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At least 19 records

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system

Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Effects of atmospheric moisture on rock resistivity.

This study examines the changes in resistivity of rock samples as induced by atmospheric moisture. Experiments were performed on samples of hematitic sandstone, pyrite, and galena. The sandstone underwent a change in resistivity of four orders of magnitude when it was measured in a vacuum of 500 ntorr and in air of 37% relative humidity. Pyrite and galena showed no variations in resistivity when they were measured under the same conditions. These results, plus others obtained elsewhere, indicate that rocks of the resistive type are affected in their electrical properties by atmospheric moisture, whereas rocks of the conductive type are not. The experimental evidence obtained is difficult to reconcile with a model of aqueous electrolytic conduction on the sample surface. It is instead suggested that adsorbed water molecules alter the surface resistivity in a manner similar to that observed in semiconductors and insulators.

Alvarez, R.↗

Atmospheric moisture and cloud structure determined from SSM/I and global gridpoint analyses

Data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/I on the DMSP satellite are used to study atmospheric moisture and cloud structure. Column-integrated water vapor and total liquid water retrievals are obtained using an algorithm based on a radiative model for brightness temperature (Wentz, 1983). The results from analyzing microwave and IR measurements are combined with independent global gridpoint analyses to study the distribution and structure of atmospheric moisture over oceanic regions.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

Global atmospheric moisture variability

Research efforts during FY-88 have focused on completion of several projects relating to analysis of FGGE data during SOP-1 and on expanded studies of global atmospheric moisture. In particular, a revised paper on the relationship between diabatic heating and baroclinicity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was submitted. A summary of completed studies on diagnostic convective parameterization was presented at the Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography Convergence last February. These investigations of diabatic heating in the SPCZ have demonstrated the requirement for a more quantitative description of atmospheric moisture. As a result, efforts were directed toward use of passive remote microwave measurements from the Nimbus-7 SMMR and the DOD's Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI/I) as critical sources of moisture data. Activities this year are summarized.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Identification of Human-Induced Changes in Atmospheric Moisture Content

Data from the satellite-based Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) show that the total atmospheric moisture content over oceans has increased by 0.41 kg/sq m per decade since 1988. Results from current climate models indicate that water vapor increases of this magnitude cannot be explained by climate noise alone. In a formal detection and attribution analysis using the pooled results from 22 different climate models, the simulated "fingerprint" pattern of anthropogenically caused changes in water vapor is identifiable with high statistical confidence in the SSM/I data. Experiments in which forcing factors are varied individually suggest that this fingerprint "match" is primarily due to human-caused increases in greenhouse gases and not to solar forcing or recovery from the eruption of Mount Pinatubo. Our findings provide preliminary evidence of an emerging anthropogenic signal in the moisture content of earth's atmosphere.

Santer, B.D.↗

Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs

Soil moisture is coupled with vegetation and atmosphere, influencing global cycling of water, carbon, and energy. However, it remains unclear how soil moisture-atmosphere interactions affect land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges simultaneously. Using Earth system model experiments, we show widespread carbon-water trade-offs between net ecosystem production and precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration driven by soil moisture dynamics. Soil moisture positively controls net ecosystem production and negatively affects precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration, through direct soil water stress and indirect soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. While soil moisture variability magnifies the interannual variability of net ecosystem production, it moderates that of precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration over land. These opposing effects lead to a pronounced carbon-water trade-off, which originates from the interplay between carbon acquisition through photosynthesis and water extraction through evapotranspiration. This trade-off is projected to intensify in a warming and drying future, as soil moisture increasingly regulates carbon and water exchanges, posing a serious challenge to sustaining both terrestrial carbon sink and water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Method for Assessing the Quality of Model-Based Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture Using Satellite Data

A method is developed for validating model-based estimates of atmospheric moisture and ground temperature using satellite data. The approach relates errors in estimates of clear-sky longwave fluxes at the top of the Earth-atmosphere system to errors in geophysical parameters. The fluxes include clear-sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) and radiative flux in the window region between 8 and 12 microns (RadWn). The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data, and multiple global four-dimensional data assimilation (4-DDA) products. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic clear-sky longwave fluxes from two different 4-DDA data sets. Simple linear regression is used to relate the clear-sky longwave flux discrepancies to discrepancies in ground temperature ((delta)T(sub g)) and broad-layer integrated atmospheric precipitable water ((delta)pw). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters which can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of clear-sky longwave fluxes. For illustration we analyze the discrepancies in the clear-sky longwave fluxes between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS2) and a recent operational version of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts data assimilation system. The analysis of the synthetic clear-sky flux data shows that simple linear regression employing (delta)T(sub g)) and broad layer (delta)pw provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations, typically explaining more thin 90% of the 6 hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters, Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for (delta)T(sub g) to approx. 20% for the lower tropospheric moisture between 500 hPa and surface. The regression relationships developed from the synthetic flux data, together with CLR and RadWn observed with the Clouds and Earth Radiant Energy System instrument, ire used to assess the quality of the GEOS2 T(sub g) and pw. Results showed that the GEOS2 T(sub g) is too cold over land, and pw in upper layers is too high over the tropical oceans and too low in the lower atmosphere.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Statistical Relations among Solid Precipitation, Atmospheric Moisture and Cloud Parameters in the Arctic

Observations collected during cold-season precipitation periods at Utquagvik, Alaska and at the multidisciplinary drifting observatory for the study of Arctic climate (MOSAiC) are used to statistically analyze the relations among the atmospheric water cycle parameters including the columnar supercooled liquid and ice amounts (expressed as liquid-water and ice-water paths, i.e., LWP and IWP), the integrated water vapor (IWV) and the near-surface snowfall rate. Data come from radar and radiometer-based retrievals and from optical precipitation sensors. While the correlation between snowfall rate and LWP is rather weak, correlation coefficients between radar-derived snowfall rate and IWP are high (~0.8), which is explained, in part, by the generally low LWP/IWP ratios during significant precipitation. Correlation coefficients between snowfall rate and IWV are moderate (~0.45). Correlations are generally weaker if snowfall is estimated by optical sensors, which is, in part, due to blowing snow. Correlation coefficients between near-surface temperature and snowfall rates are low (r < 0.3). The results from the Alaska and MOSAiC sites are generally similar. These results are not very sensitive to the amount of time averaging (e.g., 15 min averaging versus daily averages). Observationally based relations among the water cycle parameters are informative about atmospheric moisture conversion processes and can be used for model evaluations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (Tg) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing long-wave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub h)) over wet regions and Tg over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200 /cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub j)) and Tg. Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub t) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in Tg, q(sub h) and q(sub t). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing (Delta)Tg and broad layer (Delta)q(sub l) from 500 hPa to surface and (Delta)q(sub h) from 200 to 500 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations, typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for (Delta)T to about 20% for (Delta)q(sub t). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 mm). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the Tg, have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSTM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

Soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks mitigate declining water availability in drylands

Global warming alters surface water availability (precipitation minus evapotranspiration, P–E) and hence freshwater resources. However, the influence of land–atmosphere feedbacks on future P–E changes and the underlying mechanisms remain unclear. Here we demonstrate that soil moisture (SM) strongly impacts future P–E changes, especially in drylands, by regulating evapotranspiration and atmospheric moisture inflow. Using modelling and empirical approaches, we find a consistent negative SM feedback on P–E, which may offset ~60% of the decline in dryland P–E otherwise expected in the absence of SM feedbacks. The negative feedback is not caused by atmospheric thermodynamic responses to declining SM; rather, reduced SM, in addition to limiting evapotranspiration, regulates atmospheric circulation and vertical ascent to enhance moisture transport into drylands. This SM effect is a large source of uncertainty in projected dryland P–E changes, underscoring the need to better constrain future SM changes and improve the representation of SM–atmosphere processes in models.

precipitation↗

Estimates of Ground Temperature and Atmospheric Moisture from CERES Observations

A method is developed to retrieve surface ground temperature (T(sub g)) and atmospheric moisture using clear sky fluxes (CSF) from CERES-TRMM observations. In general, the clear sky outgoing longwave radiation (CLR) is sensitive to upper level moisture (q(sub l)) over wet regions and (T(sub g)) over dry regions The clear sky window flux from 800 to 1200/cm (RadWn) is sensitive to low level moisture (q(sub t)) and T(sub g). Combining these two measurements (CLR and RadWn), Tg and q(sub h) can be estimated over land, while q(sub h) and q(sub l) can be estimated over the oceans. The approach capitalizes on the availability of satellite estimates of CLR and RadWn and other auxiliary satellite data. The basic methodology employs off-line forward radiative transfer calculations to generate synthetic CSF data from two different global 4-dimensional data assimilation products. Simple linear regression is used to relate discrepancies in CSF to discrepancies in T(sub g), q(sub h) and q(sub l). The slopes of the regression lines define sensitivity parameters that can be exploited to help interpret mismatches between satellite observations and model-based estimates of CSF. For illustration, we analyze the discrepancies in the CSF between an early implementation of the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS-DAS) and a recent operational version of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Prediction data assimilation system. In particular, our analysis of synthetic total and window region SCF differences (computed from two different assimilated data sets) shows that simple linear regression employing Delta(T(sub g)) and broad layer Delta(q(sub l) from .500 hPa to surface and Delta(q(sub h)) from 200 to .300 hPa provides a good approximation to the full radiative transfer calculations. typically explaining more than 90% of the 6-hourly variance in the flux differences. These simple regression relations can be inverted to "retrieve" the errors in the geophysical parameters. Uncertainties (normalized by standard deviation) in the monthly mean retrieved parameters range from 7% for Delta(T(sub g)) to about 20% for Delta(q(sub l)). Our initial application of the methodology employed an early CERES-TRMM data set (CLR and Radwn) to assess the quality of the GEOS2 data. The results showed that over the tropical and subtropical oceans GEOS2 is, in general, too wet in the upper troposphere (mean bias of 0.99 mm) and too dry in the lower troposphere (mean bias of -4.7 min). We note that these errors, as well as a cold bias in the T(sub g). have largely been corrected in the current version of GEOS-2 with the introduction of a land surface model, a moist turbulence scheme and the assimilation of SSM/I total precipitable water.

Wu, Man Li C.↗

High resolution depiction of atmospheric moisture, stability and surface temperature from combined MAMS and VAS radiances

In order to elucidate mesoscale variability of the earth-atmosphere system, aircraft-borne Multi-spectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS), 100-meter-resolution radiometric data, and geostationary-borne VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) 8-km-resolution radiometric data are used together in a physical retrieval method to produce 100-m-resolution depictions of atmospheric moisture, stability, and skin temperature. The VAS, with its IR-sounding capability, provides the vertical information to the retrieval while the MAMS, with its 100-m resolution, provides the horizontal information. The retrievals show mesoscale features, including a moist tongue intrusion and an urban heat island. Mesogamma-scale gradients are found to exceed mesobeta-scale gradients, and significant mesogamma-scale variability is not captured in current geostationary sounding data. It is suggested that improvements to the spatial resolution of operating sounding data will yield improved information on atmospheric and surface gradients, especially at the mesogamma scale.

Moeller, C. C.↗

Estimation of atmospheric moisture content from microwave radiometric measurements during CCOPE

A multiple linear regression technique has been applied to retrieve continuous sequences of atmospheric moisture profiles from a set of measured data. In this method the selection of an optimal subset of sensor channels plays a crucial role, in order to reduce the impact of data noise and redundancy. The data were obtained with a 4-channel remote-sensing microwave instrument carried aboard an aircraft. In contrast, most previously reported moisture profile retrievals from microwave radiometry have been used on simulated, discontinuous data. Although the data were obtained over a land surface with only a limited amount of correlative data, the retrievals were quite successful.

Lambrigtsen, B. H.↗

Contrasting Effects of Urban Land Cover Change and Anthropogenic Heat on Summer Precipitation Over the Yangtze River Delta of China: Analyses From an Atmospheric Moisture Budget Perspective

Both urban land cover (ULC) change and anthropogenic heat (AH) emission are important causes of urban heat island, but their relative contributions to the changes in urban precipitation and the related mechanism remain unclear. Based on numerical simulations utilizing the latest realistic urban fraction and AH data over the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration, we found that ULC and AH resulted in nearly opposite effects on precipitation. Various dynamical and thermodynamic processes were involved according to the atmospheric moisture budget analyses. AH increased precipitation particularly during afternoon, and the increases were stronger during heavy precipitation events because of the enhanced moisture convergence effect together with the release of moisture storage previously accumulated in the atmosphere. Differently, ULC reduced mean precipitation mainly due to suppressed evaporation. During weak precipitation events, the suppressed evaporation was largely balanced by the intensified moisture convergence, but during heavy events, ULC caused more pronounced precipitation reduction because the moisture convergence response disappeared and failed to offset the evaporation effect. Here, the relative contributions of different dynamical and thermodynamic processes such as those related to circulation, moisture gradient, and background moisture availability to the temporal variation in the total moisture convergence were further quantified. Overall, our results help better understand the relative roles of different aspects of urbanization on precipitation, and suggest that compared to ULC, reduction in AH emission that is tightly related to the energy consumption structure could be more efficient for mitigating the risk of extreme precipitation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Constraining Middle Atmospheric Moisture in GEOS-5 Using EOS-MLS Observations

Middle atmospheric water vapor plays an important role in climate and atmospheric chemistry. In the middle atmosphere, water vapor, after ozone and carbon dioxide, is an important radiatively active gas that impacts climate forcing and the energy balance. It is also the source of the hydroxyl radical (OH) whose abundances affect ozone and other constituents. The abundance of water vapor in the middle atmosphere is determined by upward transport of dehydrated air through the tropical tropopause layer, by the middle atmospheric circulation, production by the photolysis of methane (CH4), and other physical and chemical processes in the stratosphere and mesosphere. The Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) reanalysis with GEOS-5 did not assimilate any moisture observations in the middle atmosphere. The plan is to use such observations, available sporadically from research satellites, in future GEOS-5 reanalyses. An overview will be provided of the progress to date with assimilating the EOS-Aura Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) moisture retrievals, alongside ozone and temperature, into GEOS-5. Initial results demonstrate that the MLS observations can significantly improve the middle atmospheric moisture field in GEOS-5, although this result depends on introducing a physically meaningful representation of background error covariances for middle atmospheric moisture into the system. High-resolution features in the new moisture field will be examined, and their relationships with ozone, in a two-year assimilation experiment with GEOS-5. Discussion will focus on how Aura MLS moisture observations benefit the analyses.

Jin, Jianjun↗

Determination of atmospheric moisture structure and infrared cooling rates from high resolution MAMS radiance data

This program has applied Multispectral Atmospheric Mapping Sensor (MAMS) high resolution data to the problem of monitoring atmospheric quantities of moisture and radiative flux at small spatial scales. MAMS, with 100-m horizontal resolution in its four infrared channels, was developed to study small scale atmospheric moisture and surface thermal variability, especially as related to the development of clouds, precipitation, and severe storms. High-resolution Interferometer Sounder (HIS) data has been used to develop a high spectral resolution retrieval algorithm for producing vertical profiles of atmospheric temperature and moisture. The results of this program are summarized and a list of publications resulting from this contract is presented. Selected publications are attached as an appendix.

Menzel, W. Paul↗

Soil Moisture–Atmosphere Feedbacks Dominate Land Carbon Uptake Variability

Year-to-year changes in carbon uptake by terrestrial ecosystems play an essential role in determining atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations. It remains uncertain to what extent temperature and water availability can explain these variations at the global scale. Here we use factorial climate model simulations and show that variability in soil moisture drives 90% of the inter-annual variability in global land carbon uptake, mainly through its impact on photosynthesis. We find that most of this ecosystem response occurs indirectly as soil moisture–atmosphere feedbacks amplify temperature and humidity anomalies, and enhance the direct effects of soil water stress. The strength of this feedback mechanism explains why coupled climate models indicate a dominant role of soil moisture which is not readily apparent in land surface model simulations and observational analyses. These findings highlight the need to account for feedbacks between soil and atmospheric dryness when estimating the carbon cycle’s response to climatic change globally, as well as when conducting field-scale investigations of the ecosystem response to droughts. Our results show that most of the global variability in modelled land carbon uptake is driven by temperature and vapour pressure deficit effects which are controlled by soil moisture.

Atmospheric dynamics↗