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At least 19 records

Central Africa Energy: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Explore Flared Gas as an Energy Source Alternative to Biomass in Central Africa

Much of Central Africa's economy is centered on oil production. Oil deposits lie below vast amounts of compressed natural gas. The latter is often flared off during oil extraction due to a lack of the infrastructure needed to utilize it for productive energy generation. Though gas flaring is discouraged by many due to its contributions to greenhouse emissions, it represents a waste process and is rarely tracked or recorded in this region. In contrast to this energy waste, roughly 80% of Africa's population lacks access to electricity and in turn uses biomass such as wood for heat and light. In addition to the dangers incurred from collecting and using biomass, the practice commonly leads to ecological change through the acquisition of wood from forests surrounding urban areas. The objective of this project was to gain insight on domestic energy usage in Central Africa, specifically Angola, Gabon, and the Republic of Congo. This was done through an analysis of deforestation, an estimation of gas flared, and a suitability study for the infrastructure needed to realize the natural gas resources. The energy from potential natural gas production was compared to the energy equivalent of the biomass being harvested. A site suitability study for natural gas pipeline routes from flare sites to populous locations was conducted to assess the feasibility of utilizing natural gas for domestic energy needs. Analyses and results were shared with project partners, as well as this project's open source approach to assessing the energy sector. Ultimately, Africa's growth demands energy for its people, and natural gas is already being produced by the flourishing petroleum industry in numerous African countries. By utilizing this gas, Africa could reduce flaring, recuperate the financial and environmental loss that flaring accounts for, and unlock a plentiful domestic energy source for its people. II. Introduction Background Africa is home to numerous burgeoning economies; a significant number rely on oil production as their primary source of revenue. Relative to its size and population density, the continent has a wealth of natural resources, including oil and natural gas deposits. The exploration of these resources is not a new endeavor, but rather one that spans decades, up to a century in some places. Their resources, if realized, could provide a great means of economic and social mobility for the people of Africa. Currently, Africa represents about 12 % of the energy market, yet at the same time, consumes only 3 % of the world's energy (Kasekende 2009). The higher

Jones, Amber↗

SERVIR-Africa: Developing an Integrated Platform for Floods Disaster Management in Africa

SERVIR-Africa is an ambitious regional visualization and monitoring system that integrates remotely sensed data with predictive models and field-based data to monitor ecological processes and respond to natural disasters. It aims addressing societal benefits including floods and turning data into actionable information for decision-makers. Floods are exogenous disasters that affect many parts of Africa, probably second only to drought in terms of social-economic losses. This paper looks at SERVIR-Africa's approach to floods disaster management through establishment of an integrated platform, floods prediction models, post-event flood mapping and monitoring as well as flood maps dissemination in support of flood disaster management.

Macharia, Daniel↗

Atmospheric Transport and Photochemistry of Ozone Over Central Southern Africa During the Southern Africa Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative

Vertically integrated back and forward trajectories for the 300-200, 700-500 and surface-800 hPa levels are calculated using Pretoria as point of origin for the Southern Africa Fire-Atmosphere Research Initiative (SAFARI) period September-October 1992. The transport fields are then combined to show both horizontal and vertical transport of air to and from Pretoria at the different levels. Air transport patterns in the vertical are linked to the occurrence of absolutely stable layers which are also evident in the 16 ozonesonde profiles recorded at Pretoria during SAFARI. The coherence of the stratification based on dynamical and ozone analysis permits the use of mean ozone profiles with air volume fluxes to interpret the ozone in terms of photochemistry and transport within stable layers. Extensive recirculation across the meridional plane at Pretoria implies that advection of ozone is slow and that photochemistry is responsible for the observed vertical structure over central southern Africa in September and October 1992. Requisite ozone formation rates are supported by model analysis of ozone and ozone precursors measured from SAFARI and Transport and Atmospheric Research Chemistry near the Equator-Atlantic aircraft.

Tyson, P. D.↗

Compositions of Three Lunar Meteorites: Meteorite Hills 01210, Northeast Africa 001, and Northwest Africa 3136

We report on compositions obtained by instrumental neutron activation analysis on three new lunar meteorites, MET 01210 (Meteorite Hills, Antarctica; 23 g), NEA 001 (Northeast Africa, Sudan; 262 g), and NWA 3136 (Northwest Africa, Algeria or Morocco; 95 g). As in previous similar studies, we divided our samples into many (8-9) small (approximately 30 mg) subsamples prior to analysis.

Korotev, R. L.↗

Northwest Africa 8535 and Northwest Africa 10463: New Insights into the Angrite Parent Body

The angrite meteorites are valuable samples of igneous rocks formed early in Solar System history (approx.4.56 Ga, summarized in [1]). This small meteorite group (approx.24 individually named specimens) consists of rocks with somewhat exotic mineral compositions (e.g., high Ca olivine, Al-Ti-bearing diopside-hedenbergite, calcium silico-phosphates), resulting in exotic bulk rock compositions. These mineral assemblages remain fairly consistent among angrite samples, which suggests they formed due to similar processes from a single mantle source. There is still debate over the formation process for these rocks (see summary in [1]), and analysis of additional angrite samples may help to address this debate. Toward this end, we have begun to study two new angrites, Northwest Africa 8535, a dunite, and Northwest Africa 10463, a basaltic angrite.

Santos, A. R.↗

South Africa Ecological Conservation: Identifying and Mapping Riparian Areas in South Africa with Earth Observations

Riparian zones are thin strips of wetland that occur along the edges of rivers, lakes, and other water bodies. They provide many ecosystem and societal benefits such as stream bank stabilization, flood control, and habitat stability, making these zones very important areas to preserve and protect. Recognizing the need to accurately map these ecosystems in a cost-effective way, we partnered with the South African National Biodiversity Institute (SANBI) and the Biodiversity Survey of the Cape(BioSCape) to develop a GI methodology using Esri's ArcGIS Pro and data from Landsat 9 Operational Land Imager-2, Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument, and the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission to identify potential riparian zones (PRZ) and observed riparian vegetation(ORV) in the Southern Cape and the North West Province of South Africa to estimate the actual riparian vegetation (ARV) within those areas. Potential riparian ecosystems were calculated by utilizing a Topographic Wetness Index (TWI) and a water feature layer, while observed riparian vegetation were calculated by overlaying a Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and TWI. Actual Riparian Vegetation is determined by the overlap of ORV with PRZ and is done with conditional statements; ORV within PRZ is ARV. This method significantly improved a current riparian land cover classification since it combined high resolution optical imagery and topographic data. We anticipate such maps will be used by conservationists and practitioners interested in riparian monitoring and management.

Remote Sensing↗

Constraints on lithospheric structure from satellite potential field data: Africa and Asia. Analysis and interpretation of MAGSAT anomalies over North Africa

Crustal anomaly detection with MAGSAT data is frustrated by the inherent resolving power of the data and by contamination from the external and core fields. The quality of the data might be tested by modeling specific tectonic features which produce anomalies that fall within the proposed resolution and crustal amplitude capabilities of the MAGSAT fields. To test this hypothesis, the north African hotspots associated with Ahaggar, Tibestia and Darfur have been modeled as magnetic induction anomalies due solely to shallower depth to the Curie isotherm surface beneath these features. The MAGSAT data were reduced by subtracting the external and core fields to isolate the scalar and vertical component crustal signals. The predicted model magnetic signal arising from the surface topography of the uplift and the Curie isotherm surface was calculated at MAGSAT altitudes by the Fourier transform technique modified to allow for variable magnetization. In summary it is suggested that the region beneath Ahaggar is associated with a strong thermal anomaly and the predicted anomaly best fits the associated MAGSAT anomaly if the African plate is moving in a northeasterly direction.

Phillips, R. J.↗

Investigating the Strength and Variability of El Niño Southern Oscillation Teleconnections to Hydroclimate and Maize Yields in Southern and East Africa

The state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is critical for seasonal climate forecasts, but recent events diverged substantially from expectations in many regions, including Sub-Saharan Africa where seasonal forecasts are critical tools for addressing food security. Here, we evaluate 39 years (1982–2020) of data on hydroclimate, leaf area index, and maize yields to investigate the strength of ENSO teleconnections in southern and East Africa. Teleconnections to precipitation, soil moisture, and leaf area index are generally stronger during ENSO phases that cause drought conditions (El Niño in southern Africa and La Niña in East Africa), with seasonality that aligns well with the maize growing seasons. Within maize growing areas, however, ENSO teleconnections to hydroclimate and vegetation are generally weaker compared to the broader geographic regions, especially in East Africa. There is also little evidence that the magnitude of the ENSO event affects the hydroclimate or vegetation response in these maize regions. Maize yields in Kenya, Malawi, South Africa, and Zimbabwe all correlate significantly with hydroclimate and leaf area index, with South Africa and Zimbabwe showing the strongest and most consistent yield responses to ENSO events. Our results highlight the chain of causality from El Niño and La Niña forcing of regional anomalies in hydroclimate to vegetation health and maize yields in southern and East Africa. The large spread across individual ENSO events, however, underscores the limitations of this climate mode for seasonal climate prediction in the region, and the importance of finding additional sources of skill for improving climate and yield forecasts.

El Niño Southern Oscillation↗

Africa's Megafans and Their Tectonic Setting

Megafans are a really extensive continental sediment bodies, fluvially derived, and fan-shaped in planform. Only those >80 km long were included in this study. Africa's megafans were mapped for purposes of both comprehensive geomorphic description and as a method of mapping by remote sensing large probable fluvial sediment bodies (we exclude sediment bodies deposited in well defined, modern floodplains and coastal deltas). Our criteria included a length dimension of >80 km and maximum width >40 km, partial cone morphology, and a radial drainage pattern. Visible and especially IR imagery were used to identify the features, combined with topographic SRTM data. We identified 99 megafans most of which are unstudied thus far. Their feeder rivers responsible for depositing megafan sediments rise on, and are consequent drainages oriented down the slopes of the swells that have dominated African landscapes since approximately 34 Ma (the high points in Africa's so-called basin-and-swell topography [1]). Most megafans (66%) have developed along these consequent rivers relatively near the swell cores, oriented radially away from the swells. The vast basins between the swells provide accommodation for megafan sediment wedges. Although clearly visible remotely, most megafans are inactive as a result of incision by the feeder river (which then no longer operates on the fan surface). Two tectonic settings control the location of Africa's megafans, 66% on swell flanks, and 33% related to rifts. (i) Swell flanks Most megafans are apexed relatively near the core of the parent swell, and are often clustered in groups: e.g., six on the west and north flanks of the Hoggar Swell (Algeria), seven on the north and south flanks of the Tibesti Swell (Libya-Chad borderlands), twelve on the west flank of the Ethiopian Swell, four on the east flank of the East African Swell (Kenya), Africa's largest, and eight around Angola's Bié Swell (western Zambia, northern Namibia). A cluster of possible fans lies on the western margin of the Congo Basin (Mayombe Swell), and on the coastal slopes of the Namibia Swell. Sheer size may have militated aginst the recognition of many megafans: the largest in the Sahara are the Teghahart (378 km, Hoggar Swell, Algeria), and the Wadi Albalata (340 km, Uweinat Swell, Egypt). In southern Africa the largest are the Cubango (320 km, Bié Swell, Angola/ Namibia), and the Limpopo (230 km, Mozambique). (ii) Rift zones (a) Steer's horns basins-wide depressions centered on rifts. The largest contiguous group (n=14) developed in a steer's-horns basin occupies the wide Muglad depression (200-350 km, South Sudan). Four rift-related megafans lie SE of Lake Chad (Chad). Nine megafans occupy the complex Anza Rift in Kenya/South Somalia. The Salamat megafan (Chad), is unusual because it oriented parallel with the linked Salamat, Doseo and Doba rift axes, and is consequently one of the longest in Africa (465 km). (b) Rift depressions sensu stricto. Most rifts are too narrow to provide a transverse dimension large enough to accommodate megafans. Although well-known, the Okavango Rift (NW Botswana, NE Namibia) is unique in Africa in hosting three megafans within identifiable faulted margins. The Nile megafan is Africa's largest (476 km) and comprises the vast Sudd wetland (South Sudan). An explanation for its remarkable size may be its location in a depression at the junction of two conducive tectonic zones, the East African Swell margin and the Muglad steer's-horns depression. Discharge of the River Nile, the largest in the region, has allowed the Nile megafan to outcompete neighboring megafans for space.

Wilkinson, M. J.↗

Desert Dust, Industrialization and Agricultural Fires: Health Impacts of Outdoor Air Pollution in Africa

The African continent continuously experiences extreme aerosol load conditions, during which the World Health Organizational (WHO) clean air standard of 10 μgm(exp ‐3) of PM(2.5) mass is systematically exceeded. Africa holds the world largest source of desert dust emissions, undergoes strong industrial growth, and produces approximately a third of the Earth's biomass burning aerosol particles. Sub‐Saharan biomass burning is driven by agricultural practices, such as burning fields and bushes in the post‐harvest season for fertilization, land management and pest control. Thus, these emissions are predominantly anthropogenic. Here we use global atmospheric composition, climate, and health models to simulate the chemical composition of the atmosphere and calculate the mortality rates for Africa by distinguishing between purely natural, industrial/domestic and biomass burning emissions. Air quality related deaths in Africa rank within the top leading causes of death in Africa. Our results of ~780,000 premature deaths annually point to the extensive health impacts of natural emissions, high mortality rate caused by industrialization in Nigeria and South Africa, and to a smaller extent by fire emissions in Central and West Africa. 43,000 premature deaths in Africa are linked to biomass burning mainly driven by agriculture. Our results also show that natural sources, in particular windblown dust emissions, have large impacts on air quality and human health in Africa.

fires↗

Evaluation of the Large-Scale and Regional Climatic Response Across North Africa to Natural Variability in Oceanic Modes and Terrestrial Vegetation Among the CMIP5 Models

Hydrologic variability is a serious threat to the poverty-stricken regions of North Africa. Meanwhile, the scientific community struggles to attribute these extreme climatic episodes to specific oceanic and land drivers. Prior modeling studies have not assessed simulated feedbacks over North Africa against an established observational benchmark, so their results are considered as untested, model-specific findings. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Five (CMIP5) archive represents the state-of-the-art in climate projections, with most CMIP5 models now containing interactive vegetation phenology; however, there have been no studies to date of their simulated vegetation feedbacks. The capability of CMIP5 models at accurately simulating the forcing of both sea-surface temperature (SST) and regional leaf area index (LAI) anomalies on North African climate needs to be a key consideration in assessing the models’ overall credibility and determining appropriate model weighting for developing climate projections. The Generalized Equilibrium Feedback Assessment (GEFA) is a promising statistical method, which can be applied to either model output or observations, for isolating the local and remote impacts of individual oceanic or terrestrial forcings on regional climate. We performed a combined observational and modeling assessment of land-ocean-atmosphere interactions across the distinct ecological and moisture gradients of North Africa. We evaluated and demonstrated the reliability of the GEFA statistical method over North Africa using the Community Earth System Model (CESM), applied GEFA to observational data to quantify the observed forcing of ocean basin SST anomalies and regional LAI anomalies on North African climate, evaluated the CMIP5 models’ performance in terms of representing these key observed feedbacks, and formulated CMIP5 feedback performance metrics for weighting North African climate projections. Our study represented the first attempt to separate the observed roles of oceanic and vegetation feedbacks across North Africa, the first systematic assessment and intercomparison of land-ocean-atmosphere feedbacks in CMIP5, and the first exploration of vegetation feedbacks among CMIP5 models. The following work was accomplished. (1) The team generated 14 scientific publications and 30 presentations based on the DOE-funded research. (2) A stepwise version of the GEFA statistical method was developed in which unimportant forcings were dropped to increase the reliability of the results. (3) SGEFA was successfully validated through experiments with CESM in terms of its ability to isolate the atmospheric responses to individual oceanic or land forcings. (4) Observational evidence was revealed for the Sahel’s positive vegetation-rainfall feedback on the seasonal to interannual time scale, and it was attributed to a moisture recycling mechanism rather than an albedo mechanism. (5) An approach with SGEFA was developed in which the individual contributions of soil moisture versus vegetation forcings could be separated, revealing that the former forcing outweighed the latter for sub-Saharan Africa. (6) Tropical ocean temperatures were found to be key regulators of pan-tropical vegetation variability, especially for arid and semi-arid regions, including sub-Saharan Africa. (7) The CMIP5 models largely underestimated the importance of land feedbacks across the Sahel. (8) The general consensus among CMIP5 models indicates, for the late 21st century, a diminished seasonal predictability of sub-Saharan African regional climate and an elevated role of the land surface compared to oceanic drivers in regulating regional climate variability. (9) Land-ocean-atmosphere interactions were demonstrated to be key contributors to the seasonal predictability of African wildfire activity. (10) The El Djouf was determined to be of greater importance than the Bodélé depression in terms of providing trans-Atlantic dust transport to the Americas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Epidemiologic and Environmental Risk Factors of Rift Valley Fever in Southern Africa from 2008 to 2011

Background: Rift Valley fever (RVF) outbreaks have been associated with periods of widespread and above normal rainfall over several months. Knowledge on the environmental factors influencing disease transmission dynamics has provided the basis for developing models to predict RVF outbreaks in Africa. From 2008 to 2011, South Africa experienced the worst wave of RVF outbreaks in almost 40 years. We investigated rainfall associated environmental factors in southern Africa preceding these outbreaks. Methods: RVF epizootic records obtained from the World Animal Health Information Database (WAHID), documenting livestock species affected, location, and time, were analyzed. Environmental variables including rainfall and satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data were collected and assessed in outbreak regions to understand the underlying drivers of the outbreaks. Results: The predominant domestic vertebrate species affected in 2008 and 2009 were cattle, when outbreaks were concentrated in the eastern provinces of South Africa. In 2010 and 2011, outbreaks occurred in the interior and southern provinces affecting over 16,000 sheep. The highest number of cases occurred between January and April but epidemics occurred in different regions every year, moving from the northeast of South Africa toward the southwest with each progressing year. The outbreaks showed a pattern of increased rainfall preceding epizootics ranging from 9 to 152 days; however, NDVI and rainfall were less correlated with the start of the outbreaks than has been observed in eastern Africa. Conclusions: Analyses of the multiyear RVF outbreaks of 2008 to 2011 in South Africa indicated that rainfall, NDVI, and other environmental and geographical factors, such as land use, drainage, and topography, play a role in disease emergence. Current and future investigations into these factors will be able to contribute to improving spatial accuracy of models to map risk areas, allowing adequate time for preparation and prevention before an outbreak occurs.

Rift Valley Fever (RVF)↗

The Efficacy of Seasonal Terrestrial Water Storage Forecasts for Predicting Vegetation Activity Over Africa

Terrestrial water storage (TWS) provides important information on terrestrial hydroclimate and may have value for seasonal forecasting because of its strong persistence. We use the NASA Hydrological Forecast and Analysis System (NHyFAS) to investigate TWS forecast skill over Africa and assess its value for predicting vegetation activity from satellite estimates of leaf area index (LAI). Forecast skill is high over East and Southern Africa, extending up to 3–6 months in some cases, with more modest skill over West Africa. Highest skill generally occurs during the dry season or beginning of the wet season when TWS anomalies from the previous wet season are most likely to carry forward in time. In East Africa, this occurs prior to and during the transition into the spring “Long Rains” from January–March, while in Southern Africa this period of highest skill starts at the beginning of the dry season in April and extends through to the start of the wet season in October. TWS is highly and positively correlated with LAI, and a logistic regression model shows high cross-validation skill in predicting above or below normal LAI using TWS. Combining the LAI regression model with the NHyFAS forecasts, 1-month lead LAI predictions have high accuracy over East and Southern Africa, with reduced but significant skill at 3-month leads over smaller sub-regions. This highlights the potential value of TWS as an additional source of information for seasonal forecasts over Africa, with direct applications to some of the most vulnerable agricultural regions on the continent.

Terrestrial water shortage↗

Biomass burning declines lead to large net reductions in NO2 concentrations over north equatorial Africa in spite of growing fossil fuel emissions

Socio-economic development in low and middle-income countries has been accompanied by increased emissions of air pollutants such as nitrogen oxides (NOx: nitrogen dioxide (NO2) + nitric oxide (NO)), which affect human health. In sub-Saharan Africa, fossil fuel combustion has nearly doubled since 2000. At the same time, biomass burning—another important NOx source—has declined in Africa’s northern biomass burning region, attributed to changes in climate and anthropogenic fire management associated with agricultural development. Here we use satellite observations of tropospheric NO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) and burned area to identify NO2 trends and drivers over Africa. Across the northern ecosystems where biomass burning occurs—home to over 350 million people—mean annual tropospheric NO2 VCDs decreased by 4.5% from 2005 through 2017 during the biomass burning season of November through February. Reductions in burned area explained the majority of these change in NO2 VCDs, but there were also weaker relationships between changes in NO2 VCDs and fossil fuel emissions over parts of West Africa, which were stronger during rainy season. Over Africa’s biomass burning regions, NO2 VCDs tended to decrease with increasing population density up to a threshold of approximately 180 people per km2, suggesting that anthropogenic activity causes a net reduction in NO2 emissions across roughly 90% of the continent’s biomass burning regions. In contrast to the widely-held perception that socio-economic development worsens air quality in low and middle-income nations, our results suggest that countries in Africa’s northern biomass burning region are following a different pathway, resulting in regional air quality benefits. However, these benefits may be lost with increasing fossil fuel use.

Biomass burning↗

Projected regional changes in mean and extreme precipitation over Africa in CMIP6 models

Precipitation plays a crucial role in Africa's agriculture, water resources, and economic stability, and assessing its potential changes under future warming is important. In this study, we demonstrate that the latest generation of coupled climate models (CMIP6) robustly project substantial wetting over western, central, and eastern Africa. In contrast, southern Africa and Madagascar tend toward future drying. Under shared socioeconomic pathways (defined by Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), our results suggest that most parts of Africa, except for southern Africa and Madagascar, will experience very wet years five times more often in 2050–2100, according to the multi-model median. Conversely, southern Africa and Madagascar will experience very dry years twice as often by the end of the 21st century. Furthermore, we find that the increasing risk of extreme annual rainfall is accompanied by a shift toward days with heavier rainfall. Our findings provide important insights into inter-hemispheric changes in precipitation characteristics under future warming and underscore the need for serious mitigation and adaptation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗