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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2024

Use of Forecast Atmosphere for Earth Entry, Descent, and Landing Modeling

Flight mechanics simulations are used to characterize the performance of Earth entry, descent, and landing vehicles. Atmospheric prediction models are often a key component of these simulations. Global atmospheric models are used for both engineering design due to their ability to define atmospheric properties over a large swath of locations and times as well as used for the availability of atmospheric uncertainties in the models that can be used in statistical performance analysis. However for day-of-flight operations, the use of forecast atmospheres based on more current measurements are beneficial to the accuracy of the performance prediction, including landing locations. Reanalysis of these forecasts can also be used for post-flight analysis, including trajectory reconstruction. This paper describes how forecast atmospheres can be beneficial for Earth entry, descent, and landing analysis and ways these models can be implemented in simulations.

Soumyo Dutta↗
NASA NTRS1990

Forecasting atmospheric angular momentum and length-of-day using operational meteorological models

Forecasts of zonal wind fields produced by the medium-range forecast model of the U.S. National Meteorological Center are used to create predictions of the atmosphere's angular momentum at lead times of 1-10 days. The skill of these forecasts, which are of interest to those concerned with monitoring changes in the length-of-day for navigational purposes, is assessed, and the regions in the atmosphere that contribute most importantly to forecast errors are identified.

Rosen, R. D.↗
NASA NTRS1999

Clouds in ECMWF's 30 KM Resolution Global Atmospheric Forecast Model (TL639)

Global models of the general circulation of the atmosphere resolve a wide range of length scales, and in particular cloud structures extend from planetary scales to the smallest scales resolvable, now down to 30 km in state-of-the-art models. Even the highest resolution models do not resolve small-scale cloud phenomena seen, for example, in Landsat and other high-resolution satellite images of clouds. Unresolved small-scale disturbances often grow into larger ones through non-linear processes that transfer energy upscale. Understanding upscale cascades is of crucial importance in predicting current weather, and in parameterizing cloud-radiative processes that control long term climate. Several movie animations provide examples of the temporal and spatial variation of cloud fields produced in 4-day runs of the forecast model at the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) in Reading, England, at particular times and locations of simultaneous measurement field campaigns. model resolution is approximately 30 km horizontally (triangular truncation TL639) with 31 vertical levels from surface to stratosphere. Timestep of the model is about 10 minutes, but animation frames are 3 hours apart, at timesteps when the radiation is computed. The animations were prepared from an archive of several 4-day runs at the highest available model resolution, and archived at ECMWF. Cloud, wind and temperature fields in an approximately 1000 km X 1000 km box were retrieved from the archive, then approximately 60 Mb Vis5d files were prepared with the help of Graeme Kelly of ECMWF, and were compressed into MPEG files each less than 3 Mb. We discuss the interaction of clouds and radiation in the model, and compare the variability of cloud liquid as a function of scale to that seen in cloud observations made in intensive field campaigns. Comparison of high-resolution global runs to cloud-resolving models, and to lower resolution climate models is leading to better understanding of the upscale cascade and suggesting new cloud-radiation parameterizations for climate models.

Cahalan, R. F.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Medium-range numerical forecasts of atmospheric angular momentum

Forecasts of zonal wind fields produced by the medium-range forecast (MRF) model of the National Meteorological Center are used to create predictions of the atmosphere's angular momentum at lead times of 1-10 days. Based on momentum forecasts archived for the period December 1985-November 1986, it is found that, on average, the MRF exhibits positive skill relative to persistence-based forecasts at all lead times. Over the entire one-year study period, the improvement over persistence exceeds 20 percent for 2-6 day forecasts and remains as large as 10 percent even for 10-day forecasts. On the other hand, skill scores for the MRF momentum predictions vary considerably from month to month, and for a sizable fraction of the study period, the MRF is less skillful than persistence.

Rosen, Richard D.↗
NASA NTRS2008

Towards Improved Forecasts of Atmospheric and Oceanic Circulations over the Complex Terrain of the Eastern Mediterranean

Forecasting atmospheric and oceanic circulations accurately over the Eastern Mediterranean has proved to be an exceptional challenge. The existence of fine-scale topographic variability (land/sea coverage) and seasonal dynamics variations can create strong spatial gradients in temperature, wind and other state variables, which numerical models may have difficulty capturing. The Hellenic Center for Marine Research (HCMR) is one of the main operational centers for wave forecasting in the eastern Mediterranean. Currently, HCMR's operational numerical weather/ocean prediction model is based on the coupled Eta/Princeton Ocean Model (POM). Since 1999, HCMR has also operated the POSEIDON floating buoys as a means of state-of-the-art, real-time observations of several oceanic and surface atmospheric variables. This study attempts a first assessment at improving both atmospheric and oceanic prediction by initializing a regional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model with high-resolution sea surface temperatures (SST) from remotely sensed platforms in order to capture the small-scale characteristics.

Chronis, Themis↗
NASA NTRS1990

Microwave (SSM/I) Estimates of the Precipitation Rate to Improve Numerical Atmospheric Model Forecasts

Delay in the spin-up of precipitation early in numerical atmospheric forecasts is a deficiency correctable by diabatic initialization combined with diabatic forcing. For either to be effective requires some knowledge of the magnitude and vertical placement of the latent heating fields. Until recently the best source of cloud and rain water data was the remotely sensed vertical integrated precipitation rate or liquid water content. Vertical placement of the condensation remains unknown. Some information about the vertical distribution of the heating rates and precipitating liquid water and ice can be obtained from retrieval techniques that use a physical model of precipitating clouds to refine and improve the interpretation of the remotely sensed data. A description of this procedure and an examination of its 3-D liquid water products, along with improved modeling methods that enhance or speed-up storm development is discussed.

Raymond, William H.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Extended Range Forecasting

Atmospheric predictability is explored between a week and a month by means of the use of comprehensive atmospheric models. Emphasis will be on a priori estimations of forecast skill.

Kalnay, E.↗
NASA NTRS2009

Data Assimilation and Regional Forecasts using Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which, together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radionsondes. The purpose of this poster is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles, obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm, into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The poster focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses are used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-term impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against NAM analyses and stage IV precipitation data.

Zabodsky, Brad↗
NASA NTRS2009

Data Assimilation and Regional Forecasts Using Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profiles

In data sparse regions, remotely-sensed observations can be used to improve analyses, which in turn should lead to better forecasts. One such source comes from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS), which together with the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU), provides temperature and moisture profiles with an accuracy comparable to that of radiosondes. The purpose of this paper is to describe a procedure to optimally assimilate AIRS thermodynamic profiles--obtained from the version 5.0 Earth Observing System (EOS) science team retrieval algorithm-into a regional configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model using WRF-Var. The paper focuses on development of background error covariances for the regional domain and background field type, a methodology for ingesting AIRS profiles as separate over-land and over-water retrievals with different error characteristics, and utilization of level-by-level quality indicators to select only the highest quality data. The assessment of the impact of the AIRS profiles on WRF-Var analyses will focus on intelligent use of the quality indicators, optimized tuning of the WRF-Var, and comparison of analysis soundings to radiosondes. The analyses will be used to conduct a month-long series of regional forecasts over the continental U.S. The long-tern1 impact of AIRS profiles on forecast will be assessed against verifying radiosonde and stage IV precipitation data.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Atmospheric Composition Forecast Model Evaluation Using Ozone Measurements Collected by the Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar

The Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) is a mobile ground based lidar system based at NASA Langley in Hampton, Virginia. Between 2022 and 2024, LMOL collected over 2500 hours of ozone measurements for a range of different atmospheric conditions, including calm days, stratospheric intrusions, surface frontal passages, and long-range transported wildfire smoke plumes. Here, the data is used to evaluate the forecast accuracy of NASA’s Global GEOS Composition Forecasting (GEOS-CF) model. GEOS-CF makes daily three-dimensional forecasts of trace gases and aerosol species. Overall, for calm periods, the forecast model predicts lower tropospheric ozone at NASA Langley with reasonable accuracy (within 20%). The model best predicts the timing and extent of stratospheric intrusions but often vary in the magnitude of the ozone mixing ratio. Among the other types of atmospheric conditions, there is more variability in the model forecasts. Based on this analysis, model forecasts are utilized to determine future data acquisition opportunities with the goal of providing feedback to the modeling teams, thereby enabling them to better understand the model biases and improve the model forecasts of ozone during these different atmospheric conditions.

Daniel B Phoenix↗
NASA NTRS2013

Data Assimilation of AIRS Water Vapor Profiles: Impact on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western of the United States

Atmospheric rivers are transient, narrow regions in the atmosphere responsible for the transport of large amounts of water vapor. These phenomena can have a large impact on precipitation. In particular, they can be responsible for intense rain events on the western coast of North America during the winter season. This paper focuses on attempts to improve forecasts of heavy precipitation events in the Western US due to atmospheric rivers. Profiles of water vapor derived from from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) observations are combined with GFS forecasts by a three-dimensional variational data assimilation in the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI). Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) forecasts initialized from the combined field are compared to forecasts initialized from the GFS forecast only for 3 test cases in the winter of 2011. Results will be presented showing the impact of the AIRS profile data on water vapor and temperature fields, and on the resultant precipitation forecasts.

Blankenship, Clay↗
NASA NTRS2013

Impact of AIRS Thermodynamic Profiles on Precipitation Forecasts for Atmospheric River Cases Affecting the Western United States

This project is a collaborative activity between the NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center and the NOAA Hydrometeorology Testbed (HMT) to evaluate a SPoRT Advanced Infrared Sounding Radiometer (AIRS: Aumann et al. 2003) enhanced moisture analysis product. We test the impact of assimilating AIRS temperature and humidity profiles above clouds and in partly cloudy regions, using the three-dimensional variational Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) data assimilation (DA) system (Developmental Testbed Center 2012) to produce a new analysis. Forecasts of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model initialized from the new analysis are compared to control forecasts without the additional AIRS data. We focus on some cases where atmospheric rivers caused heavy precipitation on the US West Coast. We verify the forecasts by comparison with dropsondes and the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA) Blended Total Precipitable Water product.

Zavodsky, Bradley T.↗
NASA NTRS2010

P.88 Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) Profiles

Prudent assimulation of AIRS thermodynamic profiles and quality indicators can improve initial conditions for regional weather models. In general, AIRS-enhanced analysis more closely resembles radiosondes than the CNTL; forecasts with AIRS profiles are generally closer to NAM analyses than CNTL for sensible weather parameters (not shown here). Assimilation of AIRS leads to an overall QPF improvement in 6-h accumulated precipitation forecases. Including AIRS profiles in assimilation process enhances the low-level instability and produces stronger updrafts and a better precipitation forecast than the CNTL run.

Chou, Shih-Hung↗
NASA NTRS2010

Regional Precipitation Forecast with Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS) Profile Assimilation

Advanced technology in hyperspectral sensors such as the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder (AIRS; Aumann et al. 2003) on NASA's polar orbiting Aqua satellite retrieve higher vertical resolution thermodynamic profiles than their predecessors due to increased spectral resolution. Although these capabilities do not replace the robust vertical resolution provided by radiosondes, they can serve as a complement to radiosondes in both space and time. These retrieved soundings can have a significant impact on weather forecasts if properly assimilated into prediction models. Several recent studies have evaluated the performance of specific operational weather forecast models when AIRS data are included in the assimilation process. LeMarshall et al. (2006) concluded that AIRS radiances significantly improved 500 hPa anomaly correlations in medium-range forecasts of the Global Forecast System (GFS) model. McCarty et al. (2009) demonstrated similar forecast improvement in 0-48 hour forecasts in an offline version of the operational North American Mesoscale (NAM) model when AIRS radiances were assimilated at the regional scale. Reale et al. (2008) showed improvements to Northern Hemisphere 500 hPa height anomaly correlations in NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5) global system with the inclusion of partly cloudy AIRS temperature profiles. Singh et al. (2008) assimilated AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional modeling system for a study of a heavy rainfall event during the summer monsoon season in Mumbai, India. This paper describes an approach to assimilate AIRS temperature and moisture profiles into a regional configuration of the Advanced Research Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model using its three-dimensional variational (3DVAR) assimilation system (WRF-Var; Barker et al. 2004). Section 2 describes the AIRS instrument and how the quality indicators are used to intelligently select the highest-quality data for assimilation. Section 3 presents an overall precipitation improvement with AIRS assimilation during a 37-day case study period, and Section 4 focuses on a single case study to further investigate the meteorological impact of AIRS profiles on synoptic scale models. Finally, Section 5 provides a summary of the paper.

Chou, S.-H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

4-D techniques for evaluation of atmospheric model forecasts

A capability for four-dimensional display of meteorological data is being developed at the Space Science and Engineering Center of the University of Wisconsin. McIDAS is used for all aspects of the analysis, including acquiring data, running the model. storing the output, and displaying the results. A version of the Australian Regional Analysis and Forecast Models was applied to the eastern portion of the USA and adjacent Atlantic Ocean. The assimilation system is being used to analyze intensive observing periods during the GALE (Genesis of Atlantic Lows Experiment) field experiment.

Santek, David↗