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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2002

Predicting Production Costs for Advanced Aerospace Vehicles

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This paper outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are soared according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this paper is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool.

Bao, Han P.↗
NASA NTRS1989

Weight and cost forecasting for advanced manned space vehicles

A mass and cost estimating computerized methology for predicting advanced manned space vehicle weights and costs was developed. The user friendly methology designated MERCER (Mass Estimating Relationship/Cost Estimating Relationship) organizes the predictive process according to major vehicle subsystem levels. Design, development, test, evaluation, and flight hardware cost forecasting is treated by the study. This methodology consists of a complete set of mass estimating relationships (MERs) which serve as the control components for the model and cost estimating relationships (CERs) which use MER output as input. To develop this model, numerous MER and CER studies were surveyed and modified where required. Additionally, relationships were regressed from raw data to accommodate the methology. The models and formulations which estimated the cost of historical vehicles to within 20 percent of the actual cost were selected. The result of the research, along with components of the MERCER Program, are reported. On the basis of the analysis, the following conclusions were established: (1) The cost of a spacecraft is best estimated by summing the cost of individual subsystems; (2) No one cost equation can be used for forecasting the cost of all spacecraft; (3) Spacecraft cost is highly correlated with its mass; (4) No study surveyed contained sufficient formulations to autonomously forecast the cost and weight of the entire advanced manned vehicle spacecraft program; (5) No user friendly program was found that linked MERs with CERs to produce spacecraft cost; and (6) The group accumulation weight estimation method (summing the estimated weights of the various subsystems) proved to be a useful method for finding total weight and cost of a spacecraft.

Williams, Raymond↗
NASA NTRS1998

Cost and Economics for Advanced Launch Vehicles

Market sensitivity and weight-based cost estimating relationships are key drivers in determining the financial viability of advanced space launch vehicle designs. Due to decreasing space transportation budgets and increasing foreign competition, it has become essential for financial assessments of prospective launch vehicles to be performed during the conceptual design phase. As part of this financial assessment, it is imperative to understand the relationship between market volatility, the uncertainty of weight estimates, and the economic viability of an advanced space launch vehicle program. This paper reports the results of a study that evaluated the economic risk inherent in market variability and the uncertainty of developing weight estimates for an advanced space launch vehicle program. The purpose of this study was to determine the sensitivity of a business case for advanced space flight design with respect to the changing nature of market conditions and the complexity of determining accurate weight estimations during the conceptual design phase. The expected uncertainty associated with these two factors drives the economic risk of the overall program. The study incorporates Monte Carlo simulation techniques to determine the probability of attaining specific levels of economic performance when the market and weight parameters are allowed to vary. This structured approach toward uncertainties allows for the assessment of risks associated with a launch vehicle program's economic performance. This results in the determination of the value of the additional risk placed on the project by these two factors.

Whitfield, Jeff↗
NASA NTRS2002

Process Cost Modeling for Multi-Disciplinary Design Optimization

For early design concepts, the conventional approach to cost is normally some kind of parametric weight-based cost model. There is now ample evidence that this approach can be misleading and inaccurate. By the nature of its development, a parametric cost model requires historical data and is valid only if the new design is analogous to those for which the model was derived. Advanced aerospace vehicles have no historical production data and are nowhere near the vehicles of the past. Using an existing weight-based cost model would only lead to errors and distortions of the true production cost. This report outlines the development of a process-based cost model in which the physical elements of the vehicle are costed according to a first-order dynamics model. This theoretical cost model, first advocated by early work at MIT, has been expanded to cover the basic structures of an advanced aerospace vehicle. Elemental costs based on the geometry of the design can be summed up to provide an overall estimation of the total production cost for a design configuration. This capability to directly link any design configuration to realistic cost estimation is a key requirement for high payoff MDO problems. Another important consideration in this report is the handling of part or product complexity. Here the concept of cost modulus is introduced to take into account variability due to different materials, sizes, shapes, precision of fabrication, and equipment requirements. The most important implication of the development of the proposed process-based cost model is that different design configurations can now be quickly related to their cost estimates in a seamless calculation process easily implemented on any spreadsheet tool. In successive sections, the report addresses the issues of cost modeling as follows. First, an introduction is presented to provide the background for the research work. Next, a quick review of cost estimation techniques is made with the intention to highlight their inappropriateness for what is really needed at the conceptual phase of the design process. The First-Order Process Velocity Cost Model (FOPV) is discussed at length in the next section. This is followed by an application of the FOPV cost model to a generic wing. For designs that have no precedence as far as acquisition costs are concerned, cost data derived from the FOPV cost model may not be accurate enough because of new requirements for shape complexity, material, equipment and precision/tolerance. The concept of Cost Modulus is introduced at this point to compensate for these new burdens on the basic processes. This is treated in section 5. The cost of a design must be conveniently linked to its CAD representation. The interfacing of CAD models and spreadsheets containing the cost equations is the subject of the next section, section 6. The last section of the report is a summary of the progress made so far, and the anticipated research work to be achieved in the future.

Bao, Han P.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Advanced transportation system studies technical area 2 (TA-2): Heavy lift launch vehicle development: Program Cost estimates - volume 3

The purpose of the TA-2 contract was to provide advanced launch vehicle concept definition and analysis to assist NASA in the identification of future launch vehicle requirements. Contracted analysis activities included vehicle sizing and performance analysis, subsystem concept definition, propulsion subsystem definition (foreign and domestic), ground operations and facilities analysis, and life cycle cost estimation. The basic period of performance of the TA-2 contract was from May 1992 through May 1993. No-cost extensions were exercised on the contract from June 1993 through July 1995. This document is part of the final report for the TA-2 contract. The final report consists of three volumes: Volume 1 is the Executive Summary, Volume 2 is Technical Results, and Volume 3 is Program Cost Estimates. The document-at-hand, Volume 3, provides a work breakdown structure dictionary, user's guide for the parametric life cycle cost estimation tool, and final report developed by ECON, Inc., under subcontract to Lockheed Martin on TA-2 for the analysis of heavy lift launch vehicle concepts.

McCurry, J. B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Propulsion options for space-based orbital transfer vehicles

A concept for a lightweight space-based orbital transfer vehicle (OTV) featuring thin, spherical, pressure-designed aluminum liquid-oxygen and liquid-hydrogen tanks and a truss structure of composite materials is used as a baseline design for a large-cargo OTV. Vehicle sizing, fleet analysis, and parametric cost analysis are used to evaluate the effects of engine technology, vehicle staging, and high-thrust versus low-thrust transfer. Results indicate that Earth-to-orbit launch costs and OTV engine performance are strong drivers in orbital transportation cost and that there is no significant benefit in staging vehicles. At the low values of Earth-to-orbit cost representative of advanced launch vehicles, low-thrust and high-thrust OTV's are competitive.

Rehder, J. J.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Use of Soft Computing Technologies for a Qualitative and Reliable Engine Control System for Propulsion Systems

The problem to be addressed in this paper is to explore how the use of Soft Computing Technologies (SCT) could be employed to improve overall vehicle system safety, reliability, and rocket engine performance by development of a qualitative and reliable engine control system (QRECS). Specifically, this will be addressed by enhancing rocket engine control using SCT, innovative data mining tools, and sound software engineering practices used in Marshall's Flight Software Group (FSG). The principle goals for addressing the issue of quality are to improve software management, software development time, software maintenance, processor execution, fault tolerance and mitigation, and nonlinear control in power level transitions. The intent is not to discuss any shortcomings of existing engine control methodologies, but to provide alternative design choices for control, implementation, performance, and sustaining engineering, all relative to addressing the issue of reliability. The approaches outlined in this paper will require knowledge in the fields of rocket engine propulsion (system level), software engineering for embedded flight software systems, and soft computing technologies (i.e., neural networks, fuzzy logic, data mining, and Bayesian belief networks); some of which are briefed in this paper. For this effort, the targeted demonstration rocket engine testbed is the MC-1 engine (formerly FASTRAC) which is simulated with hardware and software in the Marshall Avionics & Software Testbed (MAST) laboratory that currently resides at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center, building 4476, and is managed by the Avionics Department. A brief plan of action for design, development, implementation, and testing a Phase One effort for QRECS is given, along with expected results. Phase One will focus on development of a Smart Start Engine Module and a Mainstage Engine Module for proper engine start and mainstage engine operations. The overall intent is to demonstrate that by employing soft computing technologies, the quality and reliability of the overall scheme to engine controller development is further improved and vehicle safety is further insured. The final product that this paper proposes is an approach to development of an alternative low cost engine controller that would be capable of performing in unique vision spacecraft vehicles requiring low cost advanced avionics architectures for autonomous operations from engine pre-start to engine shutdown.

Trevino, Luis↗
NASA NTRS1996

Improving Conceptual Design for Launch Vehicles

This report summarizes activities performed during the second year of a three year cooperative agreement between NASA - Langley Research Center and Georgia Tech. Year 1 of the project resulted in the creation of a new Cost and Business Assessment Model (CABAM) for estimating the economic performance of advanced reusable launch vehicles including non-recurring costs, recurring costs, and revenue. The current year (second year) activities were focused on the evaluation of automated, collaborative design frameworks (computation architectures or computational frameworks) for automating the design process in advanced space vehicle design. Consistent with NASA's new thrust area in developing and understanding Intelligent Synthesis Environments (ISE), the goals of this year's research efforts were to develop and apply computer integration techniques and near-term computational frameworks for conducting advanced space vehicle design. NASA - Langley (VAB) has taken a lead role in developing a web-based computing architectures within which the designer can interact with disciplinary analysis tools through a flexible web interface. The advantages of this approach are, 1) flexible access to the designer interface through a simple web browser (e.g. Netscape Navigator), 2) ability to include existing 'legacy' codes, and 3) ability to include distributed analysis tools running on remote computers. To date, VAB's internal emphasis has been on developing this test system for the planetary entry mission under the joint Integrated Design System (IDS) program with NASA - Ames and JPL. Georgia Tech's complementary goals this year were to: 1) Examine an alternate 'custom' computational architecture for the three-discipline IDS planetary entry problem to assess the advantages and disadvantages relative to the web-based approach.and 2) Develop and examine a web-based interface and framework for a typical launch vehicle design problem.

John R. Olds↗
NASA NTRS1992

MINOTAUR (Maryland's innovative orbital technologically advanced University rocket)

Over the past decade, there has been an increasing interest in designing small commercial launch vehicles. Some of these designs include OSC's Pegasus, and AMROC's Aquila. Even though these vehicles are very different in their overall design characteristics, they all share a common thread of being expensive to design and manufacture. Each of these vehicles has an estimated production and operations cost of over $15000/kg of payload. In response to this high cost factor, the University of Maryland is developing a cost-effective alternative launch vehicle, Maryland's Innovative Orbital Technologically Advanced University Rocket (MINOTAUR). A preliminary cost analysis projects that MINOTAUR will cost under $10000/kg of payload. MINOTAUR will also serve as an enriching project devoted to an entirely student-designed-and-developed launch vehicle. This preliminary design of MINOTAUR was developed entirely by undergraduates in the University of Maryland's Space Vehicle Design class. At the start of the project, certain requirements and priorities were established as a basis from which to begin the design phase: (1) carry a 100 kg payload into a 200 km circular orbit; (2) provide maximum student involvement in the design, manufacturing, and launch phases of the project; and (3) use hybrid propulsion throughout. The following is the list of the project's design priorities (from highest to lowest): (1) safety, (2) cost, (3) minimum development time, (4) maximum use of the off-the-shelf components, (5) performance, and (6) minimum use of pyrotechnics.

Lewis, Mark J.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Microsensors and Microinstruments for Space Science and Exploration

Most future NASA spacecraft will be small, low cost, highly integrated vehicles using advanced technology. This will also be true of planetary rovers. In order to maintain a high scientific value to these missions, the instruments, sensors and subsystems must be dramatically miniaturized without compromising their measurement capabilities. A rover must be designed to deliver its science package. In fact, the rover should be considered as the arms, legs and/or wheels that are needed to enable a mobile integrated scientific payload.

Kukkonen, C. A.↗
NASA NTRS1975

Development of a remote digital augmentation system and application to a remotely piloted research vehicle

A cost-effective approach to flight testing advanced control concepts with remotely piloted vehicles is described. The approach utilizes a ground based digital computer coupled to the remotely piloted vehicle's motion sensors and control surface actuators through telemetry links to provide high bandwidth feedback control. The system was applied to the control of an unmanned 3/8-scale model of the F-15 airplane. The model was remotely augmented; that is, the F-15 mechanical and control augmentation flight control systems were simulated by the ground-based computer, rather than being in the vehicle itself. The results of flight tests of the model at high angles of attack are discussed.

Edwards, J. W.↗
NASA NTRS1998

Design of a Low Cost Avionics System for Launch Vehicles

Marshall Space Flight Center has long been one of the leaders in development of propulsion systems. Due to current launch vehicle costs, Marshall Space Flight Centers (MSFC) Advanced Space Transportation Program (ASTP) office has emphasized the development of low cost launch vehicles. The Bantam launch vehicle is one of the primary programs that has low cost as a requirement. One of the driving factors for a low cost launch vehicle is a low cost avionics system. This paper will summarize MSFC's Astrionics Laboratories efforts in designing a low cost avionics system. MSFC has done Phase A avionics system design and has been working with various contractors on a Phase B preliminary avionics design. Deriving the major requirements, trade studies and cost drivers are some of the topics to be discussed.

Crawford, Kevin↗
NASA NTRS1998

Advanced Fuels Can Reduce the Cost of Getting Into Space

Rocket propellant and propulsion technology improvements can reduce the development time and operational costs of new space vehicle programs, and advanced propellant technologies can make space vehicles safer and easier to operate, and can improve their performance. Five major areas have been identified for fruitful research: monopropellants, alternative hydrocarbons, gelled hydrogen, metallized gelled propellants, and high-energy-density propellants. During the development of the NASA Advanced Space Transportation Plan, these technologies were identified as those most likely to be effective for new NASA vehicles. Several NASA research programs had fostered work in fuels under the topic Fuels and Space Propellants for Reusable Launch Vehicles in 1996 to 1997. One component of this topic was to promote the development and commercialization of monopropellant rocket fuels, hypersonic fuels, and high-energy-density propellants. This research resulted in the teaming of small business with large industries, universities, and Government laboratories. This work is ongoing with seven contractors. The commercial products from these contracts will bolster advanced propellant research. Work also is continuing under other programs, which were recently realigned under the "Three Pillars" of NASA: Global Civil Aviation, Revolutionary Technology Leaps, and Access to Space. One of the five areas is described below, and its applications and effect on future missions is discussed. This work is being conducted at the NASA Lewis Research Center with the assistance of the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. The regenerative cooling of spacecraft engines and other components can improve overall vehicle performance. Endothermic fuels can absorb energy from an engine nozzle and chamber and help to vaporize high-density fuel before it enters the combustion chamber. For supersonic and hypersonic aircraft, endothermic fuels can absorb the high heat fluxes created on the wing leading edges and other aerodynamically heated components. Dual-fuel options are also possible, where endothermic hydrocarbon fuels are used for the lower speed portions of flight below Mach 8, and hydrogen fuel is used for the final acceleration to the upper stage separation velocity.

Palaszewski, Bryan A.↗