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DOE OSTI2022

The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions

In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a preferred state characterized by systematic error, or bias. Bias and drift are among the greatest challenges facing initialized prediction today. Differences in trends between initial states and drifted states, combined with bias and drift, introduce complexities in calculating anomalies to assess skill of initialized predictions. We examine several methods of calculating anomalies using the Decadal Prediction Large Ensemble (DPLE) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) initialized hindcasts and focus on Pacific and Atlantic SSTs to illustrate issues with anomaly calculations. Three methods of computing anomalies, one as differences from a long term model climatology, another as bias-adjusted differences from the previous 15 year average from observations, and a third as differences from the previous 15 year average from the model, are contrasted and each is shown to have limitations. For the first, trends in bias and drift introduce higher skill estimates earlier and later in the hindcast period due to the trends that contribute to skill. For the second, higher skill can be introduced in situations where low frequency variability in the observations is large compared to the hindcasts on timescales greater than 15 years, while lower skill can result if the predicted signal is small and the bias-correction itself produces a transition of SST anomalies to the opposite sign of those that are observed. The third method has somewhat lower skill compared to each of the others, but has less difficulties with not only the long term trends in the model climatology, but also with the unrealistic situational skill from using observations as a reference. However, the first 15 years of the hindcast period cannot be evaluated due to having to wait to accumulate the previous 15 year model climatology before the method can be applied. Here, the IPO transition in the 2014–2016 time frame from negative to positive (predicted by Meehl et al. in in Nat Commun, 10.1038/NCOMMS11718, 2016) did indeed verify using all three methods, though each provides somewhat different skill values as a result of the respective limitations. There is no clear best method, as all are roughly comparable, and each has its own set of limitations and caveats. However, all three methods show generally higher overall skill in the AMO region compared to the IPO region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Standardising the “Gregory method” for calculating equilibrium climate sensitivity

The equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) – the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO 2 – is a high-profile metric for quantifying the Earth system's response to human-induced climate change. A widely applied approach to estimating the ECS is the “Gregory method” (Gregory et al., 2004), which uses an ordinary least squares (OLS) regression between the net radiative flux, N, and surface air temperature anomalies, ΔT, from a 150 year experiment in which atmospheric CO 2 concentrations are quadrupled. The ECS is determined by extrapolating the linear fit to N=0, i.e. the ΔT-intercept, indicating the point at which the system is back in equilibrium. This method has been used to compare ECS estimates across the CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensembles and will likely be a key diagnostic for CMIP7. Despite its widespread application, there is little consistency or transparency between studies in how the climate model data is processed prior to the regression, leading to potential discrepancies in ECS estimates. We identify 32 alternative data processing pathways, varying by differences in global mean weighting, net radiative flux variable, anomaly calculation method, and linear regression fit. Using 44 CMIP6 models, we systematically assess the impact of these choices on ECS estimates and calculate uncertainty ranges using two bootstrap approaches. While the inter-model ECS range is insensitive to the data processing pathway, individual outlier models exhibit notable differences. Approximating a model's native grid cell area (if irregular) with cosine of the latitude can decrease the ECS by 11 %, the choice of N-variable can change the ECS by 6 %, and some anomaly calculation methods can introduce spurious temporal correlations in the processed data. Beyond data processing choices, we also evaluate an alternative linear regression method – total least squares (TLS) – which has a more statistically robust basis than OLS. However, for consistency with previous literature, and given TLS may reduce the ECS compared to OLS (by up to 24 %), thereby making a known bias in the Gregory method worse, we do not feel there is sufficient clarity to recommend a transition to TLS in all cases. To improve reproducibility and comparability in future studies, we recommend a standardised Gregory method: weighting the global mean by cell area, using the top of the atmosphere (as opposed to the top of model) N-variable, and calculating anomalies by first applying a rolling average to the preindustrial control timeseries then subtracting from the raw CO 2 quadrupling experiment. This approach accounts for model drift while reducing noise in the data to best meet the pre-conditions of the linear regression. While CMIP6 results of the multi-model mean ECS appear insensitive to these processing choices, similar assumptions may not hold for CMIP7, underscoring the need for standardised data preparation in future climate sensitivity assessments.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of CloudSat Radiative Kernels Using ARM and CERES Observations and ERA5 Reanalysis

Despite the widespread use of the radiative kernel technique for studying radiative feedbacks and radiative forcings, there has not been any systematic, observation-based validation of the radiative kernel method. Here, we utilize observed and reanalyzed radiative fluxes and atmospheric profiles from the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program and ERA5 reanalysis to assess a set of observation-based radiative kernels from CloudSat for six ARM sites. The CloudSat radiative kernels, convoluted with the ERA5 state variables, can almost perfectly reconstruct the monthly anomalies of shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiative fluxes in ERA5 at the surface (SFC) and top-of-atmosphere (TOA) with correlations significantly being greater than 0.95. The biases of kernel-estimated flux anomalies calculated using the ARM-observed state variables can be more than twice as large when compared with the ARM-observed surface flux anomalies and Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System (CERES) observed anomalies at the TOA. Generally, clouds contribute to most (>60%) of the variance of flux anomalies at Southern Great Plain (SGP), Tropical Western Pacific (TWP), and Eastern North Atlantic (ENA), and surface albedo dominates (>69%) the variance of SW flux anomalies at North Slope of Alaska (NSA). Furthermore, the radiative kernels exhibit the lowest correlation (r ~ [0.55,0.85]) when reconstructing SFC LW flux anomalies at SGP, TWP, and ENA, whose biases are related to the possibility that the kernels may not fully capture the characteristics associated with MJO and ENSO at TWP and the presence of clouds at SGP and ENA.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Automated Scoring of Morphological Changes in Images of Pentaerythritol Tetranitrate

Recent advances in characterization techniques that generate large datasets of material microstructure images require robust, automated image-processing. We applied an unsupervised anomaly detection method called feature anomaly detection system (FADS) to automatically detect and quantify microstructure changes in images of the explosive pentaerythritol tetranitrate (PETN) aged at various temperatures. We demonstrated the FADS approach on two-dimensional images extracted from computed tomography scans, but the same technique can be readily applied to other imaging modalities. FADS calculates anomaly scores on the basis of differences in filter activations of nominal and test data in pretrained convolutional neural networks. The FADS scores successfully differentiated between pristine PETN and PETN aged at a temperature where material coarsening occurred. Morphological metric analysis of segmented images verified observed trends in FADS scores as a function of aging temperature and aging time, specifically by calculating volume fractions, specific boundary lengths, two-point correlation functions, and local thicknesses. Here, the FADS technique has two important advantages compared to traditional morphological analysis: First, it uses grayscale images as input, rather than images that are segmented to separate the appropriate phases; and second, FADS scores capture any type of changes among image sets, rather than requiring prior knowledge or selection of a relevant set of metrics.

Accelerated aging↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evolution of the Electronic and Excitonic Properties in 2D Ruddlesden–Popper Perovskites Induced by Bifunctional Ligands

2D Ruddlesden–Popper metal‐halide perovskites exhibit structural diversity due to a variety of choices of organic ligands. Incorporating bifunctional ligands in such materials is particularly intriguing since it can result in novel electronic properties and functions. However, an in‐depth understanding of the effects of bifunctional ligands on perovskite structures and, consequently, their electronic and excitonic properties, is still lacking. Here, in this work, n = 1 2D perovskites built with organic ligands containing ─CN, ─OH, ─COOH, ─phenyl (Ph), and ─CH 3 functional groups are investigated using ultraviolet and inverse photoemission spectroscopies, density functional theory calculations, and tight‐binding model analyses. The experimentally determined electronic gaps of the ─CN, ─COOH, ─Ph, and ─CH 3 based perovskites exhibit a strong correlation with the in‐plane Pb─I─Pb bond angle, while the ─OH based perovskite deviates from the linear trend. Based on the band structure calculations, this anomaly is attributed to the out‐of‐plane dispersion, caused predominantly by significant interlayer electronic coupling that is present in ─OH based perovskites. These results highlight the complex and diverse impacts of organic ligands on electronic properties, especially in terms of the involvement of strong interlayer electronic coupling. The impact of the bifunctional ligands on the evolution of the exciton binding energy is also addressed.

2D perovskites↗

DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years

Abstract It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology from which to compute the anomalies necessary to quantify the skill of the hindcasts when compared to observations. This limits the ability to experiment with case studies and other applications where only a few initial years are needed. Here we run a set of hindcasts with CESM1 and E3SMv1 using two different initialization methods for a limited set of start years and use the respective uninitialized free-running historical simulations to form the model climatologies. Since the drifts from the observed initial states in the hindcasts toward the uninitialized model state are large and rapid, after a few years the drifted initialized models approach the uninitialized model climatological errors. Therefore, hindcasts from the limited start years can use the uninitialized climatology to represent the drifted model states after about lead year 3, providing a means to compute forecast anomalies in the absence of a large hindcast sample. There is comparable skill for predicting spatial patterns of multi-year Pacific sea surface temperature anomalies in the domain of the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation using this method compared to the conventional methodology with a large hindcast data set, though there is a model dependence to the drifts in the two initialization methods.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Kohn anomalies and phonon anharmonicity in iridium

Elemental iridium presents surprising challenges for both inelastic neutron scattering (INS) and theoretical thermal transport calculations due to its high neutron absorption cross-section and strong electron-phonon interactions, respectively. Here, in this study, we overcome these challenges to measure temperature-dependent phonon dispersion curves, compare these with calculations based on density functional theory (DFT), and ultimately examine the electron-phonon limited transport behaviors of this material. Our DFT calculations demonstrate Kohn anomalies, near the 𝐾 point of the iridium Brillouin zone, indicating coupling between electrons and phonons. Strong electron-phonon coupling can compete with anharmonic effects to determine electrical and thermal transport behaviors and make the Kohn anomalies challenging to observe. Nonetheless, our INS measurements map these anomalies and other dispersion features over the Brillouin zone from 100 to 700 K. These measurements also uncover unexpectedly large mode specific Grüneisen parameters obtained from the temperature-dependent phonon energies, highlighting strong anharmonicity in iridium. DFT-based Boltzmann transport calculations demonstrate how anharmonicity and electron-phonon couplings determine electronic and lattice transport behaviors. Furthermore, we correlate the Kohn anomalies with calculated electron-phonon nesting functions, Fermi surfaces, and DFT-derived coupling strengths. This study provides detailed insights into the temperature-dependent mode-resolved lattice dynamics and anharmonicity, transport behavior, and electron-phonon interactions.

DFT↗

DOE OSTI2023

Loop current fluctuations and quantum critical transport

We study electrical transport at quantum critical points (QCPs) associated with loop current ordering in a metal, focusing specifically on models of the “Hertz-Millis” type. At the infrared (IR) fixed point and in the absence of disorder, the simplest such models have infinite DC conductivity and zero incoherent conductivity at nonzero frequencies. However, we find that a particular deformation, involving N N species of bosons and fermions with random couplings in flavor space, admits a finite incoherent, frequency-dependent conductivity at the IR fixed point, \sigma(\omega>0)\sim\omega^{-2/z} σ ( ω > 0 ) ∼ ω − 2 / z , where z z is the boson dynamical exponent. Leveraging the non-perturbative structure of quantum anomalies, we develop a powerful calculational method for transport. The resulting "anomaly-assisted large N N expansion" allows us to extract the conductivity systematically. Although our results imply that such random-flavor models are problematic as a description of the physical N = 1 N = 1 system, they serve to illustrate some general conditions for quantum critical transport as well as the anomaly-assisted calculational methods. In addition, we revisit an old result that irrelevant operators generate a frequency-dependent conductivity, \sigma(\omega>0) \sim \omega^{-2(z-2)/z} σ ( ω > 0 ) ∼ ω − 2 ( z − 2 ) / z , in problems of this kind. We show explicitly, within the scope of the original calculation, that this result does not hold for any order parameter.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2024

Corrected calculation for the non-local solution to the g − 2 anomaly and novel results in non-local QED

We provide the corrected calculation of the (g − 2) μ in non-local QED previously done in the literature. In specific, we show the proper technique for calculating loops in non-local QED and use it to find the form factors F 1 (q 2 ) and F 2 (q 2 ) in non-local QED. We also utilize this technique to calculate some novel results in non-local QED, including calculating the correction to the photon self-energy, the modification to the classical Coulomb potential, the modification to the energy levels of the hydrogen atom, and the contribution to the Lamb shift. We also discuss charge dequantization through non-locality, and show that the experimental bounds on the electric charge on Dirac neutrinos, translate into strong flavor-dependent bounds on the scale on non-locality that range between 10 5 −10 10 TeV. We also discuss the inconsistencies of unrenormalized non-local Quantum Field Theories (QFTs) and the need for renormalizing them, even when they are free from UV divergences.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Isomeric yield ratios of fission products: A missing piece in reactor antineutrino summation calculations

The calculation of the spectrum of antineutrinos ($\bar{v}_e$) from a reactor is a complicated problem requiring several nuclear data and physics inputs. Many of these have been investigated thoroughly to improve calculations and properly account for uncertainties. One input which has heretofore escaped consideration is the fission-yield distribution between ground and isomeric states. Here, in this work, we explore the effect of incorporating newly evaluated isomeric yield ratios (IYR) for 43 fission products into summation calculations and identify the disproportionate importance of certain isotopes, particularly at higher energies. Our analysis indicates that updated IYRs contribute to a significant increase in the $\bar{v}_e$ spectrum around and above 7 MeV, with increases of more than 50% at higher energies. Through a detailed sensitivity study, we highlight a number of isotopes for which the IYR has a substantial effect on the $\bar{v}_e$ spectrum. This work stresses the critical role of isomeric yields in calculations of reactor $\bar{v}_e$ spectra and points to the necessity for their accurate experimental determination, especially for key fission products, in order to refine our understanding and address the observed anomalies between measured and calculated $\bar{v}_e$ spectra.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Isomeric Yield Ratios of fission products: a missing piece in reactor antineutrino summation calculations

The calculation of the spectrum of antineutrinos ( $\overline{V}$ e ) from a reactor is a complicated problem requiring several nuclear data and physics inputs. Many of these have been investigated thoroughly to improve calculations and properly account for uncertainties. One input which has heretofore escaped consideration is the fission yield distribution between ground and isomeric states. In this work, we explore the effect of incorporating newly evaluated isomeric yield ratios (IYR) for 43 fission products into summation calculations and identify the disproportionate importance of certain isotopes, particularly at higher energies. Our analysis indicates that updated IYRs contribute to a significant increase in the $\overline{V}$ e spectrum around and above 7 MeV, with increases of more than 50% at higher energies. Through a detailed sensitivity study, we highlight a number of isotopes for which the IYR has a substantial effect on the $\overline{V}$ e spectrum. This work stresses the critical role of isomeric yields in calculations of reactor $\overline{V}$ e spectra and points to the necessity for their accurate experimental determination, especially for key fission products, in order to refine our understanding and address the observed anomalies between measured and calculated $\overline{V}$ e spectra.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermoelastic Anomaly of Iron Carbonitride Across the Spin Transition and Implications for Planetary Cores

Carbon and nitrogen are considered as candidate light elements present in planetary cores. However, there is limited understanding regarding the structure and physical properties of Fe-C-N alloys under extreme conditions. Here diamond anvil cell experiments were conducted, revealing the stability of hexagonal-structured Fe 7 (N 0.75 C 0.25 ) 3 up to 120 GPa and 2100 K, without undergoing any structural transformation or dissociation. Notably, the thermal expansion coefficient and Grüneisen parameter of the alloy exhibit a collapse at 55–70 GPa. First-principles calculations suggest that such anomaly is associated with the spin transition of iron within Fe 7 (N 0.75 C 0.25 ) 3 . Our modeling indicates that the presence of ∼1.0 wt% carbon and nitrogen in liquid iron contributes to 9–12% of the density deficit of the Earth's outer core. The thermoelastic anomaly of the Fe-C-N alloy across the spin transition is likely to affect the density and seismic velocity profiles of (C,N)-rich planetary cores, thereby influencing the dynamics of such cores.

Geology↗

DOE OSTI2021

Optimal interpolation of global dissolved oxygen: 1965–2015

Oxygen inventory of the global ocean has declined in recent decades potentially due to the warming-induced reduction in solubility as well as the circulation and biogeochemical changes associated with ocean warming and increasing stratification. Earth System Models predict continued oxygen decline for this century with profound impacts on marine ecosystem and fisheries. Observational constraint on the rate of oxygen loss is crucial for assessing the ability of models to accurately simulate these changes. There are only a few observational assessments of the global oceanic oxygen inventory reporting a range of oxygen loss. This study develops a gridded data set of dissolved oxygen for the global oceans using optimal interpolation method. The resulting gridded product includes full-depth map of dissolved oxygen as 5-year moving average from 1965 to 2015 with uncertainty estimates. The uncertainty can come from unresolved small-scale and high-frequency variability and mapping errors. The multi-decadal trend of global dissolved oxygen is in the range of -281 to -373 Tmol/decade. This estimate is more conservative than previous works. In this study, the grid points far from the observations are essentially set equal to zero anomaly from the climatology. Calculating global inventory with this approach produces a relatively conservative estimate; thus, the results from this study likely provide a useful lower bound estimate of the global oxygen loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Cluster Expansion Analysis of Atomic Order in Li-Ion Battery Cathode Material LiCo y Ni 1-y O 2

A modified cluster-expansion treatment was developed recently to analyze atomic order in LiCo y Ni 1-y O 2 , a model cathode material for Li-ion batteries. In this treatment, referred to as a “spin-atom” cluster expansion, the occupant of a lattice site is identified by its spin state as well as its atomic species. Further, Effective Cluster Interaction (ECI) coefficients are derived from a large training data set (i.e., the set of atomic arrangements for which DFT calculations are performed) which is filtered by an anomaly detection algorithm to eliminate poorly converged DFT calculations. The cluster expansion incorporates Li-Ni (LN) exchange as well as intralayer Co-Ni (CN) exchange. Monte Carlo simulations based on the cluster expansion were applied to the Ni-rich part of the phase diagram. The simulations predict a miscibility gap between y = 0.05 and y = 0.65.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Anomalies in string-inspired nonlocal extensions of QED

We investigate anomalies in the class of nonlocal field theories that have been proposed as an ultraviolet completion of four-dimensional quantum field theory with generalizing the kinetic energy operators to an infinite series of higher derivatives inspired by the string field theory and ghost-free nonlocal approaches to quantum gravity. We explicitly calculate the vector and chiral anomalies in a string-inspired nonlocal extension of QED. We show that the vector anomaly vanishes as required by gauge invariance and the Ward identity. On the other hand, although the chiral anomaly vanishes to the leading order with massless fermions, it nonetheless does not vanish with the massive fermions and we calculate it to the leading order in the scale of nonlocality. We also calculate the nonlocal vector and axial currents explicitly and present an illustrative example by applying our results to the decay of π 0 → γ γ . Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Abu-Ajamieh, Fayez↗

DOE OSTI2020

Fermilab Muon $g - 2$ experiment: Current status

The Muon $g$ - 2 experiment at Fermilab (E989) is currently measuring the muon magnetic anomaly with a goal precision of 140 part per billion, which will be a fourfold precision improvement over the current best measurement by the previous Muon $g$ -2 experiment at the Brookhaven Laboratory (BNL). The BNL-measured value of the muon magnetic anomaly and the corresponding Standard Model (SM) best estimate differ by more than three standard deviation which inspired the current measurement as well as a theoretical drive for a significantly more precise calculation of the muon magnetic anomaly to rule out (or establish) statistical fluctuation as the origin of such a huge discrepancy. Stable central values along with 4-fold precision improvements in both theoretical (SM) and experimental fronts, would imply a ~ 7σ discrepancy and that will be a clear hint of the physics beyond the Standard Model. Such an unprecedented precision demands state-of-the-art technological improvements in all involved components to keep the systematic uncertainty below 70 ppb. This paper reports the current status of the E989 experiment after two years of data acquisition.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Trace anomaly form factors from lattice QCD

The hadron mass can be obtained through the calculation of the trace of the energy-momentum tensor in the hadron which includes the trace anomaly and sigma terms. The anomaly due to conformal symmetry breaking is believed to be an important ingredient for hadron mass generation and confinement. In this work, we will present the calculation of the glue part of the trace anomaly form factors of the pion up to Q 2 ∼ 4.3 GeV 2 and the nucleon up to Q 2 ∼ 1 GeV 2 . The calculations are performed on a domain wall fermion ensemble with overlap valence quarks at seven valence pion masses varying from ∼ 250 to ∼ 540 MeV , including the unitary point ∼ 340 MeV . We calculate the radius of the glue trace anomaly for the pion and the nucleon from the z expansion. By performing a two-dimensional Fourier transform on the glue trace anomaly form factors in the infinite momentum frame with no energy transfer, we also obtain their spatial distributions for several valence quark masses. The results are qualitatively extrapolated to the physical valence pion mass with systematic errors from the unphysical sea quark mass, discretization effects in the renormalization sum rule, and finite-volume effects to be addressed in the future. We find the pion’s form factor changes sign, as does its spatial distribution, for light quark masses. This explains how the trace anomaly contribution to the pion mass approaches zero toward the chiral limit. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Nuclear Data to Reduce Uncertainties in Reactor Antineutrino Measurements

The large quantities of antineutrinos produced through the decay of fission fragments in nuclear reactors provide an opportunity to study the properties of these particles and investigate their use in reactor monitoring. The reactor antineutrino spectra are measured using specialized, large area detectors that detect antineutrinos through inverse beta decay, electron elastic scattering, or coherent elastic neutrino nucleus scattering; although, inverse beta decay is the only demonstrated method so far. Reactor monitoring takes advantage of the differences in the antineutrino yield and spectra resulting from uranium and plutonium fission providing an opportunity to estimate the fissile material composition in the reactor. Recent experiments reveal a deviation between the measured and calculated antineutrino flux and spectra (the reactor anomaly) indicating either the existence of yet undiscovered neutrino physics, uncertainties in the reactor source term calculation, incorrect nuclear data, or a combination of all three. To address the nuclear data that impact the antineutrino spectrum calculations and measurements, an international group of over 180 experts in antineutrino physics, reactor analysis, detector development, and nuclear data came together during the Workshop on Nuclear Data for Reactor Antineutrino Measurements (WoNDRAM) to discuss nuclear data needs and achieve concordance on a set of recommended priorities for nuclear data improvements. Three topical sessions focused on the reactor source term, the antineutrino spectrum, and the detector response, provided a forum to gain consensus amongst the participants on the most important data improvements to address two goals: 1) understand the reactor anomaly and 2) improve the ability to monitor reactors using antineutrinos. This report summarizes the outcomes of the workshop discussions and the recommendations for nuclear data efforts that reduce reactor antineutrino measurement uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗