Probability concepts applied to sequential equipment operation
Probability concepts applied to sequential equipment operation
Layton, L.↗
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Subplane collision probabilities method applied to control rod cusping in 2D/1D
The MPACT code is being jointly developed by the University of Michigan and Oak Ridge National Laboratory. It uses the 2D/1D method to solve neutron transport problems for reactors. The 2D/1D method decomposes the problem into a stack of 2D planes, and uses a high fidelity transport method to resolve all heterogeneity in each plane. These planes are then coupled axially using a lower order solver. Using this scheme, 3D solutions to the transport equation can be obtained at a much lower cost.One assumption made by the 2D/1D method is that the materials are axially homogeneous for each 2D plane. Violation of this assumption requires homogenization, which can significantly reduce the accuracy of the calculation. This paper presents two new subgrid methods to address this issue. The first method is polynomial decusping, a simple correction used to address control rods partially inserted into a 2D plane. The second is the subplane collision probabilities method, which is a more accurate, more robust subgrid method that can be applied to other axial heterogeneities.Each method was applied to a variety of problems. Results were compared to fine mesh solutions which had no axial heterogeneity and to Monte Carlo reference solutions generated using KENO-VI. It was shown that the polynomial decusping method was effective in many cases, but it had some limitations, with 3D pin power errors as high as 25% compared to KENO-VI. In conclusion, the subplane collision probabilities method performed much better, lowering the maximum pin power error to less than 5% in every calculation.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Observer POD for radiographic testing
The radiographic testing (RT) is a non-destructive testing (NDT) method capable of finding volumetric and open planar defects depending on their orientation. The radiographic contrast is higher for larger penetrated length of the defect in a component. Even though, the detectability of defects does not only depend on the contrast, but also on the noise, the defect area and the geometry of the defect. The currently applied Probability of Detection (POD) approach uses a detection threshold that is only based on a constant noise level or on a constant contrast threshold. This does not reflect accurately the results of evaluations by human observers. A new approach is introduced, using the widely applied POD evaluation and additionally a detection threshold depending on the lateral area and shape of the indication. This work shows the process of calculating the POD curves with simulated data by the modeling software aRTist and with artificial reference data of different defect types, such as ASTM E 476 EPS plates, flat bottom holes and notches. Additional experiments with different operators confirm that the depth of a defect, the lateral area and shape of its indication contribute with different weight to the detectability of the defect if evaluated by human operators on monitors.
71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
Environmental assessment in The Netherlands: Effectively governing environmental protection? A discourse analysis
Environmental assessment (EA) aims to enhance environmental awareness and to ensure that environmental values are fully considered in decision-making. In the EA arena, different discourses exist on what EA should aim for and how it functions. We hypothesise that these discourses influence its application in practice as well as its effectiveness in terms of achieving the above goals. For instance, actors who consider EA as a hindrance to fast implementation of their projects will probably apply it as a mandatory checklist, whereas actors who believe that EA can help to develop more environmentally sound decisions will use EIA as a tool to design their initiatives. In this paper we explore discourses on EA in The Netherlands and elaborate on their implications for EA effectiveness. Based on an innovative research design comprising an online survey with 443 respondents and 20 supplementary semi-structured interviews we conclude that the dominant discourse is that EA is mainly a legal requirement; EAs are conducted because they have to be conducted, not because actors choose to do so. EA effectiveness however seems reasonably high, as a majority of respondents perceive that it enhances environmental awareness and contributes to environmental protection. However, the 'legal requirement' discourse also results in decision-makers seldom going beyond what is prescribed by EA and environmental law. Despite its mandatory character, the predominant attitude towards EA is quite positive. For most respondents, EA is instrumental in providing transparency of decision-making and in minimising the legal risks of not complying with environmental laws. Differences in discourses seldom reflect extreme opposites. The 'common ground' regarding EA provides a good basis for working with EA in terms of meeting legal requirements but at the same time does not stimulate creativity in decision-making or optimisation of environmental values. In countries characterised by less consensual political cultures we may expect more extreme discourses on EA, the consequences of which are reflected upon in this paper. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer The effectiveness of environmental assessment (EA) depends in part on meanings associated with EA (i.e., discourse). Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Our results suggest that the general discourse in The Netherlands is that EA is a legal requirement, nothing more. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer This discourse makes EA effective in protecting the environment, but not in the optimisation of environmental values. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer EA has a limited contribution to the development of policy alternatives or innovative solutions to environmental problems. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer There is a high consensus among EA professionals, providing a common ground for working with EA.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Sub-10 second fly-scan nano-tomography using machine learning
Abstract X-ray computed tomography is a versatile technique for 3D structure characterization. However, conventional reconstruction algorithms require that the sample not change throughout the scan, and the timescale of sample dynamics must be longer than the data acquisition time to fulfill the stable sample requirement. Meanwhile, concerns about X-ray-induced parasite reaction and sample damage have driven research efforts to reduce beam dosage. Here, we report a machine-learning-based image processing method that can significantly reduce data acquisition time and X-ray dose, outperforming conventional approaches like Filtered-Back Projection, maximum-likelihood, and model-based maximum-a-posteriori probability. Applying machine learning, we achieve ultrafast nano-tomography with sub-10 second data acquisition time and sub-50 nm pixel resolution in a transmission X-ray microscope. We apply our algorithm to study dynamic morphology changes in a lithium-ion battery cathode under a heating rate of 50 o C min −1 , revealing crack self-healing during thermal annealing. The proposed method can be applied to various tomography modalities.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Isotopic effects in sub-barrier fusion of Si + Si systems
Recent measurements of fusion cross sections for the 28 Si + 28 Si system revealed a rather unsystematic behavior; i.e., they drop faster near the barrier than at lower energies. This was tentatively attributed to the large oblate deformation of 28 Si because coupled-channels (CC) calculations largely underestimate the 28 Si + 28 Si cross sections at low energies, unless a weak imaginary potential is applied, probably simulating the deformation. 30 Si has no permanent deformation and its low-energy excitations are of a vibrational nature. Here, previous measurements of this system reached only 4 mb, which is not sufficient to obtain information on effects that should show up at lower energies.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Translating macroecological models to predict microbial establishment probability in an agricultural inoculant introduction
The use of potentially beneficial microorganisms in agriculture (microbial inoculants) has rapidly accelerated in recent years. For microbial inoculants to be effective as agricultural tools, these organisms must be able to survive and persist in novel environments while not destabilizing the resident community or spilling over into adjacent natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of propagule pressure to species introductions, few tools exist in microbial ecology to predict the outcomes of agricultural microbial introductions. Here, we adapt a macroecological propagule pressure model to a microbial scale and present an experimental approach for testing the role of propagule pressure in microbial inoculant introductions. We experimentally determined the risk-release relationship for an IAA-expressing Pseudomonas simiae inoculant in a model monocot system. We then used this relationship to simulate establishment outcomes under a range of application frequencies (propagule number) and inoculant concentrations (propagule size). Our simulations show that repeated inoculant applications may increase establishment, even when increased inoculant concentration does not alter establishment probabilities. Applying ecological modeling approaches like those presented here to microbial inoculants may aid their sustainable use and provide a monitoring tool for microbial inoculants.
59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
Heat transport in a stratified two-phase fluid
A self-gravitating fluid, stratified into two phases of appreciably different densities and heated from within is considered. The heat flux, viscosity, and thermal diffusivity are assumed to be small enough so that, away from the interface between the phases, the flux is mainly carried by turbulent convection with a very small superadiabaticity. Different modes are investigated for transporting the heat flux across the interface, and both possible signs of the latent heat L are considered. A thermal boundary layer, distortion of the interface, and the nucleation, growth and motion of droplets and bubbles are included. It is shown that, under a specified range of conditions, the transition region near the interface is thin with a small change in the temperature T across it. The entropy difference between the two phases is then L/T. These considerations probably apply to the interior of Jupiter.
Salpeter, E. E.↗
Absolute value optimization to estimate phase properties of stochastic time series
Most existing deconvolution techniques are incapable of determining phase properties of wavelets from time series data; to assure a unique solution, minimum phase is usually assumed. It is demonstrated, for moving average processes of order one, that deconvolution filtering using the absolute value norm provides an estimate of the wavelet shape that has the correct phase character when the random driving process is nonnormal. Numerical tests show that this result probably applies to more general processes.
Scargle, J. D.↗
Potential for observing and discriminating impact craters and comparable volcanic landforms on Magellan radar images
Observations of small terrestrial craters by Seasat synthetic aperture radar (SAR) at high resolution (approx. 25 m) and of comparatively large Venusian craters by Venera 15/16 images at low resolution (1000 to 2000 m) and shorter wavelength show similarities in the radar responses to crater morphology. At low incidence angles, the responses are dominated by large scale slope effects on the order of meters; consequently it is difficult to locate the precise position of crater rims on the images. Abrupt contrasts in radar response to changing slope (hence incidence angle) across a crater produce sharp tonal boundaries normal to the illumination. Crater morphology that is radially symmetrical appears on images to have bilateral symmetry parallel to the illumination vector. Craters are compressed in the distal sector and drawn out in the proximal sector. At higher incidence angles obtained with the viewing geometry of SIR-A, crater morphology appears less compressed on the images. At any radar incidence angle, the distortion of a crater outline is minimal across the medial sector, in a direction normal to the illumination. Radar bright halos surround some craters imaged by SIR-A and Venera 15 and 16. The brightness probably denotes the radar response to small scale surface roughness of the surrounding ejecta blankets. Similarities in the radar responses of small terrestrial impact craters and volcanic craters of comparable dimensions emphasize the difficulties in discriminating an impact origin from a volcanic origin in the images. Similar difficulties will probably apply in discriminating the origin of small Venusian craters, if they exist. Because of orbital considerations, the nominal incidence angel of Magellan radar at the center of the imaging swath will vary from about 45 deg at 10 deg N latitude to about 16 deg at the north pole and at 70 deg S latitude. Impact craters and comparable volcanic landforms will show bilateral symmetry parallel to the illumination vector and will appear increasingly compressed toward higher latitudes.
Ford, J. P.↗
Human factors of the high technology cockpit
The rapid advance of cockpit automation in the last decade has outstripped the ability of the human factors profession to understand the changes in human functions required. High technology cockpits require less physical (observable) workload, but are highly demanding of cognitive functions such as planning, alternative selection, and monitoring. Furthermore, automation creates opportunity for new and more serious forms of human error, and many pilots are concerned about the possibility of complacency affecting their performance. On the positive side, the equipment works as advertized with high reliability, offering highly efficient, computer-based flight. These findings from the cockpit studies probably apply equally to other industries, such as nuclear power production, other modes of transportation, medicine, and manufacturing, all of which traditionally have looked to aviation for technological leadership. The challenge to the human factors profession is to aid designers, operators, and training departments in exploiting the positive side of automation, while seeking solutions to the negative side. Viewgraphs are given.
Wiener, Earl L.↗
Intervention strategies for the management of human error
This report examines the management of human error in the cockpit. The principles probably apply as well to other applications in the aviation realm (e.g. air traffic control, dispatch, weather, etc.) as well as other high-risk systems outside of aviation (e.g. shipping, high-technology medical procedures, military operations, nuclear power production). Management of human error is distinguished from error prevention. It is a more encompassing term, which includes not only the prevention of error, but also a means of disallowing an error, once made, from adversely affecting system output. Such techniques include: traditional human factors engineering, improvement of feedback and feedforward of information from system to crew, 'error-evident' displays which make erroneous input more obvious to the crew, trapping of errors within a system, goal-sharing between humans and machines (also called 'intent-driven' systems), paperwork management, and behaviorally based approaches, including procedures, standardization, checklist design, training, cockpit resource management, etc. Fifteen guidelines for the design and implementation of intervention strategies are included.
Wiener, Earl L.↗
Reliability analysis in the Office of Safety, Environmental, and Mission Assurance (OSEMA)
The technical personnel in the SEMA office are working to provide the highest degree of value-added activities to their support of the NASA Langley Research Center mission. Management perceives that reliability analysis tools and an understanding of a comprehensive systems approach to reliability will be a foundation of this change process. Since the office is involved in a broad range of activities supporting space mission projects and operating activities (such as wind tunnels and facilities), it was not clear what reliability tools the office should be familiar with and how these tools could serve as a flexible knowledge base for organizational growth. Interviews and discussions with the office personnel (both technicians and engineers) revealed that job responsibilities ranged from incoming inspection to component or system analysis to safety and risk. It was apparent that a broad base in applied probability and reliability along with tools for practical application was required by the office. A series of ten class sessions with a duration of two hours each was organized and scheduled. Hand-out materials were developed and practical examples based on the type of work performed by the office personnel were included. Topics covered were: Reliability Systems - a broad system oriented approach to reliability; Probability Distributions - discrete and continuous distributions; Sampling and Confidence Intervals - random sampling and sampling plans; Data Analysis and Estimation - Model selection and parameter estimates; and Reliability Tools - block diagrams, fault trees, event trees, FMEA. In the future, this information will be used to review and assess existing equipment and processes from a reliability system perspective. An analysis of incoming materials sampling plans was also completed. This study looked at the issues associated with Mil Std 105 and changes for a zero defect acceptance sampling plan.
Kauffmann, Paul J.↗
Assessment of Rainfall Estimates Using a Standard Z-R Relationship and the Probability Matching Method Applied to Composite Radar Data in Central Florida
Precipitation estimates from radar systems are a crucial component of many hydrometeorological applications, from flash flood forecasting to regional water budget studies. For analyses on large spatial scales and long timescales, it is frequently necessary to use composite reflectivities from a network of radar systems. Such composite products are useful for regional or national studies, but introduce a set of difficulties not encountered when using single radars. For instance, each contributing radar has its own calibration and scanning characteristics, but radar identification may not be retained in the compositing procedure. As a result, range effects on signal return cannot be taken into account. This paper assesses the accuracy with which composite radar imagery can be used to estimate precipitation in the convective environment of Florida during the summer of 1991. Results using Z = 30OR(sup 1.4) (WSR-88D default Z-R relationship) are compared with those obtained using the probability matching method (PMM). Rainfall derived from the power law Z-R was found to he highly biased (+90%-l10%) compared to rain gauge measurements for various temporal and spatial integrations. Application of a 36.5-dBZ reflectivity threshold (determined via the PMM) was found to improve the performance of the power law Z-R, reducing the biases substantially to 20%-33%. Correlations between precipitation estimates obtained with either Z-R relationship and mean gauge values are much higher for areal averages than for point locations. Precipitation estimates from the PMM are an improvement over those obtained using the power law in that biases and root-mean-square errors are much lower. The minimum timescale for application of the PMM with the composite radar dataset was found to be several days for area-average precipitation. The minimum spatial scale is harder to quantify, although it is concluded that it is less than 350 sq km. Implications relevant to the WSR-88D system are discussed.
Crosson, William L.↗
Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity
The Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle (MPCV) Program Orion vehicle finite element model (FEM) was updated based on a modal test performed by Lockheed Martin. Due to nonlinearity observed in the test results, linear low force level (LL) and high force level (HL) FEMs were developed for use during various Space Launch System (SLS) flight regimes depending on expected forcing levels. Uncertainty models were derived for the combined MPCV and MPCV Stage Adaptor LL and HL Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) components based on the MPCV structural test article Configuration 4 modal test-analysis correlation results. Subsequently, system-level uncertainty quantification analyses were performed using both models for various SLS flight configurations to determine the impact of the nonlinearity on important system metrics. The system metrics included both transfer functions associated with attitude control and dynamic loads associated with aerodynamic buffeting during ascent. In each case, an independent Monte Carlo (MC) analysis was performed, and no attempt was made to combine the results. The Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) method was used to develop the LL and HL MPCV HCB uncertainty models. The HPV method provides both parametric and non-parametric components of uncertainty. The non-parametric uncertainty accounts for the difference in model-form between the linearized analytical model and the corresponding linearized component test results in the form of mode shapes and frequencies at that force level. This linear model-form uncertainty is implemented in the HPV method using random matrix theory. However, the HPV uncertainty models developed for the linear LL and HL MPCV components do not account for the nonlinearity in the MPCV. With respect to the linearized models, this nonlinearity is also an uncertainty in model form, but in this case, it must be treated independently as an epistemic uncertainty. It represents a lack of knowledge, in contrast to an aleatory uncertainty due to the randomness of a variable. In the case of an epistemic variable, the true value is unknown, only the interval within which it lies is known. Epistemic uncertainty can be reduced with increased knowledge, while in general, aleatory uncertainty cannot. This work combines the epistemic uncertainty due to the MPCV nonlinearity with the parametric and non-parametric uncertainty within the HPV method using a second order propagation approach. The LL and HL test data is augmented with surrogate test data derived from a nonlinear MPCV representation. The impact of the MPCV nonlinearity on system response statistics is determined using a series of cumulative distribution functions in the form of a horsetail plot, or p-box. This results in an interval of probabilities for a specific response value, or an interval of response values at a specific probability.
Daniel C Kammer↗
Applying Flammability Limit Probabilities and the Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure Concept to NASA STD-6001 Test 1
Repeated Test 1 extinction tests near the upward flammability limit are expected to follow a Poisson process trend. This Poisson process trend suggests that rather than define a ULOI and MOC (which requires two limits to be determined), it might be better to define a single upward limit as being where 1/e (where e (approx. equal to 2.7183) is the characteristic time of the normalized Poisson process) of the materials burn, or, rounding, where approximately 1/3 of the samples fail the test (and burn). Recognizing that spacecraft atmospheres will not bound the entire oxygen-pressure parameter space, but actually lie along the normoxic atmosphere control band, we can focus the materials flammability testing along this normoxic band. A Normoxic Upward Limiting Pressure (NULP) is defined that determines the minimum safe total pressure for a material within the constant partial pressure control band. Then, increasing this pressure limit by a factor of safety, we can define the material as being safe to use at the NULP + SF (where SF is on the order of 10 kilopascal, based on existing flammability data). It is recommended that the thickest material to be tested with the current Test 1 igniter should be 3 mm thick (1/8 inches) to avoid the problem of differentiating between an ignition limit and a true flammability limit.
flammability↗
Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Mult-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Joel W Sills↗
Probability Bounds Analysis Applied to Multi-Purpose Crew Vehicle Nonlinearity
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Joel W Sills↗