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Results for “Availablity”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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Integrating renewal process modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure: Application to Loss of Coolant Accident (LOCA) frequency estimations in nuclear power plants

Renewal process modeling is used for the failure prediction of hardware components under periodic maintenance. While most studies utilized data-driven approaches to estimate the input parameters for renewal process models, this paper initiates a line of research to integrate renewal process modeling with probabilistic models of underlying mechanisms associated with physical degradation and maintenance. At this stage of the research, the methodology integrates Markov modeling with Probabilistic Physics-of-Failure (PPoF) models of degradation, while maintenance is treated by a data-driven approach. This methodology is valuable to obtain a more accurate estimation of component reliability and availablity, especially when (i) components are highly reliable, and failure data are limited, (ii) historical data are unreliable due to changes in design, operation, and maintenance, or (iii) advanced technologies have emerged limiting operational data. The methodology explicitly incorporates the underlying spatiotemporal causes of failure into the renewal model, allowing to rank the criticality of causal factors to improve maintenance and mitigation strategies. Although the new methodology is applicable for component reliability and availability analysis in diverse industries, this report demonstrates its value for estimating frequencies of a Loss-Of-Coolant Accident (LOCA), which is an initiating event in Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) of Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs).

42 ENGINEERING↗

On the Search for the Amino Acids on the Lunar Surface as it Relates to Other Extraterrestrial Bodies

The early search for the amino acids on the lunar surface fines indicated such a low amount of the amino acids that it was deemed insignifi cant. While the later studies seemed to depart in some ways from the earlier results, they were not pursued. In this paper we critically ev aluate the results from the Apollo missions from the new perspective with considerations of the sensitivity of the instrumentation availabl e at the time. We discuss the possible relevance of the lunar results to the findings of the amino acids on the surfaces of other extraterrestrial bodies, such as Mars.

Hoover, Richard B.↗

Information Security Analysis Using Game Theory and Simulation

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic simulations of Agent Based Models (ABMs). Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. Our approach addresses imperfect information and scalability that allows us to also address previous limitations of current stochastic game models. Such models only consider perfect information assuming that the defender is always able to detect attacks; assuming that the state transition probabilities are fixed before the game assuming that the players actions are always synchronous; and that most models are not scalable with the size and complexity of systems under consideration. Our use of ABMs yields results of selected experiments that demonstrate our proposed approach and provides a quantitative measure for realistic information systems and their related security scenarios.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

ID201202961, DOE S-124,539, Information Security Analysis Using Game Theory and Simulation

Information security analysis can be performed using game theory implemented in dynamic simulations of Agent Based Models (ABMs). Such simulations can be verified with the results from game theory analysis and further used to explore larger scale, real world scenarios involving multiple attackers, defenders, and information assets. Our approach addresses imperfect information and scalability that allows us to also address previous limitations of current stochastic game models. Such models only consider perfect information assuming that the defender is always able to detect attacks; assuming that the state transition probabilities are fixed before the game assuming that the players actions are always synchronous; and that most models are not scalable with the size and complexity of systems under consideration. Our use of ABMs yields results of selected experiments that demonstrate our proposed approach and provides a quantitative measure for realistic information systems and their related security scenarios.

Availablity↗

U.S. Patent Pending, Information Security Analysis Using Game Theory and Simulation, U.S. Patent Application No.: 14/097,840

Vulnerability in security of an information system is quantitatively predicted. The information system may receive malicious actions against its security and may receive corrective actions for restoring the security. A game oriented agent based model is constructed in a simulator application. The game ABM model represents security activity in the information system. The game ABM model has two opposing participants including an attacker and a defender, probabilistic game rules and allowable game states. A specified number of simulations are run and a probabilistic number of the plurality of allowable game states are reached in each simulation run. The probability of reaching a specified game state is unknown prior to running each simulation. Data generated during the game states is collected to determine a probability of one or more aspects of security in the information system.

Availablity↗

U.S. Patent Pending, Cyberspace Security System for Complex Systems, U.S. Patent Application No.: 14/134,949

A computer implemented method monetizes the security of a cyber-system in terms of losses each stakeholder may expect to lose if a security break down occurs. A non-transitory media stores instructions for generating a stake structure that includes costs that each stakeholder of a system would lose if the system failed to meet security requirements and generating a requirement structure that includes probabilities of failing requirements when computer components fails. The system generates a vulnerability model that includes probabilities of a component failing given threats materializing and generates a perpetrator model that includes probabilities of threats materializing. The system generates a dot product of the stakes structure, the requirement structure, the vulnerability model and the perpetrator model. The system can further be used to compare, contrast and evaluate alternative courses of actions best suited for the stakeholders and their requirements.

Availablity↗