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Consistent Evaluation of ACOS-GOSAT, BESD-SCIAMACHY, CarbonTracker, and MACC Through Comparisons to TCCON

Consistent validation of satellite CO2 estimates is a prerequisite for using multiple satellite CO2 measurements for joint flux inversion, and for establishing an accurate long-term atmospheric CO2 data record. Harmonizing satellite CO2 measurements is particularly important since the differences in instruments, observing geometries, sampling strategies, etc. imbue different measurement characteristics in the various satellite CO2 data products. We focus on validating model and satellite observation attributes that impact flux estimates and CO2 assimilation, including accurate error estimates, correlated and random errors, overall biases, biases by season and latitude, the impact of coincidence criteria, validation of seasonal cycle phase and amplitude, yearly growth, and daily variability. We evaluate dry-air mole fraction (X(sub CO2)) for Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) (Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space, ACOS b3.5) and SCanning Imaging Absorption spectroMeter for Atmospheric CHartographY (SCIAMACHY) (Bremen Optimal Estimation DOAS, BESD v2.00.08) as well as the CarbonTracker (CT2013b) simulated CO2 mole fraction fields and the Monitoring Atmospheric Composition and Climate (MACC) CO2 inversion system (v13.1) and compare these to Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) observations (GGG2012/2014). We find standard deviations of 0.9, 0.9, 1.7, and 2.1 parts per million vs. TCCON for CT2013b, MACC, GOSAT, and SCIAMACHY, respectively, with the single observation errors 1.9 and 0.9 times the predicted errors for GOSAT and SCIAMACHY, respectively. We quantify how satellite error drops with data averaging by interpreting according to (error(sup 2) equals a(sup 2) plus b(sup 2) divided by n (with n being the number of observations averaged, a the systematic (correlated) errors, and b the random (uncorrelated) errors). a and b are estimated by satellites, coincidence criteria, and hemisphere. Biases at individual stations have year-to-year variability of 0.3 parts per million, with biases larger than the TCCON predicted bias uncertainty of 0.4 parts per million at many stations. We find that GOSAT and CT2013b under-predict the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) between 46 and 53 degrees North latitude, MACC over-predicts between 26 and 37 degrees North latitude, and CT2013b under-predicts the seasonal cycle amplitude in the Southern Hemisphere (SH). The seasonal cycle phase indicates whether a data set or model lags another data set in time. We find that the GOSAT measurements improve the seasonal cycle phase substantially over the prior while SCIAMACHY measurements improve the phase significantly for just two of seven sites. The models reproduce the measured seasonal cycle phase well except for at Lauder_125HR (CT2013b) and Darwin (MACC). We compare the variability within 1 day between TCCON and models in June-July-August; there is correlation between 0.2 and 0.8 in the NH, with models showing 10-50 percent the variability of TCCON at different stations and CT2013b showing more variability than MACC. This paper highlights findings that provide inputs to estimate flux errors in model assimilations, and places where models and satellites need further investigation, e.g., the SH for models and 45-67 degrees North latitude for GOSAT and CT2013b.

ACOS-GOSAT↗

Characterization of OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT biases and errors for flux estimates

We characterize the magnitude of seasonally and spatially varying biases in the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) Version 8 (v8) and the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) Greenhouse Gas Observing SATellite (GOSAT) version 7.3 (v7.3) satellite CO2 retrievals by comparisons to measurements collected by the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) experiment, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) and U. S. Department of Energy (DOE) aircraft, and surface stations. Although the ACOS-GOSAT estimates of the column averaged carbon dioxide (CO2) dry air mole fraction (XCO2) have larger random errors than the OCO-2 XCO2 estimates, and the space-based estimates over land have larger random errors than those over ocean, the systematic errors are similar across both satellites and surface types, 0.6 ± 0.1 ppm. We find similar estimates of systematic error whether dynamic versus geometric coincidences or ESRL/DOE aircraft versus TCCON are used for validation (over land), once validation and co-location errors are accounted for. We also find that areas with sparse throughput of good quality data (due to quality flags and preprocessor selection) over land have ~double the error of regions of high-throughput of good quality data. We characterize both raw and bias-corrected results, finding that bias correction improves systematic errors by a factor of 2 for land observations and improves errors by ~0.2 ppm for ocean. We validate the lowermost tropospheric (LMT) product for OCO-2 and ACOS-GOSAT by comparison to aircraft and surface sites, finding systematic errors of ~1.1 ppm, while having 2-3 times the variability of XCO2. We characterize the time and distance scales of correlations for OCO-2 XCO2 errors, and find error correlations on scales of 0.3 degrees, 5-10 degrees, and 60 days. We find comparable scale lengths for the bias correction term. Assimilation of the OCO-2 bias correction term is used to estimate flux errors resulting from OCO-2 seasonal biases, finding annual flux errors on the order of 0.3 and 0.4 PgC/yr for Transcom-3 ocean and land regions, respectively.

Susan S Kulawik↗

GES DISC Greenhouse Gas Data Sets and Associated Services

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple missions. Hosted data include those from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission (which has observed CO2, CH4, ozone, and water vapor since 2002); legacy water vapor and ozone retrievals from TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS); and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) going back to the early 1980s. GES DISC also archives and supports data from seven projects of the Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program that have ozone and water vapor records. Greenhouse gases data from the A-Train satellite constellation is also available: (1) Aura-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone, nitrous oxide, and water vapor since 2004; (2) Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) CO2 observations since 2009 from the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) task; and (3) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) CO2 data since 2014. The most recent related data set that the GES DISC archives is methane flux for North America, as part of NASAs Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) project. This dataset contains estimates of methane emission in North America based on an inversion of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model constrained by GOSAT observations (Turner et al., 2015). Along with data stewardship, an important focus area of the GES DISC is to enhance the usability of its data and broaden its user base. Users have unrestricted access to a new user-friendly search interface, which includes many services such as variable subsetting, format conversion, quality screening, and quick browse. The majority of the GES DISC data sets are also accessible through Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) and Web Coverage Service (WCS). The latter two services provide more options for specialized subsetting, format conversion, and image viewing. Additional data exploration, data preview, and preliminary analysis capabilities are available via NASA Giovanni, which obviates the need forusers to download the data (Acker and Leptoukh, 2007). Giovanni provides a bridge between the data and science and has been very successful in extending GES DISC data to educational users and to users with limited resources.

data ordering↗

An 8-Year, High-Resolution Reanalysis of Atmospheric CO2 Mixing Ratios Based on OCO-2 and GOSAT-ACOS Retrievals

The NASA GMAO (Global Modeling and Assimilation Office) reanalysis blends OCO-2 (Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2) and GOSAT-ACOS (Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite-Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space) retrievals (top) with GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) model predictions (bottom) to estimate the full 3D (three-dimensional) state of CO2 every 3 hours (middle). This poster describes monthly atmospheric growth rates derived from the reanalysis and an application to aircraft data with the potential to aid bias correction.

GEOS-Carb↗

Overview of NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux-Pilot Project

NASA's space-based observations of physical, chemical and biological parameters in the Earth System along with state-of-the-art modeling capabilities provide unique capabilities for analyses of the carbon cycle. The Carbon Monitoring System is developing an exploratory framework for detecting carbon in the environment and its changes, with a view towards contributing to national and international monitoring activities. The Flux-Pilot Project aims to provide a unified view of land-atmosphere and ocean-atmosphere carbon exchange, using observation-constrained models. Central to the project is the application of NASA's satellite observations (especially MODIS), the ACOS retrievals of the JAXA-GOSAT observations, and the "MERRA" meteorological reanalysis produced with GEOS-S. With a primary objective of estimating uncertainty in computed fluxes, two land- and two ocean-systems are run for 2009-2010 and compared with existing flux estimates. An transport model is used to evaluate simulated CO2 concentrations with in-situ and space-based observations, in order to assess the realism of the fluxes and how uncertainties in fluxes propagate into atmospheric concentrations that can be more readily evaluated. Finally, the atmospheric partial CO2 columns observed from space are inverted to give new estimates of surface fluxes, which are evaluated using the bottom-up estimates and independent datasets. The focus of this presentation will be on the science goals and current achievements of the pilot project, with emphasis on how policy-relevant questions help focus the scientific direction. Examples include the issue of what spatio-temporal resolution of fluxes can be detected from polar-orbiting satellites and whether it is possible to use space-based observations to separate contributions to atmospheric concentrations of (say) fossil-fuel and biological activity

Pawson, Steven↗

Carbon Monitoring System Flux Estimation and Attribution: Impact of ACOS-GOSAT X(CO2) Sampling on the Inference of Terrestrial Biospheric Sources and Sinks

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite 'IBUKI' (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X(CO2)) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is approx.1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X(CO2) observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides approx.1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT's spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance.

biased sampling↗

Global CO2 Distributions over Land from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT)

January 2009 saw the successful launch of the first space-based mission specifically designed for measuring greenhouse gases, the Japanese Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT). We present global land maps (Level 3 data) of column-averaged CO2 concentrations (X(sub CO2)) derived using observations from the GOSAT ACOS retrieval algorithm, for July through December 2009. The applied geostatistical mapping approach makes it possible to generate maps at high spatial and temporal resolutions that include uncertainty measures and that are derived directly from the Level 2 observations, without invoking an atmospheric transport model or estimates of CO2 uptake and emissions. As such, they are particularly well suited for comparison studies. Results show that the Level 3 maps for July to December 2009 on a lO x 1.250 grid, at six-day resolution capture much of the synoptic scale and regional variability of X(sub CO2), in addition to its overall seasonality. The uncertainty estimates, which reflect local data coverage, X(sub CO2) variability, and retrieval errors, indicate that the Southern latitudes are relatively well-constrained, while the Sahara Desert and the high Northern latitudes are weakly-constrained. A probabilistic comparison to the PCTM/GEOS-5/CASA-GFED model reveals that the most statistically significant discrepancies occur in South America in July and August, and central Asia in September to December. While still preliminary, these results illustrate the usefulness of a high spatiotemporal resolution, data-driven Level 3 data product for direct interpretation and comparison of satellite observations of highly dynamic parameters such as atmospheric CO2.

Hammerling, Dorit M.↗