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At least 19 records

Report on the Atmospheric Temperature Changes and their Drivers (ATC) Activity 2025 Spring Meeting

The Atmospheric Temperature Change and their Drivers (ATC) Activity brings together experts interested in improving understanding of atmospheric temperature variability and trends and their representation in climate data records. ATC pursues this goal by fostering intercomparisons of atmospheric temperature datasets, providing and improving uncertainty information for climate data records, comparing observations with model simulations, assessing atmospheric temperature trends and their drivers, and documenting their efforts in review papers and assessment reports. The ATC activity convened at the Wegener Center for Climate and Global Change at the University of Graz in Graz, Austria over April 23 – 25. The purpose of the meeting was to provide updates on research and datasets related to atmospheric temperature change and variability, to identify areas that need further research, and to coordinate ongoing and future collaborations. Meeting themes included theoretical and simulated controls on atmospheric temperature, the development of new and improved atmospheric temperature datasets, and analysis of atmospheric temperature variability and trends. 18 activity members attended the meeting including 12 in-person attendees and 6 remote attendees. Four new early career activity members attended with support from APARC.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Analytical Model for the Higher Order Moments of Midlatitude Atmospheric Temperature Distributions

Observed distributions of atmospheric temperature are non-Gaussian. Therefore, moments beyond variance are necessary in determining the frequency of extreme temperature events. Here we propose a simple kinematic model for atmospheric mid-latitude temperature variability based on symmetric advection from a non-symmetric background temperature profile. We then use this model to derive analytical expressions for the higher order moments of temperature distributions. Our results show that nonzero skewness and kurtosis arise due to the nonlinearity of the time-mean meridional temperature profile. The analytical model matches an idealized Held-Suarez atmospheric model, indicating nonlinearity of time-mean temperature in latitude is the dominant contribution to nonzero skewness and kurtosis in synoptic temperature variations. Model analysis further shows decrease in higher order moments due to climate change come roughly equally from changes in mixing length and changes in the background temperature profiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Reaction Pathways and Energy Consumption in NH 3 Decomposition for H 2 Production by Low Temperature, Atmospheric Pressure Plasma

Pathways for NH 3 decomposition to N 2 and N 2 H 4 by atmospheric pressure nonthermal plasma are analyzed using a combination of molecular beam mass spectrometry measurements and zero-dimensional kinetic modeling. Experimental measurements show that NH 3 conversion and selectivity towards N 2 formation scale monotonically with the specific energy input into the plasma with ~ 100% selectivity to N 2 formation achieved at specific energy inputs above 0.12 J cm −3 (3.1 eV (molecule NH 3 ) −1 ). The kinetic model recovers these trends, although it underpredicts N 2 selectivity at low specific energy input. These discrepancies can be explained by the underestimation of reaction rate coefficients for reactions that consume N 2 H x species in collisions with H radicals and/or radial nonuniformities in power deposition, gas temperature, and species concentrations that are not represented by the plug flow approximation used in the model. The kinetic model shows that N 2 formation proceeds through N 2 H x decomposition pathways rather than NH x decomposition pathways in low temperature, atmospheric pressure plasma. Higher selectivity toward N 2 production can be achieved by operating at higher NH 3 conversion and with a higher gas temperature. Furthermore, the high energy cost of NH 3 decomposition by atmospheric pressure nonthermal plasma found in this work (25–50 eV (molecule NH 3 converted) −1 ; 17–33 eV (molecule H 2 formed) −1 ) is a result of the energy requirement for electron-impact dissociation of NH 3 and the significant re-formation of NH 3 by three-body recombination reactions between NH 2 and H.

Nonthermal plasma↗

Species, Pathways, and Timescales for NH 3 Formation by Low-Temperature Atmospheric Pressure Plasma Catalysis

Species, pathways, and timescales for NH3 production by plasma catalysis over transition-metal wools are determined by measuring plasma-derived species densities [N, H, and N 2 (v)], quantitatively correlating consumption of these species with NH 3 formation, and measuring consumption of plasma-derived species at different residence times. These findings are enabled by a capillary flow through Ar/N 2 /H 2 plasma jet reactor setup that allows for the measurement of gas-phase species densities by molecular beam mass spectrometry. Surface-mediated reactions involving N radicals are responsible for NH 3 formation over Fe, Ni, and Ag surfaces. N reacts to form NH 3 with ~100% selectivity over Ni and Ag when H/N > 3 and % H 2 ≥ 0.5. The selectivity to ammonia drops as H and H 2 densities decrease for each catalyst. A comparison between amounts of NH 3 formed and N consumed with and without catalysts present shows that surface reactions enable higher and more selective conversion of N to NH 3 than gas-phase reactions alone. The conversion of N to NH 3 is negligible in the absence of H, demonstrating that H is required to produce NH 3 at these operating conditions. The consumption of N occurs on the same timescale as NH 3 formation, further confirming that reactions involving N contribute to NH 3 formation. Though vibrationally excited N 2 [N 2 (v)] is produced in quantities exceeding N by 100-fold, consumption of N 2 (v) on the catalytic surface does not contribute to NH 3 formation. Furthermore, these findings show that for low-temperature atmospheric pressure plasma catalysis, surface- mediated reactions among radical N and H species drive NH 3 formation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Atmospheric Temperature Inversions and He ι 5876 Core Profile Structure in White Dwarfs

Here we report distinctive core profiles in the strongest optical helium line, He ι λ5876, from high-resolution high-sensitivity observations of spectral type DB white dwarfs. By analyzing a sample of 40 stars from Keck/HIRES and VLT/UVES, we find the core appearance to be related to the degree of hydrogen and heavy element content in the atmosphere. New Ca K-line measurements or upper limits are reported for about half the sample stars. He ι λ5876 emission cores with a self-reversed central component are present for those stars with relatively low hydrogen abundance, as well as relatively low atmospheric heavy element pollution. This self-reversed structure disappears for stars with higher degrees of pollution and/or hydrogen abundance, giving way to a single absorption core. From our model atmospheres, we show that the self-reversed emission cores can be explained by temperature inversions in the upper atmosphere. We propose that the transition to a single absorption core is due to the additional opacity from hydrogen and heavy elements that inhibits the temperature inversions. Our current models do not exactly match the effective temperature range of the phenomenon or the amplitude of the self-reversed structure, which is possibly a result of missing physics such as 3D treatment, convective overshoot, and/or non-LTE effects. The He ι λ5876 line structure may prove to be a useful new diagnostic for calibrating temperature profiles in DB atmosphere models.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Atmospheric temperature, water vapour and liquid water path from two microwave radiometers during MOSAiC

The microwave radiometers HATPRO (Humidity and Temperature Profiler) and MiRAC-P (Microwave Radiometer for Arctic Clouds - Passive) continuously measured radiation emitted from the atmosphere throughout the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of the Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition on board the research vessel Polarstern. From the measured brightness temperatures, we have retrieved atmospheric variables using statistical methods in a temporal resolution of 1 s covering October 2019 to October 2020. The integrated water vapour (IWV) is derived individually from both radiometers. In addition, we present the liquid water path (LWP), temperature and absolute humidity profiles from HATPRO. To prove the quality and to estimate uncertainty, the data sets are compared to radiosonde measurements from Polarstern. The comparison shows an extremely good agreement for IWV, with standard deviations of 0.08–0.19 kg m -2 (0.39–1.47 kg m -2 ) in dry (moist) situations. The derived profiles of temperature and humidity denote uncertainties of 0.7–1.8 K and 0.6–0.45 gm -3 in 0–2 km altitude.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mars Upper Atmospheric Temperature and Atomic Oxygen Density Derived from the O i 130.4 nm Emission Observed by NASA’s MAVEN Mission

The abundance of atomic oxygen is a major unknown for the Mars upper atmosphere, and systematic measurements of this key species is a primary objective of NASA’s Mars Atmosphere and Volatile Evolution (MAVEN) mission. Moreover, the Martian dayside temperature structure and its variability has been a subject of considerable debate in the past. In this study, an inversion analysis of the periapsis limb scans of the O i 130.4 nm emission observed by MAVEN is performed to quantify the neutral temperature and atomic oxygen abundance in the Mars upper atmosphere. Our analysis yields unprecedented resolution of the spatial variation of Mars atomic oxygen, showing that its exobase density decreases with the solar zenith angle (SZA) from ∼0° to 60° by about an order of magnitude, from ∼10{sup 8} to ∼10{sup 7} cm{sup −3} near perihelion (2015 April) and from ∼10{sup 7} to ∼10{sup 6} cm{sup −3} near aphelion (2017 November). For a given SZA the exobase densities near perihelion are about an order of magnitude higher than those near aphelion. The [O]/[CO{sub 2}] mixing ratio at 130 km altitude can vary from ∼0.1% to 4.6%, which also decreases with increasing SZA. Moreover, it is shown that the Mars exobase temperature does not vary significantly with SZA from ∼0° to ∼60°, which is estimated to be ∼239.2 ± 27.6 K near perihelion and ∼162.4 ± 19.9 K near aphelion, with a difference of 76.8 K between these two seasonal extremes.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Exceptional stratospheric contribution to human fingerprints on atmospheric temperature

In 1967, scientists used a simple climate model to predict that human-caused increases in atmospheric CO 2 should warm Earth’s troposphere and cool the stratosphere. This important signature of anthropogenic climate change has been documented in weather balloon and satellite temperature measurements extending from near-surface to the lower stratosphere. Stratospheric cooling has also been confirmed in the mid to upper stratosphere, a layer extending from roughly 25 to 50 km above the Earth’s surface (S 25 − 50 ). To date, however, S 25 − 50 temperatures have not been used in pattern-based attribution studies of anthropogenic climate change. Here, we perform such a “fingerprint” study with satellite-derived patterns of temperature change that extend from the lower troposphere to the upper stratosphere. Including S 25 − 50 information increases signal-to-noise ratios by a factor of five, markedly enhancing fingerprint detectability. Key features of this global-scale human fingerprint include stratospheric cooling and tropospheric warming at all latitudes, with stratospheric cooling amplifying with height. In contrast, the dominant modes of internal variability in S 25 − 50 have smaller-scale temperature changes and lack uniform sign. These pronounced spatial differences between S 25 − 50 signal and noise patterns are accompanied by large cooling of S 25 − 50 (1 to 2 ° C over 1986 to 2022) and low S 25 − 50 noise levels. Our results explain why extending “vertical fingerprinting” to the mid to upper stratosphere yields incontrovertible evidence of human effects on the thermal structure of Earth’s atmosphere.

climate modeling↗

OH density, flux and loss probability measurements in a room temperature atmospheric pressure surface discharge by microscopic laser induced fluorescence

Many applications involving atmospheric pressure plasma-substrate interactions are enabled by the large fluxes of short-lived reactive species such as OH radicals to the substrate, nonetheless, the accurate measurement of radical densities and fluxes at substrates at atmospheric pressure has received little attention to date, particularly for surface ionization waves. We report the measurement of the OH density distribution in a surface discharge on a fused silica (quartz) substrate generated by an impinging atmospheric pressure plasma jet in dry and humid helium. The OH density is measured by microscopic laser induced fluorescence with a spatial resolution of 10 µm in the direction perpendicular to the quartz substrate. The measured OH diffusive flux varied for the investigated experimental conditions by almost three orders of magnitude and had a maximum value of 1.7 × 10 15 cm -2 s -1 . The corresponding surface loss probability of OH on the quartz surface was determined to be ~0.01. The high spatial resolution was required to accurately resolve the near surface gradient of OH radicals.

plasma-surface interactions↗

Seasonal Cycle of Idealized Polar Clouds: Large Eddy Simulations Driven by a GCM

The uncertainty in polar cloud feedbacks calls for process understanding of the cloud response to climate warming. As an initial step toward improved process understanding, we investigate the seasonal cycle of polar clouds in the current climate by adopting a novel modeling framework using large eddy simulations (LES), which explicitly resolve cloud dynamics. Resolved horizontal and vertical advection of heat and moisture from an idealized GCM are prescribed as forcing in the LES. The LES are also forced with prescribed sea ice thickness, but surface temperature, atmospheric temperature, and moisture evolve freely without nudging. A semigray radiative transfer scheme without water vapor and cloud feedbacks allows the GCM and LES to achieve closed energy budgets more easily than would be possible with more complex schemes. This enables the mean states in the two models to be consistently compared, without the added complications from interaction with more comprehensive radiation. Furthermore, we show that the LES closely follow the GCM seasonal cycle, and the seasonal cycle of low-level clouds in the LES resembles observations: maximum cloud liquid occurs in late summer and early autumn, and winter clouds are dominated by ice in the upper troposphere. Large-scale advection of moisture provides the main source of water vapor for the liquid-containing clouds in summer, while a temperature advection peak in winter makes the atmosphere relatively dry and reduces cloud condensate. The framework we develop and employ can be used broadly for studying cloud processes and the response of polar clouds to climate warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Science-integrated Artificial-intelligence for Flooding and precipitation Extremes (SAFE)

A grand challenge in hydrologic science is to understand why signals of climate change and variability, which are often visible in precipitation extremes at aggregate scales, are not consistently observed in the case of extreme flooding. However, a solution to this challenge may prove elusive unless the water cycle is viewed in an integrative manner. Thus, for riverine flooding, while Hortonian (infiltration excess) runoff may have stronger correlation with precipitation extremes and hence perhaps to warming trends or climate oscillators, Dunne (saturation excess) runoff may have a more complex relationships with time series of precipitation and with evaporation and transpiration, but rain-on-snow and snowmelt events may depend on land-surface and atmospheric temperatures. Atmospheric rivers and tropical cyclones lead to precipitation or flooding and are impacted by climate. Flooding assessments need to consider long-term baselines, evolving risk factors, coupled natural-human systems, and novel adaptation such as nature-inspired design.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Recent trends and variability of temperature and atmospheric water vapor over South Asia

This study examines the recent trends and variability of temperature and atmospheric water vapor over South Asia during the summer monsoon season from 1970 to 2022. We employ gridded reanalysis and observational datasets to assess the trends and variability in surface temperature and further investigate the associated physical processes. Our results show that the surface temperature over South Asia has increased by 0.5 °C per decade. Notably, we find a statistically significant major transition in the surface temperature series in 1995, such that 1970–1994 (1995–2022) is associated with anomalous cooling (anomalous warming). Since 1995, not only have the temporal variations in regional surface temperature, atmospheric water vapor, and clear-sky downward longwave radiation been synchronous at interannual scales, but their largest spatial variations have been located mainly over the same region. A diagnosis of the atmospheric moisture budget reveals that the observed changes in water vapor convergence over South Asia are dominated by changes in mean circulation dynamics, while the change in thermodynamics is relatively small. The enhancement of the Somali low-level jet may contribute to increased water vapor in South Asia by modulating low-level circulations.

Atmospheric circulations↗

Estimated Diffusion Out of a TRISO Particle Under Ambient Conditions

Many analyses performing diffusion calculations for tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel focus on either reactor conditions or accident scenarios, both instances of elevated temperatures. However, it is worthwhile to understand the diffusion of different elements out of a TRISO particle at ambient atmospheric temperatures, i.e. atmospheric temperatures that are common on the Earth’s surface. This report will outline the thermal analysis and diffusion calculations and then present the results of a generic TRISO particle.

Ivanusa, Pavlo↗

Strong Coulomb coupling influences ion and neutral temperatures in atmospheric pressure plasmas

Molecular dynamics simulations are used to model ion and neutral temperature evolution in partially-ionized atmospheric pressure plasma at different ionization fractions. Results show that ion–ion interactions are strongly coupled at ionization fractions as low as 10 –5 and that the temperature evolution is influenced by effects associated with the strong coupling. Specifically, disorder-induced heating is found to rapidly heat ions on a timescale of the ion plasma period (~10 s ps) after an ionization pulse. This is followed by the collisional relaxation of ions and neutrals, which cools ions and heats neutrals on a longer (~ns) timescale. Slight heating then occurs over a much longer (~100 s ns) timescale due to ion-neutral three-body recombination. An analytic model of the temperature evolution is developed that agrees with the simulation results. Finally, a conclusion is that strong coupling effects are important in atmospheric pressure plasmas.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Advancing Measurements and Understanding of the Rate and Structure of Atmospheric Warming

The rate and geographic pattern of atmospheric warming are key indicators of historical climate change and play a role in modulating future changes in Earth’s climate. The past and future evolution of atmospheric temperature is simulated using global climate models while observational estimates of past warming are derived from satellite microwave measurements. Individual climate models simulate widely varying rates of past and future atmospheric warming and most model simulations exhibit greater tropospheric (lowest ~10 km of atmosphere) temperature change than satellite observations between 1979 and 2020. This project examined intermodel differences in the pattern of atmospheric warming and how these differences influence climate feedbacks that can amplify or damp the rate of global surface warming. A key result is that climate model representation of the current climate can influence climate feedbacks and the simulation of future changes in climate. Another focus of this project was to analyze how models respond to different input datasets, such as volcanic aerosols or sea surface temperature (in atmosphere-only simulations). We find that different prescribed inputs can affect simulated changes in atmospheric temperature, even though “input uncertainty” is often unconsidered in model-observational comparisons. A final focus of this research project was to consider the influence of natural internal climate variability on satellite era changes in climate. Although the Earth is warming substantially due to anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, the observed warming rate can be modulated by natural variations in the Earth’s climate. We find that natural climate variability has slowed the rate of tropical tropospheric warming, which explains model-satellite differences in the rate of tropospheric warming.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Electrified vapour deposition at ultrahigh temperature and atmospheric pressure for nanomaterials synthesis

Vapour-phase synthesis methods have shown promise for the scalable synthesis of nanomaterials and coatings. However, the vaporization of different precursors for the synthesis of a broad nanomaterial space, particularly at atmospheric pressure, while maintaining compositional and structural control of the final product is challenging. Here we report the generation of an ultrahigh-temperature atomic vapour at atmospheric pressure based on electrified heating, for the growth of multi-elemental nanomaterials and thin films. This process relies on a reactor design whereby solid-state precursors are vaporized within a semi-confined space beneath an electrified heater that can reach ~3,000 K. The proximity of the heater rapidly breaks down the bonds of metal salt precursors and decomposes them into an atomic vapour that expands into a high-temperature (>2,000 K), highly reactive and high-flux vapour (10 21 –10 22 atoms per cm 2 per second) that travels upwards in a directional flow. When mixed with entrained ambient gases, the highly reactive atomic species rapidly nucleate and grow into the desired final products, including alloys, oxides, sulfides and thin films, which can be deposited on a low-temperature substrate. This EVD approach can synthesize a broad range of functional nanomaterials at atmospheric pressure, including single-phase multi-elemental nanomaterials formed under thermodynamically non-equilibrium conditions.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Particle charge distributions in the effluent of a flow-through atmospheric pressure low temperature plasma

Atmospheric pressure low-temperature plasmas are often utilized to perform particle synthesis, treatment, and removal. It is well-known that dust particles are highly negatively charged in these plasmas; however, little is known about dust particle charging behavior as particles leave the plasma volume and pass through the spatial afterglow region. In this work, monodisperse particles of various sizes and work functions were introduced into an atmospheric pressure radiofrequency capacitively coupled flow-through plasma. Dust particle electrical mobility distributions downstream of the flow-through plasma were measured utilizing a differential mobility analyzer in conjunction with a condensation particle counter at various gas flow velocities. Charge distributions were determined from the measured electrical mobility distributions. Experiments confirm that particles become less negatively charged, and even net-positively charged after leaving the plasma volume, with a distribution that follows a shifted Boltzmann charge distribution. Additionally, particle charge in the effluent of the flow-through plasma is negligibly dependent on work function but highly size and flow velocity dependent. Larger particles were shown to have a higher magnitude of charge under all studied conditions; however, particle polarity was switchable by varying gas flow velocity. The charging dynamics were simulated utilizing a constant number Monte Carlo model that accounts for electron temperature decay and the transition from ambipolar to free diffusion of electrons and ions in the spatial afterglow. Simulation results also suggest that, at the same flow velocity, larger particles obtain a greater magnitude of charge, negative or positive. Furthermore, the decrease in electron mobility and the difference between ion and electron convective loss rates create an ion-rich region in the plasma effluent that promotes ion–particle collisions and drives particle charge removal and even reversal of polarity. Larger particles more favorably collide with energetic species in these environments, which results in higher charge states.

atmospheric pressure low temperature plasma↗