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DOE OSTI2021

A Nonstationary and Non-Gaussian Moving Average Model for Solar Irradiance

Historically, power has flowed from large power plants to customers. Increasing penetration of distributed energy resources such as solar power from rooftop photovoltaic has made the distribution network a two-way-street with power being generated at the customer level. The incorporation of renewables introduces additional uncertainty and variability into the power grid. Distribution network operation studies are being adapted to include renewables; however, such studies require high quality solar irradiance data that adequately reflect realistic meteorological variability. Data from satellite-based products are spatially complete, but temporally coarse, whereas solar irradiances exhibit high frequency variation at very fine timescales. We propose a new stochastic method for temporally downscaling global horizontal irradiance (GHI) to 1 min resolution, but we do not consider the spatial aspect due to limited availability of the in situ irradiance measurements. Solar irradiance's first and second-order structures vary diurnally and seasonally, and our model adapts to such nonstationarity. Empirical irradiance data exhibits highly non-Gaussian behavior; we develop a nonstationary and non-Gaussian moving average model that is shown to capture realistic solar variability at multiple timescales. We also propose a new estimation scheme based on Cholesky factors of empirical autocovariance matrices, bypassing difficult and inaccessible likelihood-based approaches. The model is demonstrated for a case study of three locations that are located in diverse climates through the United States. The model is compared against competitors from the literature and is shown to provide better uncertainty and variability quantification on testing data.

Cholesky factor↗

DOE OSTI2021

Manipulating strong electromagnetic fields with the average transverse momentum of relativistic nuclear collisions

Abstract We show that an event-shape engineering based on the mean transverse momentum of charged hadrons, $$[p_t]$$ [ p t ] , provides an optimal handle on the strength of the magnetic field created in central heavy-ion collisions at high energy. This is established through quantitative evaluations of the correlation existing between the event-by-event magnetic field produced by the spectator protons in 5.02 TeV Pb + Pb collisions and the event-by-event $$[p_t]$$ [ p t ] at a given collision centrality. We argue that the event selection based on $$[p_t]$$ [ p t ] provides a better handle on the magnetic field than the more traditional selection based on the event ellipticities. Advantages brought by this new method for the experimental search of the chiral magnetic effect are discussed.

Giacalone, Giuliano (ORCID:0000000287761034)↗

DOE OSTI2023

A combined ensemble-volume average homogenization method for lattice structures with defects under dynamic and static loading

In the study of lattices structures, both experiments and numerical simulations are often conducted with small samples. Using combined ensemble and volume averaging, this work introduces a method to extract a macroscopic constitutive response of a lattice material from numerical simulations performed in periodic domains. The domain size needed to obtain statistically accurate results is investigated. Similar to molecular dynamics, the concept of the virial stress is introduced after homogenized equations are derived using the ensemble averaging method. Under static conditions, the virial stress is shown to agree with the volume averaged solid stress. Using the homogenization method, constitutive relations for this stress can be obtained from systems with uniform strains. Application of such obtained constitutive relations to more general cases results in an error proportional to the square of the ratio between the lattice length scale and the macroscopic length scale. Taking advantage of this property, numerical simulations are performed in systems with a uniform gradient of the average velocity. The volume average method is then used to accelerate convergence when studying lattices with defects. To avoid the artificial numerical time scale from the size of a representative volume element divided by the wave speed, a numerical scheme is developed to enforce a spatially uniform velocity gradient within the computational domain while allowing fluctuations of the velocity or displacement to develop naturally. To account for probability distribution of lattice defects, the stress is calculated as the ensemble-volume averaged value. For dynamic systems, energy dissipation properties are also studied.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multilevel Parareal Algorithm with Averaging for Oscillatory Problems

The present study is an extension of the work done by Peddle, Haut, and Wingate and Haut and Wingate, where a two-level Parareal method with mapping and averaging is examined. The method proposed in this paper is a multilevel Parareal method with arbitrarily many levels, which is not restricted to the two-level case. We give an asymptotic error estimate which reduces to the two-level estimate for the case when only two levels are considered. Introducing more than two levels has important consequences for the averaging procedure, as we choose separate averaging windows for each of the different levels, which is an additional new feature of the present study. The different averaging windows make the proposed method especially appropriate for nonlinear multiscale problems, because we can introduce a level for each intrinsic scale of the problem and adapt the averaging procedure such that we reproduce the behavior of the model on the particular scale resolved by the level. The method is applied to nonlinear differential equations. The nonlinearities can generate a range of frequencies in the problem. The computational cost of the new method is investigated and studied on several examples.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A practical method for modeling temporally-averaged ocean wave frequency-directional spectra for characterizing wave energy climates

Wave energy resource characterization investigations have been hindered because frequency-directional wave spectra are not broadly available for many coastal regions due to the insufficient spatial coverage of buoy observation networks and spectral wave model hindcast outputs. We address this problem by developing and validating a practical method for approximating temporally-averaged frequency-directional wave spectra averaged over periods of months or years from bulk wave parameters, which are available at a much greater coverage and resolution than frequency-directional wave spectra. While the temporally averaged frequency-directional wave spectrum over these periods cannot be used for analyzing a single sea state, it aggregates multiple sea states, identifies dominant wave energy systems representing wave climate, and resolves their spectral characteristics. Therefore, modelling temporally averaged frequency-directional wave spectra is of great value for planning and designing wave energy projects, e.g., resource characterization, site assessment, and conceptual design of wave energy converters. Temporally-averaged frequency-directional wave spectra and related important wave energy parameters approximated using this method are found to be more accurate than commonly used parametric wave spectrum models. This method can be applied to a wide range of wave climates given its universality and high accuracy. Also, the availability of bulk wave parameters from multi-decade high-resolution wave model hindcasts is increasing.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2022

Spatially Averaged Ice Contents of Ice-Wedge Polygon Cross-Sections to 3-m Depth, July 2013, Utqiagvik, Alaska

This dataset contains spatially averaged estimates of ice content (volume percent) for two-dimensional cross-sectional profiles (from trough center to trough center to a depth of 3 meters) of low- and flat-centered ice-wedge polygons (three of each type) located near Utqiagvik, Alaska. A combination of soil pits, trenches, and cores were used to describe, sample, and map the cross-section stratigraphy of soil horizons and ice wedges for each polygon at 6 depth intervals. Observed soil horizons were assigned to four types with increasing amounts of organic components (mineral, mineral/organic, organic/mineral, and organic). The average ice contents of each soil horizon type below the permafrost boundary and wedge ice were weighted by their cross-sectional area fractions to calculate spatially averaged estimates of ice content for each polygon. In the active layer, spatially averaged estimates of volumetric water contents were similarly determined and reported here as “ice” content to enable estimates of the soil’s structurally competent porosity and excess ice in permafrost layers. In this dataset, the file AK13_ice_contents.csv includes cross-sectional area fractions and spatially averaged ice contents for soil layers and horizon types at the six depth intervals. The file AK13_permafrost_ice_fractions.csv contains the calculated partitioning of ice contents into pore ice and excess ice fractions for the three permafrost-dominated depth intervals. In addition, there is a data dictionary file for each of these data files and a file-level metadata file. These data were generated by the Department of Energy’s Soil Carbon Response to Environmental Change Scientific Focus Area and were used as inputs to model simulations examining the consequences of thaw-affected subsidence and microtopography change on active layer thickness of low-relief polygonal tundra landscapes in a warming Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Mean Flow from Phase Averages in the 2D Boussinesq Equations

The atmosphere and ocean are described by highly oscillatory PDEs that challenge both our understanding of their dynamics and their numerical approximation. This paper presents a preliminary numerical study of one type of phase averaging applied to mean flows in the 2D Boussinesq equations that also has application to numerical methods. The phase averaging technique, well-known in dynamical systems theory, relies on a mapping using the exponential operator, and then an averaging over the phase. The exponential operator has connections to the Craya–Herring basis pioneered by Jack Herring to study the fluid dynamics of oscillatory, nonlinear fluid dynamics. In this paper, we perform numerical experiments to study the effect of this averaging technique on the time evolution of the solution. We explore its potential as a definition for mean flows. We also show that, as expected from theory, the phase-averaging method can reduce the magnitude of the time rate of change in the PDEs, making them potentially suitable for time stepping methods.

Wingate, Beth A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Waffle Homes: Utilizing Aerial Imagery of Unfinished Buildings to Determine Average Room Size

A primary function of the Population Density Tables Project (PDT) at Oak Ridge National Laboratory is to produce residential population densities per 1000 sq. ft. for each country and their associated first-level administrative units. This is accomplished by utilizing the average size of different types of dwelling areas (urban, rural, single-family, multi-family, etc.) and the average household size provided by a country’s Census or statistical bureau records. This data is available for the majority of Europe, North America, and large swathes of Asia, but is less easily found in Africa and South America. In these regions, Censuses generally report dwelling area by number of rooms, which poses the challenging question of how we can translate number of rooms to dwelling size when no dwelling size areas are available with which to compare. Using sub-meter resolution satellite imagery of Accra, Ghana, this challenge can be tackled using imagery of roofless buildings currently under construction that show the interior floor plan of the dwelling. A sample of buildings from the different neighborhoods of Accra can be digitized to provide an estimate and range of average room sizes of dwellings. This average room size can then be translated to a total dwelling area using the "number of rooms occupied by a household" variable from the Ghanaian Census. This intermediate step between average dwelling size and number of rooms occupied, fills the missing link that prevents PDT from continually producing new population densities for countries where dwelling size is unavailable through any official means.

Woody, Carson↗

DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic theory of particle-in-cell simulation plasma and the ensemble averaging technique

Abstract We derive the kinetic theory of fluctuations in physically and numerically stable particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations of electrostatic plasmas. The starting point is the single-time correlation at the start of the simulation between the statistical fluctuations of the weighted densities of macroparticle centers in the plasma particle phase-space. The fluctuations are associated with different initial conditions, typically due to the random initial conditions (in velocity space) of the macroparticles/simulation plasma, assigned according to their initial distribution of probability. The single-time correlations at all time steps and in each spatial grid cell are then determined from the Laplace–Fourier transforms of the discretized Klimontovich-like equation for the macroparticles and Maxwell’s equations for the fields, as computed by modern PIC codes. We recover the expressions for the electrostatic field and the plasma particle density fluctuation autocorrelation spectra as well as the kinetic equations describing the average evolution of PIC-simulated plasma particles, first derived by Langdon (1970b Proc. 4th Conf. Numerical Simulation of Plasmas ) using a test macroparticle approach perturbing a discretized Vlasovian plasma and then averaging the obtained physical quantity over the initial macroparticle velocity distribution. We generalize and extend these results to the modern algorithms in PIC codes using arbitrary macroparticle weights. Analytical estimates of statistical fluctuation amplitudes are derived as a function of the plasma simulation parameters, using the central limit theorem in the limit of a large number of macroparticles per cell. The theory is then used to analyze the ensemble averaging technique of PIC simulations where statistical averages are performed over ensembles of PIC simulations, modeling the same plasma physics problem but using different statistical realizations of the initial distribution functions of the macroparticles. This method is illustrated by linear Landau damping uncovering (from noise, which is usually considered numerical) the physical fluctuations driven by a single small amplitude electrostatic wave perturbing a PIC simulation plasma in equilibrium.

fluctuations correlations↗

DOE OSTI2024

Average and Marginal Capacity Credit Values of Renewable Energy and Battery Storage in the United States Power System

As deployment of renewable resources and storage continue to significantly grow in the coming decades, these technologies will play increasingly important roles in maintaining power systems' resource adequacy. Few analyses so far offer comprehensive comparisons of forward-looking average and marginal capacity credits of variable renewable energy and storage in the U.S. interconnections across a wide range of possible futures. To fill this research gap, we quantify the average and marginal capacity credits of solar PV, onshore and offshore wind, and batteries between 2026 and 2050 across the U.S power systems to examine the temporal trends, spatial patterns, and trade-offs between these two capacity accreditation approaches. Across technologies, capacity credits of solar PV most clearly follow downward trends over time, reflecting the significant rise in solar PV generation share as the grid decarbonizes. While battery storages' generation shares also rise significantly over time, their capacity credits always remain stably high due to their capabilities to be dispatched strategically during critical periods to maintain reliability. On the other hand, capacity credits of wind technologies in general follow slight upward trends as their generation shares level off. There are strong spatial variabilities of both average and marginal capacity credits across technologies, but capacity credits of solar PV displaying the most obvious spatial patterns with high capacity credits concentrating in wind-rich, solar-poor regions in SPP, PJM, and MISO, suggesting potential reliability benefits of interconnection-wide planning for renewable energy deployments. Additionally, except for offshore wind, average capacity credits of all other renewable technologies tend to be higher than their marginal capacity credits, indicating that existing renewable resources tend to be accredited higher than new resources at almost any time.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

A precision test of averaging in AdS/CFT

We reconsider the role of wormholes in the AdS/CFT correspondence. We focus on Euclidean wormholes that connect two asymptotically AdS or hyperbolic regions with $\mathbb{S}$ 1 × $\mathbb{S}$ d-1 boundary. There is no solution to Einstein’s equations of this sort, as the wormholes possess a modulus that runs to infinity. To find on-shell wormholes we must stabilize this modulus, which we can do by fixing the total energy on the two boundaries. Such a wormhole gives the saddle point approximation to a non-standard problem in quantum gravity, where we fix two asymptotic boundaries and constrain the common energy. Crucially the dual quantity does not factorize even when the bulk is dual to a single CFT, on account of the fixed energy constraint. From this quantity we extract a smeared version of the microcanonical spectral form factor. For a chaotic theory this quantity is self-averaging, i.e. well-approximated by averaging over energy windows, or over coupling constants. We go on to give a precision test involving the microcanonical spectral form factor where the two replicas have slightly different coupling constants. In chaotic theories this form factor is known to smoothly decay at a rate universally predicted in terms of one replica physics, provided that there is an average either over a window or over couplings. We compute the expected decay rate for holographic theories, and the form factor from a wormhole, and the two exactly agree for a wide range of two-derivative effective field theories in AdS. This gives a precision test of averaging in AdS/CFT. Our results interpret a number of confusing facts about wormholes and factorization in AdS and suggest that we should regard gravitational effective field theory as a mesoscopic description, analogous to semiclassical mesoscopic descriptions of quantum chaotic systems.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Turbulence-induced bias in time-averaged laser absorption tomography of correlated concentration and temperature fields with a first-order correction

The influence of correlated scalar fluctuations on time-averaged laser absorption tomography measurements of temperature and species in a piloted turbulent premixed flame was examined using a coupled spectroscopic and fluid-dynamic analysis. To understand bias associated with turbulence, spatio-temporally resolved temperature and species mole fraction profiles predicted by large eddy simulations (LES) were used to synthetically generate time-resolved line-of-sight absorption measurements at short time scales (microsecond) to reflect the unsteady nature of a canonical jet burner across various transverse measurement planes. Inversion methods were employed on the time-averaged line-of-sight data to produce radially-resolved temperature and mole fraction profiles, analogous to those produced by laser absorption tomography performed on a time-averaged axisymmetric flowfield. It is shown that bias in the measurements compared to true time-averaged scalar fields is a function primarily of temperature dependence in absorptivity and non-zero correlation between temperature and species concentration scalars. Finally, a first-order correction to tomography measurements is proposed to account for the bias based on estimated correlations and the known spectroscopic parameters of the probed absorption transitions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Bounce-averaged theory in arbitrary multi-well plasmas: solution domains and the graph structure of their connections

Bounce-averaged theories provide a framework for simulating relatively slow processes, such as collisional transport and quasilinear diffusion, by averaging these processes over the fast periodic motions of a particle on a closed orbit. This procedure dramatically increases the characteristic time scale and reduces the dimensionality of the modelled system. The natural coordinates for such calculations are the constants of motion (COM) of the fast particle motion, which by definition do not change during an orbit. However, for sufficiently complicated fields – particularly in the presence of local maxima of the electric potential and magnetic field – the COM are not sufficient to specify the particle trajectory. In such cases, multiple domains in COM space must be used to solve the problem, with boundary conditions enforced between the domains to ensure continuity and particle conservation. Previously, these domains have been imposed by hand, or by recognising local maxima in the fields, limiting the flexibility of bounce-averaged simulations. Here, we present a general set of conditions for identifying consistent domains and the boundary condition connections between the domains, allowing the application of bounce-averaged theories in arbitrarily complicated and dynamically evolving electromagnetic field geometries. We also show how the connections between the domains can be represented by a directed graph, which can help to succinctly represent the trajectory bifurcation structure.

fusion plasma↗

DOE OSTI2021

The Average Shape of Sea Ice Ridge Keels

Through analysis of over 64,000 ridge profiles identified from moored upward-looking sonars, we identify a well-defined average shape of pressure ridge keels that is concave or cusped, not triangular as widely assumed in other literature. On the basis of this average shape, we put forward a new, dimensional-definition, of a pressure ridge cross-section that follows a negative exponential form and allows an average pressure ridge cross section to be constructed with knowledge or choice of a single parameter. The horizonal asymptote of the profile represents the draft of the “background” ice in which the ridge is embedded. The draft of this background ice scales with keel depth and is typically greater than can be accounted through thermodynamic growth, indicating that ridges tend to be embedded in fields of mechanically thickened rubble. Using a variational ridge model we simulated keel shapes for a range of ridge building conditions. Here, the model results agree well with the observations and indicate the cusped shape of an average ridge profile arises from the varying angle of horizontal shear in the ice cover when ridges form. The modeling results also explain the elongated tail of the area draft distribution of the pack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Time‐And‐Space Averaging Applied to Intermittent Multiphase Flow Experiments

Abstract Various researchers have studied fluctuations in pore‐scale phase occupancy during multiphase flow in porous media using synchrotron‐based X‐ray microcomputed tomography (micro‐CT). However, the impact of these fluctuations on the concept of a representative volume is not yet fully understood. In this study, we performed spatial and temporal averaging of multiphase flow experiments visualized with synchrotron‐based micro‐CT, focusing on oil saturation as the key parameter to determine a representative time‐and‐space average. Our findings revealed that a saturation value representative of both time and space was achieved during fractional flow experiments in drainage mode with fractional flows of 0.8, 0.5, and 0.3. Furthermore, we computed a range of relative permeabilities on the basis of whether momentaneous saturation or time‐and‐space averaged saturation was utilized for direct simulation. Our results highlighted the importance of time‐and‐space averaging in determining a representative relative permeability and indicated that the temporal and spatial scales covered in a typical micro‐CT flow experiment were sufficient to obtain a representative saturation value for sandstone rock under intermittent flow conditions.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved uranium isotopic ratio determinations for the liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge orbitrap mass spectrometer by use of moving average processing

The liquid sampling-atmospheric pressure glow discharge (LS-APGD) is a versatile combined atomic and molecular (CAM) ionization source capable of ionizing elemental species, small polar compounds, low-polarity polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons, and proteins. While the LS-APGD has been proven capable of determining the 235U/238U isotope ratio in enriched and natural uranium, recent efforts have strived to reduce the analysis time of individual measurements by employing higher-order data processing techniques, specifically, moving average methods. Additionally, the use of a moving average (of data windows of various widths) improves the precision of the ratio measurements and reduces the number of scans needed to be collected to generate high-precision results. Additionally, use of the moving average minimizes the quantity of sample that needs to be analyzed while reducing the measurement time. These reductions have allowed isotope ratio (IR) determinations to be made using injections instead of direct infusion of the analyte. For example, employing a 40-point window width in the moving average to direct infusion data reduced the percent relative standard deviation (% RSD) of the 235U/238U values from 3.4% to 0.5%. For the injection of a 100 μL aliquot, the % RSD was reduced from 5.3% to 0.7%.

74 ATOMIC AND MOLECULAR PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Accuracy of the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation for laser-plasma accelerator modeling

Reliable modeling of laser-plasma accelerators, where a short and intense laser pulse propagates in an underdense plasma over long distances, is a computationally challenging task. This is due to the great disparity among the scales involved in the modeling, ranging from the micrometer scale of the laser wavelength to, for instance, the meter scale of the laser-plasma interaction length for a multi-GeV-class laser-plasma accelerator. To reduce such imbalance, the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation may be used, where the plasma particle dynamics is analytically averaged over the laser frequency, and only spatiotemporal scales associated with the laser envelope are retained in the calculations, resulting in significant computational savings. Here, we characterize the accuracy and robustness of the time-averaged ponderomotive approximation for a range of laser parameters of interest for present and future laser-plasma accelerators, and we show that the error introduced by the averaging process is small in all relevant cases.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Bayesian model averaging for analysis of lattice field theory results

Statistical modeling is a key component in the extraction of physical results from lattice field theory calculations. Although the general models used are often strongly motivated by physics, many model variations can frequently be considered for the same lattice data. Model averaging, which amounts to a probability-weighted average over all model variations, can incorporate systematic errors associated with model choice without being overly conservative. We discuss the framework of model averaging from the perspective of Bayesian statistics, and give useful formulae and approximations for the particular case of least-squares fitting, commonly used in modeling lattice results. In addition, we frame the common problem of data subset selection (e.g. choice of minimum and maximum time separation for fitting a two-point correlation function) as a model selection problem and study model averaging as a straightforward alternative to manual selection of fit ranges. Numerical examples involving both mock and real lattice data are given.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗