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At least 19 records

Air-sea interactions yielding rapid Beaufort Sea ice losses during the 2021 ONR THINICE Pilot Field Campaign

Seasonal sea ice coverage has declined in the Pacific Arctic region. Losses of the ice cover have modified the region’s surface heat and momentum fluxes providing weather systems more direct interaction with the upper ocean. For example, recent cyclones that have passed over these waters have initiated multiple air-sea interactions and have impacted mixed layer depth, wave properties, and sea ice mass budgets due to diabatic and/or advective processes. As a United States Office of Naval Research (ONR) Departmental Research initiative, one key component of the ONR THINICE program was to advance knowledge on Arctic cyclone coupling with the ocean surface, its ice cover, and understand how such coupling can lead to rapid ice loss. Leading up to the primary field campaign in August 2022, a pilot field campaign from 19 August to 13 September 2021 focused in Utqiagvik, Alaska and Longyearbyen, Svalbard was carried out. This period was marked by frequent Arctic cyclones, periods of strong low-level winds, and stints of extreme short-term Beaufort Sea ice area losses. Cyclones traversed these waters much more frequently than usual during this 26-day period, but did not exhibit extreme central pressures indicative of high intensity and impactful storms. Using ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis fields, CERES and AIRS surface flux retrievals, and in situ sensor data collected from ice-tethered profilers and ice mass balance buoys, we highlight air-sea-ice interactions in the Beaufort Sea during and between these cyclones leading up to extreme ice loss events. Our case study analysis is aimed at understanding how Arctic cyclones, including air-sea interactions prompted by their passage over the marginal ice zone, influence the end-of-summer ice conditions and ice loss events. This study provides an example where frequent, yet weak storms drive rather large marginal sea-scale losses albeit with heterogenous sea ice effects at local scales.

Ballinger, Thomas [International Arctic Research C↗

Collaborative Research: Understanding air‐sea feedbacks to the MJO through process evaluation of observations and E3SM experiments (Final Technical Report)

This project explored the role of tropical oceans in regulating cloud populations within the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO)–a large-scale tropical weather disturbance that influences extreme weather events across the globe by affecting the position of the jet stream and patterns of moisture transport. Our project sought to 1) document ocean feedback strength to the MJO in climate models, 2) understand how air-sea interactions affect the intensity, organization, and propagation of MJO convection, 3) utilize existing observations to identify sources of model bias for tropical air-sea interactions, and 4) better understand the effects of slow and fast ocean variability on MJO cloudiness. We found that transfers of heat and moisture across the air-sea interface (i.e., surface fluxes) in most climate models are over-supportive in maintaining MJO convection and under-supportive in propagating MJO convection. This can lead to misrepresentations in the frequency of extreme weather events across the globe through erroneous MJO feedbacks to jet stream position and moisture transport. Furthermore, using observations collected by ocean moorings across the tropical oceans, we showed that most models greatly overestimate surface evaporation in the subtropics, and that this bias is likely one contributor to a pervasive bias among climate models in their ability to simulate the mean state of rainfall over the tropical oceans (i.e., the “double ITCZ bias”). Replacing the default surface flux algorithm in two climate models with a state-of-the-art surface flux algorithm modestly reduced the double ITCZ bias in those models. Our work produced two model diagnostics packages that are now publicly available through DOE and NOAA model diagnostics archives. The first, the Analysis of Scales of Precipitation (ASoP) diagnoses scales of precipitation variability across space and time, with temporal resolution as fine as the model integration timestep. The second, the air-sea flux diagnostic diagnoses model surface fluxes and allows direct comparison of model fluxes to observations without having to recompute fluxes using model output and a state-of-the-art flux algorithm. These diagnostics, which were developed using climate models, can be readily applied to regional and global forecast model output to improve forecasts for the benefit of society.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Sea surface warming and ocean-to-atmosphere feedback driven by large-scale offshore wind farms under seasonally stratified conditions

Offshore wind farms may induce changes in the upper ocean and near-surface atmosphere through coupled ocean-atmosphere feedbacks. Yet, the role of air-sea interactions mediated by offshore wind farms remains poorly understood. Using fully coupled ocean-atmosphere-wave model simulations for seasonally stratified conditions along the US East Coast, we show that simulated cumulative reductions in wind stress due to large-scale wind farm clusters lead to sea surface warming of 0.3° to 0.4°C and a shallower mixed layer. This warming drives upward heat fluxes, destabilizing the atmospheric boundary layer and enhancing wind stress, which partially offsets wake-induced wind deficits. These wake-ocean interactions influence near-surface meteorology and air-sea fluxes, suggesting that a coupled modeling approach may be necessary for assessing potential oceanographic impacts of offshore wind developments. However, ocean coupling exerts limited influence on winds at turbine-relevant heights or within downstream wakes, resulting in minimal impact on long-term energy. These findings suggest that models without ocean coupling may be adequate for wind energy applications.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Improving High Resolution Offshore Wind Resource Assessments and Forecasts using Observations in the MA/RI Lease Areas

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3) sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL). WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high use coastal zone, using a 3-D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the MABL over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large barge platform. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and sub-mesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed, however the project was terminated prior to the completion of the field observational period and the analysis period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Response of marine post-frontal clouds to Gulf Stream variability

Understanding how Gulf Stream variation influences cloud morphology is critical for evaluating cloud feedback in the western North Atlantic Ocean and beyond, where mesoscale air-sea interactions dominate. This study investigates the impact of altered mean sea surface temperature (SST) and SST gradients on post-frontal cloud characteristics during cold-air outbreaks, using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Three sensitivity experiments are conducted: a control simulation (default SST), Plus4 (uniform SST increase of 4 K), and Gradplus (SST gradient enhanced by 25 %, centered around mean SST). Results reveal distinctly different responses in boundary layer dynamics and cloud macro-physics. In Plus4, a warmer and moister boundary layer reduces total cloud cover but promotes larger cloud sizes and elongated cloud streets, with diminished liquid water and enhanced ice-phase hydrometeors. Conversely, Gradplus amplifies impacts in the upwind colder SST regions, yielding a drier, colder boundary layer, weaker energy transport, and higher liquid water path but reduced ice water content and cloud lines. Tracer analysis highlights that SST modifications alter airmass sources near cloud tops due to the entrainment of ambient air, with Plus4 amplifying boundary layer contributions to cloud-top regions. These findings underscore the spatially varying effects of SST gradients and mean SST on cloud organization and microphysics, emphasizing the need to resolve ocean-atmosphere coupling in global models to improve the prediction of marine cloud feedback under warming scenarios.

AIR-SEA INTERACTION↗

Drivers of coupled climate model biases in representing Labrador Sea convection

Abstract This study investigates the representation of ocean convection in the Labrador Sea in seven Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and 6 datasets. The relative role of the oceanic and atmospheric biases in the subpolar North Atlantic gyre are explored using regional ocean simulations where the atmospheric forcing or the ocean initial and boundary conditions are replaced by reanalysis data in the absence of interactive air-sea coupling. Commonalities and differences among model behaviors are discussed with the objective of finding a pathway forward to improve the representation of the ocean mean state and variability in a region of fundamental importance for climate variability and change. Results highlight that an improved representation of ocean stratification in the North Atlantic subpolar gyre is urgently needed to constrain future climate change projections. While improving the ocean model resolution in the North Atlantic alone may contribute a better representation of both boundary currents and propagation of heat and freshwater anomalies into the Labrador Sea, it may not be sufficient. Addressing the atmospheric heat flux bias with better resolution in the atmosphere and land topography may allow for deep convection to occur in the Labrador Sea in some of the models that miss it entirely, but the greatest priority remains improving the representation of ocean stratification.

Liu, Guangpeng↗

Direct Observations of Surface Fluxes and Air‐Sea Exchange Coefficients in Low Winds Using a Small Uncrewed Aircraft System

In the marine boundary layer, the exchange of momentum, heat, and moisture occurs between the atmosphere and ocean. Since it is too dangerous for a crewed aircraft to fly close to the ocean surface to directly obtain these measurements, a sUAS (small Uncrewed Aircraft System) is one of the only viable options. On 24 March 2023 a Black Swift Technologies S0 sUAS was deployed from the NOAA P-3 on a calm clear day off the west coast of Florida. For 23 min at the end of the mission, the sUAS flew 8 straight line legs with an average length of 2.15 km, at roughly 10 m above the ocean surface, with wind speeds between 3.0 and 4.5 m s −1 . For the first time over the open ocean using a sUAS, the 4-Hz wind and thermodynamic data was used to calculate surface momentum flux, sensible heat flux, and latent flux using both direct covariance methods and the bulk aerodynamic formulas. Since all the flux quantities can be found using both direct and indirect methods, we are able to calculate the exchange coefficients of momentum flux (C D ), latent heat flux (C E ), and sensible heat flux (C H ) with results that are generally in good agreement with previous studies over the same wind speed range. This study demonstrates the ability of sUAS to measure air-sea interactions. Future intention is to use sUAS to obtain similar measurements in high wind events such as hurricanes which could better help understand hurricane intensification and improve model physics.

Deloach, Christopher J. [Embry-Riddle Aeronautical↗

Improving Process Level Understanding of Boundary Layer Winds over the Northeast U.S. Shelf: The Third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3)

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3), a U.S. Department of Energy and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration sponsored investigation, sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the marine atmospheric boundary layer. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and submesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high-use coastal zone, using a 3D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the marine atmospheric boundary layer over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large autonomous barge platform. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed that are being evaluated within regional coupled and uncoupled modeling systems, including the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's foundational High-Resolution Rapid Refresh forecast model.

Kirincich, Anthony↗

Mantaray: A Rust Package for Ray Tracing Ocean Surface Gravity Waves

Ocean surface gravity waves are an important component of air-sea interaction, influencing energy, momentum, and gas exchanges across the ocean-atmosphere interface. In specific applications such as refraction by ocean currents or bathymetry, ray tracing provides a computationally efficient way to gain insight into wave propagation. In this paper, we introduce Mantaray, an open-source software package implemented in Rust, with a Python interface, that solves the ray equations for ocean surface gravity waves. Mantaray is designed for performance, robustness, and ease of use. The package is modular to facilitate further development and can currently be applied to both idealized and realistic wave propagation problems (Fig. 1).

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Mid-Atlantic Turbulence Intensity Model Data

The dataset is a subset of simulations carried out for the mid-Atlantic region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles near the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing. Simulations are performed from February through June in 2020 and output every 10 minutes, which permits comparison with corresponding lidar observations.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Mid-Atlantic Turbulence Intensity Data in Observational Space

The dataset archives observed and model-simulated turbulence intensity and meteorological profiles and timeseries at the Air-Sea Interaction Tower (ASIT) of Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution’s Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO). The observational data were measured by lidar and buoy deployed at ASIT. The simulated profiles and timeseries data are interpolated in time and/or space according to observations. Simulations were carried out for the mid-Atlantic region using the revised Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.2 that incorporates the implementation of online turbulence intensity (TI) calculations (Tai et al. 2023). The simulated atmospheric profiles at the Shell Exploration and Production Corporation's Tension Leg Platforms Ursa and Mars are archived. Physics parameterizations chosen for the simulations include the Thompson microphysics parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Nakanishi Niino (MYNN) boundary layer parameterization, Mellor-Yamada-Janjic surface layer parameterization, Unified Noah land-surface parameterization, and the RRTMG longwave and shortwave radiation parameterization. Initial and boundary conditions are taken from NOAA’s High-Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR) product. The JPL 0.01-degree Level 4 Multiscale Ultrahigh Resolution (MUR) Global Foundation Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Analysis (V4.1) data are used as the model’s SST forcing.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Observations of Coastal Wind Momentum Flux: Dependence on Fetch and Waves with Comparisons to COARE

Here, using observations from the Martha’s Vineyard Coastal Observatory, this paper investigates how momentum flux in the marine atmospheric surface layer over the coastal ocean varies with fetch, wave age, and wave slope and assesses the performance of the COARE 3.5 bulk parameterization. Long-fetch (at least 300 km) and short-fetch (3–6 km away from land) conditions have very similar momentum flux, with the latter being just 15% higher. The COARE 3.5 wind speed–dependent formulation closely matches the observations. The sea state dependence of wave age and wave slope is analyzed by considering both peak frequency and mean frequency in a wave spectrum. The slope of regression lines between normalized roughness and wave age is sensitive to wind speed ranges and the scatter of momentum flux, potentially explaining why earlier studies did not find a universal formula to characterize the wave dependence. Although the observed momentum flux exhibits an obvious dependence on wave age, a robust quadratic fit between momentum flux and the 10-m neutral wind speed exists only for young waves. For the short-fetch conditions, the momentum flux does not increase as wave slope increases. This may be because waves generated by local wind are still weak and swell that propagates from other areas dominates the wave spectra. In other words, the wave slope computed by considering the spectra does not properly reflect the local wind–wave interaction.

Air-sea interaction↗

Unprecedented Beaufort Sea ice loss in late summer 2021 and its relationship to an extended period of unusually stormy weather

Previous case studies have linked cyclone-induced atmospheric forcing and/or upper-ocean processes to notable Arctic sea ice loss events in the summers of 2012 and 2016. This study examines a more recent and noteworthy case in late summer 2021 in which substantial sea ice loss followed a period of surface meteorological extremes in the Beaufort Sea region of the Arctic. We focus on the period from mid-August to mid-September 2021 that coincided with the Office of Naval Research THINICE Pilot Field Campaign and investigate stormy and windy conditions with respect to air-sea processes impacting sea ice conditions. We find that during the stormy first half of the campaign, cyclone-induced energy fluxes into the marginal ice zone and surrounding waters preconditioned the ice pack for more rapid melt later in the campaign. The second half of the campaign, in contrast, was marked by non-cyclone wind events that enhanced turbulent (namely sensible) heat fluxes into the ice and upper ocean that increased melt. Moreover, this latter period had enhanced advection of the Beaufort Sea ice pack into above-freezing waters, increasing bottom melt to >1 cm d −1 over the remainder of the campaign. While findings are shown to vary by surface type and at relatively small (i.e. ice-floe) scales, insights are offered on the roles of late summer coupled processes on rapid ice loss events in today’s Arctic environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Effects of Surface Turbulence Flux Parameterizations on the MJO: The Role of Ocean Surface Waves

This study investigates the sensitivity of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) to changes to the bulk flux parameterization and the role of ocean surface waves in air–sea coupling using a fully coupled ocean–atmosphere–wave model. The atmospheric and ocean model components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are coupled to a spectral wave model, WAVEWATCH III (WW3). Two experiments with wind speed–dependent bulk algorithms (NCAR and COARE3.0a) and one experiment with wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0a-WAV) were conducted. We modify COARE3.0a to include surface roughness calculated within WW3 and also account for the buffering effect of waves on the relative difference between air-side and ocean-side momentum flux. Differences in surface fluxes, primarily caused by discrepancies in drag coefficients, result in significant differences in MJO’s properties. While COARE3.0a has better convection–circulation coupling than NCAR, it exhibits anomalous MJO convection east of the date line. The wave-state-dependent flux (COR3.0-WAV) improves the MJO representation over the default COARE3.0 algorithm. Strong easterlies over the Pacific Ocean in COARE3.0a enhance the latent heat flux (LHFLX). This is responsible for the anomalous MJO propagation after the date line. In COR3.0a-WAV, waves reduce the anomalous easterlies, leading to a decrease in LHFLX and MJO dissipation after the date line. These findings highlight the role of surface fluxes in MJO simulation fidelity. Most importantly, we show that the proper treatment of wave-induced effects in bulk flux parameterization improves the simulation of coupled climate variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Large-Eddy Simulation Study in WRF on Wind over Broadband Waves of Different Directions and Spreading Widths

We use the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model coupled with moving waves to conduct large-eddy simulations (LESs) of wind over broadband waves with different propagating directions and spreading widths. Our results show that wind-opposing waves can double the form drag, and the wave propagating direction affects the mean wind velocity, velocity variances, and pressure stress. On the other hand, waves with wider spread tend to reduce the form drag in the streamwise direction. Results further indicate that the wave direction can impact the bulk drag coefficient by as much as 25%, while the wave directional spreading width can change it by 5%. Based on our wave-phase-resolved simulations, we demonstrate that the parameterization of sea surface roughness is significantly influenced by the direction of wave propagation relative to the wind, a factor that the commonly used Charnock relation does not account for.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

E3SM‐Arctic: Regionally Refined Coupled Model for Advanced Understanding of Arctic Systems Interactions

Earth system models are essential tools for climate projections, but coarse resolutions limit regional accuracy, especially in the Arctic. Regionally refined meshes (RRMs) enhance resolution in key areas while maintaining computational efficiency. This paper provides an overview of the United States (U.S.) Department of Energy's (DOE's) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2.1 with an Arctic RRM, hereafter referred to as E3SMv2.1-Arctic, for the atmosphere (25 km), land (25 km), and ocean/ice (10 km) components. We evaluate the atmospheric component and its interactions with land, ocean, and cryosphere by comparing the RRM (E3SM2.1-Arctic) historical simulations (1950–2014) with the uniform low-resolution (LR) counterpart, reanalysis products, and observational data sets. The RRM generally reduces biases in the LR model, improving simulations of Arctic large-scale mean fields, such as precipitation, atmospheric circulation, clouds, atmospheric river frequency, and sea ice thickness. However, it introduces a seasonally dependent surface air temperature bias, reducing the LR cold bias in summer but enhancing the LR warm bias in winter, which contributes to the underestimated winter sea ice area and volume. Radiative feedback analysis shows similar climate feedback strengths in both model configurations, with the RRM exhibiting a more positive surface albedo feedback and contributing to a stronger surface warming than LR. These findings underscore the importance of high-resolution modeling for advancing our understanding of Arctic climate changes and their broader global impacts, although some persistent biases appear to be independent of model resolution at 10–100 km scales.

Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM)↗

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) have ranked as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study we apply a fixed-constraint storyline approach that holds storm tracks and initial conditions constant to probe future TC intensity in the North Atlantic Basin. First, we simulate 618 historical TC events using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep-learning intensity model. Next, we apply warming signals derived from eight CMIP6 climate scenarios and rerun each event to explore how intensities respond across scenarios. Finally, we develop an interactive dashboard that allows users to explore individual storm simulations and the scenario-modified environmental drivers. Together, this dataset and tool provide a clear, illustrative way to investigate how TC intensity responds to changes in air-sea state.

Climate Change↗

Future North Atlantic tropical cyclone intensities in thermodynamically modified historical environments

Tropical cyclones (TCs) rank as the deadliest and most financially crippling natural disasters in the United States for the last half-century. It is imperative to assess potential shifts in TC intensity within the paradigm of an evolving climate. In this study, we have modeled the intensities of 620 historical TC events in the North Atlantic Basin using the Risk Analysis Framework for Tropical Cyclones (RAFT)'s deep learning intensity model. By applying a thermodynamic warming signal extrapolated from Global Climate Models, we rerun historical events under eight different future climate scenarios, providing a spectrum of potential TC intensity outcomes. One of the future simulations indicates a staggering 43% increase in the number of major hurricanes, underscoring the critical impact of climate change on TC intensity. Additionally, an interactive dashboard has been created to enable users to explore individual storm simulations and understand the influence of future climate signals on environmental conditions of TC development and resulting TC intensities. This dataset and the user-friendly tool offer invaluable resources for systematic exploration of the discrete effects that changes in the air-sea thermodynamic state have on the intensities of TCs.

Climate Change↗