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DOE OSTI2024

Translating macroecological models to predict microbial establishment probability in an agricultural inoculant introduction

The use of potentially beneficial microorganisms in agriculture (microbial inoculants) has rapidly accelerated in recent years. For microbial inoculants to be effective as agricultural tools, these organisms must be able to survive and persist in novel environments while not destabilizing the resident community or spilling over into adjacent natural ecosystems. Despite the importance of propagule pressure to species introductions, few tools exist in microbial ecology to predict the outcomes of agricultural microbial introductions. Here, we adapt a macroecological propagule pressure model to a microbial scale and present an experimental approach for testing the role of propagule pressure in microbial inoculant introductions. We experimentally determined the risk-release relationship for an IAA-expressing Pseudomonas simiae inoculant in a model monocot system. We then used this relationship to simulate establishment outcomes under a range of application frequencies (propagule number) and inoculant concentrations (propagule size). Our simulations show that repeated inoculant applications may increase establishment, even when increased inoculant concentration does not alter establishment probabilities. Applying ecological modeling approaches like those presented here to microbial inoculants may aid their sustainable use and provide a monitoring tool for microbial inoculants.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Quantile Estimation Approach for Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances.

Applied Probability↗

DOE OSTI2025

Continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine

Here, we propose a continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine (CVQBM) using a powerful energy-based neural network. It can be realized experimentally on a continuous-variable (CV) photonic quantum computer. We used a CV quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm to prepare the essential thermal state and then designed the CVQBM to proficiently generate continuous probability distributions. We applied our method to both classical and quantum data. Using real-world classical data, such as synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images, we generated probability distributions. For quantum data, we used the output of CV quantum circuits. We obtained high fidelity and low Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence showing that our CVQBM learns distributions from given data well and generates data sampling from that distribution efficiently. We also discussed the experimental feasibility of our proposed CVQBM. Our method can be applied to a wide range of real-world problems by choosing an appropriate target distribution (corresponding to, e.g., SAR images, medical images, and risk management in finance). Moreover, our CVQBM is versatile and could be programmed to perform tasks beyond generation, such as anomaly detection.

SAR images↗

DOE OSTI2025

A DECADE of dwarfs: first detection of weak lensing around spectroscopically confirmed low-mass galaxies

We present the first detection of weak gravitational lensing around spectroscopically confirmed dwarf galaxies, using the large overlap between DESI DR1 spectroscopic data and DECADE/DES weak lensing catalogs. A clean dwarf galaxy sample with well-defined redshift and stellar mass cuts enables excess surface mass density measurements in two stellar mass bins ($\log \rm{M}_*=[8.2, 9.2]~M_\odot$ and $\log \rm{M}_*=[9.2, 10.2]~M_\odot$), with signal-to-noise ratios of $5.6$ and $12.4$ respectively. This signal-to-noise drops to $4.5$ and $9.2$ respectively for measurements without applying individual inverse probability (IIP) weights, which mitigates fiber incompleteness from DESI's targeting. The measurements are robust against variations in stellar mass estimates, photometric shredding, and lensing calibration systematics. Using a simulation-based modeling framework with stellar mass function priors, we constrain the stellar mass-halo mass relation and find a satellite fraction of $\simeq 0.3$, which is higher than previous photometric studies but $1.5σ$ lower than $Λ$CDM predictions. We find that IIP weights have a significant impact on lensing measurements and can change the inferred $f_{\rm{sat}}$ by a factor of two, highlighting the need for accurate fiber incompleteness corrections for dwarf galaxy samples. Our results open a new observational window into the galaxy-halo connection at low masses, showing that future massively multiplexed spectroscopic observations and weak lensing data will enable stringent tests of galaxy formation models and $Λ$CDM predictions.

To, Chun-Hao [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗

DOE OSTI2024

Validation of a synthetic fast ion loss detector model for Wendelstein 7-X

Abstract We present the first validated synthetic diagnostic for fast ion loss detectors (FILDs) in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. This model has been developed on, and validated against experimental data from, a FILD provided by the National Institute for Fusion Science (NIFS-FILD), with potential future applicability to the existing Faraday Cup FILD (FC-FILD) on W7-X as well as the scintillating FILD (S-FILD) currently under development. A workflow combining Monte Carlo codes BEAMS3D and ASCOT5 is used to track fast ions produced by neutral beam injection from the moment of ionization until they are thermalized or lost from the last closed flux surface, and from there to a virtual plane which serves as a projection of the entrance aperture to the FILD. Simulations in ASCOT5 are analyzed via a geometric method to determine the probability of transmission through the FILD aperture and onto the detector as a function of normalized momentum, pitch angle, gyrophase, and position at the virtual plane. This probability is then applied to the simulated ions arriving from the plasma, producing a simulated signal from a computationally tractable number of simulated fast ions. Simulated signals are presented for two W7-X experiments with neutral beam injection and quantitatively compared with experimental measurements from the NIFS-FILD diagnostic. An estimate of the frequency of charge-exchange with neutral particles in the edge is performed, and it is found that this process may have a significant impact on the measured signals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

A spatiotemporally explicit and scalable indicator of intact lands across the conterminous United States, 1986–2023

Globally, ecologically intact areas are increasingly scarce. Agricultural expansion into previously uncultivated areas drives the loss of intact lands that might otherwise exhibit high levels of ecological integrity. Thus, the absence of cultivation can be an indicator of intact lands as measured from remote sensing data and thematic maps. Our objective for this study was to develop and compare tractable approaches based on remotely sensed satellite data to map spatial patterns of potentially intact lands across the conterminous U.S. (CONUS). Using annual cultivation probabilities derived from satellite observations, we classified and mapped potentially intact lands across CONUS from 1986 to 2023 at 30 m resolution. We created three maps, first by applying a constant cultivation probability threshold across CONUS, second by varying the threshold state-by-state to maximize state-level overall accuracies, and third by equalizing the state-level user's and producer's accuracies to minimize classification bias. Validation against 800,000+ independent ground samples resulted in CONUS-level overall accuracies ≥85% for the roughly 660 million ha of potentially intact land. Map accuracy varied with the proportion of potentially intact lands across regions, with the Pacific-Mountain and Great Plains regions exhibiting the highest accuracies, while Eastern CONUS exhibited a greater mix of potentially intact and non-intact lands and more moderate map accuracies. These novel maps and approaches can be adapted to different spatiotemporal extents to support conservation and production decisions ranging from species and ecosystems protection to reducing land conversion and climate mitigation.

agriculture↗

DOE OSTI2025

Calculation of ion–ion mutual neutralization rate constants using Landau–Zener theory coupled with trajectory simulations for Ar + –Cl − , Br − , I −

In this computational study, we self-consistently calculate the rate constants of mutual neutralization reactions by incorporating the electron transfer probability, using Landau–Zener state transition theory with inputs derived from ab initio quantum chemistry calculations, into classical trajectory simulations. Electronic structure calculations are done using correlation consistent basis sets with multi-reference configuration interaction to map all the molecular electronic states below the ion-dissociation limit as a function of the distance between the reacting species. Our electronic structure calculations have been significantly improved from our previous work through improved selection of molecular electronic configurations maintaining a fine grid of 1a 0 over a wide range of bond lengths and accurate treatment of spin–orbit couplings. Non-adiabatic coupling matrix elements are calculated with the three-point central difference method near each avoided crossing to estimate the exact crossing point R x and coupling parameter H if , which are inputs to the multi-channel Landau–Zener theory to calculate the electron transition probability. Our approach is applied to estimate the mutual neutralization rate constants for the following ion pairs: Ar + –Cl − , Ar + –Br − , Ar + –I − at ∼133 Pa. Furthermore, our predictions are compared against the experimental data reported. It is seen that the improvement in the electronic structure calculation results in excellent agreement between the simulation results and the available experimental data to within a factor of ∼2 or ∼±50%.

Complete-active space self-consistent field↗

DOE OSTI2025

Probabilistic flux limiters

The stable numerical integration of shocks in compressible flow simulations relies on the reduction or elimination of Gibbs phenomena (unstable, spurious oscillations). A popular method to virtually eliminate Gibbs oscillations caused by numerical discretization in under-resolved simulations is to use a flux limiter. A wide range of flux limiters have been studied in the literature, with recent interest in their optimization via machine learning methods trained on high-resolution datasets. The common use of flux limiters in numerical codes as plug-and-play blackbox components makes them key targets for design improvement. Even for deterministic dynamical models, numerical uncertainty is introduced via coarse-graining required by insufficient computational power to solve all scales of motion. Conventional flux limiters are deterministic and lack the capacity to address uncertainties, both aleatoric (inherent randomness) and epistemic (modeling uncertainty due to limited knowledge), which arise in coarse-grained numerical simulations. Here, we introduce a conceptually distinct type of flux limiter that is designed to handle the effects of randomness in the model and uncertainty in model parameters. Unlike traditional single-function flux limiters, these new probabilistic flux limiters incorporate multiple flux limiting functions, each applied with a learned probability drawn from high-resolution data to mitigate the effects of uncertainty in numerical simulations. This approach departs from traditional single-function limiters by explicitly modeling and incorporating uncertainty into the shock capturing process. Using the example of Burgers' equation as a testbed, we show that a machine learned, probabilistic flux limiter may be used in a shock capturing code to more accurately capture shock profiles. In particular, we show that our probabilistic flux limiter outperforms standard limiters and can be successively improved upon (up to a point) by expanding the set of probabilistically chosen flux limiting functions.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Converting sWeights to probabilities with density ratios

The use of machine learning approaches continues to have many benefits in experimental nuclear and particle physics. One common issue is generating training data which is sufficiently realistic to give reliable results. Here we advocate using real experimental data as the source of training data and demonstrate how one might subtract background contributions through the use of probabilistic weights which can be readily applied to training data. The sPlot formalism is a common tool used to isolate distributions from different sources. However, the negative sWeights produced by the sPlot technique can cause training problems and poor predictive power. This article demonstrates how density ratio estimation can be applied to convert sWeights to event probabilities, which we call drWeights. The drWeights can then be applied to produce the distributions of interest and are consistent with direct use of the sWeights. This article will also show how decision trees are particularly well suited to convert sWeights, with the benefit of fast prediction rates and adaptability to aspects of experimental data such as the data sample size and proportions of different event sources. We also show that a density ratio product approach in which the initial drWeights are reweighted by an additional converter gives substantially better results.

Glazier, Derek I. [Univ. of Glasgow, Scotland (Uni↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel framework for increasing research transparency: Exploring the connection between diversity and innovation

A split sample/dual method research protocol is demonstrated to increase transparency while reducing the probability of false discovery. We apply the protocol to examine whether diversity in ownership teams increases or decreases the likelihood of a firm reporting a novel innovation using data from the 2018 United States Census Bureau’s Annual Business Survey. Transparency is increased in three ways: 1) all specification testing and identifying potentially productive models is done in an exploratory subsample that 2) preserves the validity of hypothesis test statistics fromde novoestimation in the holdout confirmatory sample with 3) all findings publicly documented in an earlier registered report and in this journal publication. Bayesian estimation procedures that leverage information from the exploratory stage included in the confirmatory stage estimation replace traditional frequentist null hypothesis significance testing. In addition to increasing statistical power by using information from the full sample, Bayesian methods directly estimate a probability distribution for the magnitude of an effect, allowing much richer inference. Estimated magnitudes of diversity along academic discipline, race, ethnicity, and foreign-born status dimensions are positively associated with innovation. A maximally diverse ownership team on these dimensions would be roughly six times more likely to report new-to-market innovation than a homophilic team.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Artificial Intelligence and Machine Learning Support for Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics

In this research, artificial intelligence and machine learning (ML) methods are used to search an uncertain parameter space more efficiently for the most important inputs with respect to response sensitivities. These methods are applied to the Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (xLPR) probabilistic fracture mechanics code used at the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) in support of nuclear regulatory research. This report documents two separate but related sub-tasks: (1) ranking important uncertain input features with respect to target outputs, determined by convergence in confidence intervals for increasing sample sizes using simple random sampling; and (2) implementation of a reduced-order surrogate model for fast, approximate sample generation. Unoptimized readily available off-the-shelf ML models were used in both sub-tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

A New Framework for Interstellar Medium Emission Line Models: Connecting Multiscale Simulations across Cosmological Volumes

The James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) and Atacama Large Millimeter/submillimeter Array have detected emission lines from the ionized interstellar medium (ISM) in some of the first galaxies at z ≳ 6. These measurements present an opportunity to better understand galaxy assembly histories and may allow important tests of state-of-the-art galaxy formation simulations. It is challenging, however, to model these lines in their proper cosmological context. In order to meet this challenge, we introduce a novel subgrid line emission modeling framework. The framework uses the high-z zoom-in simulation suite from the Feedback in Realistic Environments (FIRE) collaboration. The line emission signals from H II regions within each simulated FIRE galaxy are modeled using the semianalytic HIIL INES code. A machine learning approach is then used to determine the conditional probability distribution for the line luminosity to stellar-mass ratio from the H II regions around each simulated stellar particle. This conditional probability distribution can then be applied to predict the line luminosities around stellar particles in lower-resolution, yet larger volume cosmological simulations. As an example, we apply this approach to the IllustrisTNG simulations at z = 6. The resulting predictions for the [O II ], [O III ], and Balmer line luminosities as a function of star formation rate agree well with current observations. Our predictions differ, however, from related works in the literature, which lack detailed subgrid ISM models. This highlights the importance of our multiscale simulation modeling framework. Finally, we provide forecasts for future line luminosity function measurements from the JWST and quantify the cosmic variance in such surveys.

(ISM:) H II regions↗

DOE OSTI2025

Noncollinear ground states of solids with a source-free exchange correlation functional

In this paper, we expand upon the source-free (SF) exchange correlation (XC) functional developed by Sangeeta Sharma and coworkers to plane-wave density functional theory (DFT) based on the projector augmented wave (PAW) method. This constraint is implemented by the current authors within the VASP source code, using a fast Poisson solver that capitalizes on the parallel three-dimensional fast Fourier transforms (FFTs) implemented in VASP. Using this modified XC functional, we explore the improved convergence behavior that results from applying this constraint to the GGA-PBE+U+J functional. In the process, we compare the noncollinear magnetic ground state computed by each functional and their SF counterpart for a select number of magnetic materials in order to provide a metric for comparing with experimentally determined magnetic orderings. We observe significantly improved agreement with experimentally measured magnetic ground-state structures after applying the source-free constraint. Furthermore, we explore the importance of considering probability current densities in spin-polarized systems, even under no applied field. We analyze the XC torque as well, in order to provide theoretical and computational analyses of the net XC magnetic torque induced by the source-free constraint. Along these lines, we highlight the importance of properly considering the real-space integral of the source-free local magnetic XC field. Our analyses on probability currents, net torque, and constant terms draw additional links to the rich body of previous research on spin-current density functional theory (SCDFT), and pave the way for future extensions and corrections to the SF corrected XC functional.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning for fundamental spectroscopic and thermodynamic data of actinides and lanthanides

Accurately modeling optical spectra with absolute radiometric intensities is vital for nuclear forensics applications that depend on characterizing optical emissions from energetic nuclear phenomena. This requires precise knowledge of the individual atomic transition probabilities, known as Einstein A-coefficients, for each emission line. Obtaining these values theoretically or experimentally is often impractical due to the complex electronic structures and the number of transitions involved in atoms relevant to nuclear applications. In this study, we explore the use of machine learning to predict the Einstein A coefficients for atomic transitions. Seven models were evaluated that ranged from deep learning to decision tree algorithms, and found that gradient boosting performed best, specifically the Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGB) architecture, achieving a precision of 86% across transitions of 36 elements. Furthermore, the model was cross-validated using published transition probabilities reported in the literature and applied to estimate Pu plasma temperatures from a previous experiment conducted at Savannah River National Laboratory.

Atomic spectroscopy↗

DOE OSTI2024

Coverage, repulsion, and reactivity of hydrogen on High-Entropy alloys

Modeling hydrogen evolution reaction (HER) activity probability on IrPdPtRhRu(1 1 1) high-entropy alloys. Determining hydrogen coverages based on ligand effects and generalized hydrogen–hydrogen repulsion. The rate of H 2 formation is highly impacted by the level of hydrogen coverage on the catalyst surface. In search of optimal catalytic properties high-entropy alloys (HEA) are promising candidates that utilize the compositional space of multiple elements. Based on simulations of HEA model (1 1 1) surfaces with a range of hydrogen coverages, distributions of binding energies are used to construct a framework that approximates the probability that adsorbed hydrogen may lead to the formation of H 2 as a function of applied potential. By optimizing the alloy compositions for the highest activity probability at given potentials the best and most efficient catalyst candidates for HER can be identified. Treating hydrogen–hydrogen repulsion effects and binding energy separately, we find that the repulsion is larger for HEAs than for pure metals. Differing isotherm slopes in the mean adsorption and desorption energies demonstrate a possible hysteresis for hydrogen adsorption on HEAs.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Impact of Resonant Magnetic Perturbations on the Toroidal Location of the Runaway Electron Final Loss Strike Point

It is demonstrated that the peak toroidal impact phase of the post-disruption runaway electrons (REs) can be varied shot-to-shot by means of applied static non-axisymmetric (3D) magnetic fields, or resonant magnetic perturbations (RMPs). In the experiments, high-current (500 kA), purged RE plateaus (i.e. low impurity post-disruption plasmas with current carried completely by REs) were terminated on the DIII-D tokamak center post (CP). The global toroidal impact peak of the REs appears to be dominantly set by the toroidal phase of a wall-locked tearing mode, typically (m/n) = (2/1), but sometimes (m/n) = (3/2). In the absence of external RMP, the locked mode reliably locks close to a preferred toroidal phase Φ ≃ 75◦ probably set by intrinsic error fields. With applied RMP, the locked mode and RE impact phase is pushed to a new location. When the tearing mode is (m/n) = (2/1), the phase is well controlled and tracks the applied RMP phase, but in the case of an (m/n) = (3/2) tearing mode, the new phase location is not well controlled. These results could have application in ITER and other fusion power plant (FPP) - sized tokamaks as a method for spreading disruption first wall damage from REs

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Refining fast calorimeter simulations with a Schrödinger Bridge

Machine learning-based simulations, especially calorimeter simulations, are promising tools for approximating the precision of classical high energy physics simulations with a fraction of the generation time. Nearly all methods proposed so far learn neural networks that map a random variable with a known probability density, like a Gaussian, to realistic-looking events. In many cases, physics events are not close to Gaussian and so these neural networks have to learn a highly complex function. We study an alternative approach: Schrödinger bridge Quality Improvement via Refinement of Existing Lightweight Simulations (SQuIRELS). SQuIRELS leverages the power of diffusion-based neural networks and Schrödinger bridges to map between samples where the probability density is not known explicitly. We apply SQuIRELS to the task of refining a classical fast simulation to approximate a full classical simulation. On simulated calorimeter events, we find that SQuIRELS is able to reproduce highly non-trivial features of the full simulation with a fraction of the generation time.

Calorimeter methods↗

DOE OSTI2026

Beam loss modeling and mitigation due to intra-beam stripping

Intra-Beam Stripping (IBS) is a critical beam loss mechanism in high-intensity H- linacs and presents a significant limitation to increasing beam power. This work presents a computational framework to evaluate and mitigate IBS-induced beam loss along the Spallation Neutron Source (SNS) LINAC. Our calculation is based on an analytic theory and involves evaluation of a 9D integral using the Monte-Carlo technique. We first benchmarked our calculations against simplified, analytically solvable cases. We then applied our algorithm to Gaussian bunches with a known probability density function (PDF). We next expanded our algorithm to arbitrary bunch distributions using the Neural Spline Flow (NSF) models trained on PyORBIT tracking data. In the future, we plan to validate our algorithm experimentally and apply it to design IBS mitigation strategies.

Nln, Shivam [ORNL]↗