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At least 19 records

Ideas and perspectives: Enhancing research and monitoring of carbon pools and land-to-atmosphere greenhouse gases exchange in developing countries

Carbon (C) and greenhouse gas (GHG) research has traditionally required data collection and analysis using advanced and often expensive instruments, complex and proprietary software, and highly specialized research technicians. Partly as a result, relatively little C and GHG research has been conducted in resource-constrained developing countries. At the same time, these are often the same countries and regions in which climate change impacts will likely be strongest and in which major science uncertainties are centered, given the importance of dryland and tropical systems to the global C cycle. Increasingly, scientific communities have adopted appropriate technology and approach (AT&A) for C and GHG research, which focuses on low-cost and low-technology instruments, open-source software and data, and participatory and networking-based research approaches. Adopting AT&A can mean acquiring data with fewer technical constraints and lower economic burden and is thus a strategy for enhancing C and GHG research in developing countries. However, AT&A can have higher uncertainties; these can often be mitigated by carefully designing experiments, providing clear protocols for data collection, and monitoring and validating the quality of obtained data. For implementing this approach in developing countries, it is first necessary to recognize the scientific and moral importance of AT&A. At the same time, new AT&A techniques should be identified and further developed. All these processes should be promoted in collaboration with local researchers and through training local staff and encouraged for wide use and further innovation in developing countries.

Kim, Dong-Gill↗

GES DISC Long-Term Data Analysis Services Using AIRS and CMS Methane Data as an Example

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple satellite missions and model results. Among those greenhouse gases, atmospheric methane is a powerful greenhouse gas contributing ~0.5 (W/m^2) to total radiative forcing, and its concentration has increased by about 150% since 1750. Observations or estimates of methane emissions typically have sparse spatial and temporal coverage. The lack of comprehensive spatial and temporal coverage of methane source and sink observations has made analyzing atmospheric methane trends challenging. In this study the GES DISC aims to provide the community with the resources to better understand changes in atmospheric methane concentrations and the underlying causes. We will utilize methane datasets from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) retrieved methane concentration and three Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) methane emission datasets (in regions of North America, Canada, and Mexico) to compare AIRS methane growth with corresponding CMS regional methane emissions. Comparisons of AIRS methane growth rates and CMS methane emissions suggests wetland emissions may impact methane growth rate trends over North America. As the record for CMS methane data is extended, both datasets can be used in conjunction to better understand impacts on atmospheric methane trends. GES DISCs new anomaly tool can also be used on select datasets to further quantify trends in atmospheric greenhouse gases.

long-term data analysis↗

The early faint sun paradox: organic shielding of ultraviolet-labile greenhouse gases

Atmospheric mixing ratios of approximately 10(-5 +/- 1) for ammonia on the early Earth would have been sufficient, through the resulting greenhouse warming, to counteract the temperature effects of the faint early sun. One argument against such model atmospheres has been the short time scale for ammonia photodissociation by solar ultraviolet light. Here it is shown that ultraviolet absorption by steady-state amounts of high-altitude organic solids produced from methane photolysis may have shielded ammonia sufficiently that ammonia resupply rates were able to maintain surface temperatures above freezing.

Non-NASA Center↗

Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in the Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA)

With their extensive coverage, marine low clouds greatly impact global climate. Presently, marine low clouds are poorly represented in global climate models, and the response of marine low clouds to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosols remains the major source of uncertainty in climate simulations. The Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) is a region of persistent but diverse subtropical marine boundary layer clouds, whose albedo and precipitation are highly susceptible to perturbations in aerosol properties. In addition, the ENA is periodically impacted by continental aerosols, making it an excellent location to study the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) budget in a remote marine region periodically perturbed by anthropogenic emissions, and to investigate the impacts of long-range transport of aerosols on remote marine clouds. The Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) campaign was motivated by the need of comprehensive in-situ measurements for improving the understanding of marine boundary layer CCN budget, cloud and drizzle microphysics, and the impact of aerosol on marine low cloud and precipitation. The airborne deployments took place from June 21 to July 20, 2017 and January 15 to February 18, 2018 in the Azores. The flights were designed to maximize the synergy between in-situ airborne measurements and ongoing long-term observations at a ground site. Here we present measurements, observation strategy, meteorological conditions during the campaign, and preliminary findings. Lastly, we discuss future analyses and modeling studies that improve the understanding and representation of marine boundary layer aerosols, clouds, precipitation, and the interactions among them.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate Change in New York State Updating the 2011 ClimAID Climate Risk Information Supplement to NYSERDA Report 11-18 (Responding to Climate Change in New York State)

In its 2013-2014 Fifth Assessment Report (AR5), the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) states that there is a greater than 95 percent chance that rising global average temperatures, observed since the mid-20th century, are primarily due to human activities. As had been predicted in the 1800s, the principal driver of climate change over the past century has been increasing levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases associated with fossil-fuel combustion, changing land-use practices, and other human activities. Atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide are now approximately 40 percent higher than in preindustrial times. Concentrations of other important greenhouse gases, including methane and nitrous oxide, have increased rapidly as well.

New York↗

GES DISC Greenhouse Gas Data Sets and Associated Services

NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) archives and distributes rich collections of data on atmospheric greenhouse gases from multiple missions. Hosted data include those from the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) mission (which has observed CO2, CH4, ozone, and water vapor since 2002); legacy water vapor and ozone retrievals from TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS); and Upper Atmosphere Research Satellite (UARS) going back to the early 1980s. GES DISC also archives and supports data from seven projects of the Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments (MEaSUREs) program that have ozone and water vapor records. Greenhouse gases data from the A-Train satellite constellation is also available: (1) Aura-Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) and Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) ozone, nitrous oxide, and water vapor since 2004; (2) Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) CO2 observations since 2009 from the Atmospheric CO2 Observations from Space (ACOS) task; and (3) Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) CO2 data since 2014. The most recent related data set that the GES DISC archives is methane flux for North America, as part of NASAs Carbon Monitoring System (CMS) project. This dataset contains estimates of methane emission in North America based on an inversion of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model constrained by GOSAT observations (Turner et al., 2015). Along with data stewardship, an important focus area of the GES DISC is to enhance the usability of its data and broaden its user base. Users have unrestricted access to a new user-friendly search interface, which includes many services such as variable subsetting, format conversion, quality screening, and quick browse. The majority of the GES DISC data sets are also accessible through Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol (OPeNDAP) and Web Coverage Service (WCS). The latter two services provide more options for specialized subsetting, format conversion, and image viewing. Additional data exploration, data preview, and preliminary analysis capabilities are available via NASA Giovanni, which obviates the need forusers to download the data (Acker and Leptoukh, 2007). Giovanni provides a bridge between the data and science and has been very successful in extending GES DISC data to educational users and to users with limited resources.

data ordering↗

Detectability of anthropogenic impacts on terrestrial carbon storage through space-based greenhouse gas observations

While changes in human activity and their impact on the terrestrial biosphere may be apparent in inventory and land-surface satellite data, reliably matching these changes to signals in atmospheric greenhouse gases remains challenging. The dominant signals in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are those of the seasonal and diurnal variability of the terrestrial biosphere. As a result, the historically large short-term change in anthropogenic fossil fuel emissions due to COVID-19 produced an atmospheric CO2 signal near the threshold of detectability of the current space-based observing system. Impacts of anthropogenic activity on terrestrial carbon storage are likewise expected to be difficult, if not impossible, to detect and validate with atmospheric observations. For example, many forest management projects involve reduction of wood removals that would otherwise be taken off site and decompose years later and are thus not reflected in immediate onsite carbon fluxes. Nevertheless, changes implemented over a jurisdictional scale, as opposed to individual projects, may be detectable. This presentation will analyze to what extent NASA’s Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS)/Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2) assimilated column CO2 (XCO2) product is able to detect anthropogenic changes to terrestrial carbon storage and the results of several simulation experiments meant to represent potential forest management scenarios. As examples, we consider past and future changes due to conversion in the Tropics to agricultural land use from slash-and-burn, e.g., from Reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries (REDD+) efforts. This has the potential to inform what practices may be observable with current and future technology, e.g., Europe’s upcoming CO2 monitoring mission (CO2M), and where improvement is needed.

Brad Weir↗

Dynamical Response of Mediterranean Precipitation to Greenhouse Gases and Aerosols

Atmospheric aerosols and greenhouse gases affect cloud properties, radiative balance and, thus, the hydrological cycle. Observations show that precipitation has decreased in the Mediterranean since the beginning of the 20th century, and many studies have investigated possible mechanisms. So far, however, the effects of aerosol forcing on Mediterranean precipitation remain largely unknown. Here we compare the modeled dynamical response of Mediterranean precipitation to individual forcing agents in a set of global climate models (GCMs). Our analyses show that both greenhouse gases and aerosols can cause drying in the Mediterranean and that precipitation is more sensitive to black carbon (BC) forcing than to well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) or sulfate aerosol. In addition to local heating, BC appears to reduce precipitation by causing an enhanced positive sea level pressure (SLP) pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation-Arctic Oscillation, characterized by higher SLP at midlatitudes and lower SLP at high latitudes. WMGHGs cause a similar SLP change, and both are associated with a northward diversion of the jet stream and storm tracks, reducing precipitation in the Mediterranean while increasing precipitation in northern Europe. Though the applied forcings were much larger, if forcings are scaled to those of the historical period of 1901-2010, roughly one-third (31+/-17%) of the precipitation decrease would be attributable to global BC forcing with the remainder largely attributable to WMGHGs, whereas global scattering sulfate aerosols would have negligible impacts. Aerosol-cloud interactions appear to have minimal impacts on Mediterranean precipitation in these models, at least in part because many simulations did not fully include such processes; these merit further study. The findings from this study suggest that future BC and WMGHG emissions may significantly affect regional water resources, agricultural practices, ecosystems and the economy in the Mediterranean region.

Tang, Tao↗

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Energy Budget of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual energy budget of the Arctic Ocean is characterized by a net heat loss at the air-sea interface that is balanced by oceanic heat transport into the Arctic. The energy loss at the air-sea interface is due to the combined effects of radiative, sensible, and latent heat fluxes. The inflow of heat by the ocean can be divided into two components: the transport of water masses of different temperatures between the Arctic and the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans and the export of sea ice, primarily through Fram Strait. Two 150-year simulations (1950-2099) of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. One is a control simulation for the present climate with constant 1950 atmospheric composition, and the other is a transient experiment with observed GHGs from 1950 to 1990 and 0.5% annual compounded increases of CO2 after 1990. For the present climate the model agrees well with observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere, atmospheric advective energy transport into the Arctic, and surface air temperature. It also simulates the seasonal cycle and summer increase of cloud cover and the seasonal cycle of sea-ice cover. In addition, the changes in high-latitude surface air temperature and sea-ice cover in the GHG experiment are consistent with observed changes during the last 40 and 20 years, respectively. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that even though the net annual incident solar radiation at the surface decreases by 4.6 W(per square meters) (because of greater cloud cover and increased cloud optical depth), the absorbed solar radiation increases by 2.8 W(per square meters) (because of less sea ice). Increased cloud cover and warmer air also cause increased downward thermal radiation at the surface so that the net radiation into the ocean increases by 5.0 Wm-2. The annual increase in radiation into the ocean, however, is compensated by larger increases in sensible and latent heat fluxes out of the ocean. Although the net energy loss from the ocean surface increases by 0.8 W (per square meters), this is less than the interannual variability, and the increase may not indicate a long-term trend. The seasonal cycle of heat fluxes is significantly enhanced. The downward surface heat flux increases in summer (maximum 2 of 19 W per square meters or 23% in June) while the upward heat flux increases in winter (maximum of 16 W per square meters or 28% in November). The increased downward flux in summer is due to a combination of increases in absorbed solar and thermal radiation and smaller losses of sensible and latent heat. The increased heat loss in winter is due to increased sensible and latent heat fluxes, which in turn are due to reduced sea-ice cover. On the other hand, the seasonal cycle of surface air temperature is damped, as there is a large increase in winter temperature but little change in summer.

Miller, James R.↗

Deciphering the Role of Desert Dust in the Climate Puzzle: The Mediterranean Israeli Dust Experiment (MEIDEX)

Numerous studies have shown that aerosol particles may be one of the primary agents that can offset the climate warming induced by the increase in the amount of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Desert aerosols are probably the most abundant and massive type of aerosol particles that are present in the atmosphere worldwide. These aerosols are carried over large distances and have various global impacts. They interact with clouds, impact the efficiency of their rain production and change their optical properties. They constitute one of the primary sources of minerals for oceanic life and influence the health of coral reefs. They have direct effects on human health, especially by inducing breathing difficulties in children. It was lately discovered that desert particles carry pathogens from the Sahara desert over the Atlantic Ocean, a fact that may explain the migration of certain types of diseases. Aerosols not only absorb solar radiation but also scatter it, so that their climatic effect is influenced not only by their physical properties and height distribution but also by the reflectivity of the underlying surface. This latter property changes greatly over land and is low over ocean surfaces. Aerosol plumes are emitted from discrete, sporadic sources in the desert areas of the world and are transported worldwide by the atmosphere's wind systems. For example, Saharan dust reaches Mexico City, Florida, Ireland, Switzerland and the Mediterranean region, while Asian dust reaches Alaska, Hawaii and the continental United States. This means that in order to assess its global effects, one must observe dust from space. The Space Shuttle is a unique platform, because it flies over the major deserts of our planet, enabling measurements and remote sensing of the aerosols as they travel from source to sink regions. Such efforts must always be accompanied by in-situ data for validation and calibration, with direct sampling of the airborne particles. MEIDEX is a joint project of the Israel Space Agency (ISA) and NASA, under a cooperation agreement between the two agencies.

Levin, Zev↗

Design, Fabrication, and testing of Direct Air Capture Sorbent modules to increase understanding of trade-offs in pressure drop and capture efficiency

Conference presentation for the work entitled “Design, Fabrication, and testing of Direct Air Capture Sorbent modules to increase understanding of trade-offs in pressure drop and capture efficiency”. In recent years, there has been a growing interest in Direct Air Capture (DAC) of CO2. This technology is gaining attention as a method to enhance the reduction of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs), particularly when used alongside other decarbonization strategies. The route for efficient and net carbon negative DAC is challenging because CO2 in the atmosphere is highly diluted (~400ppm). This work, utilizing 3D printing capabilities for rapid prototyping, presents application-based findings on the design, fabrication, and testing of DAC module form factors that house solid sorbents. The work leverages an experimental rig that can achieve air throughput and velocities approaching that which are anticipated for commercial scales. The tradeoffs of pressure drop, footprint and capture efficiency are discussed for different orientations of a NETL patented sorbent material.

Riley, Jarrett↗

Projected Impact of Climate Change on the Water and Salt Budgets of the Arctic Ocean by a Global Climate Model

The annual flux of freshwater into the Arctic Ocean by the atmosphere and rivers is balanced by the export of sea ice and oceanic freshwater. Two 150-year simulations of a global climate model are used to examine how this balance might change if atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase. Relative to the control, the last 50-year period of the GHG experiment indicates that the total inflow of water from the atmosphere and rivers increases by 10% primarily due to an increase in river discharge, the annual sea-ice export decreases by about half, the oceanic liquid water export increases, salinity decreases, sea-ice cover decreases, and the total mass and sea-surface height of the Arctic Ocean increase. The closed, compact, and multi-phased nature of the hydrologic cycle in the Arctic Ocean makes it an ideal test of water budgets that could be included in model intercomparisons.

Miller, James R.↗

Atmospheric methane consumption in arid ecosystems acts as a reverse chimney and is accelerated by plant-methanotroph biomes

Drylands cover one-third of the Earth’s surface and are one of the largest terrestrial sinks for methane. Understanding the structure–function interplay between members of arid biomes can provide critical insights into mechanisms of resilience toward anthropogenic and climate-change-driven environmental stressors—water scarcity, heatwaves, and increased atmospheric greenhouse gases. This study integrates in situ measurements with culture-independent and enrichment-based investigations of methane-consuming microbiomes inhabiting soil in the Anza-Borrego Desert, a model arid ecosystem in Southern California, United States. The atmospheric methane consumption ranged between 2.26 and 12.73 μmol m 2 h −1 , peaking during the daytime at vegetated sites. Metagenomic studies revealed similar soil-microbiome compositions at vegetated and unvegetated sites, with Methylocaldum being the major methanotrophic clade. Eighty-four metagenome-assembled genomes were recovered, six represented by methanotrophic bacteria (three Methylocaldum , two Methylobacter , and uncultivated Methylococcaceae ). The prevalence of copper-containing methane monooxygenases in metagenomic datasets suggests a diverse potential for methane oxidation in canonical methanotrophs and uncultivated Gammaproteobacteria. Five pure cultures of methanotrophic bacteria were obtained, including four Methylocaldum . Genomic analysis of Methylocaldum isolates and metagenome-assembled genomes revealed the presence of multiple stand-alone methane monooxygenase subunit C paralogs, which may have functions beyond methane oxidation. Furthermore, these methanotrophs have genetic signatures typically linked to symbiotic interactions with plants, including tryptophan synthesis and indole-3-acetic acid production. Based on in situ fluxes and soil microbiome compositions, we propose the existence of arid-soil reverse chimneys, an empowered methane sink represented by yet-to-be-defined cooperation between desert vegetation and methane-consuming microbiomes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The effects of advanced spectral line shapes on atmospheric carbon dioxide retrievals

Line shape effects such as speed-dependence and collisional (Dicke) narrowing are manifest in high signal-to-noise ratio laboratory spectra for a wide range of molecular species and sample conditions. However, these effects are usually neglected in spectroscopic models used in remote sensing of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, in this study, we examine the effects of line profile choice on laboratory spectra and XCO 2 values retrieved from Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) spectra. To this end, we utilize limiting cases of the Hartmann-Tran profile (HTP) with shape parameters recently measured by cavity ring-down spectroscopy. Significant differences highlighting the importance of including speed-dependence effects in forward models were observed both in scaling retrievals as well as profile retrievals. However, because of uncertainties associated with the atmospheric temperature gradient, it was not possible to extract accurate carbon column profiles even with inclusion of these new line shape parameters and advanced line profiles.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Microphysical-macrophysical interactions in low cloud systems over the Eastern North Atlantic

How low clouds over the oceans respond to changes in atmospheric greenhouse gases and aerosol particles is poorly understood. Climate model disagreement in these responses limits the accuracy of predictions of future climate. Processes governing the behavior of marine low cloud need to be improved in models and comprehensive long-term observations provide important constraints. Cloud structure and impacts on climate are shaped by processes operating on a wide range of time and space scales, which interact to modulate cloud dynamics, boundary layer structure, and precipitation. The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) site at Graciosa Island (Azores, 28°W 39°N) began taking measurements in late 2013 to address the need for comprehensive cloud, aerosol, and meteorological observations in a remote marine low cloud environment. The site straddles the boundary between the subtropical and midlatitude climate zones in the eastern North Atlantic and experiences a great diversity of meteorological and cloud conditions. In addition, the ENA site is downwind of the North American continent and is periodically impacted by continental aerosol particles transported there on the prevailing winds. In response to a 2014 proposal call, our team (ENA Site Science Team) laid out a strategy to accelerate research focused on understanding the multi-scale interactions that shape cloud properties by maximizing the utility of the observational capabilities of the ENA site. The proposed work aligned with the scientific directions of the ASR Working Groups. The team, together with collaborators, conducted a program of research focused upon multi-scale cloud processes. The team worked with scientists both within and outside the Atmospheric System Research (ASR) program, and with the ARM infrastructure to ensure that the full potential of the ENA site is realized. The suite of instruments at the ENA site has been increasing since the site’s inception and is now essentially complete. In 2019, we laid out a two-year extension of the research, and were granted an extension of the Site Science award.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗

New Record Ocean Temperatures and Related Climate Indicators in 2023

The global physical and biogeochemical environment has been substantially altered in response to increased atmospheric greenhouse gases from human activities. In 2023, the sea surface temperature (SST) and upper 2000 m ocean heat content (OHC) reached record highs. The 0–2000 m OHC in 2023 exceeded that of 2022 by 15 ± 10 ZJ (1 Zetta Joules = 10 21 Joules) (updated IAP/CAS data); 9 ± 5 ZJ (NCEI/NOAA data). The Tropical Atlantic Ocean, the Mediterranean Sea, and southern oceans recorded their highest OHC observed since the 1950s. Associated with the onset of a strong El Niño, the global SST reached its record high in 2023 with an annual mean of ~0.23°C higher than 2022 and an astounding > 0.3°C above 2022 values for the second half of 2023. The density stratification and spatial temperature inhomogeneity indexes reached their highest values in 2023.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Assessing the performance of solar radiation management geoengineering simulations

Offsetting the global warming caused by anthropogenic increases in atmospheric greenhouse gases by deliberate injection of aerosols into the stratosphere is the most studied of solar radiation management geoengineering schemes. The long-term success or failure of such schemes in achieving their stated goals is assessed by comparing simulated geoengineered temperature, precipitation and tropical cyclones metrics to equivalent fields in the simulated targeted climate simulations. Results using available data sets from three single model stabilized climate target experiments and three multimodel climate change reduction experiments are presented and compared against a measure of internal variability. While all but one experimental scheme is successful in achieving their targeted global mean annual surface temperature, their success at regional scales varies significantly and is often larger than the internal variability metric used here.

climate model evaluation↗