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At least 19 records

Carbon Outgassing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current Is Supported by Ekman Transport From the Sea Ice Zone in an Observation‐Based Seasonal Mixed‐Layer Budget

Despite its importance for the global cycling of carbon, there are still large gaps in our understanding of the processes driving annual and seasonal carbon fluxes in the high-latitude Southern Ocean. This is due in part to a historical paucity of observations in this remote, turbulent, and seasonally ice-covered region. Here, we use autonomous biogeochemical float data spanning 6 full seasonal cycles and with circumpolar coverage of the Southern Ocean, complemented by atmospheric reanalysis, to construct a monthly climatology of the mixed layer budget of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). We investigate the processes that determine the annual mean and seasonal cycle of DIC fluxes in two different zones of the Southern Ocean—the Sea Ice Zone (SIZ) and Antarctic Southern Zone (ASZ). We find that, annually, mixing with carbon-rich waters at the base of the mixed layer supplies DIC which is, in the ASZ, either used for net biological production or outgassed to the atmosphere. In contrast, in the SIZ, where carbon outgassing and the biological pump are weaker, the surplus of DIC is instead advected northward to the ASZ. In other words, carbon outgassing in the southern Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), which has been attributed to remineralized carbon from deep water upwelled in the ACC, is also due to the wind-driven transport of DIC from the SIZ. These results stem from the first observation-based carbon budget of the circumpolar Southern Ocean and thus provide a useful benchmark to evaluate climate models, which have significant biases in this region.

Sauvé, Jade↗

A fast particle-based approach for calibrating a 3-D model of the Antarctic ice sheet

We consider the scientifically challenging and policy-relevant task of understanding the past and projecting the future dynamics of the Antarctic ice sheet. The Antarctic ice sheet has shown a highly nonlinear threshold response to past climate forcings. Triggering such a threshold response through anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions would drive drastic and potentially fast sea level rise with important implications for coastal flood risks. Previous studies have combined information from ice sheet models and observations to calibrate model parameters. These studies have broken important new ground but have either adopted simple ice sheet models or have limited the number of parameters to allow for the use of more complex models. These limitations are largely due to the computational challenges posed by calibration as models become more computationally intensive or when the number of parameters increases. Here, we propose a method to alleviate this problem: a fast sequential Monte Carlo method that takes advantage of the massive parallelization afforded by modern high-performance computing systems. We use simulated examples to demonstrate how our sample-based approach provides accurate approximations to the posterior distributions of the calibrated parameters. The drastic reduction in computational times enables us to provide new insights into important scientific questions, for example, the impact of Pliocene era data and prior parameter information on sea level projections. These studies would be computationally prohibitive with other computational approaches for calibration such as Markov chain Monte Carlo or emulation-based methods. We also find considerable differences in the distributions of sea level projections when we account for a larger number of uncertain parameters. For example, based on the same ice sheet model and data set, the 99th percentile of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in 2300 increases from 6.5 m to 13.1 m when we increase the number of calibrated parameters from three to 11. With previous calibration methods, it would be challenging to go beyond five parameters. Here, this work provides an important next step toward improving the uncertainty quantification of complex, computationally intensive and decision-relevant models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Influence of sea-ice anomalies on Antarctic precipitation using source attribution in the Community Earth System Model

Abstract. We conduct sensitivity experiments using a general circulation model that has an explicit water source tagging capability forced by prescribed composites of pre-industrial sea-ice concentrations (SICs) and corresponding sea surface temperatures (SSTs) to understand the impact of sea-ice anomalies on regional evaporation, moisture transport and source–receptor relationships for Antarctic precipitation in the absence of anthropogenic forcing. Surface sensible heat fluxes, evaporation and column-integrated water vapor are larger over Southern Ocean (SO) areas with lower SICs. Changes in Antarctic precipitation and its source attribution with SICs have a strong spatial variability. Among the tagged source regions, the Southern Ocean (south of 50° S) contributes the most (40 %) to the Antarctic total precipitation, followed by more northerly ocean basins, most notably the South Pacific Ocean (27%), southern Indian Ocean (16 %) and South Atlantic Ocean (11 %). Comparing two experiments prescribed with high and low pre-industrial SICs, respectively, the annual mean Antarctic precipitation is about 150 Gt yr-1 (or 6 %) more in the lower SIC case than in the higher SIC case. This difference is larger than the model-simulated interannual variability in Antarctic precipitation (99 Gt yr-1). The contrast in contribution from the Southern Ocean, 102 Gt yr-1, is even more significant compared to the interannual variability of 35 Gt yr-1 in Antarctic precipitation that originates from the Southern Ocean. The horizontal transport pathways from individual vapor source regions to Antarctica are largely determined by large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. Vapor from lower-latitude source regions takes elevated pathways to Antarctica. In contrast, vapor from the Southern Ocean moves southward within the lower troposphere to the Antarctic continent along moist isentropes that are largely shaped by local ambient conditions and coastal topography. This study also highlights the importance of atmospheric dynamics in affecting the thermodynamic impact of sea-ice anomalies associated with natural variability on Antarctic precipitation. Our analyses of the seasonal contrast in changes of basin-scale evaporation, moisture flux and precipitation suggest that the impact of SIC anomalies on regional Antarctic precipitation depends on dynamic changes that arise from SIC–SST perturbations along with internal variability. The latter appears to have a more significant effect on the moisture transport in austral winter than in summer.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Relative Importance of Antarctic Sea Ice Loss within the Response to Greenhouse Warming

Abstract The response to Antarctic sea ice loss within a coupled modeling framework is examined in comparison to the response to Arctic sea ice loss and within the context of general greenhouse warming. Sea ice loss responses are found to be linear (particularly in response to Antarctic or global sea ice loss) with respect to the degree of imposed perturbation and additive when perturbations are applied in hemispheres separately and concurrently. Globally, and in the tropical Pacific in particular, Antarctic sea ice loss plays a relatively larger role than Arctic sea ice loss in both the atmosphere and the ocean, within the parameters of our experiments. The pattern of response to Antarctic sea ice loss is also found to more closely resemble that of greenhouse warming, again particularly in the tropics. An extension to multiparameter pattern scaling is developed to include a scaling factor for Antarctic change in addition to those for tropical warming and Arctic sea ice loss. The decomposition is applied to the modeled response to Antarctic sea ice loss to break it down into component partial responses that scale with Antarctic, tropical, and Arctic changes. This reveals the aspects of the response that are directly related to Antarctic change, such as an equatorward intensification of tropical precipitation in the Northern Hemisphere, and those that are modified via the induced changes in the tropics and Arctic, such as Northern Hemisphere temperature change. With this, we hope to gain a deeper understanding of the role of each of these changes for the development of physical mechanisms of the response.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

AWARE: The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment

The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) West Antarctic Radiation Experiment (AWARE) performed comprehensive meteorological and aerosol measurements and ground-based atmospheric remote sensing at two Antarctic stations using the most advanced instrumentation available. A suite of cloud research radars, lidars, spectral and broadband radiometers, aerosol chemical and microphysical sampling equipment, and meteorological instrumentation was deployed at McMurdo Station on Ross Island from December 2015 through December 2016. A smaller suite of radiometers and meteorological equipment, including radiosondes optimized for surface energy budget measurement, was deployed on the West Antarctic Ice Sheet between 4 December 2015 and 17 January 2016. AWARE provided Antarctic atmospheric data comparable to several well-instrumented high Arctic sites that have operated for many years and that reveal numerous contrasts with the Arctic in aerosol and cloud microphysical properties. These include persistent differences in liquid cloud occurrence, cloud height, and cloud thickness. Antarctic aerosol properties are also quite different from the Arctic in both seasonal cycle and composition, due to the continent’s isolation from lower latitudes by Southern Ocean storm tracks. Antarctic aerosol number and mass concentrations are not only non-negligible but perhaps play a more important role than previously recognized because of the higher sensitivities of clouds at the very low concentrations caused by the large-scale dynamical isolation. Antarctic aerosol chemical composition, particularly organic components, has implications for local cloud microphysics. The AWARE dataset, fully available online in the ARM Program data archive, offers numerous case studies for unique and rigorous evaluation of mixed-phase cloud parameterization in climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A symbiotic bacterium of Antarctic fish reveals environmental adaptability mechanisms and biosynthetic potential towards antibacterial and cytotoxic activities

Antarctic microbes are important agents for evolutionary adaptation and natural resource of bioactive compounds, harboring the particular metabolic pathways to biosynthesize natural products. However, not much is known on symbiotic microbiomes of fish in the Antarctic zone. In the present study, the culture method and whole-genome sequencing were performed. Natural product analyses were carried out to determine the biosynthetic potential. We report the isolation and identification of a symbiotic bacterium Serratia myotis L7-1, that is highly adaptive and resides within Antarctic fish, Trematomus bernacchii . As revealed by genomic analyses, Antarctic strain S. myotis L7-1 possesses carbohydrate-active enzymes (CAZymes), biosynthetic gene clusters (BGCs), stress response genes, antibiotic resistant genes (ARGs), and a complete type IV secretion system which could facilitate competition and colonization in the extreme Antarctic environment. The identification of microbiome gene clusters indicates the biosynthetic potential of bioactive compounds. Based on bioactivity-guided fractionation, serranticin was purified and identified as the bioactive compound, showing significant antibacterial and antitumor activity. The serranticin gene cluster was identified and located on the chrome. Furthermore, the multidrug resistance and strong bacterial antagonism contribute competitive advantages in ecological niches. Our results highlight the existence of a symbiotic bacterium in Antarctic fish largely represented by bioactive natural products and the adaptability to survive in the fish living in Antarctic oceans.

Xiao, Yu↗

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection Can Reduce Risks to Antarctic Ice Loss Depending on Injection Location and Amount

Owing to increasing greenhouse gas emissions, the Antarctic Ice Sheet is vulnerable to rapid ice loss in the upcoming decades and centuries. Here this study examines the effectiveness of using stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) that minimizes global mean temperature (GMT) change to slow projected 21st century Antarctic ice loss. We simulate 11 different SAI cases which vary by the latitudinal location(s) and the amount(s) of the injection(s) to examine the climatic response near Antarctica in each case as compared to the reference climate at the turn of the last century. We demonstrate that injecting at a single latitude in the northern hemisphere or at the Equator increases Antarctic shelf ocean temperatures pertinent to ice shelf basal melt, while injecting only in the southern hemisphere minimizes this temperature change. We use these results to analyze the results of more complex multi-latitude injection strategies that maintain GMT at or below 1.5°C above the pre-industrial. All these multi-latitude cases will slow Antarctic ice loss relative to the mid-to-late 21st century SSP2-4.5 emissions pathway. Yet, to avoid a GMT threshold estimated by previous studies pertaining to rapid West Antarctic ice loss (1.5°C above the pre-industrial GMT, though large uncertainty), our study suggests SAI would need to cool about 1.0°C below this threshold and predominately inject at low southern hemisphere latitudes (~15°S - 30°S). These results highlight the complexity of factors impacting the Antarctic response to SAI and the critical role of the injection strategy in preventing future ice loss.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Antarctic Soils Select Copiotroph-Dominated Bacteria

The life strategies of bacterial communities determine their structure and function and are an important driver of biogeochemical cycling. However, the variations in these strategies under different soil resource conditions remain largely unknown. We explored the bacterial life strategies and changes in structure and functions between Antarctic soils and forest (temperate, subtropical, and tropical) soils. The results showed that the weighted mean rRNA operon copy number in temperate soils was 19.5% lower than that in Antarctic soils, whereas no significant differences were observed among Antarctic, subtropical, and tropical soils. An unexpected result was that bacterial communities in Antarctic soils tended to be copiotrophs, such as Actinobacteriota and Bacteroidota, whereas those in temperate soils tended to be oligotrophs, such as Acidobacteriota and Chloroflexi. Functional predictions showed that in comparison to copiotrophs in Antarctic soils, temperate-inhabiting oligotrophic bacteria exhibited an 84.2–91.1% lower abundance of labile C decomposition genes (hemicellulose, cellulose, monosaccharides, and disaccharides), whereas a 74.4% higher abundance of stable C decomposition (lignin). Genes involved in N cycling (nitrogen fixation, assimilatory nitrate reduction, and denitrification) were 24.3–64.4% lower in temperate soils than in Antarctic soils. Collectively, our study provides a framework for describing the life strategies of soil bacteria, which are crucial to global biogeochemical cycles.

Microbiology↗

Recent Warming of the Southern Hemisphere Subtropical Lower Stratosphere and Antarctic Ozone Healing

Observed temperature changes from 2002 to 2022 reveal a pronounced warming of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) subtropical lower stratosphere, and a cooling of the Antarctic lower stratosphere. In contrast, model simulations of 21st-century stratospheric temperature changes show widespread cooling driven by increasing greenhouse gases, with local warming in the Antarctic lower stratosphere due to ozone healing. We provide evidence that these discrepancies between observed and simulated stratospheric temperature changes are linked to a slowdown of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation, particularly in the SH. These changes in the stratospheric circulation are strongest from October through December. This altered circulation warms the SH subtropical lower stratosphere while cooling the Antarctic lower stratosphere, canceling and even reversing the Antarctic ozone recovery that would have occurred in its absence during this period. When circulation changes are accounted for, the SH subtropical lower-stratospheric warming is removed, and Antarctic lower-stratospheric warming is revealed with enhanced ozone healing, highlighting the crucial role of the stratospheric circulation in shaping temperature and ozone changes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing Global Ocean Circulation Sensitivity to Changes in Antarctic Ice Discharge

The principal goal of this research is to assess how projected increases in meltwater discharge and iceberg calving from the Antarctic Ice Sheet will impact climate in the next 250 years. In short, the sensitivity of the global ocean circulation and climate, and in particular the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), to large increases in iceberg calving and meltwater discharges to the Southern Ocean are poorly understood. The requirement to investigate this topic is heightened by growing evidence that the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS) is vulnerable to rapid retreat and collapse through marine-ice-sheet-instability (MISI) on multidecadal-to-centennial timescales. Future model simulations of the AIS show the potential for rapid ice sheet retreat in the next 50 – 300 years, with such a collapse associated with the discharge of enormous volumes of ice and meltwater to the Southern Ocean. This project uses a combination of an ice sheet/shelf model and a fully coupled (ocean-atmosphere-seaice) model (CESM 1.2) to explore the sensitive of global climate to future changes in runoff from the Antarctic continent under future greenhouse gas emissions scenarios IPCC RCP4.5 and 8.5. Overall, accounting for Antarctic meltwater reduces the projected global mean anthropogenic greenhouse warming by up to 2 deg C. during peak WAIS collapse and by ~1 deg. for most of the simulation. In addition, the increased meltwater contribution raises sub-surface ocean temperatures at the Antarctic ice sheet margin by more than 1ºC, such that the ice shelf basal melt rates increase beyond those currently projected. In contrast, the model predicts a strong cooling of both the surface air and ocean temperatures over the Southern Ocean that results in a massive expansion and thickening of the perennial sea-ice. The slow-down in anthropogenic warming also results in the onset of ice-free conditions in the Arctic being delayed in the model by several decades, and the projected slowdown in the AMOC to reduce.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The OCEAN ICE mooring compilation: a standardised, pan-Antarctic database of ocean hydrography and current time series

Continuous moored time series of temperature, salinity, pressure and current speed and direction are of great importance for understanding the continental shelf and under-ice-shelf dynamics and thermodynamics that govern water mass transformations and ice melting in and around Antarctic marginal seas. In these regions, icebergs and sea ice make ship-based mooring deployment and recovery challenging. Nevertheless, over decades, expeditions around the fringe of Antarctica sporadically deployed and recovered hundreds of moored instruments, including those facilitated through ice shelves boreholes. These datasets tend to be archived in a wide range of data centres, with, to our knowledge, no clear format standardisation. As a result, systematic analysis of historical mooring time series in the marginal seas is often challenging. Here we present the first version of a standardised pan-Antarctic moored hydrography and current time series compilation, with broad international contributions from data centres, research institutes and individual data owners. The mooring records in this compilation span over five decades, from the 1970s to the 2020s, providing an opportunity for a systematic study of the pan-Antarctic water mass transport and shelf connectivity. As a demonstration of the utility of this compilation, we present spectral analysis of the compiled current velocity time series, which unsurprisingly shows the dominating presence of tidal variability within most records. This component of the variability is fitted using multi-linear regression to tidal frequencies, and the tidal fit is removed from the original time series to leave de-tided variability. Given the limited record durations to months to years, de-tided variability is dominated by synoptic (3–10 d period), intraseasonal (10–80 d) and seasonal (∼6 months–1 year) signals. The spatial distribution of the kinetic energy integrated within frequency bands is presented and discussed within respective regional contexts, and future avenues of research are proposed. This data compilation is assembled under the endorsement of Ocean-Cryosphere Exchanges in ANtarctica: Impacts on Climate and the Earth System (OCEAN ICE) project (https://ocean-ice.eu/, last access: 23 October 2025) funded by the European Commission and UK Research and Innovation. It is available and regularly updated in NetCDF format with the SEANOE database at https://doi.org/10.17882/99922 (Zhou et al., 2024a).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Importance of the Antarctic Slope Current in the Southern Ocean Response to Ice Sheet Melt and Wind Stress Change

Abstract We use two coupled climate models, GFDL‐CM4 and GFDL‐ESM4, to investigate the physical response of the Southern Ocean to changes in surface wind stress, Antarctic meltwater, and the combined forcing of the two in a pre‐industrial control simulation. The meltwater cools the ocean surface in all regions except the Weddell Sea, where the wind stress warms the near‐surface layer. The limited sensitivity of the Weddell Sea surface layer to the meltwater is due to the spatial distribution of the meltwater fluxes, regional bathymetry, and large‐scale circulation patterns. The meltwater forcing dominates the Antarctic shelf response and the models yield strikingly different responses along West Antarctica. The disagreement is attributable to the mean‐state representation and meltwater‐driven acceleration of the Antarctic Slope Current (ASC). In CM4, the meltwater is efficiently trapped on the shelf by a well resolved, strong, and accelerating ASC which isolates the West Antarctic shelf from warm offshore waters, leading to strong subsurface cooling. In ESM4, a weaker and diffuse ASC allows more meltwater to escape to the open ocean, the West Antarctic shelf does not become isolated, and instead strong subsurface warming occurs. The CM4 results suggest a possible negative feedback mechanism that acts to limit future melting, while the ESM4 results suggest a possible positive feedback mechanism that acts to accelerate melt. Our results demonstrate the strong influence the ASC has on governing changes along the shelf, highlighting the importance of coupling interactive ice sheet models to ocean models that can resolve these dynamical processes.

Beadling, R. L.↗

The DOE E3SM v1.2 Cryosphere Configuration: Description and Simulated Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melting

Abstract The processes responsible for freshwater flux from the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS), ice‐shelf basal melting and iceberg calving, are generally poorly represented in current Earth System Models (ESMs). Here we document the cryosphere configuration of the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) v1.2. This includes simulating Antarctic ice‐shelf basal melting, which has been implemented through simulating the ocean circulation within static Antarctic ice‐shelf cavities, allowing for the ability to calculate ice‐shelf basal melt rates from the associated heat and freshwater fluxes. In addition, we added the capability to prescribe forcing from iceberg melt, allowing for realistic representation of the other dominant mass loss process from the AIS. In standard resolution simulations (using a noneddying ocean) under preindustrial climate forcing, we find high sensitivity of modeled ocean/ice shelf interactions to the ocean state, which can result in a transition to a high basal melt regime under the Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS), presenting a significant challenge to representing the ocean/ice shelf system in a coupled ESM. We show that inclusion of a spatially dependent parameterization of eddy‐induced transport reduces biases in water mass properties on the Antarctic continental shelf. With these improvements, E3SM produces realistic ice‐shelf basal melt rates across the continent that are generally within the range inferred from observations. The accurate representation of ice‐shelf basal melting within a coupled ESM is an important step toward reducing uncertainties in projections of the Antarctic response to climate change and Antarctica's contribution to global sea‐level rise.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating Uncertainty and Modes of Variability for Antarctic Atmospheric Rivers

Abstract Antarctic atmospheric rivers (ARs) are driven by their synoptic environments and lead to profound and varying impacts along the coastlines and over the continent. The definition and detection of ARs over Antarctica accounts for large uncertainty in AR metrics, and consequently, impacts quantification. We find that Antarctic‐specific detection tools consistently capture the AR footprint inland over ice sheets, whereas most global detection tools do not. Large‐scale synoptic environments and associated ARs, however, are broadly consistent across detection tools. Using data from the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project and global reanalyses, we quantify the uncertainty in Antarctic AR metrics and evaluate large‐scale environments in the context of decadal and interannual modes of variability. The Antarctic western hemisphere has stronger connections to both decadal and interannual modes of variability compared to East Antarctica, and the Indian Ocean Dipole’s influence on Antarctic ARs is stronger while in phase with El Nino Southern Oscillation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Contribution of Atmospheric Rivers to Antarctic Precipitation

Abstract Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are efficient mechanisms for transporting atmospheric moisture from low latitudes to the Antarctic Ice Sheet (AIS). While AR events occur infrequently, they can lead to extreme precipitation and surface melt events on the AIS. Here we estimate the contribution of ARs to total Antarctic precipitation, by combining precipitation from atmospheric reanalyses and a polar‐specific AR detection algorithm. We show that ARs contribute substantially to Antarctic precipitation, especially in East Antarctica at elevations below 3,000 m. ARs contribute substantially to year‐to‐year variability in Antarctic precipitation. Our results highlight that ARs are an important component for understanding present and future Antarctic mass balance trends and variability.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mid-Holocene Antarctic sea-ice increase driven by marine ice sheet retreat

Abstract. Over recent decades Antarctic sea-ice extent has increased, alongside widespread ice shelf thinning and freshening of waters along the Antarctic margin. In contrast, Earth system models generally simulate a decrease in sea ice. Circulation of water masses beneath large-cavity ice shelves is not included in current Earth System models and may be a driver of this phenomena. We examine a Holocene sediment core off East Antarctica that records the Neoglacial transition, the last major baseline shift of Antarctic sea ice, and part of a late-Holocene global cooling trend. We provide a multi-proxy record of Holocene glacial meltwater input, sediment transport, and sea-ice variability. Our record, supported by high-resolution ocean modelling, shows that a rapid Antarctic sea-ice increase during the mid-Holocene (∼ 4.5 ka) occurred against a backdrop of increasing glacial meltwater input and gradual climate warming. We suggest that mid-Holocene ice shelf cavity expansion led to cooling of surface waters and sea-ice growth that slowed basal ice shelf melting. Incorporating this feedback mechanism into global climate models will be important for future projections of Antarctic changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Insights into the vulnerability of Antarctic glaciers from the ISMIP6 ice sheet model ensemble and associated uncertainty

Abstract. The Antarctic Ice Sheet represents the largest source of uncertainty in future sea level rise projections, with a contribution to sea level by 2100 ranging from −5 to 43 cm of sea level equivalent under high carbon emission scenarios estimated by the recent Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). ISMIP6 highlighted the different behaviors of the East and West Antarctic ice sheets, as well as the possible role of increased surface mass balance in offsetting the dynamic ice loss in response to changing oceanic conditions in ice shelf cavities. However, the detailed contribution of individual glaciers, as well as the partitioning of uncertainty associated with this ensemble, have not yet been investigated. Here, we analyze the ISMIP6 results for high carbon emission scenarios, focusing on key glaciers around the Antarctic Ice Sheet, and we quantify their projected dynamic mass loss, defined here as mass loss through increased ice discharge into the ocean in response to changing oceanic conditions. We highlight glaciers contributing the most to sea level rise, as well as their vulnerability to changes in oceanic conditions. We then investigate the different sources of uncertainty and their relative role in projections, for the entire continent and for key individual glaciers. We show that, in addition to Thwaites and Pine Island glaciers in West Antarctica, Totten and Moscow University glaciers in East Antarctica present comparable future dynamic mass loss and high sensitivity to ice shelf basal melt. The overall uncertainty in additional dynamic mass loss in response to changing oceanic conditions, compared to a scenario with constant oceanic conditions, is dominated by the choice of ice sheet model, accounting for 52 % of the total uncertainty of the Antarctic dynamic mass loss in 2100. Its relative role for the most dynamic glaciers varies between 14 % for MacAyeal and Whillans ice streams and 56 % for Pine Island Glacier at the end of the century. The uncertainty associated with the choice of climate model increases over time and reaches 13 % of the uncertainty by 2100 for the Antarctic Ice Sheet but varies between 4 % for Thwaites Glacier and 53 % for Whillans Ice Stream. The uncertainty associated with the ice–climate interaction, which captures different treatments of oceanic forcings such as the choice of melt parameterization, its calibration, and simulated ice shelf geometries, accounts for 22 % of the uncertainty at the ice sheet scale but reaches 36 % and 39 % for Institute Ice Stream and Thwaites Glacier, respectively, by 2100. Overall, this study helps inform future research by highlighting the sectors of the ice sheet most vulnerable to oceanic warming over the 21st century and by quantifying the main sources of uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Early glacier advance in New Zealand during the Antarctic Cold Reversal

ABSTRACT Glacial landscapes preserve records of past climate change. Investigating the glacier–climate system over the Late Quaternary provides information about past climate change and context for present‐day glacier response to climate warming. Using 28 beryllium‐10 ( 10 Be) surface exposure dates and snowline reconstructions, we present glacier fluctuations and climate changes for the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Ahuriri River catchment, Southern Alps of New Zealand (44°7′50″S, 169°38′29″E). Prominent terminal and lateral moraine features from the upper right tributary of the Ahuriri River valley have exposure ages of 14.5 ± 0.3, 13.6 ± 0.3 and 12.6 ± 0.2 ka, suggesting retreat of the glacier during the Antarctic Cold Reversal. Maximum elevation of lateral moraines (MELM) and accumulation area ratio (AAR) suggest snowline elevations at these ages were ≤700, ≤630 and ~360 m lower than today, respectively. This equates to air temperatures ≤3.9, ≤3.5 and 2.3 ± 0.7 °C lower than today (1981–2010), assuming no changes in past precipitation. Ice‐sculpted bedrock surfaces bound by a lateral moraine at nearby Canyon Creek have an age of 13.1 ± 0.3 ka, indicating the moraine correlates with those in the Ahuriri upper right tributary. MELM and AAR reconstructions from the Canyon Creek suggest that snowline elevations at 14.5–13.6 ka were ≤500 or ~380 m lower than today, corresponding to air temperatures ≤2.8 or 2.4 ± 0.7 °C lower than the present‐day (1981–2010). Our results provide insight into the structure of the Antarctic Cold Reversal in the Southern Alps, showing that the largest glacier advance occurred at the start of this interval at c . 14.5 ± 0.3 ka and was followed by gradual retreat. We hypothesize that the early cooling and glacier readvance in New Zealand at the onset of the Antarctic Cold Reversal were triggered by a latitudinal shift of the Southern Hemisphere westerly wind belt.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗