricity generation, distribution, and use. City actors also occupy a central role in the actions to enable electrification to support energy transitions in efficient, equitable, environmentally sound, and resilient ways. Currently, however, research and development on the interactions between actors, cities and energy systems is predominantly conducted in disciplinary siloes. This topical review analyzes the transformational potential of urban electrification. It focuses on efforts to electrify transportation and integrate EVs with buildings connected to a clean grid. We find that actions in these area are driving change; they are adopted by wealthier populations and on an experimental basis by specific communities. Their larger-scale growth is constrained by institutional, behavioral, and infrastructural factors. We also find that existing siloed disciplinary approaches are often incompatible with advancing holistic research. To achieve that, divergent communities of scholars need to come together to integrate their research and create broader perspectives. Through incorporation of the social sciences, these perspectives need to consider the societal limits and potentials brought to bear by human behavior and decision making. Only then can urban electrification be understood as the empirically rich and socially complex topic that it is. And only with this understanding will innovations and smart policy actions be able to tap into the transformational potential of urban electrification.

cities↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario Storyline Discovery for Planning in Multi‐Actor Human‐Natural Systems Confronting Change

Scenarios have emerged as valuable tools in managing complex human-natural systems, but the traditional approach of limiting focus on a small number of predetermined scenarios can inadvertently miss consequential dynamics, extremes, and diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by exploring a wide range of possible futures and identifying those that yield consequential vulnerabilities. However, vulnerabilities are typically identified based on aggregate robustness measures that do not take full advantage of the richness of the underlying dynamics in the large ensembles of model simulations and can make it hard to identify key dynamics and/or storylines that can guide planning or further analyses. This study introduces the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced “forensic”): a scenario discovery framework that addresses these challenges by organizing and investigating consequential scenarios using hierarchical classification of diverse outcomes across actors, sectors, and scales, while also aiding in the selection of scenario storylines, based on system dynamics that drive consequential outcomes. We present an application of this framework to the Upper Colorado River Basin, focusing on decadal droughts and their water scarcity implications for the basin's diverse users and its obligations to downstream states through Lake Powell. We show how FRNSIC can explore alternative sets of impact metrics and drought dynamics and use them to identify drought scenario storylines, that can be used to inform future adaptation planning.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Power System Frequency Dynamics Modeling, State Estimation, and Control using Neural Ordinary Differential Equations (NODEs) and Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) Machine Learning Approaches

With the global energy transition of the electric power system, grid control, supervision, and protection is becoming more challenging. With the increasing integration of renewable energy sources (RES), the system dynamics are changing, causing traditional power system dynamic modeling with swing equation-based modeling approaches to fail. Additionally, the converter-dominated power grid is decreasing the system inertia, making the power system more fragile to the frequency swings. This paper first investigates and compares the application of a model-based Kalman filter state estimation approach with (i) a model-free machine learning approach --- neural ordinary differential equations (NODEs) --- and (ii) a data-driven system identification (SysId) approach to model and infer critical state values of the power system frequency dynamics. Then a model predictive control (MPC) framework is compared to a model-free Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) reinforcement learning (RL) control algorithm in providing efficient fast frequency response (FFR) to the power system frequency dynamics. The approaches are compared in terms of their performance goals as well as their per-timestep computational efficiency. Furthermore, the comparative study for state estimation shows that for the model-free requirement, both NODEs and SysId can provide accurate state estimates; however, with increasing model complexity, NODEs can be a better choice for model identification. Similarly, the results from the FFR comparative study show that the SAC RL-based FFR, once trained, outperforms MPC with better control signals and faster computation time, making the SAC RL-based FFR better option for providing FFR to the power system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Soft Actor Critic Based Volt-VAR Co-optimization in Active Distribution Grids

Modern distribution networks are undergoing several technical challenges, such as voltage fluctuations, because of high penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). This paper proposes a deep reinforcement learning (DRL)-based Volt VAR co-optimization technique for reducing voltage fluctuations as well as power loss under high penetration of DERs. In addition, the proposed approach minimizes the operational cost of the grid. A stochastic policy optimization based soft actor critic (SAC) agent is proposed to configure the optimal set-points of the reactive power outputs of the inverters. The performance of the proposed model is verified on the modified IEEE 34- and 123-bus systems and compared with a base case scenario with no reactive supply by inverters, and a local droop control approach. The results demonstrate that the proposed framework outperforms the conventional droop control method in improving the voltage profile, minimizing the network power loss, and reducing grid operational cost.

—Distribution grids, deep reinforcement learning, ↗
DOE OSTI2018

Different Behaviors of a Substrate in P450 Decarboxylase and Hydroxylase Reveal Reactivity-Enabling Actors

Biological routes to the production of fuels from renewable feedstocks hold significant promise in our efforts towards a sustainable future. The fatty acid decarboxylase enzyme (OleT JE ) is a cytochrome P450 enzyme that converts long and medium chain fatty acids to terminal alkenes and shares significant similarities in terms of structure, substrate scope and mechanism with the hydroxylase cytochrome P450 (P450 BSβ ). Recent reports have demonstrated that catalytic pathways in these enzymes bifurcate when the heme is in its iron-hydroxo (compound II) state. In spite of significant similarities, the fundamental underpinnings of their different characteristic wild-type reactivities remain ambiguous. In this work, we develop point charges, modified parameters and report molecular simulations of this crucial intermediate step. Water occupancies and substrate mobility at the active site are observed to be vital differentiating aspects between the two enzymes in the compound II state and corroborate recent experimental hypotheses. Apart from increased substrate mobility in the hydroxylase, which could have implications for enabling the rebound mechanism for hydroxylation, OleT JE is characterized by much stronger binding of the substrate carboxylate group to the active site arginine, implicating it as an important enabling actor for decarboxylation.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Variational actor-critic algorithms,

We introduce a class of variational actor-critic algorithms based on a variational formulation over both the value function and the policy. The objective function of the variational formulation consists of two parts: one for maximizing the value function and the other for minimizing the Bellman residual. Besides the vanilla gradient descent with both the value function and the policy updates, we propose two variants, the clipping method and the flipping method, in order to speed up the convergence. We also prove that, when the prefactor of the Bellman residual is sufficiently large, the fixed point of the algorithm is close to the optimal policy.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Actor API

This package provides a secure transport layer connecting mini-applications run as components of a server infrastructure. The guiding principle is that mini-apps should be "actors" -- able to expose a set of API calls to the network and to have a shared trust model for knowing who is calling which API function and who takes responsibility for the result.

Rogers, DavidM. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), O↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data for Hadjimichael et al. - Multi-actor, multi-impact scenario discovery

Naming convention for each file is S[scenario_id]_[realization_id].parquet All realizations are generated as per the accompanying paper: Hadjimichael, A., Reed, P.M., Quinn, J.D, Vernon, C.R., Thurber, T., Multi-actor, multi-impact scenario discovery of consequential narrative storylines for human-natural systems planning. Earth's Future (In Review) Each .parquet file contains the following columns: 'structure_id' : StateMod structure ID data corresponds to 'year': simulation year 'month': simulation month 'demand': water demand in acre-feet 'shortage': water shortage in acre-feet 'river_outflow': streamflow in diversion location in acre-feet 'control_location': other structure or reason for shortage

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗
DOE OSTI2023

Advancing uncertainty characterization for understanding projected water scarcity in multi-sector, multi-actor river basins across scales.

Invited Talk at AGU Fall Meeting 2023 Modeling how human institutions and infrastructure interact with the water cycle is essential to better understand the vulnerability, and resilience of water resources systems from the local to the global scale. This is especially true when investigating multi-sector, multi-actor responses to the effects of long-term changes and short-term shocks. It is also well recognized that uncertainty present throughout the modeling cycle (e.g., in data, functional relations, and model coupling approaches) limits our ability to trace the interactive dynamics of human-water systems, as well as to quantify their implications for management and planning. Systems with large numbers of diverse stakeholders further compound this challenge, as uncertain drivers and complex dynamics might have very disparate effects on water users. The work presented is conducted through the Integrated Multisector Multiscale Modeling (IM3) Science Focus Area, which explores how human and natural systems co-evolve in response to change. Through this multi-year effort, we have developed exploratory modeling methods to better characterize how the uncertain human and natural drivers of water scarcity yield consequential vulnerabilities in institutionally complex, multi-sectoral systems. This talk will specifically present on a series of uncertainty characterization experiments performed in the Upper Colorado River Basin, a sub-basin of the Colorado with thousands of water users. These complementary and systematic experiments are aimed at understanding: How are various uncertain stressors (e.g., climate change, demand growth) affecting the diverse water users of this basin in terms of water shortage? What are the key drivers of this shortage for each user? Methods and results from this work are used to address additional questions on the ability of adaptation to modulate the effects of these uncertain drivers, and on their compounding effects across spatial scales and through sectoral interactions.

Hadjimichael, Antonia↗
DOE OSTI2024

Scenario storyline discovery for complex multi-actor human-natural systems

This poster was presented at the AGU Fall Meeting 2024. Abstract:Scenario analysis is a useful tool for assessing the impacts of future conditions or alternative strategies. However, the common practice of focusing on a small number of predetermined scenarios can limit our understanding of key uncertainties, and fail to represent diverse stakeholder impacts. Exploratory modeling approaches have been developed to address these issues by simulating a wide range of possible futures and system perspectives. A challenge with these approaches is that they often involve large ensemble experiments which limit interpretability and usability. We recently introduced the FRamework for Narrative Storylines and Impact Classification (FRNSIC; pronounced ``forensic''), a scenario discovery framework that helps users identify scenario storylines that capture key system dynamics and as well as important outcomes. In this poster presentation, we present training materials to support the generalizable application of the framework to other multi-actor systems with complex dynamics. Specifically, we will present a step-by-step methodological typology of tools and methods that can be used to generate and classify plausible states of the world on key metrics and consequential dynamics. The typology will also discuss potential implications of these choices and their applicability to different systems.

Colorado River↗
DOE OSTI2024

Can Wholesale Electricity Markets Achieve Resource Adequacy and High Clean Energy Generation Targets in the Presence of Self-Interested Actors?

Wholesale electricity markets are intended to incentivize system generation investments and operations outcomes that meet evolving system needs. In this work, we evaluate the effectiveness of wholesale market structures, rules and policies in achieving system resource adequacy (RA) and clean energy targets in the presence of self-interested generation investors using the Electricity Markets and Investment Suite Agent-based Simulation (EMIS-AS) model. Results highlight that both capacity markets and operating reserve demand curves (ORDCs) can help achieve a reliable system but with different RA compliance timelines and distribution of generation technologies. Structures with capacity markets tend to favor more capital-intensive peaking technologies while reducing wind and solar build-outs due to suppressed energy and clean energy market prices, particularly in the absence of strong clean energy targets. Conversely, ORDCs improve the commitment of available generation units, but this comes at the expense of higher system costs and renewable generation curtailment. We also find that well-calibrated static capacity demand curves can yield similar reliability and total cost compared to capacity market demand curves informed dynamically by resource adequacy while also yielding stable annual capacity prices. Different approaches to formulating ORDC curves can also yield key trade-offs, namely that a more efficient treatment of storage chronology results in lower ORDC curves and prices, yielding less investment and cost but at the expense of reliability. Finally, the effectiveness of wholesale electricity markets in practically achieving very high clean energy generation targets highly depends on the cost-competitiveness of clean energy technologies that can support critical balancing needs across multiple timescales.

capacity expansion↗
DOE OSTI2022

MARS: Malleable Actor-Critic Reinforcement Learning Scheduler

In this paper, we introduce MARS, a new scheduling system for HPC-cloud infrastructures based on a cost-aware, flexible reinforcement learning approach, which serves as an intermediate layer for next generation HPC-cloud resource manager. MARS ensembles the pre-trained models from heuristic workloads and decides on the most cost-effective strategy for optimization. A whole workflow application would be split into several optimizable dependent sub-tasks, then based on the pre- defined resource management plan, a reward will be generated after executing a scheduled task. Lastly, MARS updates the Deep Neural Network (DNN) model based on the reward. MARS is designed to optimize the existing models through reinforcement mechanisms. MARS adapts to the dynamics of workflow applications, selects the most cost-effective scheduling solution among pre-built scheduling strategies (backfilling, SJF, etc.) and self- learning deep neural network model at run-time. We evaluate MARS with different real-world workflow traces. MARS can achieve 5%-60% increased performance compare to state-of-the- art approaches.

Baheri, Betis↗