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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Designing Monte Carlo Simulation and an Optimal Machine Learning to Optimize and Model Space Missions

This paper investigates applying artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms to attitude control system of satellites to optimally tune the controller using high performance computing. This methodology is applied to the Virtual Telescope for X-ray Observation mission, which is a precise formation of two separate spacecraft observing multiple objects in the space in the X-ray domain. The mission is divided into phases based on the instrumentation and the mission goal. To reach an stable precise formation robust to stochastic slew and slew rate (i.e., Euler angles and angular velocities) in a minimal constrained time T , consumed energy of the attitude control system, denoted as E, and root-mean-square state error of attitude control system, denoted as e, are minimized. Monte-Carlo simulation is used for the sensitivity analysis of optimization and designing a controller. Deep neural networks (DNN), Gaussian processes (GP), and support vector regression (SVR) learn this optimization as a surrogate model, while their hyperparameters are optimized in a novel approach. THETA supercomputer at Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) is used for optimizing the hyperparameters of DNN. The surrogate model meets the requirements of the mission, and it shows a better performance over the optimization and Monte-Carlo. The optimal DNN can satisfy the mission requirements e and T while reducing E for 90% compared to the other given methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Fostering Computational Thinking within Elementary Classrooms through a Research-Practice Partnership: A Strategy for Broadening Participation in Computer Science

This paper describes a research-practice partnership involving twenty elementary teachers and a support team of university researchers and K-12 learning specialists. Over five years, the partnership explored ways to highlight and to expand computational thinking within math and science instruction. The project sought to increase student awareness, confidence, and fluency with computational thinking as a problem-solving approach, with particular attention to students from groups historically underrepresented in computer science. Based on feedback from across the partnership – together with analysis of student attitude and problem-solving data – this experience report identifies successes, challenges, and recommendations for future study.

Broadening participation↗

The Computational Analysis of a Generic Hypersonic Store Separation

Many current hypersonic vehicles involve a main vehicle from which components separate during flight and presents simulation challenges such as shock-shock interactions, highly nonlinear interactions, and shock wave boundary layer interactions. These aerodynamic phenomena influence the attitude and trajectory of each object, which needs to be understood before large-scale experiments can be run. To gain a generic understanding of the process, high-fidelity Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solutions are performed on a conical vehicle geometry passing through an oblique shock wave that is representative of different configurations and scenarios. Trajectory and applied forces are tracked and show the vehicle’s dynamics are predominantly the result of differential flow incidence angles causing a strong shock; this leads to a large pressure increase over a fraction of the vehicle, which influences pitch. The vehicle appears to follow conventional stability theory with detached eddy simulation and small disturbances in initial attitude shown to have minimal influence on the scenario.

Savery, Ryan↗

A Chip-Scale Oscillation-Mode Optomechanical Inertial Sensor Near the Thermodynamical Limits

Modern navigation systems integrate the global positioning system (GPS) with an inertial navigation system (INS), which complement each other for correct attitude and velocity determination. Here, the core of the INS integrates accelerometers and gyroscopes used to measure forces and angular rate in the vehicular inertial reference frame. With the help of gyroscopes and by integrating the acceleration to compute velocity and distance, precision and compact accelerometers with sufficient accuracy can provide small–error location determination. Solid–state implementations, through coherent readout, can provide a platform for high performance acceleration detection. In contrast to prior accelerometers using piezoelectric or capacitive readout techniques, optical readout provides narrow–linewidth high–sensitivity laser detection along with low–noise resonant optomechanical transduction near the thermodynamical limits. Here an optomechanical inertial sensor with an 8.2 µg Hz –1/2 velocity random walk (VRW) at an acquisition rate of 100 Hz and 50.9 µg bias instability is demonstrated, suitable for applications, such as, inertial navigation, inclination sensing, platform stabilization, and/or wearable device motion detection. Driven into optomechanical sustained–oscillation, the slot photonic crystal cavity provides radio–frequency readout of the optically–driven transduction with an enhanced 625 µg Hz –1 sensitivity. Measuring the optomechanically–stiffened oscillation shift, instead of the optical transmission shift, provides a 220× VRW enhancement over pre–oscillation mode detection.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Agent-Based Modeling for the Circular Economy: Lessons Learned From Three Case Studies

The circular economy (CE) aims at decoupling human activities from resource use, creating wealth in the process. Recently, many scholars have questioned the link between increased circularity and sustainability, resulting in many methodological approaches being developed for that purpose. This presentation summarizes the insights gained from the application of agent-based modeling (ABM) to study the techno-economic and social conditions promoting circularity and sustainability of three technologies: photovoltaic (PV) modules, hard disk drives (HDDs), and wind blades. Four main categories of agents are defined in the ABM: asset owners, service providers (e.g., refurbishers), recyclers, and manufacturers. Two main CE strategies are represented: lifetime extension (through repair or reuse) and recycling. The developed models start by projecting installed capacities and end-of-life (EOL) quantities. Then the theory of planned behavior - a social psychology model explaining behavior adoption based on attitude, peer influence, and costs - is used to model the asset owners' EOL decision (i.e., landfill, recycle or extend the lifetime of the asset). Then, the quantities of assets flowing to the recycler and service provider agents and quantities of materials flowing to manufacturers are computed. Recyclers' economies of scale are dynamically modeled, and the value generated by the CE strategies for the recyclers, service providers, and manufacturers is computed within the model. When data are available, avoided greenhouse gas emissions resulting from the CE strategies adoption are calculated exogenously from the ABM simulations. Results show that with improved used PV modules warranties, the reuse CE strategy adoption increases from 1% to 23% between 2020 and 2050. Similarly, improved standards could enhance HDDs end-users trust in data-wiping - a prerequisite to reuse - leading to a 3-fold increase in the reuse rate and avoid about 5 million tons of CO2 eq by 2050. Regarding wind blades, 5-15 years lifetime extension could reduce EOL blade quantities by 13%. High costs and logistic issues prevent blades from being recycled in greater quantities. One insight from the case studies is the necessity to have mature secondary markets for reuse to be a viable option. Interestingly, PV reuse is limited by the willingness of PV owners to purchase used modules (on the demand side), while HDDs reuse is constrained by the lack of trust toward data-wiping (limiting the supply of used HDDs). The six limits of the CE concepts presented by Korhonen et al. (2018) are finally used to interpret the results. The HDD case study is an exemplary lock-in, where the first accepted practice (shredding) retains most of the market. The PV results illustrate the technical limitation to reuse, as the growing demand cannot be supplied entirely with used PV modules. The wind case study shows the relevance of clearly defining physical flows - what type of waste should wind blades be considered, how should they be transported and landfilled? - a crucial consideration that also applies to PV modules. Finally, the three case studies highlight the relevance of studying a technology's technical, economic, and market material efficiency potentials altogether and the potential benefit of coupling ABM to life cycle assessment.

agent-based modeling↗

On the Error Covariance Correction Step of an ESKF Attitude Update

The attitude states of an error-state Kalman filter (ESKF) behave differently than most other states in the system due to their multiplicative (rather than additive) nature. One way in which they differ is an error covariance correction step after an ESKF error reset, which is not required for, for example, position and velocity states. This covariance correction step is not intuitive, and it has only been recently derived for coordinate transform matrices. The author of this memo, however, found the provided derivation in [1] confusing due to a lack of clarity surrounding the invoked reference frames, and clarity is required as there are at least 4 different ways to parameterize small-angle attitude errors in an ESKF. Furthermore, while reproducing the work, the author of this memo found a more straightforward derivation that provides additional insight into the correction step. This memo offers a derivation of the attitude error covariance correction step of an ESKF, which pays specific attention to the coordinate reference frames.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

North Dakota Integrated Carbon Storage Complex Feasibility Study. Final report

In spring 2017, the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) initiated an effort to determine the feasibility of developing a commercial-scale CO 2 geologic storage complex able to store 50+ million tonnes (Mt) of CO 2 in central North Dakota safely, permanently, and economically. The objective was to fulfill the goals of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Carbon Storage Assurance Facility Enterprise (CarbonSAFE) Initiative and address technical and nontechnical challenges specific to commercial-scale deployment of a CO2 storage project. The findings clearly show that the concept of capturing CO 2 from a lignite-fired electrical generation facility in central North Dakota and safely and permanently storing the CO 2 in the deep subsurface is indeed technically, economically, and socially feasible. This project evaluated two study areas and their respective geologic storage complexes located adjacent to separate coal-fired facilities in North Dakota: the Basin Electric Power Cooperative (BEPC)-owned Great Plains Synfuels Plant (GPSP) and the Minnkota Power Cooperative (Minnkota)-owned Milton R. Young Station (MRYS). These locations, one with CO 2 capture in place and an existing CO 2 pipeline, are bolstered by progressive North Dakota pore space ownership and long-term liability laws. These elements and a motivated team created an ideal synergistic scenario for ensuring success of the CarbonSAFE Initiative and promoting North Dakota’s statewide vision for carbon management. The project included drilling two new geologic characterization wells, integrating an existing 3-D seismic survey, creating a geologic model subsequently used for injection simulation, a risk assessment, public outreach, and generating a site development plan based on results. In addition, the performance of select National Risk Assessment Partnership tools was evaluated. The geologic characterization wells were drilled ~5600 feet deep to the Broom Creek Formation; ~350 feet of core was retrieved from each well. The core included the Broom Creek (targeted injection zone) and a portion of the overlying Opeche Shale (seal). The Flemmer-1 well, west of Beulah, North Dakota, yielded 169 feet of sandstone. The BNI-1 well located south of Center, North Dakota, yielded 124 feet of sandstone. In each case, laboratory analysis of the sandstone showed permeability in the 300–1000-mD range, with porosity of 20%–30%. The Flemmer-1 well was sited within the boundaries of an existing 3-D seismic survey. Colocating the well with the seismic survey maximized the relationship between new and legacy data and developed a first-of-its-kind interpretation of the geologic fabric of the Broom Creek. Geologic characterization data were integrated into a 5544-mi 2 geocellular model that encompassed both new wells and stratigraphy from the surface to the Amsden Formation (underlying the Broom Creek). The model was later expanded vertically to include the deeper Black Island–Deadwood interval to examine its potential viability as a storage target. The geocellular model provided the foundation for dynamic simulation of CO 2 into the Broom Creek. Results of the simulation suggest that the Broom Creek could accept the DOE target rate of 2 Mt/yr of CO 2 into as few as two wells. To bracket the expected capture from MRYS, simulations were also investigated for a 4-Mt/yr rate near MRYS. Although more wells are needed (two additional), the Broom Creek still has the storage resource to accept the CO 2 at the increased rate. A risk assessment exercise was conducted to identify and assess technical and nontechnical risks that could prevent potential candidate storage complexes within the study area from serving as commercial storage sites. The assessment identified and evaluated six technical risk categories: 1) CO 2 injectivity, 2) storage capacity, 3) lateral migration of CO 2 , 4) lateral pressure propagation, 5) vertical migration of CO 2 or formation brine, and 6) induced seismicity. Following two rounds of analysis and scoring, no risks were determined to preclude continued efforts to develop carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) in central North Dakota. The risk assessment results will be used to guide future site characterization, modeling and simulation, and monitoring activities. A specific nontechnical strategic risk based on challenges that may be realized in amalgamation of pore space resulted in vertically expanding the geologic model to incorporate the potential for stacked storage in multiple saline reservoirs. By including the Black Island–Deadwood interval (the basal sedimentary reservoir in this region), the amalgamated areal extent could be reduced by as much as 45%. Working with a smaller geographic area reduces risks and costs associated with monitoring and pore space leasing. An economic evaluation incorporating capture; transport (<5 mi); Class VI wells; permitting; and monitoring, verification, and accounting suggests implementing commercial-scale CCUS is economically attractive if the federal tax benefits of 45Q are included. This is validated by Minnkota’s continued pursuit of CO 2 capture and geologic storage at MRYS through its Project Tundra initiative, indicating that there is a business case for CCUS in central North Dakota. Currently, North Dakota is the only state with underground injection control (UIC) Class VI primacy. Built into the North Dakota Century Code is a series of regulatory requirements that guide the process to obtain a Class VI CO 2 storage facility permit. As part of this project, a site development plan was compiled to assure compliance with North Dakota’s requirements to permit a commercial-scale CO 2 storage operation and includes a prospective time line encompassing a general breakdown of activities. In total, an estimated 30 months would be needed to execute the necessary steps to attain a North Dakota CO 2 storage facility permit. Outreach was an integral part of the project and encompassed any project-related activity that had contact or exposure beyond the project team. The goals of outreach were to foster an environment from which stakeholders could make informed decisions about the project and gauge community receptiveness to a CCUS project. A consistent set of messages and outreach products were developed in conjunction with an outreach advisory board that integrated project partners and team members. To gauge public acceptability of geologically storing CO 2 , 5611 households in the project area were invited to participate in an online survey. The survey results indicate that the public attitude regarding CCUS is neutral to positive, with strong sentiment that CO 2 capture and storage may be an approach to maintain the economic vitality of the region. To achieve project objectives, critical support in the form of financial backing, engineering evaluations, site access, outreach collaboration, operations data, risk assessment/evaluation, and software access was provided by BEPC, the North Dakota Industrial Commission Lignite Research Council, ALLETE Clean Energy, BNI Energy, North American Coal Corporation, Minnkota, Prairie Public Broadcasting, Computer Modelling Group Ltd., and Schlumberger.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

2001-2002 Southern California Regional Travel Survey

The 2001-2002 Southern California Regional Travel Survey collected data on household characteristics and travel behavior to update regional travel demand models. It covered six counties including Imperial, Los Angeles, Orange, Riverside, San Bernardino, and Ventura. The Southern California Association of Governments contracted with NuStats Partners to conduct the survey following the 2000 decennial census. Survey data collection occurred in 2001 and 2002 using computer-assisted telephone interviewing and travel diaries. Roughly 17,000 households completed the survey. An additional global positioning system (GPS) sample was taken for the purpose of auditing the self-reported diaries. Battelle provided data collection support for the GPS sample.

1Hz data↗

Quantifying the basic reproduction number and underestimated fraction of Mpox cases worldwide at the onset of the outbreak

In 2022, there was a global resurgence of mpox, with different clinical-epidemiological features compared with previous outbreaks. Sexual contact was hypothesized as the primary transmission route, and the community of men having sex with men (MSM) was disproportionately affected. Because of the stigma associated with sexually transmitted infections, the real burden of mpox could be masked. We quantified the basic reproduction number (R 0 ) and the underestimated fraction of mpox cases in 16 countries, from the onset of the outbreak until early September 2022, using Bayesian inference and a compartmentalized, risk-structured (high-/low-risk populations) and two-route (sexual/non-sexual transmission) mathematical model. Machine learning (ML) was harnessed to identify underestimation determinants. Estimated R 0 ranged between 1.37 (Canada) and 3.68 (Germany). The underestimation rates for the high- and low-risk populations varied between 25–93% and 65–85%, respectively. The estimated total number of mpox cases, relative to the reported cases, is highest in Colombia (3.60) and lowest in Canada (1.08). In the ML analysis, two clusters of countries could be identified, differing in terms of attitudes towards the 2SLGBTQIAP+ community and the importance of religion. Given the substantial mpox underestimation, surveillance should be enhanced, and country-specific campaigns against the stigmatization of MSM should be organized, leveraging community-based interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey

The 2010-2012 California Household Travel Survey (CHTS) was administered by the California Department of Transportation, which collected demographic and travel behavior characteristics for residents across the entire state. At the time, it was the largest such regional or statewide survey ever conducted in the United States. Detailed travel behavior information was obtained from more than 42,500 households via multiple data-collection methods, including computer-assisted telephone interviewing, online and mail surveys, wearable (7,574 participants) and in-vehicle (2,910 vehicles) global positioning system devices, and on-board diagnostic sensors that gathered data directly from a vehicle's engine. Details of personal travel behavior were gathered within the region of residence, inter-regionally within the state, and in adjoining states and Mexico. The survey sampling plan was designed to ensure an accurate representation of the entire population of the state. The CHTS included additional features, such as vehicle-acquisition decisions, parking choices, work schedules and flexibility, use of toll lanes/priced facilities, and walk and bicycle trips, to support advanced model development.

1Hz data↗

W2VPCA: A Machine Learning Method for Measuring Attitudes With Natural Language

Company strategy influences many decisions in freight transportation. Behavioral models of company decision-making therefore could benefit from including strategy variables. However, strategy is difficult to observe and quantify. Attitudinal surveys of company executives can be used to collect measurements of latent strategy to use in quantitative models. However, surveys are costly and burdensome. Text mining methods to collect measurements overcome these issues somewhat, but typically require manual intervention and ignore the context of words, which can be problematic. This study introduces a new machine learning method to generate strategy measurement data from existing big text data. The new method, called W2VPCA, combines Natural Language Processing and Principal Components Analysis. W2VPCA produces measurement data that serve as quantitative indicators of latent strategy in behavioral models. W2VPCA is unsupervised, data-driven, and uses information on word context. We apply W2VPCA to generate measurements of latent strategies using readily available, large-scale text data: annual company reports. The empirical measurements are used successfully to associate two latent strategies, one focusing on distribution and the other on products, with truck fleet and distribution center outsourcing decisions. The main empirical outcome is that the W2VPCA measurements outperform Bag-of-Words measurements in a psychometric analysis of latent firm strategies. While this study focuses on freight behavioral models, W2VPCA may also have applications in behavioral modeling in other domains.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

A cost and community perspective on the barriers to microbiome data reuse

Microbiome research is becoming a mature field with a wealth of data amassed from diverse ecosystems, yet the ability to fully leverage multi-omics data for reuse remains challenging. To provide a view into researchers’ behavior and attitudes towards data reuse, we surveyed over 700 microbiome researchers to evaluate data sharing and reuse challenges. We found that many researchers are impeded by difficulties with metadata records, challenges with processing and bioinformatics, and problems with data repository submissions. We also explored the cost constraints of data reuse at each step of the data reuse process to better understand “pain points” and to provide a more quantitative perspective from sixteen active researchers. The bioinformatics and data processing step was estimated to be the most time consuming, which aligns with some of the most frequently reported challenges from the community survey. From these two approaches, we present evidence-based recommendations for how to address data sharing and reuse challenges with concrete actions for future work.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

14 Steps to Creating Value in Cost and Schedule Resources for Nuclear Waste Management - 20188

While Waste Management budgets are shrinking, DOE required cost and schedule controls are becoming increasingly stringent. At the same time, there is a scarcity of adept, qualified, and competent projects controls staff who both understand nuclear waste management and are capable of addressing today's cost and schedule challenges. In response, we have developed a systematic approach to training and mentoring project controls staff. The approach is based on the observations and lessons learned on projects, both successful and unsuccessful, over the past 20 years. During that time, we evaluated staff development and used that experience to design a program that progresses the maturity, knowledge and experience of the individual. The program is based on the unique needs of cost and schedule specialists while incorporating the best leadership and managerial applications. The system is not limited to developing individual software skills, which is a primary focus of many project controls training programs. Instead, our system develops an individual's soft and hard skill sets. The system develops the user's skill, talent, attitude, and drive to do the best job possible. It focuses on all aspects of becoming a more productive technical team while accepting responsibility for individual growth. It also enhances the project controls team by setting up checks and balances that everyone is aware of and participates in. The system is based on 14 steps of increasing complexity in knowledge and application. The system clarifies roles, responsibilities and expectations. It helps eliminate uncertainty and reduces stress on staff and managers. It contains everyday routine actions and is simple to implement. It allows the development of a consistent rhythm to staff growth and development. Mastering the steps will allow the user to achieve excellence in cost and schedule control. The 14 steps are: 1 - Key Performance Objectives, 2 - Check Lists, 3 - Desktop Guides, 4 - System Description, 5 - Procedures, 6 - Software and On the Job Training (OTJ), 7 - Traceability Checks, 8 - Surveillances, 9 - 32 Criteria, 10 - The Contract, 11 - Customer/Government Guidance, 12 - Training and Mentoring Others, 13 - Master your weekly and daily schedules, 14 - Improving your interpersonal skills. Application and mastery of this system will produce better cost and schedule control results. Your project controls staff will write better reports, analyze data better, make better use of their time, and be more valuable to decision makers. If followed rigorously, our system will produce a great project controls team, which is invaluable to the success of each project. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗