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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 19 records
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Comparison of Damage from Hydrocode Simulations of an Asteroid Airburst or Impact on Land, in Deep, or in Shallow Water

If an asteroid is discovered to be on a collision course with Earth and there is insufficient time for a deflection effort to make it miss Earth completely, should it be redirected to a land or ocean impact? While distance from densely populated areas should obviously be maximized, the differing ability of air blast, seismic waves, and tsunami waves to cause damage at distance does not make the choice between land and ocean impacts an immediately obvious one. More broadly this work is a step towards improving damage models from asteroid impacts. This extended abstract follows the hypothetical scenario of the 2017 IAA Planetary Defense Conference where a 100-250m diameter asteroid is on a potential impact course with Earth. A hydrocode was used to simulate impacts into the most sparsely populated areas along the eastern end of the hypothetical impact corridor- specifically in the Gobi Desert, in the shallow waters of the Sea of Japan, and in the deep waters of the Japan Trench in the Pacific Ocean.

Shallow Water↗
NASA NTRS2019

A Ground Footprint Eccentricity Model For Asteroid Airbursts

Uncertainties in early observations of potentially hazardous asteroids result in preliminary impact corridors that can stretch across large portions of the Earth’s surface. At this early stage of detection, the corridor width and potential for damage are typically estimated using techniques from nuclear weapons research. These estimates often employ spherical blast assumptions resulting in a constant width impact corridor. In actuality, however, the ground damage footprint of obliquely entering asteroids is generally roughly elliptical or “butterfly” shaped, with the major axis extending in the cross range direction and the minor axis aligned with ground-track of the meteoroid. Since actual ground footprints for oblique entries may have aspect ratios greater than two or three, the assumption of a circular blast may significantly underestimate the area of the impact swath and the at-risk population. This work develops an engineering model that can be used to quickly estimate the eccentricity of the ground footprint as a function of local impact parameters. This yields vastly improved local estimates of the corridor width and can significantly enhance the accuracy of risk analysis.

Aftosmis, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Simulation-Based Height of Burst Map for Asteroid Airburst Damage Prediction

Entry and breakup models predict that airburst in the Earth's atmosphere is likely for asteroids up to approximately 200 meters in diameter. Objects of this size can deposit over 250 megatons of energy into the atmosphere. Fast-running ground damage prediction codes for such events rely heavily upon methods developed from nuclear weapons research to estimate the damage potential for an airburst at altitude. (Collins, 2005; Mathias, 2017; Hills and Goda, 1993). In particular, these tools rely upon the powerful yield scaling laws developed for point-source blasts that are used in conjunction with a Height of Burst (HOB) map to predict ground damage for an airburst of a specific energy at a given altitude. While this approach works extremely well for yields as large as tens of megatons, it becomes less accurate as yields increase to the hundreds of megatons potentially released by larger airburst events. This study revisits the assumptions underlying this approach and shows how atmospheric buoyancy becomes important as yield increases beyond a few megatons. We then use large-scale three-dimensional simulations to construct numerically generated height of burst maps that are appropriate at the higher energy levels associated with the entry of asteroids with diameters of hundreds of meters. These numerically generated HOB maps can then be incorporated into engineering methods for damage prediction, significantly improving their accuracy for asteroids with diameters greater than 80-100 m.

Burst Map↗
NASA NTRS2016

Tsunami Generation from Asteroid Airburst and Ocean Impact and Van Dorn Effect

Airburst - In the simulations explored energy from the airburst couples very weakly with the water making tsunami dangerous over a shorter distance than the blast for asteroid sizes up to the maximum expected size that will still airburst (approx.250MT). Future areas of investigation: - Low entry angle airbursts create more cylindrical blasts and might couple more efficiently - Bursts very close to the ground will increase coupling - Inclusion of thermosphere (>80km altitude) may show some plume collapse effects over a large area although with much less pressure center dot Ocean Impact - Asteroid creates large cavity in ocean. Cavity backfills creating central jet. Oscillation between the cavity and jet sends out tsunami wave packet. - For deep ocean impact waves are deep water waves (Phase speed = 2x Group speed) - If the tsunami propagation and inundation calculations are correct for the small (<250MT) asteroids in these simulations where they impact deep ocean basins, the resulting tsunami is not a significant hazard unless particularly close to vulnerable communities. Future work: - Shallow ocean impact. - Effect of continental shelf and beach profiles - Tsunami vs. blast damage radii for impacts close to populated areas - Larger asteroids below presumed threshold of global effects (Ø200 - 800m).

Tsunami↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Effects of Realistic Impact-processed Asteroid Topology on Atmospheric Airbursts

When small asteroids (∼10–200 m) enter Earth’s atmosphere they can break up before hitting the ground, releasing a considerable amount of energy in what is known as an atmospheric airburst. To date, numerous studies have examined how an asteroid’s strength, size, shape, and entry characteristics affect the breakup process; but few have assessed the effects of heterogenous internal topologies. We present a two-step high-fidelity simulation approach, which we use to model the atmospheric breakup of asteroids with realistic impact-processed internal topologies and their associated ground effects. In the first step, we model the asteroid as it is impacted to generate an “impact-processed” topology. We then map the resulting fractures (i.e., damage field) from that simulation to the initial state of an atmospheric breakup simulation. For both phases, we use the smoothed particle hydrodynamics code Spheral++. As a demonstrative example, we apply our new simulation pipeline to a Tunguska-scale impactor (50 m diameter, 20 km s −1 entry velocity, and 45° angle) in a case study comparing impact-processed and fully intact asteroids in both planar 2D and full 3D. For sufficiently strong asteroids, we find that impact processing generally causes the asteroid to break up at higher altitudes. We also observe that impact-processed asteroids break up into smaller fragments than objects with equivalent properties that have not been impact-processed.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗
NASA NTRS2018

Modeling Issues in Asteroid-Generated Tsunamis

This report studies tsunamis caused by asteroids, both those that arise from atmospheric blast waves moving across the water surface from airburst asteroids, and those that arise when the asteroid reaches the water and forms a crater. We perform numerical experiments that compare simulations using depth-averaged models (shallow water and several forms of Boussinesq) with linearized Euler (acoustics plus gravity) and ALE hydrocode simulations. We find that neither of the depth-averaged models do a good job of initiating the tsunami, but in some cases can be used to propagate a solution generated by a higher-fidelity method. A list of our conclusions and recommendations for further study is given in Section 5.

Berger, Marsha J.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulation of asteroid geometry variance on airburst threat

For an atmospheric airburst the primary source of concern when assessing uncertainty is the size and velocity. Determining these properties provides the basis for threat assessment, as the total energy of the asteroid may then be estimated, and the threat investigated thoroughly. Even with clarity as to how much energy an asteroid may deposit, a great deal of uncertainty still exists for the actual energy deposition process. One such source of uncertainty is the geometry of the incoming asteroid. The geometry of an asteroid will alter the stress distribution during entry, which adds uncertainty to when fracture will occur. Here, in this study, we use Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics to model the atmospheric airburst of Tunguska-scale asteroids with varying geometric profiles, including a sphere, ellipsoid, binary and superellipsoid. Each asteroid is modeled as a homogenous structure with strength. We assess uncertainty through a series of planar 2D simulation cases for each geometry, comparing the source of stochasticity across geometries. A single 3D airburst simulation for each geometry is also analyzed. Additionally, the 3D cases are compared to the highly uncertain Tunguska event, predicting variance in burst height across geometries, but all bounded by theoretical burst heights proposed for Tunguska.

Airburst↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Airburst & Blast Damage Modeling Sensitivities for Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

Blast overpressure from a high-energy airburst or surface impact is the primary source of damage from potentially hazardous asteroid strikes. There are many sources of uncertainty in evaluating these potential damage risks, both in the approaches used to model the entry, breakup, and airburst behaviors of diverse asteroid properties, and in the blast modeling approaches used to estimate the ground damage from these very large-scale, high-energy events. In this study, we use NASA’s Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to investigate trends and sensitivities in asteroid airburst altitudes and the resulting blast damage estimates across a range of asteroid sizes. In particular, we show how uncertainties in asteroid breakup behavior and effective airburst altitudes combine with height-of-burst (HOB) blast damage models to produce key sensitivities and trends in the amount of damage expected from different asteroid sizes and airburst altitudes. We show airburst altitude ranges and probabilities stemming from asteroid entry and breakup modeling uncertainties, compare differences between traditional nuclear-based HOB blast models and simulation-based HOB models for larger asteroid energies, and show how the resulting interplay between likely burst altitudes and optimal burst heights affects blast damage trends across different asteroid sizes. Finally, we combine the relative likelihoods of asteroid sizes, airburst altitudes, and resulting blast damage severity to evaluate what airburst regimes pose the highest overall level of risk (when considering both the relative likelihood and scale of potential damage) for a mid-sized asteroid threat scenario. Results show what asteroid size regimes are most sensitive to airburst and blast modeling uncertainties, provide insight into nonintuitive trends in the size and severity of blast damage expected from different airburst events, and highlight where additional blast modeling studies or refinements may help improve future impact risk estimates

ATAP↗
DOE OSTI2026

Validation of SPH code Spheral to model interacting solid bodies in a supersonic flow

Contemporary discussions of planetary defense involve analyzing the risks posed by smaller sized, 20 to 200 m diameter, asteroids which are capable of breaking up in the atmosphere and generating a blast wave. Consequence assessments for this size class of asteroids are performed through fast-running analytic or semi-analytic models which are informed by high-fidelity hydrocode simulations of asteroid entry and breakup. However, insufficient historical data necessitates validating the independent physical processes which dominate airburst events. Here, the Fluid Solid Interface Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics solver was previously used by Pearl et al. in 2023 to model the Chelyabinsk airburst and is used here to perform a series of validation simulations. The first effort involves modeling a cylinder in a hypersonic flow and comparing the bow shock geometry to that predicted by analytic theory. The second effort involves modeling the separation of two spherical bodies in supersonic flow and validating against experimental footage. Combined, these exercises demonstrate the ability of the code to model the flight-path of interacting solid bodies in a hypersonic flow.

Airburst↗
NASA NTRS2017

In Pursuit of Improving Airburst and Ground Damage Predictions: Recent Advances in Multi-Body Aerodynamic Testing and Computational Tools Validation

An airburst from a large asteroid during entry can cause significant ground damage. The damage depends on the energy and the altitude of airburst. Breakup of asteroids into fragments and their lateral spread have been observed. Modeling the underlying physics of fragmented bodies interacting at hypersonic speeds and the spread of fragments is needed for a true predictive capability. Current models use heuristic arguments and assumptions such as pancaking or point source explosive energy release at pre-determined altitude or an assumed fragmentation spread rate to predict airburst damage. A multi-year collaboration between German Aerospace Center (DLR) and NASA has been established to develop validated computational tools to address the above challenge.

Asteroid↗
NASA NTRS2017

Ablation and Heating During Atmospheric Entry and Its Effect on Airburst Risk

Large meteoroids and asteroids entering the atmosphere endure tremendous heating from the shock heated air, and thereby lose a significant fraction of their mass during atmospheric entry a process known as ablation. The predicted evolution of the asteroids mass as it passes through the atmosphere can affect both the predicted energy deposition profile relevant to an airburst event, or the residual mass that strikes the ground in the case of an impact event. This presentation is divided roughly into two parts. In the first part, an overview of traditional models for heat transfer and ablation that are historically used in the meteor physics community is presented, and the validity in the asteroid entry regime discussed. Sensitivity analyses performed using the recently developed Fragment-Cloud Model (FCM) will be presented which show illustrate the range of sizes and entry parameters for which the predicted asteroid threat is most sensitive to the models for ablation and heat transfer. The second part of the presentation shall focus on recent work done under NASAs Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) to develop new models for heat transfer and ablation using high-fidelity numerical simulation in concert with state-of-the-art experiments. Coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD)radiation transport simulations preformed using the state-of-the-art entry modeling tools at NASA show that, for large meteoroids and asteroids, there can significant attenuation of the heat transfer to the surface (95 in some cases) by the products of ablation. In addition to the heat transfer, new models for the material response and ablation of asteroidal material have been developed [cite]. In the current work, we present finding from recent novel experiments performed in the arc jet facility at NASA Ames, which allows us to, in part, simulate the extreme environment experienced by the asteroid during entry. Briefly, the experimental set-up was comprised of a 1.5 conical article of machined H5 chondrite, which was exposed to a high-enthalpy flow resulting in approximately 4 kWcm2 of heating to the surface. A still frame capture from high-speed video taken during this experiment can be seen in Figure 1. In this figure, we can observe some of the major mechanisms for meteoroid ablation, such as melt flow, spallation (mechanical removal of material), and vaporization. Major findings from this, and other experiments will be discussed, as well progress on utilizing the data from the experiments to inform and develop improved models for ablation.

Asteroids↗
NASA NTRS2018

Probabilistic Assessment of Tunguska-Scale Asteroid Impacts

The Tunguska meteor airburst that felled trees across >2000 sq km of Siberian forest in 1908 has been extensively studied and modeled in attempts to deduce its size, properties, and impact characteristics. However, most of the existing modeling and simulation studies have investigated a small subset of cases based on assumptions of representative densities, velocities, or other properties. In this study, we use the Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) model to assess 50 million Tunguska-scale asteroid impacts, covering a full range of potential impactor properties. The impact cases are sampled from probabilistic distributions representing our current knowledge of asteroid properties, entry trajectories, and size frequencies, and the entry, airburst, and resulting ground damage are modeled for each case. The results provide a broader characterization of the range and relative likelihood of asteroid properties that could yield Tunguska-scale impacts. The full results of this study and a companion study on impact frequencies are pending publication in an upcoming Tunguska special edition of Icarus [1,2].

Wheeler, Lorien↗