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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2002

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

Bao, Han P.↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Detailed Vehicle Modeling & Simulation Study Quantifying Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Advanced Vehicle Technologies Through 2050

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: (1) Multiple powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); (2) Vehicle classes (compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and (3) Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of five years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (the year the technology is introduced into production).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1989

Weight and cost forecasting for advanced manned space vehicles

A mass and cost estimating computerized methology for predicting advanced manned space vehicle weights and costs was developed. The user friendly methology designated MERCER (Mass Estimating Relationship/Cost Estimating Relationship) organizes the predictive process according to major vehicle subsystem levels. Design, development, test, evaluation, and flight hardware cost forecasting is treated by the study. This methodology consists of a complete set of mass estimating relationships (MERs) which serve as the control components for the model and cost estimating relationships (CERs) which use MER output as input. To develop this model, numerous MER and CER studies were surveyed and modified where required. Additionally, relationships were regressed from raw data to accommodate the methology. The models and formulations which estimated the cost of historical vehicles to within 20 percent of the actual cost were selected. The result of the research, along with components of the MERCER Program, are reported. On the basis of the analysis, the following conclusions were established: (1) The cost of a spacecraft is best estimated by summing the cost of individual subsystems; (2) No one cost equation can be used for forecasting the cost of all spacecraft; (3) Spacecraft cost is highly correlated with its mass; (4) No study surveyed contained sufficient formulations to autonomously forecast the cost and weight of the entire advanced manned vehicle spacecraft program; (5) No user friendly program was found that linked MERs with CERs to produce spacecraft cost; and (6) The group accumulation weight estimation method (summing the estimated weights of the various subsystems) proved to be a useful method for finding total weight and cost of a spacecraft.

Williams, Raymond↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles

Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.

Whitfield, Jeff↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Consumption and Cost Reduction of Future Light-Duty Vehicles through Advanced Vehicle Technologies: A Modeling Simulation Study Through 2050

The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) aim to develop sustainable, affordable and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate vehicle-level fuel savings potential is critical for understanding DOE’s impact. In this work, we simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light duty vehicles. The simulations were performed across: Multiple powertrain configurations (i.e., conventional, power-split, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles), Vehicle classes (i.e., compact car, midsize car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], midsize SUV, and pickup trucks); and Fuels (i.e., gasoline, diesel, hydrogen, and battery electricity). These various technologies are assessed for six different timeframes: laboratory years 2015, 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. A delay of 5 years is assumed between laboratory year and model year (year technology is introduced into production). Finally, uncertainties are included for both technology performance and cost aspects by considering two cases: Low case, aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on regulations, business as usual; and High case, aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on R&D targets developed through support by VTO & HFTO. These scenarios are not intended as predictions of future performances. The energy and cost impact of different technologies were estimated using Autonomie (www.autonomie.net), Argonne vehicle system simulation tool. Autonomie is a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool used to assess the energy consumption, performance and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies across classes (from light to heavy duty), powertrains (from conventional to HEVs, FCEVs, PHEVs and BEVs), components and control strategies. Autonomie is packaged with a complete set of vehicle models for a wide range of vehicle classes, powertrain configurations and component technologies, including vehicle level and component level controls. These controls were developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies including analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrains components for different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route based vehicle energy control and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions and estimates the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs for the various types of light duty vehicles. All details of vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Future Cost Benefits Analysis for Electrified Vehicles from Advances Due to U.S. Department of Energy Targets

The U.S. Department of Energy’s Vehicle Technologies Office (DOE-VTO) supports research and development (R&D), as well as deployment of efficient and sustainable transportation technologies, that will improve energy efficiency and fuel economy and enable America to use less petroleum. To accelerate the creation and adoption of new technologies, DOE-VTO has developed specific targets for a wide range of powertrain technologies (e.g., engine, battery, electric machine, lightweighting, etc.). This paper quantifies the impact of VTO R&D on vehicle energy consumption and cost compared to expected historical improvements across vehicle classes, powertrains, component technologies and timeframes. We have implemented a large scale simulation process to develop and simulate tens of thousands of vehicles on U.S. standard driving cycles using Autonomie, a vehicle simulation tool developed by Argonne National Laboratory. Results demonstrate significant additional reductions in both cost and energy consumption due to the existence of VTO R&D targets compared to predicted historical trends. It is observed that, over time, the fuel consumption of different electrified vehicles is expected to decrease by 40–50% and a reduction of 45–55% for vehicle manufacturing costs owing to significant improvements through various VTO R&D targets.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
NASA NTRS2002

Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to highlight their inappropriateness for what is really needed at the conceptual phase of the design process. The First-Order Process Velocity Cost Model (FOPV) is discussed at length in the next section. This is followed by an application of the FOPV cost model to a generic wing. For designs that have no precedence as far as acquisition costs are concerned, cost data derived from the FOPV cost model may not be accurate enough because of new requirements for shape complexity, material, equipment and precision/tolerance. The concept of Cost Modulus is introduced at this point to compensate for these new burdens on the basic processes. This is treated in section 5. The cost of a design must be conveniently linked to its CAD representation. The interfacing of CAD models and spreadsheets containing the cost equations is the subject of the next section, section 6. The last section of the report is a summary of the progress made so far, and the anticipated research work to be achieved in the future.

Bao, Han P.↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential

Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS1995

Advanced transportation system studies technical area 2 (TA-2): Heavy lift launch vehicle development: Program Cost estimates - volume 3

The purpose of the TA-2 contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. The basic period of performance of the TA-2 contract was from May 1992 through May 1993. No-cost extensions were exercised on the contract from June 1993 through July 1995. This document is part of the final report for the TA-2 contract. The final report consists of three volumes: Volume 1 is the Executive Summary, Volume 2 is Technical Results, and Volume 3 is Program Cost Estimates. The document-at-hand, Volume 3, provides a work breakdown structure dictionary, user's guide for the parametric life cycle cost estimation tool, and final report developed by ECON, Inc., under subcontract to Lockheed Martin on TA-2 for the analysis of heavy lift launch vehicle concepts.

McCurry, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Propulsion options for space-based orbital transfer vehicles

A concept for a lightweight space-based orbital transfer vehicle (OTV) featuring thin, spherical, pressure-designed aluminum liquid-oxygen and liquid-hydrogen tanks and a truss structure of composite materials is used as a baseline design for a large-cargo OTV. Vehicle sizing, fleet analysis, and parametric cost analysis are used to evaluate the effects of engine technology, vehicle staging, and high-thrust versus low-thrust transfer. Results indicate that Earth-to-orbit launch costs and OTV engine performance are strong drivers in orbital transportation cost and that there is no significant benefit in staging vehicles. At the low values of Earth-to-orbit cost representative of advanced launch vehicles, low-thrust and high-thrust OTV's are competitive.

Rehder, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Use of Soft Computing Technologies for a Qualitative and Reliable Engine Control System for Propulsion Systems

The problem to be addressed in this paper is to explore how the use of Soft Computing Technologies (SCT) could be employed to improve overall vehicle system safety, reliability, and rocket engine performance by development of a qualitative and reliable engine control system (QRECS). Specifically, this will be addressed by enhancing rocket engine control using SCT, innovative data mining tools, and sound software engineering practices used in Marshall's Flight Software Group (FSG). The principle goals for addressing the issue of quality are to improve software management, software development time, software maintenance, processor execution, fault tolerance and mitigation, and nonlinear control in power level transitions. The intent is not to discuss any shortcomings of existing engine control methodologies, but to provide alternative design choices for control, implementation, performance, and sustaining engineering, all relative to addressing the issue of reliability. The approaches outlined in this paper will require knowledge in the fields of rocket engine propulsion (system level), software engineering for embedded flight software systems, and soft computing technologies (i.e., neural networks, fuzzy logic, data mining, and Bayesian belief networks); some of which are briefed in this paper. For this effort, the targeted demonstration rocket engine testbed is the MC-1 engine (formerly FASTRAC) which is simulated with hardware and software in the Marshall Avionics & Software Testbed (MAST) laboratory that currently resides at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, building 4476, and is managed by the Avionics Department. A brief plan of action for design, development, implementation, and testing a Phase One effort for QRECS is given, along with expected results. Phase One will focus on development of a Smart Start Engine Module and a Mainstage Engine Module for proper engine start and mainstage engine operations. The overall intent is to demonstrate that by employing soft computing technologies, the quality and reliability of the overall scheme to engine controller development is further improved and vehicle safety is further insured. The final product that this paper proposes is an approach to development of an alternative low cost engine controller that would be capable of performing in unique vision spacecraft vehicles requiring low cost advanced avionics architectures for autonomous operations from engine pre-start to engine shutdown.

Trevino, Luis↗
NASA NTRS1996

Improving Conceptual Design for Launch Vehicles

This report summarizes activities performed during the second year of a three year cooperative agreement between NASA - Langley Research Center and Georgia Tech. Year 1 of the project resulted in the creation of a new Cost and Business Assessment Model (CABAM) for estimating the economic performance of advanced reusable launch vehicles including non-recurring costs, recurring costs, and revenue. The current year (second year) activities were focused on the evaluation of automated, collaborative design frameworks (computation architectures or computational frameworks) for automating the design process in advanced space vehicle design. Consistent with NASA's new thrust area in developing and understanding Intelligent Synthesis Environments (ISE), the goals of this year's research efforts were to develop and apply computer integration techniques and near-term computational frameworks for conducting advanced space vehicle design. NASA - Langley (VAB) has taken a lead role in developing a web-based computing architectures within which the designer can interact with disciplinary analysis tools through a flexible web interface. The advantages of this approach are, 1) flexible access to the designer interface through a simple web browser (e.g. Netscape Navigator), 2) ability to include existing 'legacy' codes, and 3) ability to include distributed analysis tools running on remote computers. To date, VAB's internal emphasis has been on developing this test system for the planetary entry mission under the joint Integrated Design System (IDS) program with NASA - Ames and JPL. Georgia Tech's complementary goals this year were to: 1) Examine an alternate 'custom' computational architecture for the three-discipline IDS planetary entry problem to assess the advantages and disadvantages relative to the web-based approach.and 2) Develop and examine a web-based interface and framework for a typical launch vehicle design problem.

John R. Olds↗
NASA NTRS1992

MINOTAUR (Maryland's innovative orbital technologically advanced University rocket)

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing interest in designing small commercial launch vehicles. Some of these designs include OSC's Pegasus, and AMROC's Aquila. Even though these vehicles are very different in their overall design characteristics, they all share a common thread of being expensive to design and manufacture. Each of these vehicles has an estimated production and operations cost of over $15000/kg of payload. In response to this high cost factor, the University of Maryland is developing a cost-effective alternative launch vehicle, Maryland's Innovative Orbital Technologically Advanced University Rocket (MINOTAUR). A preliminary cost analysis projects that MINOTAUR will cost under $10000/kg of payload. MINOTAUR will also serve as an enriching project devoted to an entirely student-designed-and-developed launch vehicle. This preliminary design of MINOTAUR was developed entirely by undergraduates in the University of Maryland's Space Vehicle Design class. At the start of the project, certain requirements and priorities were established as a basis from which to begin the design phase: (1) carry a 100 kg payload into a 200 km circular orbit; (2) provide maximum student involvement in the design, manufacturing, and launch phases of the project; and (3) use hybrid propulsion throughout. The following is the list of the project's design priorities (from highest to lowest): (1) safety, (2) cost, (3) minimum development time, (4) maximum use of the off-the-shelf components, (5) performance, and (6) minimum use of pyrotechnics.

Lewis, Mark J.↗