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At least 19 records

Rising atmospheric moisture escalates the future impact of atmospheric rivers in the Antarctic climate system

Abstract Despite their relative rarity, atmospheric rivers are key contributors to the surface mass balance of Antarctica. However, the future role of atmospheric rivers in modulating Antarctic sea-level contributions is a major area of uncertainty. Here, we leverage high-resolution climate simulations to show that Antarctic atmospheric rivers are highly sensitive to future increases in atmospheric moisture, leading to a doubling of atmospheric river frequencies and 2.5 × increase in precipitation from 2066–2100 under present-day thresholds for atmospheric river detection. However, future precipitation impacts are critically dependent on the detection threshold: accounting for moisture increases in the threshold produces smaller, regional changes in atmospheric river frequency, primarily resulting from an eastward shift in the polar jet maximum wind speeds. Our results underscore the importance of using large ensembles to quantify Antarctic atmospheric river responses to variability in projected moisture, which may not be captured when using only a few ensemble members.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology

Effects of atmospheric moisture on rock resistivity.

This study examines the changes in resistivity of rock samples as induced by atmospheric moisture. Experiments were performed on samples of hematitic sandstone, pyrite, and galena. The sandstone underwent a change in resistivity of four orders of magnitude when it was measured in a vacuum of 500 ntorr and in air of 37% relative humidity. Pyrite and galena showed no variations in resistivity when they were measured under the same conditions. These results, plus others obtained elsewhere, indicate that rocks of the resistive type are affected in their electrical properties by atmospheric moisture, whereas rocks of the conductive type are not. The experimental evidence obtained is difficult to reconcile with a model of aqueous electrolytic conduction on the sample surface. It is instead suggested that adsorbed water molecules alter the surface resistivity in a manner similar to that observed in semiconductors and insulators.

Alvarez, R.

Atmospheric moisture and cloud structure determined from SSM/I and global gridpoint analyses

Data from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/I on the DMSP satellite are used to study atmospheric moisture and cloud structure. Column-integrated water vapor and total liquid water retrievals are obtained using an algorithm based on a radiative model for brightness temperature (Wentz, 1983). The results from analyzing microwave and IR measurements are combined with independent global gridpoint analyses to study the distribution and structure of atmospheric moisture over oceanic regions.

Robertson, Franklin R.

Global atmospheric moisture variability

Research efforts during FY-88 have focused on completion of several projects relating to analysis of FGGE data during SOP-1 and on expanded studies of global atmospheric moisture. In particular, a revised paper on the relationship between diabatic heating and baroclinicity in the South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) was submitted. A summary of completed studies on diagnostic convective parameterization was presented at the Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography Convergence last February. These investigations of diabatic heating in the SPCZ have demonstrated the requirement for a more quantitative description of atmospheric moisture. As a result, efforts were directed toward use of passive remote microwave measurements from the Nimbus-7 SMMR and the DOD's Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSMI/I) as critical sources of moisture data. Activities this year are summarized.

Robertson, Franklin R.

Soil moisture-atmosphere interactions drive terrestrial carbon-water trade-offs

Soil moisture is coupled with vegetation and atmosphere, influencing global cycling of water, carbon, and energy. However, it remains unclear how soil moisture-atmosphere interactions affect land-atmosphere carbon and water exchanges simultaneously. Using Earth system model experiments, we show widespread carbon-water trade-offs between net ecosystem production and precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration driven by soil moisture dynamics. Soil moisture positively controls net ecosystem production and negatively affects precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration, through direct soil water stress and indirect soil moisture-atmosphere feedbacks. While soil moisture variability magnifies the interannual variability of net ecosystem production, it moderates that of precipitation-minus-evapotranspiration over land. These opposing effects lead to a pronounced carbon-water trade-off, which originates from the interplay between carbon acquisition through photosynthesis and water extraction through evapotranspiration. This trade-off is projected to intensify in a warming and drying future, as soil moisture increasingly regulates carbon and water exchanges, posing a serious challenge to sustaining both terrestrial carbon sink and water supply.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Estimation of atmospheric moisture content from microwave radiometric measurements during CCOPE

A multiple linear regression technique has been applied to retrieve continuous sequences of atmospheric moisture profiles from a set of measured data. In this method the selection of an optimal subset of sensor channels plays a crucial role, in order to reduce the impact of data noise and redundancy. The data were obtained with a 4-channel remote-sensing microwave instrument carried aboard an aircraft. In contrast, most previously reported moisture profile retrievals from microwave radiometry have been used on simulated, discontinuous data. Although the data were obtained over a land surface with only a limited amount of correlative data, the retrievals were quite successful.

Lambrigtsen, B. H.

Assessing the capability of EOS sensors in measuring ocean-atmosphere moisture exchange

As part of the Science Synergism Studies to identify interdisciplinary Scientific studies, which could be addressed by the Environmental Observing System (EOS), the techniques being developed to measure ocean-atmosphere moisture exchanges using satellite sensors were evaluated. Studies required to use sensors proposed for EOS were examined. A method has been developed to compute the moisture flux using the wind speed, sea surface temperature, and preciptable water measured by satellite sensors. It relies on a statistical model which predicts surface-level humidity from precipitable water. The Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer (SMMR) measures all 3 parameters and was found to be sensitive to the annual cycle and large interannual variations such as the 1982 to 1983 El Nino. There are systematic differences between geophysical parameters measured by Nimbus/SMMR and in situ measurements. After quadratic trends and crosstalks were removed from the parameters through multivariate regressions, the latent heat fluxes computed from SMMR agree with those computed from ship reports to within 30 W/sq m. The poor quality of ship reports may be the cause of a portion of this scatter. Similar results are found using SEASAT/SMMR data. When the scatterometer winds were used instead of the SMMR winds, the difference between the satellite fluxes and the ship fluxes was reduced.

Liu, W. T.

Observation of lower-atmospheric moisture structure and its evolution using a Raman lidar

Observations of the water-vapor mixing ratio in the lower atmosphere and its temporal evolution have been made with a Raman lidar. Comparison with an independent radiosonde measurement indicated excellent agreement. The moisture structure, observed up to an altitude of 5 km and over an 80-min period during the early morning of April 30, 1985 (the present lidar is limited to night operation), showed temporal variations of several atmospheric features which could not be resolved by balloon soundings. Application of the lidar should provide the opportunity to study details of atmospheric moisture, its structure, and its evolution in a manner never before realized.

Melfi, S. H.

A statistical correlation method for the retrieval of atmospheric moisture profiles by microwave radiometry

A statistical correlation technique is applied to the retrieval of vertical moisture profiles under clear-sky conditions from down-looking radiometric measurements of atmospheric radiation at microwave wavelengths. For a given set of channels, the method selects the optimum radiometric channels for estimating water vapor at specific pressure levels between the surface and 300 mb. The water vapor mixing ratio at these pressure levels is then calculated from a linear combination of the selected channel brightness temperatures. To test its validity the algorithm was applied, in a numerical experiment, to fifty independent tropical radiosondes. The rms absolute deviation of the estimated moisture profiles from the actual profiles was comparable to that obtained using an iterative retrieval method reported earlier. The statistical method, however, requires several orders of magnitude less computer time than the iterative method; it is suitable for high speed processing of large amounts of data.

Kakar, R. K.

On the relationship between scatterometer-derived convergences and atmospheric moisture

Fields of divergence calculated from the Seasat-A Satellite Scatterometer winds and fields of integrated water vapor and rainrate from the Scanning Multichannel Microwave Radiometer on Seasat are constructed for three different midlatitude cyclones. These storms include an explosively deepening cyclone that occurred in the North Atlantic (also known as the Queen Elizabeth II cyclone), a storm that occurred in the North Pacific, and a Southern Ocean storm. In all three cases, the regions of convergence and atmospheric water (vapor and rain) are consistent with each other and help to define features of each storm. The vertical distribution of moisture is inferred for one case using both the convergence pattern and the integrated water vapor field. In another, interpretation of the convergence field in a data gap region is aided by the water vapor field. In all three cases, surface low pressure centers, fronts, and even frontal waves are clearly evident as areas of convergence, and increased water vapor and rainrate.

Mcmurdie, Lynn A.

Quantifying Moisture Sources of Arctic Atmospheric Rivers During the Recent Historical Period

Atmospheric rivers (ARs), filaments of intense atmospheric moisture transport, play a significant role in delivering moisture poleward into the Arctic and triggering weather extremes. Although previous studies have focused on large‐scale circulations driving these events, this study investigates ARs through attributing their moisture sources using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5 (CAM5) with moisture‐tagging capability. Examining ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors of the Arctic separately revealed distinct contributions from remote versus local, and ocean versus land, moisture sources. Unlike non‐AR events, Arctic ARs primarily draw moisture from their respective ocean basins in lower‐latitude regions during the cold season, and shift to land sources in the warm season. Cold‐season ARs in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors source 73.2% and 85.3% of their moisture from their respective ocean basins at lower latitudes, however warm‐season contributions decrease to 41.3% and 29.4%. In contrast, mid‐ and high‐latitude continents combined contribute 40.1% and 51.3% in the warm season. Trajectory clustering analysis shows that AR moisture sources depend on both their genesis regions and transport pathways. In recent decades, the Arctic has experienced a moistening trend in both the cold and warm seasons. Our results suggest that local and remote sources equally drive the observed cold‐season moistening, whereas remote sources predominantly drive the warm‐season moistening. A better understanding of Arctic AR moisture sources under current climate conditions provides valuable insights into their potential future changes amid the projected heterogeneous northern hemispheric warming.

Arctic

Electrical properties of dry rocks

The mechanism by which atmospheric moisture affects the conductivity and dielectric constant of rock specimens was studied in time and frequency domains. It is suggested that adsorbed water molecules alter the surface conductivity in a manner similar to that observed in semiconductors and insulators. Powdered basalts show a low-frequency dispersion produced by the atmospheric moisture remaining in the pore system of the sample in a high vacuum; this effect is attributed to isolated adsorption centers. Simulated lunar permafrost at 100 K and a vacuum of 10 to the -8th power torr together with data on lunar samples contaminated with atmospheric moisture and the dielectric properties of ice at various temperatures indicate that, if permafrost exists in the moon it should present a relaxation peak at approximately 300 Hz; for temperatures up to 263 K it may go up to 20 KHz. It is concluded that in order to have electrical steady state conditions in rock samples it is necessary to have volume charge accumulations at interfaces within the sample and at the electrode sample interface. A method for measuring heterogeneous dielectrics with non-negligible ohmic and dielectric conductivities is proposed and experimentally verified.

Morrison, H.

One-dimensional simulation of temperature and moisture in atmospheric and soil boundary layers

Meteorologists are interested in modeling the vertical flow of heat and moisture through the soil in order to better simulate the vertical and temporal variations of the atmospheric boundary layer. The one dimensional planetary boundary layer model of is modified by the addition of transport equations to be solved by a finite difference technique to predict soil moisture.

Bornstein, R. D.

Distinct drivers of recent seasonal precipitation increase over Central Asia: roles of anthropogenic aerosols and greenhouse gases

Observational evidence reveals a pronounced wetting trend over Central Asia in recent decades, with the most substantial increases occurring during winter and summer. Yet the extent to which the drivers of these changes differ seasonally remains unknown. Here, we use single-forcing experiments from the Precipitation Driver and Response Model Intercomparison Project (PDRMIP) to examine the effects of various external forcings on winter and summer precipitation across Central Asia and to explore the physical mechanisms underlying seasonal precipitation changes. We find that greenhouse gas (GHG) forcing mainly increases winter precipitation by enhancing atmospheric moisture content through warming. In contrast, in summer, Asian sulfate aerosols enhance precipitation by modulating the westerly jet, which strengthens atmospheric moisture transport into the region. Asian black carbon exerts an opposing influence that partially offsets the sulfate-induced effect. Further attribution analysis based on CMIP6 simulations reinforces these sensitivity results and shows that GHG forcing is the primary driver of winter precipitation increases whereas anthropogenic aerosols dominate summer trends. Future CMIP6 projections suggest that under moderate- to high-emission scenarios, winter precipitation will continue to rise due to increasing GHG concentrations, while summer precipitation may decline across much of Central Asia as a result of reduced aerosol emissions following Asian clean air policies. These findings highlight a distinct seasonality in the drivers of recent precipitation increase and suggest a plausible divergence in future winter and summer precipitation trends.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Studies of vorticity imbalance and stability, moisture budget, atmospheric energetics, and gradients of meteorological parameters during AVE 3

Four diagnostic studies of AVE 3. are presented. AVE 3 represents a high wind speed wintertime situation, while most AVE's analyzed previously represented springtime conditions with rather low wind speeds. The general areas of analysis include the examination of budgets of vorticity, moisture, kinetic energy, and potential energy and a synoptic and statistical study of the horizontal gradients of meteorological parameters. Conclusions are integrated with and compared to those obtained in previously analyzed experiments (mostly springtime weather situations) so as to establish a more definitive understanding of the structure and dynamics of the atmosphere under a wide range of synoptic conditions.

Scoggins, J. R.

Observed Land Surface Influence on Atmospheric Heat and Moisture Profiles During Interstorms

Land-atmospheric (L-A) feedbacks have historically been studied using models whose structure and parameterizations influence outcomes and insights. The representation of L-A feedbacks based on observations alone remains an ongoing challenge for understanding boundary layer development and precipitation. To address this gap, we use ground-based passive remote sensing and in-situ observations to present an analysis of the atmosphere during 103 interstorm soil moisture drydown events spanning nine warm seasons (2016–2024) in the U.S. Southern Great Plains region. By separating events based on local L-A coupling signals and characterizing the profiles of atmospheric heat and moisture to surface energy flux behavior, we investigate the physical mechanisms linking land surface processes to boundary layer development. We find that during interstorm drydowns, the atmospheric column follows a consistent pattern: moisture increases within the boundary layer, peaks near its top, and declines rapidly above, while warming occurs through the depth. Drydowns that shift toward evaporation produce stronger and deeper thermodynamic responses than cases dominated by sensible heating, which are weaker and shallower. Additionally, moisture is accumulated faster within the boundary layer during shorter drydowns, with longer drydowns representing slower, moisture-limited growth. Drydowns with wetter initial soil moisture will sustain stronger moistening within and above the boundary layer, accelerating buoyancy growth and convective potential toward the next storm. These results provide observational evidence linking surface flux evolution to boundary layer thermodynamics and offer a process-level benchmark for evaluating coupled L-A representations in models and demonstrating the influence of soil moisture on short-term weather forecasting skill.

Zhang, M. S. [Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (M

Mesoscale analysis of VAS 6.7 micron image data for several case studies

Several case studies are examined in an attempt to relate Visible infrared spin scan radiometers Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) water vapor channel radiance data to atmospheric moisture. Since the 6.7 micrometer channel detects radiation emitted by atmospheric water vapor from a rather thick layer, a scheme is developed which weighted rawinsonde observations of relative humidity in a similar manner. A comparison of the two fields (weighted relative humidity values from gridded rawinsonde observations and the VAS water vapor image) indicates that even when mesoscale data are used, the technique only presented a smooth representation of the radiance field. This weighting function is dependent on both the temperature and moisture distribution of the atmosphere. Cross sections of relative humidity from the mesoscale rawinsondes are produced which sliced the water vapor imagery in particularly interesting regions (areas of high and low blackbody temperatures). Comparisons are then made between the cross sections and the variations in the VAS radiance data along the cross section line. Bright regions in the water vapor imagery (cold blackbody temperatures) are often associated with thin layers of high relative humidity or thick layers of only moderately moist air. The reverse also applies, i.e., dark regions (warm blackbody temperatures) in the imagery corresponded well with very dry regions in the cross sections.

Jedlovec, G. J.

Mesoscale analysis of 6.7 micron image data from the VISSR Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) for several case studies

Several case studies are examined in an attempt to relate Visible infrared spin scan radiometers Atmospheric Sounder (VAS) water vapor channel radiance data to atmospheric moisture. Since the 6.7 micrometer channel detects radiation emitted by atmospheric water vapor from a rather thick layer, a scheme is developed which weighted rawinsonde observations of relative humidity in a similar manner. A comparison of the two fields (weighted relative humidity values from gridded rawinsonde observations and the VAS water vapor image) indicates that even when mesoscale data are used, the technique only presented a smooth representation of the radiance field. This weighting function is dependent on both the temperature and moisture distribution of the atmosphere. Cross sections of relative humidity from the mesoscale rawinsondes are produced which sliced the water vapor imagery in particularly interesting regions (areas of high and low blackbody temperatures). Comparisons are then made between the cross sections and the variations in the VAS radiance data along the cross section line. Bright regions in the water vapor imagery (cold blackbody temperatures) are often associated with thin layers of high relative humidity or thick layers of only moderately moist air. The reverse also applies, i.e., dark regions (warm blackbody temperatures) in the imagery corresponded well with very dry regions in the cross sections.

Jedlovec, G. J.