Probability concepts applied to sequential equipment operation
Probability concepts applied to sequential equipment operation
Layton, L.↗
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Translating macroecological models to predict microbial establishment probability in an agricultural inoculant introduction
The use of potentially beneficial microorganisms in agriculture (microbial inoculants) has rapidly accelerated in recent years. For microbial inoculants to be effective as agricultural tools, these organisms must be able to survive and persist in novel environments while not destabilizing the resident community or spilling over into adjacent natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of propagule pressure to species introductions, few tools exist in microbial ecology to predict the outcomes of agricultural microbial introductions. Here, we adapt a macroecological propagule pressure model to a microbial scale and present an experimental approach for testing the role of propagule pressure in microbial inoculant introductions. We experimentally determined the risk-release relationship for an IAA-expressing Pseudomonas simiae inoculant in a model monocot system. We then used this relationship to simulate establishment outcomes under a range of application frequencies (propagule number) and inoculant concentrations (propagule size). Our simulations show that repeated inoculant applications may increase establishment, even when increased inoculant concentration does not alter establishment probabilities. Applying ecological modeling approaches like those presented here to microbial inoculants may aid their sustainable use and provide a monitoring tool for microbial inoculants.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Heat transport in a stratified two-phase fluid
A self-gravitating fluid, stratified into two phases of appreciably different densities and heated from within is considered. The heat flux, viscosity, and thermal diffusivity are assumed to be small enough so that, away from the interface between the phases, the flux is mainly carried by turbulent convection with a very small superadiabaticity. Different modes are investigated for transporting the heat flux across the interface, and both possible signs of the latent heat L are considered. A thermal boundary layer, distortion of the interface, and the nucleation, growth and motion of droplets and bubbles are included. It is shown that, under a specified range of conditions, the transition region near the interface is thin with a small change in the temperature T across it. The entropy difference between the two phases is then L/T. These considerations probably apply to the interior of Jupiter.
Salpeter, E. E.↗
Absolute value optimization to estimate phase properties of stochastic time series
Most existing deconvolution techniques are incapable of determining phase properties of wavelets from time series data; to assure a unique solution, minimum phase is usually assumed. It is demonstrated, for moving average processes of order one, that deconvolution filtering using the absolute value norm provides an estimate of the wavelet shape that has the correct phase character when the random driving process is nonnormal. Numerical tests show that this result probably applies to more general processes.
Scargle, J. D.↗
Potential for observing and discriminating impact craters and comparable volcanic landforms on Magellan radar images
Observations of small terrestrial craters by Seasat synthetic aperture radar (SAR) at high resolution (approx. 25 m) and of comparatively large Venusian craters by Venera 15/16 images at low resolution (1000 to 2000 m) and shorter wavelength show similarities in the radar responses to crater morphology. At low incidence angles, the responses are dominated by large scale slope effects on the order of meters; consequently it is difficult to locate the precise position of crater rims on the images. Abrupt contrasts in radar response to changing slope (hence incidence angle) across a crater produce sharp tonal boundaries normal to the illumination. Crater morphology that is radially symmetrical appears on images to have bilateral symmetry parallel to the illumination vector. Craters are compressed in the distal sector and drawn out in the proximal sector. At higher incidence angles obtained with the viewing geometry of SIR-A, crater morphology appears less compressed on the images. At any radar incidence angle, the distortion of a crater outline is minimal across the medial sector, in a direction normal to the illumination. Radar bright halos surround some craters imaged by SIR-A and Venera 15 and 16. The brightness probably denotes the radar response to small scale surface roughness of the surrounding ejecta blankets. Similarities in the radar responses of small terrestrial impact craters and volcanic craters of comparable dimensions emphasize the difficulties in discriminating an impact origin from a volcanic origin in the images. Similar difficulties will probably apply in discriminating the origin of small Venusian craters, if they exist. Because of orbital considerations, the nominal incidence angel of Magellan radar at the center of the imaging swath will vary from about 45 deg at 10 deg N latitude to about 16 deg at the north pole and at 70 deg S latitude. Impact craters and comparable volcanic landforms will show bilateral symmetry parallel to the illumination vector and will appear increasingly compressed toward higher latitudes.
Ford, J. P.↗
Human factors of the high technology cockpit
The rapid advance of cockpit automation in the last decade has outstripped the ability of the human factors profession to understand the changes in human functions required. High technology cockpits require less physical (observable) workload, but are highly demanding of cognitive functions such as planning, alternative selection, and monitoring. Furthermore, automation creates opportunity for new and more serious forms of human error, and many pilots are concerned about the possibility of complacency affecting their performance. On the positive side, the equipment works as advertized with high reliability, offering highly efficient, computer-based flight. These findings from the cockpit studies probably apply equally to other industries, such as nuclear power production, other modes of transportation, medicine, and manufacturing, all of which traditionally have looked to aviation for technological leadership. The challenge to the human factors profession is to aid designers, operators, and training departments in exploiting the positive side of automation, while seeking solutions to the negative side. Viewgraphs are given.
Wiener, Earl L.↗
Intervention strategies for the management of human error
This report examines the management of human error in the cockpit. The principles probably apply as well to other applications in the aviation realm (e.g. air traffic control, dispatch, weather, etc.) as well as other high-risk systems outside of aviation (e.g. shipping, high-technology medical procedures, military operations, nuclear power production). Management of human error is distinguished from error prevention. It is a more encompassing term, which includes not only the prevention of error, but also a means of disallowing an error, once made, from adversely affecting system output. Such techniques include: traditional human factors engineering, improvement of feedback and feedforward of information from system to crew, 'error-evident' displays which make erroneous input more obvious to the crew, trapping of errors within a system, goal-sharing between humans and machines (also called 'intent-driven' systems), paperwork management, and behaviorally based approaches, including procedures, standardization, checklist design, training, cockpit resource management, etc. Fifteen guidelines for the design and implementation of intervention strategies are included.
Wiener, Earl L.↗
Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)
The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.
Kauffmann, Paul J.↗
Assessment of Rainfall Estimates Using a Standard Z-R Relationship and the Probability Matching Method Applied to Composite Radar Data in Central Florida
Precipitation estimates from radar systems are a crucial component of many hydrometeorological applications, from flash flood forecasting to regional water budget studies. For analyses on large spatial scales and long timescales, it is frequently necessary to use composite reflectivities from a network of radar systems. Such composite products are useful for regional or national studies, but introduce a set of difficulties not encountered when using single radars. For instance, each contributing radar has its own calibration and scanning characteristics, but radar identification may not be retained in the compositing procedure. As a result, range effects on signal return cannot be taken into account. This paper assesses the accuracy with which composite radar imagery can be used to estimate precipitation in the convective environment of Florida during the summer of 1991. Results using Z = 30OR(sup 1.4) (WSR-88D default Z-R relationship) are compared with those obtained using the probability matching method (PMM). Rainfall derived from the power law Z-R was found to he highly biased (+90%-l10%) compared to rain gauge measurements for various temporal and spatial integrations. Application of a 36.5-dBZ reflectivity threshold (determined via the PMM) was found to improve the performance of the power law Z-R, reducing the biases substantially to 20%-33%. Correlations between precipitation estimates obtained with either Z-R relationship and mean gauge values are much higher for areal averages than for point locations. Precipitation estimates from the PMM are an improvement over those obtained using the power law in that biases and root-mean-square errors are much lower. The minimum timescale for application of the PMM with the composite radar dataset was found to be several days for area-average precipitation. The minimum spatial scale is harder to quantify, although it is concluded that it is less than 350 sq km. Implications relevant to the WSR-88D system are discussed.
Crosson, William L.↗
Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity
The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.
Daniel C Kammer↗
Applying Flammability Limit Probabilities and the Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure Concept to NASA STD-6001 Test 1
Repeated Test 1 extinction tests near the upward flammability limit are expected to follow a Poisson process trend. This Poisson process trend suggests that rather than define a ULOI and MOC (which requires two limits to be determined), it might be better to define a single upward limit as being where 1/e (where e (approx. equal to 2.7183) is the characteristic time of the normalized Poisson process) of the materials burn, or, rounding, where approximately 1/3 of the samples fail the test (and burn). Recognizing that spacecraft atmospheres will not bound the entire oxygen-pressure parameter space, but actually lie along the normoxic atmosphere control band, we can focus the materials flammability testing along this normoxic band. A Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure (NULP) is defined that determines the minimum safe total pressure for a material within the constant partial pressure control band. Then, increasing this pressure limit by a factor of safety, we can define the material as being safe to use at the NULP + SF (where SF is on the order of 10 kilopascal, based on existing flammability data). It is recommended that the thickest material to be tested with the current Test 1 igniter should be 3 mm thick (1/8 inches) to avoid the problem of differentiating between an ignition limit and a true flammability limit.
flammability↗
Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Mult-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Joel W Sills↗
Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Joel W Sills↗
The Evolution of the Impact Evidence Library Methods – What We Learned
During fiscal years 2020-2022 NASA’s Human Research Program, Exploration Medical Capability Element has worked to source this evidence for the model. During the process several lessons learned have been identified and drive recommendations for future efforts. The ICL 1.0: Spaceflight Medical Operational expertise should be consulted regarding the addition of future conditions. A clinician experienced with the nuances of spaceflight is recommended to have a minimum of 20 hours per condition to adequately source the evidence. Condition definitions should be carefully crafted to maintain mutual exclusivity. Common side effects from medications, common and consequential incidental findings in laboratory studies, and consequential side effects of diagnostic and procedural capabilities should be considered for inclusion as unique conditions in future iterations of the ICL 1.0. Incidence: Spaceflight incidence, although based on small population sizes, is the gold standard. Terrestrial incidence should be applied cautiously. Probability of minor vs. severe cases of the condition: Data informing severity probability of the medical condition are nearly always terrestrial. Special attention should be paid to this metric as it drives outcomes in the model and terrestrial data often overestimate severity of expected cases in spaceflight. Condition duration: Three clinical phases currently exist in the model. They represent the time necessary for diagnosis, treatment/convalescence/recurrence, and the remaining duration of the mission after maximal recovery, respectively. Further subdivision of acute and convalescent treatment/recurrence is recommended. Probability of need for evacuation: Surrogates for “Return to Definitive Care” were chosen prior to data collection. In most cases these surrogates were “need for hospitalization” or “need for surgery.” For many conditions these may not be realistic drivers of “Return to Definitive Care” and should be re-examined. Probability of Crew Mortality: Terrestrial mortality data is difficult to apply to astronauts who, invariably, have less comorbidities than terrestrial subjects. It must be applied judiciously. The proportion of mission tasks impaired by the condition: “Task Impairment” was assigned to each condition prior to the condition duration data becoming available. Future efforts should assign Task Impairment as the final step in sourcing the evidence.
A.J. Kreykes↗
Probability learning - First-order Markov structures of quarternary events
First order Markov structures of quaternary events applied to probability learning
Huff, E. M.↗
Volatile solubities in magmas - Transport of volatiles from mantles to planet surfaces
The solubility of CO2, CO, CH4, H2, and H2O in melts of NaAlSi3O8 composition was measured at the mantle conditions of pressure (10-20 Kb) and temperature (1200 C). The melt volatiles were found to have dramatically lower H2/H2O and higher CO/CO2 ratios than the fluid, due to large variations in relative solubilities of volatile species in the melt. Partial melting of source regions of either high or low oxygen fugacity (fO2) will result in magmas with intermediate fO2. This means that volcanic gases can be either more, or less reducing than their source regions and that a volcanic gas composition cannot be used to directly estimate either the fO2 or the volatile composition of the source region. The results suggest that volcanic gases will usually lie in the 'neutral' range, with the fO2 values near those of the quartz-fayalite-magnetite buffer. These gases are predominately H2O with minor CO2, CO, CH4, and H2. These conclusions should apply to earth, Mars, and Venus mantles, in which the magmas produced by partial melting have moderate silica contents, but will probably not apply to very low silica magmas, such as kimberlites, because of the very high solubility of CO2 in those magmas.
Holloway, J. R.↗
Innovation and application of ANN in Europe demonstrated by Kohonen maps
One of the most important contributions to neural networks comes from Kohonen, Helsinki/Espoo, Finland, who had the idea of self-organizating maps in 1981. He verified his idea by an algorithm of which many applications make use of. The impetus for this idea came from biology, a field where the Europeans have always been very active at several research laboratories. The challenge was to model the self-organization found in the brain. Today one goal is the development of more sophisticated neurons which model the biological neurons more exactly. They should come to a better performance of neural nets with only a few complex neurons instead of many simple ones. A lot of application concepts arise from this idea: Kohonen himself applied it to speech recognition, but the project did not overcome much more than the recognition of the numerals one to ten at that time. A more promising application for self-organizing maps is process control and process monitoring. Several proposals were made which concern parameter classification of semiconductor technologies, design of integrated circuits, and control of chemical processes. Self-organizing maps were applied to robotics. The neural concept was introduced into electric power systems. At Dortmund we are working on a system which has to monitor the quality and the reliability of gears and electrical motors in equipment installed in coal mines. The results are promising and the probability to apply the system in the field is very high. A special feature of the system is that linguistic rules which are embedded in a fuzzy controller analyze the data of the self-organizing map in regard to life expectation of the gears. It seems that the fuzzy technique will introduce the technology of neural networks in a tandem mode. These technologies together with the genetic algorithms start to form the attractive field of computational intelligence.
Goser, Karl↗
Structural Deterministic Safety Factors Selection Criteria and Verification
Though current deterministic safety factors are arbitrarily and unaccountably specified, its ratio is rooted in resistive and applied stress probability distributions. This study approached the deterministic method from a probabilistic concept leading to a more systematic and coherent philosophy and criterion for designing more uniform and reliable high-performance structures. The deterministic method was noted to consist of three safety factors: a standard deviation multiplier of the applied stress distribution; a K-factor for the A- or B-basis material ultimate stress; and the conventional safety factor to ensure that the applied stress does not operate in the inelastic zone of metallic materials. The conventional safety factor is specifically defined as the ratio of ultimate-to-yield stresses. A deterministic safety index of the combined safety factors was derived from which the corresponding reliability proved the deterministic method is not reliability sensitive. The bases for selecting safety factors are presented and verification requirements are discussed. The suggested deterministic approach is applicable to all NASA, DOD, and commercial high-performance structures under static stresses.
Verderaime, V.↗