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Results for “Agricultural Production Systems Simulation”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2022

AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment of Agricultural Systems in Nioro, Senegal: Representative Agricultural Pathways, Climate, Crop and Economic Datasets

This paper describes the datasets that were used to implement an AgMIP Regional Integrated Assessment for the Nioro region of Senegal to assess the potential impacts of climate change on the principal agricultural system in the Senegal peanut basin and to assess adaptations of that system to climate change under current as well as future climate and socio-economic conditions. This dataset includes the Representative Agricultural Pathways developed for Nioro from 2000-2050; the climate data that were used to implement crop yield simulations; the data that were used to parameterize the DSSAT and APSIM crop models, including historical climate data and future climate scenarios; and the data that were used to parameterize the Tradeoff Analysis Model for Multi-dimensional Impact Assessment (TOAMD) economic simulation model, as well as simulated model outputs.

AgMIP↗
NASA NTRS2006

Simulating Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Data Using Hyperion and MODIS

The success of MODIS (the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer) in creating unprecedented, timely, high-quality data for vegetation and other studies has created great anticipation for data from VIIRS (the Visible/Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite). VIIRS will be carried onboard the joint NASA/Department of Defense/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NPP (NPOESS (National Polar-orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System) Preparatory Project). Because the VIIRS instruments will have lower spatial resolution than the current MODIS instruments 400 m versus 250 m at nadir for the channels used to generate Normalized Difference Vegetation Index data, scientists need the answer to this question: how will the change in resolution affect vegetation studies? By using simulated VIIRS measurements, this question may be answered before the VIIRS instruments are deployed in space. Using simulated VIIRS products, the U.S. Department of Agriculture and other operational agencies can then modify their decision support systems appropriately in preparation for receipt of actual VIIRS data. VIIRS simulations and validations will be based on the ART (Application Research Toolbox), an integrated set of algorithms and models developed in MATLAB(Registerd TradeMark) that enables users to perform a suite of simulations and statistical trade studies on remote sensing systems. Specifically, the ART provides the capability to generate simulated multispectral image products, at various scales, from high spatial hyperspectral and/or multispectral image products. The ART uses acquired ( real ) or synthetic datasets, along with sensor specifications, to create simulated datasets. For existing multispectral sensor systems, the simulated data products are used for comparison, verification, and validation of the simulated system s actual products. VIIRS simulations will be performed using Hyperion and MODIS datasets. The hyperspectral and hyperspatial properties of Hyperion data will be used to produce simulated MODIS and VIIRS products. Hyperion-derived MODIS data will be compared with near-coincident MODIS collects to validate both spectral and spatial synthesis, which will ascertain the accuracy of converting from MODIS to VIIRS. MODIS-derived VIIRS data is needed for global coverage and for the generation of time series for regional and global investigations. These types of simulations will have errors associated with aliasing for some scene types. This study will help quantify these errors and will identify cases where high-quality, MODIS-derived VIIRS data will be available.

Ross, Kenton W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Simulations as a tool for evaluating Landsat-based crop area estimation systems

An important use of remotely sensed data is in the estimation of agricultural production in foreign areas. Evaluation of such production estimates is difficult because of the lack of independent crop inventories. This paper presents simulation software developed to assess the effects of various factors on the performance of Landsat-based agricultural crop area estimators. An application of the simulator to determine whether the interaction of weather cycles with the Landsat orbital period could induce a systematic bias in large area crop estimates is discussed in detail. The simulation study was performed for the spring grains growing region of the Soviet Union.

Ramey, D. B.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Swath width study. A simulation assessment of costs and benefits of a sensor system for agricultural application

Satellites provide an excellent platform from which to observe crops on the scale and frequency required to provide accurate crop production estimates on a worldwide basis. Multispectral imaging sensors aboard these platforms are capable of providing data from which to derive acreage and production estimates. The issue of sensor swath width was examined. The quantitative trade trade necessary to resolve the combined issue of sensor swath width, number of platforms, and their orbits was generated and are included. Problems with different swath width sensors were analyzed and an assessment of system trade-offs of swath width versus number of satellites was made for achieving Global Crop Production Forecasting.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS1976

LACIE performance predictor FOC users manual

The LACIE Performance Predictor (LPP) is a computer simulation of the LACIE process for predicting worldwide wheat production. The simulation provides for the introduction of various errors into the system and provides estimates based on these errors, thus allowing the user to determine the impact of selected error sources. The FOC LPP simulates the acquisition of the sample segment data by the LANDSAT Satellite (DAPTS), the classification of the agricultural area within the sample segment (CAMS), the estimation of the wheat yield (YES), and the production estimation and aggregation (CAS). These elements include data acquisition characteristics, environmental conditions, classification algorithms, the LACIE aggregation and data adjustment procedures. The operational structure for simulating these elements consists of the following key programs: (1) LACIE Utility Maintenance Process, (2) System Error Executive, (3) Ephemeris Generator, (4) Access Generator, (5) Acquisition Selector, (6) LACIE Error Model (LEM), and (7) Post Processor.

Source record↗
NASA NTRS2016

Simulating US Agriculture in a Modern Dust Bowl Drought

Drought-induced agricultural loss is one of the most costly impacts of extreme weather, and without mitigation, climate change is likely to increase the severity and frequency of future droughts. The Dust Bowl of the 1930s was the driest and hottest for agriculture in modern US history. Improvements in farming practices have increased productivity, but yields today are still tightly linked to climate variation and the impacts of a 1930s-type drought on current and future agricultural systems remain unclear. Simulations of biophysical process and empirical models suggest that Dust-Bowl-type droughts today would have unprecedented consequences, with yield losses approx.50% larger than the severe drought of 2012. Damages at these extremes are highly sensitive to temperature, worsening by approx.25% with each degree centigrade of warming. We find that high temperatures can be more damaging than rainfall deficit, and, without adaptation, warmer mid-century temperatures with even average precipitation could lead to maize losses equivalent to the Dust Bowl drought. Warmer temperatures alongside consecutive droughts could make up to 85% of rain-fed maize at risk of changes that may persist for decades. Understanding the interactions of weather extremes and a changing agricultural system is therefore critical to effectively respond to, and minimize, the impacts of the next extreme drought event.

climate change impacts↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Demonstration of in-Situ Resource Utilization of Lunar Regolith for Plant Growing Systems Through Scaled Capillary Models

The development of reliable and bioregenerative crop growth production systems is vital for human exploration into deep space. As the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) prepares for the Artemis missions, scientists need to find a way to provide consistent and sufficient water delivery for all stages of a plant’s life cycle. NASA has been able to successfully model passive flow through felt material, to mimic the water uptake and transport through a plant, in microgravity. However, more studies need to be conducted to adapt the model for a substrate-based system and incorporate how flow will change during each stage of plant growth. For future missions, payload requirements to support crop production systems will need to be limited, leading to the use of available resources, such as lunar regolith. Although numerous lunar regolith simulants are commercially available, few have been evaluated for their suitability in agricultural applications. First, a base regolith simulant will need to be identified based on its physical and chemical properties. Then, additional amendments to improve the properties of the simulants to support plant growth will be identified. The design and composition of the substrate will be based on water transport requirements for different stages of plant growth. Scaled capillary models can be utilized to study surface-tension driven flows through various designer substrates to modify the physical properties of the selected regolith simulant. These models can accurately represent how flow will act in a reduced gravity environment, which can be used to design a full-scale facility for surface missions. This project will aid space researchers in the design of future crop production systems for surface missions by creating a refined model that can be used at all stages of plant growth and utilize in situ resources.

Fluids↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Plant Watering in Low Gravity: The Study of the Fluid Dynamic Characteristics of Lunar Regolith Simulant for the Application of Crop Production Systems Using Scaled Capillary Devices

Bioregenerative life support is key to sustaining human life on the surface of other celestial bodies for missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO). One example of such life support includes crop production systems capable of producing both plants and fungi for astronaut consumption. There have been numerous efforts to design and deploy such systems; however, there have been persistent fundamental issues with the water delivery systems. This study aims to understand and model the fluid dynamics of crop production systems to inform engineers about the key parameters needed for the design of such systems. The primary objective is to validate and expand upon NASA’s previous study, the Plant Water Management (PWM) experiments, to understand the fluid phenomena present in substrate-based systems. The model will then be expanded to include parameters for changing the test material of potential growth media as well as the varying water demands of the crop throughout its different stages in its life cycle. Specifically, this study is focused on the viability of using lunar regolith for agricultural purposes. Terrestrial-based scaled capillary models will be utilized to mimic the fluid phenomena occurring due to the low gravity environment seen on the lunar surface. Ultimately, the study will model the fluid flow present in the lunar regolith simulant and inform researchers on how to incorporate the material into crop production systems on the lunar surface.

gravity↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Machine Learning Emulators and Empirical Models Combining Climate and Global Crop Models for Seasonal Agricultural Production

We present results from several connected efforts to apply machine learning methods to estimates of seasonal agricultural production anomalies around the world. First, we apply the XGBoost Random Forest method to fit emulators that mimic global crop models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison (GGCMI). These are the same models used in the agricultural sector simulations of the Inter-Sectoral Impacts Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP). These emulators use 8 climate variables split across 5 sub-seasonal representations of the growing season for each ½ degree grid cell around the world for maize, wheat, rice and soybeans. Emulators are useful for estimating conditions that have not already been simulated by GGCMI (e.g., in a seasonal prediction model) and also to diagnose model differences and capabilities. For example, emulators of the pDSSAT maize model tend to be more reliant on mean temperatures than the LPJmL model, and few models have strong responses to cold extremes. Second, we use a similar XGBoost approach to fit empirical models for national production data for the top 20 producing countries according to the United Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO). Models utilize both climate observations and the GGCM models as predictors, resulting in skillful models for many (but not all) top producing-countries. The patterns of climate and crop model features selected indicate regions and systems that are better or worse simulated by the GGCMs. For example, information in cold extreme predictors is often combined with GGCM output predictors to provide sensitivity that models may underrepresent.

machine learning↗
NASA NTRS2020

Simulating the Cascading Effects of an Extreme Agricultural Production Shock: Global Implications of a Contemporary US Dust Bowl Event

Higher temperatures expected by midcentury increase the risk of shocks to crop production, while the interconnected nature of the current global food system functions to spread the impact of localized production shocks throughout the world. In this study, we analyze the global potential impact of a present-day event of equivalent magnitude to the US Dust Bowl, modeling the ways in which a sudden decline in US wheat production could cascade through the global network of agricultural trade. We use observations of country-level production, reserves, and trade data in a Food Shock Cascade model to explore trade adjustments and country-level inventory changes in response to a major, multiyear production decline. We find that a 4-year decline in wheat production of the same proportional magnitude as occurred during the Dust Bowl greatly reduces both wheat supply and reserves in the United States and propagates through the global trade network. By year 4 of the event, US wheat exports fall from 90.5 trillion kcal before the drought to 48 trillion to 52 trillion kcal, and the United States exhausts 94% of its reserves. As a result of reduced US exports, other countries meet their needs by leveraging their own reserves, leading to a 31% decline in wheat reserves globally. These findings demonstrate that an extreme production decline would lead to substantial supply shortfalls in both the United States and in other countries, where impacts outside the United States strongly depend on a country's reserves and on its relative position in the global trade network.

Heslin, Alison↗
NASA NTRS2020

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong pre-war fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing – similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1-2 year) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective pre-war management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously-known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

food from the ocean↗
NASA NTRS2015

Representing Extremes in Agricultural Models

AgMIP and related projects are conducting several activities to understand and improve crop model response to extreme events. This involves crop model studies as well as the generation of climate datasets and scenarios more capable of capturing extremes. Models are typically less responsive to extreme events than we observe, and miss several forms of extreme events. Models also can capture interactive effects between climate change and climate extremes. Additional work is needed to understand response of markets and economic systems to food shocks. AgMIP is planning a Coordinated Global and Regional Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Agricultural Production and Food Security with an aim to inform the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

Agricultural systems↗
NASA NTRS2016

A Satellite Data-Driven, Client-Server Decision Support Application for Agricultural Water Resources Management

Water cycle extremes such as droughts and floods present a challenge for water managers and for policy makers responsible for the administration of water supplies in agricultural regions. In addition to the inherent uncertainties associated with forecasting extreme weather events, water planners need to anticipate water demands and water user behavior in a typical circumstances. This requires the use decision support systems capable of simulating agricultural water demand with the latest available data. Unfortunately, managers from local and regional agencies often use different datasets of variable quality, which complicates coordinated action. In previous work we have demonstrated novel methodologies to use satellite-based observational technologies, in conjunction with hydro-economic models and state of the art data assimilation methods, to enable robust regional assessment and prediction of drought impacts on agricultural production, water resources, and land allocation. These methods create an opportunity for new, cost-effective analysis tools to support policy and decision-making over large spatial extents. The methods can be driven with information from existing satellite-derived operational products, such as the Satellite Irrigation Management Support system (SIMS) operational over California, the Cropland Data Layer (CDL), and using a modified light-use efficiency algorithm to retrieve crop yield from the synergistic use of MODIS and Landsat imagery. Here we present an integration of this modeling framework in a client-server architecture based on the Hydra platform. Assimilation and processing of resource intensive remote sensing data, as well as hydrologic and other ancillary information occur on the server side. This information is processed and summarized as attributes in water demand nodes that are part of a vector description of the water distribution network. With this architecture, our decision support system becomes a light weight 'app' that connects to the server to retrieve the latest information regarding water demands, land use, yields and hydrologic information required to run different management scenarios. Furthermore, this architecture ensures all agencies and teams involved in water management use the same, up-to-date information in their simulations.

Agricultural↗
NASA NTRS1983

Potential for monitoring soil erosion features and soil erosion modeling components from remotely sensed data

Accurate estimates of soil erosion and its effects on soil productivity are essential in agricultural decision making and planning from the field scale to the national level. Erosion models have been primarily developed for designing erosion control systems, predicting sediment yield for reservoir design, predicting sediment transport, and simulating water quality. New models proposed are more comprehensive in that the necessary components (hydrology, erosion-sedimentation, nutrient cycling, tillage, etc.) are linked in a model appropriate for studying the erosion-productivity problem. Recent developments in remote sensing systems, such as Landsat Thematic Mapper, Shuttle Imaging Radar (SIR-B), etc., can contribute significantly to the future development and operational use of these models.

Langran, K. J.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Winter Simulation Conference, Miami Beach, Fla., December 4-6, 1978, Proceedings. Volumes 1 & 2

The papers report on the various aspects of simulation such as random variate generation, simulation optimization, ranking and selection of alternatives, model management, documentation, data bases, and instructional methods. Simulation studies in a wide variety of fields are described, including system design and scheduling, government and social systems, agriculture, computer systems, the military, transportation, corporate planning, ecosystems, health care, manufacturing and industrial systems, computer networks, education, energy, production planning and control, financial models, behavioral models, information systems, and inventory control.

Highland, H. J.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Narrowing Uncertainties in the Effects of Elevated CO2 on Crops

Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.

carbon dioxide (CO2)↗
NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗
NASA NTRS2010

Towards Global Simulation of Irrigation in a Land Surface Model: Multiple Cropping and Rice Paddy in Southeast Asia

Agricultural land use significantly influences the surface water and energy balances. Effects of irrigation on land surface states and fluxes include repartitioning of latent and sensible heat fluxes, an increase in net radiation, and an increase in soil moisture and runoff. We are working on representing irrigation practices in continental- to global-scale land surface simulation in NASA's Global Land Data Assimilation System (GLDAS). Because agricultural practices across the nations are diverse, and complex, we are attempting to capture the first-order reality of the regional practices before achieving a global implementation. This study focuses on two issues in Southeast Asia: multiple cropping and rice paddy irrigation systems. We first characterize agricultural practices in the region (i.e., crop types, growing seasons, and irrigation) using the Global data set of monthly irrigated and rainfed crop areas around the year 2000 (MIRCA2000) dataset. Rice paddy extent is identified using remote sensing products. Whether irrigated or rainfed, flooded fields need to be represented and treated explicitly. By incorporating these properties and processes into a physically based land surface model, we are able to quantify the impacts on the simulated states and fluxes.

Beaudoing, Hiroko Kato↗