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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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14 records
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NASA NTRS2017

On the Dependence of Cloud Feedbacks on Physical Parameterizations in WRF Aquaplanet Simulations

We investigate the effects of physical parameterizations on cloud feedback uncertainty in response to climate change. For this purpose, we construct an ensemble of eight aquaplanet simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. In each WRF‐derived simulation, we replace only one parameterization at a time while all other parameters remain identical. By doing so, we aim to (i) reproduce cloud feedback uncertainty from state‐of‐the‐art climate models and (ii) understand how parametrizations impact cloud feedbacks. Our results demonstrate that this ensemble of WRF simulations, which differ only in physical parameterizations, replicates the range of cloud feedback uncertainty found in state‐of‐the‐art climate models. We show that microphysics and convective parameterizations govern the magnitude and sign of cloud feedbacks, mostly due to tropical low‐level clouds in subsidence regimes. Finally, this study highlights the advantages of using WRF to analyze cloud feedback mechanisms owing to its plug‐and‐play parameterization capability.

Cesana, Gregory↗
NASA NTRS2019

Simulated Phase-dependent Spectra of Terrestrial Aquaplanets in M Dwarf Systems

Orbital phase-dependent variations in thermal emission and reflected stellar energy spectra can provide meaningful constraints on the climate states of terrestrial extrasolar planets orbiting M dwarf stars. Spatial distributions of water vapor, clouds, and surface ice are controlled by climate. In turn, water, in each of its thermodynamic phases, imposes significant modulations to thermal and reflected planetary spectra. Here we explore these characteristic spectral signals, based on 3D climate simulations of Earth-sized aquaplanets orbiting M dwarf stars near the habitable zone. By using 3D models, we can self-consistently predict surface temperatures and the location ofwater vapor, clouds, and surface ice in the climate system. Habitable zone planets in M dwarf systems are expected to be in synchronous rotation with their host star and thus present distinct differences in emitted and reflected energy fluxes depending on the observed hemisphere. Here we illustrate that icy, temperate, and incipient runaway greenhouse climate states exhibit phase-dependent spectral signals that enable their characterization.

Wolf, E. T.↗
NASA NTRS1997

The Onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation Within an Aquaplanet Model

A series of numerical experiments using a two-level atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) were performed for the purpose of investigating the coupling between sea surface temperature (SST) profile and the onset of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). The AGCM was modified to run as an aquaplane with all seasonal forcing removed. SST distributions based on the New Global Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature (GISST) Data Set for 1903-1994 were generated then modified to vary the north-south gradient and tropical temperatures. It was found that the MJO signal did not depend on the SST temperature gradients but rather on the absolute temperature of the equatorial region, EOF analysis revealed that the SST distribution which generated the strongest MJO signal produced a periodic fluctuation in velocity potential at the 250 millibar level with a phase speed of 15 m/s, and a periodicity of 30 days which falls within the shortest limit of observed oscillations. This distribution also possessed the coolest equatorial SSTs which suggests that increased stability in the atmosphere favors the occurrence of organized MJO propagation.

Colon, Edward↗
NASA NTRS2018

Aerosol Midlatitude Cyclone Indirect Effects in Observations and High-Resolution Simulations

Aerosol-cloud interactions are a major source of uncertainty in inferring the climate sensitivity from the observational record of temperature. The adjustment of clouds to aerosol is a poorly constrained aspect of these aerosol-cloud interactions. Here, we examine the response of midlatitude cyclone cloud properties to a change in cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC). Idealized experiments in high-resolution, convection-permitting global aquaplanet simulations with constant CDNC are compared to 13 years of remote-sensing observations. Observations and idealized aquaplanet simulations agree that increased warm conveyor belt (WCB) moisture flux into cyclones is consistent with higher cyclone liquid water path (CLWP). When CDNC is increased a larger LWP is needed to give the same rain rate. The LWP adjusts to allow the rain rate to be equal to the moisture flux into the cyclone along the WCB. This results in an increased CLWP for higher CDNC at a fixed WCB moisture flux in both observations and simulations. If observed cyclones in the top and bottom tercile of CDNC are contrasted it is found that they have not only higher CLWP but also cloud cover and albedo. The difference in cyclone albedo between the cyclones in the top and bottom third of CDNC is observed by CERES to be between 0.018 and 0.032, which is consistent with a 4.6-8.3 Wm(exp -2) in-cyclone enhancement in upwelling shortwave when scaled by annual-mean insolation. Based on a regression model to observed cyclone properties, roughly 60% of the observed variability in CLWP can be explained by CDNC and WCB moisture flux.

Mccoy, Daniel T.↗
NASA NTRS2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part III: Simulated Observables - The Return of the Spectrum

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI) is a community project that aims to quantify how differences in general circulation models (GCMs) could impact the climate prediction for TRAPPIST-le and, subsequently its atmospheric characterization in transit. Four GCMs have participated in THAI so far: ExoCAM, LMD-Generic, ROCKE-3D and the UM. This paper, focused on the simulated observations, is the third part of a trilogy, following the analysis of two land planet scenarios (part I) and two aquaplanet scenarios (part II). Here, we show a robust agreement between the simulated spectra and the number of transits estimated to detect the land planet atmospheres. For the cloudy aquaplanet ones, a 5-σ detection of CO2 could be achieved in about 10 transits if the atmosphere contains at least 1 bar of CO2. That number can vary by 41- 56% depending on the GCM used to predict the terminator profiles, principally due to differences in the cloud deck altitude, with ExoCAM and LMD-G producing higher clouds than ROCKE-3D and UM. Therefore, for the first time, this work provides "GCM uncertainty error bars" of ~ 50% that need to be considered in future analyses of transmission spectra. We also analyzed the inter-transit variability induced by weather patterns and changes of terminator cloudiness between transits. Its magnitude differs significantly between the GCMs but its impact on the transmission spectra is within the measurement uncertainties. THAI has demonstrated the importance of model intercomparison for exoplanets and also paved the way for a larger project to develop an intercomparison meta-framework, namely the Climates Using Interactive Suites of Intercomparisons Nested for Exoplanet Studies (CUISINES).

Exoplanet atmospheres↗
NASA NTRS1998

Assessing the Importance of the Evaporation-Wind Feedback Mechanism in the Modulation of Simulated Madden-Julian Oscillations

An examination of simulated Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) response to active and suppressed air-sea interactions is made using an aquaplanet model employing a realistic representation of the hydrologic cyle. In general, the evaporation-wind feedback (EWF) results from a coupling between tropical zonal surface wind stresses and evaporation anomalies. Recent observational and theoretical studies have questioned the significance of EWF in sustaining the predominantly wavenumber 1 eastward propagating mode commonly attributed to the interaction between large scale convergence and cumulus-scale convection (conditional instability of the second kind, CISK). To ascertain the nature of the EWF dependence on lower boundary conditions and thus quantify its effect on MJO development, a series of numerical experiments were conducted employing various zonally symmetric sea surface temperature (SST) distributions with active and suppressed EWF mechanisms. Results suggest that a correlation exists between tropical SSTs and the efficacy of the EWF in vertically redistributing heat acquired through surface wind stresses. It has been determined that the removal of the EWF is not a crucial factor in the dampening of the simulated MJO at high equatorial SSTs. The additional energy fed into the developing convective mode by the EWF selectively amplifies higher order wave modes in all numerical experiments thus boosting overall variances in oscillatory responses.

Colon, Edward↗
NASA NTRS2017

NIR-Driven Moist Upper Atmospheres of Synchronously Rotating Temperate Terrestrial Exoplanets

H2O is a key molecule in characterizing atmospheres of temperate terrestrial planets, and observations of transmission spectra are expected to play a primary role in detecting its signatures in the near future. The detectability of H2O absorption features in transmission spectra depends on the abundance of water vapor in the upper part of the atmosphere. We study the three-dimensional distribution of atmospheric H2O for synchronously rotating Earth-sized aquaplanets using the general circulation model (GCM) ROCKE-3D, and examine the effects of total incident flux and stellar spectral type. We observe a more gentle increase of the water vapor mixing ratio in response to increased incident flux than one-dimensional models suggest, in qualitative agreement with the climate-stabilizing effect of clouds around the substellar point previously observed in GCMs applied to synchronously rotating planets. However, the water vapor mixing ratio in the upper atmosphere starts to increase while the surface temperature is still moderate. This is explained by the circulation in the upper atmosphere being driven by the radiative heating due to absorption by water vapor and cloud particles, causing efficient vertical transport of water vapor. Consistently, the water vapor mixing ratio is found to be well-correlated with the near-infrared portion of the incident flux. We also simulate transmission spectra based on the GCM outputs, and show that for the more highly irradiated planets, the H2O signatures may be strengthened by a factor of a few, loosening the observational demands for a H2O detection.

Fujii, Yuka↗
NASA NTRS2017

Large-Scale Transport Responses to Tropospheric Circulation Changes Using GEOS-5

The mean age since air was last at the Northern Hemisphere midlatitude surface is a fundamental property of tropospheric transport. Recent comparisons among chemistry climate models, however, reveal that there are large differences in the mean age among models and that these differences are most likely related to differences in tropical (parameterized) convection. Here we use aquaplanet simulations of the Goddard Earth Observing System Model Version 5 (GEOS-5) to explore the sensitivity of the mean age to changes in the tropical circulation. Tropical circulation changes are forced by prescribed localized off-equatorial warm sea surface temperature anomalies that (qualitatively) reproduce the convection and circulation differences among the comprehensive models. Idealized chemical species subject to prescribed OH loss are also integrated in parallel in order to illustrate the impact of tropical transport changes on interhemispheric constituent transport.

Orbe, Clara↗
NASA NTRS2018

Climates of Warm Earth-Like Planets. I. 3D Model Simulations

We present a large ensemble of simulations of an Earth-like world with increasing insolation and rotation rate. Unlike previous work utilizing idealized aquaplanet congurations we focus our simulations on modern Earth-like topography. The orbital period is the same as modern Earth, but with zero obliquity and eccentricity. The atmosphere is 1 bar N2-dominated with CO2=400 ppmv and CH4=1 ppmv. The simulations include two types of oceans; one without ocean heat transport (OHT) between grid cells as has been commonly used in the exoplanet literature, while the other is a fully coupled dynamic bathtub type ocean. The dynamical regime transitions that occur as day length increases induce climate feedbacks producing cooler temperatures, rst via the reduction of water vapor with increasing rotation period despite decreasing shortwave cooling by clouds, and then via decreasing water vapor and increasing shortwave cloud cooling, except at the highest insolations. Simulations without OHT are more sensitive to insolation changes for fast rotations while slower rotations are relatively insensitive to ocean choice. OHT runs with faster rotations tend to be similar with gyres transporting heat poleward making them warmer than those without OHT. For slower rotations OHT is directed equator-ward and no high latitude gyres are apparent. Uncertainties in cloud parameterization preclude a precise determination of habitability but do not a affect robust aspects of exoplanet climate sensitivity. This is the first paper in a series that will investigate aspects of habitability in the simulations presented herein. The datasets from this study are open source and publicly available.

Planetary systems↗
NASA NTRS2020

Dim Prospects for Transmission Spectra of Ocean Earths Around M Stars

The search for water-rich Earth-sized exoplanets around low-mass stars is rapidly gaining attention because they represent the best opportunity to characterize habitable planets in the near future. Understanding the atmospheres of these planets and determining the optimal strategy for characterizing them through transmission spectroscopy with our upcoming instrumentation is essential in order to constrain their environments. For this study, we present simulated transmission spectra of tidally locked Earth-sized ocean-covered planets around late-M to mid-K stellar spectral types, utilizing GCM modeling results previously published by Kopparapu et al. (2017) as inputs for our radiative transfer calculations performed using NASA's Planetary Spectrum Generator (psg.gsfc.nasa.gov; Villanueva et al. (2018)). We identify trends in the depth of H2O spectral features as a function of planet surface temperature and rotation rate. These trends allow us to calculate the exposure times necessary to detect water vapor in the atmospheres of aquaplanets through transmission spectroscopy with the upcoming James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) as well as several future flagship space telescope concepts under consideration (LUVOIR and OST) for a target list constructed from the TESS Input Catalog (TIC). Our calculations reveal that transmission spectra for water-rich Earth-sized planets around low-mass stars will be dominated by clouds, with spectral features < 20 ppm, and only a small subset of TIC stars would allow for the characterization of an ocean planet in the Habitable Zone. We thus present a careful prioritization of targets that are most amenable to follow-up characterizations with next-generation instrumentation, in order to assist the community in efficiently utilizing precious telescope time.

exoplanet atmospheres↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth's next supercontinent climate: how tectonics, rotation rate, & insolation affect climate

We will explore two deep future Earth climate scenarios using a 3‐D GCM when the next supercontinent phase is expected to take place. In Amasia (Americas + Asia; forming ~200 Myr from now) the supercontinent forms at high northerly latitudes with the main continents 'squished' north of the equator while an Antarctic subcontinent remains at the south pole. In Aurica (All continents combined ~250 Myr) a supercontinent forms at low latitudes akin to that of a Sturtian topography. We utilize the forward evolution of plate tectonics, solar luminosity, rotation rate, and different potential topographic heights in our study. The climates between these scenarios can be dramatic, with differences in mean surface temperatures approaching several degrees. In particular, the topographic height of the Amasia supercontinent plays a critical role in the climate. These results demonstrate that using simple aquaplanet or modern Earth land/sea masks is insufficient to explore the possible variance in theoretical modeling of extrasolar planetary atmospheres.

supercontinent climate↗
NASA NTRS2022

The TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison (THAI). Part II: Moist Cases - The Two Waterworlds

To identify promising exoplanets for atmospheric characterization and to make the best use of observational data, a thorough understanding of their atmospheres is needed. 3D general circulation models (GCMs) are one of the most comprehensive tools available for this task and will be used to interpret observations of temperate rocky exoplanets. Due to parameterization choices made in GCMs, they can produce different results, even for the same planet. Employing four widely-used exoplanetary GCMs - ExoCAM, LMD-G, ROCKE-3D and the UM - we continue the TRAPPIST-1 Habitable Atmosphere Intercomparison by modeling aquaplanet climates of TRAPPIST-le with a moist atmosphere dominated by either nitrogen or carbon dioxide. Although the GCMs disagree on the details of the simulated regimes, they all predict a temperate climate with neither of the two cases pushed out of the habitable state. Nevertheless, the inter-model spread in the global mean surface temperature is non-negligible: 14 K and 24 K in the nitrogen and carbon dioxide dominated case, respectively. We find substantial inter-model differences in moist variables, with the smallest amount of clouds in LMDGeneric and the largest in ROCKE-3D. ExoCAM predicts the warmest climate for both cases and thus has the highest water vapor content and the largest amount and variability of cloud condensate. The UM tends to produce colder conditions, especially in the nitrogen-dominated case due to a strong negative cloud radiative effect on the day side of TRAPPIST-le. Our study highlights various biases of GCMs and emphasizes the importance of not relying solely on one model to understand exoplanet climates.

TRAPPIST↗
NASA NTRS2019

Habitable Climate Scenarios for Proxima Centauri B with a Dynamic Ocean

The nearby exoplanet Proxima Centauri b will be a prime future target for characterization, despite questions about its retention of water. Climate models with static oceans suggest that Proxima b could harbor a small dayside surface ocean despite its weak instellation. We present the first climate simulations of Proxima b with a dynamic ocean. We find that an ocean-covered Proxima b could have a much broader area of surface liquid water but at much colder temperatures than previously suggested, due to ocean heat transport and/or depression of the freezing point by salinity. Elevated greenhouse gas concentrations do not necessarily produce more open ocean because of dynamic regime transitions between a state with an equatorial Rossby-Kelvin wave pattern and a state with a day-night circulation. For an evolutionary path leading to a highly saline ocean, Proxima b could be an inhabited, mostly open ocean planet with halophilic life. A fresh water ocean produces a smaller liquid region than does an Earth salinity ocean. An ocean planet in 3:2 spin-orbit resonance has a permanent tropical waterbelt for moderate eccentricity. A larger vs. smaller area of surface liquid water for similar equilibrium temperature may be distinguishable using the amplitude of the thermal phase curve. Simulations of Proxima Centauri b may be a model for the habitability of weakly irradiated planets orbiting slightly cooler or warmer stars, e.g., in the TRAPPIST-1, LHS 1140, GJ 273, and GJ 3293 systems.

Aquaplanet↗